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Cleveland Browns (11 Viewers)

After having seen Foles win a Super Bowl, I'm not drafting a QB unless I'm sure it's the next Manning/Rodgers/etc.
Foles didn't win a Super Bowl.  Foles with a coaching staff that put him in a position to be successful won a Super Bowl.  This coaching staff doesn't put their guys in position to be successful - they put them in position to operate their system.

 
Cjw_55106 said:
It’s not silly at all. None of the QBs are flawless and many have them all ranked about equal. Meanwhile, many have Barkley slated as a once a decade type of RB. 
True - but it all comes down to Dorsey's rankings.  We can play armchair GM all day long, but it's ultimately up to Dorsey on what he does.  If he has Rosen, Darnold, and Mayfield ranked similarly, then I can see where Barkley goes first and you let the draft play out.  But if there is one QB who is heads and shoulders above the others, then I'd think you take that QB at 1 and look for either Barkley, B.Chubb or Minkah at 4 - if not possibly trade down if one of the other QBs fall into that spot.  If NYG or IND doesn't take a QB, that #4 pick will be ripe for trading down and netting some additional picks in 2018/2019.

 
True - but it all comes down to Dorsey's rankings.  We can play armchair GM all day long, but it's ultimately up to Dorsey on what he does.  If he has Rosen, Darnold, and Mayfield ranked similarly, then I can see where Barkley goes first and you let the draft play out.  But if there is one QB who is heads and shoulders above the others, then I'd think you take that QB at 1 and look for either Barkley, B.Chubb or Minkah at 4 - if not possibly trade down if one of the other QBs fall into that spot.  If NYG or IND doesn't take a QB, that #4 pick will be ripe for trading down and netting some additional picks in 2018/2019.
I heard that Dorsey has never used a high pick on a RB.  

 
I heard that Dorsey has never used a high pick on a RB.  
Historically, he hasn't.  But I would challenge that based on whether the need was there to get one, or if he had two top 4 picks in the draft.  If we don't know how to compare the situations, we can't make declarative statements based on previous history.  Having two picks in the top 4 is rare, and not many GMs have been in that position.  This to me is an outlier and a game-changer when talking about stats and historical perspectives.

 
How well are the Cleveland Browns set up for this draft?

How about the best in modern NFL history.

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2018/who-should-own-the-2018-nfl-draft

...the Cleveland Browns should absolutely own the 2018 NFL draft 

See diagram >> 117.5 draft points is 162% above the NFL average,

Bill Barnwell performed analysis of the most draft points in the NFL since the 1970 merger.  He broke the historical draft classes into two periods:  the “Classic” period from 1970-1992, and the “Modern” period from 1993-2017.

How well did Sashi Brown’s analytical front office approach set up this Browns team for success in the 2018 draft?

The 2018 Browns have the most draft capital of any team in the modern era, which dates back to 1993, and

the 2018 Browns have the third most draft capital of all time (dating back to 1970), with only the 1991 Cowboys (132.2 points) and the 1982 Patriots (118.6 points) having more than the current haul of 117.5 for the 2018 Browns.

Heading into the 2017 draft (at this time last year), the Browns were sitting 96.7 draft points, but through trades, finished the draft with 86.9 draft points in total, which was the most in the “Modern” period (since 1993) until this year’s haul.

Sashi Brown’s analytical approach to the NFL draft netted the Browns back-to-back seasons of the most draft capital in the “Modern” period.  

...unprecedented draft commodity dominance

--------------------------------------------------------------

 
@MikeBCSN

Every year I see a good chunk of Browns fans say " there is no sure fire QB in this draft" then like clockwork they spend that whole season complaining that they didn't draft that year's hot rookie QB.

 
Since John Dorsey entered the NFL in 1991 as a scout with the Packers (Highsmith and Wolf have same org pedigree)...here are the RBs picked by the organizations he has worked for....so 27 drafts 16 RBs picked By RD

1st - NONE

2nd - 1

3rd - 3

4th - 3

5th - 4

6th - 2

7th - 3

1:18 PM - 5 Mar 2018 - Nathan Zegura via Twitter
While historically true, I believe the above is not entirely accurate of the situation during the drafts that were analyzed.

Point #1: Did these teams every have 2 of the top 4 picks in a draft where there was a RB identified as being an “elite” talent?

Point #2: Was there a need for a RB to be drafted for that team?  Did they have a solid incumbent in place making the drafting of a RB a “nice to have” and not a “necessity”?

Point #3: How many times did these teams pass on a RB when it was a need for the company?

From my understanding, the philosophy that Dorsey came from was to identify talent and grow them into the mold of the player they would be replacing down the road.  These teams didn’t draft for necessity, but more long-term strategy.  With that in mind, taking a player later in the draft who may fit the team’s mold but need some refinement makes more sense than using a top pick (1st or 2nd rnd).  In most cases, there was an incumbent RB already in place and an immediate replacement was not needed, so the draft capital was used to fill immediate holes rather than spend on BPA.

2013 Draft – There were no top ranked RBs listed for the first round.  KC traded up and didn’t have a 2nd Rnd pick – 4 RBs were chosen (L.Bell, M.Ball, E.Lacy, C.Michael).  KC nabbed the 5th RB at the end of the 3rd Rnd (K.Davis).  KC had a solid incumbent with Jamaal Charles.  He was in the man through 2014.

2014 Draft – There were no top ranked RBs listed for the first round.  KC had a late rnd pick (1.23) and took the DE (Dee Ford).  They didn’t have a 2nd rnd pick. Jamaal Charles was still the man in 2014.

2015 Draft – KC picked 1.18 in this draft.  By this point Gurley and M.Gordon were selected and off the board.  The next highest ranked RB was Yeldon, who was selected at 1.36 by Jax.  KC opted to take the CB (Marcus Peters) which was the highest need of the team for this draft.  KC had Charles, West, and Davis for this season. Injuries hit the team, so all three had a role to play this season.

2016 Draft – KC didn’t have a 1st rnd pick.  They did have an early 2nd rnd pick (2.6), but chose a DT (Chris Jones).  Derrick Henry went a few picks later.

Just looking at these four draft scenarios, I would argue that Dorsey didn’t draft a RB early because:

1.       He didn’t have an early draft pick to use

2.       A top ranked RB wasn’t available at the time of his pick

3.       A top ranked RB wasn’t a top need for his team

CLE is in a prime position where they have 2 top 4 picks in this draft.  It is unique company.  There are no trends or historical trends that can point to how any GM would react in this situation.  CLE has two top 4 picks and needs both a QB and a RB, among other needs.  What they do in FA will lead to what they may do in the Draft.  It can be argued that a RB is as much of a need as a QB.  I’m not making that argument, but I would argue that CLE could use a top ranked RB as much as they could use a top ranked DB or DE.  All three players are athletic “freaks” and great talents.  In this case, what is needed more?  Offense or Defense?  Can the DB situation be cleared up in FA?  Possibly.  What about DE? Maybe.  But there aren’t many options for RB in FA.  That leads me to believe that Dorsey may use one of his top picks on an elite player that this team could really use on offense, without having to worry about getting that franchise QB.  He is in a unique position to address both without losing any draft capital – which is a situation he has never been in before.

 
seriously, RB is so devalued right now, while the QB position has never been more important.  

i really can’t wrap my head around taking a RB top 4, much less BEFORE a QB.  

i’m leaning towards the safety with the second pick, personally. 

 
How well are the Cleveland Browns set up for this draft?

How about the best in modern NFL history.

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2018/who-should-own-the-2018-nfl-draft

...the Cleveland Browns should absolutely own the 2018 NFL draft 

See diagram >> 117.5 draft points is 162% above the NFL average,

Bill Barnwell performed analysis of the most draft points in the NFL since the 1970 merger.  He broke the historical draft classes into two periods:  the “Classic” period from 1970-1992, and the “Modern” period from 1993-2017.

How well did Sashi Brown’s analytical front office approach set up this Browns team for success in the 2018 draft?

The 2018 Browns have the most draft capital of any team in the modern era, which dates back to 1993, and

the 2018 Browns have the third most draft capital of all time (dating back to 1970), with only the 1991 Cowboys (132.2 points) and the 1982 Patriots (118.6 points) having more than the current haul of 117.5 for the 2018 Browns.

Heading into the 2017 draft (at this time last year), the Browns were sitting 96.7 draft points, but through trades, finished the draft with 86.9 draft points in total, which was the most in the “Modern” period (since 1993) until this year’s haul.

Sashi Brown’s analytical approach to the NFL draft netted the Browns back-to-back seasons of the most draft capital in the “Modern” period.  

...unprecedented draft commodity dominance

--------------------------------------------------------------
Those 1982 Patriots drafted 1 hall of Fame player and only 1 other player that made a Pro Bowl  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/1982_draft.htm

The 1991 Cowboys drafted  3 Pro Bowl players, no Hall Of Famers, 5 of 18 players that were multi year starters.  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/dal/1991_draft.htm

 
Those 1982 Patriots drafted 1 hall of Fame player and only 1 other player that made a Pro Bowl  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/1982_draft.htm

The 1991 Cowboys drafted  3 Pro Bowl players, no Hall Of Famers, 5 of 18 players that were multi year starters.  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/dal/1991_draft.htm
Very encouraging considering:

New England used that 1982 draft to build a foundation of the team that played in a Super Bowl three years after that draft.

1985 New England Patriots W/L 11-5 Playoffs:

  • Lost Super Bowl 10-46 vs. Chicago Bears
Dallas used that 1991 draft to build a foundation that played in and won three Super Bowls over the next four years.

1992 Dallas Cowboys 13-3 Playoffs:

  • Won Super Bowl 52-17 vs. Buffalo Bills
1993 Dallas Cowboys Playoffs:

  • Won Super Bowl 30-13 vs. Buffalo Bills
1995 Dallas Cowboys Playoffs:

  • Won Super Bowl 27-17 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers



 
If you want to settle for your #3 QB to draft a RB, cool.  I like your logic better
This creates a dilemma.  We fans differ in our opinions about how to rank them.  So do the popular "experts".  Your response kinda says that the GMs, the REAL pros, do not -- that there is for the most part, a single #1 choice followed by the same #2 choice, mostly.  If they are sure, then it wouldn't make sense to take the second best guy unless the whole class was mediocre.  

This is what you base your argument on & it makes sense.  Other have suggested that the GMs don't all agree or that the difference between them is negligible.  This may also be true -- that they will surely be ranked, but it might be as close as 1aaaa, 1aaab, 1aaac, with the determining factor being height, competition, or hand-size, who knows.  

I guess the bottom line is... we really don't know and we have to trust that they do.  Funny thing is, if the QB & RB rankings were switched (ie. one standout QB & four competing RBs) , there would be zero doubt as to #1.

 
This creates a dilemma.  We fans differ in our opinions about how to rank them.  So do the popular "experts".  Your response kinda says that the GMs, the REAL pros, do not -- that there is for the most part, a single #1 choice followed by the same #2 choice, mostly.  If they are sure, then it wouldn't make sense to take the second best guy unless the whole class was mediocre.  

This is what you base your argument on & it makes sense.  Other have suggested that the GMs don't all agree or that the difference between them is negligible.  This may also be true -- that they will surely be ranked, but it might be as close as 1aaaa, 1aaab, 1aaac, with the determining factor being height, competition, or hand-size, who knows.  

I guess the bottom line is... we really don't know and we have to trust that they do.  Funny thing is, if the QB & RB rankings were switched (ie. one standout QB & four competing RBs) , there would be zero doubt as to #1.
Well, yeah, cause the importance of the QB position blows the importance of the RB position out of the water, proven year in and year out.  

Is it possible that if we draft Barkley at 1 that we still get our top ranked QB at 4?  Sure.  Is it possible the front office has three QBs ranked so closely that they are willing to risk getting that #3 rated guy at pick 4 so that they can draft a RB they love?  Sure, but that is incredibly unlikely.  

With as much as these guys are vetting these players, the chances they don't care which QB they get are just preposterous.  

What is more likely, that their top rated QB will be available at 4, or that Barkley will be available at 4 (if they draft a QB at 1)?  I don't even care what the answer to that question is.  If you plan to draft a QB, you take YOUR GUY at pick 1.  

If they take Barkley at 1 and then a QB at 4, even if they do happen to LUCKILY get their top rated guy at 4, that shows incredibly poor judgement.  For one, it shows poor judgement overvaluing the RB position by using the #1 overall pick on a RB, especially in what looks like a good RB class.  Also shows poor judgement taking a wait and see approach on which QB happens to fall to you rather than using your own expertise to draft the guy you think is the best, and shows they are not only overvaluing the RB position but drastically undervaluing the QB position at the same time. 

I can only hope that "Barkley is in play" for them so that they somehow get the Giants or Colts to trade up to draft Barkley, ideally the Giants.  If it's the Colts, they better damn well be sure the Giants wouldnt be drafting the QB they plan to take at 3, and I really don't even like doing that since other teams could move up. 

Bottom line, if they plan to draft a QB at 1 or 4, it HAS to be at 1 or it has to be at 2 knowing the Giants would take Barkley, though I really dont know how they can "know" that, so to me it has to be at 1.

Again, this is only if they plan to draft a QB high.

 
If you want to settle for your #3 QB to draft a RB, cool.  I like your logic better
Who is Cleveland’s #3? Is it the same as the other two teams? If the difference between their 1 and 3 significant or do they see them relatively close?    The truth is, unless we know the plan of all teams, it’s hard to call a plan silly or stupid. You make it sound like there is a Manning or Brady in the draft. 

 
all good.  

after years of being on here, i’ve learned to not take offense to things people write, it’s too difficult to read inflection.  

and i often don’t communicate well myself.  
Sometimes my sarcasm meter just doesn't work real well. This was one of those times.

 
it seems the two points of contention in the current conversation are

1.  relative positional value.  (QB>>RB)

2.  potential to have a group of players (specifically QBs) ranked so closely together that a GM would not “care” which one they get.  

while i personally find 1 questionable, certainly others seem to feel otherwise. 

i’m much less certain i’ve ever observed evidence of 2.  it certainly feels like a FF mindset vs. real football to me.  

are there some observed examples of 2 ever having happened?  (at the top of the draft, i’m sure it’s happened plenty with round 2 and lower “speculative” type picks.  

 
Well, yeah, cause the importance of the QB position blows the importance of the RB position out of the water, proven year in and year out.  

Is it possible that if we draft Barkley at 1 that we still get our top ranked QB at 4?  Sure.  Is it possible the front office has three QBs ranked so closely that they are willing to risk getting that #3 rated guy at pick 4 so that they can draft a RB they love?  Sure, but that is incredibly unlikely.  

With as much as these guys are vetting these players, the chances they don't care which QB they get are just preposterous.  

What is more likely, that their top rated QB will be available at 4, or that Barkley will be available at 4 (if they draft a QB at 1)?  I don't even care what the answer to that question is.  If you plan to draft a QB, you take YOUR GUY at pick 1.  

If they take Barkley at 1 and then a QB at 4, even if they do happen to LUCKILY get their top rated guy at 4, that shows incredibly poor judgement.  For one, it shows poor judgement overvaluing the RB position by using the #1 overall pick on a RB, especially in what looks like a good RB class.  Also shows poor judgement taking a wait and see approach on which QB happens to fall to you rather than using your own expertise to draft the guy you think is the best, and shows they are not only overvaluing the RB position but drastically undervaluing the QB position at the same time. 

I can only hope that "Barkley is in play" for them so that they somehow get the Giants or Colts to trade up to draft Barkley, ideally the Giants.  If it's the Colts, they better damn well be sure the Giants wouldnt be drafting the QB they plan to take at 3, and I really don't even like doing that since other teams could move up. 

Bottom line, if they plan to draft a QB at 1 or 4, it HAS to be at 1 or it has to be at 2 knowing the Giants would take Barkley, though I really dont know how they can "know" that, so to me it has to be at 1.

Again, this is only if they plan to draft a QB high.
You know, with each of them having distinctive, defining qualities & flaws, that is most likely true.  It'll come down to the brain trust's weighing of each. 

 
Imagine mini brees (mayfield) having a top 3 wr (gordon) and a top 3 rb (barkley)

that'd be sweet. very sweet.

ps: Gordon is #1, but I didn't wanna have some of you negative nancies getting on my case.

 
If you want to settle for your #3 QB to draft a RB, cool.  I like your logic better
To me the idea of drafting Barkley is predicated on snagging Foles, Keenum, or Cousins to be a franchise QB. And then take a QB at 4, sell it, take someone else, all options. I would think people would rather have Foles or Keenum than any of these rookies. 

 
To me the idea of drafting Barkley is predicated on snagging Foles, Keenum, or Cousins to be a franchise QB. And then take a QB at 4, sell it, take someone else, all options. I would think people would rather have Foles or Keenum than any of these rookies. 
Ummm, why?

 
Who is Cleveland’s #3? Is it the same as the other two teams? If the difference between their 1 and 3 significant or do they see them relatively close?    The truth is, unless we know the plan of all teams, it’s hard to call a plan silly or stupid. You make it sound like there is a Manning or Brady in the draft. 
Actually no.  NOT knowing the plan of the other teams is what makes taking the QB at 4 a silly/stupid move.  

 
I have also said this before.  Drafting a QB at 1 is putting a rather insane amount of value on a RB. 

Is Barkley worth more than what we could get trading that pick?  We could stay in the top 5 or 6 and pick up an early 2nd and future 1st.  

 
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People also seem to be discounting some of the other RBs in the draft who will probably be available to us in a trade up from the 2nd round, or maybe just take in the 2nd without trading up.  

So do we take OUR QB at 1, a player like Chubb/Fitzpatrick (maybe even still Barkely) at 4, and a good RB prospect in the 2nd

or

do we take a RB at 1, maybe our 2nd or 3rd rated QB at 4, and something else in the 2nd when the value seems like it might be weighted towards RB at those picks?

Barkley at 1 to me seems like semi-poor value, losing out on the top QB, and not taking advantage of this RB class.  

 
I dont need to know anyones plans to know it's insanity to risk having to settle for your #3 QB just to draft a RB.  Just bad

 
i hate to do this, but Trent Richardson says “hi”
Interesting tidbit on TRich. Remember how Jim Brown said he wasn't interested in an ordinary TRich?

We'll Jim Brown is fully on the Barkley train.  Could he possibly know something about that certain position? He spoke positively about Barkley and wouldn't be surprised if CLE picked him first

From the linked article:

"I listen to this jabber-jabber about 'running backs don't count anymore,' and, 'they're passé,' " Hall of Fame running back Jim Brown said by phone Sunday. "Can you really say a running back is not a first-line player when you have two minutes left in a ballgame and you have a running back who can run the clock out? He's invaluable. If you get a great running back, that's a fantastic asset to your offense, there's no doubt about it."

Brown, who played for Cleveland from 1957-65, was the NFL's most valuable player three times, and is considered by many the game's greatest player. He said he has no special insight about who the Browns will take first overall, but that it wouldn't surprise him if it were Barkley.

 
If Barkley is on the zeke/gurley level (and No doubt he is imo - I have him a bit below gurley out of college, but higher than zeke), he is 100% worth the #1 pick.
Here go back to things being guaranteed.  He's not guaranteed.  Even if he WAS guaranteed, which again he is not, a guaranteed top RB isn't close to the worth of a top QB.  Not close at all.  

Take the damn QB you want that you think will be the best.

Again, said it before, but will bet ANYTHING we do not draft a QB at 4 if we use pick 1 on a non-QB

 
This is a moment like when the Trailblazers picked Sam Bowie instead of Michael Jordan. To miss out on Barkley would be a crime. I'd be shocked if he slipped past the Giants at 2. 

Chances of Barkley being a generational talent >>> chances of "your QB" at 1 being even close to as good as Foles or Keenum.

 
This is a moment like when the Trailblazers picked Sam Bowie instead of Michael Jordan. To miss out on Barkley would be a crime. I'd be shocked if he slipped past the Giants at 2. 

Chances of Barkley being a generational talent >>> chances of "your QB" at 1 being even close to as good as Foles or Keenum.
I suppose I will just go ahead and disagree with that.

 
apparently you don't know what "if" means, cuz you're too busy flexing in this thread.
There are a dozen positions where "if" the guy is a superstar he is worth the #1 pick, just an FYI.

But only one position where "if" a guy is a superstar he is worth a lot more than both picks 1 and 4.

 
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it seems the two points of contention in the current conversation are

1.  relative positional value.  (QB>>RB)

2.  potential to have a group of players (specifically QBs) ranked so closely together that a GM would not “care” which one they get.  

while i personally find 1 questionable, certainly others seem to feel otherwise. 

i’m much less certain i’ve ever observed evidence of 2.  it certainly feels like a FF mindset vs. real football to me.  

are there some observed examples of 2 ever having happened?  (at the top of the draft, i’m sure it’s happened plenty with round 2 and lower “speculative” type picks.  
Two years ago the Eagles slid into #2 to take the scraps of Wentz/Goff.

On the flip side, last year the Bears traded up to draft Trubrisky rather than staying pat and taking Watson.

 
Penn State RB Saquon Barkley did not rule out the possibility that he will retest some athletic events during the school pro day on March 20.

"I'm not satisfied with some of my numbers," said Barkley, who did not participate in the three-cone drill or the broad jump but otherwise absolutely dominated at the NFL Scouting Combine. We're all about Barkley's perfectionist attitude, but there's no real upside to testing again -- or even testing just on the three-cone drill and/or broad jump. He's already in play for the No. 1 overall selection and has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he's one of the top athletes in the class.

Source: Sporting News

Mar 7 - 5:55 PM
Watch him run a 4.3 at his pro-day and the Browns draft the worst of the three QBs at spot one and Barkley and Chubb go 2 and 3.

 
This is a moment like when the Trailblazers picked Sam Bowie instead of Michael Jordan. To miss out on Barkley would be a crime. I'd be shocked if he slipped past the Giants at 2. 

Chances of Barkley being a generational talent >>> chances of "your QB" at 1 being even close to as good as Foles or Keenum.
I couldn't disagree more with this. Foles and Keenum might not even be good. Both could easily have just played the best football they will ever play. I think a fair over/under on QB's better than Foles/Keenum going forward in this draft is 3, and I might take the over.

 
Two years ago the Eagles slid into #2 to take the scraps of Wentz/Goff.

On the flip side, last year the Bears traded up to draft Trubrisky rather than staying pat and taking Watson.
Was it taking the scraps? Everyone knew Rams were going Goff, and everyone knew Eagles were getting Wentz.

I wouldn't call Trubisky v. Watson over yet. This time a year ago, most would have preferred Prescott over Wentz, and everyone had Prescott over Goff. A lot can change with young players, especially at QB.

 
This is a moment like when the Trailblazers picked Sam Bowie instead of Michael Jordan. To miss out on Barkley would be a crime. I'd be shocked if he slipped past the Giants at 2. 

Chances of Barkley being a generational talent >>> chances of "your QB" at 1 being even close to as good as Foles or Keenum.
You know Foles and Keenum are awful right? This thread is hillairious. They’ll both be backups soon enough.

 
If I'm the Browns, I am thinking I am going to get the top 2 players on my board. 

The draft isn't going to go anything like the current mocks.  That's not a very hot take, but I think the Browns need to assume the QBs are all going be bunched up at the top of the draft.  By draft day, every team that needs a QB is gonna have a guy they wanna go get.  I would love the place a prop bet that QBs go 1-2-3.  

Chubb would have to be the move.  Chubb isn't an all-time DE prospect, but Garrett is.  Making Chubb your DE2, your second-best pass rusher, could be insane, and years before it gets too expensive.  

I'm hoping  they fall in love with Lamar Jackson, and trade down from 1. 

 

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