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Antonio Brown - Official Thread

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12 minutes ago, Willie Neslon said:

They didn't take this big a risk to bring him there to be an auxiliary piece. I expect him to be the alpha out of the gate. I don't buy the "too many mouths to feed" argument either. Every team has too many mouths to feed on their roster. Most end up not getting fed which will happen here. Either Evans or Godwin, or maybe both, are going to take a severe hit to their fantasy value. If Brown is even 70% of what he was 2 years ago, he's going to get his. Game script poses a much bigger threat to Brown's numbers than Evans or Godwin do. This team has a solid defense and could be looking at a bunch of games with big 2nd half leads. As good as Ronald Jones has been, he may get even better with the addition of Brown. That being said, when Brady had dominant teams in New England he liked to keep his foot on the gas for as long as possible so maybe the game script angle is overblown. Either way, I expect Brown to hit the ground running in 2 weeks and not look back. Don't discount that week of experience Brown and Brady had last season. They built obvious chemistry in a short time and it's only going to grow.

I somewhat agree with this. It's not like Evans and Goodwin have been force fed by Brady, so who knows where the targets will go.

On the other hand, Brady has not had to air out the ball that much. At the end of the day, Brady is going to hit whoever is open and if that's Brown, he'll get his. The thing is all those guys can get open, so I don't see any of them consistently getting double digit targets. Could very well vary by week.

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This is going to be a three headed monster, with no predictability on a week to week basis IMO.  

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Just now, SayWhat? said:

This is going to be a three headed monster, with no predictability on a week to week basis IMO.  

Agreed. Although assuming Brown can return week 9, that's the week I would start him because I do think he'll be featured then.

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1 hour ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Dan Graziano@DanGrazianoESPN

From the I’M JUST SAYIN’ department: Anyone projecting what the 2020 Buccaneers offense will look like with Antonio Brown on it would do well to remember what they thought the 2019 Raiders and Patriots offenses would look like with Antonio Brown on them, and how that worked out.

I don’t get the point of this tweet.  I seem to remember AB’s PPG stats on the Pats to be quite good.

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1 hour ago, Joe Bryant said:

It's a pretty fascinating signing. 

Clearly, Brady saw / sees value there. My guess is this was heavily influenced by him. 

And clearly there's upside. He'll likley be rusty but we saw him dominate just last year. Not just be good but be great. 

Tampa Bay is a vastly different environment. This was an untenable situation with Robert Kraft and his late wife's outspoken position on domestic abuse. His Spa issues didn't help. That was never going to be withstandable. 

A year later and Tampa is very different.

So assuming best case for Brown, I love it for Brady.

I don't like it for Godwin or Evans or Gronkowski or Brown that much. Simply too many mouths to consistently feed. This feels like a maddening situation each week trying to roll the dice on who will get the targets. But for Brady, it's fantastic. They were ALREADY an embarrassment of riches for receivers. This is ridiculous. 

On the downside, I probably wouldnt have made the move if I were Jason Licht. I just don't think Brown's a guy I want in the locker room. There's diva type stuff a great many WRs deal with. But this seemed way beyond that. But I also completely realize I know essentially nothing about that. I will easily defer to Brady and the other people that DO know what he's like in person. And clearly, they're in favor. 

Should be interesting. 

It certainly doesn’t HURT Brady, but their defense has been so good, and their running game has proven to be solid enough that I don’t see a huge ceiling on Brady regardless of Brown being there.  It’s not like he’s going to be forced into shootouts like Russ or Dak.

if anything he’ll continue to be very inconsistent week to week.  But yes, that playoff schedule looks great on paper.

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38 minutes ago, Ted Lange as your Bartender said:

It certainly doesn’t HURT Brady, but their defense has been so good, and their running game has proven to be solid enough that I don’t see a huge ceiling on Brady regardless of Brown being there.  It’s not like he’s going to be forced into shootouts like Russ or Dak.

if anything he’ll continue to be very inconsistent week to week.  But yes, that playoff schedule looks great on paper.

I don't see anyone remotely suggesting it could hurt Brady, do you? 

Do you think signing Brown will help Brady? If so, how much?

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1 hour ago, Joe Bryant said:

It's a pretty fascinating signing. 

Clearly, Brady saw / sees value there. My guess is this was heavily influenced by him. 

And clearly there's upside. He'll likley be rusty but we saw him dominate just last year. Not just be good but be great. 

Tampa Bay is a vastly different environment. This was an untenable situation with Robert Kraft and his late wife's outspoken position on domestic abuse. His Spa issues didn't help. That was never going to be withstandable. 

A year later and Tampa is very different.

So assuming best case for Brown, I love it for Brady.

I don't like it for Godwin or Evans or Gronkowski or Brown that much. Simply too many mouths to consistently feed. This feels like a maddening situation each week trying to roll the dice on who will get the targets. But for Brady, it's fantastic. They were ALREADY an embarrassment of riches for receivers. This is ridiculous. 

On the downside, I probably wouldnt have made the move if I were Jason Licht. I just don't think Brown's a guy I want in the locker room. There's diva type stuff a great many WRs deal with. But this seemed way beyond that. But I also completely realize I know essentially nothing about that. I will easily defer to Brady and the other people that DO know what he's like in person. And clearly, they're in favor. 

Should be interesting. 

4-56-1 in one game is dominating?   I don't disagree with much of your analysis, but saying he dominated last year seems more than a bit off.

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Please remind me: was AB in Patriot's training camp last season and was he around for the pre-season games?  

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4 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

I don't see anyone remotely suggesting it could hurt Brady, do you? 

Do you think signing Brown will help Brady? If so, how much?

1) of course not.  That being said,

2) I just don’t see it moving the needle a ton for Brady’s overall  FF prospects, just because of how the Bucs are structured as a team.  I don’t think AB in the mix turns them into a pass-first team.  And with their defense playing the way it is, outside of the Chiefs game in Week 12 (and maybe the Saints in 9 if they get everyone back) I don’t see a ton of shootouts on their schedule.

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6 minutes ago, Ghost Rider said:

4-56-1 in one game is dominating?   I don't disagree with much of your analysis, but saying he dominated last year seems more than a bit off.

I'm not going to argue over semantics. I thought he looked great when he played in the one game last year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmAkMF5URa0

That's not a very controversial analysis. 

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1 minute ago, Ted Lange as your Bartender said:

1) of course not.  That being said,

2) I just don’t see it moving the needle a ton for Brady’s overall  FF prospects, just because of how the Bucs are structured as a team.  I don’t think AB in the mix turns them into a pass-first team.  And with their defense playing the way it is, outside of the Chiefs game in Week 12 (and maybe the Saints in 9 if they get everyone back) I don’t see a ton of shootouts on their schedule.

Thanks. I agree the defense will likely limit the shootouts and that could be a factor. Should be interesting. I will disagree that it doesn't help Brady significantly if Brown can keep it together there. He's an outstanding talent on a team that's struggled pretty hard so far to keep the receivers healthy. Will be interesting to see. 

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6 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

I'm not going to argue over semantics. I thought he looked great when he played in the one game last year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmAkMF5URa0

That's not a very controversial analysis. 

That is fine, and yeah he looked good, but we must have different definitions of dominating.  But we can agree to disagree.

Edited by Ghost Rider
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Thing is, Brady hasn't had that gets open quick guy this year. Evans isn't that guy, and Godwin was supposed to be, but he's been banged up, and that wasn't his game last year. Brady has been his best with that type of WR, the Brown/Welker/Edelman type. While that is not all Brown can do, like it may have been with those guys, Brown is certainly better at that than Evans/Godwin. 

If he stays out of trouble(big if) I'd bet on Brown leading Tampa in catches the rest of the way. Not saying he'll be the #1 for fantasy points necessarily, but I'd say its at least a 33% chance. I also think Tampa might begin passing more often. I think they want to be a pass first team, that is both Brady and Arians history. I think the fact that they haven't had healthy weapons this year had contributed to why they haven't, even more than the quality of their defense. What a few weeks ago was a maybe 60% Evans, Scottie Miller and Justin Watson, is now going to be Brown, a hopefully 100% Evans, and Godwin. Could certainly that adding 8-12 pass attempts per game.

I think much like KC signing Bell, people will talk themselves into it being no big deal, look at the money, etc. I think both Bell and Brown have decent shots at taking their respective #1 jobs, and pretty quickly too, and if I owned CEH, Godwin, or Evans, I'd be pretty concerned.

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18 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Thing is, Brady hasn't had that gets open quick guy this year. Evans isn't that guy, and Godwin was supposed to be, but he's been banged up, and that wasn't his game last year. Brady has been his best with that type of WR, the Brown/Welker/Edelman type. While that is not all Brown can do, like it may have been with those guys, Brown is certainly better at that than Evans/Godwin. 

If he stays out of trouble(big if) I'd bet on Brown leading Tampa in catches the rest of the way. Not saying he'll be the #1 for fantasy points necessarily, but I'd say its at least a 33% chance. I also think Tampa might begin passing more often. I think they want to be a pass first team, that is both Brady and Arians history. I think the fact that they haven't had healthy weapons this year had contributed to why they haven't, even more than the quality of their defense. What a few weeks ago was a maybe 60% Evans, Scottie Miller and Justin Watson, is now going to be Brown, a hopefully 100% Evans, and Godwin. Could certainly that adding 8-12 pass attempts per game.

I think much like KC signing Bell, people will talk themselves into it being no big deal, look at the money, etc. I think both Bell and Brown have decent shots at taking their respective #1 jobs, and pretty quickly too, and if I owned CEH, Godwin, or Evans, I'd be pretty concerned.

Good points. 

 

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12 minutes ago, tricky92 said:

This thread sounds like guys who picked up AB vs guys who got beat to the wire.

One of the worst things on these boards is people who think your discussion on a player is biased by your ownership or lack thereof.

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2 minutes ago, menobrown said:

One of the worst things on these boards is people who think your discussion on a player is biased by your ownership or lack thereof.

So, which one are you? Haha

There's zero middle ground here.

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42 minutes ago, travdogg said:

I think much like KC signing Bell, people will talk themselves into it being no big deal, look at the money, etc. I think both Bell and Brown have decent shots at taking their respective #1 jobs, and pretty quickly too, and if I owned CEH, Godwin, or Evans, I'd be pretty concerned.

The major difference to me on Bell and AB is that Bell looks like he noticeably lost a step or two. I know the offense was bad on the Jets and it made him look even worse but he looked a step slower to me. If it turns out that Bell is the same guy as he was in 2017 then yes what you say is true but I'm not seeing that with him, still solid but not quite the same guy.

With AB while a lot of people assume he's 32 and has lost a step we've not actually seen any evidence of it.

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1 minute ago, tricky92 said:

So, which one are you? Haha

There's zero middle ground here.

I agree, feels like a sig line that syncs to one's primary league would be useful as I do think people are biased.

 

I picked up Brow last week and was hoping he'd land in Philly where'd he'd have a better chance to be the clear #1 and thus have WR2 value from the start with WR1 upside.  With TB, I think he has WR3 value today with WR2 upside.

 

As always, just my opinion.

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13 minutes ago, tricky92 said:

So, which one are you? Haha

There's zero middle ground here.

Well using the examples you gave I'd be the guy who picked up AB but the more accurate way to say it is I'm the guy who has been sitting on AB this whole time in dynasty, and have been sitting on him this whole time since any redraft league I was in drafted.  I'm in a lot of leagues and he was not available in any of them this past week, mainly because of me but not always.

Not that you care but if  you ever wanted to scroll back to my comments on him in this thread it's been consistently the same going back to when Steeler's traded him.

It's kind of like a chicken and the egg argument. I got AB on a ton of my teams because of his talent and/or opportunity cost for the talent but then people want to say I only speak in positive tones about him because I'm invested when the reality is I got invested in him because of the talent/opportunity cost.

I'm just here for discussion. I do have a few leagues were people tell me they read my posts here but this idea that people only try and talk up people they are invested or vice versa is something that has just annoyed me over the years, no offense to you or your post.  I just don't see the point in that unless you really just need positive affirmation with your decision making. Like I said, I'm just here for the discussion because I'm a fantasy and football loving fiend and can't get enough, not to hype up my players or get affirmation.

Edited by menobrown
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11 hours ago, Deamon said:

Rumour is this was in the works all season.  And with Bruce having coached him already, I'm sure he was okay with it.  Like with Gronk, this seems obvious that this was quietly happening all along.

"Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians worked with Brown while he was the offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh and previously had been critical of Brown. Arians told Schefter on his podcast in 2019 that Brown was "too much of a diva," and said as recently as March that Brown wasn't a fit on the Bucs."

 

So another example of a team bending over backwards to take a guy with serious issues/legal trouble huhn Bruce?

Edited by The Frankman

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41 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Well using the examples you gave I'd be the guy who picked up AB but the more accurate way to say it is I'm the guy who has been sitting on AB this whole time in dynasty, and have been sitting on him this whole time since any redraft league I was in drafted.  I'm in a lot of leagues and he was not available in any of them this past week, mainly because of me but not always.

Not that you care but if  you ever wanted to scroll back to my comments on him in this thread it's been consistently the same going back to when Steeler's traded him.

It's kind of like a chicken and the egg argument. I got AB on a ton of my teams because of his talent and/or opportunity cost for the talent but then people want to say I only speak in positive tones about him because I'm invested when the reality is I got invested in him because of the talent/opportunity cost.

I'm just here for discussion. I do have a few leagues were people tell me they read my posts here but this idea that people only try and talk up people they are invested or vice versa is something that has just annoyed me over the years, no offense to you or your post.  I just don't see the point in that unless you really just need positive affirmation with your decision making. Like I said, I'm just here for the discussion because I'm a fantasy and football loving fiend and can't get enough, not to hype up my players or get affirmation.

I'll say this, I did not love Brown's chances for high quality production if he would have went to Seattle... but, I'm higher on him now that he's going to Tampa. I think he should be viewed as a top 25 WR going forward, but that group will most likely cannibalize each other. Great for Brady, not so great for Godwin and Evans. I would probably try to use Brown as a trading piece leading up to his debut as I think that's where his real value will lie. Should be interesting, though.

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1 hour ago, tricky92 said:

This thread sounds like guys who picked up AB vs guys who got beat to the wire.

I’m a Bucs fan which is my only interest here. Evans is playing like a 75 year old man and Godwin is coming back from injury. If AB doesn’t go nuts he’s going to see a ton of passes. I could see them wanting to take stress of Evans and Gronk to get them ready for the playoffs. 

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Curious - since Brown's bout of legal trouble, has he done anything to publicly change his optics?  Is there any contrition coming from him?  Any sign that he's trying not to be the person who's accused of sexually assaulting his trainer or any of the other things he's accused of doing such as seeking medical help or therapy?

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11 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

Curious - since Brown's bout of legal trouble, has he done anything to publicly change his optics?  Is there any contrition coming from him?  Any sign that he's trying not to be the person who's accused of sexually assaulting his trainer or any of the other things he's accused of doing such as seeking medical help or therapy?

Well I dont think he's sexually assaulted anyone lately ..... so there's that

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1 hour ago, tricky92 said:

This thread sounds like guys who picked up AB vs guys who got beat to the wire.

I think I'm being pretty unbiased whenever I discuss a player. I'd rather be right, than just lie to myself or others.

Full disclosure, across my 4 leagues, I have Brown in 2, Godwin in 2, and Evans in 1. 

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Just curious. Is he coming off the suspension for sure,or he is eligible to come off?

Also,are there any "issues" still out there that could sideline him at any time? Pending charges? Anything like that. 

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5 hours ago, Ted Lange as your Bartender said:

I don’t get the point of this tweet.  I seem to remember AB’s PPG stats on the Pats to be quite good.

I think the point he is making is that he didn't have a lasting impact because something came up.  That's been the problem with AB is that something always comes up.  

Edited by Jail

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1 hour ago, Rubi said:

Just curious. Is he coming off the suspension for sure,or he is eligible to come off?

Also,are there any "issues" still out there that could sideline him at any time? Pending charges? Anything like that. 

I'm not positive,  but I don't think he has settled the lawsuit that alleges sexual assault.  So,  if something comes out of that he could probably get another suspension.  This should encourage him to hopefully settle it and move on before it comes back to bite him.

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17 minutes ago, Jail said:

I think the point he is making is that he didn't have a lasting impact because something came up.  That's been the problem with AB is that something always comes up.  

But everyone knows that already, so there’s no point in trying to keep everyone’s “expectations” in check. 

He’s basically getting the league minimum with some incentives.  If there’s off-field stuff That surfaces again, then they are out some prorated minimum salary game checks.  As far as on-field antics, we saw no evidence of diva behavior on the Pats (unlike the Raiders, where he probably never had interest in playing anyway).  Arians and Brady aren’t going to put up with that, and if it happens, again, he’ll be gone fast and they’ll be out some game checks.

Edited by Ted Lange as your Bartender
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Actually just read on a Steelers depot article from a few weeks ago that Brown's attorney in the Taylor lawsuit dismissed himself? Says Brown was ordered to produce text messages,  but hasn't and that's when attorney begged off the case.  

Man this guy just doesn't get it. 

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3 minutes ago, Ted Lange as your Bartender said:

But everyone knows that already, so there’s no point in trying to keep everyone’s “expectations” in check. 

He’s basically getting the league minimum with some incentives.  If there’s off-field stuff That surfaces again, then they are out some prorated minimum salary game checks.  As far as on-field antics, we saw no evidence of diva behavior on the Pats (unlike the Raiders, where he probably never had interest in playing anyway).  Arians and Brady aren’t going to put up with that, and if it happens, again, he’ll be gone fast and they’ll be out some game checks.

Just read this thread as evidence that people are altering their expectations for the TB offense. 

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5 hours ago, travdogg said:

What a few weeks ago was a maybe 60% Evans, Scottie Miller and Justin Watson, is now going to be Brown, a hopefully 100% Evans, and Godwin. Could certainly that adding 8-12 pass attempts per game.

Seems like a stretch to me. They are currently #7 in pass attempts per game, at 37.3 per game. DAL is first at 48.3 per game, but CIN is #2 at 41.0 per game. So +8-12 attempts per game for Tampa would elevate them to top 2 in passing attempts per game. Just doesn't seem to make sense given the quality of their defense and given that increasing passing attempts by 20-30% will also increase how often Brady gets hit.

If Brown is still close to what he was in 2018 and if he can avoid non-football issues, I think the bigger impact will be on the quality of Brady's targets, especially to people other than Brown. Evans and Godwin won't be able to be doubled and will draw weaker CB matchups. So that might help to offset any reduction in their targets. And any value Miller had is gone, barring injuries.

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6 hours ago, gbill2004 said:

Please remind me: was AB in Patriot's training camp last season and was he around for the pre-season games?  

No, Brown was "in" the Raiders camp. He had the foot issue and missed a lot of time.
The fallout came when Mayok wanted to fine Brown.

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42 minutes ago, Jail said:

Just read this thread as evidence that people are altering their expectations for the TB offense. 

Thank you.  I haven't been able to even get a response as to if Brown has issued an apology about the things he's done.

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All this back and forth about Brown is fascinating to me. I just don't see any reason any team brings Brown in for depth. He brings a ton of risk to the team and the locker room.  Why in the world would you bring that into your locker room and not have a plan for him.? I know this sounds bad but what happens if he commits a serious crime off the field? Ownership and the coaching staff is going to take incredible amounts of horrible PR and a total mess of a situation which is why if I was the decision maker for any team he would have been a hard pass for me. If Tampa brought Brown in for depth then shame on them because they are taking incredible risks with the future of the franchise.

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Godwin and Evans haven't been healthy. I've watched with keen interest, as I'm a Godwin dynasty and redraft guy. I have him all over the place. He doesn't look as fast as he was last year. That's a given with his injuries, but I wonder if there's something else we don't know about. Evans has looked gimpy on his ankle. We saw what happens when they both can't really go. You get an easily winnable game like Chicago and you lose it. They can't afford that in the playoffs.

Long story short: I think health reasons regarding their other receivers is what caused Tampa to do this. Otherwise, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to bring this guy in. Arians so much said so earlier in the year. But circumstances change, and I think this was a case of just that.

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I know we're a couple weeks away, but I wonder how many A Brown owners will be starting him in week 9 vs those who sit him on their bench to watch n' see. Some owners may or may not have that luxury, I get it. This thread will continue to blow up for probably the rest of the year. We're also watching his ranking numbers per FBG's ROS move the needle up as well. Yesterday he was like WR #103, now he's #52 with points per game projections going from low 5's to 8.44. In other words, he's a buy. I am sure trades are already happening as well. Be interesting to see what he brings too. What can Brown do for you? Perhaps in week 9 he moves from WR #3 all the way to WR #1in week 10 - idk. Regardless, I totally believe Brady will look his way often.

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5 minutes ago, Team Smokin' said:

I know we're a couple weeks away, but I wonder how many A Brown owners will be starting him in week 9 vs those who sit him on their bench to watch n' see. Some owners may or may not have that luxury, I get it. This thread will continue to blow up for probably the rest of the year. We're also watching his ranking numbers per FBG's ROS move the needle up as well. Yesterday he was like WR #103, now he's #52 with points per game projections going from low 5's to 8.44. In other words, he's a buy. I am sure trades are already happening as well. Be interesting to see what he brings too. What can Brown do for you? Perhaps in week 9 he moves from WR #3 all the way to WR #1in week 10 - idk. Regardless, I totally believe Brady will look his way often.

Totally agree with this post.

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Is this his true last chance? I remember thinking that when NE signed him last year. Yet, here we are.  
 

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2 hours ago, Grahamburn said:

Is this his true last chance? I remember thinking that when NE signed him last year. Yet, here we are.  
 

Probably not (unless he truly has lost a couple steps).  There will be a team that is "going for it" that values his talent.  I do believe he will probably screw things up at some point in Tampa.   

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Look at the contract incentives. 
 

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Buccaneers WR Antonio Brown's one-year contract has a max value of $2.5 million after incentives.

The deal includes a $750,000 bonus for a Super Bowl win. It also features bonuses for receptions, yards, TDs thresholds, each of which is worth $250K. All three statistical bonuses include the caveat that Tampa Bay must make the playoffs. The rest of his contract is $1 million in base salary and roster bonuses. Brown's range of outcomes is incredibly wide in Tampa Bay. Fantasy managers should view him as a flex option once he takes the field. His ceiling could be much higher if he takes on a large role and looks like the Brown of 2018 when he last played in Pittsburgh. 

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Talk about a motivational contract. But does he have a meltdown if the ball isn’t going his way?

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16 minutes ago, Grahamburn said:

Talk about a motivational contract. But does he have a meltdown if the ball isn’t going his way?

Tom will get him the ball plenty - it’s up to AB to do something with it.

after reading the contract details? I’m very excited about AB’s usage this year.

Edited by Ray Barboni
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8 hours ago, Grahamburn said:

Talk about a motivational contract. But does he have a meltdown if the ball isn’t going his way?

He might have a meltdown before he even sets foot on the field.  Who knows with this guy.

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Bleacher Report: Arians: If Antonio Brown Complains About Touches 'We're Going to Have a Problem'
 

Quote

"Mike [Evans] never #####es," Arians told Peter King of NBC Sports. "I love Mike. Today he didn't touch the ball till the fourth quarter, but he just wants to win. Chris Godwin, same way. Gronk, same way. If AB's not that way, then we're going to have a problem."

...

"This team's too good not to make that run and give our guys, our locker room, every chance," Arians said. "This move wasn't made without me talking to every single one of our veteran players. Do you want this guy? Do you want this guy in our locker room? Every man said yes."

This totally sounds like a coach who wanted AB here and didn't get overruled by the owners, players and Tom Brady.

 

EDIT: Full interview article with Arians

Edited by The Frankman
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