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***Official 2018 Baltimore Orioles Thread*** Pitching Can’t Get Any Worse (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter avoiding injuries
- Start date
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I was at the game last Thursday, you're welcome (they always win when I go).
We went to a game last year. I was majorly bummed that they removed the no-scalp zone. That was an awesome way to buy tickets.
The_Man
Footballguy
I was checking some stats. After last night's game, the Orioles' team ERA is 2.94, 4th lowest in MLB and 2nd lowest in the AL.
After last year's complete disaster, is it possible the Orioles have at least decent pitching? Hamel, a career mediocre pitcher, has been awesome. Chen, a complete unknown, looks like a quality major league pitcher. Arrietta has been up and down. Matusz is pitching better and definately improving. And Hunter has been ok. Zach Britton may be ready to pitch sometime in June.
After last year's complete disaster, is it possible the Orioles have at least decent pitching? Hamel, a career mediocre pitcher, has been awesome. Chen, a complete unknown, looks like a quality major league pitcher. Arrietta has been up and down. Matusz is pitching better and definately improving. And Hunter has been ok. Zach Britton may be ready to pitch sometime in June.
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The_Man
Footballguy
This is fun while it lasts but I think it's pretty unsustainable. Jones has been raking, but has only 3 walks in 100 plate appearances and his percentage of balls in play that become hits has been really high. There is a gaping void at 3B, offensively and defensively.
On the upside, Davis is looking like a legit big-leaguer. Though I worry that his swing is still full of holes and that the league will begin to figure him out when he goes around again. Markakis is going to heat up, Wieters is a star, and Hardy will hit more too.
I think the bullpen is pretty legit. Relievers vary so much from year to year, and it looks like most of their guys (other than Gregg, who is done) are on a good year. Lindstrom, Strop, Ayala, and Johnson are all legitimate good pitchers. So if the starting pitching can just go 5 or 6 quality innings, the Orioles will be in a lot of games. And so far the bullpen hasn't been getting burned up.
I still think Arrieta is the best starter, even though Hammel has been amazing. Has he really figured things out, or is it a matter of getting out of Colorado and the AL being unfamiliar with him? Matusz is encouraging. I like that Chen throws strikes but once the league sees him a couple times, I think he's a 4th/5th starter. And Hunter is eh. Would love to see Britton come back and fight for that 5th spot. Tillman has been very mediocre at Norfolk, and Bundy is probably not ticketed for the majors until late 2013/early 2014 after spending much of next year at Double A.
All of that being said, I'm starting to think they might have a shot at .500 because the bullpen looks really great. But the offense is going to be so sporadic that it's going to be a season full of tight, low-scoring games.
On the upside, Davis is looking like a legit big-leaguer. Though I worry that his swing is still full of holes and that the league will begin to figure him out when he goes around again. Markakis is going to heat up, Wieters is a star, and Hardy will hit more too.
I think the bullpen is pretty legit. Relievers vary so much from year to year, and it looks like most of their guys (other than Gregg, who is done) are on a good year. Lindstrom, Strop, Ayala, and Johnson are all legitimate good pitchers. So if the starting pitching can just go 5 or 6 quality innings, the Orioles will be in a lot of games. And so far the bullpen hasn't been getting burned up.
I still think Arrieta is the best starter, even though Hammel has been amazing. Has he really figured things out, or is it a matter of getting out of Colorado and the AL being unfamiliar with him? Matusz is encouraging. I like that Chen throws strikes but once the league sees him a couple times, I think he's a 4th/5th starter. And Hunter is eh. Would love to see Britton come back and fight for that 5th spot. Tillman has been very mediocre at Norfolk, and Bundy is probably not ticketed for the majors until late 2013/early 2014 after spending much of next year at Double A.
All of that being said, I'm starting to think they might have a shot at .500 because the bullpen looks really great. But the offense is going to be so sporadic that it's going to be a season full of tight, low-scoring games.
The biggest concern is the defense at 3rd base. Reynolds and Betemit are both bad. But Reynolds is a known hitter and will eventually hit his HRs.
Obviously the offense will be hot and cold. A lot of their success has been due to hitting homeruns, but they can't keep hitting them at this pace.
If the starting pitching holds up, they can get to 0.500. It was the same story last year and everyone of the young pitchers collapsed. I suspect there were issues with the pitching coach, who resigned mid-season, even though he was a long time Showalter friend.
I would be shocked to see Bundy before May 2014. He will spend his 20+ days in the minors before he is called up. Even though he is tearing it up at low A Delmarva, he is only pitching 4 innings at a time. A 19 year old is not going to speed through the minors in 1 year without any challenges.
Obviously the offense will be hot and cold. A lot of their success has been due to hitting homeruns, but they can't keep hitting them at this pace.
If the starting pitching holds up, they can get to 0.500. It was the same story last year and everyone of the young pitchers collapsed. I suspect there were issues with the pitching coach, who resigned mid-season, even though he was a long time Showalter friend.
I would be shocked to see Bundy before May 2014. He will spend his 20+ days in the minors before he is called up. Even though he is tearing it up at low A Delmarva, he is only pitching 4 innings at a time. A 19 year old is not going to speed through the minors in 1 year without any challenges.
That's a winning formula, as long as Gregg does not pitch.In one of Matusz's starts, he pitched decently and gave up 2 earned runs in 5 innings. But he ran into trouble in the 6th. He left the game with two outs, a 3rd run in, and runners on 1st and 2nd. Gregg came in and gave up, I think, 5 consecutive hits. So Matusz's stat line ended up being 5 2/3 innings, 5 earned runs allowed. It looks a lot better if Kevin Gregg can get one out.
avoiding injuries
Footballguy
OK, I just changed the title of the thread from 2010 to 2012. The funny part is that when I read the first post, it was about the Orioles signing Tejada again. Well, I guess they're trying for round 3 as he was signed again yesterday.
The team has looked good, but I refuse to be let down again. I don't predict a winning season or a finish outside of last place. If it happens, fantastic. But I've gotten my hopes up too high, too often to fall for it again.
I think there is a different attitude with this team. They've been fighting in games that they wouldn't have been in years past. Last night's 13 inning win in BOS is a perfect example. Hopefully the losing culture that has been instilled in these guys is starting to fade.
As it has been pointed out, the pitching is playing out of their minds. SP's and RP's (minus Gregg). I don't think it can hold up, especially at the level it has been during the first 26 games.
Go O's and Wieters is a BEAST!!
The team has looked good, but I refuse to be let down again. I don't predict a winning season or a finish outside of last place. If it happens, fantastic. But I've gotten my hopes up too high, too often to fall for it again.
I think there is a different attitude with this team. They've been fighting in games that they wouldn't have been in years past. Last night's 13 inning win in BOS is a perfect example. Hopefully the losing culture that has been instilled in these guys is starting to fade.
As it has been pointed out, the pitching is playing out of their minds. SP's and RP's (minus Gregg). I don't think it can hold up, especially at the level it has been during the first 26 games.
Go O's and Wieters is a BEAST!!
I am starting to really believe, but it is hard to do.
The pitching has been phenomenal, led by Jason Hamel, who nobody was impressed with prior to the season. Young pitchers like Arrieta and Matusz can be fun to root for, but we saw last year that youngster can really let you down too.
The other item that tempers my enthusiasm: the American League East is a ridiculously good division. If the Orioles can finish above 0.500, there is a decent chance the whole division will.
The pitching has been phenomenal, led by Jason Hamel, who nobody was impressed with prior to the season. Young pitchers like Arrieta and Matusz can be fun to root for, but we saw last year that youngster can really let you down too.
The other item that tempers my enthusiasm: the American League East is a ridiculously good division. If the Orioles can finish above 0.500, there is a decent chance the whole division will.
avoiding injuries
Footballguy
Matusz is the one guy I have little confidence in. Most people around me think it's more mental, but I just don't see TOR qualities in him. He looks like a #4 or #5, and that's hard to say considering the hopes I had for him.
I'll be curious to see how Britton looks when he comes back. He was arguably our best pitcher last year. I hope the Orioles take plenty of time with him since they seem to be doing OK for the time being.
How nice is it to see Bobbby V struggling in Boston after how he treated the Orioles the past two seasons. I hope he continues to manage them out of contention and then is fired.
I'll be curious to see how Britton looks when he comes back. He was arguably our best pitcher last year. I hope the Orioles take plenty of time with him since they seem to be doing OK for the time being.
How nice is it to see Bobbby V struggling in Boston after how he treated the Orioles the past two seasons. I hope he continues to manage them out of contention and then is fired.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Congrats fellas. Hell of a start so far. The future is bright!
Baseball is more fun when the O's are good.
Baseball is more fun when the O's are good.
Bottomfeeder Sports
Footballguy
Am I suffering from flashbacks?
Constantly good pitching?
Solid defense?
3 run home runs?
Pitchers working quickly.
Laughing bird logo.
Just as I go to post this we get the routine 6-5-3 double play.
Constantly good pitching?
Solid defense?
3 run home runs?
Pitchers working quickly.
Laughing bird logo.
Just as I go to post this we get the routine 6-5-3 double play.
Bottomfeeder Sports
Footballguy
10 games over .500.
Forgot what that felt like. Nasty schedule ahead, probably need to call up someone tomorrow to have a fresh arm in the bullpen so going to enjoy the best record in the majors for while it lasts. Whether a few hours or ...
Forgot what that felt like. Nasty schedule ahead, probably need to call up someone tomorrow to have a fresh arm in the bullpen so going to enjoy the best record in the majors for while it lasts. Whether a few hours or ...
Awesome game. Both teams ran out of pitchers. The Orioles send Chris Davis to the mound, who throws 2 shutout innings to get the win. Davis shows an 89 mph fastball and a few other pitches. Boston send Darnell McDonald (ex-Oriole) who has an 82 mph fastball and no other pitches.
Tuco
Footballguy
One of the craziest games I've ever watched. With a 3 run lead in the 17th, I couldn't believe that Buck left Davis in to pitch. I know they still won, but Buck had already spent his entire bullpen and really needed to sure up the win. He got lucky with that call. We'll see how they do against Texas when their a little thin.
Exposito may go down tomorrow so they can add another arm. Also, Hunter seems like he may be a better fit a long term relief guy than a starter. He gets tired after 4 or 5 innings each outing.
Exposito may go down tomorrow so they can add another arm. Also, Hunter seems like he may be a better fit a long term relief guy than a starter. He gets tired after 4 or 5 innings each outing.
When Davis has the tying run at the plate in the bottom of the 17th, I would have been very tempted to put a starter in to lock down the win. But they are probably already looking at a roster move to help out the bullpen. They probably couldn't make a 2nd one to bring up a spot starter. It is relentless with no days off for the next couple of weeks.Hunter has been decent, so he will get more opportunities as a starter. Zach Britton is on schedule to join the club sometime in June.
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Whoever pitches tonight will pitch until the 7th inning at least regardless of the score. They could be behind 15-3 and the starter will still be in there.
Brian Matusz pitches tonight. He is pitching better, but not the best best to get 7 quality innings.Word is that Stu Pomeranz will be called up from Norfolk to bolster the tired bullpen.
They need to have a "transformer fire" which causes a "stadium lights malfunction" and call off the game. Or maybe a freak thunderstorm right over Camden Yards at about 7:05 PM. Ooops, a rain out. Whadareyagonnado?
Tuco
Footballguy
The Hunter move really surprises me. Not as much because of his performance, but it was said that he was a big part of the clubhouse. I do like that there are no guaranteed spots, and you need to play well to keep your position.Dan Duquette negotiated an option into Paulino's contract, so he did not need to clear waivers. I guess they see good things out of Expisito.
I am pretty sure the plan is to demote Berken Friday and call up Chris Tillman. Tillman gets two starts, and then they decide between Tillman and Hunter. Zach Britton returns sometime in June.Of course, with pitchers, injuries and ineffectiveness always occur. Every team goes through 7 or 8 starters during the year.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Yes and yes.Didn't the O's start off hot last year too?That said, I think they're better than last year and the year before but they're just stuck in the wrong division.
Eephus
Footballguy
The Orioles' makeshift bullpen made the scores look worse
A 13 inning game, a 17 inning game, and then two starters not getting quality starts will do that to a bullpen. Prior to this, the pen was looking relatively decent.The Taiwanese rookie goes tonight
The_Man
Footballguy
O's started 6-1 last year, then went 6-12 (including an 8-game losing streak), followed by a 2-6 stretch, and were 14-19 on this date last season. The back of their bullpen is very solid, with most of their horses - Johnson, Strop, Lindstrom, Ayala - sitting out the last two games after the 17 innings in Boston. They should be ready to go. Hopefully Chen can keep it close for 5 or 6 innings tonight and keep them in the game until those guys come in.Bonus - I just got 4 free tickets for tonight in the second row next to the Visitor's Dugout! Now I'm really hoping it doesn't rain.
Congrats on getting ticketsI think the Oriole bullpen is for real. I think their hitting is for real (note: lots of HRs, lots of strikeouts). The big question is the starting pitching. Hamel is a career mediocre pitcher, but they say he has a new pitch. Can he suddenly tranform to a top of the rotation pitcher?Chen has looked good, but will he do as well when teams see him a second and third time? That catches up to a lot of picthers who start off well.Arietta is young and will probably have his ups and downs. That has been true so far.Matusz has pitched well in the past, and very poorly last year. We still don't know what to expect from him.Hunter has been doing ok, but giving up HRs. He is now in the minors, but we will probably see him agains in a couple of weeks. Even after performing well, this still looks like an average pitching rotation. Of course, average is a whole lot better than what we had last year.
Eephus
Footballguy
They could have used the rainout earlier in the week
A rain out really doesn't help. They are going to play a double header tomorrow.The roster is really in flux now. Yesterday, Zach Phillips called up, Jason Berken sent down.Today, Steve Tollsen is called up, Zach Phillips sent down.Jason Hammel is skipping his turn in the rotation tomorrow due to knee soreness.Tommy Hunter is gettting called up to start tomorrow for Hammel. It's a short stay at Norfolk, as Hunter is pitching on 3 days rest. Hunter can only replace someone going on the DL. Edy Chavez is most likely going on the DL.They still need a starter for Friday. Most likely Dana Eveland.
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The roster turmoil has been incredible. They now have Bill Hall, Steve Tollsen, and Xavier Avery on the active roster. Note that Brad Bergenson was moved off the 40 man roster. One of the young pitchers from a few years ago is not longer in the picture at all.After a brutal series with the Rangers, it sure feels good to take 2 out of 3 from the Rays.
As I stated earlier, the starting rotation is really the biggest question mark. Most would think the Orioles have an average starting rotation at best. If Hammel and Chen can deliver quanity starts 80% of the time, that is a very good start. They really need Arietta and Matusz to step up and deliver some quality starts. Zach Britton may be available in early June, possibly very late May.Dana Eveland looks pretty shaky. He apparently has no options, so he needs to clear waivers to be sent back to Norfolk. Maybe they need a few bad outings by him to ensure he clears waivers.The other big concern on the team is the defense at the corners, 3rd and 1st base. Reynolds and Betemit have been bad at 3rd base. Davis is not doing well at 1st base (botched double play and an error with the bases loaded last night). It's not clear that they have a solution other than hoping the current players get better. Flaherty has been getting some time at 3rd base, but he needs to hit some to get any meaningful playing time. That's a tall order for a rule 5 player.
Here's an interesting article on the Orioles. He goes through all the glimmers of hope the Orioles have provided in the past, only to fall apart later on.
He thinks the bullpen is the most over-achieving part of the team.
Also, on building a team:
He thinks the bullpen is the most over-achieving part of the team.
Also, on building a team:
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TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I'm not a big Orioles fan, but I came to this thread to see if anyone had seen that article. I usually like that writer but hated that column for two reasons:First, it's silly to think that "history" weighs on the Orioles. Yeah they usually play worse in the latter part of the season than they do at the beginning. But that's partly a function of roster changes- they trade away players for prospects and don't bother filling holes left due to injury with MLB-ready talent via trade because they're usually not in contention in the tough AL East, whereas other teams do the opposite. When you're not motivated to win in August and September, it's hard to win in August and September. If the Orioles are still in contention at the end of June there's no reason to expect history to repeat itself because they won't roster their major league club the same way. And in any event very few of the current players were around for the previous letdowns so there's no reason to draw a connection.
Second, there's absolutely no way Machado and Bundy help the 2012 Orioles. It's silly to suggest there's even a chance of it. He even points out that Machado's numbers at AA are only exceptional when you consider that he's only 19. What's he gonna do, age three years in the next two months? And as great as Bundy has been, he's been throwing 3-4 inning starts in Low A. The hitters haven't even had a chance to adjust to his stuff. Let him go through a lineup at least two times before we conclude that he'd be an asset four levels higher.
Anyway, hope your boys can keep it up this season.
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I am a life long Oriole fan. As a fan, I remember a lot of these dissapointments, so I am only cautiously optimistic.One major issue for the Orioles, they have very little depth in the farm system. So with injuries, they are hurting for replacements. Bill Hall was signed by the team in mid April and called up after maybe 15 games in the minore. Luis Exposito, same thing.
I still believe that the starting pitching is the key for Orioles. It really looks like an average at best rotation. Yet it was great at the beginning of the season, not quite as good recently. If the starting pitching falls apart, the Orioles will lose a lot of games. If they can be average, which repreents a huge improvement over last year, I think they can remain competitive (say near 0.500).
Finally, baseball is a really long season. If the Orioles can play 0.500 ball, then in August and September, go on another run 10 games over 0.500, they would have a 91 win season. That is clearly wild card contention territory. But in the long season, we know the Yankees will be in the mix at the end of the season, no matter how poorly they do between now and then. The Rays just win a lot. And the Red Sox most likely will put things together at some point. A lot will happen between now and October.
The biggest first step: the Orioles need to win at least half their games against division opponents. I think they went 5-13 and 6-12 against the Yankees and Blue Jays last year. It's hard to compete in your division when you spot your rivals that many games.
Orioles beat Kansas City 4-3 in 15 innings last night. That is their 5th consecutive extra inning win.
I used to stop watching when they went into extra innings because it took too long and they rarely won these games. Now there is an excitement because you expect good things to happen. Although 6 extra innings still takes are really long time.
I used to stop watching when they went into extra innings because it took too long and they rarely won these games. Now there is an excitement because you expect good things to happen. Although 6 extra innings still takes are really long time.
The_Man
Footballguy
I didn't find this article overly insightful. There's no question that the Orioles' bullpen has been absolutely outstanding. But there's also a lot of reason to believe that success is sustainable (as long as they don't get burned out). Relief pitchers fluctuate from season to season all the time. The Orioles have seen it when Michael Gonzalez comes here and stinks, or when Koji is great here and then struggles in Texas.
OK, this is just deceptive to try to prove his point. What's more relevant - that Ayala blew out his elbow 6 years ago, or that he had a 2.09 ERA in 52 appearances with the Yankees last season?
Again, this feels intentionally deceptive. At Coors last year, Lindstrom had a 4.23 ERA, with a 1.34 WHIP and .275 BAA. On the road he had a 1.71 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and .234 BAA. Any thought that getting out of Coors full-time might enable him to replicate those road stats for a full season?
Isn't O'Day the kind of guy that stats experts are supposed to love? I thought they valued things like "funny deliveries" if it meant they could grab a strong performer that more conventionally-minded teams would overlook. He says himself that O'Day was incredibly effective for two years in Texas before getting injured. Now healthy, is it really a surprise that he's effective again?
Again, the writer seems more hung on where a guy came from, than he pays attention to what he's doing. Strop has filthy stuff, and has been dominant late last year, all Spring and all 2012. Is it so shocking that a converted infielder could show progress at age 25?
He's converted 23 straight saves. Who didn't consider him closer material?
Discovering that this guy is a KC fan made me really happy to watch the Orioles sweep the Royals, as the bullpen gave up one run in 11 innings and the team came back in the late innings in back-to-back games.
The bullpen is legit, as long as they don't get used up. The poor corner defense, lack of starting pitching depth, and weak on-base percentage that's been getting bailed out by lots of HRs so far are my concerns.
I told Mrs. Marvelous in the past that Pedro Strop is the Orioles' version of Henry Rodriquez. Strop had me very concerned today.O's bullpen tonight, 4 shutout innings, 1 hit, 0 BBs(though they did have 2 HBPs)
From Baseball Prospectus, the Playoff Odds Report.
The expected wins is 80.5 and the odds of making the playoffs is 15.7%.
I have no idea how they calculate/guess at these figures.
The expected wins is 80.5 and the odds of making the playoffs is 15.7%.
I have no idea how they calculate/guess at these figures.
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
Any word on Reimold?
Orioles win again. I saw the end of the game which featured a broken bat home run by Chris Davis and a 7-1 force out at 3rd base. With runners on 1st and 2nd, Pittsburg hits a fly ball down the left field line. It was Betimit's ball, but he took the wrong angle and it lands fair. The left fielder, Steve Pearse, picks up the ball and fires to Pedro Strop, who is covering 3rd base to get the force out.
Recovery is going significantly slower than the Orioles had hoped. Reimold has been moved to the 60 day disabled list and still has numbness and tingling in one of his hands. The move made room for Brian Roberts on the 40 man roster.
