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Antonio Brown - Official Thread

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1 hour ago, Deamon said:

How much FAAB would you throw at him?

I am struggling with this as well in a league i desperately need a WR

 

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20 minutes ago, Wrigley said:

Guy is a head case, nothing has changed 

 

Ill pass 

 

 

It does seem a little weird that everyone suddenly went from 'he's not going to end up anywhere' to 'he's a wr1". 

I see a similar situation to Gordon here.  WR3 numbers with high ceiling/low floor.  Probably decent flex in your league that someone will prob over pay for based on the hype.  I grabbed him in 2 leagues so I hope I'm wrong but I just see the path to WR1 status for this guy to be very difficult.

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For FF Packers or Miami (both probably long shots) would be my favorite landing spots for him. Seattle could be interesting just because their defense makes it so they have to pass but as a DK owner I am being selfish and hoping they don’t sign him (but that is most likely where he ends up).

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On 10/9/2020 at 7:33 PM, menobrown said:

I'm not comfortable going against what Schefter is saying but would point out that just last week, and it may have been recorded a few days before I heard it, Josina Anderson was a guest on a podcast and she was asked if she expects AB to play this year and she said yes  and that demand for his services was growing.

There is one  problematic issue that might scare a few teams off regarding his civil trial but before I get into that let me first say it's a misconception that anything negative that comes out of that trial will result in an increased suspension. Now it could, but the misconception  a lot of people have is that the NFL factored none of the sexual assault case into AB's 8 game suspension. That's not true. The NFL did investigate that case and what they said was if any "new information"  arises they would suspend him further meaning new information they did not discover in their investigation.

Now that potentially problematic issue I mentioned is the timing of AB's civil trial which is December 15th.  If damaging info came out of that trial the NFL would likely immediately suspend him further or at minimum put him on the commissioner exempt list while they decide how much longer to suspend him. That would possibly knock out AB after week 14.

So if we can assume any team that wanted to bring in AB would be a team that believes it has a shot to go on a SB run you got to think decision makers on those teams would be leery about bringing  in AB, dealing with that distraction and spending a few weeks working him into the system only to potentially lose him heading into week 15. I think most teams would just rather not deal with that even if they knew for sure AB would conduct himself professionally.

I think he's already tried to push the date back of the trial but that's not been working. He could of course settle at anytime and make all of this go away, and he's come close to doing that a few times but I believe he feels he did nothing wrong, has already lost a lot of money over this and has to much pride to settle now.

My conclusion:

While I hate to go against Shefter whose word is as strong as it gets I  still think he plays and I'll take it a step further and say I think a team might have already made assurances to him that if he's stays out of trouble up till around time his suspension is up they would offer him a contract. My reasoning for that is simple minded enough and it's that he took the 8 game suspension with no fight at all  and since that time he's remained very level headed on social media. I believe if no team was showing him interest because of the looming civil trial and threat for further suspension calm and accepting AB is not what we'd be seeing.

 

 

 

Good post.

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2 hours ago, travdogg said:

I was thinking fantasy numbers, but I'd be curious people's thoughts on both.

My gut says NE for Brown himself, if it was Belichick/McDaniels and not just Brady who liked him. Solid team structure and locker room. Not bad for fantasy either as the path to #1 WR isn't tough. Otherwise maybe the Ravens.

Best for fantasy, might be Philly. Easy path to #1, and QB is throwing all game. Green Bay would be great, but he seems like a player they'd avoid.

 

I would be surprised if NE signed him. He cost them like $10 million to play in one game, did not tell the team about his sexual assault suit, threatened the woman after he signed, and dissed Kraft about his massage case on his way out the door. 

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This reeks of Josh Gordon-esque comeback hype.  I think it’ll be a miracle he reaches WR3 heights by season’s end.  

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1 hour ago, King of the Jungle said:

For FF Packers or Miami (both probably long shots) would be my favorite landing spots for him. Seattle could be interesting just because their defense makes it so they have to pass but as a DK owner I am being selfish and hoping they don’t sign him (but that is most likely where he ends up).

As a Russ owner i love the sound of Seattle.  But yea it would downgrade Lockett and DK some imo

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:lmao:

Top 15 WR? You guys are dreaming. He's 32 years old, hasn't played in the NFL in a year and a half, and is a head case. I'll be surprised if he ever gets to WR3 territory.

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11 minutes ago, nysfl2 said:

:lmao:

Top 15 WR? You guys are dreaming. He's 32 years old, hasn't played in the NFL in a year and a half, and is a head case. I'll be surprised if he ever gets to WR3 territory.

He stepped right in last year

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Feels like it is a done deal and he is going to Seattle.  It will give him a good chunk of the regular season and all of the post season to rehabilitate image.  He will instantly be the best tactician Russ has the moment he steps on the field.  It is not a stretch to think he will lead the team in targets once entrenched, which will not take long.  

 

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There is no way in hell he's a top 15 WR if he goes to Seattle.  

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6 minutes ago, NCPanthersFan said:

Feels like it is a done deal and he is going to Seattle.  It will give him a good chunk of the regular season and all of the post season to rehabilitate image.  He will instantly be the best tactician Russ has the moment he steps on the field.  It is not a stretch to think he will lead the team in targets once entrenched, which will not take long.  

 

Russ already has good weapons.  AB isn't suddenly taking away all of those targets.  He'll be entrenched as the # 3 and then he'll take his ball and run.  :shrug: 

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DK and Lockett are so elite that he'll be wide open I guess since they draw so much coverage

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It’s a head scratcher for me that Seattle would be interested in AB.  They are undefeated, offense is clicking, they should be focusing on improving the defense.

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1 minute ago, Kevrunner said:

It’s a head scratcher for me that Seattle would be interested in AB.  They are undefeated, offense is clicking, they should be focusing on improving the defense.

Totally agree. Total head scratcher why they’d want the elite offensive talent.  I’m sure there plenty of elite defensive players that they could sign as free agents who are on the market because of disciplinary reasons.  

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52 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

Totally agree. Total head scratcher why they’d want the elite offensive talent.  I’m sure there plenty of elite defensive players that they could sign as free agents who are on the market because of disciplinary reasons.  

:lmao:   Yeah it's worked out well for the past teams that have dipped their feet in the water with him.  

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Eagles seems like the best FF spot and maybe real world NFL as well.

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5 minutes ago, baymen said:

Eagles seems like the best FF spot and maybe real world NFL as well.

Perhaps the Eagles have the biggest need but if I'm AB I'd prefer to let Russ cook than Carson, especially with all the injuries.

One of my leagues had an end of the bench spot that I decided was worth taking a flyer on Antonio.  As a 6th WR, I can sit on him unless the injury/Corona bug comes back with a vengeance.

Cheap lottery ticket.

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Should I drop Parker and ride this train?   I am stacked at WR and prob would never use Parker.  I already have DK tho

Edited by steelwind

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Just now, DropKick said:

Perhaps the Eagles have the biggest need but if I'm AB I'd prefer to let Russ cook than Carson, especially with all the injuries.

One of my leagues had an end of the bench spot that I decided was worth taking a flyer on Antonio.  As a 6th WR, I can sit on him unless the injury/Corona bug comes back with a vengeance.

Cheap lottery ticket.

I am going with need here for sure and AB may get the best result with Philly JMHO.

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2 hours ago, fred_1_15301 said:

Russ already has good weapons.  AB isn't suddenly taking away all of those targets.  He'll be entrenched as the # 3 and then he'll take his ball and run.  :shrug: 

He will be a disaster if he’s the same guy he was with Pittsburg.  He hated JuJu getting the attention and how in the world is he going to handle DK Metcalf being the alpha male WR.  This will be a train wreck for the Seahawks.  If AB doesn’t get the majority share of targets/TDs, he won’t be a happy camper.

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3 hours ago, ninogaggi said:

This reeks of Josh Gordon-esque comeback hype.  I think it’ll be a miracle he reaches WR3 heights by season’s end.  

Josh Gordon was a talented guy who had 1 big season. Antonio Brown was the best WR of a generation, and had a 6 year run about as good as anyone in history. 

 

 

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56 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Josh Gordon was a talented guy who had 1 big season. Antonio Brown was the best WR of a generation, and had a 6 year run about as good as anyone in history. 

 

 

I’m not comparing the 2 players - I’m saying the hype that AB will immediately come back as a productive fantasy asset seems like the type of hype that Gordon generated every time he came back.  

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4 hours ago, nysfl2 said:

:lmao:

Top 15 WR? You guys are dreaming. He's 32 years old, hasn't played in the NFL in a year and a half, and is a head case. I'll be surprised if he ever gets to WR3 territory.

 

4 hours ago, fred_1_15301 said:

There is no way in hell he's a top 15 WR if he goes to Seattle.  

Ya I don't understand his call on that at all.  I'm assuming he grabbed him in a few leagues.

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8 hours ago, baymen said:

Eagles seems like the best FF spot and maybe real world NFL as well.

He will go with the best quarterback of the options he has. He wants the ball and I am not sure Carson makes the cut in his mind.

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I too think it will be Seattle (they understand how bad their D is & that they'll have to win shootouts in the postseason & if they somehow face KC in the SB they'll need 50pts. to win).

 

if Seattle:  high end WR3 ROS with prob 1 monster 150-3 game

 

 

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I picked him up in two leagues and plan on starting him this week. I just benched my other two receivers so he gets ALL the looks.

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I grabbed him in a league that allows IR for suspended players, so I was able to then free up a spot for AJ Green.  

Man, the rest of this 2015 season is gonna be LIT!

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14 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

For FF Packers or Miami (both probably long shots) would be my favorite landing spots for him. Seattle could be interesting just because their defense makes it so they have to pass but as a DK owner I am being selfish and hoping they don’t sign him (but that is most likely where he ends up).

My initial reaction was also "please no". On further reflection, it's not like Metcalf is this huge target hog. It may not be all that impactful. On AB's return in general, for those that think he's going to parachute into an offense and put up king maker numbers, I'll take the under on that.

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4 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

He will go with the best quarterback of the options he has. He wants the ball and I am not sure Carson makes the cut in his mind.

I'm not sure these two statements mesh.  While Wilson is miles ahead of Wentz, he's going to get the ball more in Philly than he would in Seattle.

I don't think Philly will have any interest though.

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He doesn't fit the organization but the Colts sure could use him.  Their WRs aren't very good, or at the very least not very exciting.

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18 minutes ago, steelwind said:

Question - can AB sign right now or does he have to wait until suspension is officially over?

Now.

ETA he can't practice until his suspension is over.

Edited by menobrown

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I would think the sooner he signs the better.  Even if he cannot step into the building, learning the playbook ahead of suspension ending is beneficial.  Teams are conducting Zoom meetings too so he can attend.  Not sure what the hold up is.

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1 minute ago, steelwind said:

I would think the sooner he signs the better.  Even if he cannot step into the building, learning the playbook ahead of suspension ending is beneficial.  Teams are conducting Zoom meetings too so he can attend.  Not sure what the hold up is.

Pretty sure teams want to wait until his suspension is officially over just in case the league tacks onto his suspension like they said they might. 

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1 minute ago, ATB said:

Pretty sure teams want to wait until his suspension is officially over just in case the league tacks onto his suspension like they said they might. 

True and this looks like how it will play out.  So for fantasy the question is when can he benefit fantasy lineups?   If he signs after week 8.  He isn’t playing week 9 due to COVID protocols.  He can enter the facility to begin practice if he passes COVID tests ahead of week 10.  But that’s his first week of practice so limited role if active.  Realistically week 11 he may play 60% snaps.

Holding him would be using a bench spot for 5 weeks.  His value comes for those who are in position to make playoff push and beyond.

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5 minutes ago, steelwind said:

True and this looks like how it will play out.  So for fantasy the question is when can he benefit fantasy lineups?   If he signs after week 8.  He isn’t playing week 9 due to COVID protocols.  He can enter the facility to begin practice if he passes COVID tests ahead of week 10.  But that’s his first week of practice so limited role if active.  Realistically week 11 he may play 60% snaps.

Holding him would be using a bench spot for 5 weeks.  His value comes for those who are in position to make playoff push and beyond.

Personally, I grabbed him in every league I'm in just to block other owners from doing so. Even if he isn't playable until Week 11, I sure as hell don't want to be facing him down the stretch or, even worse, in the playoffs. 

I'd rather he blow up on my bench than in my opponent's lineup. 

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TB might be a darkhorse to sign him.  We know how Brady can influence decisions like this and they were together for a short time in NE.

95.3 WDAE - "“Brady is pounding on the table to bring Antonio Brown to town... I don’t think the Bucs want to do it, I don’t want them to do it”"

https://twitter.com/953WDAE/status/1319227371401011200?s=20

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11 minutes ago, steelwind said:

I would think the sooner he signs the better.  Even if he cannot step into the building, learning the playbook ahead of suspension ending is beneficial.  Teams are conducting Zoom meetings too so he can attend.  Not sure what the hold up is.

I think he'll sign within next few days or by early next week at the latest.

In terms of the holdup I think you have to consider that tweet yesterday from Shefter was agent driven.  Translated to common speak what it really said was "SEA wants to sign AB, now would be the time to make your best offer".

 

6 minutes ago, steelwind said:

 But that’s his first week of practice so limited role if active.  Realistically week 11 he may play 60% snaps.

 

Maybe or he could be playing in week 9 or 10 and I'd point out   he played 24 snaps his  one game in NE and was WR25 that week in a scheme many think is one of the more complex. I got a lot of bye weeks 10-11 so I'm not scared to start him on several teams those weeks, but ideally you'd want to give him a few week ramp up.

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2 minutes ago, steelwind said:

- "“Brady is pounding on the table to bring Antonio Brown to town... I don’t think the Bucs want to do it, I don’t want them to do it”"

 

Game knows game.

Remember that time Tom Brady pounded the table for months for his team to sign Josh Gordon? Yea, me neither.

 

 

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1 minute ago, menobrown said:

Game knows game.

Remember that time Tom Brady pounded the table for months for his team to sign Josh Gordon? Yea, me neither.

 

 

As I recall, Gordon did okay when he signed with NE.  He was low end WR2.

Why would Brady want this with Evans and Godwin there?

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22 minutes ago, steelwind said:

TB might be a darkhorse to sign him.  We know how Brady can influence decisions like this and they were together for a short time in NE.

95.3 WDAE - "“Brady is pounding on the table to bring Antonio Brown to town... I don’t think the Bucs want to do it, I don’t want them to do it”"

https://twitter.com/953WDAE/status/1319227371401011200?s=20

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this just two dudes speculating about what they THINK Brady MIGHT be doing? There's no inside knowledge here or even an anonymous source behind this. 

It's literally small talk. 

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1 minute ago, steelwind said:

As I recall, Gordon did okay when he signed with NE.  He was low end WR2.

Why would Brady want this with Evans and Godwin there?

Because AB is one of the best WR's to ever play and while people can speculate he's lost it, layoff,etc, etc. we've not actually seen any evidence of his decline.

I don't know what Josh Gordon's fantasy stats have to do with Tom Brady not going to bat for him but they were not so great.  If you just isolate his active weeks he was WR29 weeks 4-15 in 2018 and WR63 in 6 games last year.  He played just over a full seasons worth of games with Brady, 17. He averaged 10.87 fantasy points a game. That's what I typically view as WR3/4 range but again not sure of the relevance to Gordon's fantasy output. In real life in those 17 games he got 105 target for 60/1,007/4 and that's 56/948 in a 16 game season.

Josh Gordon should be comped to AB like Barry Foster should be comped to Emmitt Smith.

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32 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Because AB is one of the best WR's to ever play and while people can speculate he's lost it, layoff,etc, etc. we've not actually seen any evidence of his decline.

I don't know what Josh Gordon's fantasy stats have to do with Tom Brady not going to bat for him but they were not so great.  If you just isolate his active weeks he was WR29 weeks 4-15 in 2018 and WR63 in 6 games last year.  He played just over a full seasons worth of games with Brady, 17. He averaged 10.87 fantasy points a game. That's what I typically view as WR3/4 range but again not sure of the relevance to Gordon's fantasy output. In real life in those 17 games he got 105 target for 60/1,007/4 and that's 56/948 in a 16 game season.

Josh Gordon should be comped to AB like Barry Foster should be comped to Emmitt Smith.

was Barry Foster insane?

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In regards to Antonio Brown being compared to Josh Gordon:

AB is a generational talent who not only was gifted with incredible athleticism but also a knack for route-running like no one else. 

JG was a freak athlete with great size that gave him an ability to take the top off a defense and go up and snatch the ball at an apex no defender could reach. 

When your biggest strength as a receiver is your athleticism, you're going to fall off a cliff as you age out. But if you combine your athleticism with an unparalleled focus on perfecting your route running, you can hang around a long time. 

That's the different between AB and JG. Gordon isn't the freak athlete he once was so he's no longer a glaring mismatch for opposing cornerbacks. 

But AB still has most of his athleticism and, better yet, a gift and a focus on route-running that allows him to separate from any defender and become a wide open target for any quarterback. 

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1 minute ago, ATB said:

In regards to Antonio Brown being compared to Josh Gordon:

AB is a generational talent who not only was gifted with incredible athleticism but also a knack for route-running like no one else. 

JG was a freak athlete with great size that gave him an ability to take the top off a defense and go up and snatch the ball at an apex no defender could reach. 

When your biggest strength as a receiver is your athleticism, you're going to fall off a cliff as you age out. But if you combine your athleticism with an unparalleled focus on perfecting your route running, you can hang around a long time. 

That's the different between AB and JG. Gordon isn't the freak athlete he once was so he's no longer a glaring mismatch for opposing cornerbacks. 

But AB still has most of his athleticism and, better yet, a gift and a focus on route-running that allows him to separate from any defender and become a wide open target for any quarterback. 

Also the fact Gordon abused his body for years with all kinds of drugs and alcohol I believe absolutely impacted him.

AB has a persona he puts out, but multiple players from his Steeler days say he was not a nightclub kind of guy, does not drink, do drugs, hardest worker on the team,etc, etc.

That stuff matters.

And even with respect to working out Gordon worked out a lot and had a great physique but I don't think he was always trying to optimize being in football shape as much as being in great looking shape. AB on the other hand fully pads up a few times a week, it's almost comical looking because he's got a mismatch of Raider and Steeler gear, but he's out running routes in full on pads. He's in football shape.

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