What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

30 years from now (1 Viewer)

Do you think Rivers will be a member of the PFHOF?

  • Yes

    Votes: 51 23.9%

  • No

    Votes: 162 76.1%
  • Total voters
    213
Godsbrother said:
The other stats are impressive but number of Pro Bowls doesn't mean a whole lot.  Some of the QBs that have played in the Pro Bowl didn't even have good seasons in the year they made it.
Click to expand...
Always been the case, more so with QBs - injuries or playoff runs dictate a lot of replacements. Plus the voting is a joke at every position; guys with BY FAR the best year getting voting as alternates while guys with multiple previous Pro Bowls being voted starter/backup.

 
Annual offseason bump. Here are Rivers’ current all time rankings (regular season):

62T games started (208)
11 games started at QB (208)
3T consecutive games started at QB (208)

10 wins (118)
13T comeback wins (26)
17T game winning drives (30)

9 pass attempts (7000)
21T pass attempts per game (33.0)
8 completions (4518)
15 completions per game (21.3)
9 completion percentage (64.5%)*

8 total offense (52744)
8 passing yards (54656)
12 passing yards per game (257.8)*
9T YPA (7.8)*

6 passing TDs (374)
27T passing TD percentage (5.3%)*

41T interceptions (178)
21T interception percentage (2.5%)*

8 passer rating (95.6)*
7 AY/A (7.73)*
4T NY/A (7.04)*
6 ANY/A (6.97)*

13 Approximate Value, all positions (191)
8 Approximate Value, QBs (191)
12 Approximate Value, all positions (weighted) (140)
7 Approximate Value, QBs (weighted) (140)

12 times sacked (411)
29 sack yards lost (2492)
44T sack percentage (5.55%)*

19 fumbles (101)
11T fumbles recovered (37)


The sack and fumble numbers aren’t great at face value, but they aren’t bad when context is applied, i.e., considering the below average pass blocking he has received throughout most of his career.

His rate statistics are impressive, and in some cases elite. Of the 10 rate statistics marked above with an asterisk (*), he is top 12 all-time in 7 of them. There is no reason to expect those rate statistics to drop off. His play this season led to improvement in many of them.

As for accumulated statistics, he is already top 8 in completions, passing yards, passing TDs, and total offense. If he plays 2 more seasons and avoids major injuries, he is a lock to also retire top 10 in games started at QB and wins, and top 15 in AV and weighted AV across all positions. He is also in position to pass both Mannings and be #2 behind only Favre in consecutive starts at QB. If he plays 3 more seasons, he could pass Marino and retire #5 in both passing yards and passing TDs, behind only Peyton, Favre, Brees, and Brady.

There is no reason to believe his play is slipping.

  • He was in the MVP discussion for a while and made his 8th Pro Bowl this season.
  • He broke the NFL record for consecutive completions in a game with 25 straight against Arizona.
  • He attempted fewer passes than he has since 2009, but he was still #8 in passing yards and #6 in passing TDs this season. He was also #5 in passer rating.
  • This season was Rivers' 10th season passing for more than 4000 yards; only 3 other QBs have done that.
  • It was his 11th consecutive season passing for 26 or more TDs; only 4 other QBs have done that.
Rivers has accomplished all of this while playing with generally inferior coaching, front office, and ownership support in comparison to his HOF caliber contemporaries. He has also generally had a weaker supporting cast. People will quickly point to Tomlinson and Gates, and they were certainly outstanding teammates... but those people generally ignore that he has played behind mostly terrible offensive lines... and I mean terrible.

Anyway, is all of this enough for him to make the HOF if he does not win a Super Bowl? I think it's close, but ultimately it will be tough for the HOF voters to leave him out, even if he never plays another game. But I expect he will play for 2-3 more seasons, which will make his case even stronger.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
At this rate, if Rivers is left out of the Hall because he didn't win a Super Bowl, might as well get Moon and Fouts out of there as well, since neither of those guys won one either (and both had less playoff wins than Rivers already has). 

 
Dan Fouts

Jim Kelly

Sonny Jurgensen

Y.A.Tittle

Warren Moon

All in the HOF.

Philip Rivers has superior numbers and none of them ever won a SB.

Rivers will be there.

 
Kelly went to 4 straight SBs and ran in to buzz saws in 3 of them. NO WAY anyone was beating Gibbs' Redskins, or Dallas 2x. But NYG, yes he could've.had they won that one maybe they get their mojo going in these other SBs..but  were some of the best SB winning teams of all time. So Kelly lost to 4 all time greats

RIvers will get in the HOF no doubt. 

 
Annual offseason bump. Here are Rivers’ current all time rankings (regular season):

35 games started (224)
9 games started at QB (224)
2 consecutive games started at QB (224)

8 wins (123)
13T comeback wins (27)
16 game winning drives (32)

7 pass attempts (7,591)
22 pass attempts per game (33.3)
6 completions (4,908)
15T completions per game (21.5)
9 completion percentage (64.7%)*

6 total offense (57,166)
6 passing yards (59,271)
10 passing yards per game (260.0)*
9T YPA (7.8)*

6 passing TDs (397)
32T passing TD percentage (5.2%)*

29 interceptions (198)
30T interception percentage (2.6%)*

10 passer rating (95.1)*
8 AY/A (7.68)*
5 NY/A (7.04)*
7T ANY/A (6.92)*

12 Approximate Value, all positions (204)
7 Approximate Value, QBs (204)
10T Approximate Value, all positions (weighted) (145)
6T Approximate Value, QBs (weighted) (145)

11 times sacked (445)
21 sack yards lost (2,714)
44T sack percentage (5.55%)*

12T fumbles (109)
13T fumbles recovered (37)


The sack and fumble numbers aren’t great at face value, but they aren’t bad when context is applied, i.e., considering the below average pass blocking he has received throughout most of his career.

His rate statistics are impressive, and in some cases elite. Of the 10 rate statistics marked above with an asterisk (*), he is top 10 all-time in 7 of them.

As for accumulated statistics, he is already top 6 in completions, passing yards, passing TDs, and total offense. If he plays 1 more season without injury, he should pass Marino and move into the #5 spot all-time in each of those statistics.

Rivers has accomplished all of this while playing with generally inferior coaching, front office, and ownership support in comparison to his HOF caliber contemporaries. He has also generally had a weaker supporting cast. People will quickly point to Tomlinson and Gates, and they were certainly outstanding teammates... but those people generally ignore that he has played behind mostly terrible offensive lines... and I mean terrible.

Anyway, is all of this enough for him to make the HOF if he does not win a Super Bowl? I think it's close, but ultimately it will be tough for the HOF voters to leave him out, even if he never plays another game.

 
5 of Rivers contemporaries will definitely go to the hall of fame. Brady, Peyton, Brees, Rodgers and Roethlisberger.

Two more probably deserve to get in ahead if him.  Eli has a better claim to be the sixth because his numbers are close and he has two rings.  Matt Ryan started 4 years later and is only 8000 yards back, plus he has a superbowl appearance - he's probably a little ahead of rivers too. 

Rivers is probably ahead of guys like Vick and cam newton, but i think Vick did more to change bthe game than rivers. The chargers most successful teams were led by Tomlinson so I'm not sure rivers gets credit for all of that.  

Rivers has longevity, but he hasn't done anything with it.  He's Matt Stafford. He's drew Bledsoe without the two afc championship game wins.  He's 

Hall of fame quarterbacks like Manning Brady and Brees are like nirvana and pearl jam and alice in chains.  Rivers is nickelback.  This is how i remind you of what he really is.  It's not like you to say sorry. Look at this photograph every time I do it makes me laugh.  

 
Johnny B. Goode said:
so is your blind homerism
Click to expand...
Those are both true statements, but bostonfred's stuff is sillier.

I mean, Drew Bledsoe, seriously? Bledsoe's career passer rating is 77.1 and he never had a season over 90. In the only year he led the league in a passing stat other than attempts (4555 yards in 1994), he also led in INTs (27). He never finished better than 7th in YPA. Rivers has led the league in YPA three times.

Rivers is definitely closer to Dan Fouts or Warren Moon than to Drew Bledsoe or Matt Stafford. 

 
Just Win Baby said:
Yes.

There is every reason to believe he can have a career like those of Fouts or Warren Moon, who are HOFers, which implies he could fail to win a ring and still make it.

This is his third straight year of absolutely dominant play, and he has done it this year without his top weapons, so there is every reason to believe he can maintain his play while his supporting cast changes around him.

He has been durable throughout his college and NFL career. He set an NCAA record for starts in college and has never missed a start in college or in the NFL. While any player can get hurt on any play, that suggests that he has a better than average chance of playing out a long career and not missing many games while doing so... which, in turn, means he will probably end up ranking pretty high in various passer totals. And if he does, he will likely continue to be very efficient in doing so, which should elevate him statistically over a lot of other QB greats.

I certainly don't think it is a nobrainer, but the question is whether or not I expect him to be in 30 years from now, and I do.
Click to expand...
My first post in the thread was pretty much spot on. The answer to the thread question is yes.

 
Looking at this by HOF induction timeline:

  • Aikman and Moon were inducted in the HOF class of 2006
  • Favre was the next QB inducted, in the HOF class of 2016
  • Warner was inducted in the HOF class of 2017
  • Peyton will be in the HOF class of 2021 (first ballot)
  • Eli will be eligible in the HOF class of 2025; I'm expecting him to get in, but will it be first ballot? probably
  • Brees will be in the HOF class of 2026 (first ballot)
  • Brady will be in his first ballot HOF class, which could be 2027 (if he retires after next season) or 2028 or maybe 2029
  • Rodgers will be in his first ballot HOF class, so somewhere in the classes of 2027-2030, depending on when he retires
  • Roethlisberger will presumably make it in the first class he is eligible that doesn't overlap with Brady or Rodgers, so somewhere in the classes of 2027-2030, depending on when they all retire
So, without Rivers, that is a 25 year period during which 10 QBs will have been inducted, assuming no senior nominee QBs make it by 2030. 5 of those will occur within the last 5 classes of that period, but that is circumstantial, since it so happens that several HOF worthy QBs will happen to retire within 5 years of one another.

In the preceding 25 HOF classes, from the class of 1981 to the class of 2005, 15 QBs were inducted, even though fewer HOFers were inducted overall. Interesting to see such a contrast given the explosion of passing in the NFL. It truly does seem like there has been a golden era of QB play over the past 15-20 years, and it isn't just due to the rule changes, it is also due to several of the best QBs of all time playing at the same time.

There is not an easily identifiable group of young QBs who seem like locks to make the HOF. Guys like Wilson  and Ryan certainly have that potential, but not sure if they are there yet. Mahomes looks obvious but has a long way to go.

Though I doubt this is something considered by the HOF voters, there is a chance it could help Rivers.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Just Win Baby said:
.

There is not an easily identifiable group of young QBs who seem like locks to make the HOF. Guys like Wilson  and Ryan certainly have that potential, but not sure if they are there yet. Mahomes looks obvious but has a long way to go.
Click to expand...
I'd bet on Wilson making the hall. 

But you make a good point. There's not really another good candidate who entered the league between 2006 (maybe Ryan in 08 and stafford in 09? But neither are locks) and 2016 (possibly prescott?)

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The possibility of Rivers coming back late in the 2021 season caused me to look back at this thread, and I realized the last time I summarized his metrics was 2 years ago.

Here are Rivers’ current all time rankings (regular season), 1 year into retirement:

  • Honors/awards:


    2013 Comeback Player of the Year
  • 8 Pro Bowl selections

[*]Starts:

[*]Wins, etc.:

[*]Standard career metrics:

[*]Advanced career metrics:

The sack and fumble numbers aren’t great at face value, but they aren’t bad when context is applied (i.e., considering the below average pass blocking he received throughout most of his career).

He retired top 5 in the primary accumulated statistics (completions, passing yards, passing TDs) and also had strong rate statistics, retiring top 15 in completion percentage, passing yards per game, and passer rating.

Rivers accomplished all of this while playing with generally inferior coaching, front office, and ownership support in comparison to his HOF caliber contemporaries. He also generally had a weaker supporting cast. People will quickly point to Tomlinson and Gates, and they were certainly outstanding teammates... but those people generally ignore that he has played behind mostly terrible offensive lines... and I mean terrible.

IMO that point was emphasized by the fact that he went from the 5-11 2019 Chargers to the Colts -- new team, new offensive scheme, new teammates, and in the first COVID-impacted offseason -- and led them to 11 wins and a playoff spot. On offense, the skill players around him were weaker, but the OL was much stronger, and he had a much better head coach.

Anyway, is all of this enough for him to make the HOF? I think it's close, but ultimately it will be tough for the HOF voters to leave him out, even if he never plays another game.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

T
Travdogg's 3 round mock draft
2
Replies
74
Views
2K
jtd13
jtd13
T
Travdogg's positional rankings from week 14 onward (last update)
Replies
24
Views
1K
N Zone
N Zone
ignatiusjreilly
How many first-round QBs will actually pan out?
Replies
12
Views
371
ignatiusjreilly
ignatiusjreilly

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top