Here's my own analysis: I should have time to do a team by team analysis this year.
Time for the annual Dead Wrong In Public post-season analysis, examining where poor assumptions, poor decisions, or sheer bad luck contributed to the team's underperformance.
1.13 Ladanian Tomlinson, RB SDC
My second choice was Calvin Johnson, but I'm very glad not to take a Detroit player in the first round.
Tomlinson ended as the RB21, #121 overall. Calvin Johnson was WR23, #79 overall; the difference was 47 points. Not a complete bust, and partly caused by injury (predictable? I didn't think so), but clearly could have done better here. Best plausible pick would have been Dallas Clark, who ended as #4 overall, but I think it's very unlikely I would have made that choice (and Clark wouldn't have done that well if Anthony Gonzalez stayed healthy).
2.04 Steve Smith, WR CAR
More QB love let a nice WR fall to me. If Smith manages to avoid punching out teammates and/or opponents, he should be back in the top 5. I have Smith as the end of the top WR tier; the only other player I seriously considered was Kellen Winslow Jr., but with the change of teams I think he's too risky here.
Phew, Jake Delhomme, man. I think this was a reasonable pick where the circumstances just wound up blowing. Smith did finish as WR22, #77 overall, so again, not a complete bust, but for two picks where I needed anchors for my team, I got role players. The TE choice again would have been better; Winslow was #32 overall and outscored Smith by 64 points.
3.13 Braylon Edwards, WR CLE
We're now well into the "WRs With Issues" phase of the draft.
One of the things I try to do in a league like this is create a narrative. To win in a 16-team all-play league, you need a lot of things to go right, so I build up a story about a particular team's situation, and base some of my draft decisions on that story. If the story works out like you expected, you get hits on a number of picks.
One story this year was that Cleveland would have an offensive resurgence, with one of the QBs being effective, and Edwards being the main beneficiary. Ouch. Edwards sucked, got traded, and continued to suck, finishing as WR36, #115 overall. The one thing that bailed him out is that the Jets are way better than the Browns, and made a playoff run; he got 27 bonus points in the playoffs or he would have been down in Dwayne Bowe territory. Decent plausible picks here were Fiddles' next two; Ronnie Brown (great until he was injured) or Green Bay TMQB, although no one in this segment of the draft really tore it up.
4.04 Desean Jackson, WR PHI (Go Bears!)
Other possibilities were Hines Ward and Zach Miller.
Go Bears! My first good pick, Jackson finished as WR11, #40 overall. Solid value at this point, and much better than Ward or Miller.
5.13 Marshawn Lynch, RB BUF (Go Bears!)
I have Lynch (and Thomas Jones) at the top of VBD at this point...
Homer pick? I thought it was reasonable to expect that, even missing 3 games, Lynch would see as many touches on the year as 31-year-old Thomas Jones with Leon Washington behind him. Didn't turn out that was as Lynch finished #269 overall, 170 points behind Thomas Jones.
6.04 Bernard Berrian, WR MIN
Sitting on the top of my VBD board was Thomas Jones, but I just couldn't pull the trigger on him. I really don't think he's that talented, he's 31, he has no QB, and he has two players pushing him for playing time. I may need to tweak projections on him to reflect my personal opinions. There are still a good number of Thomas Jones-level RBs out there; Ray Rice, Cedric Benson, Willie Parker, and Jamal Lewis.
Second chance at Jones, and here I really whiffed on it. I usually look for older vets who can still contribute, but this year I chose the wrong one at RB (Tomlinson over Jones). Berrian was part of the "Vikings passing game will be good" narrative, which turned out to be true, but injuries and competition kept his numbers down. He finished as WR37, #116 overall, 104 points behind T.Jones. The good picks at these two spots would have been Driver and T.Jones.
7.13 Anthony Fasano, TE MIA
I coincidentally had two Miami receivers, Ginn and Fasano at the top of my pre-draft list; Ginn went the pick before me, so I'm now on the board with a TE.
TE20 off the board, he finished as TE26, so not a terrible pick, but not helping me recover from earlier misses. One of my other narratives was that the Miami passing game would improve from last year. (Oops). I was hoping Todd Heap would make it back to me, which didn't work out; I should have just taken him here. Heap outscored Fasano by 106 points.
8.04 Chris Henry, WR CIN
Some people I know have a "no buttheads" rule. I don't. Chris Henry is a butthead. But with Palmer healthy, Housh gone, and Ochocino having his own butthead factor, Henry has some real potential to get a lot of targets in what should be a pretty good offense....RBs I'm interested in are Norwood, Chester Taylor, and possibly Tim Hightower depending on how serious the Beanie Wells injury is. (I hate Hightower, think he has no talent, but he may get another opportunity to start if Wells is out). I have Randy McMichael as my top TE.
Maybe I should have a no buttheads rule. A tragic end in the Shakespearian meaning of that term.
9.13 Miami TMQB
I like the pairing with Fasano; higher-variance picks are the way to go in this format. None of the RBs I mentioned have been taken, so I'm expecting to get one of them in the early 10th. I have them ranked Washington, Norwood, then Taylor.
So, the story was that the Miami passing game, which finished in the middle of the pack in 2008 (Pennington's first with the team), would perform at that level or better in 2009. But they started the season using the wildcat almost exclusively, and then Pennington got hurt. Henne put up some numbers towards the end which salvaged the season a bit, moving the unit up from Jamarcus Russel range up to #27. But still, I clearly should have waited on a QB. If I had to choose one here, Baltimore would have been good; Tim Hightower would have been a good choice as well (though I still think he sucks).
10.04 Leon Washington, RB NYJ
I get my first choice this time. At this point in the draft, all of the RBs are backups entering the season. Frankly, I think Washington is more talented than Thomas Jones, and with Jones entering the season at age 31, this looks to me like the situation which has the greatest likelihood of resulting in a backup turning into a productive starter.
Injury loss; it's hard to know what he might have done healthy. It turned out that Fred Jackson would have been a better pick, but I have Lynch and I never do handcuffs in a format like this (guaranteed middling production).
11.13 Robert Royal, TE CLE
Royal sliding this far in this format looks to me like an oversight. He's not Kellen Winslow, but this is a team with no clear #2 receiver, which brought in a new head coach and brought in Royal to be the lead receiving TE. Winslow and Heiden combined for 125 targets last year, and 169 in 2007; if there are 150 TE targets in Cleveland, Royal will likely be a top-10 TE in this format. Here he goes off the board as the #28 TE, well behind some guys who are not even their teams' #1 TE. Neither Rasta nor Bradshaw was taken since my last turn; I think there's a good chance that I'll get one of them on the comeback.
Another unfortunate part of the "Cleveland passing game will improve" narrative. He finished as TE#55. Trivia: This looked like a great pick in week 1 when he scored 20 points; for the rest of the year, he scored 21 points. Shonn Greene would have been a good pick, but again, having Leon Washington I couldn't make that choice (and probably wouldn't have anyway). Biggest plausible whiff was not getting Mike Sims-Walker with one of these two picks.
12.04 Ahmad Bradshaw, RB NYG
I'm not sure how the #2 RB in New York lasted to RB#49. This offense is an RB's dream, and while Bradshaw has no chance of challenging Jacobs for the starting job, he performed very well in his backup role; with Ward gone, Bradshaw is likely to see 100 carries and 40+ receptions, with upside if Jacobs continues to have injury problems.
My second good pick, Bradshaw finished as RB30. Could have been even better if the Giants didn't blow their chances at the playoffs.
13.13 Browns TMQB
I like the Browns TMQB here, because someone is going to come out on top in that QB controversy, and whoever does should have a pretty good season. Pairing this pick with Edwards increases my variance, which I like.
So here, the core assumption of my draft is revealed, and it turned out to be awfully, horribly wrong. The Browns TMQB finished dead last in points, and had 8 weeks scoring less than 5 points. Combining this pick with a WR and TE from the same team (at least at first) fundamentally doomed me. I could have waited to the 18th round and picked up one of two TMQBs who outscored Cleveland by 50+ points. Jamaal Charles could have been a substitute.
14.04 Ryan Longwell, PK MIN (Go Bears!)
Go Bears! #1 kicker by 15 points. My two best picks so far are both Bears.
15.13 Jason Hanson, PK DET
He's a dome kicker who will have the job all year (barring injury--I had Nugent last year, grr.)
Finished as PK22, reasonable for this spot.
16.04 Niners D
What's left for me is two defense picks, and a flex flyer. None of the defenses left are particularly exciting, but I think the Niners, if they have any talent at all, have it on defense, and Singletary will pay attention to this unit.
Very solid pick based on good reasoning, they finished as TD7.
17.13 Chansi Stuckey, WR NYJ
Needing to fill my flex spot, I was looking at a list of chancy (ha ha!) players; among them were Edgerrin James, Bryant Johnson, Kevin Jones, and Javon Walker. But the more I looked at it and read camp reports, the more I liked Chansi Stuckey.
Seemed like a good idea at the time; then he got traded into my imploding Clevland TMQB situation. No position players taken from this point out did appreciably better. The best untaken free agents were Collie and Garcon; perhaps we should have taken one of those, even with A.Gonzalez healthy at the time. Mario Manningham or Jerome Harrison were also possibilities.
18.04 Denver DST
How the mighty have fallen; Denver used to be a good fantasy defense, and here they're taken as the #31 D, ahead of only Cincinatti. They still have Champ Bailey and should significantly outperform this draft position.
Finished as TD9, another solid value pick. Bengals did OK, too (TD13).
Overall
I made basically four errors in the draft. First was missing on my first two picks, Tomlinson and S.Smith (CAR). Perhaps the writing was on the wall for Tomlinson, but I'm not sure I would do it differently if I did the draft again. If he didn't have the ankle injury he probably would have been around RB10. Smith, again, it's hard to say I would pass on him in the same situation again; yes, his QB situation sucked, but he's an extremely talented WR. Maybe the main thing I was doing wrong there was overvaluing RB/WR relative to TE--a strategic choice that I usually pay close attention to.
The other was choosing narratives that just wound up wrong. If I had been right, and Cleveland and Miami had wound up with middle-of-the-pack passing offenses, it would have been worth 300-400 points to my team. But, they didn't; they had crappy passing offenses, and because of that I had no chance. Cleveland, I was perhaps being too optimistic about; Miami, I don't think I would have forseen them using the wildcat at the level they did this year, and of course I couldn't predict the Pennington injury.
I'll look forward to taking another shot at it next year!