Unemployment lowest since 2008 (3 Viewers)

'Spiderman said:

Unemployment is 7.8%. Problem is that 87% of all jobs created in the past 6 months are part time, so while those people are technically not unemployed, there are a massive number of people in this country whose Bachelor degree is a really expensive means to making sandwiches at Subway for $8 an hour for 25 hours a week and the number of people in that situation just skyrocketed last month.

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'tommyGunZ said:

'Spiderman said:

Unemployment is 7.8%. Problem is that 87% of all jobs created in the past 6 months are part time, so while those people are technically not unemployed, there are a massive number of people in this country whose Bachelor degree is a really expensive means to making sandwiches at Subway for $8 an hour for 25 hours a week and the number of people in that situation just skyrocketed last month.

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Here come the excuses.Why do you hate America?

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'madhatter said:

I'm just curious here. Hypothetically, let's say a defense contractor was asked by the government to not lay off a large amount of sub contractors until after the election instead of when their contracts ran out at the end of September, and they would pay the company to keep them on board. That's kinds shady of the current administration, no? Hypothetically.

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'jon_mx said:

'tommyGunZ said:

'Spiderman said:

Unemployment is 7.8%. Problem is that 87% of all jobs created in the past 6 months are part time, so while those people are technically not unemployed, there are a massive number of people in this country whose Bachelor degree is a really expensive means to making sandwiches at Subway for $8 an hour for 25 hours a week and the number of people in that situation just skyrocketed last month.

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Here come the excuses.Why do you hate America?

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Why do you hate real jobs?

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'tommyGunZ said:

'jon_mx said:

'tommyGunZ said:

'Spiderman said:

Unemployment is 7.8%. Problem is that 87% of all jobs created in the past 6 months are part time, so while those people are technically not unemployed, there are a massive number of people in this country whose Bachelor degree is a really expensive means to making sandwiches at Subway for $8 an hour for 25 hours a week and the number of people in that situation just skyrocketed last month.

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Here come the excuses.Why do you hate America?

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Why do you hate real jobs?

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Like the millions that we lost in the great recession after 8 years of your policies?

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'tommyGunZ said:

'jon_mx said:

'tommyGunZ said:

'Spiderman said:

Unemployment is 7.8%. Problem is that 87% of all jobs created in the past 6 months are part time, so while those people are technically not unemployed, there are a massive number of people in this country whose Bachelor degree is a really expensive means to making sandwiches at Subway for $8 an hour for 25 hours a week and the number of people in that situation just skyrocketed last month.

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Here come the excuses.Why do you hate America?

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Why do you hate real jobs?

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Like the millions that we lost in the great recession after 8 years of your policies?

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'tommyGunZ said:

'madhatter said:

I'm just curious here. Hypothetically, let's say a defense contractor was asked by the government to not lay off a large amount of sub contractors until after the election instead of when their contracts ran out at the end of September, and they would pay the company to keep them on board. That's kinds shady of the current administration, no? Hypothetically.

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Hypothetically, would it make sense for the government to tell said contractor not to lay those folks off if they were fairly certain that the budget cuts causing those layoffs were in the process of being renegotiated so that the layoffs were unnecessary?

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The Obama.com website is not owned by the president’s campaign but rather by Obama bundler Robert Roche, a U.S. citizen living in Shanghai, China. Roche is the chairman of a Chinese infomercial company, Acorn International, with ties to state-controlled banks that allow it to “gain revenue through credit card transactions with Chinese banks.”There’s more.The unusual Obama.com website redirects traffic directly to a donation page on the Obama campaign’s official website, my.barackobama.com, which does not require donors to enter their credit card security code (known as the CVV code), thereby increasing the likelihood of foreign or fraudulent donations. The website is managed by a small web development firm, Wicked Global, in Maine. One of Wicked Global’s employees, Greg Dorr, lists on his LinkedIn page his additional employment with Peace Action Maine and Maine Voices for Palestinian Rights. According to the GAI report, 68 percent of all Internet traffic to Obama.com comes from foreign visitors. And still more.In 2011, Mr. Roche obtained one of the most sought-after pieces of real estate in Washington, DC: a seat at the head table for President Obama’s State Dinner for Chinese President Hu Jintao. How Roche—a man whose infomercial company hawks fitness equipment, cell phones, and breast enhancement products—landed a seat alongside Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, former President Bill Clinton, Sen. John Kerry, former President Jimmy Carter, and Chinese President Hu Jintao remains unclear. Since 2009, White House Visitor Logs list the name Robert Roche at least 19 times, despite the fact Mr. Roche’s primary residence is in China. Mr. Roche, who is originally from Chicago, is a co-chair of the Technology Initiative for the Obama campaign. According to Acorn International’s prospectus, the success of Mr. Roche’s company hinges on maintaining access to state-run media and “preferential tax treatments and subsidies” doled out by the People’s Republic of China (PRC): Our business depends on our access to TV media time to market our products and services in China….PRC law is vague and is subject to discretionary interpretation and enforcement by PRC authorities…Loss of these preferential tax treatments and subsidies could have material and adverse effects on our results of operations and financial conditions.In addition to the Obama.com redirect revelation, the Government Accountability Institute report—America the Vulnerable: Are Foreign And Fraudulent Online Contributions Influencing U.S. Elections?—exposes myriad gaping online security holes that stand to threaten the integrity of House, Senate, and presidential election

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'Otis said:

If only we had elected a republican president, the recession never would have happened. Unemployment would probably be at around 0%.

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'Phase of the Game said:

'Otis said:

If only we had elected a republican president, the recession never would have happened. Unemployment would probably be at around 0%.

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Are you drinking again?

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'Otis said:

'Phase of the Game said:

'Otis said:

If only we had elected a republican president, the recession never would have happened. Unemployment would probably be at around 0%.

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Are you drinking again?

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Every day.

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'tommyGunZ said:

'Spiderman said:

Unemployment is 7.8%. Problem is that 87% of all jobs created in the past 6 months are part time, so while those people are technically not unemployed, there are a massive number of people in this country whose Bachelor degree is a really expensive means to making sandwiches at Subway for $8 an hour for 25 hours a week and the number of people in that situation just skyrocketed last month.

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Here come the excuses.Why do you hate America?

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'Philo Beddoe said:

Well the jobs report data just got more interesting, another data point emerged (thanks to ZeroHedge) of the 20-24 age group. Apparently that age group somehow, in nothing short of a miracle, posted a positive job gain for the month of September. This would be the first time since 1980! Even though we have now accepted that the persistent U-6 sticky number suggests that 20-24 age group continues to stay in school to AVOID employment...so something here does not add up. Both of these facts cannot be true. Either young Americans are staying in school thus explaining low participation or they are working. Which one is it?

20 - 24 Year Olds

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'The Commish said:

'Philo Beddoe said:

Well the jobs report data just got more interesting, another data point emerged (thanks to ZeroHedge) of the 20-24 age group. Apparently that age group somehow, in nothing short of a miracle, posted a positive job gain for the month of September. This would be the first time since 1980! Even though we have now accepted that the persistent U-6 sticky number suggests that 20-24 age group continues to stay in school to AVOID employment...so something here does not add up. Both of these facts cannot be true. Either young Americans are staying in school thus explaining low participation or they are working. Which one is it?

20 - 24 Year Olds

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When I was that age, I was doing both. I don't know what that means to the slap fight going on though

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'Spiderman said:

Unemployment is 7.8%. Problem is that 87% of all jobs created in the past 6 months are part time, so while those people are technically not unemployed, there are a massive number of people in this country whose Bachelor degree is a really expensive means to making sandwiches at Subway for $8 an hour for 25 hours a week and the number of people in that situation just skyrocketed last month. For the President to be championing that figure is another one of those "fun with numbers" examples where the President is counting on the ignorance of the American people to simply not know any better.

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'jon_mx said:

'tommyGunZ said:

'jon_mx said:

'tommyGunZ said:

'Spiderman said:

Unemployment is 7.8%. Problem is that 87% of all jobs created in the past 6 months are part time, so while those people are technically not unemployed, there are a massive number of people in this country whose Bachelor degree is a really expensive means to making sandwiches at Subway for $8 an hour for 25 hours a week and the number of people in that situation just skyrocketed last month.

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Here come the excuses.Why do you hate America?

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Why do you hate real jobs?

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Like the millions that we lost in the great recession after 8 years of your policies?

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Exactly which polices are you referring to?

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'Ministry of Pain said:

I also find it ironic that the "Left", the folks who have cornered the 'intellectual" term. They see the 7.8% number and run around cheering and do not want to look deeper into the numbers. I think the Left could be the intellectual party when it comes to philosophy and social issues, but in business and the economy they are as short sighted as the bible thumping hardliners to the far right in the GOP who use 5,000 year old bible quotes as policy making material in the 21st century. You can't even discuss the fact that so many folks are working part time and that employers are going to cut staff under 50 to avoid Obamacare, they absolutely don't want to hear it. And they have made all business out to be the devil. Wife works in nonprofit and these folks are absolutely clueless when it comes to business.

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'Philo Beddoe said:

Well the jobs report data just got more interesting, another data point emerged (thanks to ZeroHedge) of the 20-24 age group. Apparently that age group somehow, in nothing short of a miracle, posted a positive job gain for the month of September. This would be the first time since 1980! Even though we have now accepted that the persistent U-6 sticky number suggests that 20-24 age group continues to stay in school to AVOID employment...so something here does not add up. Both of these facts cannot be true. Either young Americans are staying in school thus explaining low participation or they are working. Which one is it?

20 - 24 Year Olds

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'Ministry of Pain said:

I also find it ironic that the "Left", the folks who have cornered the 'intellectual" term. They see the 7.8% number and run around cheering and do not want to look deeper into the numbers. I think the Left could be the intellectual party when it comes to philosophy and social issues, but in business and the economy they are as short sighted as the bible thumping hardliners to the far right in the GOP who use 5,000 year old bible quotes as policy making material in the 21st century. You can't even discuss the fact that so many folks are working part time and that employers are going to cut staff under 50 to avoid Obamacare, they absolutely don't want to hear it. And they have made all business out to be the devil. Wife works in nonprofit and these folks are absolutely clueless when it comes to business.

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'xulf said:

'Ministry of Pain said:

I also find it ironic that the "Left", the folks who have cornered the 'intellectual" term. They see the 7.8% number and run around cheering and do not want to look deeper into the numbers. I think the Left could be the intellectual party when it comes to philosophy and social issues, but in business and the economy they are as short sighted as the bible thumping hardliners to the far right in the GOP who use 5,000 year old bible quotes as policy making material in the 21st century. You can't even discuss the fact that so many folks are working part time and that employers are going to cut staff under 50 to avoid Obamacare, they absolutely don't want to hear it. And they have made all business out to be the devil. Wife works in nonprofit and these folks are absolutely clueless when it comes to business.

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I thought you wanted to have a conversation about unemployment without involving politics. Nice work

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'Otis said:

If only we had elected a republican president, the recession never would have happened. Unemployment would probably be at around 0%.

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For the second time in a week, a government unemployment report is sowing confusion—and may not be as positive as the markets think.

First it was last Friday's August payrolls report, which showed an unexpectedly large drop in the unemployment rate, that spurred confusion (and conspiracy theories). Now, a sharp drop in the pace of new jobless claims has also left people scratching their heads.

The Labor Department on Thursday said the number of people filing jobless claims last week dropped by a seasonally adjusted 30,000—a pretty sharp decline, and one that left the total number of filings at a four-year low of 339,000.

Financial markets immediately rallied on the news.

While the government didn’t note any unusual factors in the release itself, a Labor Department official did tell news agencies covering the release about a quirk which partly accounted for the larger-than-expected drop.

As Dow Jones reported: “A Labor Department economist said one large state didn't report additional quarterly figures as expected, accounting for a substantial part of the decrease.”

The wording of that statement, along with the accompanying headlines, left the impression that one major state didn’t turn in its figures.

Here's what actually happened. The state did report weekly jobless claims but did not process and report its quarterly claims number (when many people have to reapply for benefits for technical reasons as opposed to being newly laid off). As a result, there wasn't the expected spike in claims that normally happens at the start of the quarter.

It is unclear why that happened or how unusual that is. What is clear is that the expected spike in claims around the start of each quarter was smaller this time than usual. Coupled with the seasonal adjustment (that expected a bigger increase), that pushed down the headline figure.

In other words, the drop of 30,000 last week had more to do with the lack of expected re-filings at the start of the fourth quarter than with any particular improvement in labor market conditions.

That also means that the decline which usually follows the spike won’t be as pronounced this time around, so the headline tally of jobless claims is likely to rebound next week.

All told, these two weeks’ worth of jobless claims will end up being more noise than signal. That may frustrate those who follow the series closely for clues into the health of the U.S. labor market. Coupled with last week’s payrolls report, it is also likely to fuel perception that labor market figures in general can’t be trusted.

The Labor Department appears to have had little choice in this matter, however; it couldn’t estimate what the one large state would or should have reported. Still, it may have been able to avoid more confusion had it more clearly articulated that in its weekly press release.

And now, there is one state’s labor department with plenty of explaining to do.

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That is, in nearly the four years since President Obama took office in January 2009, only 827,000 people have been added to the labor force, while during that same time period, 8,208,000 have been added to those not in the labor force.

The chart relies on data available from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"The numbers represented in the chart are a measure of growth from January 2009 through September 2012," the Republican side of the Senate Budget Committee explains. "The data is sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Population Survey, a sample of 60,000 households conducted by personal and telephone interviews. Basic labor force data are gathered monthly. The labor force consists of all people aged 16 and over either employed or actively seeking work. It does not include discouraged workers, people who have retired, or those on welfare or disability who are no longer looking for work. The 'not in the labor force' group is defined as the total civilian non-institutional population minus the labor force."

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7:36PM EDT October 14. 2012 - You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to raise an eyebrow — maybe both eyebrows — at the recent jobs report. Plenty of economists doubted whether 900,000 jobs were created in September, dropping the unemployment rate to 7.8% from 8.1%. "I don't believe in conspiracy theories, but I don't believe in the household survey either," said David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff. RDQ Economics called it "implausible" and a "statistical quirk." Dennis Jacobe of Gallup concluded the report "should be discounted."

A jobless rate decline of 0.3 percentage points or more has occurred nine times since 1990, including last month. Usually when it drops like that, it's for one of two reasons. Sometimes it's because the economy is growing rapidly and creating lots of jobs. That was the case in the 1990s, when GDP growth averaged close to 5% during those months. And job growth was strong, according to the Labor Department's survey of households as well as its survey of employers. (The latter is the one that showed just 114,000 jobs created last month.)

Sometimes, though, the rate drops sharply because job creation is slight and millions of discouraged unemployed stop looking for work. If you stop looking, Uncle Sam stops counting you as unemployed. That has been the case during this recovery. But what happened last month was an odd combo of weak growth, rising labor force participation, and otherworldly job gains in at least one of the two Labor Department job surveys. The numbers just don't match up.

Future jobs reports will help explain exactly what happened last month. But here's what's not in dispute: The U.S. lost 9 million private-sector jobs during the Great Recession. Just 5 million have been recovered. Even worse, the level of private-sector jobs remains 13 million below the pre-crisis job growth trend. That's the true jobs gap, and it isn't closing.

The Great Recession is over, but the Long Recession for workers continues. The gap is a national emergency. That's no fanciful conspiracy. It's a heartbreaking reality. And Washington should start treating it like one.

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Weekly Jobless Claims Drop Proves to Be Short-Lived

Published: Thursday, 18 Oct 2012 | 8:35 AM ET

By: AP

Weekly applications for U.S. unemployment benefits jumped 46,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 388,000, the highest in four months. The increase represents a rebound from the previous week's sharp drop. Both swings were largely due to technical factors.

The Labor Department says the four-week average of applications, a less volatile measure, fell slightly to 365,500, a level consistent with modest hiring.

Last week, California reported a large drop in applications, pushing down the overall figure to the lowest since February 2008.

This week, it reported a significant increase as it processed applications delayed from the previous week. (Read More: Why Jobless Claims May Not Be as Good as Market Thinks)

A department spokesman says the seasonally adjusted numbers "are being distorted ... by an issue of timing."

Applications are a proxy for layoffs. When they decline, it suggests hiring is improving.

The prior week's figure was revised up to show 3,000 more applications than previously reported to 342,000.

Some recent reports suggest the economy is picking up.

Retail sales grew in September at a healthy clip. And builders started construction on new homes and apartments last month at the fastest pace in more than four years. (Read More: Property Flippers Are Back as Housing’s New Middle Men)

Still, the economy is not growing fast enough to generate much hiring. Growth slowed to a tepid annual rate of 1.3 percent in the April-June quarter, down from 2 percent in the previous quarter.

Most economists see growth staying at or below 2 percent in the second half of the year

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The prior week's figure was revised up to show 3,000 more applications than previously reported to 342,000.

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'Abraham said:

The prior week's figure was revised up to show 3,000 more applications than previously reported to 342,000.

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So less than 1%?

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'Jojo the circus boy said:

41% is the true unemployment rate

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'BoneYardDog said:

obama my kind of leadership...Pushing a plan under which "electricity rates will, necessarily skyrocket"

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'Jojo the circus boy said:

41% is the true unemployment rate

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'Slapdash said:

'Jojo the circus boy said:

41% is the true unemployment rate

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That number isn't going to get better for a long time.

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'Novice2 said:

'BoneYardDog said:

obama my kind of leadership...Pushing a plan under which "electricity rates will, necessarily skyrocket"

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Link

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'StrikeS2k said:

Weekly Jobless Claims Drop Proves to Be Short-Lived

Published: Thursday, 18 Oct 2012 | 8:35 AM ET

By: AP

Last week, California reported a large drop in applications, pushing down the overall figure to the lowest since February 2008.

This week, it reported a significant increase as it processed applications delayed from the previous week. (Read More: Why Jobless Claims May Not Be as Good as Market Thinks)

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Marty Morgenstern, the secretary of the California agency that substantially under-reported unemployment claims last week, contributed to President Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential election campaign, The Daily Caller has learned.

On Oct. 11, the federal government reported that weekly jobless claims were down significantly, suggesting a dramatic national increase in economic growth and a steep decline in layoffs. Jobless claims, according to the Labor Department, had fallen by 30,000 to 339,000, their lowest level since February 2008.

The good news for the Obama administration spread quickly, with outlets like CNN and Bloomberg declaring, “Jobless claims fall to four-year low.”

But within hours, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Labor Department analysts announced that one major state had failed to fully document jobless claims. They declined to name the state.

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According to campaign disclosure records, Morgenstern donated $4,600 — the maximum amount allowed by law — to the 2008 Obama camapaign, beginning with a $1,000 contribution to Obama for America in February 2008. Morgenstern followed up that donation with a $1,300 contribution in June, and then a $2,300 payout in early September.

On all three disclosures, Morgenstern indicated that he was either ”not employed” or “retired.”

According to the Sacramento Business Journal, however, Morgenstern was employed since 2003 as a consultant for the liberal University of California education system.

California officials have denied wrongdoing.

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'Sarnoff said:

'StrikeS2k said:

Weekly Jobless Claims Drop Proves to Be Short-Lived

Published: Thursday, 18 Oct 2012 | 8:35 AM ET

By: AP

Last week, California reported a large drop in applications, pushing down the overall figure to the lowest since February 2008.

This week, it reported a significant increase as it processed applications delayed from the previous week. (Read More: Why Jobless Claims May Not Be as Good as Market Thinks)

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Surprise! Calif. official that under-reported unemployment stats is big Obama campaign donor.

Marty Morgenstern, the secretary of the California agency that substantially under-reported unemployment claims last week, contributed to President Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential election campaign, The Daily Caller has learned.

On Oct. 11, the federal government reported that weekly jobless claims were down significantly, suggesting a dramatic national increase in economic growth and a steep decline in layoffs. Jobless claims, according to the Labor Department, had fallen by 30,000 to 339,000, their lowest level since February 2008.

The good news for the Obama administration spread quickly, with outlets like CNN and Bloomberg declaring, “Jobless claims fall to four-year low.”

But within hours, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Labor Department analysts announced that one major state had failed to fully document jobless claims. They declined to name the state.

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According to campaign disclosure records, Morgenstern donated $4,600 — the maximum amount allowed by law — to the 2008 Obama camapaign, beginning with a $1,000 contribution to Obama for America in February 2008. Morgenstern followed up that donation with a $1,300 contribution in June, and then a $2,300 payout in early September.

On all three disclosures, Morgenstern indicated that he was either ”not employed” or “retired.”

According to the Sacramento Business Journal, however, Morgenstern was employed since 2003 as a consultant for the liberal University of California education system.

California officials have denied wrongdoing.

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'Jojo the circus boy said:

41% is the true unemployment rate

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'Mr. Pickles said:

'Jojo the circus boy said:

41% is the true unemployment rate

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Now do the percentage of people that don't work plus the folks that do work but want to slit their wrists.

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'DoubleG said:

'Mr. Pickles said:

'Jojo the circus boy said:

41% is the true unemployment rate

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Now do the percentage of people that don't work plus the folks that do work but want to slit their wrists.

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I think they're already in there - that'd be the "underemployed" - people with Master's Degrees waiting tables at Bennigan's"

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'DoubleG said:

'Slapdash said:

'Jojo the circus boy said:

41% is the true unemployment rate

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That number isn't going to get better for a long time.

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Only if Nate Silver is right...as of yesterday.

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'Matthias said:

'Jojo the circus boy said:

The Magnitude of the Mess We're In

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As a nation, we do need to learn to write coherently.

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