Quick look at the starting offense today.
Geovany Soto - 27 years old - What is interesting is that his walk and strikeout rates both improved and his ability to drive the ball ((tb-3b)/hits) was virtually the same as in his rookie of the year campaign. He just couldn't hit the ball where they weren't all season as his average dropped from 285 to 218. I actually see a huge improvement this year back towards the 800 OPS range.
Derrek Lee - 34 - With everyone else falling apart, Lee had easily the 2nd best year of his career. Overall he was a better hitter but he drove the ball significantly better last year. In 07/08, he basically hit 2 doubles for every homer. Last year, he hit 36 doubles and 35 homers. I see a drop from his 972 OPS back into his normal 850-900 range.
Second Base - ??? - Mike Fontenot fell apart in every way last year. The most significant drop was his walk rate and it was pretty easy to see him struggling to get ahead in the count all year. However, Jeff Baker was an above average offensive force in his partial Cubs debut. I have no idea what to expect from either of these players. But there is a small chance that Theriot is moved to 2B if Starlin Castro can prove in spring training that he should be the starting shortstop.
Aramis Ramirez - 32 - Can he stay healthy? That really is the only question by me. He has picked up his walk rate the last two years but has also dropped in his ability to drive the ball by hitting way more doubles than homers. If healthy, I see a floor of 285 ba - 375 obp - 500 slg and a ceiling of 310 ba - 400 obp - 570 slg if he can turn more doubles into homers.
Ryan Theriot - 30 - His OBP dropped over 40 points to 343. His walk rate and strikeout rate both fell and we all know he has no power. If he can't improve those two rates, he doesn't belong in the lineup and the hope is either he recovers those rates or Castro is ready and Baker is a legitimate 2b. However, he does improve those rates he belongs in the top 2 in the lineup. I don't know what to expect here.
Alfonso Soriano - 34 - He has yet to come close to playing a full season in three years with the Cubs. We all know he will strike out a ton and only walk once every few games. I assume a rebound past 800 OPS but I would be stunned if he recovers the 870+ OPS of the previous Cubs seasons. He is the biggest question mark on the offense because of his past ability to carry the team for stretches contrasted by the depth of his lows that lasted most of last season.
Marlon Byrd - 32 - He has been an above average offensive player for three years now. In addition, he is moving to the easier league and isn't Milton Bradley. Last year, the improved his power numbers but lost 40+ points in his OBP. I see a wide range in expectations for him. He could approach a 900 OPS in the NL if he combines the power with the previous OBP. Or he power was a fluke and he doesn't recover his OBP and he is a >800 OBS player.
Kosuke - 33 - He improve into an average offensive player last year as his slugging improved from 379 to 421. I see him being the best option at the top of the lineup against righties as his 387 obp versus righties last year would prove. Yeah, he isn't a corner outfielder hitter but he doesn't need to be if Soriano and Soto rebound.
In the end, I see two solid to very good hitters in the middle of lineup in DLee and Ramirez. Kosuke will be a solid top the lineup option against righties. Then, it is nothing but question marks. Aside from injuries, the performance of Soto, Soriano, and Byrd will tell the story of the offense this year. Theriot is either a leadoff option or shouldn't be starter. Second base is a mystery. Even if Castro makes the team, he will be a bottom of the order hitter to start with and 2B is still a ????.