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Chase Stuart

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On 1/1/2018 at 4:26 PM, BobbyLayne said:

7 Pro Bowls, 6th in TDs, 28th AV (9th among QB), Top ten all-time in virtually every passing category.

FTR I’m in agreement, but I don’t think it’s as ludicrous as it seemed in 2010 when @Chase Stuart began the poll.

The other stats are impressive but number of Pro Bowls doesn't mean a whole lot.  Some of the QBs that have played in the Pro Bowl didn't even have good seasons in the year they made it.

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Just now, Godsbrother said:

The other stats are impressive but number of Pro Bowls doesn't mean a whole lot.  Some of the QBs that have played in the Pro Bowl didn't even have good seasons in the year they made it.

Always been the case, more so with QBs - injuries or playoff runs dictate a lot of replacements. Plus the voting is a joke at every position; guys with BY FAR the best year getting voting as alternates while guys with multiple previous Pro Bowls being voted starter/backup.

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Annual offseason bump. Here are Rivers’ current all time rankings (regular season):

62T	games started (208)
11	games started at QB (208)
3T	consecutive games started at QB (208)
	
10	wins (118)
13T	comeback wins (26)
17T	game winning drives (30)
	
9	pass attempts (7000)
21T	pass attempts per game (33.0)
8	completions (4518)
15	completions per game (21.3)
9	completion percentage (64.5%)*
	
8	total offense (52744)
8	passing yards (54656)
12	passing yards per game (257.8)*
9T	YPA (7.8)*
	
6	passing TDs (374)
27T	passing TD percentage (5.3%)*
	
41T	interceptions (178)
21T	interception percentage (2.5%)*
	
8	passer rating (95.6)*
7	AY/A (7.73)*
4T	NY/A (7.04)*
6	ANY/A (6.97)*
	
13	Approximate Value, all positions (191)
8	Approximate Value, QBs (191)
12	Approximate Value, all positions (weighted) (140)
7	Approximate Value, QBs (weighted) (140)
	
12	times sacked (411)
29	sack yards lost (2492)
44T	sack percentage (5.55%)*
	
19	fumbles (101)
11T	fumbles recovered (37)

The sack and fumble numbers aren’t great at face value, but they aren’t bad when context is applied, i.e., considering the below average pass blocking he has received throughout most of his career.

His rate statistics are impressive, and in some cases elite. Of the 10 rate statistics marked above with an asterisk (*), he is top 12 all-time in 7 of them. There is no reason to expect those rate statistics to drop off. His play this season led to improvement in many of them.

As for accumulated statistics, he is already top 8 in completions, passing yards, passing TDs, and total offense. If he plays 2 more seasons and avoids major injuries, he is a lock to also retire top 10 in games started at QB and wins, and top 15 in AV and weighted AV across all positions. He is also in position to pass both Mannings and be #2 behind only Favre in consecutive starts at QB. If he plays 3 more seasons, he could pass Marino and retire #5 in both passing yards and passing TDs, behind only Peyton, Favre, Brees, and Brady.

There is no reason to believe his play is slipping.

  • He was in the MVP discussion for a while and made his 8th Pro Bowl this season.
  • He broke the NFL record for consecutive completions in a game with 25 straight against Arizona.
  • He attempted fewer passes than he has since 2009, but he was still #8 in passing yards and #6 in passing TDs this season. He was also #5 in passer rating.
  • This season was Rivers' 10th season passing for more than 4000 yards; only 3 other QBs have done that.
  • It was his 11th consecutive season passing for 26 or more TDs; only 4 other QBs have done that.

Rivers has accomplished all of this while playing with generally inferior coaching, front office, and ownership support in comparison to his HOF caliber contemporaries. He has also generally had a weaker supporting cast. People will quickly point to Tomlinson and Gates, and they were certainly outstanding teammates... but those people generally ignore that he has played behind mostly terrible offensive lines... and I mean terrible.

Anyway, is all of this enough for him to make the HOF if he does not win a Super Bowl? I think it's close, but ultimately it will be tough for the HOF voters to leave him out, even if he never plays another game. But I expect he will play for 2-3 more seasons, which will make his case even stronger.

Edited by Just Win Baby
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At this rate, if Rivers is left out of the Hall because he didn't win a Super Bowl, might as well get Moon and Fouts out of there as well, since neither of those guys won one either (and both had less playoff wins than Rivers already has). 

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Dan Fouts

Jim Kelly

Sonny Jurgensen

Y.A.Tittle

Warren Moon

All in the HOF.

Philip Rivers has superior numbers and none of them ever won a SB.

Rivers will be there.

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Kelly went to 4 straight SBs and ran in to buzz saws in 3 of them. NO WAY anyone was beating Gibbs' Redskins, or Dallas 2x. But NYG, yes he could've.had they won that one maybe they get their mojo going in these other SBs..but  were some of the best SB winning teams of all time. So Kelly lost to 4 all time greats

RIvers will get in the HOF no doubt. 

 

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Rivers will get in The Hall,as will Ben and Eli from a QB class that has been pretty good.

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Annual offseason bump. Here are Rivers’ current all time rankings (regular season):

35	games started (224)
9	games started at QB (224)
2	consecutive games started at QB (224)
	
8	wins (123)
13T	comeback wins (27)
16	game winning drives (32)
	
7	pass attempts (7,591)
22	pass attempts per game (33.3)
6	completions (4,908)
15T	completions per game (21.5)
9	completion percentage (64.7%)*
	
6	total offense (57,166)
6	passing yards (59,271)
10	passing yards per game (260.0)*
9T	YPA (7.8)*
	
6	passing TDs (397)
32T	passing TD percentage (5.2%)*
	
29	interceptions (198)
30T	interception percentage (2.6%)*
	
10	passer rating (95.1)*
8	AY/A (7.68)*
5	NY/A (7.04)*
7T	ANY/A (6.92)*
	
12	Approximate Value, all positions (204)
7	Approximate Value, QBs (204)
10T	Approximate Value, all positions (weighted) (145)
6T	Approximate Value, QBs (weighted) (145)
	
11	times sacked (445)
21	sack yards lost (2,714)
44T	sack percentage (5.55%)*
	
12T	fumbles (109)
13T	fumbles recovered (37)

The sack and fumble numbers aren’t great at face value, but they aren’t bad when context is applied, i.e., considering the below average pass blocking he has received throughout most of his career.

His rate statistics are impressive, and in some cases elite. Of the 10 rate statistics marked above with an asterisk (*), he is top 10 all-time in 7 of them.

As for accumulated statistics, he is already top 6 in completions, passing yards, passing TDs, and total offense. If he plays 1 more season without injury, he should pass Marino and move into the #5 spot all-time in each of those statistics.

Rivers has accomplished all of this while playing with generally inferior coaching, front office, and ownership support in comparison to his HOF caliber contemporaries. He has also generally had a weaker supporting cast. People will quickly point to Tomlinson and Gates, and they were certainly outstanding teammates... but those people generally ignore that he has played behind mostly terrible offensive lines... and I mean terrible.

Anyway, is all of this enough for him to make the HOF if he does not win a Super Bowl? I think it's close, but ultimately it will be tough for the HOF voters to leave him out, even if he never plays another game.

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5 of Rivers contemporaries will definitely go to the hall of fame. Brady, Peyton, Brees, Rodgers and Roethlisberger.

Two more probably deserve to get in ahead if him.  Eli has a better claim to be the sixth because his numbers are close and he has two rings.  Matt Ryan started 4 years later and is only 8000 yards back, plus he has a superbowl appearance - he's probably a little ahead of rivers too. 

Rivers is probably ahead of guys like Vick and cam newton, but i think Vick did more to change bthe game than rivers. The chargers most successful teams were led by Tomlinson so I'm not sure rivers gets credit for all of that.  

Rivers has longevity, but he hasn't done anything with it.  He's Matt Stafford. He's drew Bledsoe without the two afc championship game wins.  He's 

Hall of fame quarterbacks like Manning Brady and Brees are like nirvana and pearl jam and alice in chains.  Rivers is nickelback.  This is how i remind you of what he really is.  It's not like you to say sorry. Look at this photograph every time I do it makes me laugh.  

 

 

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29 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Rivers is probably ahead of guys like Vick and cam newton... He's Matt Stafford. He's drew Bledsoe without the two afc championship game wins.

This stuff is pretty silly.

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17 minutes ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

so is your blind homerism

Those are both true statements, but bostonfred's stuff is sillier.

I mean, Drew Bledsoe, seriously? Bledsoe's career passer rating is 77.1 and he never had a season over 90. In the only year he led the league in a passing stat other than attempts (4555 yards in 1994), he also led in INTs (27). He never finished better than 7th in YPA. Rivers has led the league in YPA three times.

Rivers is definitely closer to Dan Fouts or Warren Moon than to Drew Bledsoe or Matt Stafford. 

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