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Tom Servo

*** OFFICIAL *** Cleveland Indians thread - Chief Wahoo retires to God's waiting room to live out his remaining days.

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On to KC and Chicago before coming home to play the Reds. A good week on tap...I hope. :unsure:

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A Lazy Sunday talks about players to be "obtained" later this year, among other things.

But, there's also this:

A

nother writer for BP, Jay Jaffe, has his own system for determine who will and won’t make the playoffs in 2011 based on the importance of the 30-game mark. Jaffe’s research has found that 30 games into the season is enough to make some statistically significant judgements about a team's playoff chances. The article is subscriber only, so I’ll just take this snippet for you:

At the 30-game point, the data—at least at the extremes, which is what's most pertinent to our discussion—become truly meaningful. Of the 115 teams that started 20-10 or better, just seven failed to finish with a winning record; of the 113 teams that started 10-20 or worse, only eight finished above .500. Combining the data, just 15 of the 228 teams on the extremes, or 6.6%, changed course by the end of the season. Looking at the 20-game data, 25 of the 215 teams—11.6%—on the extremes (14 or more wins or losses) changed course. And out of the 59 teams that started 22-8 or better, or 8-22 or worse, just one—the 1995 Phillies—made a complete about-face by season's end.

Trust me when I tell you I am saving you a lot of complex math here, and we’ll just skip to the part where Jaffe’s formula predicts a 1st place finish and a final winning percentage of .529 for the Wahoo Warriors this year. The data is based on 70 years’ worth of real, actual baseball, and while it does involve quite a bit of math that I don’t really understand, I’m a lot more comfortable with Jaffe’s numbers than I am with the BP Odds Report.

But, then again, if there's any team that could wreck the formula it's the Indians. :unsure::scared:

Hmm. Time for me to hit the bookies and see if I can still get some good odds.

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A 19-1 beat-down of the Royals last night!!! Whoo-hoo!!!!! :pickle:

Now, we have MLB's best record. :pickle::pickle::banned:

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A Lazy Sunday talks about players to be "obtained" later this year, among other things.

But, there's also this:

A

nother writer for BP, Jay Jaffe, has his own system for determine who will and won’t make the playoffs in 2011 based on the importance of the 30-game mark. Jaffe’s research has found that 30 games into the season is enough to make some statistically significant judgements about a team's playoff chances. The article is subscriber only, so I’ll just take this snippet for you:

At the 30-game point, the data—at least at the extremes, which is what's most pertinent to our discussion—become truly meaningful. Of the 115 teams that started 20-10 or better, just seven failed to finish with a winning record; of the 113 teams that started 10-20 or worse, only eight finished above .500. Combining the data, just 15 of the 228 teams on the extremes, or 6.6%, changed course by the end of the season. Looking at the 20-game data, 25 of the 215 teams—11.6%—on the extremes (14 or more wins or losses) changed course. And out of the 59 teams that started 22-8 or better, or 8-22 or worse, just one—the 1995 Phillies—made a complete about-face by season's end.

Trust me when I tell you I am saving you a lot of complex math here, and we’ll just skip to the part where Jaffe’s formula predicts a 1st place finish and a final winning percentage of .529 for the Wahoo Warriors this year. The data is based on 70 years’ worth of real, actual baseball, and while it does involve quite a bit of math that I don’t really understand, I’m a lot more comfortable with Jaffe’s numbers than I am with the BP Odds Report.

But, then again, if there's any team that could wreck the formula it's the Indians. :unsure::scared:

yep

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What's the word locally on Sizemore? Everything I've heard is that this isn't the same knee that cost him last year and that he should be good to go when the DL stint is up.

Is that what everyone thinks or is there more to worry about here?

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What's the word locally on Sizemore? Everything I've heard is that this isn't the same knee that cost him last year and that he should be good to go when the DL stint is up.Is that what everyone thinks or is there more to worry about here?

That's all I've heard also. There is more discussion about whether they are going to trade him this year (I think no chance assuming the team stays in the race) or wait til next year when he's on his club option. Or maybe the Dolan's will ink a contract :rolleyes:

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Or maybe the Dolan's will ink a contract :rolleyes:

Not saying you guys don't deserve a contract or two from your ownership, but are you sure Sizemore is the guy you want a long-term extension with right now?

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Or maybe the Dolan's will ink a contract :rolleyes:

Not saying you guys don't deserve a contract or two from your ownership, but are you sure Sizemore is the guy you want a long-term extension with right now?
No, not necessarily. Will be interesting if he comes back and keeps playing well though.

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Or maybe the Dolan's will ink a contract :rolleyes:

Not saying you guys don't deserve a contract or two from your ownership, but are you sure Sizemore is the guy you want a long-term extension with right now?
No, not necessarily. Will be interesting if he comes back and keeps playing well though.
That's true. No question he's talented, but the type of surgery Sizemore had could be career shortening from my understanding. It'd be a shame if he comes back to play well, earns a contract, and then pulls a Hafner on you guys. Franchise can't afford another 5-7 years of that type of dead money.

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Or maybe the Dolan's will ink a contract :rolleyes:

Not saying you guys don't deserve a contract or two from your ownership, but are you sure Sizemore is the guy you want a long-term extension with right now?
No, not necessarily. Will be interesting if he comes back and keeps playing well though.
That's true. No question he's talented, but the type of surgery Sizemore had could be career shortening from my understanding. It'd be a shame if he comes back to play well, earns a contract, and then pulls a Hafner on you guys. Franchise can't afford another 5-7 years of that type of dead money.
That's for sure. The problem is twofold though...opening the checkbook AND actually luring free agents.

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Or maybe the Dolan's will ink a contract :rolleyes:

Not saying you guys don't deserve a contract or two from your ownership, but are you sure Sizemore is the guy you want a long-term extension with right now?
No, not necessarily. Will be interesting if he comes back and keeps playing well though.
That's true. No question he's talented, but the type of surgery Sizemore had could be career shortening from my understanding. It'd be a shame if he comes back to play well, earns a contract, and then pulls a Hafner on you guys. Franchise can't afford another 5-7 years of that type of dead money.
Hafner was hitting .340-something until he hurt his side in BP last night. :unsure:

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Or maybe the Dolan's will ink a contract :rolleyes:

Not saying you guys don't deserve a contract or two from your ownership, but are you sure Sizemore is the guy you want a long-term extension with right now?
No, not necessarily. Will be interesting if he comes back and keeps playing well though.
That's true. No question he's talented, but the type of surgery Sizemore had could be career shortening from my understanding. It'd be a shame if he comes back to play well, earns a contract, and then pulls a Hafner on you guys. Franchise can't afford another 5-7 years of that type of dead money.
Hafner was hitting .340-something until he hurt his side in BP last night. :unsure:
Hafner also didn't sign his contract this past offseason. Him hitting .340 this year doesn't make his contract all of a sudden a good one.What was the trio of (bigger) contracts they dished out around the same time....Hafner, Westbrook, and ? Edited by Bobcat10

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Or maybe the Dolan's will ink a contract :rolleyes:

Not saying you guys don't deserve a contract or two from your ownership, but are you sure Sizemore is the guy you want a long-term extension with right now?
No, not necessarily. Will be interesting if he comes back and keeps playing well though.
That's true. No question he's talented, but the type of surgery Sizemore had could be career shortening from my understanding. It'd be a shame if he comes back to play well, earns a contract, and then pulls a Hafner on you guys. Franchise can't afford another 5-7 years of that type of dead money.
Hafner was hitting .340-something until he hurt his side in BP last night. :unsure:
Hafner also didn't sign his contract this past offseason. Him hitting .340 this year doesn't make his contract all of a sudden a good one.What was the trio of (bigger) contracts they dished out around the same time....Hafner, Westbrook, and ?
Most everybody else is short-term, has arbitration years bought out or first contract.I thought those were the only two; I could be mistaken.

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Or maybe the Dolan's will ink a contract :rolleyes:

Not saying you guys don't deserve a contract or two from your ownership, but are you sure Sizemore is the guy you want a long-term extension with right now?
No, not necessarily. Will be interesting if he comes back and keeps playing well though.
That's true. No question he's talented, but the type of surgery Sizemore had could be career shortening from my understanding. It'd be a shame if he comes back to play well, earns a contract, and then pulls a Hafner on you guys. Franchise can't afford another 5-7 years of that type of dead money.
Hafner was hitting .340-something until he hurt his side in BP last night. :unsure:
Hafner also didn't sign his contract this past offseason. Him hitting .340 this year doesn't make his contract all of a sudden a good one.What was the trio of (bigger) contracts they dished out around the same time....Hafner, Westbrook, and ?
Most everybody else is short-term, has arbitration years bought out or first contract.I thought those were the only two; I could be mistaken.
I think you are right because I'm probably mixing CC's situation in here...I believe all that was happening at relatively the same time. That was $25M that they could have put in CC's belly.

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Sweep of the Reds is done.Does anyone outside Ohio know how good this TEAM really is?

:hey: great to see the Indians getting W for their good efforts.......AssDribble is having an outstanding year

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Let's say that the Tribe only plays .500 ball the rest of the way...The Tigers have to go 74-58 the rest of the way,Twins 76-57White Sox 76-54..Just to tie.I don't see that happening.

It's a really long season. You wrote this two weeks ago and right now if the Indians went .500 the rest of the way they'd finish 88-74. 88 will win the Central but a young team with iffy pitching is gonna have trouble in the summer months. Boston and Tampa this week, I'm still not believing they can keep this run going but as long as they are hitting they way they are they certainly have a chance over the course of the season. I've gone from complete on-believer, to we'll see mode. Regardless, this is gonna be a much better season than anyone anticipated.

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Let's say that the Tribe only plays .500 ball the rest of the way...The Tigers have to go 74-58 the rest of the way,Twins 76-57White Sox 76-54..Just to tie.I don't see that happening.

It's a really long season. You wrote this two weeks ago and right now if the Indians went .500 the rest of the way they'd finish 88-74. 88 will win the Central but a young team with iffy pitching is gonna have trouble in the summer months. Boston and Tampa this week, I'm still not believing they can keep this run going but as long as they are hitting they way they are they certainly have a chance over the course of the season. I've gone from complete on-believer, to we'll see mode. Regardless, this is gonna be a much better season than anyone anticipated.
Iffy pitching? Huh? The Indians are 4th in the AL in ERA. The rest of the division is 9th, 10th, and 12th. Tigers, White Sox, and Royals are the ones with iffy pitching. Edited by The Man With No Name

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:lmao:

Masterson's the only arm in that rotation that's above average.

Tomlin's pitching completely over his head. He's good, but he's not this good. The inevitable correction is coming and soon as his .175 BABIP is unsustainable.

Corasco and Carmona have ERAs around 5.00.

White's on the DL for 8 to 12 weeks.

Talbot takes his place with his career numbers of 4.57 ERA and 1.54 WHIP

The idea of the Indians being the 4th best staff in ERA, when it's all said and done, is comical.

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:lmao:Masterson's the only arm in that rotation that's above average.Tomlin's pitching completely over his head. He's good, but he's not this good. The inevitable correction is coming and soon as his .175 BABIP is unsustainable.Corasco and Carmona have ERAs around 5.00.White's on the DL for 8 to 12 weeks. Talbot takes his place with his career numbers of 4.57 ERA and 1.54 WHIPThe idea of the Indians being the 4th best staff in ERA, when it's all said and done, is comical.

To be fair, you say "staff" (possibly meaning starting staff) and he was talking team ERA. The Indians have one of the best pens in the league, which can go a long way in the numbers game and in winning games (same with scoring alot of runs and being a great home team).We can go back and forth twisting numbers all day. Ten starts, 18 runs in two of those starts against the same team, 16 runs in the other eight starts combined. I'll take Carmona with his 4.76 right now on my staff and I bet you would too.

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Let's say that the Tribe only plays .500 ball the rest of the way...The Tigers have to go 74-58 the rest of the way,Twins 76-57White Sox 76-54..Just to tie.I don't see that happening.

It's a really long season. You wrote this two weeks ago and right now if the Indians went .500 the rest of the way they'd finish 88-74. 88 will win the Central but a young team with iffy pitching is gonna have trouble in the summer months. Boston and Tampa this week, I'm still not believing they can keep this run going but as long as they are hitting they way they are they certainly have a chance over the course of the season. I've gone from complete on-believer, to we'll see mode. Regardless, this is gonna be a much better season than anyone anticipated.
Iffy pitching? Huh? The Indians are 4th in the AL in ERA. The rest of the division is 9th, 10th, and 12th. Tigers, White Sox, and Royals are the ones with iffy pitching.
You are 6th in the AL in ERA as starters behind the Tigers (4th) and ahead of the White Sox (8th). Opponents batting average 7th, Tigers 3rd while the rest lag. Overall opponents OPS Tigers are 4th, Cleveland 5th and Chicago 6th. Obviously the difference lies in the bullpens as the Tigers has been categorically awful, the White Sox have had trouble and the other two teams aren't really in the conversation anyway. Again, I like what you've done through 43 games but a young pitching staff is gonna get warn down in the summer and bullpens are about as predictable as Michigan weather. Your group of starters does not impress me. Tomlin, Carrasco, Masterson and Carmona all have pedestrian K/9 numbers but where they've been good is not allowing a lot of walks. It's very unlikely Tomlin can continue at this pace but Carrasco could even that out as a guy that should improve as the season goes on. Masterson I do like, Carmona is too schizo to depend on over the course of a season. Not trying to rain on your parade either, what they've done so far is amazing and they are the team to beat if they keep their walks in check and keep hitting like they are. The White Sox and Tigers go long stretches were they can't hit at all, that is encouraging if your number one worry might be starting pitching. Edited by Doctor Detroit

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The FIRST PLACE Cleveland Indians. The Indians have MLB's best record. I like saying that...a lot. :banned::thumbup::pickle:

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You are 6th in the AL in ERA as starters behind the Tigers (4th) and ahead of the White Sox (8th). Opponents batting average 7th, Tigers 3rd while the rest lag. Overall opponents OPS Tigers are 4th, Cleveland 5th and Chicago 6th. Obviously the difference lies in the bullpens as the Tigers has been categorically awful, the White Sox have had trouble and the other two teams aren't really in the conversation anyway. Again, I like what you've done through 43 games but a young pitching staff is gonna get warn down in the summer and bullpens are about as predictable as Michigan weather.

Your group of starters does not impress me. Tomlin, Carrasco, Masterson and Carmona all have pedestrian K/9 numbers but where they've been good is not allowing a lot of walks. It's very unlikely Tomlin can continue at this pace but Carrasco could even that out as a guy that should improve as the season goes on. Masterson I do like, Carmona is too schizo to depend on over the course of a season.

Not trying to rain on your parade either, what they've done so far is amazing and they are the team to beat if they keep their walks in check and keep hitting like they are. The White Sox and Tigers go long stretches were they can't hit at all, that is encouraging if your number one worry might be starting pitching.

Thanks, GB. I'm just enjoying every day with this team. Everyday feels like Christmas and every night is New Year's Eve (sorry Sade). :thumbup:

"What if..." one man's 43 year wait for a World Series championship came to an end?

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The FIRST PLACE Cleveland Indians. The Indians have MLB's best record. I like saying that...a lot. :banned::thumbup::pickle:

:goodposting::hifive: :suds:Heading down for Buchholz vs Masterson tonight! :banned:

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:lmao:

Masterson's the only arm in that rotation that's above average.

Tomlin's pitching completely over his head. He's good, but he's not this good. The inevitable correction is coming and soon as his .175 BABIP is unsustainable.

Corasco and Carmona have ERAs around 5.00.

White's on the DL for 8 to 12 weeks.

Talbot takes his place with his career numbers of 4.57 ERA and 1.54 WHIP

The idea of the Indians being the 4th best staff in ERA, when it's all said and done, is comical.

I'll take 1st place comical any day.

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The FIRST PLACE Cleveland Indians. The Indians have MLB's best record. I like saying that...a lot. :banned::thumbup::pickle:

:goodposting::hifive: :suds:Heading down for Buchholz vs Masterson tonight! :banned:
You need to see if you can get on STO with Katie Witham...and get pics. :popcorn:

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The Tribe beats the BoSux last night to be the first team to 30 wins!!! :banned:

And ESPN's Keith Law STILL thinks we're going to lose 90 games? :lmao: Does he realize they'd have to play .358 baseball (42-75) for the rest of the season to make 90 losses? He's a braying jackass. :lmao::lmao::lmao:

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The FIRST PLACE Cleveland Indians. The Indians have MLB's best record. I like saying that...a lot. :banned::thumbup::pickle:

:goodposting::hifive: :suds:Heading down for Buchholz vs Masterson tonight! :banned:
You need to see if you can get on STO with Katie Witham...and get pics. :popcorn:
Update GB?

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The FIRST PLACE Cleveland Indians. The Indians have MLB's best record. I like saying that...a lot. :banned::thumbup::pickle:

:goodposting::hifive: :suds:Heading down for Buchholz vs Masterson tonight! :banned:
You need to see if you can get on STO with Katie Witham...and get pics. :popcorn:
Update GB?
No pics...but one hell of a win! :banned::suds::pickle:

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It's not the same as the 90-loss prediction above, but here's more braying jackassery from Keith Law:

@keithlaw Not in the least. RT @Gr8Scott26: @keithlaw are you ready to reassess your claim Indians aren't for real?

Gotta love the double down though. :lmao:

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Wes Welker with an early TD reception. :lmao:

7-0 in the 1st.

HEY-OH!
Don't be jealous of my stellar humor. Just stay focused on finishing the season over the .500 mark.

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Wes Welker with an early TD reception. :lmao:

7-0 in the 1st.

HEY-OH!
Don't be jealous of my stellar humor. Just stay focused on finishing the season over the .500 mark.
<_<

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Will be interesting when the time comes if this team is going to make additions. If there is one starter I'm worried about it's Talbot and with White going down it hightens the concern.

Hafner's health will determine what type of bat they will need...utility guy (not sure who yet) or DH guy (Thome/Vlad come to mind, and the thought of Thome sorta makes me barf in my mouth).

Sizemore's health also I suppose...as I'd not want to run out Shelly (as much as I like the dude) and Buck/Kearns out in LF everyday.

Chisenhall is also going to be an important decision soon.

Edited by Bobcat10

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Just stay focused on finishing the season over the .500 mark.

<_<
You don't think .500 is a realistic goal?
If they were .500 right now probably so.

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The Tribe beats the BoSux last night to be the first team to 30 wins!!! :banned:

That "BoSux" team just took 2 of 3 while outscoring you 30-7... in your own house. Hell they were one uncharacteristically Bad inning from bard away from a sweep. There was a team that "sucked" in Cleveland this week, but it sure wasn't the one from Boston. :DTribe should win about 90 games this year. Lucky for you guys the majority of the Central is absolute garbage thereby posing little threat and helping to inflate your win total. Edited by [icon]

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The Tribe beats the BoSux last night to be the first team to 30 wins!!! :banned:

That "BoSux" team just took 2 of 3 while outscoring you 30-7... in your own house. Hell they were one uncharacteristically Bad inning from bard away from a sweep. There was a team that "sucked" in Cleveland this week, but it sure wasn't the one from Boston. :DTribe should win about 90 games this year. Lucky for you guys the majority of the Central is absolute garbage thereby posing little threat and helping to inflate your win total.
Thanks for the post.The only way to win a title is to get to the playoffs. If that takes the Central division being absolute garbage and a rip roaring start from my Indians, I'll take it. Once you get there, anything can happen, you know that.

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The only way to win a title is to get to the playoffs. If that takes the Central division being absolute garbage and a rip roaring start from my Indians, I'll take it. Once you get there, anything can happen, you know that.

Indeed :thumbup:

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Took 2 of 3 from the Blue Jays last night. 33-20...still in first place...and with the best record in baseball AGAIN! :banned::thumbup::excited:

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<_<

<_<

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