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Dynasty LB Rankings (1 Viewer)

BearsFan

Footballguy
Big UFA period for dynasty leagues currently.

Would be very interested in seeing updated rankings from the staff.

 
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Not ready to put together and post 2011 1-60 rankings yet given all the unknowns (CBA, number of games, free agency, draft, OTAs, etc.), but here's a rough update on the early LB tiers I put together in the last few weeks of the Reading the Defense column.

As usual, my dynasty rankings look a lot like the coming season's redraft rankings through the top 30 players, then reflect youth and upside outside the top tiers. Slots within tiers are roughly in the order I'd draft, trade, target a given player. However, it's worth noting that multiple tiers may include "LB3" values and there's some intermingling of raw value between some of the tiers. For example, depending on situation, I'd usually rather have Donald Butler/Pat Angerer over Lamarr Woodley and I'd probably rather have most of the LB3 Vets over a guy like Kavell Conner.

I'll try to get through the DL and DB tiers over the next few days.

Happy to take compare and contrast value and strategy questions if these tiers are too general. And please let me know if I've missed any obvious targets.

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Stud LB1Patrick Willis, Jerod Mayo, Stephen Tulloch, Paul Posluszny

Stud LB1 Upside / LB2 Downside

James Laurinaitis, Lawrence Timmons, Jon Beason,

DJ Williams, Curtis Lofton, Derrick Johnson, Daryl Washington

DeMeco Ryans, Barrett Ruud

LB2 with LB1 Upside

Karlos Dansby, Ray Lewis, Chad Greenway, Rolando McClain, Jonathan Vilma

LB2 Upside / LB3 Downside

Desmond Bishop, DeAndre Levy, Sean Lee, London Fletcher, David Harris, D'Qwell Jackson, Sean Weatherspoon

Thomas Davis, David Hawthorne, Lance Briggs, EJ Henderson, Brian Urlacher

Rush LBs with LB3+ (Top 30) Upside

Clay Matthews, Brian Cushing, Cameron Wake, Tamba Hali, Brian Orakpo, Demarcus Ware, Lamarr Woodley, James Harrison

High Risk With LB3+ Upside

Donald Butler, Pat Angerer, Jamar Chaney, Rey Maualuga, James Anderson, Brandon Siler, Aaron Curry

Brandon Spikes, Rennie Curran, Gerald McRath, Kavell Conner

Vets Worth Rostering LB3 Upside Or Depth

Gary Brackett, Justin Durant, Lofa Tatupu, Stewart Bradley, Nick Barnett, Paris Lenon, Michael Boley

Bradie James, Clint Session, Rocky McIntosh, Daryl Smith, Stephen Cooper, Kirk Morrison

Dhani Jones, Keith Rivers, Takeo Spikes, Kevin Burnett, James Farrior

Rainy Day LB3/4 Rush LBs

Calvin Pace, Shaun Phillips, Matt Roth

Young LB5 Placeholder Candidates With LB4+ Upside

Darryl Sharpton, Perry Riley, Jason Worilds, O'Brien Schofield

Navorro Bowman, Jermaine Cunningham, Jonathan Casillas, Joe Mays

Taxi Squad Specials (Long Shots With Upside)

AJ Edds, Phillip Dillard, Lee Robinson, Koa Misi, Rodderick Muckelroy

Unless I've missed them, anyone not listed above are players I think are replacement level lineup players, veterans without any long term upside or young players who may be closer to moving out of the lineup than moving into it. There may be an Akin Ayodele or Keith Brooking like run of month long value and they aren't necessarily bad rosters, but will likely give you nothing in relative advantage or trade bait.

 
As a Kevin Burnett owner i don't know how he isn't on this list. He was the number 16 LB last year and is in a great situation in SD.

 
How about Jamar Chaney in Philly? Will the change at DC perhaps give him more of an opportunity over Bradley?

ETA - :thumbup: Sorry I see him in the High Risk With LB3+ Upside group now.

 
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eakfootball said:
As a Kevin Burnett owner i don't know how he isn't on this list. He was the number 16 LB last year and is in a great situation in SD.
Kevin Burnett is listed among the Vets Worth Rostering as LB3/Depth tier. He's a free agent, along with multiple other SD linebackers, soon to play for a new DC (albeit in a similarly aggressive 3-4 front) if he stays, with a long history of inconsistency and durability issues. I wouldn't slot him any higher than this tier for now, but there's certainly an argument that the current slots for he and Stephen Cooper are faulty.
 
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Thanks Jene! Very helpful!

Several stand out to me:

Rolando McClain-What did he show this year to lead you to believe that he'll turn it around?

DeMeco Ryans-Will he have similar upside given that HOU is moving to a 3-4?

Desmond Bishop-LB3 downside even if Barnett comes back?

James Anderson-What type of role does he come back into? Don't see him being a 3-down if Beason/Davis are on the field.

Sean Lee-LB3 downside even if Brooking comes back?

Pat Angerer-Will he even win a 3-down role over Conner, and as an SLB or WLB? or is his future as MLB?

Jamar Chaney-Is he really front-runner for MLB over Bradley?

Chad Greenway-LB1 upside as an SLB? What if MIN moves away from the cover-2?

 
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Jene I know I'm not adding anything to this thread, but just had to say that your work is always the first I read and much appreciated.

Yourself, John & Sig alone are worth paying the pennies each year for subscription. This postboard stuff is gravy.

-Bearsfan- McClain definitely showed signs of 'getting it' before his injury. Look how many guys up the point end of that list took some time to adjust before becoming studs (although yes, they weren't drafted as high as McClain nor given the immediate opportunity).

 
Rolando McClain-What did he show this year to lead you to believe that he'll turn it around?

He's clearly never going to be a sideline-to-sideline stud, but I think he finally showed over the last six weeks that he can be productive if he lets his instincts drive his play. There's surely 90 solo upside with him if that continues. I also think there's some upside with a new defensive coordinator, too, depending on who that may be.

DeMeco Ryans-Will he have similar upside given that HOU is moving to a 3-4?

I expect Ryans to play WILB. It would appear that Brian Cushing and Darryl Sharpton are the other candidates to play inside; both seem better suited to a SILB position. With Wade Phillips' 1-gap 3-4 front, setting aside what's happened in Dallas where he didn't have an every-down WILB, Ryans has the same upside that guys like Donnie Edwards and DJ Williams had.

Desmond Bishop-LB3 downside even if Barnett comes back?

That one's risky for sure. But Bishop's contract is a starter's contract. I think he showed enough late this season to expect him to stick in the majority of subpackages. I'm not sure which veteran remains with GB next year (both have hefty contracts, Hawk is inconsistent, Barnett isn't durable), so I'm most willing to bet on Bishop. There are concerns -- will Capers stay, will Bishop play SILB, will Bishop sit in subpackages, will Bishop decline now that he's earned a big contract -- so your risk tolerance is important here.

James Anderson-What type of role does he come back into? Don't see him being a 3-down if Beason/Davis are on the field.

No idea. Carolina has said that they won't pursue any free agents, including their own, until the CBA situation has been resolved. The hiring of Ron Rivera could mean some change to the Carolina 4-3, but he's had enough background in an aggressive 4-3 with Tampa-2 concepts that the WLB spot may still have value. When we find out who plays where and in the nickel, we'll know more. If both Anderson and Davis are there, I agree that Davis is likely the better target.

Sean Lee-LB3 downside even if Brooking comes back?

It'll be a new DC, but I think Lee has put enough on tape to push Brooking aside in 2011. If Brooking returns as the starter, Lee's immediate upside remains the same as late 2010 -- a priority youth backup with LB2+ upside down the road.

Pat Angerer-Will he even win a 3-down role over Conner, and as an SLB or WLB? or is his future as MLB?

Tyjuan Hagler was judged a better nickel option than Conner last season. Conner could improve in coverage and earn a job in the nickel, but I think it's unlikely. I think Angerer's long term future is probably inside, but he'll play one OLB spot until Gary Brackett moves on. It'd be better if he plays WLB, but the every-down component is more important. My guess is that he fits as the every-down SLB next year, limiting his ceiling but slotting him as a LB3 with inconsistent weekly upside.

Jamar Chaney-Is he really front-runner for MLB over Bradley?

Immediately after Chaney's first game, Reid said Bradley was the starter. Presumably, that meant only for 2010, however, as there was later speculation that Chaney had done enough to earn strong consideration as the MLB. The Johnson/McDermott team pushed for Bradley's intelligence and instincts inside, but he doesn't have the range that Chaney has. I think it's possible (and maybe likely) that Chaney impresses the new defensive staff enough to start inside.

Chad Greenway-LB1 upside as an SLB? What if MIN moves away from the cover-2?

I think the only change we'll see in Minnesota is that Frazier may bring more aggressive elements to the 4-3 he's used over the last two seasons. Unless Henderson has a late career renaissance or the Vikings get a stud in-the-box safety to compete for tackles, Greenway continues to hold 90 solo upside. Again, as with Angerer above (who doesn't have the range and cover skills Greenway does and therefore not the same upside), the key is the every-down component to his role. I don't think Greenway is on the verge of becoming the next Derrick Brooks or Keith Bulluck, however, and I'd be hesitant to anchor him in the top twelve.

 
Thanks for the deep dive Jene!

Only one more question for now...

How do you think the ILB positions will shake out in San Diego?

Cooper (Age 32), Siler (Age 25), and Burnett (Age 28) are all UFAs (pending CBA)!

My hunch is that Burnett is young and versatile enough to go elsewhere for a better contract and they'll try Donald Butler as WILB.

Then the question becomes whether they'll keep Cooper or Siler at SILB?

I say Cooper stays and remains a 3-down unless his coverage skill are eroding.

 
Thanks for the deep dive Jene!Only one more question for now...How do you think the ILB positions will shake out in San Diego? Cooper (Age 32), Siler (Age 25), and Burnett (Age 28) are all UFAs (pending CBA)!My hunch is that Burnett is young and versatile enough to go elsewhere for a better contract and they'll try Donald Butler as WILB.Then the question becomes whether they'll keep Cooper or Siler at SILB?I say Cooper stays and remains a 3-down unless his coverage skill are eroding.
I don't have a great read on the SD situation. As you noted, Cooper is older than some might think; he was an "old" rookie and took some time to move into the lineup. But the team has always praised his command of the defense. Siler, at times, has looked like the Chargers' best linebacker but after a 2009 season where he forced himself into the base defense, he seemed to fall out of favor this year and only played when Cooper was injured with Burnett playing nearly every snap. And Burnett was much better against the run last year. I'd call Butler a lock to start this year (given the FA situations and the vote of confidence AJ Smith gave by dealing up to get him), but the Achilles injury robbed him of lots of developmental time.If Burnett isn't re-signed, I think it bodes very well for Butler, who probably fits better at WILB. I doubt they'll re-sign both Cooper and Siler.
No Geno Hayes or Quincy Black? Oversight or on purpose?
I'm withholding judgment on Hayes. His play in 2009 and 2010 was markedly different. If we hear that he was fighting some nagging injury or had some kind of offseason surgery, I might be willing to add him into the vets worth rostering as depth tier. For now, he's one of the more disappointing every-down 4-3 OLBs in the league. I like Black, but playing time and SLB concerns make him too inconsistent to put into that tier, too. Both would be outside my top 60 dynasty linebackers right now.
 
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What about Witherspoon? Has been around, but he is younger than some of the guys you have listed and has finished in the 30's the last couple seasons.

 
What about Witherspoon? Has been around, but he is younger than some of the guys you have listed and has finished in the 30's the last couple seasons.
Hawk and Witherspoon may hang around the 30s, but both are examples of durable guys that would finish outside the top 50 if rated on a ppg basis and the very definition of replacement level talent. Neither are locks to hit against their best matchups, which makes it difficult to use them as a LB4/5 rainy day play. Both are also closer to losing their starting jobs than landing in a spot with a breakout opportunity. Both are surrounded by strong competition for tackles, one (Hawk, if in GB) is also stuck on a defense that's limited their own tackle opportunity often over the past two seasons.There's no guarantee Hawk returns to Green Bay next season, and no guarantee he'll play every down (in GB or elsewhere). The assist count last season was nice, but he had just two games with more than six solos.Witherspoon hasn't prorated to a 75+ solo season in two years (he played 17 regular season games last year) as an every-down OLB. He has the benefit of having some big play upside, but if you're looking for a big play LB5 there are plenty of better 3-4 OLB options. I'd also be concerned that the Titans decide on Rennie Curran and Gerald McRath as their OLBs.There's an argument that either is as valuable as a Stephen Cooper, James Farrior and Takeo Spikes, especially Witherspoon vs the last two. I'm probably splitting hairs with him. For now, I'm just a little more comfortable projecting the first three to hold a near every-down job in 2011 than Witherspoon and Hawk.
 
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As a Kevin Burnett owner i don't know how he isn't on this list. He was the number 16 LB last year and is in a great situation in SD.
Kevin Burnett is listed among the Vets Worth Rostering as LB3/Depth tier. He's a free agent, along with multiple other SD linebackers, soon to play for a new DC (albeit in a similarly aggressive 3-4 front) if he stays, with a long history of inconsistency and durability issues. I wouldn't slot him any higher than this tier for now, but there's certainly an argument that the current slots for he and Stephen Cooper are faulty.
Ok thanks, didnt see hm
 
No Dumervil?
I'd expect Dumervil (and Robert Ayers) to play more DE this year, with the Broncos likely moving toward a 4-3 under John Fox. If they decide to transition more slowly and stay primarily 3-4, he fits into the Rush LB with LB3+ upside tier. Had I done these tiers later in the week, Matt Roth might not have made the list for similar reasons. It's likely that **** Jauron moves toward a 4-3 in Cleveland, too, and I think Roth is more likely to be considered a DE than a SLB.
Does Jovan Belcher have LB4 upside?
Yes, he could finish around the Top 50, but he's at high risk of losing snaps if the Chiefs bring in a linebacker this offseason.
 
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Do you expect Dummerville to be a DE or LB for MFL next year? As a LB in our scoring system he has very little value but that would change dramatically if he was a DE. I know it's tough guessing on this at this time but what would be your best guess?

 
So who do you think will be playing the weak side in Cleveland?
Hard to say. Jackson is a free agent (and fits at MLB, too) and there aren't any strong every-down WLB candidates elsewhere on the roster. Fujita may be an option, too, I suppose.
Do you expect Dummerville to be a DE or LB for MFL next year? As a LB in our scoring system he has very little value but that would change dramatically if he was a DE. I know it's tough guessing on this at this time but what would be your best guess?
It certainly looks like the Broncos are going to move toward a 4-3. Dumervil is almost certainly a DE in that scenario unless they choose to use him as a situational standup rusher. If he's available in your league, he's worth rostering for the upside.
 
Session's a UFA though, isn't he?

He goes to a non-Tampa 2 team and most of whatever value he has goes directly into the toilet, in my mind.

 
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Not ready to put together and post 2011 1-60 rankings yet given all the unknowns (CBA, number of games, free agency, draft, OTAs, etc.), but here's a rough update on the early LB tiers I put together in the last few weeks of the Reading the Defense column.

As usual, my dynasty rankings look a lot like the coming season's redraft rankings through the top 30 players, then reflect youth and upside outside the top tiers. Slots within tiers are roughly in the order I'd draft, trade, target a given player. However, it's worth noting that multiple tiers may include "LB3" values and there's some intermingling of raw value between some of the tiers. For example, depending on situation, I'd usually rather have Donald Butler/Pat Angerer over Lamarr Woodley and I'd probably rather have most of the LB3 Vets over a guy like Kavell Conner.

I'll try to get through the DL and DB tiers over the next few days.
Thanks for the update to your article Jene. Are you still planning on doing the same for your DL and DB articles?
 
Not ready to put together and post 2011 1-60 rankings yet given all the unknowns (CBA, number of games, free agency, draft, OTAs, etc.), but here's a rough update on the early LB tiers I put together in the last few weeks of the Reading the Defense column.

As usual, my dynasty rankings look a lot like the coming season's redraft rankings through the top 30 players, then reflect youth and upside outside the top tiers. Slots within tiers are roughly in the order I'd draft, trade, target a given player. However, it's worth noting that multiple tiers may include "LB3" values and there's some intermingling of raw value between some of the tiers. For example, depending on situation, I'd usually rather have Donald Butler/Pat Angerer over Lamarr Woodley and I'd probably rather have most of the LB3 Vets over a guy like Kavell Conner.

I'll try to get through the DL and DB tiers over the next few days.
Thanks for the update to your article Jene. Are you still planning on doing the same for your DL and DB articles?
I've been working on the DL group in fits and starts over the past week. I should get through it this week and I'll add it as a post in BearsFan's DL thread. I need to update the coach/scheme thread with some thoughts, too. Not sure I'll do a full tier breakdown with the DBs, but I may do an overvalued/undervalued/priority watch list discussion instead.
 
What happens if Ruud leaves?
My guess is he won't, but if he does, I think they would draft a MLB in the first or second round and said rookie would be an immediate starter. In my unexpert opinion Geno Hayes and Quincy Black are good, but neither would be moved to MLB.
 
Hi Jene

As always, thanks for all your work. Awesome stuff. Are Russell Allen (Jax) or Chris Chamberlain (Stl) worth rostering in deep leagues? Allen had a nice 3 game run at the end of the year.

Thanks

:goodposting:

 
Hi JeneAs always, thanks for all your work. Awesome stuff. Are Russell Allen (Jax) or Chris Chamberlain (Stl) worth rostering in deep leagues? Allen had a nice 3 game run at the end of the year.Thanks :popcorn:
Allen could have a shot at a playing time if Durant isn't re-signed, but there's not a lot of upside, but he's well outside the top 60 in a dynasty list. Chamberlain isn't worth rostering.
 
any thoughts on cushing with houston's move to 3-4 and him to ILB? does it help/hurt/or not change anything for him?

 
<!--quoteo(post=12859248:date=Jan 27 2011, 08:27 AM:name=Pick)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Pick @ Jan 27 2011, 08:27 AM) <a href="index.php?act=findpost&pid=12859248"><{POST_SNAPBACK}></a></div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->Sessions was doing well before getting injured.<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->Sessions ALWAYS does well when he is not injured...that is his major problem. Bob Sanders of the Colts LB Corps.
Same with Barnett. I expect him to leave unless he signs for less, but doubt he does.
 
How much should we worry about Thomas Davis' repeat ACL injuries? Will he be the same player that looked like a aure LB1?

 
interesting that Hawthorne has the 1st SEA LB listed, was even a 3 down LB last yr?
I think there's a good argument that Hawthorne is a tier too high -- he did not play in the subpackages often last year -- but I'd certainly rather take a chance on his proven upside than Lofa Tatupu (durability and production questions) and Aaron Curry (SLB with a limited upside nickel pass rushing role). Will Herring was given a RFA tender last month, but it's questionable whether that will stick. If he's elsewhere, Hawthorne gets a small bump with the few nickel snaps the Seahawks use.
Will Zach Diles be the other ILB?Is Quincy Black going to have a bigger role in the Defense?
As TMWNN noted, the Texans are planning to use Ryans and Cushing inside. I don't think Diles was offered a tender and he's way down the depth chart with Darryl Sharpton playing well enough to earn the primary ILB backup role.Hard to know what the plan in Tampa will be. Ruud and Black are both free agents and the team hasn't seriously discussed a contract with either one. I think Black would be in the mix for a larger role if Ruud leaves, but it's not as clear as the Timmons, Tulloch, Bishop, Hawthorne situations have been in recent seasons. It's more along the lines of a Rey Maualuga deal -- could move inside, might struggle if he does, no guarantee he'd play every down (though it'd be likely since the team wouldn't move him inside in the T2 if they didn't feel he could cover).
 
Jene- do you really see Stephen Tulloch in that elite class of LBers? He seemed more like a good system guy to me last year, and while a good system can be a great thing, systems can change. He just doesn't strike me as a great LB, pretty good speed, pretty solid tackler, but I saw him miss quite a few plays as well last season. I think he's a very good fantasy LB, but not much value at that current ranking. Most of the rankings I really like. Desmond Bishop really impressed me as the season went along last year. Good tackler, could blitz off the edge at times, and better than expected pass defense I thought. The GB LB situation is a bit muddled, but I gotta think this guy is the favorite to be the GB LB on the field the most next season, outside of Clay Matthews.

 
I see a recent trend that Kavell Conner, IND are being picked up. Is this a deep prospect with a long shot or is he must have on Practice Squad?

 
Jene- do you really see Stephen Tulloch in that elite class of LBers? He seemed more like a good system guy to me last year, and while a good system can be a great thing, systems can change. He just doesn't strike me as a great LB, pretty good speed, pretty solid tackler, but I saw him miss quite a few plays as well last season. I think he's a very good fantasy LB, but not much value at that current ranking.
I'm more concerned with where he plays in 2010 than I was when these tiers were put together. I think he could thrive in most systems, but he'll have to play every down and see at least average opportunity to stick in the top tiers. If it's Tennessee or Detroit (one possible destination), I think he'll be fine. Other places may not be so kind to his upside.
I see a recent trend that Kavell Conner, IND are being picked up. Is this a deep prospect with a long shot or is he must have on Practice Squad?
That's a hedge that Clint Session won't be re-signed to play WLB. Conner was productive enough in the early down role last year when Session was injured, but he was behind both Pat Angerer and Tyjuan Hagler on the nickel depth chart. Worth a flyer in deep leagues (75 or more LBs rostered) only.
What happens if Ruud leaves?
My guess is he won't, but if he does, I think they would draft a MLB in the first or second round and said rookie would be an immediate starter. In my unexpert opinion Geno Hayes and Quincy Black are good, but neither would be moved to MLB.
Any chance Tyrone McKenzie could be a consideration?
I've seen that speculated, but I don't think he's fluid enough to cover the deep middle responsibility the Tampa-2 scheme would ask of him.
 
Cask las looked like a possible sleeper last year until he got hurt. I hope the cba is settled sooner rather than later so we can see if he has anything.

 
Jene, can you explain why you have Daryl Washington so high? That one stands out a bit to me, but maybe I've been sleeping on him.

 
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'tonka said:
Jene, can you explain why you have Daryl Washington so high? That one stands out a bit to me, but maybe I've been sleeping on him.
I think he has a better than 50% chance to assume the every-down ILB role this year (though Paris Lenon or a free agent pickup could still figure in), and a near 100% chance by opening weekend 2012. Plenty of opportunity (184 solos between the three primary backers last year) and just an okay surrounding cast should lead to LB2 numbers if/when that happens.
 

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