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WR Antonio Brown, FA (7 Viewers)

fred_1_15301 said:
Russ already has good weapons.  AB isn't suddenly taking away all of those targets.  He'll be entrenched as the # 3 and then he'll take his ball and run.   :shrug:  
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He will be a disaster if he’s the same guy he was with Pittsburg.  He hated JuJu getting the attention and how in the world is he going to handle DK Metcalf being the alpha male WR.  This will be a train wreck for the Seahawks.  If AB doesn’t get the majority share of targets/TDs, he won’t be a happy camper.

 
travdogg said:
Josh Gordon was a talented guy who had 1 big season. Antonio Brown was the best WR of a generation, and had a 6 year run about as good as anyone in history. 
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I’m not comparing the 2 players - I’m saying the hype that AB will immediately come back as a productive fantasy asset seems like the type of hype that Gordon generated every time he came back.  

 
I too think it will be Seattle (they understand how bad their D is & that they'll have to win shootouts in the postseason & if they somehow face KC in the SB they'll need 50pts. to win).

if Seattle:  high end WR3 ROS with prob 1 monster 150-3 game

 
I grabbed him in a league that allows IR for suspended players, so I was able to then free up a spot for AJ Green.  

Man, the rest of this 2015 season is gonna be LIT!

 
King of the Jungle said:
For FF Packers or Miami (both probably long shots) would be my favorite landing spots for him. Seattle could be interesting just because their defense makes it so they have to pass but as a DK owner I am being selfish and hoping they don’t sign him (but that is most likely where he ends up).
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My initial reaction was also "please no". On further reflection, it's not like Metcalf is this huge target hog. It may not be all that impactful. On AB's return in general, for those that think he's going to parachute into an offense and put up king maker numbers, I'll take the under on that.

 
King of the Jungle said:
He will go with the best quarterback of the options he has. He wants the ball and I am not sure Carson makes the cut in his mind.
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I'm not sure these two statements mesh.  While Wilson is miles ahead of Wentz, he's going to get the ball more in Philly than he would in Seattle.

I don't think Philly will have any interest though.

 
He doesn't fit the organization but the Colts sure could use him.  Their WRs aren't very good, or at the very least not very exciting.

 
I would think the sooner he signs the better.  Even if he cannot step into the building, learning the playbook ahead of suspension ending is beneficial.  Teams are conducting Zoom meetings too so he can attend.  Not sure what the hold up is.

 
steelwind said:
I would think the sooner he signs the better.  Even if he cannot step into the building, learning the playbook ahead of suspension ending is beneficial.  Teams are conducting Zoom meetings too so he can attend.  Not sure what the hold up is.
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Pretty sure teams want to wait until his suspension is officially over just in case the league tacks onto his suspension like they said they might. 

 
ATB said:
Pretty sure teams want to wait until his suspension is officially over just in case the league tacks onto his suspension like they said they might. 
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True and this looks like how it will play out.  So for fantasy the question is when can he benefit fantasy lineups?   If he signs after week 8.  He isn’t playing week 9 due to COVID protocols.  He can enter the facility to begin practice if he passes COVID tests ahead of week 10.  But that’s his first week of practice so limited role if active.  Realistically week 11 he may play 60% snaps.

Holding him would be using a bench spot for 5 weeks.  His value comes for those who are in position to make playoff push and beyond.

 
steelwind said:
True and this looks like how it will play out.  So for fantasy the question is when can he benefit fantasy lineups?   If he signs after week 8.  He isn’t playing week 9 due to COVID protocols.  He can enter the facility to begin practice if he passes COVID tests ahead of week 10.  But that’s his first week of practice so limited role if active.  Realistically week 11 he may play 60% snaps.

Holding him would be using a bench spot for 5 weeks.  His value comes for those who are in position to make playoff push and beyond.
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Personally, I grabbed him in every league I'm in just to block other owners from doing so. Even if he isn't playable until Week 11, I sure as hell don't want to be facing him down the stretch or, even worse, in the playoffs. 

I'd rather he blow up on my bench than in my opponent's lineup. 

 
steelwind said:
I would think the sooner he signs the better.  Even if he cannot step into the building, learning the playbook ahead of suspension ending is beneficial.  Teams are conducting Zoom meetings too so he can attend.  Not sure what the hold up is.
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I think he'll sign within next few days or by early next week at the latest.

In terms of the holdup I think you have to consider that tweet yesterday from Shefter was agent driven.  Translated to common speak what it really said was "SEA wants to sign AB, now would be the time to make your best offer".

steelwind said:
 But that’s his first week of practice so limited role if active.  Realistically week 11 he may play 60% snaps.
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Maybe or he could be playing in week 9 or 10 and I'd point out   he played 24 snaps his  one game in NE and was WR25 that week in a scheme many think is one of the more complex. I got a lot of bye weeks 10-11 so I'm not scared to start him on several teams those weeks, but ideally you'd want to give him a few week ramp up.

 
steelwind said:
- "“Brady is pounding on the table to bring Antonio Brown to town... I don’t think the Bucs want to do it, I don’t want them to do it”"
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Game knows game.

Remember that time Tom Brady pounded the table for months for his team to sign Josh Gordon? Yea, me neither.

 
steelwind said:
TB might be a darkhorse to sign him.  We know how Brady can influence decisions like this and they were together for a short time in NE.

95.3 WDAE - "“Brady is pounding on the table to bring Antonio Brown to town... I don’t think the Bucs want to do it, I don’t want them to do it”"

https://twitter.com/953WDAE/status/1319227371401011200?s=20
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this just two dudes speculating about what they THINK Brady MIGHT be doing? There's no inside knowledge here or even an anonymous source behind this. 

It's literally small talk. 

 
steelwind said:
As I recall, Gordon did okay when he signed with NE.  He was low end WR2.

Why would Brady want this with Evans and Godwin there?
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Because AB is one of the best WR's to ever play and while people can speculate he's lost it, layoff,etc, etc. we've not actually seen any evidence of his decline.

I don't know what Josh Gordon's fantasy stats have to do with Tom Brady not going to bat for him but they were not so great.  If you just isolate his active weeks he was WR29 weeks 4-15 in 2018 and WR63 in 6 games last year.  He played just over a full seasons worth of games with Brady, 17. He averaged 10.87 fantasy points a game. That's what I typically view as WR3/4 range but again not sure of the relevance to Gordon's fantasy output. In real life in those 17 games he got 105 target for 60/1,007/4 and that's 56/948 in a 16 game season.

Josh Gordon should be comped to AB like Barry Foster should be comped to Emmitt Smith.

 
menobrown said:
Because AB is one of the best WR's to ever play and while people can speculate he's lost it, layoff,etc, etc. we've not actually seen any evidence of his decline.

I don't know what Josh Gordon's fantasy stats have to do with Tom Brady not going to bat for him but they were not so great.  If you just isolate his active weeks he was WR29 weeks 4-15 in 2018 and WR63 in 6 games last year.  He played just over a full seasons worth of games with Brady, 17. He averaged 10.87 fantasy points a game. That's what I typically view as WR3/4 range but again not sure of the relevance to Gordon's fantasy output. In real life in those 17 games he got 105 target for 60/1,007/4 and that's 56/948 in a 16 game season.

Josh Gordon should be comped to AB like Barry Foster should be comped to Emmitt Smith.
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was Barry Foster insane?

 
In regards to Antonio Brown being compared to Josh Gordon:

AB is a generational talent who not only was gifted with incredible athleticism but also a knack for route-running like no one else. 

JG was a freak athlete with great size that gave him an ability to take the top off a defense and go up and snatch the ball at an apex no defender could reach. 

When your biggest strength as a receiver is your athleticism, you're going to fall off a cliff as you age out. But if you combine your athleticism with an unparalleled focus on perfecting your route running, you can hang around a long time. 

That's the different between AB and JG. Gordon isn't the freak athlete he once was so he's no longer a glaring mismatch for opposing cornerbacks. 

But AB still has most of his athleticism and, better yet, a gift and a focus on route-running that allows him to separate from any defender and become a wide open target for any quarterback. 

 
ATB said:
In regards to Antonio Brown being compared to Josh Gordon:

AB is a generational talent who not only was gifted with incredible athleticism but also a knack for route-running like no one else. 

JG was a freak athlete with great size that gave him an ability to take the top off a defense and go up and snatch the ball at an apex no defender could reach. 

When your biggest strength as a receiver is your athleticism, you're going to fall off a cliff as you age out. But if you combine your athleticism with an unparalleled focus on perfecting your route running, you can hang around a long time. 

That's the different between AB and JG. Gordon isn't the freak athlete he once was so he's no longer a glaring mismatch for opposing cornerbacks. 

But AB still has most of his athleticism and, better yet, a gift and a focus on route-running that allows him to separate from any defender and become a wide open target for any quarterback. 
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Also the fact Gordon abused his body for years with all kinds of drugs and alcohol I believe absolutely impacted him.

AB has a persona he puts out, but multiple players from his Steeler days say he was not a nightclub kind of guy, does not drink, do drugs, hardest worker on the team,etc, etc.

That stuff matters.

And even with respect to working out Gordon worked out a lot and had a great physique but I don't think he was always trying to optimize being in football shape as much as being in great looking shape. AB on the other hand fully pads up a few times a week, it's almost comical looking because he's got a mismatch of Raider and Steeler gear, but he's out running routes in full on pads. He's in football shape.

 
Total head case, even if he signs in Seattle, he's been away from the game for a while and he needs a lot of attention...but I understand why Seattle which has Super Bowl aspirations the way Wilson is running the offense, they just want to go all out for their QB to maximize his ability to lead them far far into the Playoffs. 

AB will have to respect Wilson, apparently Russel thinks he can use him and AB will behave. Sure, part of me wants Brown to fail but again Seattle is thinking forward and you have to tip your cap to them if they pull this off and make it work. 

 
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I have yet to hear any contract talk.  I'd be shocked if AB comes back for a prove it type of deal.  Seahawks cap space is ~3.75M

That's not going to get Mr. Big Chest out of bed.

 
zamboni said:
He’d be a great fit alongside cousin Hollywood in Baltimore. Which means it’s too good to happen.
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As a Steeler fan heavily invested in AB in fantasy I would just say that other then him not playing this year the second worst outcome was getting signed to play for the Ravens.

 
The purely statistical case against adding Antonio Brown

The non-statistical case against Antonio Brown, potential Seattle Seahawks wide receiver, is easy enough to make. Couple shots of google would give an aspiring writer all the ammunition they need.

This is not that post.

Using data only, measurables only, on-field considerations only, is there a way to say no to AB and still feel good about it? The man led the NFL in receiving touchdowns in 2018. Twice in receiving yards. He was until recently on a collision course for a gold jacket and a bust in Canton.

The answer — which is yes — lies in a closer look at targets.

A) It’s offensive malpractice to reduce targets for Seattle’s top two wide receivers.

...Counting even their rookie seasons and injured seasons, the current Seahawks have been better than the potential one was at his best. They just haven’t gotten the volume to win All-Pro honors. A familiar story, and one that is rapidly changing, but if you thought Brown was head and shoulders above TL and DK, you might have been fooled by counting stats... Antonio Brown was never better than Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf, except maybe for a spell in 2016. No reason to think he suddenly is now. I don’t want him taking any of their targets, not a single one.

B) There aren’t enough other targets to go around.

Let’s say Brown were able to vulture every toss directed to David Moore and Freddie Swain. That’s 22 balls in five games.

First of all, that’s not a very significant amount. On 22 targets, 2018-level AB would supply you with a 14-170-2 line. And get this — Moore and Swain have so far produced beyond that anyway. They’ve combined for 17 grabs, totaling 270 yards and three scores. They’ve been good for 12.3 yards per target. They’ve been a mini-WR1 already, just on their own. They’ve been better than what you could reasonably expect from Brown, or any All-Pro...

C) ...He hasn’t played in two years.

...Just the age curve alone means it would make little sense to spend anything — money, time, game plan adjustments — on inserting a new receiver who’s not in game shape and isn’t likely to be the All-Pro he was for 2014 through 2017...
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I agree with the author. Easy pass IMO.

 
Deamon said:
I'm not sure these two statements mesh.  While Wilson is miles ahead of Wentz, he's going to get the ball more in Philly than he would in Seattle.

I don't think Philly will have any interest though.
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Maybe. You have to be a decent quarterback in order to get him the ball. I am just basing this off his Nick Foles comment, I think he is going to be selective in which quarterback he plays with if he has the option. In his brain I am sure he still thinks he is the best receiver in the league and probably doesn’t rationalize having to share targets with anyone.

 
ATB said:
Personally, I grabbed him in every league I'm in just to block other owners from doing so. Even if he isn't playable until Week 11, I sure as hell don't want to be facing him down the stretch or, even worse, in the playoffs. 

I'd rather he blow up on my bench than in my opponent's lineup. 
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Ditto... a combo blocker / lottery ticket.

 
I’m thinking if he actually signs with somebody that will be the peak of his trade value this season before he actually starts to play. 
 

We will see. 

 
simsarge said:
Quote from the article :"...in just one game during the 2019 season. He racked up four receptions for 56 yards and a touchdown.

In just one game, Brown showed he’s still one of the NFL’s best wide receivers. "

:eek:
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Signed: menobrown 

 
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