Drafting out of Position 10:
QB PManning, Colts / 6
QB JSorgi, Colts / 6
RB LJohnson, Chiefs / 8
RB JNorwood, Falcons / 4
RB RRice, Ravens / 7
RB BrJackson, Packers / 5
WR RWayne, Colts / 6
WR LEvans, Bills / 9
WR KWalter, Texans / 10
WR SBreaston, Cardinals / 4
WR DHenderson, Saints / 5
TE GOlsen, Bears / 5
TE Boss, NYGiants / 10
PK Kasay, Panthers / 4
D/ST Baltimore Ravens / 7
D/ST Buffalo Bills / 9
Jacks Of All Trades:
JOT Pat White, Dolphins / 6
JOT Josh Cribbs, Browns / 9
I'm VERY pleased with this Draft. Like every Team, there are risks, but outside of the big chance I'm taking in Week 6, and some slight risk at PK, I think they're all manageable.
Manning/Wayne were my 1st two Picks - with most of the Upper Tier RB's, Fitz and AJ off the board at 1.10, I took the least risky, high production potential Player I saw remaining. Would have liked to have landed Brees at 2.07, but in Manning/Wayne, I got what I feel is the safest Upper Tier QB/WR combo out there. I'm tremendously high on both, as I think Brees will spread the ball around, Brady/Moss have the weather to contend with, the best RB on their Team since Cory Dillon and Belichick may tailor some weekly Game Plans away from them, Warner and Schaub carry injury risk, and Delhomme (SSmith) could be inconsistent, and will be protected by that overwhelming Rushing Attack. The Colts added two Players in the Draft who will have an immediate impact - Donald Brown and Austin Collie. I think that impact will come in the form of allowing Wayne to work in the least amount of coverage he's seen in a while, and he and Manning will make the most of it. Yes, I'm the culprit who drew ridicule for drafting Jim Sorgi in Round 16. I think I'll get the last laugh on that one. Sorgi, IMO is the best backup for any of the Top Guns (Brees, Manning, Brady, Warner et al), and was much cheaper than acquiring a second starting QB from another NFL Team. He won't replicate Manning's #'s, but I think he produces as much as an average QB2 in the 13-18 range, and given the multiple threats available, will still be able to get the ball to Wayne. We'll see if I'm right. I hope I don't have to be.
Manning/Sorgi/Wayne are my only Players off in Week 6, (I'll get to Pat White later), so I'm betting that I'll get enough production out of the other 14 to keep me from finishing last. If I'm extremely fortunate, I'll have amnesty that Week, and I think with my Team is structured to have a good shot at that, seeing as how the only guys I have off in Week 5 are my 4th RB (BrJackson), 5th WR(DHenderson) and Greg Olsen - but Kevin Boss plays a home game vs the Raiders that Week, so I think my TE production is safe.
Of course, that left me with my top two Players on the same Bye Week, and I structured many of my next Picks around maximizing Player value while minimizing that risk. I'm pretty tuned in to Penn State Players in the NFL, and I'm hearing nothing but good things about LJ in KC. He's in a positive frame of mind. Pioli, Haley and Cassel right a lot of wrongs with that Team, and that Offense. The loss of Gonzo is mitigated somewhat by the signing of Bobby Engram. If anything, it makes them more 'conventional', which might be to LJ's benefit. Jamaal Charles and Kolby Smith can keep LJ rested. He's no PPR guy, but can make up for that with yardage and TD's, provided the Chiefs aren't on the wrong end of a blowout, which they might frequently be, which would relegate him to the sidelines in favor of Charles. Obviously, the O-Line is a concern that I hope they'll work out by September. In these Survivor Formats, Norwood is a nice piece, as he could 'spike' on any given week with his big play potential, and he's the main receiving option in the Falcons backfield. I'm betting against Willis McGahee. Rice will start the Season getting plenty of touches, and only see his PT increase as the Season progresses. The Falcons and Ravens Offenses will both be built around the run first. If Rice takes over like I think he will, it might mitigate some of the risk associated with LJ. Brandon Jackson can catch footballs, and I'm not so sure Ryan Grant is a strong enough RB1 to keep Jackson out of the mix, especially when the winter comes. I'll get to Pat White later. No Bye Week issues, and LJ is my only Player on Bye in Week 8. Each RB has the benefit of having a solid QB to keep D's from focusing entirely on the run. If I could change one thing here, I'd have found a way into Darren Sproles or Felix Jones for either Norwood or Rice, and either Leon Washington or Tashard Choice for Brandon Jackson. Wouldn't have minded Jamaal Charles either. I like the sum of the parts of this committee.
Since I was taking a committee approach at RB, I wanted to go with a WR Group with tremendous upside. With Wayne holding down the baseline, I wanted to distribute the rest of my WR Corps between PPR Hogs and Spikers. Walter is my PPR Hog, and Evans, Breaston and Henderson are my Spikers, capable of blowing up any given week. I have a WR involved with Manning, Schaub, Brees and Warner. I would have liked to have found myself into Joey Galloway or Jordy Nelson so as to have had a piece of the Patriots or Packers pie as well. I'll get to Joshua Cribbs later. No Bye Week issues, except Evans/Cribbs, but that doesn't count in my book, and the only other Player I have off in Week 9 is my backup D/ST, and the Ravens are at Cincinnati that week, which isn't too shabby.
I've had some serious man love for Cooley and Daniels over the last few years, but passed on both to select Greg Olsen, who I'm quickly warming up to as a potential Top-5 Candidate, and Jay Cutler's new BFF. Kevin Boss is another TE I'm looking at playing a heavy supporting role with the losses of Burress and DWard in NYG. I don't think 40 Catches is out of the question for Boss. He makes for a nice Red Zone target as well, and has the nice matchup vs Oakland on Olsen's Bye.
Went with 1 PK, John Kasay. Two reasons - he was the best PK with the earliest Bye Week when I was up, and when your Offense is as run-centric as I think Carolina's will be, there are plenty of opportunities for FG's when those clock grinding drives stall out inside the 30. It's very risky to go with one PK, but I think Kasay's job is secure, and with the early bye week, I think I've got enough firepower going that I'm not going to get caught standing when the music stops in Week 4. That's the key, I really think - if you're going to go a Week down a position, it has to be early so you minimize the risk of finishing at the bottom of the pile. If I lose him for the year, obviously I'm sunk, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.
Jacks Of All Trades:
I selected QB/RB/WR Pat White and QB/RB/WR/PR/KR Joshua Cribbs as my last 2 Picks. If I get knocked out due to having only 1PK, well, that won't look like the greatest decision, certainly...but I'm enamored with guys like this in Survivor Leagues. Unfortunately, until we hear otherwise, White will have to be rostered at QB - I'm kinda hoping he'll get designation as a RB or WR by the start of the Season. Although in White's case, I don't like drafting Rookies in these things, either guy has the chance to do something downright amazing on any given week, and rather than taking guys with moderate baseline and limited upside, I wanted to finalize my Roster with Low Risk/High Reward Players. I just didn't see any Players compelling enough from 16.07 (Sorgi) through the end of the Draft that jumped out and said 'PICK ME!'
So I went with some 'Outliers', who might just surprise with a spike when I need them to, but I don't expect anything more than gravy if either of them hits my box score.
Couple of reasons: you all did a fantastic job of Drafting - nothing fell. Second, I'm pretty pleased with what I landed in Rounds 1-15. Pleased enough to take these 2 late fliers.
Best Of Luck to all. Hope to be hanging either here, or with the group that moves up to SSL1, in 2010!