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Bill Belichick

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Kicking the FG on 4th and 6 was clearly the right call. Failing to do so is falling victim to two common fallacies; equating a TD with 8 points, and equating a tie with a win. As we saw, an 8-point game isn't a one-score game; it's a TD and a 2-point conversion game, and that's just to tie. The 2-point conversion is less than 50%, and OT is 50%, so your odds of winning after scoring a TD in an 8 point game is less than 25%.

So that's your best-case scenario going for it on fourth and six. And making it on fourth and six is even lower than 50%, so now you're down at less than a 10% chance to win. If you kick the FG with 2:25 to go, what are your chances with all three TOs of stopping Denver and scoring a TD? Gotta be better than 10%. (And that's what actually happened).

I'll go one step further and say they should have kicked a FG with 4th and 1 at the 16. Making that puts them down 5 with 6 minutes left. All they need then is a stop, which they got, and a TD (or two FG's). They wouldn't have even needed the Gronk TD at the end and could have milked the clock down to zero and kicked the game-winning FG with no time left.

BB was way too aggressive in a game where Peyton wasn't moving the ball well.

The common fallacy that you guys are falling victim to is that everything would have played out exactly the same way if they had kicked the FG (either time).

Of course these decisions are going to be scrutinized (which is the reason most coaches generally aren't aggressive enough IMO), but I think you can make a pretty good argument either way.

Of course the game wouldn't have been the same. But I'd rather be down five kicking off with 2:25 to go and 3 timeouts, than down eight going for it on fourth and 6 with 2:25 to go.

That's nice, but it doesn't change the fact that those aren't the only two possibilities, nor does it change the fact that we can't say for sure which of those options gives them the better chance to win the game.

It was a pretty simple decision; kick the FG or go for it. Assuming a 33-yard FG is more or less an extra point, let's call it 94%. I'll leave out the scenario where you miss the FG and still win the game, so assume you lose 6% of the time for missing the FG. Now you're kicking off with 2:25 left down 5 with 3 TOs. Do you think you have less than a 10% chance of winning in that scenario? You need to keep the other team from getting two first downs, and then score a TD. Seems not too hard. 15, 20%?

The first problem is that these are all binary events which are going to either be successful or not, you don't get to run them 100 times. If any one of the plays don't go according to the "odds", everything from that point forward is changed drastically.

The second is, what are the appropriate stats to use to assign said odds? For example, are NE's chances of converting the same as the league average on 4th and 6th, the same as only their attempts on 4th and 6, only on 4th and 6th in the 4th qtr while trailing, in the regular season, postseason, or both, home vs. away, do you use stats from only this season or the last X years, how do you adjust for the opponent, etc, etc, etc. Every single play is unique, so it's really impossible to say what the odds are of converting any individual scenario. I think you can make a reasonable guesstimation, and sometimes it's very clear which would give you the best odds, but I don't think this is one of those times. You can certainly believe that one or the other gave them a better chance, but this isn't something that can be proven with math. It's close enough IMO that you could make reasonable adjustments to the assumptions that would result in a different outcome.

I don't think 4th and 6 had to happen. Is it more likely to convert 4th and 6, and convert the 2-point conversion, and win in OT, or to stop Denver from getting a first down? As I noted, the first sequence of events is extremely low probability, less than 10%. Denver converted only four first downs in the entire second half.

I don't think it had to happen either, but again, these aren't the only two scenarios. You also left out a pretty gigantic part to make that an apples to apples comparison, which is what had to happen after you stop Denver from getting a first down.

I noticed you're factoring in that Denver converted only four first downs in the entire second half, but not factoring in bunch of other things, including that NE's offense had never driven to that field position in the entire game before the first 4th down call. Again, it's impossible to accurately calculate it, but it isn't as cut and dried as you're implying IMO.

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It's never cut and dried. But my statement stands; if I had to choose a scenario that would win or lose me a million bucks, I'd choose the scenario where I'm kicking off to an offense that isn't working very well, down 5 with 2:25 left and 3 TOs, over the scenario where I'm going for it on fourth and six from the 16 down by 8. If it was fourth and goal on the 6, I might have a different opinion. If it was fourth and one on the 16 it would be different. If you were down by five instead of 8 it would be different. But putting yourself in the situation where you're trying a high-risk play against a great defense, when the best-case scenario still requires that you make a 2-point conversion just to tie, doesn't make sense.

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The thing I'll always like about Evil Bill is that he will always be a Baltimore Colt and proclaimed Bert Jones the best passer he ever saw. He got his first NFL gig under Ted Marchibroda with the Colts in the mid-70s.

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I noticed you're factoring in that Denver converted only four first downs in the entire second half, but not factoring in bunch of other things, including that NE's offense had never driven to that field position in the entire game before the first 4th down call. Again, it's impossible to accurately calculate it, but it isn't as cut and dried as you're implying IMO.

That's a consideration, but then it's Tom Brady. Even though the Patriots weren't moving the ball well you can't assume Brady won't be able to get a TD in the final 6 minutes. They were also playing Peyton who had a 5.1% INT rate on the season. I say kick the FG with 6 minutes left and trust your defense to stop Peyton and Brady to score a TD.

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I noticed you're factoring in that Denver converted only four first downs in the entire second half, but not factoring in bunch of other things, including that NE's offense had never driven to that field position in the entire game before the first 4th down call. Again, it's impossible to accurately calculate it, but it isn't as cut and dried as you're implying IMO.

That's a consideration, but then it's Tom Brady. Even though the Patriots weren't moving the ball well you can't assume Brady won't be able to get a TD in the final 6 minutes. They were also playing Peyton who had a 5.1% INT rate on the season. I say kick the FG with 6 minutes left and trust your defense to stop Peyton and Brady to score a TD.

I have no problem with anyone saying they would have rather kicked the FG (in either situation). My point is just that you can't say "Kicking was clearly the correct call", and then throw out a bunch of percentages and think that proves anything. He factored in one consideration that helped his case, but ignored another that hurt it- that's not really being objective.

Case in point here- I'm not assuming that he won't be able to get a TD at all, but what were the odds? At one extreme you could argue that since he hadn't done so all game and was facing a great defense on the road that was beating him up all game they were very, very low. At the other you could argue he's one of the GOAT and they were "due" so the odds were pretty high. The true odds were somewhere in the middle of those two extremes, but there is a wide range of reasonable odds you could assign it.

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I noticed you're factoring in that Denver converted only four first downs in the entire second half, but not factoring in bunch of other things, including that NE's offense had never driven to that field position in the entire game before the first 4th down call. Again, it's impossible to accurately calculate it, but it isn't as cut and dried as you're implying IMO.

That's a consideration, but then it's Tom Brady. Even though the Patriots weren't moving the ball well you can't assume Brady won't be able to get a TD in the final 6 minutes. They were also playing Peyton who had a 5.1% INT rate on the season. I say kick the FG with 6 minutes left and trust your defense to stop Peyton and Brady to score a TD.
I have no problem with anyone saying they would have rather kicked the FG (in either situation). My point is just that you can't say "Kicking was clearly the correct call", and then throw out a bunch of percentages and think that proves anything. He factored in one consideration that helped his case, but ignored another that hurt it- that's not really being objective.

Case in point here- I'm not assuming that he won't be able to get a TD at all, but what were the odds? At one extreme you could argue that since he hadn't done so all game and was facing a great defense on the road that was beating him up all game they were very, very low. At the other you could argue he's one of the GOAT and they were "due" so the odds were pretty high. The true odds were somewhere in the middle of those two extremes, but there is a wide range of reasonable odds you could assign it.

I agree - if the Patriots convert on the 4th and 1 and score a TD it looks like a genius call.

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I'll play Monday morning QB too... BB should have kicked 3 FGs instead of going for it three times on the last three posessions. I see a lot of arguing for kicking one FG then scoring a TD to end the game, but that was after a previous 4th down call to go for it earlier in the game. If BB had kicked the 1st FG and was down by 5 I guarantee he would have kicked the FG on the 2nd to last drive, putting them only down by 2, then it would have been a no brainer FG to end the game with the win on their last possession. Going for it when they might have kicked a FG earlier in the game is what forced them to then go for it the 2nd and 3rd time.

Really tho its the kicker's fault for putting them in that position to begin with.

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Really tho its the kicker's fault for putting them in that position to begin with.

If BB can't overcome a missed extra point early in the game, he doesn't deserve his own thread.

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1. John Wooden
2. Vince Lombardi
3. Red Auerbach
4. Paul Brown
5. Bear Bryant
6.Toe Blake
7. Bill Walsh
8. Pat Summitt
9. Joe Torre
10. Dean Smith

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3 hours ago, massraider said:

This guy is so much better than every other coach, it's a joke.  I hate him so much.  

H8 and Mad "shaking my head" Respect. Mostly hate. Hate that he is so ####### good.

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7 hours ago, grateful zed said:

1. John Wooden
2. Vince Lombardi
3. Red Auerbach
4. Paul Brown
5. Bear Bryant
6.Toe Blake
7. Bill Walsh
8. Pat Summitt
9. Joe Torre
10. Dean Smith

Is this a list of the next 10 best coaches after Bill Belichek?

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7 hours ago, grateful zed said:

1. John Wooden
2. Vince Lombardi
3. Red Auerbach
4. Paul Brown
5. Bear Bryant
6.Toe Blake
7. Bill Walsh
8. Pat Summitt
9. Joe Torre
10. Dean Smith

That is one horrendous top 10 list.

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Joe Torre... :lmao::lmao: 

Despite not being a Patriots fan, I've come around to, well, maybe not liking Belichick, but not disliking him so much anymore.  His greatness is impossible to deny, and I get a kick out of the way he trolls the media. 

 

 

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Q: But do you have to get some clarification on his injury status before making any personnel decisions and how do you balance those two things?

BB: I'm a football coach. I'm not a doctor. The medical staff is the medical staff. I coach the team; the medical people handle the injuries. They don't call plays; I don't do surgery. We've got a great deal there. It works out good.

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8 hours ago, Judge Smails said:

GOAT and it ain't close...

He needs a better name than GOAT...maybe like Super GOAT or something but plain old GOAT is misleading. 

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24 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Q: But do you have to get some clarification on his injury status before making any personnel decisions and how do you balance those two things?

BB: I'm a football coach. I'm not a doctor. The medical staff is the medical staff. I coach the team; the medical people handle the injuries. They don't call plays; I don't do surgery. We've got a great deal there. It works out good.

:lmao:

In life, I've found the insufferable twits who love to throw barbs and give off the "smartest person in the room" vibe are generally far from it. Most true geniuses go through life with a half- befuddled air, because they can't understand why even the supposedly brilliant people they surround themselves with can't grasp them. 

But once in a while, you get someone who's a genius, a sarcastic bastard, and secure in their station, like my Fluid Dynamics professor in undergrad, or Bill Belichick. And my God, those folks are a joy to behold. 

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1 minute ago, Baloney Sandwich said:

Ron Borges gave Belichick a C+ grade for last night

Well if he can troll the media... the media gets to troll him back.  :lmao:

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Those houston coaches were coaching scared last night and it was obvious.

He is the best nfl coach of the modern era. No doubt. To beat him you need people with balls who are not afraid. Harbaugh. Coughlin. Etc... 

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Love Belichicks response anytime anyone asks him if he enjoys coaching...

----------------------

Nov 26, 2009

NFL Network's Michael Lombardi was in town this week for an interview with Patriots coach Bill Belichick, and NFL.com has a short snippet of the one-on-one that will air Sunday morning.

Lombardi asked Belichick how he still has the same passion for coaching at age 57.

"It sure beats working,"

Edited by Bossman

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Great coach, but why does the NFL cut him special favors. Dallas Cowboys can't wear a helmet sticker for murdered police, league fines players for their socks and other uniform violations, players can't wear patriotic cleats. But Belichick cuts the sleeves off NFL apparel hoodies and looks like a bum and that is deemed OK.

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Just now, boltsfan said:

Great coach, but why does the NFL cut him special favors. Dallas Cowboys can't wear a helmet sticker for murdered police, league fines players for their socks and other uniform violations, players can't wear patriotic cleats. But Belichick cuts the sleeves off NFL apparel hoodies and looks like a bum and that is deemed OK.

:lmao:  :lmao:  :lmao:

 

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How he still amazes me is a feat in itself.  I can't believe they are 3-0 with no QB to speak of after beating a very good Arizona team and embarrassing a good Houston team.

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48 minutes ago, boltsfan said:

Great coach, but why does the NFL cut him special favors. Dallas Cowboys can't wear a helmet sticker for murdered police, league fines players for their socks and other uniform violations, players can't wear patriotic cleats. But Belichick cuts the sleeves off NFL apparel hoodies and looks like a bum and that is deemed OK.

He's just trying to raise awareness of the plight of the homeless in America.

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I hate to admit how much I absolutely love when this dude talks to the media.  Snapface and instachat. 

I should hate this guy, but I just can't.  

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I feel sorry for the rest of the country, because BB the football genius rarely shows up when the national media is around. His local radio interviews are literally must listen programming. 

Early in the season he got asked what it was like when they had to play TB12 back in 2001. He talked for half an hour about specific plays 15 years later and knew every detail. The down and distance, the time left in the game, who they were trying to scheme against, who was out with injuries, which refs were in the game and what they were calling. Not just the Pats players, but the guys on the other team, what they did to make adjustments off of disguised stunts and blitzes, etc. 

He went on to talk about Vinatieri and the snow game ( better known as the tuck rule game) and what he called the greatest kick in the history of the NFL. He knew the exact distance, the speed of the wind, which side of the stadium they were on and the realistic kicking range based on the wind. 

He also went on to say that someone got hurt in the game and they had to put in someone on special teams on the FG try that had not played on the FG squad. So on the fly they were trying to get the player the snap count, who he had to block, where the pressure was going to come from (based on players and based on which gap).

I could go on and on. He was a living, breathing database and wealth of information. I would take that BB over the we're on to Cincinnati any day of the week. His football knowledge could be measured in terrabytes. 

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13 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I would take that BB over the we're on to Cincinnati any day of the week. His football knowledge could be measured in terrabytes. 

Then perhaps the media should show THAT stuff rather than "were on to blahblah" each week, and maybe also consider asking much less idiotic questions.

The media reports what they want to report. They apparently think the people would rather hear drone Bill than actual Bill.

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On 1/17/2017 at 3:41 PM, Anarchy99 said:

I feel sorry for the rest of the country, because BB the football genius rarely shows up when the national media is around. His local radio interviews are literally must listen programming. 

Early in the season he got asked what it was like when they had to play TB12 back in 2001. He talked for half an hour about specific plays 15 years later and knew every detail. The down and distance, the time left in the game, who they were trying to scheme against, who was out with injuries, which refs were in the game and what they were calling. Not just the Pats players, but the guys on the other team, what they did to make adjustments off of disguised stunts and blitzes, etc. 

He went on to talk about Vinatieri and the snow game ( better known as the tuck rule game) and what he called the greatest kick in the history of the NFL. He knew the exact distance, the speed of the wind, which side of the stadium they were on and the realistic kicking range based on the wind. 

He also went on to say that someone got hurt in the game and they had to put in someone on special teams on the FG try that had not played on the FG squad. So on the fly they were trying to get the player the snap count, who he had to block, where the pressure was going to come from (based on players and based on which gap).

I could go on and on. He was a living, breathing database and wealth of information. I would take that BB over the we're on to Cincinnati any day of the week. His football knowledge could be measured in terrabytes. 

:goodposting:
The guy is quite literally a genius... a bit of an #######, but a genius. I think when it's said and done, it will be difficult to argue him being anything other than one of the, if not the greatest NFL coach who's ever lived. 

 

Edited by [icon]

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41 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Then perhaps the media should show THAT stuff rather than "were on to blahblah" each week, and maybe also consider asking much less idiotic questions.

The media reports what they want to report. They apparently think the people would rather hear drone Bill than actual Bill.

I get both sides on this one. The press wants to know about an injury, or a game plan, or how a rookie is coming along. Bill is not ever going to answer those questions. He certainly is not going to answer when the words are rearranged to form the same question. Three reporters the same thing in a row is just dumb, and I agree with him on that one.

The press is not going to want to ask about the changes in the use of specialized or sub package players compared to when he was on the Giants. He'd answer that one for 20 minutes. But that's not news. They want to know what was going on with the footballs for deflate gate. They want to know when Gronk is coming back and how close is he to being 100%. They want to know which free agent players the Pats want to keep for next year, in which order, and for how much. He will never answer those types of questions, so we get the gruff BB with the stockpiled answers (we will do what's best for the team . . . I'm not a doctor . . . they're a great team with a lot of great players . . . they are good in all three faces of the game . . .)

The irony is that he will tell the reporters he's here to talk about the game against the Steelers. Yet he won't actually talk about the upcoming game against the Steelers.

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Brady is right there with him in terms of ability to recall and work through information. Bill has talked abouy Brady just pulling historical plays out of the wind in full detail.

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19 minutes ago, Run It Up said:

Brady is right there with him in terms of ability to recall and work through information. Bill has talked abouy Brady just pulling historical plays out of the wind in full detail.

I have heard Bill tell stories from the 70's and 80's with details I wouldn't be able to recognize or remember if it happened this morning.

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I think that Belichick has probably been more important to the success of NE than Brady has been -- and that's really saying something, considering that I also think that Brady is the best QB ever to step on an NFL football field. It's really pretty effing remarkable that they're together on the same franchise at the same time.

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7 minutes ago, Coeur de Lion said:

I think that Belichick has probably been more important to the success of NE than Brady has been -- and that's really saying something, considering that I also think that Brady is the best QB ever to step on an NFL football field. It's really pretty effing remarkable that they're together on the same franchise at the same time.

It's amazing what partners in crime can accomplish.

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37 minutes ago, Coeur de Lion said:

I think that Belichick has probably been more important to the success of NE than Brady has been -- and that's really saying something, considering that I also think that Brady is the best QB ever to step on an NFL football field. It's really pretty effing remarkable that they're together on the same franchise at the same time.

I'm hoping Belichick sticks around for 5-10 years after Brady retires.  Because I'm very curious what type of Coach/GM he is after Brady.  I think he's obviously one of if not the best defensive guys ever.  But he might have some offensive holes that are covered up by having Brady.  On the other hand he might not.  It's really tough to tell.

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3 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I get both sides on this one. The press wants to know about an injury, or a game plan, or how a rookie is coming along. Bill is not ever going to answer those questions. He certainly is not going to answer when the words are rearranged to form the same question. Three reporters the same thing in a row is just dumb, and I agree with him on that one.

The press is not going to want to ask about the changes in the use of specialized or sub package players compared to when he was on the Giants. He'd answer that one for 20 minutes. But that's not news. They want to know what was going on with the footballs for deflate gate. They want to know when Gronk is coming back and how close is he to being 100%. They want to know which free agent players the Pats want to keep for next year, in which order, and for how much. He will never answer those types of questions, so we get the gruff BB with the stockpiled answers (we will do what's best for the team . . . I'm not a doctor . . . they're a great team with a lot of great players . . . they are good in all three faces of the game . . .)

The irony is that he will tell the reporters he's here to talk about the game against the Steelers. Yet he won't actually talk about the upcoming game against the Steelers.

Because they don't LET him talk about the game.

And yeah, they are idiots for asking 50 questions that they full well 100% know that NONE of which will be answered.  That is why they do it, cause apparently the people prefer to see the BB we have come to know and love, which is the guy you mentioned above in your middle paragraph. 

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Nothing like snarky BB to get the day going. The weather in NE overnight and this morning was snow, sleet, and freezing rain. One would think the perfect weather for a controlled indoor practice to be able to work on things and get things done.

Not if you're Bill Belichick. Practice was held at the usual time in the usual place . . . in the steady freezing rain, on a sloppy field with patches of ice and pools of water. After the usual warm ups, basic training task master Sgt Belichick stepped onto the field and shouted to the troops (with the media present). "Looks like it's the perfect day to work on ball control. Wouldn't you agree, DION?"

From what I heard, you did not want to be a Patriot player today.

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34 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

After the usual warm ups, basic training task master Sgt Belichick stepped onto the field and shouted to the troops (with the media present). "Looks like it's the perfect day to work on ball control. Wouldn't you agree, DION?"

:lmao:

This is priceless.  

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