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wadegarrett

**** CLEVELAND BROWNS THREAD ****

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20 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

If it takes him a few weeks to come up to game speed then his legs would still be fresh for the post season and I am not shy about saying we WILL BE IN THE PLAYOFFS THIS SEASON..

Yeah, I would think by week 11 or 12 he should be into the full swing of things, which to me makes it even less likely we actually trade Duke unless we had some other RB up our sleeve we wanted.  

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Just now, ghostguy123 said:

Yeah, I would think by week 11 or 12 he should be into the full swing of things, which to me makes it even less likely we actually trade Duke unless we had some other RB up our sleeve we wanted.  

Exactly man.  I have no idea why we'd want to trade Duke.  I don't know why he wasn't used more last year.  He's a great weapon in the redzone, he picks up the blitz, he's got the best hands of any of our RBs who won't be suspended for 8 games this year.  

Keep him and if some team suffers an injury and wants to overpay then take advantage of a panicked market.  

I see no need to trade Duke Johnson right now unless Dorsey has something cooking with a trade where Duke is part of the deal.

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10 minutes ago, The Man With No Name said:

Sure, cap space is good --- for this year.

But only 4 teams have less available in 2020. 

The draft picks are very valuable.

Part of that is because so many of our guys are under contract vs the rest of the league.

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9 hours ago, Peak said:

I think Dorsey is in that "win now" mode.  I wouldn't be surprised if he traded away the rest of the draft right now.  There's rumors of Eric Berry being medically cleared to return and that he was in the building yesterday.  If he can play at 85% of what he used to do, that would work out well for now.  There's also talk of Tre Boston who played with Wilks in AZ.  Another solid player.  Further rumors of trading Duke or Ogbah and picks to DEN for Miller.  The rumor mill keeps going now that OBJ is in CLE.  I think once that trade went through, Dorsey realized the iron was hot and it was time to strike. 

Wait what?  Who Miller?

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6 hours ago, Peak said:

He was placed on the Commissioner's Exempt List when all of this came out.  I forget how long he was listed there before KC cut him (I think it was 4 weeks).  But that essentially was the player being suspended from play.  I don't know if Hunt would have to appeal the 8 game suspension to get those 4 included, or not.  I have no idea how that works.  But if there is no appeal by Hunt, which is what is being reported, then I would assume that those 4 games do not count and Hunt won't see the field until week 9.

No it's not, not by a long shot.  Players are paid while on Exempt List and those games do not count toward suspensions. 

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Hmnnn.  This is interesting.

Been looking over the background and timelines of the ODJ deal and this is what has been revealed.

Jay Glazer said the Giants were going to deal ODJ all along.  His (Glazer) track record is impeccable so from his POV the Giants were going to make a deal no matter what.

The Giants 'reportedly' were asking for a 'minimum' of two first-round draft picks and obviously no one was offering so Gettleman was left in talks with Dorsey and were stalled over a period of days.

This is where the timeline comes into play.

Dorsey gave Gettleman his final offer and a 24 hour timeline.

Dorsey THEN signed WR Breshard Perriman indicating he was going to walk away from the table.

Gettleman caved at that point and cobbled together a deal for much less than two first-round picks. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------

We still need an OLB and Justin Houston is out there but his price might be high.  

If Duke gets dealt it would not surprise me if it were for an OLB.

Edited by Bracie Smathers

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15 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

If Duke gets dealt it would not surprise me if it were for an OLB.

People are talking about trading him for a 5 or a 6 & wondering why they would do it.  I think you're right about moving him for a player.  It's a different perspective altogether.

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16 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

 

Gettleman caved at that point and cobbled together a deal for much less than two first-round picks. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------

 

How is this deal considered "much less" than two 1st round picks?

Pick 17 alone can ALMOST be considered the value of two late 1sts, then add in  a 3rd, and Peppers who was a 1st rounder 2 years ago who played well last year.

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1 minute ago, daveR said:

People are talking about trading him for a 5 or a 6 & wondering why they would do it.  I think you're right about moving him for a player.  It's a different perspective altogether.

If we were gonna deal Duke for a player, we should just deal a pick for a player.

Unless they have something up their sleeve at the RB position deal Duke makes no sense

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35 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

If we were gonna deal Duke for a player, we should just deal a pick for a player.

Unless they have something up their sleeve at the RB position deal Duke makes no sense

Not if the potential buyer is interested in Duke and has a starting olb available. They may not be interested I'm trading that same player for a pick. Takes two to tango. 

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2 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

How is this deal considered "much less" than two 1st round picks?

Pick 17 alone can ALMOST be considered the value of two late 1sts, then add in  a 3rd, and Peppers who was a 1st rounder 2 years ago who played well last year.

Would you trade a 1st round pick for Peppers?  

Would the majority of NFL GMs trade a 1st round pick in this draft for Peppers?

Considering Antonio Brown was dealt for a 3rd and 5th, it is highly unlikely that he'd fetch the same amount even with two years left on his rookie contract because he plays one of the most fungible positions (box SS who isn't strong in coverage) that is easy to replace.  

Dorsey was willing to part with him rather than a future 1st for a reason.

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58 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Would you trade a 1st round pick for Peppers?  

Would the majority of NFL GMs trade a 1st round pick in this draft for Peppers?

Considering Antonio Brown was dealt for a 3rd and 5th, it is highly unlikely that he'd fetch the same amount even with two years left on his rookie contract because he plays one of the most fungible positions (box SS who isn't strong in coverage) that is easy to replace.  

Dorsey was willing to part with him rather than a future 1st for a reason.

Since it's a slow day...  Where would Peppers be drafted if he were available this year, given that we know he is a competent NFL safety?  I'd say no lower than the 3rd, maybe the 2nd.  So, I agree with GG here.  A 1 and two 3s isn't "MUCH less" (ie a ####load less) than two 1s.

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58 minutes ago, daveR said:

Since it's a slow day...  Where would Peppers be drafted if he were available this year, given that we know he is a competent NFL safety?  I'd say no lower than the 3rd, maybe the 2nd.  So, I agree with GG here.  A 1 and two 3s isn't "MUCH less" (ie a ####load less) than two 1s.

He'd be a first rounder with two more years of control than he currently has. 

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2 hours ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Would you trade a 1st round pick for Peppers?  

Would the majority of NFL GMs trade a 1st round pick in this draft for Peppers?

Considering Antonio Brown was dealt for a 3rd and 5th, it is highly unlikely that he'd fetch the same amount even with two years left on his rookie contract because he plays one of the most fungible positions (box SS who isn't strong in coverage) that is easy to replace.  

Dorsey was willing to part with him rather than a future 1st for a reason.

Dude, the difference between pick 17 and pick 32, plus pick 95, plus Peppers is absolutely worth a late first.

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4 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

Not if the potential buyer is interested in Duke and has a starting olb available. They may not be interested I'm trading that same player for a pick. Takes two to tango. 

Right but it seems like maybe they wanna trade him just to trade him.  I hope not

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24 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Right but it seems like maybe they wanna trade him just to trade him.  I hope not

Based on what?

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26 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Dude, the difference between pick 17 and pick 32, plus pick 95, plus Peppers is absolutely worth a late first.

The gap between 1 and 32 is what a future 1st is and that future value was not traded. 

You also have it wrong.  Peppers plus pick #132 (we gave up the 3rd round pick we got from NE in the Danny Shelton deal) is what we gave up instead of a future 1st.

You can put the future 1st at a lower value of 17 to 32 but even that gap is worth more than pick #132 and Peppers which is why Dorsey did not deal the future 1st and instead offered a late 3rd and Peppers.

Peppers has a lower value today just like Danny Shelton had a lower value last year when Dorsey traded him for a future 3rd round pick which is probably what Peppers value is, a 3rd round pick.  Two 3rd round picks do not equal a future 1st round pick even a low 1st round pick at the 17-32 range you guesstimate.

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1 hour ago, Bracie Smathers said:

The gap between 1 and 32 is what a future 1st is and that future value was not traded. 

You also have it wrong.  Peppers plus pick #132 (we gave up the 3rd round pick we got from NE in the Danny Shelton deal) is what we gave up instead of a future 1st.

You can put the future 1st at a lower value of 17 to 32 but even that gap is worth more than pick #132 and Peppers which is why Dorsey did not deal the future 1st and instead offered a late 3rd and Peppers.

Peppers has a lower value today just like Danny Shelton had a lower value last year when Dorsey traded him for a future 3rd round pick which is probably what Peppers value is, a 3rd round pick.  Two 3rd round picks do not equal a future 1st round pick even a low 1st round pick at the 17-32 range you guesstimate.

So much error in this post

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Seems to me the best time to trade Duke is at the trade deadline or next offseason.  Showcase his talents while Hunt is out.  Not sure I get all the chatter about dealing him now unless someone is overpaying and that normally is not how it works for a player like him.  Dorsey could ship him out (maybe Duke has quietly asked to be traded), then draft a RB and sign a vet, but that seems unnecessary if Duke is cool.

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i wouldn’t be surprised if Duke wanted out at this point.  

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So who is still out there that we want?  Can donkey Kong suh come at any sort of bargain for a year or two?  

Safety, Berry and then draft one or two?

 

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11 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

So who is still out there that we want?  Can donkey Kong suh come at any sort of bargain for a year or two?  

Safety, Berry and then draft one or two?

 

Here you go....from Spotrac.  Of those listed, I'd be interested in:

LB: Houston, Perry, Marshall, Brown

SS: Berry, Boston, Crypien

CB: Claiborne, Dennard, Scandrick, Breeland

Brandon Marshall	ILB	29	DEN
Zach Brown	ILB	29	WAS

Justin Houston	OLB	30	KC
Clay Matthews	OLB	33	GB
Nick Perry	OLB	29	GB
Derrick Morgan	OLB	33	TEN
Cassius Marsh	OLB	27	SF
Vincent Rey	OLB	31	CIN

Eric Berry		SS	30	KC
Tre Boston		SS	29	ARI
John Cyprien	SS	29	TEN
Jahleel Addae	SS	29	LAC
Kurt Coleman	SS	31	NO

Brent Grimes	CB	36	TB
Morris Claiborne	CB	29	NYJ
Rashaan Melvin	CB	29	OAK
Nevin Lawson	CB	28	DET
Tramaine Brock	CB	31	DEN
Kayvon Webster	CB	28	HOU
Darqueze Dennard	CB	27	CIN
Orlando Scandrick	CB	32	KC
Coty Sensabaugh	CB	30	PIT
Leon Hall	CB	34	OAK
Davon House	CB	30	GB
Sam Shields	CB	31	LAR
Shareece Wright	CB	32	HOU
Bashaud Breeland	CB	27	GB

 

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On 3/16/2019 at 6:12 PM, ghostguy123 said:

Right but it seems like maybe they wanna trade him just to trade him.  I hope not

I do not, for one second, believe that John Dorsey trades anything or anybody just to trade him. There is a purpose behind everything he's done so far, I don't see this situation being any different.

And knowing that Hunt is out for 8 weeks makes it very easy to approach Duke, tell him he has 8 weeks to showcase his talents and Dorsey will try to move him someplace he can contend.

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On 3/16/2019 at 6:12 PM, ghostguy123 said:

Right but it seems like maybe they wanna trade him just to trade him.  I hope not

Well, I think maybe the fans do, or the sports talkers see an "extra" player, so they are jumping to the "likely to be traded"  idea.  If anyone actually heard Dorsey say this, or even allude to it, I'd be shocked.

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it always makes me laugh when I hear fans say stuff like “Oh they signed player x, so player y is expendable.” 

BS they need to start building depth on this team if they truly want to compete.  

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Report: Browns don't have 15 prospects with first-round grades in 2019 

Quote

 

...NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein dropped the knowledge nugget.

“I had heard that the Browns considered there to be 15 players that are first round players in this year’s draft,” Zierlein explained. “That sounds about right. About 15 guys who are first round picks. Analytics is always about quantifying value so, for them, that 17th pick, they considered that a second round player, generally speaking. In the Browns’ mind, they considered they were giving up a second-round player and not a first round player. That makes even more sense right now,”

 

Browns follow Eagles/Rams blueprint 

Quote

 

..."You have to have high-level talent to win in the NFL," a Browns executive told me. "When you focus exclusively on a draft-and-develop strategy, it can breed complacency because guys are secure in their roles and the established pecking order.

"If you want to remain competitive, you need to bring in blue-chip players and let them raise your level of play."

Again, a crucial part of this strategy -- aggressively accumulating established difference-makers -- is not having the massive cap hit under center. 

 

 

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I would bet my life they did not view pick 17 as a 2nd rounder, mainly because of the astronomically small chance that one of their top 15 would not be available at 17, not to mention the relative ease to move up a couple spots at that point in the draft.

Edited by ghostguy123
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1 hour ago, ghostguy123 said:

I would bet my life they did not view pick 17 as a 2nd rounder, mainly because of the astronomically small chance that one of their top 15 would not be available at 17, not to mention the relative ease to move up a couple spots at that point in the draft.

they viewed pick 17 as a decent WR that has about a 5% chance of matching OBJ's worst season to date

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18 hours ago, Soulfly3 said:

they viewed pick 17 as a decent WR that has about a 5% chance of matching OBJ's worst season to date

They might have only 15 first round  grades and some of them probably were for positions like QB or split-TE that they would not select.  The top blue-chip players will be off the board before #17 and like you said any WR has about a fifty-fifty shot to make it let alone turn into a top-five impact WR like OBJ.

I can imagine their board has guys like, Dremont Jones, Dexter Lawrence, Jeffery Simmons, and Jerry Tillery ranked with 2nd round grades with the guy who was the top consensus pick for the Browns in most mocks with the 17th pick when we had it, Christian Wilkins.  

I remember when the Cowboys board accidentally got leaked in a photo in the 2016 draft and they only had 16 first round grades.  They widened the number of picks up to 24 for the second round but for the first round grades they were much more exclusive which makes sense so it makes a lot of sense the Browns only have 15 first round grades and the player they anticipate dropping to the 17th pick would have a 2nd round grade.

Edited by Bracie Smathers

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On 3/22/2019 at 11:51 AM, Bracie Smathers said:

I can imagine their board has guys like, Dremont Jones, Dexter Lawrence, Jeffery Simmons, and Jerry Tillery ranked with 2nd round grades

Nate Ulrich‏ @ByNateUlrich

#Browns GM John Dorsey passionately defended Mississippi State defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and spoke as if he believes Simmons has been rehabilitated since he repeatedly hit a woman as a high school senior. Dorsey said he will meet with Simmons prior to the draft.

12:53 PM - 25 Mar 2019

--------------------------------------

Have no clue what direction we'll go in the 2nd round but last year Dorsey did not use his picks in the 2nd round to address glaring holes.  He had veteran starters in front of Austin Corbett and Nick Chubb but took talent over need.

Not sure he will fall to our second round pick but if he does i wouldn't cross off his name.

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33 minutes ago, daveR said:

If Jamie Collins got no offers, would you want him back as a back-up? 

good question. 

is this before or after the draft?

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10 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

Cost?

My guess is it'd take decent $, but a short contract.  Surely not superstar money.

 

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10 hours ago, amnesiac said:

good question. 

is this before or after the draft?

Hmmm.  After, I assume.

 

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5 minutes ago, daveR said:

Hmmm.  After, I assume.

 

sure.  he seemed to underperform, but i never heard anything about him being a bad teammate.  

he’d be good for depth at the right price.  

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1 hour ago, daveR said:

My guess is it'd take decent $, but a short contract.  Surely not superstar money.

 

Then no.

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1 minute ago, daveR said:

2 yrs at $2M per? 

Collins isn't signing that.  It may not even be above the vet minimum on a per year basis - haven't seen this year's #'s.  If he's signing anything near the vet minimum it's a one year.  And this certainly wouldn't qualify as 'decent money.'

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3 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Collins isn't signing that.  It may not even be above the vet minimum on a per year basis - haven't seen this year's #'s.  If he's signing anything near the vet minimum it's a one year.  And this certainly wouldn't qualify as 'decent money.'

OK.  This is the sort of thing I had in mind.  I doubt I'd go as high as $5M per.  

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Cap concentration of how much money is devoted to stars on a team shows how concentrated a team's salary cap is to a few top stars.  

The Browns have the 2nd lowest cap concentration in the league but have significantly more players being paid at higher levels than any other team.

We do things differently from other teams in terms of how we spread around our salary cap.

2019 Salary Cap Info and Concentration Index by CHASE STUART on MARCH 23, 2019

...  Another interesting team is Cleveland. The Browns are similar to Buffalo, and have spread their salary cap dollars around: their concentration index is just 4.2%, the second lowest in the league. But Cleveland also has spent the most 2019 salary cap dollars on its top 51 players, at a whopping $192M! Think about what that means: the Browns are paying a ton of money to their players in the aggregate, but spreading it around a lot. That must mean that Cleveland is paying a lot of people good money, and well, that’s exactly what’s happening. The Browns are paying 14 players at least $6.6M in 2019 cap dollars. No other team has more than 11 such players.

The graph below shows the results of today’s post. The X-Axis shows the 2019 salary cap dollars each team has spent on its top 51 players (no dead money is included). The Y-Axis shows the concentration index for each team for these 51 players. As you can see, the Giants (highly concentrated) are at the top of the chart, the Bills are at the bottom, the Browns are at the far right (lots of $$ spent), and the Dolphins (little $$ spent) are at the far left.  GRAPH OF CAP CONCENTRATION INDEX

What stands out to you? I’ll note that the Vikings have a bit of a “stars and duds” approach, too, while also spending a ton of money. They are in the upper right corner of the chart, which might be a good place to be? Then again, which approach do you prefer: Minnesota’s or Cleveland’s?

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We are actually over the cap but have carried forward enough money and have dead cap hits on Beckham and others currently on other rosters.  That is going to catch up to us next year but the take away from the above is that we currently are over-paying too many non-stars more than average salaries.  

So, no we are not going to re-up Collins for a 'fair' value.  If we signed him or anyone right now I think we'd be looking for bargains.

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4 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

We are actually over the cap but have carried forward enough money and have dead cap hits on Beckham and others currently on other rosters.  That is going to catch up to us next year but the take away from the above is that we currently are over-paying too many non-stars more than average salaries.  

So, no we are not going to re-up Collins for a 'fair' value.  If we signed him or anyone right now I think we'd be looking for bargains.

Re last point - agreed.  I'm sure agents of back 7 players are on standby.  They know who the Browns want and what they're willing to pay.  It's just a matter of them calling Dorsey and saying they're ready to sign.  I bet Duke and Ogbah are also still on the block, but only in exchange for a starter at one of those positions - preferably one that's expiring this year.

Re the bolded - as far as being active in free agency 11 1/2 months from now, yes.  But for context in bringing the band back together?  I doubt it.  I think Randall and Schobert are priorities and get re-upped this summer.  Once that happens the only starters that are expiring are Robinson and Tretter.  There are several highly paid players with > 2:1 cap:dead money ratios...

Vernon 15.5:0

Landry 14.55:4.5

Kirksey 9.95:2.4

Bitonio 9:0

Carrie 8.15:1.8

Hubbard 7.3:2.4

...so flexibility will be there if the decision is made to re-up one or both OL - or others.  I think our day two picks next month will tip our hand on where Dorsey thinks we'll need reinforcements.  

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3 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Re last point - agreed.  I'm sure agents of back 7 players are on standby.  They know who the Browns want and what they're willing to pay.  It's just a matter of them calling Dorsey and saying they're ready to sign.  I bet Duke and Ogbah are also still on the block, but only in exchange for a starter at one of those positions - preferably one that's expiring this year.

Re the bolded - as far as being active in free agency 11 1/2 months from now, yes.  But for context in bringing the band back together?  I doubt it.  I think Randall and Schobert are priorities and get re-upped this summer.  Once that happens the only starters that are expiring are Robinson and Tretter.  There are several highly paid players with > 2:1 cap:dead money ratios...

Vernon 15.5:0

Landry 14.55:4.5

Kirksey 9.95:2.4

Bitonio 9:0

Carrie 8.15:1.8

Hubbard 7.3:2.4

...so flexibility will be there if the decision is made to re-up one or both OL - or others.  I think our day two picks next month will tip our hand on where Dorsey thinks we'll need reinforcements.  

Good stuff Mac.:thumbup:

Not sure if I have Dorsey figured out yet.

Last year in the first round he struck like a surgeon and filled dire needs but in the second round he had established vets with high salaries (too high salaries as it turned out since he dealt both of them away in trades) but took guys like Austin Corbett and Nick Chubb and we've seen the 'inexpensive' return on Chubb and hopefully will see the same on Corbett.

I don't know which way Dorsey goes this year on the second day.  He's been talking up and defending DT Jeffrey Simmons and he confirmed that we met with him.

------------------------------------------------------------

Jeffery Simmons meets with teams    Wed Mar 27, 07:48 PM

Mississippi State DT Jeffery Simmons (knee) said he met with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns 

---------------------------------------------------------

With Ogun and Shel Richardson we 'appear' solid at DT but Richardson is our big high priced FA ticket this year.  Dorsey 'seemed' to be looking down the road last year when he took Corbett at the top of the 2nd round.  I donno but it seems like we have a real interest in Simmons even if he's not the pick.

If Dorsey is out to surgically strike at a dire need then look no further than this chart that shows S as our #1 need.  https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D2SC_dAWwAEvu9Y.png:large

LB is the next biggest need but we don't know what sort of D Wilks is going to run.  

I've heard rumors of a 5-2 base with a S/LB ALA the sort of D that Todd Bowles created in Arizona where Wilks was the HC last year.  

Safety might be the biggest need and if Dorsey knows of 'someone' who can fill a critical role in Wilks-D then that might be where he strikes in FA but I doubt we can find that particular type of player in the 2nd round and/or expect him to come in and immediately contribute like Baker or Denzel did last year.

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