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Ultimate IDP Survivor Finals (1 Viewer)

Jene Bramel

Footballguy
Ultimate IDP Survivor Finals (MFL LINK HERE)

**A single 12 team league drafting individual defensive players only consisting of the three surviving teams from each of the four original Leg 1 leagues. Draft slots will be awarded according to performance in the three Leg 1 leagues. The top scoring teams from each Leg 1 league will draft in slots 1-4, with the exact order to be determined randomly. Random draws will take place for each "bucket" of the next highest scoring team from each league.

**Defensive scoring will be balanced IDP scoring. Scoring system will be sent to all potential league participants well in advance (see below). All defensive lineups will be 2DE/1DT/3LB/2CB/2S with a single flex (any position) to total 11 defensive starters. All owners will draft 24 players (no positional restrictions) by slow MFL draft to begin on Tuesday morning following Week 8 of the NFL season. Expect a 6 hour clock with some downtime overnight. Should the draft not be complete by Saturday noon ET of that week, all owners will be expected to be available (in person or by predraft function) to finish the draft in a live draft room (TBD) at noon ET Saturday. Please consider making alternate arrangements if you won't be able to draft reasonably quickly during weekdays.

**Owners will not submit lineups. The best available lineup will be scored from your entire roster of players.

**The lowest scoring teams will be voted off, in survivor style, as follows. Two teams will be voted off after Week 10 based on cumulative two week scoring in that period. Two teams will be voted off after Weeks 11, 12 and 13. The surviving four teams will then accumulate points between Weeks 14 and 16 and the team with the highest cumulative three week point total will be crowned the Ultimate IDP Survivor.

In addition to the bragging rights of making it to the final league, David Dodds has graciously offered the following prizes:

1st prize: Lifetime subscription, FBG Hoodie, FBG hat + FBG duffle bag + $250 cash

2nd prize: 3 year subscription, FBG Hoodie + $125 cash

3rd prize: 3 year subscription, FBG T-shirt + $75 cash

4th prize: 3 year subscription, FBG T-shirt + $50 cash

5th - 8th prizes: 1 year subscription and choice of FBG shirt or hat

Scoring:

Solo tackle – 1.5

Assisted tackle – 0.75

Sack – 5

Pass Defensed – 1.5

INT – 5

FF – 4

FR – 4

All TDs – 6

Safety – 2

 
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Carryover post from Leg 1 thread.

Standings after Week 7. The final two teams will be eliminated from each league after Week 8.

A few notes: We will start the draft of the final 12 team league as soon as I can get the draft order set after MNF next week. I will start a new Final League thread sometime today with the full rule set and the logistics of next week's draft. Make sure that you check that thread for updates this week.

League 1

272.05 Anthony Borbely

268.55 Rozelle

262.00 tec79

-------------------------------

234.85 SunTzu

222.90 Polyethylene Bag

Less than 50 points separate all five teams here. A monster week from any of these teams next week will earn a top four pick in the final draft.

League 2

287.80 Jene Bramel

254.70 Fullback Fro

244.95 Chainz

-------------------------------

181.40 Tick

155.10 Dan Fouts

Barring a major catastrophe, Bramel should be through here with a top four pick. Fro and Chainz have sizable cushions, but could still lose a slot with a monster week from Tick or Fouts.

League 3

260.70 buck56

243.55 SkyRattlers

234.35 Chaos Commish

-------------------------------

230.00 44orange

229.10 tazinib1

Another free-for-all for slots here.

League 4

284.50 Sigmund Bloom

251.65 BennyBeaver

213.85 Crippler

-------------------------------

186.15 TheManWithNoName

176.15 FightingWombat

Bloom is very likely through here, and has what looks to be a hammerlock on a top four pick next week. BennyBeaver should get through, too, barring a big week from everyone below him.

 
Here’s how the Leg 1 leagues stand entering MNF.

Please remember, I’ll be opening the draft very soon after the game ends tonight. No one is under any obligation to draft before 8am ET Tuesday AM, when I’ll turn a 6 hour clock on. Those remaining have had more than a week to build a draft board and plan around a potential timer. The timer will be shortened to one minute at noon ET on Saturday if we have not finished the draft by then. Please see the initial post for full rules and prize information.

All final league participants will get an email tonight with the new MFL league address and password. You’ll also be receiving a dice roll to determine your random draft position. The top total points advancers in each league will randomly roll for draft slots 1-4, the second highest total points advancers from each league 5-8 and the lowest total points advancers from each league 9-12.

The draft will not be opened until the draft rolls are finalized. Another email will be sent after the draft is opened.

Code:
League 1			Week 7		 Week 8		W7+W8		TPtstec79			   262.00		 258.55		520.55	   2091.50	Rozelle			 268.55		 249.95		518.50	   2118.85Borbely			 272.05		 246.35		518.40	   2129.90SunTzu			  234.85		 244.25		479.10	   2156.15Polyethylene Bag	222.90		 205.70		428.60	   1979.70
tec79 will advance, Polyethylene Bag will be eliminated. Borbely should have enough MNF firepower to get him through to the final league. SunTzu looks likely to come from behind and steal Rozelle’s slot. Rozelle is finished for the week, while SunTzu has five players who could contribute to his Week 8 score. A SunTzu comeback will almost certainly get him a top four pick.
Code:
League 2			Week 7		 Week 8		W7+W8		TPtsBramel			  287.80		 207.90		495.70	   2126.25Chainz			  244.95		 217.10		462.05	   1936.60FullbackFro		 254.70		 183.90		438.60	   1975.95Tick				181.40		 202.30		383.70	   1866.10DanFouts			155.10		 159.70		314.80	   1831.25
Bramel, Chainz and Fullback Fro advance from League 2. It’s unlikely, but Chainz has an outside shot of improving his bottom four draft position tonight.
Code:
League 3			Week 7		 Week 8		W7+W8		TPtsChaos Commish	   234.35		 253.55		487.90	   1994.75buck56			  260.70		 206.00		466.70	   1940.25SkyRattlers		 243.55		 212.45		456.00	   2010.25tazinib1			229.10		 221.30		450.40	   1920.3544orange			230.00		 181.70		411.70	   1902.15
44orange is very likely eliminated, barring monster games from Keiaho and Chris Johnson. Sky Rattlers is also likely eliminated, barring a total Wayne/Haynesworth disaster from tazinib1. Chaos Commish will likely end up with a top four pick this week and buck56 should also advance.
Code:
League 4			Week 7		 Week 8		W7+W8		TPtsBloom			   284.50		 274.60		559.10	   2235.80BennyBeaver		 251.65		 251.00		502.65	   2046.30Crippler			213.85		 204.75		418.60	   2027.45TheManWithNoName	186.15		 203.10		389.25	   2071.85FightingWombat	  176.15		 208.75		384.90	   1895.90
Bloom and BennyBeaver will advance, with Bloom earning a top four pick. Three way battle for the final slot, with Crippler holding a sizable advantage tonight.
 
An email has been sent to all those still alive at the email address you listed at the current MFL site. Some of those who look to be advancing haven't been around FBG recently and should check in soon. If you haven't received the email, PM me ASAP with a new email address and update the current MFL site.

Please be advised:

This draft needs to finish by Saturday afternoon. Please do not hold up the draft unnecessarily. Find someone to assist you with draft picks or liberally use the predraft functions when your pick is reasonably close, especially when we hit the later rounds. Please do not force our hand into skipping picks due to repeated timing out issues or leaving a huge number of rounds for completion on Saturday.

 
I’ll wait until MFL updates the website for the night to double check the math, but here’s what it looks like to me right now.

Code:
League 1			Week 7		 Week 8		W7+W8		TPtstec79			   262.00		 303.15		565.15	   2136.10 (2)	Borbely			 272.05		 256.35		528.40	   2139.90 (1)Rozelle			 268.55		 249.95		518.50	   2118.85 (3)SunTzu			  234.85		 275.95		510.85	   2187.85Polyethylene Bag	222.90		 214.65		437.55	   1988.65
Code:
League 2			Week 7		 Week 8		W7+W8		TPtsBramel			  287.80		 215.65		503.45	   2134.00 (1)Chainz			  244.95		 247.15		492.10	   1966.65 (3)FullbackFro		 254.70		 192.90		447.60	   1984.95 (2)Tick				181.40		 202.30		383.70	   1866.10DanFouts			155.10		 164.25		319.35	   1835.80
Code:
League 3			Week 7		 Week 8		W7+W8		TPtsbuck56			  260.70		 240.50		501.20	   1974.75 (3)Chaos Commish	   234.35		 265.05		499.40	   2006.25 (2)SkyRattlers		 243.55		 212.45		456.00	   2010.25 (1)tazinib1			229.10		 223.90		453.00	   1922.9544orange			230.00		 205.80		435.80	   1926.25
Code:
League 4			Week 7		 Week 8		W7+W8		TPtsBloom			   284.50		 274.60		559.10	   2235.80 (1)BennyBeaver		 251.65		 270.80		522.45	   2066.10 (2)Crippler			213.85		 206.25		420.10	   2028.95 (3)TheManWithNoName	186.15		 207.60		393.75	   2076.35FightingWombat	  176.15		 216.25		392.40	   1903.40
 
Results of the random dice rolls within each group and draft order below.

1 Bloom 321

1 Bramel 262

1 SkyRattlers 196

1 Borbely 148

2 FullbackFro 306

2 Chaos Commish 289

2 tec79 240

2 BennyBeaver 117

3 Crippler 353

3 Chainz 281

3 buck56 278

3 Rozelle 140

MFL link here and in first post of thread.

 
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And we're off!Two guys who will give their teams zeroes next week go in the top 4...
I considered the week 9 bye, but since 10 of 12 teams advance, I thought it was worth the risk to get an elite LB like Beason. The gamble pays off if I don't have a clunker week 9. If I don't make it past the first two weeks, it will tell me that I drafted poorly overall and not that it was just Beason.Of course, the way some of my redraft teams look, a poor draft is a distinct possibility. :towelwave:
 
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And we're off!Two guys who will give their teams zeroes next week go in the top 4...
I considered the week 9 bye, but since 10 of 12 teams advance, I thought it was worth the risk to get an elite LB like Beason. The gamble pays off if I don't have a clunker week 9. If I don't make it past the first week, it will tell me that I drafted poorly overall and not that it was just Beason.Of course, the way some of my redraft teams look, a poor draft is a distinct possibility. :thumbdown:
The whole question of how much to discount players because of the bye is a very interesting one for this kind of draft. It'll be interesting to see where some of the injured players go too. I've never done a midseason draft, or an IDP only draft, so this should be a lot of fun.
 
Sigmund Bloom said:
And we're off!Two guys who will give their teams zeroes next week go in the top 4...
Super Mario, eh? Was expecting the second player on my predraft list this morning -- DJ Williams, who was just a hair behind Willis for me.Let's keep this draft hopping this week, folks. :unsure:
 
Oh sure. Sig and Jene get the first two picks. Like this isn't rigged. It doesn't matter. Now that my pathetic offense is permanently off the field this should be simple. :excited:

Btw, I would have taken Mario too.

 
Sigmund Bloom said:
And we're off!Two guys who will give their teams zeroes next week go in the top 4...
I considered the week 9 bye, but since 10 of 12 teams advance, I thought it was worth the risk to get an elite LB like Beason. The gamble pays off if I don't have a clunker week 9. If I don't make it past the first week, it will tell me that I drafted poorly overall and not that it was just Beason.Of course, the way some of my redraft teams look, a poor draft is a distinct possibility. :pickle:
The whole question of how much to discount players because of the bye is a very interesting one for this kind of draft. It'll be interesting to see where some of the injured players go too. I've never done a midseason draft, or an IDP only draft, so this should be a lot of fun.
I decided to go for the high tackle upside of Ruud despite his week 10 bye. Along with Beason, the gamble could payoff nicely if my bench can cover for them when they have a bye. I felt like the gamble was worth it since there are only two byes and with the high number of our teams playing in those 2 weeks. We'll see how this plays out. This also means I have to be solid elsewhere. :excited:
 
Someone needs to explain to me why Harrison and Woodley lasted so long. I realize that maybe none of us have drafted a team at mid season before, but doesn't proven production through 8 weeks outweigh a player's reputation/expectations of what they should be producing?

 
SkyRattlers said:
Someone needs to explain to me why Harrison and Woodley lasted so long. I realize that maybe none of us have drafted a team at mid season before, but doesn't proven production through 8 weeks outweigh a player's reputation/expectations of what they should be producing?
Agreed. I had them as the #1 and #2 LBs on my board.
 
SkyRattlers said:
Someone needs to explain to me why Harrison and Woodley lasted so long. I realize that maybe none of us have drafted a team at mid season before, but doesn't proven production through 8 weeks outweigh a player's reputation/expectations of what they should be producing?
I think both we're very good picks where they were taken. There's two schools of thought, both valid, on guys like them in a situation like this. :welcome:Patrick WillisTrent ColeYeremiah BellDidn't think an early pick was a huge advantage in this at first, but I'm pretty okay with this start.
 
1.03 DJ Williams

2.10 Lamarr Woodley

3.03 Robert Mathis

Let me state up front that after three rounds I am WAY outside my comfort zone. I've never owned any of these three guys on any team before. But after studying the rules for this league I think I may see a solid strategy that I can use to give myself an edge that others may not see. But it's definitely tough vying away from years of habits that almost always get my team to the playoffs.

 
1.04 LB Jon Beason (BYE week 9)

2.09 LB Barrett Ruud BYE week 10)

3.04 DE Kyle Vanden Bosch

4.09 S Sean Jones

Beason has a week 9 bye, but with only 2 teams being dropped, I felt it was well worth the risk. Similar thought with Ruud and his week 10 bye. VDB has been hurt, but he is a stud when healthy and he was close to playing this past week. Sean Jones at 4.09 is a steal. He is a stud.

So far, I'm happy with my start, although I took some risks.

 
1.01 Mario Williams, DE, HOU

2.12 Gibril Wilson, S, OAK

3.01 Karlos Dansby, LB, ARI

4.12 John Abraham, DE, ATL

5.01 Gaines Adams, DE, TB (bye week 10)

Obviously I think DE is very important. There are only about 20 guys in the NFL at the position who are threats to be active in the box score with any consistency. A combination of factors has tainted five of those guys. I made it a top priority to get three of my top 15, just like I did in the first leg, only this time around, the IDP only aspect and the lack of a glut of sleepers since everyone has gotten to see everyone play for half a season (plus the missing five) made this a lot harder. Picking at the turn makes it even harder, because I have to trust you guys let one of the last guys in a tier fall 22 more picks to me. I felt I had to lock up my 3rd elite DE now instead of gambling on one of few remaining acceptable candidates falling through all of you getting two swings at the pinata.

 
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Everyone's team looks good at this point. A few positions taken that I wont touch but who knows in the end. It is usually the O side where most teams get killed in the end. That part would have made this draft interesting to see who went where

Bloom. Good thing you did draft both. I almost took one of them last time but could not ignore what Porter has done to this point anymore. They would not have made it back to you.

 
1.01 Mario Williams, DE, HOU2.12 Gibril Wilson, S, OAK3.01 Karlos Dansby, LB, ARI4.12 John Abraham, DE, ATL5.01 Gaines Adams, DE, TB (bye week 10)I have to trust you guys let one of the last guys in a tier fall 22 more picks to me.
Just tell me who you want to slide to you and I promise I will not take him. :goodposting: :loco:
 
1.04 LB Jon Beason (BYE week 9)2.09 LB Barrett Ruud BYE week 10)3.04 DE Kyle Vanden Bosch4.09 S Sean JonesBeason has a week 9 bye, but with only 2 teams being dropped, I felt it was well worth the risk. Similar thought with Ruud and his week 10 bye. VDB has been hurt, but he is a stud when healthy and he was close to playing this past week. Sean Jones at 4.09 is a steal. He is a stud. So far, I'm happy with my start, although I took some risks.
5.04 LB Chad GreenwayGreenway has been solid and makes for a great LB3 for me (LB2 the first 2 weeks with my bye weeks).
 
Abraham, John ATL DE - 7

Adams, Gaines TBB DE - 10

Freeney, Dwight IND DE - 4

Williams, Mario HOU DE - 2

Bulluck, Keith TEN LB - 6

Dansby, Karlos ARI LB - 7

Davis, Thomas CAR LB - 9

Johnson, Derrick KCC LB - 6

Thomas, Zach DAL LB - 10

Woodson, Charles GBP CB (P) - 8

Wilson, Gibril OAK S - 5

Since last we met, I've gone LB crazy. I used the 6/7 and 8/9 turns to go LB/LB - Bulluck and DJ at 6/7 - who I am looking at more for their big games than their baseline, and Thomas Davis and Zach Thomas at 8/9, who are more baseline guys for me, but they do trade off bye weeks the next two weeks.

This last turn I went Freeney and Woodson. I couldn't pass up Woodson's "pick six in any given week" profile, especially as the 13th CB off the board. Freeney might seem like overkill with my top 3 DEs, but I saw him as the last DE left who is liable to put up multi-sacks or the sack/FF/FR in any given week, and DEs are notoriously up and down, so it's good to have some insurance. I also saw him as a keep-away pick - if my top 3 DEs work out, and Freeney is only a flex (or even bench) for me in his big weeks, that's fine, because he's not putting up those big weeks for someone else.

 
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Hall, James STL DE - 5

Mathis, Robert IND DE - 4

Cooper, Stephen SDC LB - 9

Williams, DJ DEN LB - 8

Woodley, LaMarr PIT LB (Q) - 6

Bodden, Leigh DET CB - 4

Gamble, Chris CAR CB - 9

Hall, Deangelo OAK CB - 5

Bullitt, Melvin IND S - 4

Dawkins, Brian PHI S - 7

Milloy, Lawyer ATL S - 7

I'm kicking myself on the Melvin Bullitt selection. It was my birthday yesterday, I had people over and I had been drinking....not a good time to do some quick drafting. It wasn't more than 10 seconds after I hit the draft button that I realized that Sanders was rumoured to be coming back soon and that Bullitt would lose a lot of playing time.

But besides that gaff I'm pretty pleased with my team so far. I really wish that my DE's could have been stronger but with everyone having the same view it's been hard to find any value any the position and I just keep finding myself trying to decide between a DE who averages 5-7 points a week or a CB/S averaging 10+ points a week.

At this point in the draft I'm confident that I have the best CBs and I have one of the best sets of "starters" at LB.

 
SkyRattlers said:
Hey Borbely, how are you gonna make it past the first cut if you keep drafting LBs with week 9 & 10 byes? :lmao:
Nothing but carelessness. :rolleyes:The Jones pick was planned, bye and all, but the McIntosh pick was just plain dumb. I was too rushed this morning and did not even look at the byes. I also had forgotten about already selecting Jones when I set my picks this morning. :loco:
 
Hey Borbely, how are you gonna make it past the first cut if you keep drafting LBs with week 9 & 10 byes? ;)
Nothing but carelessness. :wall:The Jones pick was planned, bye and all, but the McIntosh pick was just plain dumb. I was too rushed this morning and did not even look at the byes. I also had forgotten about already selecting Jones when I set my picks this morning. :(
That bad McIntosh pick with its bye week ramifications really messed me up. :lmao:
 
My first 15 picks

D'Qwell Jackson LB

Chris Long DE

Julian Peterson LB

Kerry Rhodes S

Ty Warren DE

Jerod Mayo LB

Brandon Meriweather S

Freddie Keiaho LB

Sabby Piscitelli S

Charles Johnson DE

Pisa Tinoisamoa LB

Dunta Robinson CB

Fakhir Brown CB

Bryan Scott S

Domata Peko DT

Before the draft started I was perplexed as to what I was going to do in order to have a successful draft. If I had one remains to be seen.

Now I know that each owner got here by doing well in the first leg, thus the chances of there being any guppies in this draft was slim. 4 are FBG's staffers, so there you go.

Because of this I knew that I wouldn't get good, but unherald players for cheap. Zach Diles, Kevin Payne, Chris Horton, etc aren't going to be there in the 20th round. Maybe in a league with some guppies, but not here.

I also put into consideration the fact that this is a very odd setup where we are drafting strictly IDP's in the middle of the season and if we get lucky we'll play 8 games. No guppies, weird setup, lack of other drafts to use as a template, thus no real idea of who's going to be drafted where, I decided to throw ADP completely out of the window. If I want a player, I'm going to get him with my next pick. Because I have no clue what the other 11 owners are thinking. If I was using ADP I wouldn't have picked Chris Long in the 2nd round, but he was a perfect pick for what I'm looking for in a player.

After deciding on that I gave this rule a lot of attention:

Two teams will be voted off after Week 10 based on cumulative two week scoring in that period. Two teams will be voted off after Weeks 11, 12 and 13. The surviving four teams will then accumulate points between Weeks 14 and 16 and the team with the highest cumulative three week point total will be crowned the Ultimate IDP Survivor.
I decided to look at this as 3 micro-seasons with Week 9-10 being the most important, Week 11-13 being the second most important and Week 14-16 being the least important.Some might think this is backward because if you do well in Week 14-16, you win the big prize. I look at IDP's as being very hard to predict, so the further you go away from today, the further I'm confident about what's going to happen. Plus, and this is important, if I don't do well in Week 9-10, I'm history. I can't get sloppy and just assume I'll be a Top 10 team after the first 2 weeks. Remember, there's no guppies in this league.

So with Week 9-10 being the most important of the 3 micro-seasons, I made sure none of my assumed starters would have a bye. This also trickled down to my backups. We're in Round 21 of the draft as I write this. Only

Sabby Piscitelli, Charles Johnson and Domata Peko (who doesn't even count since he's a DT) have byes.

I then decided that I only want players who fit two criterias: Has done very well the last 3 weeks and who has a good SOS coming up.

My line of thinking is that I don't care what a player did from Week 1-5. I want players who are currently on a hot streak and hope to see it continue: Momentum if you will. And, under my logic, if I pick players who also has a good SOS coming up, that momentum should continue.

mfl gives us the tools to look at those two things.

Cliff-notes on my strategy

Ignore ADP. I have no clue what the other guys are going to do.

Avoid bye weeks like the plague because Week 9-10 is the most important micro-season.

Pick players who are currently on a hot streak.

Pick players who have a good SOS, thus the hot streak should continue.

P.S.

I also wanted to make sure I left happy about my LB's. You start 3 each week (maybe 4 with the flex), but I figure everyone else was looking at that as well.

 
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My first 15 picks

D'Qwell Jackson LB

Chris Long DE

Julian Peterson LB

Kerry Rhodes S

Ty Warren DE

Jerod Mayo LB

Brandon Meriweather S

Freddie Keiaho LB

Sabby Piscitelli S

Charles Johnson DE

Pisa Tinoisamoa LB

Dunta Robinson CB

Fakhir Brown CB

Bryan Scott S

Domata Peko DT

Before the draft started I was perplexed as to what I was going to do in order to have a successful draft. If I had one remains to be seen.

Now I know that each owner got here by doing well in the first leg, thus the chances of there being any guppies in this draft was slim. 4 are FBG's staffers, so there you go.

Because of this I knew that I wouldn't get good, but unherald players for cheap. Zach Diles, Kevin Payne, Chris Horton, etc aren't going to be there in the 20th round. Maybe in a league with some guppies, but not here.

I also put into consideration the fact that this is a very odd setup where we are drafting strictly IDP's in the middle of the seaso and if we get lucky we'll play 8 games. No guppies, weird setup, lack of other drafts to use as a template, thus no real idea of who's going to be drafted where, I decided to throw ADP completely out of the window. If I want a player, I'm going to get him with my next pick. Because I have no clue what the other 11 owners are thinking. If I was using ADP I wouldn't have picked Chris Long in the 2nd round, but he was a perfect pick for what I'm looking for in a player.

After deciding on that I gave this rule a lot of attention:

Two teams will be voted off after Week 10 based on cumulative two week scoring in that period. Two teams will be voted off after Weeks 11, 12 and 13. The surviving four teams will then accumulate points between Weeks 14 and 16 and the team with the highest cumulative three week point total will be crowned the Ultimate IDP Survivor.
I decided to look at this as 3 micro-seasons with Week 9-10 being the most important, Week 11-13 being the second most important and Week 14-16 being the least important.Some might think this is backward because if you do well in Week 14-16, you win the big prize. I look at IDP's as being very hard to predict, so the further you go away from today, the further I'm confident about what's going to happen. Plus, and this is important, if I don't do well in Week 9-10, I'm history. I can't get sloppy and just assume I'll be a Top 10 team after the first 2 weeks. Remember, there's no guppies in this league.

So with Week 9-10 being the most important of the 3 micro-seasons, I made sure none of my assumed starters would have a bye. This also trickled down to my backups. We're in Round 21 of the draft as I write this. Only

Sabby Piscitelli, Charles Johnson and Domata Peko (who doesn't even count since he's a DT) have byes.

I then decided that I only want players who fit two criterias: Has done very well the last 3 weeks and who have a good SOS.

My line of thinking is that I don't care what a player did from Week 1-5. I want players who are currently on a hot streak and hope to see it continue: Momentum if you will. And, under my logic, if I pick players who also have a good SOS, that momentum should continue.

With mfl, I was able to accomplish this.

Cliff-notes on my strategy

Ignore ADP. I have no clue what the other guys are going to do.

Avoid bye weeks like the plague because Week 9-10 is the most important micro-season.

Pick players who are currently on a hot streak.

Pick players who have a good SOS, thus the hot streak should continue.

P.S.

I also wanted to make sure I left happy about my LB's. You start 3 each week (maybe 4 with the flex), but I figure everyone else was looking at that as well.
:goodposting:
 
So, my draft is completed now. Here is my short analysis:

Haynesworth, Albert TEN DT

Thomas, Marcus DEN DT

Maybe my pick of Haynesworth was a bit early in round 2, but I had the strong feeling that he wouldn't be available in round 3. So I reached for the best DT in the country. I tried to back him up with Tommie Harris, but Buck stole him 1 pick before. So I decided to wait for one of the last rounds to back Haynesworth up and hope that he won't get injured. Don't know much about Marcus Thomas, to be honest.

Ekuban, Ebenezer DEN DE

Holliday, Vonnie MIA DE

Kerney, Patrick SEA DE (O)

Kiwanuka, Mathias NYG DE

Smith, Aaron PIT DE

Taylor, Jason WAS DE (O)

By far the biggest weakness of my team. DEs were going very early and I had to decide to jump on the wagon or take Haynesworth. I was quite confident when I got Kerney and Kiwanuka as my first 2 DE picks, but the situation became ugly when the early reports were refused that Kerney is likely to play this week. Now he is listed as out and could miss maybe longer. So I hope for guys like Ekuban, A.Smith or Holiday to make a big play next to Kiwanuka. Got Taylor in the second last round. Just couldn't pass on him that late.

Barnett, Nick GBP LB

Lofton, Curtis ATL LB

Posluszny, Paul BUF LB

Scott, Bart BAL LB

Thomas, Pat KCC LB

Tulloch, Stephen TEN LB

Witherspoon, Will STL LB

Wow, I got 6 starting MLBs and one starting OLB. I should be quite confident, shouldn't I? Unfortunately all those players except Poz underachieved (Barnett, Witherspoon) or have yet to break out (Lofton, P.Thomas, Tulloch). I hope 3-4 of those guys can put up nice numbers each week. Grabbed Bart Scott for his boom or bust mentality each and every week.

Barber, Ronde TBB CB

Finnegan, Cortland TEN CB

Mathis, Rashean JAC CB (P)

McGee, Terrence BUF CB

I think this is a good bunch of CBs I have drafted. Just hope they will all stay healthy (as I only have 4) and there shouldn't be much of concern, even though Barber's bye week sucks.

Bethea, Antoine IND S

Butler, James NYG S

Horton, Chris WAS S (P)

Sharper, Darren MIN S

Williams, Brian JAC S

Well, not a great group of safetys, but a solid one I think. Unfortunately Horton has a bye in week 10 as well as Barber, but I hope that the other guys can avert the risk.

Overall I don't think my team can compete with the best teams in our league, but I hope I will survive a few weeks.

Other opinions would be highly appreciated.

 
Folks, I'll be writing up my thoughts on each person's draft as the day goes on. Great work everyone, and I think we've set a nice precedent for in season and IDP only drafts. This was illuminating if only to see where 12 very sharp IDP minds are on players at this point in the season.

Thanks everyone for being prompt and also being good drafters, making this one of the toughest drafts any of us has been a part of.

 
Folks, I'll be writing up my thoughts on each person's draft as the day goes on. Great work everyone, and I think we've set a nice precedent for in season and IDP only drafts. This was illuminating if only to see where 12 very sharp IDP minds are on players at this point in the season.Thanks everyone for being prompt and also being good drafters, making this one of the toughest drafts any of us has been a part of.
Don't know if I'll be ambitious enough to writeup every team, but I'll add some strategy thoughts later tonight.Very competitive draft with a very good pace. Thanks to everyone, even CC. :goodposting:
 
Patterson, Mike PHI DT - 7Tyler, Tank KCC DT - 6Abraham, John ATL DE - 7Adams, Gaines TBB DE - 10Edwards, Ray MIN DE (P) - 8Freeney, Dwight IND DE - 4Williams, Mario HOU DE - 2Bowens, David NYJ LB - 5Bulluck, Keith TEN LB - 6Dansby, Karlos ARI LB - 7Davis, Thomas CAR LB - 9Johnson, Derrick KCC LB - 6Thomas, Zach DAL LB - 10Wimbley, Kamerion CLE LB - 5Cromartie, Antonio SDC CB - 9Hood, Roderick ARI CB - 7Marshall, Richard CAR CB - 9Taylor, Ike PIT CB - 6Woodson, Charles GBP CB (P) - 8Grant, Deon SEA S - 4Harper, Roman NOS S - 9Hill, Renaldo MIA S - 4Manuel, Marquand DEN S - 8Wilson, Gibril OAK S (P) - 5
I had a very clear plan going into this draft and at least until mid-draft, I was able to execute it (see earlier posts).3 top 15 DEs - check (1.01, 4.12/5.01)5 top 40 LBs - check (3.01, 6.12/7.01, 8.12/9.01)Gibril Wilson was a BPA, I consider him THE stud safety right now, and at 2.12 I couldnt pass that up.At the 10/11 turn I was planning on the best big play corner left (which was Woodson), but I wasn't planning on Freeney. I never expected him to be there. I was rating the DEs on their capacity for big games, and Freeney is still a top 20 guy in that category. More discussion on that pick earlier in the thread. I would have gone with Omar Gaither if Freeney wasn't there.12/13 was time to bolster my secondary. Harper was a perfect baseline safety who also contributes a few big games as my #2. Cromartie is one of the best big play corners in the league (and as a plus, with him playing badly, he's getting beaten a lot, which translates to a few big tackle games). This pair did tie my hands later as they both had week 9 byes, but getting players of this caliber as the 144th and 145th players selected was just silly. I think everyone discounted the byes a little too much early, and then overweighted them as we got later in the draft.14/15 was a panic pair, I'll admit it. It's the only part of the draft that left a bad taste in my mouth. Wilson had missed his second practice of the week (despite no report of injury after the ravens game that i could find), so I was staring down the barrel of having no starting safety on my roster for this week (Harper on bye), and I really didnt like what I saw out there. Of course I liked the next tier even less than the few mediocre starters left. Ugh. Hill was a safe 6-8 point guy, and Grant for the most part was similar, but with a few duds and a few good games. Grant is also just a better player. I should have nutted up and taken the one GOOD safety left, LaRon Landry, but he was missing practices too, and he also had a week 10 bye, which made the Redskins more likely to rest him if it was an ailment that just needed rest to get better. I had to minimize risk here, and it hurt. Wilson ended up working out on Friday and he's probable, so there's a happy ending. My preferred picks here would have been Landry and Richard Marshall, and I still got Marshall.16/17 Marshall/Taylor - A baseline CB and an upside CB. Marshall has a nose for the ball and the end zone. He's getting good enough tackle numbers as a nickel to be hedge against my big play Cromartie and Woodson coming up empty. I was surprised Marshall kept falling. He has helped a lot of us win championships down the stretch, and if Lucas or Gamble get hurt, he has the value of a top 50 pick, maybe higher. His numbers as a starter are off the charts.18/19 Edwards/Bowens - This pair was a little weird. Edwards was another DE I didnt expect to be there, another guy I picked both to play keep away from you guys and hopefully harvest a few 10+ weeks from. Bowens is a guy I took to hedge Davis and Zach Thomas's bye weeks (I dont see Harris coming back next week either). I know Jene dismissed him from having long term value, or even value for the rest of the season. And I agree. He won't look great as an ILB out there. If I were the Bills I'd run right at him. But that will likely get him 4 to 5 tackles even if it's just holding on as Marshawn Lynch runs him over. He's also had a great nose for the ball this year, with 3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles and a recovery - as a sub! Last year he had 2.5 sacks in very limited time. He's a gamble pick that I would only make in a survivor league, and only on the microseason theory Benny elucidated (great post Benny). 20/21 Tyler/Manuel - A baseline DT and a crappy safety who is in a crappy defense, so he gets lots of chances to make tackles at the third level of the run game and on completions. I almost didnt take Manuel because I was afraid he'd get replaced by the end of the year.22/23 Wimbley/Hood - Wimbley was a swing at getting 1-2 more 12-15 pt games to cover flex (or maybe LB3 in a down week). He's been getting pushed around, but he still has valid pass rush speed and instincts, and Cleveland's D is picking up the play lately. Hood was a gift that late. He's a pretty sure tackling CB, and he returned not one, but two INTs for TDs last year. He hasn't had an INT yet this year, but I like his chances in the second half on a first place team that should be playing from ahead a lot.24 Patterson - my upside DT. He's been quiet this year, but he was a beast in the box score last year, and with Philly's hockey line system, you never know who is going to go off, sometimes its just being in the right place at the right time.Fire away. Of course I believe my draft went well and I have a good chance to go deep, but this league is no joke, and it's new ground for all of us, so mostly, I'm just honored to be part of it.
 
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The fact that everyone drafted in a reasonable time made this draft great. The fast pace makes it so much more fun. There is nothing worse than waiting hours on end all the time. We really did an excellent job getting this done in a timely manner.

The competition was fierce. I can tell this because of how much I cussed at you all when you stole my players.

I did a lot of swearing. :lol:

I am officially a HUGE fan of in-season drafts. This was a blast. :thumbup:

 
Picking 2nd we have the good doctor, Jene Bramel

Brown, Tony TEN DT - 6Mebane, Brandon SEA DT - 4Cole, Trent PHI DE - 7Dockett, Darnell ARI DE - 7McBride, Turk KCC DE - 6Smith, Justin SFO DE - 9White, Greg TBB DE - 10Bradley, Stewart PHI LB - 7Hawk, A.J. GBP LB - 8Laboy, Travis ARI LB (Q) - 7Leber, Ben MIN LB - 8Pace, Calvin NYJ LB - 5Roth, Matt MIA LB - 4Smith, Daryl JAC LB - 7Willis, Patrick SFO LB - 9Bartell, Ronald STL CB - 5Foxworth, Domonique ATL CB - 7Tillman, Charles CHI CB (P) - 8Trufant, Marcus SEA CB - 4Webster, Corey NYG CB - 4Bell, Yeremiah MIA S - 4Bigby, Atari GBP S - 8Lewis, Michael SFO S - 9Lowry, Calvin DEN S - 8
Let's just say that while I was unhappy to see Jene right in front of me because he could snipe a player that I was waiting to fall to me, I was also happy to know that I'd force him into tough decisions of which of his top 2 players to let fall and hope I didn't snipe with my pair.Jene started out with Willis. I get it. He's the premier IDP. My problem with taking him was the week 9 bye. I mean right off the bat I'm tying my best player behind my back for half of the first cut. I would have also been seriously discouraged from taking another other week 9 LBs, and in general from taking any other week 9 bye players early. Still, he's Patrick Willis. He helps bring home titles.Jene was smart and got a stud DE with his 2nd rounder. He also spent his 5.02 on Justin Smith which was smart because he was the last top 15 DE left on my board. The extra week 9 bye stings, but after I took Abraham/Adams, the DEs were drying up fast.Bradley and Bell were the other players Jene took in his first five picks. Bell puts up numbers and he's probably the best player in the Miami secondary, solid pick, Didn't like Bradley pick as much. We've seen what he can do. He's a middling IDP LB, not really a tackle machine, and not really a big play explosive guy either. He's a gap filler in a league like this, an LB3 or LB4, not an LB2.Jene went Pace and Brown in 6/7 and I can't argue with either. Brown is establishing himself as Haynesworth lite, and Pace is a perfect survivor player. There's also a chance Pace could be a major steal if Bowens falters and he moves inside on run downs. I had Pace higher than Bradley on my cheatsheet.Tillman/Hawk was right on at 8/9. Tillman is injured, yes, but coming off the rest of the bye, and right there with Finnegan and Winfield as premier CBs. Getting him three rounds later than them as CB9 was more than worth the inherent risk.At 10/11 Jene went Leber/Dockett. I like Leber, and I was targeting him for a later pick, but he absolutely merited a 10th. He's a good big play threat and he should beat Nap Harris to some tackles. Dockett was another solid baseline DE with upside, can't argue with that pick.12/13 was Bigby/Trufant. Absolutely nailed both of those picks. I strongly considered Trufant over Cromartie, or going Trufant/Cromartie.14/15 was Lowry/Daryl Smith - Sorry Jener, I think you shanked the Lowry pick. He's terrible. They could put McCree back in just as fast as they pulled him. Smith is a good LB who never seems to produce stats to match his play. He's a fine LB6.16/17 Jene more than makes up for the Lowry pick with Lewis. Why did you guys let so many good week 9 bye safeties and corners fall? I was limited by already having Harper and a gimpy Wilson, but I almost was gonna take Lewis at my next pair just on principle. Same with Clements late. and Chris Harris. and Quentin Jammer. and Ken Lucas. Roth was the 17.02, my top ranked LB left at the time, much in the spirit of my late Wimbley pick, get a few big games to flex or LB3 in a bad week.18/19 Mebane/Webster - good baseline/upside DT and big play CB. good picks.20/21 White/Foxworth - Not sure I totally understand Foxworth. Grimes is banged up, but I'm not sure Foxy is better than a raw Chevis Jackson, and I never saw that much in him in Denver. White is a good sack artist, the well's run dry lately, but he started hot, and he was a sack machine for a stretch there last year. Love that pick.22/23 Bartell/McBride - Bartell was right behind Hood on my CB list. McBride was overkill. With Cole and two good baseline DEs, I doubt he ever cracks your lineup. Another sack specialist would have been a better call.24 Laboy - another good late LB pick a la Wimbley, I considered him over Wimbley, but his groin injury worried me.Jene has a good team. A very good team. He should weather his SF trio's week 9 byes because he isolated them. He's got good threats for top 5 weeks at Corner. Willis is liable to give him 30+ at any time. He should last to the finals, and it shouldn't surprise any of us.
 
Picking 2nd we have the good doctor, Jene Bramel

Brown, Tony TEN DT - 6Mebane, Brandon SEA DT - 4Cole, Trent PHI DE - 7Dockett, Darnell ARI DE - 7McBride, Turk KCC DE - 6Smith, Justin SFO DE - 9White, Greg TBB DE - 10Bradley, Stewart PHI LB - 7Hawk, A.J. GBP LB - 8Laboy, Travis ARI LB (Q) - 7Leber, Ben MIN LB - 8Pace, Calvin NYJ LB - 5Roth, Matt MIA LB - 4Smith, Daryl JAC LB - 7Willis, Patrick SFO LB - 9Bartell, Ronald STL CB - 5Foxworth, Domonique ATL CB - 7Tillman, Charles CHI CB (P) - 8Trufant, Marcus SEA CB - 4Webster, Corey NYG CB - 4Bell, Yeremiah MIA S - 4Bigby, Atari GBP S - 8Lewis, Michael SFO S - 9Lowry, Calvin DEN S - 8
Let's just say that while I was unhappy to see Jene right in front of me because he could snipe a player that I was waiting to fall to me, I was also happy to know that I'd force him into tough decisions of which of his top 2 players to let fall and hope I didn't snipe with my pair.Jene started out with Willis. I get it. He's the premier IDP. My problem with taking him was the week 9 bye. I mean right off the bat I'm tying my best player behind my back for half of the first cut. I would have also been seriously discouraged from taking another other week 9 LBs, and in general from taking any other week 9 bye players early. Still, he's Patrick Willis. He helps bring home titles.Jene was smart and got a stud DE with his 2nd rounder. He also spent his 5.02 on Justin Smith which was smart because he was the last top 15 DE left on my board. The extra week 9 bye stings, but after I took Abraham/Adams, the DEs were drying up fast.Bradley and Bell were the other players Jene took in his first five picks. Bell puts up numbers and he's probably the best player in the Miami secondary, solid pick, Didn't like Bradley pick as much. We've seen what he can do. He's a middling IDP LB, not really a tackle machine, and not really a big play explosive guy either. He's a gap filler in a league like this, an LB3 or LB4, not an LB2.Jene went Pace and Brown in 6/7 and I can't argue with either. Brown is establishing himself as Haynesworth lite, and Pace is a perfect survivor player. There's also a chance Pace could be a major steal if Bowens falters and he moves inside on run downs. I had Pace higher than Bradley on my cheatsheet.Tillman/Hawk was right on at 8/9. Tillman is injured, yes, but coming off the rest of the bye, and right there with Finnegan and Winfield as premier CBs. Getting him three rounds later than them as CB9 was more than worth the inherent risk.At 10/11 Jene went Leber/Dockett. I like Leber, and I was targeting him for a later pick, but he absolutely merited a 10th. He's a good big play threat and he should beat Nap Harris to some tackles. Dockett was another solid baseline DE with upside, can't argue with that pick.12/13 was Bigby/Trufant. Absolutely nailed both of those picks. I strongly considered Trufant over Cromartie, or going Trufant/Cromartie.14/15 was Lowry/Daryl Smith - Sorry Jener, I think you shanked the Lowry pick. He's terrible. They could put McCree back in just as fast as they pulled him. Smith is a good LB who never seems to produce stats to match his play. He's a fine LB6.16/17 Jene more than makes up for the Lowry pick with Lewis. Why did you guys let so many good week 9 bye safeties and corners fall? I was limited by already having Harper and a gimpy Wilson, but I almost was gonna take Lewis at my next pair just on principle. Same with Clements late. and Chris Harris. and Quentin Jammer. and Ken Lucas. Roth was the 17.02, my top ranked LB left at the time, much in the spirit of my late Wimbley pick, get a few big games to flex or LB3 in a bad week.18/19 Mebane/Webster - good baseline/upside DT and big play CB. good picks.20/21 White/Foxworth - Not sure I totally understand Foxworth. Grimes is banged up, but I'm not sure Foxy is better than a raw Chevis Jackson, and I never saw that much in him in Denver. White is a good sack artist, the well's run dry lately, but he started hot, and he was a sack machine for a stretch there last year. Love that pick.22/23 Bartell/McBride - Bartell was right behind Hood on my CB list. McBride was overkill. With Cole and two good baseline DEs, I doubt he ever cracks your lineup. Another sack specialist would have been a better call.24 Laboy - another good late LB pick a la Wimbley, I considered him over Wimbley, but his groin injury worried me.Jene has a good team. A very good team. He should weather his SF trio's week 9 byes because he isolated them. He's got good threats for top 5 weeks at Corner. Willis is liable to give him 30+ at any time. He should last to the finals, and it shouldn't surprise any of us.
Jene's team is definetly a very strong team, greats starters and deap at all positions.
 
Picking 3rd... Sky Rattlers

Bernard, Rocky SEA DT - 4Clancy, Kendrick NOS DT - 9Castillo, Luis SDC DE - 9Coleman, Kenyon NYJ DE - 5Hall, James STL DE - 5Mathis, Robert IND DE - 4Spicer, Paul JAC DE - 7Cooper, Stephen SDC LB - 9Harris, Napoleon MIN LB - 8Lawson, Manny SFO LB - 9Thomas, Bryan NYJ LB - 5Williams, DJ DEN LB - 8Winborn, Jamie DEN LB - 8Woodley, LaMarr PIT LB (P) - 6Bodden, Leigh DET CB - 4Gamble, Chris CAR CB - 9Hall, Deangelo OAK CB - 5Joseph, Johnathan CIN CB - 10Vasher, Nathan CHI CB (P) - 8Bullitt, Melvin IND S - 4Dawkins, Brian PHI S - 7Hamlin, Ken DAL S - 10Milloy, Lawyer ATL S - 7Page, Jarrad KCC S (P) - 6
SR came out of the gate with DJ Williams, a fine cornerstone, a guy who has arrived and is another example of talent eventually finding the opportunity and role to be a IDP stud, although he is greatly benefitted by being the best tackler on a terrible defense.at the 2/3 turn, he went Woodley/Mathis. I was mystified by Woodley and Harrison falling to the late 2nd. I suppose you could cite the Steelers tough second half schedule as a reason to avoid the Steelers OLBs, but to me they are exactly what you want in survivor - a 10 or 15 point play waiting to happen. Mathis was a saavy pick simply because he likely brings 3 or 4 top 10 DE weeks, which are a commodity.the 4/5 turn was DHall/Cooper. I was wary of Hall because he has inflated numbers based on being picked on unmercifully. I'm not saying he won't continue to get singled out. I just have a mental block on taking players early whose value is more because of bad play than good play. Cooper is a possible LB1, the week 9 bye was more than offset by him falling to the 5th. If I hadnt been compelled to go DE/DE at my turn I would have taken Cooper.6/7 was Gamble/Dawkins. Gamble is a fine pick because even though the big plays have tapered off, he's been compensating with big tackle numbers. I probably would have taken Mikell over Dawkins, but they both merited a 7th as two of the last remaining #1 safeties.8/9 was JHall/Bullitt - with Little ailing, Hall was a solid pick. He's not as exciting as Freeney/Dumervil/Carter in terms of explosive weeks, but he'll probably be more consistent. Bullitt was an accident, but one that could be a happy accident. Bob Sanders is no sure thing to stay healthy, and we know that Bullitt can put up top 10 numbers in his stead - not to mention Indy wanting to get him more involved even with Sanders back.10/11 Milloy/Bodden - Milloy is a fine S2, not too exciting, Bodden is getting by on rep in IDP circles, but in the 11th, he's not a terrible pick since he's not that far removed from his better days.12/13 Winborn/Bernard - I thought it was a little early to pick Winborn. You can't argue with Boss Bailey's numbers in that spot though, and Winborn also notched a sack before the bye week. In this league, if you liked a player, you couldn't assume others didn't like him too. I just have a mental block against believing in some of these so-so players that put up legit IDP numbers in that Denver defense. Bernard is a fine DT1 with upside.14/15 Page/Spicer - Page is banged up and went at a discount. His upside was probably worth the risk in the 14th. Spicer was a nice 15th round pick. He's not a highlight reel guy, but he makes plays with hustle and energy, and he could come on in the 2nd half. 16/17 Harris/Coleman - meh. Harris has little upside imo. Coleman is a good baseline DE, but they were also available later in the draft.18/19 Joseph/Lawson - Nice picks and taking advantage of the epidemic of bye players falling too far. Joseph is aggressive and he's already made a huge play this year, and Lawson is underrated because he's been injured. 20/21 Clancy/Hamlin - a good baseline DT and baseline safety, more value because of the byes.22/23 BThomas/Vasher - Bryan Thomas is another perfect survivor LB, considered him over Wimbley, but I already had Bowens. Vasher is a ballhawk. The injury and chance that Graham pushes him back to nickel are risks, but this is a 23rd round pick, so he works.24 Castillo - A good player, so I cant argue, but I would have preferred a sack artist since you already took a baseline DE in Coleman.This is a solid team. I don't know if I see enough picks that can greatly exceed draft slot by getting hot or putting up top 5 weeks to call it a favorite, but there's not any huge holes either. This is a team that can go the distance, but Im not sure if it can win unless the opponents are hit by key injuries. SR is carrying 5 week 9 byes, and if Woodley is quiet this week, SR could be looking at DJ as the only good LB score, which might doom SR to a bottom 2 or 3 week 9 score, but all those players are back in week 10 and should bail SR out.
 
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Up 4th... The great Tony Borbely

Henderson, John JAC DT - 7Redding, Cory DET DT (Q) - 4Brown, Alex CHI DE - 8Grant, Charles NOS DE - 9Kelsay, Chris BUF DE - 6Little, Leonard STL DE (Q) - 5Vanden Bosch, Kyle TEN DE (Q) - 6Beason, Jon CAR LB - 9Greenway, Chad MIN LB - 8Jones, Dhani CIN LB - 10Lenon, Paris DET LB - 4McIntosh, Roger WAS LB - 10Ruud, Barrett TBB LB - 10Tucker, Jyles SDC LB - 9Allen, Will MIA CB - 4Bly, Dre' DEN CB - 8Flowers, Brandon KCC CB (P) - 6Harris, Walt SFO CB - 9Hayden, Kelvin IND CB (Q) - 4Brown, Mike CHI S - 8Clark, Ryan PIT S (O) - 6Jones, Sean CLE S (Q) - 5Sanders, Bob IND S (Q) - 4Williams, Madieu MIN S (P) - 8
Oh Tony. Tony Tony Tony. I tell ya folks, Tony is going to get voted off the island in the first cut, or he's going to win this thing. It's a good strategy to take bye or injured players when they fall too far. Stacking your team with them was either brilliant or err, not brilliant. let's get to the picks.Beason at 1.04. That's fine. An elite LB. I saw equal LBs without the bye, but hey take players you like.Ruud at 2.09/KVB at 3.04 - Ok another bye, but 10 instead of 9. But a gimpy KVB? I think the pick here was Kiwi, not KVB, already having your first two picks sidelined in half of the first cut period. Taking a player who could be limited or even miss time was too risky.Jones and Greenway in the 4th and 5th helped right the ship a little. Jones is banged up and has already missed significant time, but he's a premier safety and a value in the 4th. Greenway is really coming on.Sanders and Alex Brown in the 6th and 7th. Sanders, another major injury risk, and we know the Colts are prone to revise injury expectations as the game approaches. I mean he is a premier safety, and its the 6th round, but risk is pervasive on Tony's roster now. Brown is an ok pick, but uninspired, still he had to feel urgency to stock up on DEs even though he took one in the 3rd because that one was injured.Little and DJones in the 8th/9th - Another injured player and another bye player. This is getting silly.Flowers and McIntosh in the 10th/11th - Flowers is a fine CB1 this late, Mcintosh another bye player. Tony lamented this already.Tucker and MWilliams in the 12th/13th - MWilliams coming back off of injury. Tucker a bye player AND a guy who has been injured. The pattern is undeniable here.Hayden and Lenon in the 14th/15th - A player returning from injury, and a solid pick in Lenon. Tony assembled a sick set of LBs... if you ignore bye weeks.Grant and Mike Brown in the 16th/17th - Suspension. That's a kind of risk Tony hadn't represented yet on his team. Brown is solid baseline safety and I considered him instead of Hill/Grant.Allen/Redding in the 18th/19th - I almost took Redding instead of Edwards/Bowens. Nice work there. Redding has the potential to be a top 3 DT. Allen was a great late CB. Hendo/Clark at 20/21 - Henderson was another great DT. You poached the DT combo I wanted... grrr. Clark, another injured player. Uncanny.Kelsay/Harris at 22/23 - Kelsay isn't bad, certainly could be a huge value if Schobel can bounce back, but another player whose short term outlook is weak. Harris is another bye player. Why Tony Why?Bly in the 24th and not a bad pick. I mean he's a potential pick six in any given week.So, there you have it. Tony, I'm not trying to pile on. You could definitely have the last laugh. I don't think it was Tony's intention, but strictly taking players with early dings on their value because of injuries/byes is actually shrewd in a gutsy way. After all, it just takes some big plays from a few of your guys who are healthy and playing, or a couple of the rest of us to just be snakebitten to sneak through and probably have the strongest team in the end. It is still a huge risk, because some of the injured guys could wither altogether, but if Tony survives the first cut, his team has the look of a contender. He could have really pulled off this strategy (even if it was unintended) by stricting drafting for weeks 9 and 10 from round 16 on, looking at matchups and only short term value.Poor Tony. He was in a hole and he couldn't stop digging. Still, he can win this thing, and I have a feeling my analysis might look as silly in December as his draft did this week.
 
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In the 5 hole, the always colorful Fullback Fro

Howard, Darren PHI DT - 7Rogers, Shaun CLE DT - 5Carter, Andre WAS DE - 10Edwards, Kalimba OAK DE - 5Ellis, Shaun NYJ DE - 5Jackson, Lawrence SEA DE - 4Richardson, Jay OAK DE - 5Boley, Michael ATL LB (Q) - 7Brooking, Keith ATL LB - 7Crowder, Channing MIA LB - 4Dobbins, Tim SDC LB - 9Harrison, James PIT LB - 6James, Bradie DAL LB - 10Vilma, Jonathan NOS LB - 9Carr, Brandon KCC CB - 6Cason, Antoine SDC CB - 9Harris, Al GBP CB - 8O'Neal, Deltha NEP CB - 4Rogers, Carlos WAS CB (Q) - 10Griffin, Michael TEN S - 6Hart, Clinton SDC S - 9Payne, Kevin CHI S - 8Pollard, Bernard KCC S - 6White, Marvin CIN S - 10
I haven't been in a lot of leagues with Fro, so I was definitely interested to see what I could learn about his MO from this draft.He started out with Vilma. I've made my bye week thoughts known, but Vilma's numbers made him worth an early first even with a zero in the first week.Harrison and Rogers in the next two picks. Ive shared my thoughts on Harrison/Woodley in SkyRattlers draft review. I like the pick, although combined with Vilma it means Fro still didn't have a good LB score in week 9 locked in. Rogers has been a total stud and he's worth the pick in the 3rd. He's red hot playing possibly the best game of his career last week.Payne and Crowder were excellent picks at 4.8 and 5.5 - Payne is evolving quickly into a big play safety in Chicago's attacking D, and Crowder has been playing meaner than I've ever seen him play. He's in a high tackle role, my ONLY bone to pick here was that the DEN matchup is kinda weak, and compounds the week 9 LB uncertainty. He was my top non-bye LB left at the 4/5 turn and I considered him along with Cooper over my DE/DE combo.Can't argue with Griffin in the 6th. He's got a great nose for the ball in an aggressive D, perfect survivor safety. At this point, Fro can really afford to neglect safety for a while. I didn't love Ellis in the 7th, although he has been ringing up the sacks and by this point DE was drying up. Fro didn't have any so he had to take one. There wasn't really a clear #1 DE left at this point.Fro did the right thing and went DE/DE in the 8th/9th. Edwards career has been reborn in Oakland, and while he's cooled off, he could get hot again at any time. Carter was a real nice pick, underperforming, but he gets to attack the Steelers weak OTs this week.Boley and Carr were both terrific picks in the 10th/11th. Boley gives you a baseline, but he is still playing the seek and destroy style that made him a rare stud SLB last year. Carr has been getting tackles as the rookie corner dictates, but he's also a great physical tackler and aggressive corner in a cover 2. I like the James pick in the 12th. He's really coming on, and Fro had the wiggle room to take on some week 10 bye players. Pollard is very risky with the chance of him losing his job, and he's underperforming. I also didn't really see the need for him with two stud safeties who are past their bye. Still, he's a big play safety in theory and could put up some good flex numbers. Just seemed early for a likely flex player.Brooking is a fine baseline LB in the 14th, but was he needed? Seemed like Crowder--James/Vilma--Boley was a good baseline three + the upside of Harrison. I just don't know that Brooking will ever crack Fro's lineup. White was another semi-strange pick to me, but with Pollard's shaky standing, he helps hedge, but still hedge at a position where Fro could have afforded to wait for depth.Rogers and Richardson were excellent in the 16th/17th - Rogers was a top CB left on the board only because of the bye, and Richardson was another baseline DE, needed because Fro lacked a true stud DE.I would have went a different direction than Cason and Dobbins in 18/19. Granted, you had only taken on Vilma of week 9 bye players, but Cason has cooled from his hot start, and Dobbins is not really a big play LB, and honestly Im not sure he'll last as a starter. SD has a lot of options at ILB and Dobbins isnt playing disciplined football.Jackson was a nice pick in the 20th with the news about Kerney. He was playing real well early before losing his job back to Tapp, but with Seattle's pass rush, he'll get opportunities. Harris is a fine survivor CB, a ballhawk. The injury is an issue, but he's a pick six threat.O'Neal is another good ballhawk CB who should contribute a few INTs, but I'm not sure I like the Hart pick. He's not a big play safety and I think you were strong enough to stop at four safeties.Last pick was Howard, a decent hedge against a Rogers injury.This team is weak at DE, which I think dooms it in the long run. I will say that Fro got some baseline guys and some upside guys, and it could work out, although I would like his chances better with one less safety and one less LB and two more sack artists. Fro is going to need a DE or two to get hot in the second half, and Harrison absolutely has to keep blowing up QBs - if those things happen he has the firepower to make a run for the title. Fro also took on four players that are off in week 9 and four week 10, so he's a candidate to be a snakebit team that lets Tony advance.
 
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In the 5 hole, the always colorful Fullback Fro

Howard, Darren PHI DT - 7Rogers, Shaun CLE DT - 5Carter, Andre WAS DE - 10Edwards, Kalimba OAK DE - 5Ellis, Shaun NYJ DE - 5Jackson, Lawrence SEA DE - 4Richardson, Jay OAK DE - 5Boley, Michael ATL LB (Q) - 7Brooking, Keith ATL LB - 7Crowder, Channing MIA LB - 4Dobbins, Tim SDC LB - 9Harrison, James PIT LB - 6James, Bradie DAL LB - 10Vilma, Jonathan NOS LB - 9Carr, Brandon KCC CB - 6Cason, Antoine SDC CB - 9Harris, Al GBP CB - 8O'Neal, Deltha NEP CB - 4Rogers, Carlos WAS CB (Q) - 10Griffin, Michael TEN S - 6Hart, Clinton SDC S - 9Payne, Kevin CHI S - 8Pollard, Bernard KCC S - 6White, Marvin CIN S - 10
I haven't been in a lot of leagues with Fro, so I was definitely interested to see what I could learn about his MO from this draft.He started out with Vilma. I've made my bye week thoughts known, but Vilma's numbers made him worth an early first even with a zero in the first week.Harrison and Rogers in the next two picks. Ive shared my thoughts on Harrison/Woodley in SkyRattlers draft review. I like the pick, although combined with Vilma it means Fro still didn't have a good LB score in week 9 locked in. Rogers has been a total stud and he's worth the pick in the 3rd. He's red hot playing possibly the best game of his career last week.Payne and Crowder were excellent picks at 4.8 and 5.5 - Payne is evolving quickly into a big play safety in Chicago's attacking D, and Crowder has been playing meaner than I've ever seen him play. He's in a high tackle role, my ONLY bone to pick here was that the DEN matchup is kinda weak, and compounds the week 9 LB uncertainty. He was my top non-bye LB left at the 4/5 turn and I considered him along with Cooper over my DE/DE combo.Can't argue with Griffin in the 6th. He's got a great nose for the ball in an aggressive D, perfect survivor safety. At this point, Fro can really afford to neglect safety for a while. I didn't love Ellis in the 7th, although he has been ringing up the sacks and by this point DE was drying up. Fro didn't have any so he had to take one. There wasn't really a clear #1 DE left at this point.Fro did the right thing and went DE/DE in the 8th/9th. Edwards career has been reborn in Oakland, and while he's cooled off, he could get hot again at any time. Carter was a real nice pick, underperforming, but he gets to attack the Steelers weak OTs this week.Boley and Carr were both terrific picks in the 10th/11th. Boley gives you a baseline, but he is still playing the seek and destroy style that made him a rare stud SLB last year. Carr has been getting tackles as the rookie corner dictates, but he's also a great physical tackler and aggressive corner in a cover 2. I like the James pick in the 12th. He's really coming on, and Fro had the wiggle room to take on some week 10 bye players. Pollard is very risky with the chance of him losing his job, and he's underperforming. I also didn't really see the need for him with two stud safeties who are past their bye. Still, he's a big play safety in theory and could put up some good flex numbers. Just seemed early for a likely flex player.Brooking is a fine baseline LB in the 14th, but was he needed? Seemed like Crowder--James/Vilma--Boley was a good baseline three + the upside of Harrison. I just don't know that Brooking will ever crack Fro's lineup. White was another semi-strange pick to me, but with Pollard's shaky standing, he helps hedge, but still hedge at a position where Fro could have afforded to wait for depth.Rogers and Richardson were excellent in the 16th/17th - Rogers was a top CB left on the board only because of the bye, and Richardson was another baseline DE, needed because Fro lacked a true stud DE.I would have went a different direction than Cason and Dobbins in 18/19. Granted, you had only taken on Vilma of week 9 bye players, but Cason has cooled from his hot start, and Dobbins is not really a big play LB, and honestly Im not sure he'll last as a starter. SD has a lot of options at ILB and Dobbins isnt playing disciplined football.Jackson was a nice pick in the 20th with the news about Kerney. He was playing real well early before losing his job back to Tapp, but with Seattle's pass rush, he'll get opportunities. Harris is a fine survivor CB, a ballhawk. The injury is an issue, but he's a pick six threat.O'Neal is another good ballhawk CB who should contribute a few INTs, but I'm not sure I like the Hart pick. He's not a big play safety and I think you were strong enough to stop at four safeties.Last pick was Howard, a decent hedge against a Rogers injury.This team is weak at DE, which I think dooms it in the long run. I will say that Fro got some baseline guys and some upside guys, and it could work out, although I would like his chances better with one less safety and one less LB and two more sack artists. Fro is going to need a DE or two to get hot in the second half, and Harrison absolutely has to keep blowing up QBs - if those things happen he has the firepower to make a run for the title. Fro also took on four players that are off in week 9 and four week 10, so he's a candidate to be a snakebit team that lets Tony advance.
Bloom, can't wait to here what you think of my draft. It's always nice to here someone elses opnion on your work, thanks for taking the time to do it. :shock:
 
And now, the inimitable Chaos Commish choosing 6th

Ngata, Haloti BAL DT - 2Ratliff, Jay DAL DT - 10Burgess, Derrick OAK DE (D) - 5Geathers, Robert CIN DE - 10Hali, Tamba KCC DE - 6Parker, Juqua PHI DE (P) - 7Tuck, Justin NYG DE - 4Briggs, Lance CHI LB - 8Peterson, Mike JAC LB - 7Pierce, Antonio NYG LB - 4Ryans, DeMeco HOU LB - 2Session, Clint IND LB - 4Thornton, David TEN LB - 6Brown, Sheldon PHI CB - 7Clements, Nate SFO CB - 9Gay, Randall NOS CB - 9Greer, Jabari BUF CB - 6Lucas, Ken CAR CB - 9Winfield, Antoine MIN CB - 8Coleman, Erik ATL S - 7Harris, Chris CAR S - 9Huff, Michael OAK S (P) - 5Ndukwe, Nedu CIN S (P) - 10Wilson, Adrian ARI S - 7
CC is probably the closest to my talent evaluation and drafting philosophies in this group. I was happy that he was not picking right around me. If I had drawn a mid round pick instead, my team would have looked a lot like CC's.Tuck in the first. We were obviously thinking the same. Great all-around cornerstone DE.Briggs/Ryans in the 2nd/3rd, this is a great illustration of Benny's point about throwing ADP out the window. Briggs is certainly a good candidate to have a much better 2nd half than first half. Ryans has theoretical upside, but I'm afraid he's not going to look like himself again until next year.Wilson/Winfield in the 4th/5th - these are the premier corner and safety coming into the year. Wilson has battled injuries and Winfield has needed a couple of defensive TDs to justify his lofty status. Great players and anchors, although Wilson is another guy tarnished by injury.Parker/Peterson in the 6th/7th - Parker looked like an LB on his TD return, and although Philly's system makes for inconsistent plays week to week, Parker is a great value in the 6th in a survivor. Peterson had his most active game last week and seems to be returning to form, although the big plays arent there any more.Ndukwe was a sick value in 8th. The guy is just always around the ball. With Dexter Jackson in IR, he'll get more tackles. I was real bummed to see him go, i would have foregone a 2nd LB at the 8/9 turn to take him. Hali is a fine pick in the 9th on the theory that flipping him back to his comfort zone side will keep the sacks coming.Pierce was a terrific 10th rounder, although, yet another player who has battled an injury this year. Still, you have to love having 4 three down 4-3 MLBs. Ratliff is a fine first DT, the Cowboys get good pressure from their interior line. Ngata is a great combo DT with Ratliff. I think CC could have gotten a comparable combo later, but he always has clarity on who he wants, and an 11th and 12th is not too steep of a price to pay for your ideal DT combo (sans the studs of course). Burgess is going to probably end up being a wasted pick, but he's got the skills to produce top 5 weeks if he gets healthy.Coleman is uninspiring, especially with Ndukwe and Wilson (and CC's next pick) already on the roster. He's another guy getting numbers more for being the best tackler on a poor unit than good play. He'll hold down his job, but I don't if he'll get in CCs lineup very often. I LOVE the Harris pick. I was hamstrung at safety at this point in the draft or there's no way I would have passed on him. His numbers have lagged, but he's a ticking time bomb of IDP productivity.Session and Thornton were definitely two of the top LBs left in the 16th/17th - Session looks like a stud in the making, and both of these guys fly around the field and they are big play threats to balance out the tackle steady top 4.Geathers has been explosive in the past and he was a good pick as DE5 because you lose little if he continues to be kept out of the sack column. I was sad to see Greer go. I have no idea why he fell so far. Terrific value.Huff was a wasted pick. Not only because CC has great safeties, but he's so deep in the doghouse in Oakland that he wasn't even going to start if Wilson was out this week. Sheldon Brown is another good big play CB who will give you 2-3 scoring weeks in a survivor.Clements in the 22nd was just wrong. I already had two week 9 bye CBs. It killed me to let him fall. CC finished out with two more CBs, big play Lucas, and Gay. He waited until the 19th round to take his 2nd CB and we couldn't punish him for it. I love that kind of clarity, it was the same kind of theory that informed my decision to take only 1 LB in the first 5 rounds. Supply and Demand as CC would say.Chaos Commish has to be handicapped as an early favorite. The only possible flaws I can find with his team is that he has stacked his team with guys that are underperforming. If most of them don't bounce back, he will have a mediocre team. But with his array of big play guys in the secondary, he could still hang around even if the underachievers continue to lag.
 
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I agree on Clements and almost took him over Jammer at the time. But I went in only wanting 4 CB's and loading up at DE, that I could not draft Clements. Thought about 1 DT but stayed course. Great pick

 
Picking 7th... tec79

Bannan, Justin BAL DT - 2Robbins, Fred NYG DT (P) - 4Williams, Kevin MIN DT - 8Carter, Kevin TBB DE - 10Devries, Jared DET DE - 4Kampman, Aaron GBP DE - 8Scott, Trevor OAK DE - 5Tapp, Darryl SEA DE - 4Diles, Zach HOU LB (Q) - 2Ellis, Greg DAL LB - 10Hill, Leroy SEA LB - 4Jeanty, Rashad CIN LB (Q) - 10Morrison, Kirk OAK LB - 5Spikes, Takeo SFO LB - 9Tatupu, Lofa SEA LB (Q) - 4Graham, Corey CHI CB - 8Harper, Nick TEN CB - 6Hobbs, Ellis NEP CB (Q) - 4Jackson, Marlin IND CB (I) - 4Wilson, Josh SEA CB - 4Allen, Jason MIA S - 4Bullocks, Daniel DET S - 4Collins, Nick GBP S - 8Russell, Brian SEA S - 4
Tec79 is the first player to have a built in excuse upon elimination. Losing your 7th round pick (Marlin Jackson) within a day of drafting him is just cruel.I can't argue with Kirk Morrison at 1.07. I would have taken Suggs because the LBs seemed like a great plateau after DJ and Willis and I would have been afraid that the rest of the true stud DEs would be gone by the time I picked at 2.06, but Morrison is worthy of a first. Kampman is arguably the same caliber of player as Suggs and he lasted to 2.06 so it all comes out in the wash.Diles is an interesting third rounder. His play and numbers speak for themselves, but he has been benefitting from Demeco Ryans being slowed, and if Ryans bounces back at all, Diles numbers could take a hit. Even if he does keep it up, he's not a huge value in the 3rd. I would have gone with an LB with a better rep like Urlacher.I have to say while Nick Collins numbers have been outstanding, I still don't necessarily think of him as an elite safety. He's had some big plays this year, but I dont know if he'll keep it up. I don't have him any higher than Griffin, who went in the 6th. I would have gone Jones, but it was the right position to take there. Leroy Hill is a decent LB3, playing his butt off, but not getting to the QB like he has in the past.Harper and Jackson looked like it was going to be the best CB combo and it was a good use of back to back picks. Harper gives you a piece of that frenzied Titans D. I loved the Corey Graham pick, but what do I know? Looks like Vasher will start after all. I still think this guy plays the game in the way makes for a good IDP corner, and I think he's better for the Bears defense than Vasher on run downs. He's a much more physical corner. Everyone, take advantage of this news on Vasher/Graham to buy Graham in dynasty leagues. Poor Tec. Three straight CB picks early amount to one week 9 starter.Tatupu was a risky pick. He's battling injuries of all sorts, and he's no lock to play this week, or play well when he does return to the lineup. I would have really liked to see a DD Lewis pick late to hedge this pick.I cant really argue with Kevin Williams. You know you'll get him at least 4 weeks. He has the ability to put up the largest point total of ANY position in any week, and he's a freakin DT. Without the suspension hanging over him, he's a 3rd rounder. Maybe a 2nd.Bullocks works as an 11th round safety. He's not a stud tackler or a ballhawk, but he's a great baseline S2. Tapp is a baller, and he had a MASSIVE game last year with a cast on his hand. I like the pick. The news on Kerney makes this a value pick.I wasnt a big fan of the Robbins pick. He's banged up and getting sacks more on being part of an attacking DL than great rush skills of his own. With Kevin Williams, all you really needed was a baseline DT or 2 late to hedge against the suspension (like the Bannan pick, perfect) instead of a valuable mid round pick on an injured somewhat flukish performer.Wilson and Devries was a very solid pair of picks. Wilson looks like the kind of young corner who will continue to get picked on, make tackles, and convert an occasional big play. Devries is a grinder who gets sacks with effort, and has a good presence in the run game to cover for Tapp coming up empty sometimes.Russell is very uninspiring, but it seems like he's not in danger of losing his job. I just think mediocre players like Russell aren't much help in survivor leagues. Spikes lasted too long, although his run of INTs was kind of fluky, so the possibility of the disappointing second half is priced in.Bannan was kind of overkill after Robbins, but I suppose you dont want to be left with only one DT if Williams suspension comes down. Jeanty is another fine depth LB who should give insurance of 9-12 point weeks at flex if Tatupu continues to be limited and Spikes is quiet. Scott and Allen were good uses of late picks in the 20th and 21st. Scott is a good pick in the what the heck mold, he's already had one huge game and he looks like a natural pass rusher. With Burgess out he'll get more shots to made an impact. Allen is a very talented player, he can't seem to find a home between S and CB. Last week was one of the best games of his career and there is opportunity to be had in that secondary.Hobbs was a nice late CB pick (even though he's banged up) simply on the chance of the return TD added to the chances of the big play on D. Same with Ellis and his chances of a multisack game which would be a top 10-15 week at LB. Carter is a fine 5th end and he's a decent baseline guy to offset Scott being a situational guy.I have to admit when I look over Tec's roster, nothing really stands out as a particularly strong group (except maybe DT, but at the cost of a good player elsewhere) or a particularly weak group (but i dont love the safeties). The combination of losing Jackson and the lack of picks with a lot of upside really caps the potential of this team to finish on top, but its solidly constructed and could make it to the final 4.
 
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8th, Benny Beaver, who was in the big play league with me and drafted well. I knew he'd bring it.

Jackson, Grady ATL DT (Q) - 7Peko, Domata CIN DT (P) - 10Harvey, Derrick JAC DE - 7Johnson, Charles CAR DE - 9Long, Chris STL DE - 5Montgomery, Mike GBP DE - 8Warren, Ty NEP DE - 4Ayodele, Akinola MIA LB - 4Jackson, D'Qwell CLE LB - 5Keiaho, Freddie IND LB (Q) - 4Mayo, Jerod NEP LB - 4Peterson, Julian SEA LB - 4Tinoisamoa, Pisa STL LB - 5Brown, Fakhir STL CB - 5Buchanon, Phillip TBB CB - 10Robinson, Dunta HOU CB - 2Smoot, Fred WAS CB (P) - 10Walker, Frank BAL CB (Q) - 2Leonhard, Jim BAL S - 2Meriweather, Brandon NEP S - 4Piscitelli, Sabby TBB S - 10Rhodes, Kerry NYJ S - 5Rouse, Aaron GBP S - 8Scott, Bryan BUF S - 6
Benny did a great job recapping his own team and strategy. I love the attitude of taking players you like and throwing ADP out the window. Jackson has played inspired football and will start adding big plays to his good tackle totals. Long looks already looks like a stud DE. Peterson was a nice 3rd rounder, survivor magnifies his value as a big play LB. Rhodes was a shrewd pick. He's a former elite safety who just started playing and producing like he did during his heyday the last two weeks.I can't say I loved Warren or Mayo where they went. Warren is more of a point of attack DE. He does provide a great baseline of tackles, and he's only two years removed from a monster season, but baseline tackle guys are available a lot later than the 5th. I would have focused on a DE who had the potential for top 5 weeks here, or just waited on DE. Mayo started out strong, and he's put up good tackle numbers, but I would have preferred an LB with higher peaks because your depth will cover the valleys.Meriweather gave you a huge chunk of the NE D and they do have a middling to weak schedule left. He is aggressive and could come up with some big plays, but the 7th round is for more sure things. Keiaho is a lot like Mayo - tackles missing the big plays. he's also banged up and has a spotty injury history.I can't say Im on board with the Piscitelli pick either (but I love saying his name). He did have a good week early on, but he's been injured here and there and hasnt really look like a stud in the making when he's been on the field. Also, Phillips could come back in 4 weeks and give you your 9th round pick for only three weeks of this contest. I do however love the Johnson pick, with Warren you could afford all upside DEs.Pisa has been playing inspired since Haslett took over and he's had one of the bigger LB games of the year, cant argue with him in the 11. I REALLY wanted Dunta at 12.12. I was very sad when you took him. If Cromartie ends up being a stud, Ill thank you, because he wouldnt have been on my team if Robinson had fallen. He's a perfectly acceptable CB1 and you got him in the 12th, great work.Fahkir Brown also has a big play profile and he's a fine CB2 as you started to catch up there, but I'm not sure about Scott in the 13th. This was a pick like Piscitelli, and at the same position. The Bills have done a lot of shuffling at safety and while he came on with that sack last week, I don't know if he'll be a stable presence in the lineup. You can afford one risk like this at any position, but now you have two at safety, in addition to an unproven S2. Peko is a fine DT1, except that's he's banged up. he might not give you anything until week 11. Montgomery might get more opportunity with KGB cut, but he hasn't posted a sack this year. With Warren lacking great upside and Johnson on bye this week, a sack specialist would have been more in order here.Harvey is exactly the kind of upside DE that made more sense than Montgomery. He's sure to get more seasoned as his rookie year goes on and he's a good "what the heck" pick.Rouse is another possibly wasted pick at safety with Bigby's return. After an early pick of Rhodes, this position is becoming a pick hog even though you dont have great strength there. Leonhard has been decent, but Landry could return and rob him of value. Another dicey safety.Ayodele lasted too long and he's a good late baseline LB, a firewall against injury or poor weeks lining up. I also liked the Walker pick, he's likely to start in an aggressive D as long as McAlister is out, which could be the rest of the year. He's been a good tackler so far, although he's banged up now.Walker's missed practices should have kept Benny from doubling on week 10 bye CBs, he could be left with only 2 CBs going in week 10. Smoot and Buchanon are both good ballhawks, so they could make it up for it with INTs this week. I didnt understand the Jackson pick, his limited upside is not worth the risk of the 4 game suspension and his injury status .I think Benny started very strong, then stumbled in the 5th to 9th rounds. I don't see a lot of names that will post top 5 weeks on his roster. He's also got a mess at safety even through he threw six picks at the position. I see a limited future for his team unless he gets some things to bounce his way, like a few defensive TDs or some big games from unlikely sources.
 
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Thanks for the analysis Bloom.

Well this will make it easier to do my own write up. Overall I'm pleased with my team, aside from my mistake in taking Bullitt. I do have a few more week 9, 10 bye guys than I had intended but they are mostly late rounds picks whose value overshadowed their bye week.

Picking 3rd... Sky Rattlers

Bernard, Rocky SEA DT - 4

Clancy, Kendrick NOS DT - 9

Castillo, Luis SDC DE - 9

Coleman, Kenyon NYJ DE - 5

Hall, James STL DE - 5

Mathis, Robert IND DE - 4

Spicer, Paul JAC DE - 7

Cooper, Stephen SDC LB - 9

Harris, Napoleon MIN LB - 8

Lawson, Manny SFO LB - 9

Thomas, Bryan NYJ LB - 5

Williams, DJ DEN LB - 8

Winborn, Jamie DEN LB - 8

Woodley, LaMarr PIT LB (P) - 6

Bodden, Leigh DET CB - 4

Gamble, Chris CAR CB - 9

Hall, Deangelo OAK CB - 5

Joseph, Johnathan CIN CB - 10

Vasher, Nathan CHI CB (P) - 8

Bullitt, Melvin IND S - 4

Dawkins, Brian PHI S - 7

Hamlin, Ken DAL S - 10

Milloy, Lawyer ATL S - 7

Page, Jarrad KCC S (P) - 6
SR came out of the gate with DJ Williams, a fine cornerstone, a guy who has arrived and is another example of talent eventually finding the opportunity and role to be a IDP stud, although he is greatly benefitted by being the best tackler on a terrible defense.To start the draft I had predrafted Willis, Williams and Tuck, and I was fully expecting to get Tuck. I knew the value that having a strong DE position would represent, but Bloom put an end to that strategy by taking Mario first. I'm very happy with the consistant top tier output that Williams will be providing

at the 2/3 turn, he went Woodley/Mathis. I was mystified by Woodley and Harrison falling to the late 2nd. I suppose you could cite the Steelers tough second half schedule as a reason to avoid the Steelers OLBs, but to me they are exactly what you want in survivor - a 10 or 15 point play waiting to happen. Mathis was a saavy pick simply because he likely brings 3 or 4 top 10 DE weeks, which are a commodity.

I was shocked when Woodley fell to me at 2.10. He was in my top 5 choices overall. To get him at pick 22 I consider a major steal. I now know that my LBs will be a major strength for me. Mathis was the best DE still on the board and they were going fast and furious so I couldn't wait any longer to grab my first. And Bloom took the only other player that I would have considered in this slot when he grabbed Gibril Wilson a couple picks earlier. Mathis seems to put up a handful of 20-30 point weeks every year. Hopefully he still has a few left in the tank this season.

the 4/5 turn was DHall/Cooper. I was wary of Hall because he has inflated numbers based on being picked on unmercifully. I'm not saying he won't continue to get singled out. I just have a mental block on taking players early whose value is more because of bad play than good play. Cooper is a possible LB1, the week 9 bye was more than offset by him falling to the 5th. If I hadnt been compelled to go DE/DE at my turn I would have taken Cooper.

I'll defend my Hall selection by stating simply that he hasn't scored lower than 10.5 points in any week. Unlike most CBs he's not really a big play guy, he's actually a baseline guy that uses tackles and passes defended as his bread and butter. His baseline this year is simply up around 11-12 points per week with the occaisional big week in the high teens. Cooper as a LB3 on my team is great value. He's a top 15 LB based on average points per week.

6/7 was Gamble/Dawkins. Gamble is a fine pick because even though the big plays have tapered off, he's been compensating with big tackle numbers. I probably would have taken Mikell over Dawkins, but they both merited a 7th as two of the last remaining #1 safeties.

Taking Gamble means I now have two CBs before most teams have even taken their first. Classic IDP drafting strategy states that you don't select CBs high because it's very difficult to predict their production. I've always followed that before but with this unique draft I decided that rule was one that had to be broken. We're in the middle of the season and we're no longer guessing who is getting playing time. The production pattern for these players has a much more tangible reality to it. Hall and Gamble are producing very well this year. There is no obvious reason to think that it will stop. That doesn't mean it can't but the odds are on my side here. So now after 6 picks I have 6 starters who are all averaging 12+ points through 8 weeks this season. Dawkins is basically a safe pick to balance out all the boom/bust guys I have so far.

8/9 was JHall/Bullitt - with Little ailing, Hall was a solid pick. He's not as exciting as Freeney/Dumervil/Carter in terms of explosive weeks, but he'll probably be more consistent. Bullitt was an accident, but one that could be a happy accident. Bob Sanders is no sure thing to stay healthy, and we know that Bullitt can put up top 10 numbers in his stead - not to mention Indy wanting to get him more involved even with Sanders back.

It was at this point in the draft that I felt I started losing control. With my first seven picks I was very excited about each one. There is nothing exciting about James Hall and Melvin Bullitt was a mistake that I hope doesn't cost me too much. I needed to start building my DEs and Hall was someone who'd been getting 6.7 points per week. Not great but at this point no one was going to be a difference maker. What I needed to hope for was to find 4 guys who who put up the rare12-15 point game and hope they don't do it on the same weeks. I was all set to draft Milloy instead of Bullitt here but then talked myself into staying with the younger and riskier type players I had been primarily picking. As explained in an earlier post, I had been drinking because it was my birthday and Bullitt ended up being my pick.

10/11 Milloy/Bodden - Milloy is a fine S2, not too exciting, Bodden is getting by on rep in IDP circles, but in the 11th, he's not a terrible pick since he's not that far removed from his better days.

As I said already I had almost selected Milloy last round and to see him still available made it easy to choose him here. Having to pick this boring safety was my punishment for the Bullitt botch job. But I don't think Bloom is giving Bodden the credit he deserves. He is a 20-30th ranked CB based on average or total points so far this year but he wasn't a starter to begin the year. He is now and for the last 3 weeks he has been a top 10 CB. I feel adding Bodden as my CB3 really sets my ground of CBs are the best in this draft and gives me a cushion at this position that will help balance my weakness at DE.

12/13 Winborn/Bernard - I thought it was a little early to pick Winborn. You can't argue with Boss Bailey's numbers in that spot though, and Winborn also notched a sack before the bye week. In this league, if you liked a player, you couldn't assume others didn't like him too. I just have a mental block against believing in some of these so-so players that put up legit IDP numbers in that Denver defense. Bernard is a fine DT1 with upside.

It's always hard to predict when "early" is in a draft like this. I decided that with Boss Bailey on IR now that Winborn was stepping into a good situation. Bernard has the potential for being a top 5 so I'm happy with him as my primary DT.

14/15 Page/Spicer - Page is banged up and went at a discount. His upside was probably worth the risk in the 14th. Spicer was a nice 15th round pick. He's not a highlight reel guy, but he makes plays with hustle and energy, and he could come on in the 2nd half.

Page is banged up and that means he could either really hurt a position that until this point is probably below average, or he could really turn the tide and save the position overall. Page, Dawkins and Milloy have so far put up top 15 points at safety. Just have to hope that continues. Spicer is another of my DE quad that almost need to behave as a single person.

16/17 Harris/Coleman - meh. Harris has little upside imo. Coleman is a good baseline DE, but they were also available later in the draft.

Harris is moving into the starting MLB spot in Minnesota and he got 115 tackles last year. At round 16 to get a guy with a chance to product like that I'm happy. Coleman is another of the DE squad like Spicer and Hall before him. None exciting but hope they can produce as a tandom.

18/19 Joseph/Lawson - Nice picks and taking advantage of the epidemic of bye players falling too far. Joseph is aggressive and he's already made a huge play this year, and Lawson is underrated because he's been injured.

It was at this point that some players started sliding too far due to their bye week. I picked four straight guys with a bye week to contend with so clearly I decided that the risk was worth it. Joseph makes a great CB4, especially with my first 3 guys. I'm hoping his injuries are behind him and maybe he can start adding some INTs to his scoreline. Lawson is a big play LB when he is healthy. Two or three mid teen scores from him for the entire 8 weeks and I'll consider him a success.

20/21 Clancy/Hamlin - a good baseline DT and baseline safety, more value because of the byes.

I decided to grab my backup DT slightly early because Clancy has been performing like a top 10 at his position. Between him and Rocky Bernard it's really going to be nice getting some solid points from the DT position. I got a 0 for all 8 weeks in the first half of the year due to Kelly Gregg's trip to the IR. Hamlin is a basline guy for me in case Bullitt doesn't get to play much and Page's injury lingers.

22/23 BThomas/Vasher - Bryan Thomas is another perfect survivor LB, considered him over Wimbley, but I already had Bowens. Vasher is a ballhawk. The injury and chance that Graham pushes him back to nickel are risks, but this is a 23rd round pick, so he works.

Here's hoping that Thomas can keep racking up sacks in the last half of the year. If he can finish with another 4 sacks in the last half of the year he'll be a great pick. Vasher is a great value but only if he can push Graham back to his nickel spot. I think Vasher success in year's past should give him the edge to do just that and as a CB5 it's worth the risk.

24 Castillo - A good player, so I cant argue, but I would have preferred a sack artist since you already took a baseline DE in Coleman.

I had Kevin Carter and Antonio Smith predrafted ahead of Castillo but they just didn't make it that far. Atleast he's a starter and so maybe he can get lucky and get 2-3 sacks in the last half of the season.
 

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