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Unemployment lowest since 2008 (4 Viewers)

unemployment going form 9.7 to 9.9 when the economy is 'getting better' is NOT a good thing, no matter the spin.. sorry..
Many people gave up looking but are now being counted.
How is this calculated?
It's difficult to calculate, but a couple measures that help to estimate it are people who have been out of work for more than six months, and the change in the total number of employed + the total number of job seekers. While the left has routinely discussed unemploment numbers like 9.7 percent, the right has claimed that the unemployment numbers were actually far worse because of the people who weren't counted in the numbers. Setting the partisan stuff aside for a moment, the "unemployment number" isn't an exact number, and it is possible for it to actually go up from 9.7 to 9.9 because of an increase of a couple hundred thousand jobs if there was a substantial corresponding increase in job seekers as people go back to looking for work. Getting back to the partisan stuff, both sides will try to spin this heading into the midterm elections. The left wants to focus on the increase in jobs, and the right wants to focus on how the economy isn't getting better. The left wants to focus on the stock market being up and the jobs being the lagging indicator of the recovery and how we're finally starting to see month after month after month increases in jobs. The right wants to focus on the recent drop in the stock market, and the fact that the unemployment number went up. This is a substantial change from six months ago, when the right wanted to focus on the fact that there were people who weren't being counted in the unemployment rolls, and the left wanted to focus on single digit unemployment.
 
44% of unemployed have been out of work six months or more

WASHINGTON — Despite recent job gains, one grim statistic casts a long shadow over the recovering economy and the futures of more than 6 million workers: Fully 44 percent of the nation's 15 million unemployed have been out of work for more than six months.

And evidence suggests many of them may never rebuild their working lives completely.
As of last month, 6.6 million of the 15 million overall counted as "unemployed" had been out of work for 6 months or more. That's a lot of people. There are others who don't even count themselves as unemployed because they no long consider themselves to be looking for work. Those are the people who made the unemployment numbers spike. To put some rough numbers in there, if the overall job force is about 150 million workers, an increase of almost 300,000 jobs would represent about a .5% drop in unemployment. But a corresponding influx of about 400,000 people back into the workforce would give us about a .2% increase in unemployment numbers. (Again, these are very rough numbers.)

 
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I've said it many times before, and I'll say it again -- jobs/unemployment will be what causes Obama or sink or swim in 2012. Right now the rate is back up to 9.9%. If it does not improve to AT LEAST under 9% by 2011, he'll be in some trouble. By 2012 if it hasn't improved much beyond that, he will be in serious trouble. Not saying he can't still win, but it will be a major uphill battle if that happens.

What will cause him fits is this November if he loses one or both houses of Congress. The Republicans will take his "elections have consequences" and make it much more difficult to pass anything he wants if they are back in power. He thought he had trouble with Healthcare and other things.... oohhhh boy, he ain't seen nothin' yet... Stymieing Obama's agenda will be the Republican's priority and hamper his chances of passing things that could help make him look better. They are already looking forward to 2012.

 
I've said it many times before, and I'll say it again -- jobs/unemployment will be what causes Obama or sink or swim in 2012. Right now the rate is back up to 9.9%. If it does not improve to AT LEAST under 9% by 2011, he'll be in some trouble. By 2012 if it hasn't improved much beyond that, he will be in serious trouble. Not saying he can't still win, but it will be a major uphill battle if that happens.

What will cause him fits is this November if he loses one or both houses of Congress. The Republicans will take his "elections have consequences" and make it much more difficult to pass anything he wants if they are back in power. He thought he had trouble with Healthcare and other things.... oohhhh boy, he ain't seen nothin' yet... Stymieing Obama's agenda will be the Republican's priority and hamper his chances of passing things that could help make him look better. They are already looking forward to 2012.
I don't see this happening. Not even sure I want that to happen TBH.
 
Not sure how unemployment hovering near or above 10% helps any administration, not matter which side of the poltical aisle they reside. It's going to get worse with an influx of college graduates flooding the market unless there are some serious inroads made in production, which looks to be regaining some momentum at a particularly slow pace. When that same administration is simultaneously running up the deficit and throwing tons of money at solutions that aren't materializing, that's a fire storm in the making.

The political spinners can make all the hay they want, but the bottom line still remains the abnormally high number of people who are getting paid by the government to look for work, those who feel they are significantly underemployed, and those who have given up looking for work as being hopeless. Those numbers add up to a block of pissed off voters who very well will swing a lot of decisions in November if things don't improve by a very large margin in short order.

 
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Bronco Billy said:
Not sure how unemployment hovering near or above 10% helps any administration, not matter which side of the poltical aisle they reside. It's going to get worse with an influx of college graduates flooding the market unless there are some serious inroads made in production, which looks to be regaining some momentum at a particularly slow pace. When that same administration is simultaneously running up the deficit and throwing tons of money at solutions that aren't materializing, that's a fire storm in the making.

The political spinners can make all the hay they want, but the bottom line still remains the abnormally high number of people who are getting paid by the government to look for work, those who feel they are significantly underemployed, and those who have given up looking for work as being hopeless. Those numbers add up to a block of pissed off voters who very well will swing a lot of decisions in November if things don't improve by a very large margin in short order.
Politics aside, the April Employment Report was significant for a number of reasons.

Among major payroll sub-sectors, only transportation, warehousing and information posted an April loss. Transportation losses were concentrated in couriers and messengers. Information losses showed up entirely among telecommunications.

Manufacturing posted its fourth consecutive gain; the fourth longest factory string since the 1990s; and the largest monthly gains since 1997.

And, it’s not “all Census.” Cynics griped about a burgeoning Census-hiring bias. In April, Census hiring numbered 66K.

The workweek and the aggregate hours index lengthened for the fourth consecutive month. Combined with strong (although conspicuously slower) productivity, the total labor input has not been stronger since 2005.

Unemployment rose two ticks to 9.9%. Even that data point generates a perverse positive. The unemployment rate rose because the labor force popped $805K and two-thirds of that labor force gain found jobs. The cohort of reentrants numbered $195K. Jobs leavers (a measure of worker’s expectations about finding a better job) popped to its highest level since the recession began.

And to your point about those that feel they are significantly underemployed; chronic unemployment, those characterized by low educational level, lack of skill or poor work history, rose to 45.9 weeks. But educational attainment, the underlying cause of differential unemployment is glaring. Unemployment among bachelor’s degree or higher cohort fell to 4.9%.

 
Three straight months of employment increases if anyone cares.
Details?
February was revised up to +3,000March was revised up to +19,000.April is +32,000.This is non-farm, private employment IE temp census hiring is not being counted. It's small, but it's positive. At the peak, we were losing ~750K jobs in a month.Friday is the BLS report, which will include all the government jobs. Consensus estimate is +200K (with 100K census jobs).
Bump.April was revised to +65,000.May was +55,000.Tomorrow is the BLS report. Consensus is +140K or so non Census jobs. April was +224K.
 
Three straight months of employment increases if anyone cares.
Details?
February was revised up to +3,000March was revised up to +19,000.April is +32,000.This is non-farm, private employment IE temp census hiring is not being counted. It's small, but it's positive. At the peak, we were losing ~750K jobs in a month.Friday is the BLS report, which will include all the government jobs. Consensus estimate is +200K (with 100K census jobs).
Bump.April was revised to +65,000.May was +55,000.Tomorrow is the BLS report. Consensus is +140K or so non Census jobs. April was +224K.
:shrug:
 
The jobs that were lost will not be fully recovered until

2020

Book it.
If it means adding more jobs each month until we reach 5% - 6% unemployment, would that be a bad thing?
That is not happening, we have been staying around 9.7%. What is this new jobs created crap? Give me net jobs, this is just a way to make a bad situation look better.
The non farm is net new jobs created.
Farm jobs aren't real jobs?

 
The jobs that were lost will not be fully recovered until

2020

Book it.
If it means adding more jobs each month until we reach 5% - 6% unemployment, would that be a bad thing?
That is not happening, we have been staying around 9.7%. What is this new jobs created crap? Give me net jobs, this is just a way to make a bad situation look better.
It is like you have a crystal ball, unemployment is at 9.7%.
 
Not very positive, but not horrible. We need to be creating 200-300K jobs per month, 41,000 jobs is not going to get us out of this.

Payrolls up 431,000, lifted by census hiringPayrolls up 431,000, lifted by census jobs; private hiring weak, jobless rate dips to 9.7 pct Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer, On Friday June 4, 2010, 8:53 amWASHINGTON (AP) -- A wave of census hiring lifted payrolls by 431,000 in May, but job creation by private companies grew at the slowest pace since the start of the year. The unemployment rate dipped to 9.7 percent as people gave up searching for work.The Labor Department's new employment snapshot released Friday suggested that outside of the burst of hiring of temporary census workers by the federal government many private employers are wary of bulking up their work forces.That indicates the economic recovery can only plod along and won't have the energy to quickly bring relief to millions of unemployed Americans.Virtually all the job creation in May came from the hiring of 411,000 census workers. Such hiring peaked in May and will begin tailing off in June.By contrast, hiring by private employers, the backbone of the economy, slowed sharply. They added just 41,000 jobs, down from 218,000 in April and the fewest since January.The unemployment rate, which is derived from a separate survey than the payroll figures, fell to 9.7 percent from 9.9 percent. The dip partly reflected 322,000 people leaving the labor force for any number of reasons. The number of people saying they were employed fell as did the number of people who said they were out of work.All told, 15 million people were unemployed in May.Counting people who have given up looking for work and part-timers who would prefer to be working full time, the underemployment rate fell to 16.6 percent in May from 17.1 percent in April. Even with the drop, the figures show just how difficult it is for jobseekers to find work.
 
The jobs that were lost will not be fully recovered until

2020

Book it.
If it means adding more jobs each month until we reach 5% - 6% unemployment, would that be a bad thing?
That is not happening, we have been staying around 9.7%. What is this new jobs created crap? Give me net jobs, this is just a way to make a bad situation look better.
The non farm is net new jobs created.
Farm jobs aren't real jobs?
Too seasonal to be counted in the national employment numbers.
 
Well the good news is that all those Census workers can be moved over to clean the oil once they're done counting people.

 
Three straight months of employment increases if anyone cares.
Details?
February was revised up to +3,000March was revised up to +19,000.April is +32,000.This is non-farm, private employment IE temp census hiring is not being counted. It's small, but it's positive. At the peak, we were losing ~750K jobs in a month.Friday is the BLS report, which will include all the government jobs. Consensus estimate is +200K (with 100K census jobs).
Bump.April was revised to +65,000.May was +55,000.Tomorrow is the BLS report. Consensus is +140K or so non Census jobs. April was +224K.
+20K growth ex-Census. Very weak report. I'm sure it will be revised up some in the future, but that way WAY under consensus. :goodposting:
 
A quick look over the headlines shows that the news outlets are reporting this correctly IE it was a weak report instead of saying LOOK AT THOSE 400K JOBS CREATED WE ARE DOING GREAT!!!!11juan

Kind of surprised.

 
The only positives I see in these numbers are the increases in the workweek and hourly earnings. If we can't get much job creation, at least we can get bigger income for those with jobs.

 
A quick look over the headlines shows that the news outlets are reporting this correctly IE it was a weak report instead of saying LOOK AT THOSE 400K JOBS CREATED WE ARE DOING GREAT!!!!11juanKind of surprised.
I guess they did not want to look clueless when the DOW opens 180 down on the report.
 
This is not a good report but then again Reagan reduced unemployment when he added the millions from the military to it in about 1982.

This isn't the first time the unemployment numbers went down under a bad report.

That report doesn't reflect what I see up here. Here many have gone back to work. Maybe next moth will relect that.

 
Not very positive, but not horrible. We need to be creating 200-300K jobs per month, 41,000 jobs is not going to get us out of this.

Payrolls up 431,000, lifted by census hiringPayrolls up 431,000, lifted by census jobs; private hiring weak, jobless rate dips to 9.7 pct Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer, On Friday June 4, 2010, 8:53 amWASHINGTON (AP) -- A wave of census hiring lifted payrolls by 431,000 in May, but job creation by private companies grew at the slowest pace since the start of the year. The unemployment rate dipped to 9.7 percent as people gave up searching for work.The Labor Department's new employment snapshot released Friday suggested that outside of the burst of hiring of temporary census workers by the federal government many private employers are wary of bulking up their work forces.That indicates the economic recovery can only plod along and won't have the energy to quickly bring relief to millions of unemployed Americans.Virtually all the job creation in May came from the hiring of 411,000 census workers. Such hiring peaked in May and will begin tailing off in June.By contrast, hiring by private employers, the backbone of the economy, slowed sharply. They added just 41,000 jobs, down from 218,000 in April and the fewest since January.The unemployment rate, which is derived from a separate survey than the payroll figures, fell to 9.7 percent from 9.9 percent. The dip partly reflected 322,000 people leaving the labor force for any number of reasons. The number of people saying they were employed fell as did the number of people who said they were out of work.All told, 15 million people were unemployed in May.Counting people who have given up looking for work and part-timers who would prefer to be working full time, the underemployment rate fell to 16.6 percent in May from 17.1 percent in April. Even with the drop, the figures show just how difficult it is for jobseekers to find work.
so what happens when the Census workers are finished? :lmao:
 
They don't.
Virtually all the job creation in May came from the hiring of 411,000 census workers. Such hiring peaked in May and will begin tailing off in June.
The actual unemployment numbers, from which we get the unemployment rate, does not factor in the census workers.
It doesn't factor me in either and I stopped working in September. I was self employed.
 
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They don't.
Virtually all the job creation in May came from the hiring of 411,000 census workers. Such hiring peaked in May and will begin tailing off in June.
The actual unemployment numbers, from which we get the unemployment rate, does not factor in the census workers.
So when unemployed people get jobs as census takers and are removed from the unemployed roles, they aren't counted as being removed and so they don't affect the rate?I think you may be a bit off on your information here...
 
Jesus.

Apparently everyone understood the weakness of this report except Obama.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0415483620100604

President Barack Obama said on Friday the gain of 431,000 jobs in May is a sign the U.S. economy is getting stronger, although there will still be ups and downs going forward.

"This report is a sign that our economy is getting stronger by the day," Obama said in remarks to about about 50 workers at a large truck garage in Maryland.

"A lot of businesses that were hit hard during this downturn, they are starting to hire again. Workers who were laid off are starting to get their jobs back," he said.

However, Obama said there would be "ups and downs" ahead.

The Labor Department said on Friday payrolls rose 431,000 as the government added 411,000 workers to conduct the U.S. Census, the largest monthly increase since March 2000 and one that marked a fifth straight month of gains.
 
This is not a good report but then again Reagan reduced unemployment when he added the millions from the military to it in about 1982.

This isn't the first time the unemployment numbers went down under a bad report.

That report doesn't reflect what I see up here. Here many have gone back to work. Maybe next moth will relect that.
Where is up here? Do you live in Superior?

 
This is not a good report but then again Reagan reduced unemployment when he added the millions from the military to it in about 1982.

This isn't the first time the unemployment numbers went down under a bad report.

That report doesn't reflect what I see up here. Here many have gone back to work. Maybe next moth will relect that.
Don't worry, the feds are hiring at a rapid pace and I am not talking about the census. We are going through the largest expansion of the federal government in history.

 
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