SofaKings
Footballguy
sort of like the protestors protesting the protestors?
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Meltdown in Japan's Reactors (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
David Dodds
Administrator
It seems as though the Japanese government have implemented Article 15, an emergency regulatory clause. Thus clause allows the senior levels of the Japanese government agencies from communicating with the public and news media and also bans nuclear regulatory and protection agencies from issuing statements about the nuclear crisis in Japan.
timschochet
Footballguy
I've given your comments some more thought. You've provided much information to this thread, and I've learned from you and I'm grateful for that. You're quite wrong about my motivation for the posts I have made, and I hope you'll take my word for that. But your own emotional response to the gravity regarding this issue is the correct one and I actually admire you for it. I do think the media has overblown this issue, and I intend to keep pointing that out. I hope you will take my comments for what they are and not evaluate them in terms of caring.
bueno
In a class by himself
This was especially true with critical mass. The shape and weight required for a critical mass reaction used to be a very tightly held secret. Suspect it still is.
Fennis
Footballguy
All normal. Two missing workers? Normal. Multiple Fires? Normal. Multiexplosionsions? Normal. Lack of info from the Government and the utility? Normal. Leaking radiation? It's like eating a banana. Filling plants with seawater? Normal Evacuations? Normal Stay indoors? Normal
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
I've missed the past few threads. Is Dodds looking less crazy yet?
bueno
In a class by himself
No, but I think Fennis is joining him.
Incogneto
Footballguy
I'm still curious why either of them are so worried? The effect of this, even in the event of a complete melt down, will not impact them in the US at all.
renesauz
IBL Representative
I think the nuclear crises has really taken so much of our attention that many people have missed the greater crises. Over ten thousand killed by the quake and subsequant tsunami. Thousands more missing or injured. MANY thousands homeless. Three power plants permanently OOC means a critical blow to the infrastructure of Japan and puts a serious damper on any real attempts to rebuild. Not to mention the devastated seaports, the loss of which will also cripple the Japanese economy.
I'm not trying to make light of 3 meltdowns, but if said meltdowns rendered a few square miles uninhabitable and killed several hundred people....they still wouldn't come close to the impact nature had on the Japanese people.
Also, keep in mind that this nuclear catastrophe occured because of one of the worst natural disasters of modern times. A 9.0 magnitude earthquake followed by a wave of water that wiped out dozens of towns and villages is about as severe a problem as a power plant can have to deal with...and they have managed to avert major catastrophe (major loss of life) thus far, and appear more likely to succeed than fail.
I'm not trying to make light of 3 meltdowns, but if said meltdowns rendered a few square miles uninhabitable and killed several hundred people....they still wouldn't come close to the impact nature had on the Japanese people.
Also, keep in mind that this nuclear catastrophe occured because of one of the worst natural disasters of modern times. A 9.0 magnitude earthquake followed by a wave of water that wiped out dozens of towns and villages is about as severe a problem as a power plant can have to deal with...and they have managed to avert major catastrophe (major loss of life) thus far, and appear more likely to succeed than fail.
Topes
Footballguy
Clean safe and too cheap to meter. It wouldn't make the utility companies any money, were it not for government subsidies. Invisible hand of the marketplace is on the take.
You forgot the costs of carbon-intensive mining and refining of uranium. Oh, and storing the waste. Oh, but there's no nuclear waste. It's only because of US regulatory boondoggle that there's any of this so-called waster at all in the United States. You'll hear this argument time and again. Nuclear waste can be refined and repurposed into so many wonderful, profitable things, if only it were not for the man (regulations) keeping us down.Jay Lehr, one of the top industry frontmen, puts forth all these same arguments. But, near the end, he tops it off with this nugget: "President Ronald Reagan lifted the reprocessing ban in 1981, but Congress did not allocate the substantial subsidy that would have been necessary to start commercial reprocessing efforts." So, it's not actually the man (regs and edicts) keeping you down. This most profitable venture truly can't get off the ground due to lack of government subsidy. Invisible hand is clapping in a forest; can't hear the hand through the trees.
Oh, another unaccounted-for cost is insurance. Price–Anderson Nuclear Industries Indemnity Act limits liability to $12.6 billion for each US Plant. Damages beyond that are paid by the federal government.
David Dodds
Administrator
Absolutely nothing going on here. If the Japanese government were able to field questions, it would look something like this:Q: Do you store spent rounds in the area above the reactors?A: We used to. But the hydrogen explosions gave us immediate relief from that issue.Q: How many spent rounds are stored in these reactors?A: Now? Not many. Hahaha. Q: What about all the readings of increased radioactivity in the area?A: Have you ever been sick from walking through a TSA airport screen? Exactly. So if the 1st time did not hurt you, why would doing it a 100,000 times hurt you? And that's what we are talking about here. Doing something absolutely harmless to you 100,000 times per day for maybe a few years.Q: Why did you increase the evacuation radius from 12 to 18 miles and tell everyone to stay indoors and seal their exits.A: Don't get the wrong impression here. We know this area is completely safe. We did this to reduce road congestion for help with the extra mud we need to move.
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Incogneto
Footballguy
IMO, this is the most important thing to take out of this! I would wonder what would have happened to a solar panals, wind turbines, coal plants, or anything else. This should be a strong statement TOWARDS Nuclear power, not against it.
Sheriff66
Footballguy
It would be funny if it weren't so true :(
Topes
Footballguy
None of them would be releasing radiation.
Jayrod
Footballguy
David Dodds
Administrator
Simple question to all the people saying a few of us are overblowing things:
Why would you send all but 50 of the workers home when it's clear that every one of these reactors has issues (fires, needing sea water, etc)? Why would you cut that back to less than 10 people per reactor? Clearly it's safe for everyone to be in that area (that's been your argument all along, right?), so why send 600+ home and just keep 50 working when the plant has issues with all 6 reactors and pools?
Why would you send all but 50 of the workers home when it's clear that every one of these reactors has issues (fires, needing sea water, etc)? Why would you cut that back to less than 10 people per reactor? Clearly it's safe for everyone to be in that area (that's been your argument all along, right?), so why send 600+ home and just keep 50 working when the plant has issues with all 6 reactors and pools?
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bakes
I am the Beer God!
It'd be funnier if his comments were isolated.
David Dodds
Administrator
Simple question number 2: Since the radiation levels are minimal, how about setting up some geiger counters on site and in surrounding areas via webcam so the world can watch along and show everyone how safe this technology is?
Topes
Footballguy
Vent Radioactive Gas? N-O. Venting prevents explosion. Vent Radioactive Gas? Okay then Y-E-S, vent the stupid gas.All this computer hacking is making me thirsty. I think I'll order a TAB.
"Meltdowns are but speedbumps on the road to energy independence."
bakes
I am the Beer God!
True, but those wind turbine blades would be scything through crap like there's no tomorrow.
Not sure if it's been answered yet, but what generation plants are the reactors that have been impacted? The latest presentation I saw from one of the new generation plants that are in the proposal stage here appeared to be quite failsafe.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
It might turn out to be incredibly dangerous and a disaster of epic proportions. It's hard to say what the extent is while in the middle of things. Most folk have said the chances of anything significant happening is low. As much fun as it is to read between the lines and speculate without qualifications and information, it's no reason to dismiss the experts.Why wouldn't you take precautions?
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
I think it's a Gen 1 reactor. The industry is currently building Gen 3+ reactors and knows what Gen IV reactors will be.Edit: reactors, not plants.I do that all the time.True, but those wind turbine blades would be scything through crap like there's no tomorrow.
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Otis
Footballguy
Ham-Dodds-Fennis sort of makes a formidable trio.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
What about the number killed mining uranium?
David Dodds
Administrator
Prior to this incident I would consider myself to be in the pro-nuclear power crowd. But if this government's response (or lack of response) is any indication of the real dangers facing us, I have completely changed my position. I keep hearing from people saying minimal radiation could escape. So why not show us this? This has been classified as a 6 on a 1-7 scale with the 7 being the worst nuclear disaster ever. Show the world how safe this is, even when everything goes wrong. What a better test than a 9.0 earthquake and 30 feet tsunami waves. If you can control the radiation from exiting to the point that no one is harmed, then show us that. But when you secretly cut off all dialogue with the press and implement a series of things that point to things not being safe at all, then don't expect us to believe how safe this technology is at a later time. The whole world is watching. If you have facts on your side, you could win a ton of people to your side right now.
Incogneto
Footballguy
'The axis of Tinfoil'
Fennis
Footballguy
On one side of the argument is the Japan Prime Minister, France's ASN nuclear agency, the IAEA, various regulatory agencies, not to mention the situation itself (partial meltdown, uncontrolled fires, multiple explosions, forced evacuations, workers injured and killed, people with radiation poisoning, etc) and on the other side is Otis, Bueno, and apparently the Fox News commentators.
Osaurus
Footballguy
Otis
Footballguy
Link?
David Dodds
Administrator
so how would you categorize this Otis? Completely safe to play wiffle ball near the site? The government has set up an 18 mile perimeter. We now know that spent rods were stored above these reactors and we have footage where at least two of these tops have blown off in hydrogen explosions meaning these rods are exposed. We have seen fires, explosions and the Japanese officials themselves agreeing to some level of of meltdown and containment breach. People are seeing increased radiation levels 100s of miles away at sea, in Tokyo, etc. The people in charge sent all of their people, but 50 home. The government has declared an "Article 15" cutting off all communication with the press and prohibiting any disclosure of info from the nuclear protection agencies, etc. so what does all that mean to you? Would you freak out if a dirty nuclear bomb exploded in NYC? Would you be cool if something like that happened in your backyard, but the government refused to tell you the truth to the radiation levels you are experiencing?
David Dodds
Administrator
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Otis
Footballguy
Ah yes, the technology drivers and world leaders in France.
Fennis
Footballguy
France is the model almost everyone points to when it comes to nuclear energy
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
I don't think many folk are denying this is a potentially very dangerous event. I don't believe it's to that point. It appears many experts also believe we are not there.Japan's job right now is not to appease the world and show how awesome nuclear power is. It's to keep what is a potentially very dangerous situation under control. And in case things go wrong, it's better the folk are evacuated NOW instead of after disaster hits.
Have there been any?
renesauz
IBL Representative
David, none of us have said it's safe for people to be working in the immediate vicinity of these reactors. We might well find that all or most of these brave men are taking on potentially lethal doses of radiation, as fuel has been exposed.Distance from exposed fuel is a HUGE consideration however. No matter how intense a gamma radiation source is, 1/4 mile away it's effects are nil. The danger to the public will come if
A: The fuel melts
B: fire or steam carries significant amunts of fuel/solid long lived fission material into the atmosphere.
ANY accident can release short lived radioactivity and scare the bejesus out of people. Part A ("meltdown") does not automaticly mean part B can or will occur. If the fuel, even if it's melted and recoagulated slag, can be kept covered with water, chances are fairly good that part B will be prevented or minimized.
Based on the reports, it's pretty clear that permanent damage has occured. Local (at the plant) radiation levels may well be too high for workers to safely stay there for long, but that does not mean that the general public has been significantly exposed. It is quite possible that these guys lives are being put in serious jeopardy and they may be the ones who volunteered to continue the fight.
It's important to distinguish something. Radiation is the actual energy of radioactive decay. It is commonly said to be "released", but that's like saying the sun releases light. Sunlight is easily blocked by materials or distance, just as radiation is. The problem comes when the materials, the substances actually PRODUCING the radiation get out. The only scenario where the more dangerous long lived stuff gets out to the general public is the one above. In such a scenario, localized (I'm talking within a couple hundred feet) radiation levels would be such that the local workers (working on the fires, etc.) would be incapacitated within hours and dead within days. The very fact that there are still numerous local workers at the scene fighting to keep the fuel cooled suggests that "worst case" has not occured. The fact that it's been several days and worst case has not occured suggests that it's unlikely to occur.
Fennis
Footballguy
at least 1http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700035311/Moab-miner-killed-in-uranium-mine.html?s_cid=rss-30
So that's your standard? No one gets hurt? People slip and fall in grocery stores. Do you want to shut all of them as well?
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
Dodds - you really think people would let facts interfere with their judgment if Japan showed people the steps you described? You don't think Hamfolk would pull out the foil and speculate? That's what is happening NOW. People like yourself are reading between the lines and ignoring experts.
And your argument against nuclear power is what? The fact these plants were outdated and at the end of their lifespan, suffered through the 4th largest earthquake since 1900, were attacked by at least 1 tsunami and dozens of massive aftershocks, yet STILL have yet to have a total meltdown (at least officially)?
I dare you to think up a bigger perfect storm. Yet these plants have held up amazingly well. Combined with even newer technology, I'm even *more* in the nuclear camp.
And your argument against nuclear power is what? The fact these plants were outdated and at the end of their lifespan, suffered through the 4th largest earthquake since 1900, were attacked by at least 1 tsunami and dozens of massive aftershocks, yet STILL have yet to have a total meltdown (at least officially)?
I dare you to think up a bigger perfect storm. Yet these plants have held up amazingly well. Combined with even newer technology, I'm even *more* in the nuclear camp.
Well, there you go. Shut it down!
Otis
Footballguy
Now you're being cute. Of course I wouldn't have my kids play wiffle ball near the site. But the truth is I wouldn't categorize this because we don't have enough facts to categorize it. What we do know, based on all the news reports I'm seeing, is that whatever increased radiation has escaped thus far is still essentially harmless to humans. It's the amount of radiation you get in a pack of cigarettes or a transatlantic flight. It's for those reasons I think the reaction in some of the media is absolutely ludicrous. Some of the headlines are so over the top. This talk about this being a devastating event are, at least at this point, over the top. Most people are saying those reactors are all sufficiently sealed such that there will never be a highly dangerous amount of radiation emitted. The news sites have an incentive to make this all seem dramatic -- it keeps us tuned in, and refreshing their websites. Of course they are going to go HamWhip on us.
As I am typing this Eliot Spitzer just got on CNN and said, in a very dramatic tone:
Breaking news tonight: there are just 50 people separating Japan from nuclear catastrophe
He then cuts to some schmuck and asks him "is your worst fear being realized now?"
:eyeroll:
This is absurd.
How about instead of asking for the energy companies to set up geiger counters, where is all the evidence of people dying from the radiation in this enormous catastrophe?
This whole stupid nuke thing is a sideshow and it's taken all the attention away from the real tragedies there.
Currently on CNN: "BREAKING NEWS: Smoke Rising From Power Plant." Seriously. That's the breaking news on my TV right now. That breaking news is exactly where we were two days ago. I just don't get it.
Yes, of course, if things get significantly worse, or if there is some kind of nuclear fission reaction, there is a problem. Until then, this is by all accounts this is barely three-mile island bad, and not even near Chernobyl bad, and even that wasn't so world-endingly terrible.
renesauz
IBL Representative
Not possible. A single death from radiation will be taken as an indictment...and I think that's both sad and unfair.I've seen fires at oil and gas refineries cause pretty significant evacuations too.
David Dodds
Administrator
Some of us believe these things might already be taking place.
The danger to the Nuclear Industry will happen when:
A. You lie about the dangers.
B. You refuse to keep people informed about the dangers.
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Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
In the absence of facts why do you jump to the worst conclusion?
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I honestly don't know.
That's a crock of #### and you know it. There are more than enough people who are going to rail against the industry with full and timely disclosure.
Otis
Footballguy
Some of us believe we've been abducted by aliens. Some of us believe black helicopters and GW Bush are setting up a New World Order. Some of us believe that the aliens are coming to pick them up, so they should wait on a mountain top to be picked up because they are the chosen ones.You joining the conspiracy theorist camp scares me, good buddy.
