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2009's IDP Sleepers Thread (1 Viewer)

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Footballguy
With change, comes opportunity:

1) Scheme Change

2) Regime Change

3) Next In Line Change

4) Player Position Change

5) Injury Opportunity Change

6) Player Team Change

And, not change related but "from out of left field" related:

1) The League Scoring System dictates the opportunity, and

2) The Little Known, Unknown (Off The Radar) Players

Who's gonna be this year's Josh Wilson, CB-SEA? :excited: If you don't know who Josh is, you probably didn't own him and your League doesn't include a KR position, or better yet, doesn't include KR points as position points.

So, let's start out with some ideas about the change curve presenting the on the field reps curve. This ties into the new Head Coaching, Position Coaching, Scheme changing and Regime changing ideas....as the NFL has never had so many off-season changes.

Where are this year's IDP Diamonds?

 
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ok I dont know if I would classify this guy as a sleeper but Lawerence Timmons LB (PIT).....maybe he takes the starting job this year? He's a beast in what we've seen of him.

Also, Jason Jones DL (DET), has been mentioned as a big sleeper.

 
I'll start by listing a couple of guys that have sprung up in different threads:

1) *Wake, Cameron, LB-MIA is a Canadian League transfer with an unknown ETA in MIA.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=9831878

2) Gholston, Vernon, LB-NYJ is quite the rage due to a sheme change (from 4-3 to 3-4); see dedicate thread.

3) Witherspoon, Will, LB-STL: looks like a move back to the WLB in '09; check you scoring system as he's tackle dependent. Evidently, standard FBG's scoring makes him more valuable than a tackle heavy system. A borderline #1/#2 if he's able to roam the backside.

 
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PitbullTD said:
ok I dont know if I would classify this guy as a sleeper but Lawerence Timmons LB (PIT).....maybe he takes the starting job this year? He's a beast in what we've seen of him.

Also, Jason Jones DL (DET), has been mentioned as a big sleeper.
There's a Jason Jones, DT-TEN who's quite productive in the DT rotation in TEN....along with Tony Brown, DT-TEN. Both these guys rotate in-out with Albert Haynesworth, who's a likely UFA.Both these guys are candidates for big time increased numbers.

Timmons is stuck behind Farrior and a lot of guys have given up on him....see salary Leagues. He's also an ILB so his tackle numbers are what counts. He could see increased time, in speciality packages or due to Farrior's increased age/injury....he's "in line" with an ETA that's out there....depending on the 2010 FA agreements maybe. Farrior is a Team Captiain... a heart and soul of the DEF...so he's probably gonna be there for a bit longer.....unless, of course, he arrives at the other ILB spot. He could work into the lineup at either ILB spot and never leave.


 
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PitbullTD said:
ok I dont know if I would classify this guy as a sleeper but Lawerence Timmons LB (PIT).....maybe he takes the starting job this year? He's a beast in what we've seen of him.

Also, Jason Jones DL (DET), has been mentioned as a big sleeper.
There's a Jason Jones, DT-TEN who's quite productive in the DT rotation in TEN....along with Tony Brown, DT-TEN. Both these guys rotate in-out with Albert Haynesworth, who's a likely UFA.Both these guys are candidates for big time increased numbers.

Timmons is stuck behind Farrior and a lot of guys have given up on him....see salary Leagues. He's also an ILB so his tackle numbers are what counts. He could see increased time, in speciality packages or due to Farrior's increased age/injury....he's "in line" with an ETA that's out there....depending on the 2010 FA agreements maybe. Farrior is a Team Captiain... a heart and soul of the DEF...so he's probably gonna be there for a bit longer.....unless, of course, he arrives at the other ILB spot. He could work into the lineup at either ILB spot and never leave.

Larry Foote is nothing special. I could see Timmons taking his starting spot next year.
 
What about Cliff Avril DE Lions?From Rotoworld:

According to NFL.com's Adam Schefter, DE Cliff Avril is one of the Lions' three untouchable players as they begin to rebuild.Schefter says Calvin Johnson and Ernie Sims are the other two, with everyone else in play. It appears Avril, who had four fumbles and five sacks as a 2008 rookie, will be the Lions' starting right defensive end next season.
 
2) Gholston, Vernon, LB-NYJ is quite the rage due to a sheme change (from 4-3 to 3-4); see dedicate thread.
The Jets were a 3-4 under Mangini and will continue to be a 3-4 under Rex Ryan. The excitement comes from Ryan's praise of Gholston in his press conference rather than an alignment change.
 
Yes I meant Jones from TEN, sorry....and on Timmons I was talking about him replacing Foote at the ILB spot. It could definitely happen this year.

I was going to list Avril, but I sort of feel he is no longer a sleeper, and may become over valued with that statement by Detroit. Also, with his size and the fact that Gunther and GM have said the Defense needs to get Bigger Everywhere I see him being moved to a Linebacker roll. Not that I think that would be a bad thing for him. Hes still very young.

 
2) Gholston, Vernon, LB-NYJ is quite the rage due to a sheme change (from 4-3 to 3-4); see dedicate thread.
The Jets were a 3-4 under Mangini and will continue to be a 3-4 under Rex Ryan. The excitement comes from Ryan's praise of Gholston in his press conference rather than an alignment change.
The excitement comes from the Jets becoming a multiple front team and Gholston possibly being listed as a DE even though he'd be standing-up much of the time, ala Suggs.
 
What about Cliff Avril DE Lions?From Rotoworld:

According to NFL.com's Adam Schefter, DE Cliff Avril is one of the Lions' three untouchable players as they begin to rebuild.Schefter says Calvin Johnson and Ernie Sims are the other two, with everyone else in play. It appears Avril, who had four fumbles and five sacks as a 2008 rookie, will be the Lions' starting right defensive end next season.
Gunther's a 3-4 guy from way back, so even though they'll likely start out in a 4-3 due to personnel, they may switch to a 3-4 later.For now, Avril will likely start at RE but, down the road, I could see him as an OLB.
 
PitbullTD said:
ok I dont know if I would classify this guy as a sleeper but Lawerence Timmons LB (PIT).....maybe he takes the starting job this year? He's a beast in what we've seen of him.

Also, Jason Jones DL (DET), has been mentioned as a big sleeper.
There's a Jason Jones, DT-TEN who's quite productive in the DT rotation in TEN....along with Tony Brown, DT-TEN. Both these guys rotate in-out with Albert Haynesworth, who's a likely UFA.Both these guys are candidates for big time increased numbers.

Timmons is stuck behind Farrior and a lot of guys have given up on him....see salary Leagues. He's also an ILB so his tackle numbers are what counts. He could see increased time, in speciality packages or due to Farrior's increased age/injury....he's "in line" with an ETA that's out there....depending on the 2010 FA agreements maybe. Farrior is a Team Captiain... a heart and soul of the DEF...so he's probably gonna be there for a bit longer.....unless, of course, he arrives at the other ILB spot. He could work into the lineup at either ILB spot and never leave.

I think that, although Timmons has had some spot duty at OLB, the anticipation is that he could possibly take over Foote's ILB spot this coming year. He may eventually move over if Farrior leaves, but the main thing is hopefully getting that crack at being a starting 3 down ILB.
 
PitbullTD said:
ok I dont know if I would classify this guy as a sleeper but Lawerence Timmons LB (PIT).....maybe he takes the starting job this year? He's a beast in what we've seen of him.

Also, Jason Jones DL (DET), has been mentioned as a big sleeper.
There's a Jason Jones, DT-TEN who's quite productive in the DT rotation in TEN....along with Tony Brown, DT-TEN. Both these guys rotate in-out with Albert Haynesworth, who's a likely UFA.Both these guys are candidates for big time increased numbers.

Timmons is stuck behind Farrior and a lot of guys have given up on him....see salary Leagues. He's also an ILB so his tackle numbers are what counts. He could see increased time, in speciality packages or due to Farrior's increased age/injury....he's "in line" with an ETA that's out there....depending on the 2010 FA agreements maybe. Farrior is a Team Captiain... a heart and soul of the DEF...so he's probably gonna be there for a bit longer.....unless, of course, he arrives at the other ILB spot. He could work into the lineup at either ILB spot and never leave.

Timmons has been playing some OLB (even listed at DE in one game book) and on the ILB side would probably replace Foote, not Farrior. It is evident watching games that he is all over the place making plays, and will be a solid performer once he gets his shot. He was phased in more over the year and I have to think given age and his first round draft status he will be given a shot this year. I am certainly not ready to give up on him yet.
 
Been going back and picking up on the FBG's past season's weekly content:

1) Monopoly

2) Weeks 9-13: Reading the DEF

3] Week 17; Eyes Of The Guru

4) Borbely;s Buy Low, Sell High

5) Bob McGaw's Thread: 2008 Up & Down

One guy who seems to surface is Guyton, Gary, ILB-NEP. He's mentioned a couple of times and looks to be a good pickup if you've got some roster space in a deep IDP League. Obviously, Lofton, Curtis amd Mayo, Jerod are rostered players in IDP Leagues and both are heavy pick-ups in re-drafts for 2009. :towelwave:

 
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I'm going to monitor the Buccaneers defense this offseason especially if they let go of an aging Derrick Brooks.

Geno Hayes may benefit should that happen.

 
Akeem Jordan was on a tear to end the season, I'm sure most of you know. Extrapolate Akeem's stats from w12 to the Conference Championship you get a pace that would put him at 80 solos and 18 assists in a 16 game season. Very close to what Stewart Bradley produced, but a lot lesser of a price tag

 
I'd put Richard Marshall in list list. Apparently Lucas might be on his way out and, dare I say, Marshall may finally get in the lineup. Like most folks, I've held Marshall for a while hoping for this time. Marshall himself is not a sleeper, but the departure of Lucas should raise his stock considerably.

Thread is here

 
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ok I dont know if I would classify this guy as a sleeper but Lawerence Timmons LB (PIT).....maybe he takes the starting job this year? He's a beast in what we've seen of him.

Also, Jason Jones DL (DET), has been mentioned as a big sleeper.
There's a Jason Jones, DT-TEN who's quite productive in the DT rotation in TEN....along with Tony Brown, DT-TEN. Both these guys rotate in-out with Albert Haynesworth, who's a likely UFA.Both these guys are candidates for big time increased numbers.

Timmons is stuck behind Farrior and a lot of guys have given up on him....see salary Leagues. He's also an ILB so his tackle numbers are what counts. He could see increased time, in speciality packages or due to Farrior's increased age/injury....he's "in line" with an ETA that's out there....depending on the 2010 FA agreements maybe. Farrior is a Team Captiain... a heart and soul of the DEF...so he's probably gonna be there for a bit longer.....unless, of course, he arrives at the other ILB spot. He could work into the lineup at either ILB spot and never leave.

I think that, although Timmons has had some spot duty at OLB, the anticipation is that he could possibly take over Foote's ILB spot this coming year. He may eventually move over if Farrior leaves, but the main thing is hopefully getting that crack at being a starting 3 down ILB.
Cat's officially out of the bag on Timmons as a stand alone thread reports that Foote wants of PIT.
 
Green Bay's change to a 3-4 will affect multiple players.

AJ Hawk - Still undecided as to whether he plays ILB or OLB as reports have surfaced for both switches. If he plays ILB alongside Barnett, I'm expecting a bit of an upswing in tackle numbers. A move to OLB likely means an opposite move in numbers.

Aaron Kampman - Kampman is too small to play 3-4 DE so he probably moves to OLB. This is terrible news as Kampman would move from a perennial top 15 DL to a LB3 or LB4 with plenty of question marks. As a Kampman owner myself, I'm holding out for the possibility of a trade but it seems unlikely as this point.

Brandon Chillar / Brady Poppinga - One of this guys probably gets a shot at part time OLB. If one can emerge, they probably see marginal numbers but better than the part time SAM LB numbers they see now.

Johnny Jolly / Mike Montogomery / Justin Harrell - Harrell probably gets the NT by default. Jolly and Montogomery probably make 3-4 end.

 
Green Bay's change to a 3-4 will affect multiple players.

AJ Hawk - Still undecided as to whether he plays ILB or OLB as reports have surfaced for both switches. If he plays ILB alongside Barnett, I'm expecting a bit of an upswing in tackle numbers. A move to OLB likely means an opposite move in numbers.

Aaron Kampman - Kampman is too small to play 3-4 DE so he probably moves to OLB. This is terrible news as Kampman would move from a perennial top 15 DL to a LB3 or LB4 with plenty of question marks. As a Kampman owner myself, I'm holding out for the possibility of a trade but it seems unlikely as this point.

Brandon Chillar / Brady Poppinga - One of this guys probably gets a shot at part time OLB. If one can emerge, they probably see marginal numbers but better than the part time SAM LB numbers they see now.

Johnny Jolly / Mike Montogomery / Justin Harrell - Harrell probably gets the NT by default. Jolly and Montogomery probably make 3-4 end.
I enjoy the Kampman head scratcher. The traditional take is that he's toast but I'm a bit more optimistic....a good/great motor OLB who is the only player on that roster who can attack the QB. Aaron played in space in college. I'm thinking that he has a shot at being the opposite....that he's a sleeper, maybe even a up-sider hidden in sheep's clothing. For every trade there's a partner. If he's not worth a late rookie choice (the guys that are seldom on a FFB roster at year's end), I'm a monkies Uncle.


 
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3) Witherspoon, Will, LB-STL: looks like a move back to the WLB in '09; check you scoring system as he's tackle dependent. Evidently, standard FBG's scoring makes him more valuable than a tackle heavy system. A borderline #1/#2 if he's able to roam the backside.
Steve Spagnuolo can only help right?
 
Green Bay's change to a 3-4 will affect multiple players.

AJ Hawk - Still undecided as to whether he plays ILB or OLB as reports have surfaced for both switches. If he plays ILB alongside Barnett, I'm expecting a bit of an upswing in tackle numbers. A move to OLB likely means an opposite move in numbers.

Aaron Kampman - Kampman is too small to play 3-4 DE so he probably moves to OLB. This is terrible news as Kampman would move from a perennial top 15 DL to a LB3 or LB4 with plenty of question marks. As a Kampman owner myself, I'm holding out for the possibility of a trade but it seems unlikely as this point.

Brandon Chillar / Brady Poppinga - One of this guys probably gets a shot at part time OLB. If one can emerge, they probably see marginal numbers but better than the part time SAM LB numbers they see now.

Johnny Jolly / Mike Montogomery / Justin Harrell - Harrell probably gets the NT by default. Jolly and Montogomery probably make 3-4 end.
I enjoy the Kampman head scratcher. The traditional take is that he's toast but I'm a bit more optimistic....a good/great motor OLB who is the only player on that roster who can attack the QB. Aaron played in space in college. I'm thinking that he has a shot at being the opposite....that he's a sleeper, maybe even a up-sider hidden in sheep's clothing. For every trade there's a partner. If he's not worth a late rookie choice (the guys that are seldom on a FFB roster at year's end), I'm a monkies Uncle.

I think he'll be fine as a player, but losing DE eligibility is bad for his relative value.
 
If Brooks gets let go, I look for Cato June to have a big year. *hopefully* hes on my roster
Ah yeah I should've mentioned him. Good sleeper pick right there.
What about Quincy Black? Is he still in the Bucs LB picture?
Inquiring minds want to know. I have been holding him for over a year in my 16 team dynasty.
It's an entirely new coaching staff, so little is clear with the reserve players yet. What is certain is that Jim Bates' scheme won't be as favorable to the WLB as the Tampa-2 was. Barrett Ruud is entrenched in the middle now, so it would certainly appear that Quincy Black is looking at a small chance of LB3 value (at best).
 
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Green Bay's change to a 3-4 will affect multiple players.AJ Hawk - Still undecided as to whether he plays ILB or OLB as reports have surfaced for both switches. If he plays ILB alongside Barnett, I'm expecting a bit of an upswing in tackle numbers. A move to OLB likely means an opposite move in numbers.Aaron Kampman - Kampman is too small to play 3-4 DE so he probably moves to OLB. This is terrible news as Kampman would move from a perennial top 15 DL to a LB3 or LB4 with plenty of question marks. As a Kampman owner myself, I'm holding out for the possibility of a trade but it seems unlikely as this point.Brandon Chillar / Brady Poppinga - One of this guys probably gets a shot at part time OLB. If one can emerge, they probably see marginal numbers but better than the part time SAM LB numbers they see now.Johnny Jolly / Mike Montogomery / Justin Harrell - Harrell probably gets the NT by default. Jolly and Montogomery probably make 3-4 end.
A saw a blurb that Desmond Bishop might be an ILB if AJ Hawk goes to OLB.
 
Anyone have any thoughts on Jacob Ford, DE, TEN? 7 sacks in his rookie season all coming in the last 9 games.

 
Chris Johnson, CB, Oakland.

A good player they re-signed, and will spend 2009 across from Asomougha, on a defense that won't keep people off the field. Will be a top 5 fantasy CB next year.

 
dan morgan, lb saints *waiver wire gem*

dude took the year off last year- which could only help him - and not because of injury. he's on the roster of a team that needs help at LB. he's talking about how he's ready to comeback.

 
dan morgan, lb saints *waiver wire gem*dude took the year off last year- which could only help him - and not because of injury. he's on the roster of a team that needs help at LB. he's talking about how he's ready to comeback.
Like the talent, but there's always the chance that if someone pats him on the back too hard, he forgets where he is.
 
Green Bay's change to a 3-4 will affect multiple players.AJ Hawk - Still undecided as to whether he plays ILB or OLB as reports have surfaced for both switches. If he plays ILB alongside Barnett, I'm expecting a bit of an upswing in tackle numbers. A move to OLB likely means an opposite move in numbers.Aaron Kampman - Kampman is too small to play 3-4 DE so he probably moves to OLB. This is terrible news as Kampman would move from a perennial top 15 DL to a LB3 or LB4 with plenty of question marks. As a Kampman owner myself, I'm holding out for the possibility of a trade but it seems unlikely as this point.Brandon Chillar / Brady Poppinga - One of this guys probably gets a shot at part time OLB. If one can emerge, they probably see marginal numbers but better than the part time SAM LB numbers they see now.Johnny Jolly / Mike Montogomery / Justin Harrell - Harrell probably gets the NT by default. Jolly and Montogomery probably make 3-4 end.
I don't agree on Harrell as a NT. DE maybe. Picket or a FA rookie signing makes more sense to me. He's more of a penetrator in my opinion.
So Brooks leaving TBB will benefit who?Cato JuneQuincy BlackGeno Hayes
Still holding Geno Hayes but with Kiffin gone I wonder his value.
 
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dan morgan, lb saints *waiver wire gem*dude took the year off last year- which could only help him - and not because of injury. he's on the roster of a team that needs help at LB. he's talking about how he's ready to comeback.
Like the talent, but there's always the chance that if someone pats him on the back too hard, he forgets where he is.
honestly, i don't put much stock in his return. that's why he's a ww "gem" in my book. he *could* make the team after all. he *could* become a starter. he *could* stay healthy. he's worth a late round flyer, if nothing else.
 
dan morgan, lb saints *waiver wire gem*dude took the year off last year- which could only help him - and not because of injury. he's on the roster of a team that needs help at LB. he's talking about how he's ready to comeback.
Like the talent, but there's always the chance that if someone pats him on the back too hard, he forgets where he is.
honestly, i don't put much stock in his return. that's why he's a ww "gem" in my book. he *could* make the team after all. he *could* become a starter. he *could* stay healthy. he's worth a late round flyer, if nothing else.
Agree totally.
 
So Brooks leaving TBB will benefit who?Cato JuneQuincy BlackGeno Hayes
If they install a different defense, that WLB spot might lose a lot of value. I know I have been holding a few of these guys, hoping that when Brooks departs, I have a nice Cover 2 WLB to plug in, but Kiffin's leaving may change that.
 
Green Bay's change to a 3-4 will affect multiple players.AJ Hawk - Still undecided as to whether he plays ILB or OLB as reports have surfaced for both switches. If he plays ILB alongside Barnett, I'm expecting a bit of an upswing in tackle numbers. A move to OLB likely means an opposite move in numbers.Aaron Kampman - Kampman is too small to play 3-4 DE so he probably moves to OLB. This is terrible news as Kampman would move from a perennial top 15 DL to a LB3 or LB4 with plenty of question marks. As a Kampman owner myself, I'm holding out for the possibility of a trade but it seems unlikely as this point.Brandon Chillar / Brady Poppinga - One of this guys probably gets a shot at part time OLB. If one can emerge, they probably see marginal numbers but better than the part time SAM LB numbers they see now.Johnny Jolly / Mike Montogomery / Justin Harrell - Harrell probably gets the NT by default. Jolly and Montogomery probably make 3-4 end.
A saw a blurb that Desmond Bishop might be an ILB if AJ Hawk goes to OLB.
heard this as well. would like to hear other thoughts on him...
 
Could Jo-Lonn Dunbar possibly be in play for the WLB spot in NO? If so he could be a huge sleeper. He doesn't have anyone in front of him with very good talent. If he's given the chance in the off season, he could come out the winner at the WLB spot.

 
Sleeper?

E.J. Henderson Minn - could be forgotten about after last seasons injury

Deep Sleeper?

Shawn Crable NE - former Mich standout and 3rd rd pick, if he steps into Vrabels stating spot after showing flashes in pre-season last year with 16 tks, 2.5 sacks, 1 int, maybe not great tackle #s but could be huge in big play leagues

 
Here's two I grabbed today in a deep league:



Brandon Mebane, DT, Seattle

Link

Position change for Mebane? Posted by Eric Williams @ 12:49:40 pm Colin Cole reportedly signed a five-year, $21 million deal with $5 million guaranteed. Team sources confirmed the signing today.

And this apparently ends the pursuit of defensive end Chris Canty, who's agent reportedly has said he will cancel a scheduled trip to Seattle. Canty had been seeking a deal at $8 million per season, which is probably to steep for Seattle at this point.

[More:]

The Packers reportedly wanted Cole back for defensive line depth. Green Bay is converting to a 3-4 base scheme defensively, and Cole would have fit their scheme as a nose guard.

Now with Seattle committing at least a reported $5 million guaranteed to Cole, it appears Brandon Mebane may be switching positions to fill in as a 3-technique defensive tackle, the role Rocky Bernard played throughout his career with Seattle, instead of the 1-technique he's customarily played on the inside shade of the guard.

Check out this defensive front chart for a visual.

The 3-technique position is filled by a player who lines up on the outside shade of the guard and gets more of a pass rush up field. This position also requires a player who can move better sideline to sideline in pursuit.

Mebane has shown flashes of being able to do that. He finished with 5.5 sacks last season and started all 16 games after finishing with two sacks in his rookie season in 10 games started.

Cole seems to be a better fit as a run stuffer and hole clogger at the 1-technique position.

Seattle also is expecting good things from rookie Red Bryant, who was dinged up most of last season and played in only four games in 2008. The usually solid Craig Terrell rounds out the defensive tackle rotation for Seattle.
and Dominique Barker, SS, Texans


Texans re-sign Wilson

The Texans re-signed free safety Eugene Wilson to a three-year contract, the team announced on Saturday.

Wilson signed with the Texans last September after spending five years with the New England Patriots. He worked his way into the starting lineup and started 10 games for the Texans in 2008. Wilson, a sixth-year pro, finished the year with 63 tackles, including 52 solos, and two interceptions.

"I am really excited to be back with Houston," Wilson said. "I like what we have going there under coach (Gary) Kubiak. I feel really comfortable with him, and I'm excited that they are giving me the chance to showcase my abilities."

Wilson was selected as the 36th overall selection by the Patriots in the 2003 NFL Draft. He won two Super Bowls with New England. Prior to that, he was a three-year starter for the University of Illinois. Wilson is expected to start at free safety next season, and Dominique Barber will look to take over at strong safety in the starting lineup.

"I think we have the chance to be one of the better secondaries in the league next year," Wilson said. "We have a lot of the same guys coming back. We are comfortable with each other. We also know how to make plays."
 
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