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Jene Bramel

The IDP Dynasty Thread

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Draft has started.

Well, so much for this draft not being as crazy as Hot Route. Multiple teams made big moves to get extra picks in the first two rounds yesterday afternoon, including a deal that saw 3.12 and a 2011 1st rounder go for the 2.03 pick.

I spent most of the afternoon negotiating deals to move up from 2.08 to get Jonathan Stewart, who I strongly considered at 1.05. Twice, I had trades all but agreed to before an on-the-clock change of heart by the other owner killed the deal. Stewart went 2.03.

I was offered a pretty sweet deal to trade down (a deal that DynastyGuys accepted with an earlier pick), but was pretty happy to see Mendenhall there at 2.08. He was the last back in my top tier and might become the rare every-down back that anchors a dynasty team for years.

1.05 WR Andre Johnson

2.08 RB Rashard Mendenhall

I'm going to hold back on some strategy thoughts in the middle rounds for now, but for those thinking along with me, here are some pertinent setup/scoring issues that will be guiding my plans.

40 man rosters

Start QB/RB/WR/WR/TE and two offensive flexes

Start 2DL/2LB/2DB and a defensive flex

1 PPR for all positions

Solo tackle 1.5 // Sack 2.5 // Tackle for loss 0.5 // INT 3 (with 0.1 per INT return yd)

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Draft has started.

Well, so much for this draft not being as crazy as Hot Route. Multiple teams made big moves to get extra picks in the first two rounds yesterday afternoon, including a deal that saw 3.12 and a 2011 1st rounder go for the 2.03 pick.

I spent most of the afternoon negotiating deals to move up from 2.08 to get Jonathan Stewart, who I strongly considered at 1.05. Twice, I had trades all but agreed to before an on-the-clock change of heart by the other owner killed the deal. Stewart went 2.03.

I was offered a pretty sweet deal to trade down (a deal that DynastyGuys accepted with an earlier pick), but was pretty happy to see Mendenhall there at 2.08. He was the last back in my top tier and might become the rare every-down back that anchors a dynasty team for years.

1.05 WR Andre Johnson

2.08 RB Rashard Mendenhall

I'm going to hold back on some strategy thoughts in the middle rounds for now, but for those thinking along with me, here are some pertinent setup/scoring issues that will be guiding my plans.

40 man rosters

Start QB/RB/WR/WR/TE and two offensive flexes

Start 2DL/2LB/2DB and a defensive flex

1 PPR for all positions

Solo tackle 1.5 // Sack 2.5 // Tackle for loss 0.5 // INT 3 (with 0.1 per INT return yd)

Love the AJ pick solidifying WR1. Surprised Turner fell that far and interesting that you selected Mendenhall over him, although obviously they are close. Is PPR the main factor? Age? Or just better talent/situation in your estimation?

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Love the AJ pick solidifying WR1. Surprised Turner fell that far and interesting that you selected Mendenhall over him, although obviously they are close. Is PPR the main factor? Age? Or just better talent/situation in your estimation?

All of the above weighed into the decision.I'm not militant about age differences in dynasty leagues, since I'm rarely looking at longer than a 2-3 year window. But Mendenhall is five years younger, a not-insignificant difference. PPR is a huge factor, and in leagues where you need only start one RB, having an every-down anchor with PPR upside provides a lot of roster and lineup flexibility. Since I don't see Turner ever approaching 350 carries again and Mendenhall's durability is his main competition for 275+ carries, I think it's possible that the rush attempts may be very close between the two, too. Given that, though inconsistent, Mendenhall put up a 4.6 ypc average out of a spread formation at times behind an offensive line that sometimes struggled, I think Mendenhall's upside is high.I don't think he has the same raw talent that Stewart has, but he was right there at the back of the top tier of backs for me. Had he been taken, I'd likely have traded back or looked at another position.

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The Dyn Ex draft continues...

1.05 WR Andre Johnson

2.08 RB Rashard Mendenhall

3.05 WR Michael Crabtree

I had Crabtree, Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston as the last WRs in this tier. I tried to trade down a few spots for value and got a lot of offers, some including 2011 1sts to move out. Had those deals properly valued the 1st rounders (avg value likely 8th round), I may have considered moving out. Staying put, I went with Crabtree, who I think has slightly more PPR upside than Jackson and Colston. Those three WRs (and Steven Jackson, who I considered with Mendenhall in the second round and is a great buy in the third) went immediately after my pick.

Here's how things have gone so far...

1.01 1. FantasyFootballXtreme Johnson, Chris TEN

1.02 2. RotoExperts Peterson, Adrian MIN RB

1.03 3. Pigskin Addiction Rice, Ray BAL RB

1.04 4. KeeperLeagueGM Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB

1.05 5. FootballGuys Johnson, Andre HOU WR

1.06 6. Rotoworld Johnson, Calvin DET WR

1.07 7. NoOffseason.com Marshall, Brandon MIA WR

1.08 8. Fantasy Sharks Gore, Frank SFO RB

1.09 9. DynastyGuys Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR

1.10 10. FantasyFootball.com Charles, Jamaal KCC RB

1.11 11. ESPN/Scouts Inc. Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

1.12 12. DynastyLeagueFootball Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB

2.01 13. DynastyLeagueFootball Mathews, Ryan SDC RB

2.02 14. ESPN/Scouts Inc. Brees, Drew NOS QB

2.03 15. DynastyLeagueFootball Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

2.04 16. FantasyFootballXtreme Wayne, Reggie IND WR

2.05 17. KeeperLeagueGM White, Roddy ATL WR

2.06 18. FantasyFootballXtreme Manning, Peyton IND QB

2.07 19. Rotoworld Jennings, Greg GBP WR

2.08 20. FootballGuys Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB

2.09 21. FantasyFootballXtreme Turner, Michael ATL RB

2.10 22. Pigskin Addiction Austin, Miles DAL WR

2.11 23. RotoExperts Greene, Shonn NYJ RB

2.12 24. NoOffseason.com McCoy, LeSean PHI RB

3.01 25. NoOffseason.com Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB

3.02 26. RotoExperts Moss, Randy NEP WR

3.03 27. Pigskin Addiction Jackson, DeSean PHI WR

3.04 28. Fantasy Sharks Rice, Sidney MIN WR

3.05 29. FootballGuys Crabtree, Michael SFO WR

3.06 30. Rotoworld Jackson, Vincent SDC WR

3.07 31. KeeperLeagueGM Jackson, Steven STL RB

3.08 32. Fantasy Sharks Bryant, Dez DAL WR

3.09 33. DynastyGuys Colston, Marques NOS WR

Evan Silva is blogging this draft on the Pancake Blocks blog at Rotoworld and there are forum threads at Dynasty League Football as well. I found the varying thoughts on the DLF 3.12 and 2011 1st for 2.03 very interesting.

We'll see what happens with the 4.08.

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Sell high on Jared Allen:

Jared Allen cuts off his mullet

Posted by Michael David Smith on May 25, 2010 8:15 PM ET

One of the NFL's signature haircuts is no more.

Minnesota Vikings defensive end Jared Allen has cut off his mullet, and is pictured today at Vikings.com with the kind of conservative haircut you'd expect to see on a businessman, not a wild man like Allen.

Allen (who went bonkos last month at a man who hurled an obscenity at his fiancee) explained that he got a haircut in anticipation of his upcoming wedding.

"The things men do for love," Allen said.

Ever heard of Sampson??

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Sell high on Jared Allen:

Jared Allen cuts off his mullet

Posted by Michael David Smith on May 25, 2010 8:15 PM ET

One of the NFL's signature haircuts is no more.

Minnesota Vikings defensive end Jared Allen has cut off his mullet, and is pictured today at Vikings.com with the kind of conservative haircut you'd expect to see on a businessman, not a wild man like Allen.

Allen (who went bonkos last month at a man who hurled an obscenity at his fiancee) explained that he got a haircut in anticipation of his upcoming wedding.

"The things men do for love," Allen said.

Ever heard of Sampson??
:lmao:

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I really like what you've done with your draft so far, Jene. I'm a big proponent of solidifying the WR position early in PPR leagues and having so-called "set it and forget it" players to man the WR1 and WR2 spots. Johnson and Crabtree fit that bill and should be keys to your team for years.

Getting Mendenhall is a nice move too. I definitely would have taken him over Turner also. The fact that you only need to start one RB is a nice feature, meaning you can really emphasise the WR position and maybe go after some high upside third down backs who are likely to become starters down the road.

I would keep taking offensive players until the comparative value starts to even out. I am a fan of taking a top tier DE early.

Anyways, that was just a quick brain dump. Best of luck with it.

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The Dyn Ex draft continues...

1.05 WR Andre Johnson

2.08 RB Rashard Mendenhall

3.05 WR Michael Crabtree

5.01 QB Philip Rivers

5.08 TE Vernon Davis

I got a little too cute over the last 24 hours.

I really like to squeeze value between the 6th and 10th rounds with lineups this size (something I didn't do well at all in Hot Route) and will try to work within tiers to make that happen. I traded back from 4.08 to 5.04 last night, thinking that I'd still get a look at one of the next three QBs (Rivers, Romo and Brady) while getting a bump up from the 10th to the 8th round. After a couple of owners traded into the late fourth and early fifth rounds around me, I thought I might be on the outside looking in and moved back up to 5.01. Unfortunately, on paper, that game of musical draft spots hurt more than it helped. I generally see future second rounders and picks after the 15th round to be expendable, though, so I'm not too disappointed.

Anyway, I like Rivers as the QB4 over Romo and Brady. I like his age, efficiency and variety of targets, and divisional competition better than Romo and I'm not sure I trust Brady right now. Getting him as QB6 was good value and worth the flexibility it'll give me in not feeling forced to grab a backup too early.

Since then, I dealt back again in the fifth, grabbing some value into the sixth round and putting myself in the sweet spot of the top TE tier, where I got Vernon Davis. Davis and Gates were very close. Gates has the better QB and track record, Davis has age and (possibly) durability on his. He has much better upside than many of the available WRs.

I've arguably got top five talent at each lineup slot so far (depending on whether Mendenhall develops) and was able to do so without sacrificing middle rounders or my 2011 1st.

I've got 6.06, 7.05, 8.08, 8.12 and 9.05 coming up.

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The Dyn Ex draft continues...

1.05 WR Andre Johnson

2.08 RB Rashard Mendenhall

3.05 WR Michael Crabtree

5.01 QB Philip Rivers

5.08 TE Vernon Davis

I got a little too cute over the last 24 hours.

I really like to squeeze value between the 6th and 10th rounds with lineups this size (something I didn't do well at all in Hot Route) and will try to work within tiers to make that happen. I traded back from 4.08 to 5.04 last night, thinking that I'd still get a look at one of the next three QBs (Rivers, Romo and Brady) while getting a bump up from the 10th to the 8th round. After a couple of owners traded into the late fourth and early fifth rounds around me, I thought I might be on the outside looking in and moved back up to 5.01. Unfortunately, on paper, that game of musical draft spots hurt more than it helped. I generally see future second rounders and picks after the 15th round to be expendable, though, so I'm not too disappointed.

Anyway, I like Rivers as the QB4 over Romo and Brady. I like his age, efficiency and variety of targets, and divisional competition better than Romo and I'm not sure I trust Brady right now. Getting him as QB6 was good value and worth the flexibility it'll give me in not feeling forced to grab a backup too early.

Since then, I dealt back again in the fifth, grabbing some value into the sixth round and putting myself in the sweet spot of the top TE tier, where I got Vernon Davis. Davis and Gates were very close. Gates has the better QB and track record, Davis has age and (possibly) durability on his. He has much better upside than many of the available WRs.

I've arguably got top five talent at each lineup slot so far (depending on whether Mendenhall develops) and was able to do so without sacrificing middle rounders or my 2011 1st.

I've got 6.06, 7.05, 8.08, 8.12 and 9.05 coming up.

It will be interesting in this draft to see where some of the young gun QBs go (Stafford, Freeman, Kolb, Bradford, etc.). Whether someone rolls the dice with them as their QB1 or whether a team invests in the future by taking them as their current No. 2 while still having other starter holes to fill.

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The Dyn Ex draft continues...

1.05 WR Andre Johnson

2.08 RB Rashard Mendenhall

3.05 WR Michael Crabtree

5.01 QB Philip Rivers

5.08 TE Vernon Davis

6.06 RB Donald Brown

7.05 WR Hines Ward

Added Donald Brown and Hines Ward since the last post.

It would've been nice to get a shot at Cedric Benson in the sixth, but I had my chance at him in the fifth and elected to take Davis instead. Brown's value has taken a hit for some after last year's disappointing debut, but there's a lot to like. He's a former first round pick playing for a very good offense and has flashed the ability to catch and pass block. I think he looked better before his injury last year and Joseph Addai isn't signed past 2010. I think there's lots of upside to be had here.

Hines Ward is the kind of veteran player I really like in dynasty leagues. His game isn't predicated on speed or explosiveness and he's been pretty durable since passing the usual expiration date for wide receivers. Maclin, MSW and Ochocinco were all on the short list here, but Ward should challenge for 80 catches again this year and is a very solid PPR WR3.

Two picks in the eighth and the 9.05 coming up. Lots of ways to take this draft from here.

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The Dyn Ex draft continues...

1.05 WR Andre Johnson

2.08 RB Rashard Mendenhall

3.05 WR Michael Crabtree

5.01 QB Philip Rivers

5.08 TE Vernon Davis

6.06 RB Donald Brown

7.05 WR Hines Ward

Added Donald Brown and Hines Ward since the last post.

It would've been nice to get a shot at Cedric Benson in the sixth, but I had my chance at him in the fifth and elected to take Davis instead. Brown's value has taken a hit for some after last year's disappointing debut, but there's a lot to like. He's a former first round pick playing for a very good offense and has flashed the ability to catch and pass block. I think he looked better before his injury last year and Joseph Addai isn't signed past 2010. I think there's lots of upside to be had here.

Hines Ward is the kind of veteran player I really like in dynasty leagues. His game isn't predicated on speed or explosiveness and he's been pretty durable since passing the usual expiration date for wide receivers. Maclin, MSW and Ochocinco were all on the short list here, but Ward should challenge for 80 catches again this year and is a very solid PPR WR3.

Two picks in the eighth and the 9.05 coming up. Lots of ways to take this draft from here.

I love what you've done until the Ward pick. He's 34. I'd rather have both of Ochocinco and MSW over him without hesitation.

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The Dyn Ex draft continues...

1.05 WR Andre Johnson

2.08 RB Rashard Mendenhall

3.05 WR Michael Crabtree

5.01 QB Philip Rivers

5.08 TE Vernon Davis

6.06 RB Donald Brown

7.05 WR Hines Ward

Added Donald Brown and Hines Ward since the last post.

It would've been nice to get a shot at Cedric Benson in the sixth, but I had my chance at him in the fifth and elected to take Davis instead. Brown's value has taken a hit for some after last year's disappointing debut, but there's a lot to like. He's a former first round pick playing for a very good offense and has flashed the ability to catch and pass block. I think he looked better before his injury last year and Joseph Addai isn't signed past 2010. I think there's lots of upside to be had here.

Hines Ward is the kind of veteran player I really like in dynasty leagues. His game isn't predicated on speed or explosiveness and he's been pretty durable since passing the usual expiration date for wide receivers. Maclin, MSW and Ochocinco were all on the short list here, but Ward should challenge for 80 catches again this year and is a very solid PPR WR3.

Two picks in the eighth and the 9.05 coming up. Lots of ways to take this draft from here.

I love what you've done until the Ward pick. He's 34. I'd rather have both of Ochocinco and MSW over him without hesitation.
Me, too. That sentence is horribly written. :unsure:

Maclin, MSW and Ochocinco were in the same WR3+ tier for me, but went a full round earlier. I was trying to say that I'm pretty happy with Ward as a consolation prize after the slight reach for Donald Brown (over Ochocinco, DeThomas) the prior round, when the bulk of that class of player went in this draft. I think his likely 80-85 catches, 1000 yards and 6-8 TDs are an undervalued asset as a WR3 when they fall a full round later than others in the tier.

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The Dyn Ex draft continues...

1.05 WR Andre Johnson

2.08 RB Rashard Mendenhall

3.05 WR Michael Crabtree

5.01 QB Philip Rivers

5.08 TE Vernon Davis

6.06 RB Donald Brown

7.05 WR Hines Ward

Added Donald Brown and Hines Ward since the last post.

It would've been nice to get a shot at Cedric Benson in the sixth, but I had my chance at him in the fifth and elected to take Davis instead. Brown's value has taken a hit for some after last year's disappointing debut, but there's a lot to like. He's a former first round pick playing for a very good offense and has flashed the ability to catch and pass block. I think he looked better before his injury last year and Joseph Addai isn't signed past 2010. I think there's lots of upside to be had here.

Hines Ward is the kind of veteran player I really like in dynasty leagues. His game isn't predicated on speed or explosiveness and he's been pretty durable since passing the usual expiration date for wide receivers. Maclin, MSW and Ochocinco were all on the short list here, but Ward should challenge for 80 catches again this year and is a very solid PPR WR3.

Two picks in the eighth and the 9.05 coming up. Lots of ways to take this draft from here.

I love what you've done until the Ward pick. He's 34. I'd rather have both of Ochocinco and MSW over him without hesitation.
Me, too. That sentence is horribly written. :shrug:

Maclin, MSW and Ochocinco were in the same WR3+ tier for me, but went a full round earlier. I was trying to say that I'm pretty happy with Ward as a consolation prize after the slight reach for Donald Brown (over Ochocinco, DeThomas) the prior round, when the bulk of that class of player went in this draft. I think his likely 80-85 catches, 1000 yards and 6-8 TDs are an undervalued asset as a WR3 when they fall a full round later than others in the tier.

Gotcha - that makes a lot more sense. Brown may be a reach on paper, but that's a great pick IMO.

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The Dyn Ex draft continues...

1.05 WR Andre Johnson

2.08 RB Rashard Mendenhall

3.05 WR Michael Crabtree

5.01 QB Philip Rivers

5.08 TE Vernon Davis

6.06 RB Donald Brown

7.05 WR Hines Ward

8.08 RB Ronnie Brown

8.12 TE Tony Gonzalez

9.05 DL Terrell Suggs

I think the eighth and ninth rounds were nice value rounds for me.

Ronnie Brown as the RB31 in a PPR league is extremely good value. Durability is an issue (otherwise I'd never have gotten him here), but he's a triple threat running back. Even with Ricky Williams around, Brown may compete for 200 carries, 40 catches and double digit touchdowns. He's a very strong flex play.

With Vernon Davis already on the roster, taking Tony Gonzalez ois a pick with the scoring system and lineup requirements in mind. Carrying much less risk as my second tight end behind a burgeoning stud, Gonzalez brings 80-800-8 potential (something none of the available WRs are likely to top). He's another strong flex play at a cheap price -- the eighth TE off the board. And though the TE position has grown ever deeper in recent years, continuing to shrink the pool of effective starters for others in the league has some meta-game value here.

Before a break in picks until 11.05, I grabbed Terrell Suggs. The fifth DE off the board, he's the last of the consistent 45+ solo tackle defensive lineman. In this scoring system, he's another strong relative advantage. Though it'll be hard to watch the linebackers fly over the next 24 picks, I'm hoping that staying true to my tiers and maybe helping to contribute to a little TE and DL panic will drop a few more good values into my lap at the 11.05 and beyond.

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TIER 2B

22 KIRK MORRISON

23 STEWART BRADLEY

24 THOMAS DAVIS

25 EJ HENDERSON

Any of these players could rank 5-10 slots higher, depending on how the offseason goes for them. This group defines some of the difficulty with pure rank lists. Any of them could deservedly sit between LB15 and LB45 today. If you're drafting today, your personal risk-reward drafting philosophy applies.

Should Stewart Bradley be seeing the field as a 3 down LBer? Does he have the coverage skills to remain in on passing downs?

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Should Stewart Bradley be seeing the field as a 3 down LBer? Does he have the coverage skills to remain in on passing downs?

Bradley is an every-down linebacker. His coverage skills aren't elite, but they're among the best that the Eagles have on the roster. I'd expect to see lots of dime and big nickel packages (even with Marlin Jackson out) this year, but Bradley and Sims should be expected to see the bulk of the nickel snaps at linebacker.

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Should Stewart Bradley be seeing the field as a 3 down LBer? Does he have the coverage skills to remain in on passing downs?

Bradley is an every-down linebacker. His coverage skills aren't elite, but they're among the best that the Eagles have on the roster.
This leads to a good point...and one that I am still learning my lessons on after years of mistakes. I used to put too much value on elite athleticism and coverage "talent", if you will, and ignore football instincts. Those instincts allow players like Bradley to make plays in coverage because they seem to read the play better than other LBs and are closer to being in the right place to make a play. He will never be considered great in coverage, but he gets good enough results to stay on the field.

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Should Stewart Bradley be seeing the field as a 3 down LBer? Does he have the coverage skills to remain in on passing downs?

Bradley is an every-down linebacker. His coverage skills aren't elite, but they're among the best that the Eagles have on the roster.
This leads to a good point...and one that I am still learning my lessons on after years of mistakes. I used to put too much value on elite athleticism and coverage "talent", if you will, and ignore football instincts. Those instincts allow players like Bradley to make plays in coverage because they seem to read the play better than other LBs and are closer to being in the right place to make a play. He will never be considered great in coverage, but he gets good enough results to stay on the field.
Sounds like Stephen Cooper.

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The Dyn Ex draft continues...

1.05 WR Andre Johnson

2.08 RB Rashard Mendenhall

3.05 WR Michael Crabtree

5.01 QB Philip Rivers

5.08 TE Vernon Davis

6.06 RB Donald Brown

7.05 WR Hines Ward

8.08 RB Ronnie Brown

8.12 TE Tony Gonzalez

9.05 DL Terrell Suggs

I think the eighth and ninth rounds were nice value rounds for me.

Ronnie Brown as the RB31 in a PPR league is extremely good value. Durability is an issue (otherwise I'd never have gotten him here), but he's a triple threat running back. Even with Ricky Williams around, Brown may compete for 200 carries, 40 catches and double digit touchdowns. He's a very strong flex play.

With Vernon Davis already on the roster, taking Tony Gonzalez ois a pick with the scoring system and lineup requirements in mind. Carrying much less risk as my second tight end behind a burgeoning stud, Gonzalez brings 80-800-8 potential (something none of the available WRs are likely to top). He's another strong flex play at a cheap price -- the eighth TE off the board. And though the TE position has grown ever deeper in recent years, continuing to shrink the pool of effective starters for others in the league has some meta-game value here.

Before a break in picks until 11.05, I grabbed Terrell Suggs. The fifth DE off the board, he's the last of the consistent 45+ solo tackle defensive lineman. In this scoring system, he's another strong relative advantage. Though it'll be hard to watch the linebackers fly over the next 24 picks, I'm hoping that staying true to my tiers and maybe helping to contribute to a little TE and DL panic will drop a few more good values into my lap at the 11.05 and beyond.

I like the strategy of taking the best value players, Jene. I especially like your last three picks. Without revealing too much, where are you thinking of going from here? Trade down some more to pick up a few more picks? Stand pat?

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The Dyn Ex draft continues...

1.05 WR Andre Johnson

2.08 RB Rashard Mendenhall

3.05 WR Michael Crabtree

5.01 QB Philip Rivers

5.08 TE Vernon Davis

6.06 RB Donald Brown

7.05 WR Hines Ward

8.08 RB Ronnie Brown

8.12 TE Tony Gonzalez

9.05 DL Terrell Suggs

11.05 QB Sam Bradford

12.08 LB Stephen Tulloch

Despite trying to find a 10th round (and later 11th round) pick at a bargain price, I elected to watch and wait until the 11.05.

I very nearly got extremely lucky to get DJ Williams with that pick nearly 7 full rounds after Patrick Willis and Jon Beason went off the board, but he went just a couple of picks ahead of the 11.05. Instead, I was happy to grab Sam Bradford. There's a reasonable argument here that it's way too early for a backup QB, especially after already drafting Philip Rivers early. However, I felt the tiers at the two or three positions of probably greater need/potentially higher scarcity remained deep enough to draft Bradford.

That suggests that I think Bradford is a bit higher than Carson Palmer and a few others yet to be drafted at the position. In a dynasty league, I think there's a clear decision to be made with your QB2 philosophy. When possible (and doesn't everyone), I like my QB2 to be more than a QB2. If given the opportunity, I like my QB2 to be a guy with strong QB1 potential. But I'll put up with a little poorer immediate value for higher long term upside. Bradford's hype has taken a hit for his recent arm injuries, his poor OL and his horrible weapons. I'm an optimist here, though. I'm not concerned with the durability issue and the surrounding cast can be fixed. I see a QB with ideal size, a very good arm strength/accuracy combination and good decision-making skills. Players like that project to 20+ TDs with a great completion percentage and TD/INT ratio. His floor would seemingly be a mid-QB2. Hence, for me, Bradford over Palmer, etal.

I was happy to still get Stephen Tulloch in the late 12th. I entered the draft expecting to slough the linebacker position a little bit unless there were too good to pass values on the board. That nearly happened with Barrett Ruud (LB6 in the 8th round) and DJ Williams (LB12 in the 11th). I was disappointed to not get a look at Karlos Dansby here, but Tulloch is a strong selection as the LB17. His potential -- 94-27-2 taking only 77% of his team's snaps -- is enormous. There's reason to be concerned that's he won't be a long term every-down player, but I think it's well worth the risk. Given the usual tendency of dynasty owners to underrate "old" linebackers in startup drafts, I'm expecting to surround Tulloch with some pretty good veteran talent along the way.

Still working under the "best player available within the tier framework" plan for now.

As an aside, this draft has started to break down a little sooner than I expected. Usually, team philosophies and depth of draft boards begin cracking a bit 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the draft. Everyone values players and drafts differently, but I think that a few of the picks in the past two rounds suggest that the cracks in the dam may be happening much sooner than that for a couple of teams here.

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How do you feel about Cliff Avril's upside? Does he win the every down role on the left side, and if so, can he break out with the upgrades the Lions made to the line?

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The Dyn Ex draft continues...

1.05 WR Andre Johnson

2.08 RB Rashard Mendenhall

3.05 WR Michael Crabtree

5.01 QB Philip Rivers

5.08 TE Vernon Davis

6.06 RB Donald Brown

7.05 WR Hines Ward

8.08 RB Ronnie Brown

8.12 TE Tony Gonzalez

9.05 DL Terrell Suggs

11.05 QB Sam Bradford

12.08 LB Stephen Tulloch

Despite trying to find a 10th round (and later 11th round) pick at a bargain price, I elected to watch and wait until the 11.05.

I very nearly got extremely lucky to get DJ Williams with that pick nearly 7 full rounds after Patrick Willis and Jon Beason went off the board, but he went just a couple of picks ahead of the 11.05. Instead, I was happy to grab Sam Bradford. There's a reasonable argument here that it's way too early for a backup QB, especially after already drafting Philip Rivers early. However, I felt the tiers at the two or three positions of probably greater need/potentially higher scarcity remained deep enough to draft Bradford.

That suggests that I think Bradford is a bit higher than Carson Palmer and a few others yet to be drafted at the position. In a dynasty league, I think there's a clear decision to be made with your QB2 philosophy. When possible (and doesn't everyone), I like my QB2 to be more than a QB2. If given the opportunity, I like my QB2 to be a guy with strong QB1 potential. Bradford's hype has taken a hit for his recent arm injuries, his poor OL and his horrible weapons. I'm an optimist here, though. I'm not concerned with the durability issue and the surrounding cast can be fixed. I see a QB with ideal size, a very good arm strength/accuracy combination and good decision-making skills. Players like that project to 20+ TDs with a great completion percentage and TD/INT ratio. His floor would seemingly be a mid-QB2.

I was happy to still get Stephen Tulloch in the late 12th. I entered the draft expecting to slough the linebacker position a little bit unless there were too good to pass values on the board. That nearly happened with Barrett Ruud (LB6 in the 8th round) and DJ Williams (LB12 in the 11th). I was disappointed to not get a look at Karlos Dansby here, but Tulloch is a strong selection as the LB17. His potential -- 94-27-2 taking only 77% of his team's snaps -- is enormous. There's reason to be concerned that's he won't be a long term every-down player, but I think it's well worth the risk. Given the usual tendency of dynasty owners to underrate "old" linebackers in startup drafts, I'm expecting to surround Tulloch with some pretty good veteran talent along the way.

Still working under the "best player available within the tier framework" plan for now.

As an aside, this draft has started to break down a little sooner than I expected. Usually, team philosophies and depth of draft boards begin cracking a bit 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the draft. Everyone values players and drafts differently, but I think that a few of the picks in the past two rounds suggest that the cracks in the dam may be happening much sooner than that for a couple of teams here.

Awesome strategic insight, Doc. Especially helpful at this point in the draft. Contemporary FF leagues are so competitive that it's almost impossible to start seeing value in any draft until around round 10 or so. While it's already been a very nice draft, hopefully your disciplined execution will yield some real bargains in the next several rounds.

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How do you feel about Cliff Avril's upside? Does he win the every down role on the left side, and if so, can he break out with the upgrades the Lions made to the line?

I still like Avril on paper, but he's yet to impress more than one coaching staff enough in pads to give him an extended look at every-down snaps (>65-70%). I think it's likely that his first promotion would be from nickel rusher to rotational end by series which would give him around 70% of the snaps. If he holds up, there's DL2 upside, but he's failed to beat out similar competition in the past.He's a boom-bust DL3 for me -- win a job or not -- until he proves himself more consistent in both phases on the field.Interested in other opinions here. I've waffled on this guy a lot over the past couple of seasons.

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I love the Tulloch pick, Jene. I'm a huge fan of him and his potential, as you correctly point out, is enormous.

I'm enjoying keeping up with your draft. Keep up the good work and the strategy. BPA is the way to go. :popcorn:

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I've tried that Bradford strategy twice... I picked up Carson Palmer after his no-snap rookie season in a startup in about the 11th, and I took JaMarcus Russell after his holdout rookie year in another startup around the same place. I think it's a good strategy, even if Russell's a turd.

Tulloch is a good pick there - he's certainly not a guy you can put in the top tier, but he's comfortably in the second tier, and this is the highest value spot for LBs in a startup in my opinion. Wait for LB12 to go, then take more than one guy in rounds 12-18.

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The Dyn Ex draft continues...

1.05 WR Andre Johnson

2.08 RB Rashard Mendenhall

3.05 WR Michael Crabtree

5.01 QB Philip Rivers

5.08 TE Vernon Davis

6.06 RB Donald Brown

7.05 WR Hines Ward

8.08 RB Ronnie Brown

8.12 TE Tony Gonzalez

9.05 DL Terrell Suggs

11.05 QB Sam Bradford

12.08 LB Stephen Tulloch

FLASH POLL: What would you have done? :)

Draft Donald Driver at 13.05

or

Trade 13.05/31.05/32.08 for 15.04/20.09/23.04?

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I'd say Driver. He should still have at least 1 more good year in him in a great offense

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The Dyn Ex draft continues...

1.05 WR Andre Johnson

2.08 RB Rashard Mendenhall

3.05 WR Michael Crabtree

5.01 QB Philip Rivers

5.08 TE Vernon Davis

6.06 RB Donald Brown

7.05 WR Hines Ward

8.08 RB Ronnie Brown

8.12 TE Tony Gonzalez

9.05 DL Terrell Suggs

11.05 QB Sam Bradford

12.08 LB Stephen Tulloch

FLASH POLL: What would you have done? :)

Draft Donald Driver at 13.05

or

Trade 13.05/31.05/32.08 for 15.04/20.09/23.04?

I'm the opposite of the previous post. I think the value of that deal is too good to pass up, plus, I'm not sure I would want both Driver and Ward in a startup because there will be 2 holes to fill at WR relatively soon. I'd rather wait the 2 rounds and take my chances. Those picks in the 20th and 23rd are far more valuable than the 31 and 32 IMO and the cost looks good to me.

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The Dyn Ex draft continues...

1.05 WR Andre Johnson

2.08 RB Rashard Mendenhall

3.05 WR Michael Crabtree

5.01 QB Philip Rivers

5.08 TE Vernon Davis

6.06 RB Donald Brown

7.05 WR Hines Ward

8.08 RB Ronnie Brown

8.12 TE Tony Gonzalez

9.05 DL Terrell Suggs

11.05 QB Sam Bradford

12.08 LB Stephen Tulloch

Despite trying to find a 10th round (and later 11th round) pick at a bargain price, I elected to watch and wait until the 11.05.

I very nearly got extremely lucky to get DJ Williams with that pick nearly 7 full rounds after Patrick Willis and Jon Beason went off the board, but he went just a couple of picks ahead of the 11.05. Instead, I was happy to grab Sam Bradford. There's a reasonable argument here that it's way too early for a backup QB, especially after already drafting Philip Rivers early. However, I felt the tiers at the two or three positions of probably greater need/potentially higher scarcity remained deep enough to draft Bradford.

That suggests that I think Bradford is a bit higher than Carson Palmer and a few others yet to be drafted at the position. In a dynasty league, I think there's a clear decision to be made with your QB2 philosophy. When possible (and doesn't everyone), I like my QB2 to be more than a QB2. If given the opportunity, I like my QB2 to be a guy with strong QB1 potential. Bradford's hype has taken a hit for his recent arm injuries, his poor OL and his horrible weapons. I'm an optimist here, though. I'm not concerned with the durability issue and the surrounding cast can be fixed. I see a QB with ideal size, a very good arm strength/accuracy combination and good decision-making skills. Players like that project to 20+ TDs with a great completion percentage and TD/INT ratio. His floor would seemingly be a mid-QB2.

I was happy to still get Stephen Tulloch in the late 12th. I entered the draft expecting to slough the linebacker position a little bit unless there were too good to pass values on the board. That nearly happened with Barrett Ruud (LB6 in the 8th round) and DJ Williams (LB12 in the 11th). I was disappointed to not get a look at Karlos Dansby here, but Tulloch is a strong selection as the LB17. His potential -- 94-27-2 taking only 77% of his team's snaps -- is enormous. There's reason to be concerned that's he won't be a long term every-down player, but I think it's well worth the risk. Given the usual tendency of dynasty owners to underrate "old" linebackers in startup drafts, I'm expecting to surround Tulloch with some pretty good veteran talent along the way.

Still working under the "best player available within the tier framework" plan for now.

As an aside, this draft has started to break down a little sooner than I expected. Usually, team philosophies and depth of draft boards begin cracking a bit 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the draft. Everyone values players and drafts differently, but I think that a few of the picks in the past two rounds suggest that the cracks in the dam may be happening much sooner than that for a couple of teams here.

Awesome strategic insight, Doc. Especially helpful at this point in the draft. Contemporary FF leagues are so competitive that it's almost impossible to start seeing value in any draft until around round 10 or so. While it's already been a very nice draft, hopefully your disciplined execution will yield some real bargains in the next several rounds.
It's amazing to see the difference between leagues. I'm in the midst of a 16-team dynasty startup right now. In comparison to your draft, QBs have been FLYING off the board.

Pick Ovr Franchise Selection Date/Time Comments

1.02 2. Sicily Interceptors Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB Wed May 26 9:00:14 a.m. ET 2010 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

1.03 3. Ronkonkoma Hot Dogs Brees, Drew NOS QB Wed May 26 9:09:52 a.m. ET 2010

1.08 8. Natchitoches Numbchucks Manning, Peyton IND QB Thu May 27 4:48:41 p.m. ET 2010

1.11 11. Clydesdale Pants Crickets Schaub, Matt HOU QB Thu May 27 10:58:41 p.m. ET 2010

2.02 18. Lake Oswego "Insert Mascot Here" Rivers, Philip SDC QB Fri May 28 7:40:11 p.m. ET 2010

2.04 20. New Jersey Bandits Romo, Tony DAL QB Fri May 28 8:46:29 p.m. ET 2010

2.09 25. New Mexico MoJo Brady, Tom NEP QB Sat May 29 6:07:00 p.m. ET 2010

2.16 32. Aurora Borealis Flacco, Joe BAL QB Sun May 30 3:07:52 p.m. ET 2010

3.05 37. Petaluma Cow Tippers Kolb, Kevin PHI QB Sun May 30 11:23:18 p.m. ET 2010 Im sure this will raise some eybrows

3.07 39. Chicago Drunken Squirrels Cutler, Jay CHI QB Mon May 31 12:26:18 a.m. ET 2010

3.10 42. Boston Pooch Punts Stafford, Matthew DET QB Mon May 31 8:24:02 a.m. ET 2010 Apparently I'm playing for 2013.

3.13 45. Detroit Jaz Ryan, Matt ATL QB Mon May 31 3:41:32 p.m. ET 2010 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

3.16 48. Kingston Red Stripes Manning, Eli NYG QB Mon May 31 6:27:45 p.m. ET 2010 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

5.12 76. East Bay Soul Chickens McNabb, Donovan WAS QB Wed Jun 2 1:31:04 a.m. ET 2010

5.13 77. Syracuse Crush Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB Wed Jun 2 8:04:55 a.m. ET 2010

6.15 95. Sicily Interceptors Palmer, Carson CIN QB Wed Jun 2 11:53:53 p.m. ET 2010

7.01 97. New Jersey Bandits Henne, Chad MIA QB Thu Jun 3 6:21:40 a.m. ET 2010

7.09 105. Kingston Red Stripes Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB Thu Jun 3 1:38:33 p.m. ET 2010

7.12 108. Pittsburgh Left Nuts Favre, Brett MIN QB Thu Jun 3 6:29:55 p.m. ET 2010 Did he retire yet?

8.01 113. New Mexico MoJo Freeman, Josh TBB QB Thu Jun 3 11:14:37 p.m. ET 2010

8.05 117. Pittsburgh Left Nuts Young, Vince TEN QB Fri Jun 4 1:03:42 p.m. ET 2010

8.06 118. Ronkonkoma Hot Dogs Smith, Alex SFO QB Fri Jun 4 1:39:02 p.m. ET 2010 Damn, I wanted vince young.... oh well

8.09 121. Aurora Borealis Leinart, Matt ARI QB Fri Jun 4 1:54:59 p.m. ET 2010 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

FOUR 1st rounders and 13 gone by the end of round 3. Stafford was picked as a QB1 at the end of the 3rd.

Needless to say, I wasn't going to chase the run, so I held off until Favre at 7.12 and then went with VY at 8.05. With 1.05 who will probably be Bradford, I feel good about that... but it's interesting to see how the different leagues value players differently. Also, note - this is a contract league, and player salaries are based on their performance last year. QBs in general are expensive - nearly double the cost of every other position. And rookies are fixed based on draft position, with 1.01 being $3m and going down from there.

LBs were, as usual, the first IDPs off the board, with Willis going first at 3.09 (WAAAAAY too early for my tastes). We're now in the 9th round and I haven't taken my first IDP - I'll probably break the seal soon with a DE, and then turn towards collecting a few underrated LB2 prospects.

LBs:

3.09 41. Natchitoches Numbchucks Willis, Patrick SFO LB Mon May 31 1:13:48 a.m. ET 2010

3.15 47. Boston Pooch Punts Beason, Jon CAR LB Mon May 31 6:27:44 p.m. ET 2010

4.15 63. Sicily Interceptors Harris, David NYJ LB Tue Jun 1 8:14:32 a.m. ET 2010

5.08 72. Detroit Jaz Laurinaitis, James STL LB Tue Jun 1 11:00:08 p.m. ET 2010

5.10 74. Lake Oswego "Insert Mascot Here" Ruud, Barrett TBB LB Wed Jun 2 12:34:40 a.m. ET 2010

5.14 78. New Jersey Bandits Lofton, Curtis ATL LB Wed Jun 2 8:06:35 a.m. ET 2010

6.06 86. New Jersey Bandits Ryans, DeMeco HOU LB Wed Jun 2 6:03:56 p.m. ET 2010

6.07 87. Lake Oswego "Insert Mascot Here" Williams, DJ DEN LB Wed Jun 2 6:48:44 p.m. ET 2010

6.12 92. Petaluma Cow Tippers Posluszny, Paul BUF LB Wed Jun 2 11:02:22 p.m. ET 2010

6.14 94. Ronkonkoma Hot Dogs Morrison, Kirk JAC LB Wed Jun 2 11:08:42 p.m. ET 2010

7.02 98. Sicily Interceptors Vilma, Jonathan NOS LB Thu Jun 3 6:21:41 a.m. ET 2010 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

7.03 99. Ronkonkoma Hot Dogs Jackson, D'Qwell CLE LB Thu Jun 3 6:21:41 a.m. ET 2010 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

7.04 100. Natchitoches Numbchucks Cushing, Brian HOU LB Thu Jun 3 6:21:41 a.m. ET 2010 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

7.05 101. Petaluma Cow Tippers Hayes, Geno TBB LB Thu Jun 3 9:38:12 a.m. ET 2010

7.06 102. Detroit Jaz Mayo, Jerod NEP LB Thu Jun 3 9:38:13 a.m. ET 2010 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

7.11 107. Chicago Drunken Squirrels Dansby, Karlos MIA LB Thu Jun 3 5:05:23 p.m. ET 2010

7.13 109. Syracuse Crush Tulloch, Stephen TEN LB Thu Jun 3 6:29:56 p.m. ET 2010 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

7.16 112. Kingston Red Stripes Levy, DeAndre DET LB Thu Jun 3 9:48:43 p.m. ET 2010 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

8.04 116. Syracuse Crush Timmons, Lawrence PIT LB Fri Jun 4 1:02:53 a.m. ET 2010 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

DLs & DBs:

6.13 93. New Jersey Bandits Allen, Jared MIN DE Wed Jun 2 11:04:02 p.m. ET 2010

7.10 106. Boston Pooch Punts Williams, Mario HOU DE Thu Jun 3 1:41:22 p.m. ET 2010

8.02 114. East Bay Soul Chickens Pollard, Bernard HOU S Fri Jun 4 12:30:34 a.m. ET 2010

8.03 115. Lake Oswego "Insert Mascot Here" Cole, Trent PHI DE Fri Jun 4 1:02:52 a.m. ET 2010

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The Dyn Ex draft continues...

1.05 WR Andre Johnson

2.08 RB Rashard Mendenhall

3.05 WR Michael Crabtree

5.01 QB Philip Rivers

5.08 TE Vernon Davis

6.06 RB Donald Brown

7.05 WR Hines Ward

8.08 RB Ronnie Brown

8.12 TE Tony Gonzalez

9.05 DL Terrell Suggs

11.05 QB Sam Bradford

12.08 LB Stephen Tulloch

FLASH POLL: What would you have done? :hophead:

Draft Donald Driver at 13.05

or

Trade 13.05/31.05/32.08 for 15.04/20.09/23.04?

I'm the opposite of the previous post. I think the value of that deal is too good to pass up, plus, I'm not sure I would want both Driver and Ward in a startup because there will be 2 holes to fill at WR relatively soon. I'd rather wait the 2 rounds and take my chances. Those picks in the 20th and 23rd are far more valuable than the 31 and 32 IMO and the cost looks good to me.
Agreed. I'll tell you what - I personally like Driver over Ward, so I think he's SIGNIFICANT value at 13.05. In a PPR, I think he's a top 20 WR this year and I also think he might stick around in GB with Rodgers longer than people think.... and I LOVE taking value on the offensive side because I feel confident taking my IDPs later. Then again, assuming none of those picks are rookie picks (ours are 28-33), that's a pretty big jump.

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The Dyn Ex draft continues...

1.05 WR Andre Johnson

2.08 RB Rashard Mendenhall

3.05 WR Michael Crabtree

5.01 QB Philip Rivers

5.08 TE Vernon Davis

6.06 RB Donald Brown

7.05 WR Hines Ward

8.08 RB Ronnie Brown

8.12 TE Tony Gonzalez

9.05 DL Terrell Suggs

11.05 QB Sam Bradford

12.08 LB Stephen Tulloch

14.08 WR Jabar Gaffney

This draft has significantly bogged down over the weekends. I'm expecting the commish to crack the whip with the timer shortly. Things very often pick up quickly midway through the draft, but the most recent waits haven't been trade related and have been much longer than usual. Action should pick back up again if you're following along more often than I'm updating.

In the interim, I dealt my 13th round pick for fairly sizable bumps in upcoming rounds. I agree with the sentiments expressed on Donald Driver -- who would have been my pick -- and he fits right in with Ward as guys that are often seen as too old but ready made high value flex+ options in startups like this. In the end, I'm likely picking up ground in two significant tiers with this trade and, after watching the draft boards of some owners continue to break down, wasn't worried about being able to grab a player with similar value to Driver later.

Like Jabar Gaffney.

Gaffney isn't anything special and I'm not necessarily down on Demaryius Thomas. But this is a spread offense that will throw the ball plenty. They have no established WR1, no established TE and a major question mark at WR. I think there's 110-120 target potential here and 75+ catch upside with a relatively high floor for an upside flex option. If Gaffney had gone before the 14.08, there's a short list of similar talents that could be had here or later. That's the power of using tiers in these drafts and it makes trading for value easy when the tiers align the right way.

Two picks upcoming at 15.04 and 15.05. Depending on how the next handful of picks go, there's still plenty of value to be had in my three most likely targeted areas and I may be looking to deal back again.

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The Dyn Ex draft continues...

1.05 WR Andre Johnson

2.08 RB Rashard Mendenhall

3.05 WR Michael Crabtree

5.01 QB Philip Rivers

5.08 TE Vernon Davis

6.06 RB Donald Brown

7.05 WR Hines Ward

8.08 RB Ronnie Brown

8.12 TE Tony Gonzalez

9.05 DL Terrell Suggs

11.05 QB Sam Bradford

12.08 LB Stephen Tulloch

14.08 WR Jabar Gaffney

15.04 RB Laurence Maroney

16.06 LB Nick Barnett

17.05 LB Gary Brackett

Still playing the tier game here in the middle rounds. This tier, across almost every position, is filled with a few established talents. I think the upside that's here is either limited or has a relatively low percentage chance of hitting. No surprise there, really. Generally speaking, I'm waiting for the tiers to shrink, then looking to pounce on a mix of upside and reliability.

I had picks 15.04 and 15.05, but there were about 15 players at 15.04 that I had interest in drafting, so I moved 15.05 for picks in the 19th and 23rd round. I now have a short break after the 17.05, but nine picks in the 19th-23rd rounds. Not as sexy as having that many picks piled up a few rounds earlier, but it should still prove valuable.

Laurence Maroney is a siren of sorts for me. I liked him just a little better than DeAngelo Williams in his rookie year and he's shown tantalizing flashes of what I hoped he'd become in the years since. And, though I expect Belichick to continue the RBBC plan, there's enough reason for optimism to continue to bypass the other flex options at RB/WR/TE and linebackers in this tier and look for some upside with the RB47. He's just 25 years old, has relatively little mileage and is in a contract year. He averaged just under 4.5 ypc in his first two years in the league. He may never be a 300 carry a year player, but it isn't unthinkable that he could be a bit of a late bloomer, either in NE or elsewhere.

Maroney was a viable risk, as were guys like Bradford and Gaffney, because of the depth of the second tier of linebackers. Nick Barnett and Gary Brackett are every bit as valuable as many linebackers taken above them and they were the LB27 and LB30 off the board. Again, there were a couple of backers I may have moved on sooner, but I'm not losing much ground (if any) with Tulloch, Barnett and Brackett rotating by matchup. I'm a little disappointed that guys like DeAndre Levy and Daryl Washington went at the absolute height of their expected draft position, but the strategy of sloughing the LB2 tier worked out well here.

I'm likely to try to scalp a pick in the 18th round if possible, but will otherwise sit tight and hope my tiers hold their current depth over the next few rounds while I look to fill out the team.

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I totally agree that your LB strategy worked out well. Barnett and Brackett are solid and great value where you drafted them. Barnett at LB27 is an absolute steal.

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You're really killing in this draft - Barnett/Brackett is really nice. Maroney's a great chance to take there. I don't know about Gaffney - I think your WRs are a little weak and old.

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The Dyn Ex draft continues...

We're now into the 21st round (of 40). Here's how the roster looks currently:

QB Rivers/Bradford

RB Mendenhall/RBrown/DBrown/Maroney

WR AJohnson/Crabtree/HWard/JGaffney/DMason/JCotchery/LRobinson

TE VDavis/Gonzalez

DL Suggs

LB Tulloch/Barnett/Brackett/Maualuga/Butler

DB Bell

I'm a little over halfway through a nine pick in five round stretch here and I think I was able to put together a mix of value and upside with the first six picks. I started this run of picks a little disappointed that I couldn't move up into the 18th round to draft Aaron Hernandez (Pasquino and Tonn are regularly sniping me) or Cadillac Williams (who I would've drafted as early as the 15.05 had I not traded back, then wanted to lock down the two vet LBs).

19.04 WR Derrick Mason

19.05 DB Yeremiah Bell

20.08 WR Laurent Robinson

20.09 LB Rey Maualuga

21.04 WR Jerricho Cotchery

21.05 LB Donald Butler

I couldn't pass up the potential flex value of Mason and Cotchery at their respective points in the draft. Unfortunately, I thought I'd be able to get two of the four younger WR targets on my board in the 20th round, but Chaz Schilens, Malcom Floyd and Devin Thomas went between the 19.05 and 20.08, so I was only able to grab Laurent Robinson out of that group of potentials.

With the relative minimal value for DBs in this league (tackle heavy, minimal big play bonuses and start just two each week), I have just 20 defensive backs on my board. I may take just one, I might take three or four depending on the value presented. Yeremiah Bell continued to fall and I decided his value as the 12th DB off the board was too good to pass.

Maualuga and Butler are upside picks and luxuries at this point. There are more than a couple teams already drafting youth and potential at the height of expected draft positions and I decided a little reaching was worth the risk with my current roster situation. I'm still hoping/expecting to be able to add a pretty strong LB4 in the next few rounds.

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You're really killing in this draft - Barnett/Brackett is really nice. Maroney's a great chance to take there. I don't know about Gaffney - I think your WRs are a little weak and old.

Thanks, Tick.I'm a little worried about the WR group, too. The Rivers, Davis and DBrown selections cost me at least one WR from a higher tier for sure. I think the top two will prove strong for the next 3-5 years, though, and I'm hoping to be able to cycle through the rest of the depth to fill the flex spots until I can (hopefully) roster another longer term option or two. I've still got 20 rounds to add developmental potential. With seven WRs already rostered and the pool of WR much, much deeper than RB right now, I think it's possible/likely that I'll have 10-14 WRs rostered by draft's end.

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The one thing about WR is that it's usually easier to fill in a rookie draft... good teams get late round 1sts, but there's often value to be had there at WR... not so much at RB which is often overvalued.

As I said, I'm doing a 16 team draft right now which went in dramatically different directions.

In particular, I waited a lot on IDPs thinking there would be a lot of value there as they flew off the board, but I may have to work the WW hard this year.

QB: Favre, VY, Matt Moore

RB: J-Stew, Lynch, M.Bush, Chester Taylor

WR: Fitz, Nicks, Steve Smith, Brandon Tate

TE: Witten

DL: Everette Brown, L.Jackson

LB: Dumervil, Greenway, Derrick Johnson, Sims :sick:

DB: Chung, Rhodes (whatever, easy to replace :shrug:)

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You're really killing in this draft - Barnett/Brackett is really nice. Maroney's a great chance to take there. I don't know about Gaffney - I think your WRs are a little weak and old.

Thanks, Tick.I'm a little worried about the WR group, too. The Rivers, Davis and DBrown selections cost me at least one WR from a higher tier for sure. I think the top two will prove strong for the next 3-5 years, though, and I'm hoping to be able to cycle through the rest of the depth to fill the flex spots until I can (hopefully) roster another longer term option or two. I've still got 20 rounds to add developmental potential. With seven WRs already rostered and the pool of WR much, much deeper than RB right now, I think it's possible/likely that I'll have 10-14 WRs rostered by draft's end.
Jene, great draft so far and fascinating to see your in-draft adjustments.As your roster develops further and flushes out strengths/weaknesses, what are your general thoughts on how to monetize your strength at the TE position? Are you going to be opportunistic and perhaps wait until another team has in-season issues from injury/non-performance or more proactive shopping one of your guys perhaps in a pkg deal? Or just keep both as [expensive] insurance?I would think with Tony G. and some of the other older guys you have there is increasing risk with each game played during the season that their value could go to zero rather quickly. I know it's still way early but you've been very strategic to this point and guessing you've at least given this some preliminary thought.

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You're really killing in this draft - Barnett/Brackett is really nice. Maroney's a great chance to take there. I don't know about Gaffney - I think your WRs are a little weak and old.

Thanks, Tick.I'm a little worried about the WR group, too. The Rivers, Davis and DBrown selections cost me at least one WR from a higher tier for sure. I think the top two will prove strong for the next 3-5 years, though, and I'm hoping to be able to cycle through the rest of the depth to fill the flex spots until I can (hopefully) roster another longer term option or two. I've still got 20 rounds to add developmental potential. With seven WRs already rostered and the pool of WR much, much deeper than RB right now, I think it's possible/likely that I'll have 10-14 WRs rostered by draft's end.
Jene, great draft so far and fascinating to see your in-draft adjustments.As your roster develops further and flushes out strengths/weaknesses, what are your general thoughts on how to monetize your strength at the TE position? Are you going to be opportunistic and perhaps wait until another team has in-season issues from injury/non-performance or more proactive shopping one of your guys perhaps in a pkg deal? Or just keep both as [expensive] insurance?I would think with Tony G. and some of the other older guys you have there is increasing risk with each game played during the season that their value could go to zero rather quickly. I know it's still way early but you've been very strategic to this point and guessing you've at least given this some preliminary thought.
The Gonzalez pick was made with winning this season in mind. I see his 80-1000-8 potential as a top flex option. I'm hoping to maximize that strength in my own lineup with advantage at a flex slot. But, yes, with Davis rostered, I'll not be refusing a strong offer if someone wants him as their TE1 this year. My guess is, however, since he slid to the TE8 position and a guy like Jeremy Shockey is still on the board, that I'm not likely to be overwhelmed with a deal unless a contender has an injury down the road.I look at the value of guys like Hines Ward, Derrick Mason and Tony Gonzalez like this:1. If they produce as I expect they might this year, their high value flex targets important to my lineup now.2. If they fall off quicker than expected, they're easier to cut than that high upside player I'm hoping breaks out sooner than later.3. 40 man rosters allow for plenty of cheaper upside without nearly the same investment already, i.e. I can roster Laurent Robinson rounds after Donnie Avery, etc.4. If they produce as I expect they might this year, but my team flounders anyway, I might be able to turn them into upside targets in deadline deals.Essentially, I think a certain subset of old guys -- team players who've been durable and who aren't dependent on pure speed and athleticism to produce statistically -- have good value in dynasty leagues. Sure, they'll turn over faster, but look at a roster of a team you liked from 2-3 years ago and see how many guys you thought would be around in Year +2 or +3 are still there. I think the immediate upside of these players (assuming you get them at a discount and aren't counting on them as key lineup figures) is worth the likelihood that you'll have to replace them a little sooner than a high upside player that hits.

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The Dyn Ex draft is winding up...

I've not had a chance to update my thoughts on this draft for a few days, and we've moved along into the very late rounds of this draft now. I thought I'd quickly run through this draft positionally with a few comments rather than profiling a bunch of draft picks made with depth and upside in mind.

Philip Rivers

Sam Bradford

Kyle Orton

The Orton pick might come back to bite me. There were players at other positions I liked, but passed on to grab Orton as an impulse injury hedge. Generally, that's a poor strategy and it's likely to prove to be here, too. Orton may be slightly better than Bradford as an injury replacement for a competitive 2010 team, but he's got little trade value, little upside and little chance of pushing this team over replacement level production at the QB position. I'd probably have been better off sticking with two QBs here and making a trade if needed.

Rashard Mendenhall

Ronnie Brown

Donald Brown

Laurence Maroney

Correll Buckhalter

I don't mind being thin here after choosing to prioritize QB and TE in the middle rounds. It's a flex league with PPR and only one RB requirement so I don't feel the need to load up on marginal potential here. I'd likely have gone six or seven deep (and would have grabbed guys like Cadillac Williams or a few younger potentials) had the draft fallen differently, but I've got two guys with age and depth chart considerations on their side in Mendenhall and DBrown and a couple of other reasonable vets (with Maroney only 25) behind them.

Andre Johnson

Michael Crabtree

Hines Ward

Derrick Mason

Jerricho Cotchery

Jabar Gaffney

Mike Thomas

Laurent Robinson

Malcolm Kelly

Legadu Naanee

Damian Williams

Over a quarter of my roster invested at WR and I'm likely not done yet with a handful of draft picks left to make. I chose to focus on targets primarily and to look for players who could become their team's WR1 in time with the late flyer picks. I like Robinson enough to think this group goes eight deep with 70+ catch potential this year, and I'll be surprised if there's not 4-5 good options for the starting lineup each week.

Vernon Davis

Tony Gonzalez

Shawn Nelson

Plenty of discussion about the top two in earlier posts and I was happy to get Nelson late. I like his scouting report and can easily see him growing into a nice TE2/flex option in the longer term.

Rob Bironas

Took Bironas a little earlier than I usually take a kicker, but there's a lot of uncertainty out there right now and he's got a late bye week should I not feel comfortable with what's left later in the draft.

Terrell Suggs

Alex Brown

Matt Shaughnessy

Defensive ends are more valuable than the scoring system makes them look because of the start two requirement. Tackles are key here and all three of these guys should top 40 solos if Shaughnessy gets enough snaps. Suggs and Brown might top 45 each. I'm not looking to add another body here unless/until I need a lineup body. There should be enough 3-4 defensive linemen with decent tackle numbers to fill in if I'm in a pinch.

Stephen Tulloch

Nick Barnett

Gary Brackett

EJ Henderson

Derrick Johnson

Rey Maualuga

Donald Butler

This group is a half full, half empty prop. Tulloch, Butler and Maualuga could be long term, every-down backers with LB1 potential at bargain prices or I might be cycling for bodies when Barnett, Brackett and Henderson wear down over the next two seasons. I think Barnett and Henderson are being underrated right now and should be steady LB2 options with weekly upside. I was kicking myself for missing the news that Johnson was working with the first team at times in minicamp shortly after I made a pick and was fortunate that he was there for my next pick. If Johnson sends Demorrio Williams to the bench, he may finally fulfill the statistical promise that I seem to tout every year.

Yeremiah Bell

Patrick Chung

Narrowly missed adding Brian Dawkins super late, so I may be done drafting this position, too. It's very common for coaches in the Belichick system to hold back a rookie safety until he's ready to direct the coverages and I'm still expecting Chung to win the starting SS job this year.

It's hard not to like your team after a startup draft, but I think there's good potential for this team to be good now and hold its core for a few years. The depth and upside isn't particularly sexy or flashy, but I think there's reasonable upside without extremely low floors to be found everywhere. Two other teams in my division look like upper tier rosters, so it'll be interesting to see how the first year turns out.

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I said earlier I didn't like the age of your WRs... then this:

Mike Thomas

Laurent Robinson

Malcolm Kelly

Legadu Naanee

Damian Williams

I love that - every one of those picks is a steal this late in a draft. Kelly in particular is a guy I think is undervalued... just curious, where did Devin Thomas go?

I don't like your DBs since we don't know what Chung's role will be, but you'll be able to pick up a couple in preaseason, I'm sure.

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It's hard not to like your team after a startup draft

:banned: Truer words were never spoken. Your team looks solid with no glaring holes and you have a strong core of young elite offensive talent. Rivers, Mendenhall, Andre, Crabtree, and Vernon Davis will anchor you for years. I like the Chung pick. He will start eventually and has top 5 potential, and if he doesn't right away, it's not a big deal because starting fantasy safeties are easy to find. You also got great value with your LBs considering where you drafted them.

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I said earlier I didn't like the age of your WRs... then this:Mike ThomasLaurent RobinsonMalcolm KellyLegadu NaaneeDamian WilliamsI love that - every one of those picks is a steal this late in a draft. Kelly in particular is a guy I think is undervalued... just curious, where did Devin Thomas go?I don't like your DBs since we don't know what Chung's role will be, but you'll be able to pick up a couple in preaseason, I'm sure.

Devin Thomas went in the 20th round, one pick before I was strongly considering taking him. I took Kelly in the 24th round.

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Lots of timers expiring over the past week, but the 40 man roster is finally set.

My final five picks:

BenJarvus Green-Ellis -- Pretty good late risk to pair with Maroney. If there is to be a bell cow back in NE's future and he's on the roster, there's a 99% chance it's either Maroney or BJGE.

Rennie Curran -- Not that handcuffing LBs is a good strategy, but Curran is a good player and a reasonable hedge if Tulloch isn't signed to a long-term deal.

Brian Robiskie/Jarrett Dillard -- More young WR with a little talent and open WR2 slots with their respective offenses.

Jay Feely -- Whatever.

Now it's time to hope for good training camp results and health for my core. It'll be a three team race in my division and both DynastyGuys and FantasySharks look like top six contenders easily.

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