***Official 2011 IDP NFL Draft Thread*** (1 Viewer)

For the sixth year running, we’ll be here discussing and analyzing every significant defensive draft pick as they come off the board. I’ll be posting each pick to this thread in blog form then editing in some specific thoughts (general and IDP) about each player’s impact on his new team in real time. We’ll also be adding coaching comments and video clips when they become available throughout the weekend and after the draft to keep everyone as up-to-date as possible about when, where and how a team sees its new addition fitting into their defensive scheme.

Unless there's a 23rd hour solution that allows a manic free agent period before the draft, we could see lots of interesting surprises. Teams with multiple free agents at one position might add yet another talented body to hedge themselves against finding themselves stuck after free agency. Or we might get some idea of which teams will have to pursue their own free agents more seriously than expected after losing out on a position in the draft.

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This year, I thought I'd put my usual pre-draft brief scouting thoughts and NFL comparisons as separate posts in this thread. I'll also add my thoughts on which teams have prime openings for high value IDP targets later this month.Defensive End Preview

Tweener Preview

Defensive Tackle Preview

Linebacker Preview

Defensive Back Preview

Pre-draft Bloom 100 -- 1-20

DE Opportunity by Team

LB Opportunity by Team

DB Opportunity by Team

If you’re new to these threads, here are our previous threads to revisit and enjoy. It’s always one of my favorite threads of the year.

2010 // 2009 // 2008 // 2007 // 2006

As always, the NFL comparisons are loose. They're meant only as a way to give a rough idea of body type, projected role and box score potential, not as a true expectation of their future. Some will be more of a stretch than others, but I still like to use them as a quick gestalt of sorts until we hear what their coaches have to say and what they look like on film in the preseason.

Defensive Ends

After Da’Quan Bowers, who projects solely as a 4-3 end, the buzzword on this group of defensive ends looks to be “scheme versatility.” There are a handful of 6-4, 285 lb prospects with the strength and athleticism to play end in either the 3-4 or 4-3 front. And 2011 has the usual handful of ‘tweener prospects who could fit as 4-3 rush ends or 3-4 outside backers. There will likely be a late round player or two drafted into a promising situation, but the fantasy upside and depth in this class will depend on whether those drafted by 3-4 teams develop into consistent box score producers and how many of the ‘tweeners are drafted by 4-3 teams.

Da’Quan Bowers (6-4, 280 – Clemson)

Explosive, but relies more on a strong array of pass rush moves and leverage to get to the quarterback. Should be well above average stack and shed run defender, making him a strong all-around 4-3 end prospect. Durability may be a major issue, however, depending on whether the truth lies in the rumored failed physical exams at the combine and shaky pro day or in his camp’s strong arguments that his knee is sound.

NFL Comparison: Charles Johnson, Aaron Kampman

Cameron Jordan (6-4, 283 – California)

Athletic and translates good strength into leverage consistently. Not an explosive pass rusher, but technically sound enough to be productive. Projects as a very good run defender either as a strong side 4-3 end or 3-4 end. Played 3-4 at Cal, but could be drafted by a 4-3 team.

NFL Comparison: Darnell Dockett, Shaun Ellis

Adrian Clayborn (6-4, 285 – Iowa)

Uses strength and leverage well when engaged and should stack and shed well against the run. Not explosive off the ball or on the edge, but often makes up for it by separating inside. More of a power and effort rusher than threat off the edge. Could fit as either a 3-4 end or 4-3 strong side end. Seems more likely than Jordan to be drafted by a 4-3 team.

NFL Comparison: Shaun Ellis, Will Smith

Ryan Kerrigan (6-4, 263 – Purdue)

Gets off the ball quickly, but isn’t explosive enough off the corner and doesn’t have the closing speed to be an edge rusher. Uses leverage, anticipation and motor to finish in the pocket. Technically sound run defender and shows good effort in pursuit. May not be athletic enough to be a stud 3-4 OLB, but likely has the instincts to adjust if asked. Might be more properly slotted into the ‘tweener group.

NFL Comparison: Kyle Vanden Bosch, Mike Vrabel

Cameron Heyward (6-5, 288 – Ohio State)

Quick off the ball and rarely hooked due to his hands, length and wide base. Power rusher, more likely to be effective on slants and stunts than off the edge. Excellent effort and work ethic. Could play in any scheme and there have been rumblings that he’ll land with a 4-3 team, but most likely projects as a 3-4 end.

NFL Comparison: Aaron Smith

Others worth watching: JJ Watt, Allen Bailey, Pierre Allen, Greg Romeus, Ugo Chinasa

On Deck: ‘Tweeners

To Follow: Defensive Tackles

Hey,Jene, a lot of noise locally and several mocks have the Jags taking Kerrigan as a 4-3 end. Also some have compared him to Kampmann because of motor.

Is he too small for a 4-3 DE? Also NFP calls him the most overrated prospect.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/The-drafts-top-five-overrated-prospects.html

It is reported that De'Quan Bowers knee will never become 100%, worst yet it is a degenerating disease. Any confirmation on that, does this mean as Dynasty owners we should not invest long term in this talented rookie?

'JaxBill said:

Hey,Jene, a lot of noise locally and several mocks have the Jags taking Kerrigan as a 4-3 end. Also some have compared him to Kampmann because of motor.Is he too small for a 4-3 DE? Also NFP calls him the most overrated prospect.http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/The-drafts-top-five-overrated-prospects.html

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I don't think he's too small. My reading of the scouting reports would suggest that he may not be explosive enough and may not have the edge rushing skill or closing speed to be a consistent pass rusher as a down lineman. I think Kampman is another very reasonable comp, especially since it seems most reasonable to expect him to need some seasoning (despite the motor) if he's drafted by a 4-3 team.

'Cipherchris said:

It is reported that De'Quan Bowers knee will never become 100%, worst yet it is a degenerating disease. Any confirmation on that, does this mean as Dynasty owners we should not invest long term in this talented rookie?

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It bugs me that we heard such a vociferous defense from his trainers and agent and then saw a very uninspiring Pro Day performance and 40 time. In some respects, any cartilage damage to the knee could be considered a risk to develop into a degenerative condition -- the cartilage in the knee joint doesn't heal well in certain locations.From a fantasy perspective, I don't invest high draft picks in a rookie 4-3 linemen unless there are no holes in his game. Bowers has lots of upside and a very strong scouting profile (potential two way talent), but I don't think he's the second coming of Julius Peppers or Dwight Freeney off the corner. And if there's anything to the knee concerns, it may amplify the lack of edge rushing talent by making it harder to lean off the corner or finish in the pocket (hurting his leverage and change of direction). To me, that means I'd probably not draft him until the late second round at the earliest and then only if his positional upside was a clearly better risk than another player at a different position. My guess is that I'll have him tiered somewhere in the third round on my combined offense-IDP draft board.

Tweeners are always a difficult read until draft day. Some may be drafted into a 4-3 end role, others into a 3-4 OLB role, others as 4-3 OLBs. I’m going to suspend the NFL comparison part of these reports for this position in favor of some brief notes about each prospect’s pass rush, run support and coverage ability. As always, unless you’re dealing with an elite edge rushing 3-4 OLB, the better all-around talent (or upside) a player has, the higher future IDP potential he has.

Von Miller (6-3, 246 – Texas)

Athletic and explosive, but may need a little technique work to allow his edge rushing talent to fully shine. Consistency may be an issue, but should be capable of becoming an above-average run defender and coverage backer when asked.

Robert Quinn (6-4, 265 – North Carolina)

Could be drafted as a 4-3 DE. Explosive off the ball, athletic off the edge, with a good array of pass rush moves. Inconsistent at the point of attack, but excellent in recognition and pursuit. Athletic enough to cover, but unlikely to be above average in space.

Aldon Smith (6-4, 263 – Missouri)

Will get looks as a 4-3 end. Quick and explosive, potentially an elite edge rusher if he can be consistent enough. Uses length and hands well against the run. Early entry that has lots of potential as an all-around, elite threat.

Jabaal Sheard (6-3, 264 – Pittsburgh)

Another that may end up drafted to play DE in a 4-3. Scouts differ on his explosiveness off the edge, but all agree that he has the skills to become a strong pass rusher. Quick to diagnose and make plays at the point of attack or in pursuit against the run.

Bruce Carter (6-2, 241 – North Carolina)

Like O’Brien Schofield last year, Carter’s future is dependent on his recovery from an ACL injury (Dec 2010). Had shown elite athleticism and explosiveness in all three phases at times prior to the injury and has the potential to be the best all-around 3-4 OLB prospect in this group if he can return to pre-injury form. Could also fit as a 4-3 OLB.

Brooks Reed (6-2, 263 – Arizona)

A tweener among tweeners. May not be strong enough to hold the edge as a 4-3 end, probably not fluid enough to be a consistent 3-4 OLB. Knows how to get to the quarterback and his combination of instincts and motor will earn him a long look wherever he ends up.

Justin Houston (6-3, 270 – Georgia)

Mature pass rusher with a solid array of pass rush moves and good technique. Very quick off the ball. Inconsistent in run support and will likely do much better as a linebacker than defensive end in that phase.

Also worth watching: Mark Herzlich, Dontay Moch, Jeremy Beal, Sam Acho

A lot of mock draft has Miller go to the Cards. Will he be a fantasy impact player there? or is he more of a reality football star?

'Cipherchris said:

A lot of mock draft has Miller go to the Cards. Will he be a fantasy impact player there? or is he more of a reality football star?

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That's a scoring system dependent question. I think he could take a Demarcus Ware like career path and blossom into an above-average run defender and at least decent coverage backer while consistently running up 14-16 sacks or better every year. If he can't consistently hit that 60 solo tackle plateau, it's hard to trust a player like Miller as anything more than a matchup/upside LB3 in balanced or tackle heavy systems.

There have always been a handful of defensive tackles that crack the top 15 in the year-end combined DT-DE IDP rankings. Over the past few years, each rookie class has seen a couple of prospects garner significant attention (McCoy-Suh, Jackson-Raji, Dorsey-Ellis) and this year looks to be no different. Jury is still out on McCoy, but the hit rate on these players (sample size notwithstanding) has been decent for those in DT specific leagues.

Lots of potential scheme versatility in this group, too, and it wouldn't be jaw-dropping to see a player expected to slot as a 4-3 DT end up playing NT or DE in a 3-4 (as Jackson, Raji and Dorsey do currently).

Nick Fairley (6-4, 292 - Auburn)

Has the scouting report of an elite IDP DT. Explosive and disruptive against the run and strong and athletic in pass rush. Highest upside as a 1-gap defensive tackle, but would probably still hold statistical value as a 2-gap tackle or end. Comparisons to Albert Haynesworth suggesting that he's a flake on and off the field seem shaky. I think Ellis and McCoy are reasonable on-field comps.

Marcell Dareus (6-3, 320 - Alabama)

May never be an elite pass rusher inside, but should produce some pass rush. Played 2-gap DE at Alabama (closed end in Saban's 3-4 hybrid) but has the explosiveness and agility to fit as a 4-3 DT.

Corey Liuget (6-2, 297 - Illinois)

Quick and powerful, good closing speed for an interior defensive lineman. Very athletic and could grow into a consistent pass rusher, especially if used as a 3-technique on passing downs. Similar comps to Fairley above, though maybe not quite as explosive. Maybe a little more like Dorsey than McCoy.

Stephen Paea (6-2, 302 - Oregon State)

Quick and disruptive inside, but without the range of those above as a run defender. Better than average pass rusher. Versatile enough to play 3-4 DE. Questions about whether he can focus as more than a rotational player.

Also worth watching: Drake Nevis, Marvin Austin, Muhammad Wilkerson

Lots of interesting non rush linebacker prospects this year. Not sure there's a truly elite player likely to be a stud regardless of scheme and position, but there are many more guys who could project as every down players then in recent seasons. We'll be waiting until Saturday to see most of these names come off the board, but no free agency means we may see these guys go a bit earlier (3rd-4th round instead of 4th-6th round).

Again, NFL comps are meant to be loose illustrations only.

Mason Foster (6-1, 246 – Washington)

Not explosive between the tackles, but strong and sheds well. Good instincts and playing speed. Sound tackler. Reads short zones well and won’t be a liability in coverage underneath. Could play any ILB position and could surprise with the right team and become a solid every-down contributor.

NFL Comparison: Gerald Hayes

Martez Wilson (6-4, 249 – Illinois)

Well above-average explosiveness and speed for his size. Instinctive and strong, able to shed well but doesn’t play with leverage consistently. More speedy than athletic. Projects well in coverage and pass rush. Every down defender but it’s hard to project his future position – he is a lot like Karlos Dansby in body type and skill set (potential 4-3 SLB, 3-4 ILB who could slide outside to rush passer at times).

NFL Comparison: Karlos Dansby

Greg Jones (6-0, 243 – Michigan State)

Plays with good quickness and leverage between the tackles. Can shed blocks, but more consistent when allowed some room to capitalize on his strong instincts. Smart angles and good agility make up for a lack of top end range and closing speed. Very good in zone coverage and can hold his own in man coverage underneath. Above-average inside pass rusher and blitzer. Very good intangibles. Best fits inside, and would probably be a better 4-3 MLB than 3-4 ILB or 4-3 SLB.

NFL Comparison: London Fletcher, less rangy Jon Beason

Quan Sturdivant (6-1, 240 – North Carolina)

Very aggressive, while showing good instincts. Physical and able to shed blocks, but inconsistent. Range outside the tackle box and good in pursuit, but doesn’t have elite speed. Not a clear every-down defender, but competes in coverage. Some off-field concerns. Versatile enough to play inside or outside, and could be a productive (though not impact) tackler at multiple positions.

NFL Comparison: Gerald Hayes

Ross Homan (6-0, 241 – Ohio State)

Can be physical and understands how to play with leverage at the point of attack, but struggles to shed blockers. Has sideline-to-sideline range. Able to read and react well. Good tackler. Instinctive and aware in zone coverage, but may not be athletic enough to excel in man. Shows good timing on inside blitzes. Can probably play anywhere in the 4-3 and potentially either 3-4 ILB position.

NFL Comparison: Paris Lenon, upside maybe Paul Posluszny with size

Jonas Mouton (6-1, 238 – Michigan)

Tough, aggressive and quick. Very good range and strong in pursuit. Good instincts and reads well. Strong tackler, but will miss at times. Projects very well in coverage. Has some upside in pass rush inside. Likely slots to a 4-3 OLB spot, preferably WLB where his range and pursuit can be best used. Questionable fit as a 3-4 ILB unless well positioned in a 1-gap scheme.

NFL Comparison: Kevin Burnett

Colin McCarthy (6-1, 237 – Miami)

Athletic, rangy and quick. Plays downhill at times, but not consistently physical at the point of attack and doesn’t shed blocks well. Smart and versatile enough to play multiple LB positions in college. Very good in coverage. Could grow into a three-down linebacker, likely best suited to play 4-3 OLB.

NFL Comparison: Will Witherspoon

KJ Wright (6-3, 245 – Mississippi State)

Does lots of things well (sound, instinctive, always around the ball, capable in coverage) but doesn’t have elite measurables or skills. May either be a very productive college player that doesn’t have it at the next level or a solid, but not spectacular defender with a long career. Could fit in either a 4-3 or 3-4.

NFL Comparison: Eric Barton, Kirk Morrison

Casey Matthews (6-0, 230 – Oregon)

Instinctive and plays well on the run after his quick reaction. Fights through trash well, but sometimes struggle to shed blocks after engaged. Sudden, but sure tackler. Solid in pursuit, but doesn’t have elite range. Projects well in coverage and on delayed pass rushes. Size may be an issue if his instincts do not translate well enough.

NFL Comparison: Lofa Tatupu, smaller Chad Greenway

Kelvin Sheppard (6-2, 249 – LSU)

Athletic, with excellent range for his size. Good strength and playing speed, hard hitter. Questionable instincts, too aggressive at times. Projects well in coverage, including man against backs and tight ends. Versatile enough to play inside or outside. Might be a late bloomer if his read-and-react skills improve with coaching and grow to complement his athleticism.

NFL Comparison: Thomas Howard, more athletic Rey Maualuga

Also worth watching: Doug Hogue, Mike Mohammed, Brian Rolle, Nate Irving, Jonathan Cornell, Brian Duncan, Josh Bynes, Akeem Dent

While it's still a shot in the dark, I get the distinct impression that most pre-draft articles tend to highlight Martez Wilson as the most promising LB prospect for tackle-heavy leagues. Would you agree?

If the latest rumors about him staying in Illinois with the Bears hold any truth, would that dramatically reduce his short-term fantasy value?

'Zdravko said:

While it's still a shot in the dark, I get the distinct impression that most pre-draft articles tend to highlight Martez Wilson as the most promising LB prospect for tackle-heavy leagues. Would you agree? If the latest rumors about him staying in Illinois with the Bears hold any truth, would that dramatically reduce his short-term fantasy value?

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Wilson's scouting reports are a little odd. Near universal agreement that he's a dynamic athlete, but there's an undercurrent of concern about his level of aggressiveness. I'll be watching more highlights of these guys this week, but the reports sort of give an impression of a bull in a china shop at times. I've got a bit of built-in bias against OLBs as stud tacklers, but Wilson could certainly grow into a Dansby, Bulluck, Simmons type of IDP.The Bears certainly aren't a good landing spot for a linebacker (in the short term, anyway). Barring injury, Urlacher and Briggs are the every-down starters for 2011.Also, these lists aren't true NFL draft or IDP rankings. They're loosely tiered into a consensus of the sources I like to use. I like Wilson' upside and he could well become 2011's top IDP prospect of this group, but I'm excited to see where Jones, Foster, Sturdivant and Matthews land.

Openings to Watch

In most seasons, we’re well past the second phase of free agency by late April and each team’s defensive needs are reasonably clear. Obviously, this year is different. Not only will free agency not happen before the draft, but there’s some uncertainty about how the next CBA will treat the league’s restricted free agent classes and tagged players. When the CBA is settled, we may see the largest number of IDP-relevant linebackers change teams in recent memory and there’s room for surprises at the defensive end and safety positions.

Expect to see some cover-your-depth-chart draft selections from some teams, while others give us the first indication of whether they want/can re-sign their own free agents or plan to be major players for whatever big names end up on the market when it opens.

While the crystal ball is murkier this year, there are plenty of situations to watch on draft weekend. Here are a handful of high profile DL opportunities, with the LB and DB positions to follow later this week.

Defensive Line

Cleveland Browns – The Browns will transition to a 4-3 this season after running a 3-4 for the past six years. With Matt Roth likely to test the free agent market, the Browns are extremely shallow at defensive end. If the season started today, Cleveland might line up with Marcus Benard and Brian Schaefering at end. Rookie defensive ends are a dicey IDP proposition, but expect at least one to get lots of playing time early in 2011 here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Kyle Moore was a bust and Stylez White proved again that he’ll struggle when asked to play an expanded role. Raheem Morris wants to play plenty of Tampa-2 coverage and he needs pass rushers to be successful, especially with concerns in the secondary. This is another spot where a rookie could see lots of playing time very early.

New Orleans Saints – Will Smith (30) and Alex Brown (32) were inconsistent last season and Gregg Williams’ defense thrives on pressure. The Saints need another pass rusher to play opposite Smith. Though New Orleans could look to grab a situational hybrid pass rusher to fit their multiple front scheme, a solid two way defensive end prospect would fit the need equally well.

San Diego Chargers – The 3-4 isn’t the most attractive place to look for defensive end prospects, but the Chargers are thin and run a 3-4 that can yield viable statistical production. This draft is ripe with bigger defensive end potentials who can rush the passer. Durability issues have kept Luis Castillo from reaching his DL2 potential, but the right rookie talent would be worth a look here.

St. Louis Rams – The Rams already have an interesting young defensive end behind veteran James Hall in George Selvie, but Steve Spagnoulo’s defenses in New York were flush with pass rushing talent. Expect the Rams to grab at least one prospect to add to their current mix.

Others worth watching: Dallas, San Francisco, Seattle

Linebacker

Cleveland Browns – While he may turn out to be a serviceable run-stopper and potentially grow into a Stewart Bradley type MLB, Chris Gocong doesn’t compare favorably to **** Jauron’s last two middle linebackers (Brian Urlacher and Paul Posluszny). Depth is also an issue, with only the less-than-durable D’Qwell Jackson and Scott Fujita as NFL-ready players at OLB. The Browns have needs everywhere on defense, but keep an eye out for a linebacker prospect (or two) on Friday and Saturday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Bucs seem unlikely to pay Barrett Ruud what it may take to keep him, Quincy Black is a free agent and Geno Hayes has had off-field struggles after a disappointing sophomore season. There are a large number of backers available this year who would fit the Tampa coverage schemes. Even a third or fourth round pick could become a viable IDP option here.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Justin Durant is unlikely to return and free agent Kirk Morrison doesn’t seem like a high priority. Russell Allen is ready to take a larger role (at either MLB or WLB), but the depth chart is wide open after the two veterans.

Baltimore Ravens – This is the fourth season I’ve highlighted the Ravens’ linebacker position in this feature. While there have been interesting names in the mix (Tavares Gooden, Dannell Ellerbee), Ray Lewis has continued to play at an elite level through his age 35 season. Quoted as saying he can’t see himself playing more than another two years, we may see the Ravens begin grooming his successor now. It’s also possible, if not likely, that I’ll be typing this sentence again next year.

Denver Broncos – Joe Mays will get a chance to prove himself at MLB as the Broncos transition to the 4-3. But he’s been inconsistent and is signed only through 2011. Denver’s depth is also suspect. An early round prospect here could move into a key role in 2012 (or possibly sooner).

Detroit Lions – It’s been speculated that the team may want to move DeAndre Levy back outside. There are no ready-made MLB options on the roster and Detroit might consider hedging any potential free agent signings with a rookie to groom sooner than later.

Minnesota Vikings – EJ Henderson is over 30 and wasn’t as dynamic last season after his 2009 leg injury. Jasper Brinkley isn’t an ideal fit for Leslie Frazier’s aggressive mix of 46 and Tampa-2 concepts. The Vikings may be ready to bring an impact rookie into the fold to learn the defense.

New Orleans Saints – Jon Vilma is entrenched inside, but the Saints have shuffled through a number of OLB options in recent seasons. Scott Shanle has been a stable influence, but is now a free agent, and Jonathan Casillas made strides during camp last year only to miss all of 2010 with a Lisfranc injury. If the Saints decide to take a backer early, he’ll be worth watching closely.

St. Louis Rams – James Laurinaitis is the man the middle, but the Rams need help at OLB. The right player might even push Steve Spagnuolo to use more nickel packages and grow into a dual tackle-big play threat.

Prime Rush OLB Opportunity – Buffalo (could use a hybrid talent if they choose a multiple front playbook), Houston (need a body to compete opposite Connor Barwin), Arizona (Haggans/Porter past prime, Schofield promising but unknown), San Francisco

Also worth watching: Indianapolis, Oakland, San Diego, NY Giants, Philadelphia

I notice that you mention Indy. I agree, Brackett and Sessions are getting old. I see Pat Angerer be put in mike, and Conner taking over for Session. What will happen with the Sam spot? Are there any value there?

DBs to Watch

Quinton Carter (6-1, 209 – Oklahoma) – Strong in run support, good tackler. Coverage reads and instincts questionable but passable.

DeAndre McDaniel (6-0, 216 – Clemson) – Has shown flashes of elite play in run support and coverage, but inconsistent. Instinctive, good intangibles.

Rahim Moore (6-0, 201 – UCLA) – Very good cover defender man or zone, strong in run support. Inconsistent tackler, recovery speed may be issue.

Jaiquawn Jarrett (6-0, 199 – Temple) – Aggressive run defender, more powerful than size. Adequate zone instincts with good ball skills. Questionable range and closing speed in coverage.

Jerrard Tarrant (6-0, 203 – Georgia Tech) – Rangy, with good acceleration and recovery. Could cover slot. Not powerful tackler though will play downhill against the run.

There will be a number of other safeties drafted in the middle rounds (Ahmad Black, Tyler Sash, Chris Conte, etc) to consider pending fit and depth chart opportunity.

Patrick Peterson (6-0, 218 – LSU) – Great athlete, should excel in man coverage and be above-average in zone given recovery speed. Strong run supporter.

Prince Amukamara (6-0, 207 – Nebraska) – Has the size and strength to play man, though recovery speed has been questioned. Physical in run support.

Jimmy Smith (6-2, 210 – Colorado) – High upside cover corner with off-field questions, not as sure in run support as other two.

Those are the consensus big three corners to watch. Lots of depth chart opportunity around the league, though, and the rookie corner rule could apply to others after the draft.

'Jene Bramel said:

DBs to Watch

Patrick Peterson (6-0, 218 – LSU) – Great athlete, should excel in man coverage and be above-average in zone given recovery speed. Strong run supporter.

Prince Amukamara (6-0, 207 – Nebraska) – Has the size and strength to play man, though recovery speed has been questioned. Physical in run support.

Jimmy Smith (6-2, 210 – Colorado) – High upside cover corner with off-field questions, not as sure in run support as other two.

Those are the consensus big three corners to watch. Lots of depth chart opportunity around the league, though, and the rookie corner rule could apply to others after the draft.

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Janoris Jenkins is in trouble yet again for pot. Gotta wonder if he'll be in the supplemental draft.Where would you rank among these three?

Are the 3 CBs Akumura, Peterson, and Smith more valuable than Rahim moore in a tackle heavy league.

'JaxBill said:

'Jene Bramel said:

DBs to Watch

Patrick Peterson (6-0, 218 – LSU) – Great athlete, should excel in man coverage and be above-average in zone given recovery speed. Strong run supporter.

Prince Amukamara (6-0, 207 – Nebraska) – Has the size and strength to play man, though recovery speed has been questioned. Physical in run support.

Jimmy Smith (6-2, 210 – Colorado) – High upside cover corner with off-field questions, not as sure in run support as other two.

Those are the consensus big three corners to watch. Lots of depth chart opportunity around the league, though, and the rookie corner rule could apply to others after the draft.

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Janoris Jenkins is in trouble yet again for pot. Gotta wonder if he'll be in the supplemental draft.Where would you rank among these three?

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Haven't seen a scouting report on him from the sources I like to read yet, but from what I know he'd compare favorably. Not as big as these three, but likely at least as physical in run support as Smith. Would probably project as well in man and zone as Amukamara and Smith. I'd probably put Peterson a tier ahead of all three on raw talent and upside, with the rest pretty close together.I'm sure you've seen much more of him than I have. Local buzz suggest he would have been a first rounder this year?

Openings to Watch -- DB

There isn't a clear stud safety on the board this year, but a few teams have spots open on their depth charts.

Baltimore may not re-sign Dawan Landry, who was quietly a consistent DB2/3 before breaking out in 2010. Tom Zbikowski may be a reasonable stop-gap if Landry leaves, but a nice two-way option to groom might be a priority.

Cincinnati, according to Marvin Lewis, is happy to start Chris Crocker and Reggie Nelson this year. Of course they are. Lewis has preferred veteran options in the secondary in recent years and will likely do so again, especially if the team is serious about moving Rey Maualuga to the middle. But durability has been a big issue with Crocker and the depth chart looks extremely thin if Roy Williams, Nedu Ndukwe and Gibril Wilson aren't re-signed (as currently expected).

New York should be looking for help at safety, with Brodney Pool just average and Jim Leonhard recovering from a broken leg. Safeties haven't been huge producers for Rex Ryan, but there's room for a DB3 with upside here.

Dallas likely needs new more athleticism at safety to run Rob Ryan's deep playbook and complicated sub-packages. Akwasi Owusu-Ansah might be the guy, but look for a rookie with upside in the draft that can learn behind a veteran pickup (or take over soon for Gerald Sensabaugh if he's re-signed).

Minnesota is fairly deep at safety (Tyrell Johnson, Husain Abdullah, Madieu Williams and Jamarca Sanford all have starting experience) but all have issues with consistency. The team has talked Johnson up again at times this offseason as a possibility next to Abdullah, but watch for a middle round prospect to follow here.

Philadelphia may not re-sign Quintin Mikell, but Kurt Coleman probably isn't the answer. Mikell has been very productive at times, a solid coverage safety whose good in run support would be a nice fit if the outside linebacker play remains inconsistent.

Also worth watching: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, New Orleans, New York Giants

'sihaokills said:

Are the 3 CBs Akumura, Peterson, and Smith more valuable than Rahim moore in a tackle heavy league.

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Without knowing scheme and opportunity, I'd default to the safety usually. But Peterson has the kind of two-way upside that reminds you of a guy like Charles Woodson or a bigger Antoine Winfield and is almost certain to see immediate playing time. He'd have to rank slightly higher today, but if Moore goes to a team with an immediate need and a shaky front seven, it becomes a different discussion.

'Jene Bramel said:

'JaxBill said:

'Jene Bramel said:

DBs to Watch

Patrick Peterson (6-0, 218 – LSU) – Great athlete, should excel in man coverage and be above-average in zone given recovery speed. Strong run supporter.

Prince Amukamara (6-0, 207 – Nebraska) – Has the size and strength to play man, though recovery speed has been questioned. Physical in run support.

Jimmy Smith (6-2, 210 – Colorado) – High upside cover corner with off-field questions, not as sure in run support as other two.

Those are the consensus big three corners to watch. Lots of depth chart opportunity around the league, though, and the rookie corner rule could apply to others after the draft.

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Janoris Jenkins is in trouble yet again for pot. Gotta wonder if he'll be in the supplemental draft.Where would you rank among these three?

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Haven't seen a scouting report on him from the sources I like to read yet, but from what I know he'd compare favorably. Not as big as these three, but likely at least as physical in run support as Smith. Would probably project as well in man and zone as Amukamara and Smith. I'd probably put Peterson a tier ahead of all three on raw talent and upside, with the rest pretty close together.I'm sure you've seen much more of him than I have. Local buzz suggest he would have been a first rounder this year?

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Yes, most of the local papers were suggesting that he would opt for the draft in January and were surprised that he was passing up a chance to be a first-rounder.

Everybody getting excited for tonight??

At first glance, without a true blue chip defensive end, inside linebacker or safety prospect, tonight looks like it'll be without any impact fantasy prospects. Still, I'm interested to see where a few players end up. There are lots of interesting story lines already.

What happens with Da'Quan Bowers? Considered a sure top five pick early on, it's been rumored that he could fall all the way out of the first round this week and I'm now reading rumors that teams could be willing to consider him in the top half of round one. He's not a truly elite edge rusher, but it's likely the knee situation is overblown. Lots of mocks have him going to Tampa with the 20th pick. We'll see.

Rick Gosselin and some local buzz have Von Miller going to Denver with the second pick. Miller seems like a very questionable fit in a 4-3 scheme or even some hybrid, multiple front. He's almost certainly too small to set the edge in a 4-3 as either a RDE or SLB (and teams will run at him if he lines up at either position) and a top five pick is a high price to pay for a guy who may only be a situational player early if you're playing a scheme that won't allow him to rush the passer on 80-90% of the downs. Will be very surprised if it's Miller over Marcell Dareus there.

3-4 defensive ends and most tweeners generally aren't sexy IDP targets, but it's worth watching what happens to guys like Cameron Jordan, Robert Quinn and Adrian Clayborn tonight. Any one of them (particularly Quinn if he lands with a 4-3 team) could provide better production than most 4-3 ends that need a little Sunday seasoning.

Will Chicago or Indianapolis look at a high upside 3-technique tackle toward the end of the first? Corey Liuget, Marvin Austin might become viable late round rookie targets in either situation.

Might Martez Wilson sneak into the end of the first round and land in a promising statistical role? I think that's pretty unlikely.

Will any cornerback be drafted into such a strong situation that he's deemed a better fantasy target than the safeties likely to be drafted Friday and Saturday?

ETA: Wow. Big news just now that the NFL looks ready to open the league year very soon, with free agency potentially just a few days away. That likely also opens the door for priority rookie free agent signings this weekend or shortly thereafter, too.

Will be updating this thread in real-time all weekend as well as posting plenty of quick thoughts on my Twitter feed. I'm hoping all this labor ping-pong hasn't turned too many folks off.

This weekend is still one of the best football events of the year.

Jene... did you catch the Bill Parcells Draft Special the other night? He had one ILB with a first round grade - Nate Irving from NC State. I know you had him listed as someone to watch up above, but do you have any other thoughts on how he compares to someone like Wilson? I hadn't seen Irving with a first round grade anyplace else.

'blend said:

Jene... did you catch the Bill Parcells Draft Special the other night? He had one ILB with a first round grade - Nate Irving from NC State. I know you had him listed as someone to watch up above, but do you have any other thoughts on how he compares to someone like Wilson? I hadn't seen Irving with a first round grade anyplace else.

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Missed it and forgot to set the DVR. Bummed. Did see a blog post that had his draft board and noted the Irving love.Durability and playing speed are Irving's major issues. Risky bet to hold up in subpackages. If Parcells draft board was set up for a 3-4 team, it's not unreasonable. Opportunity and how high he goes will drive his potential value. Would like his IDP upside much better as a third rounder to a LB needy team than a fifth rounder with an established option or two.

Awesome thread.

Will be spending a lot of time in the Shark Pool FBG chat thread tonight. Still planning to update here where I can.

1.02 -- LB VON MILLER -- Denver Broncos

I was in the minority in a Twitter discussion this afternoon and there's clearly always room for more pass rushers. But I'm not certain Miller is an immediate every-down fit as a 4-3 SLB. Maybe a 4-3 RDE. Could grow into the next Robert Mathis or Keith Bulluck, but it's questionable.

1.03 -- DT MARCELL DAREUS -- Buffalo Bills

Dareus probably slots as a 3-4 DE here, but the Bills have been multiple enough that he'll see time as a DT and a 3-technique on passing downs probably. Can only help Kyle Williams and Paul Posluszny to have an aggressive and active defensive lineman added to the front seven.

1.05 -- CB PATRICK PETERSON -- Arizona Cardinals

Stud corner, very strong in run support, great ball skills. Not worried about the potential shift to safety down the line. We'll see where the safeties go, but Peterson should be a top three IDP option among this year's DB group.

1.07 -- OLB ALDON SMITH -- San Francisco 49ers

Would have liked to have seen Smith go to a 4-3 team for IDP value, but he projects as a solid 3-4 OLB candidate. May not grow into an all-around OLB like James Harrison or Demarcus Ware, but could become a 40-50 solo, double digit sack threat.

1.11 -- DE JJ WATT -- Houston Texans

More 3-4 DE talent here, as the Texans elect to go end over corner and rush OLB. Be interesting to see what's left for them at those positions in the second round and beyond. Likely not too much statistical value, but worth watching as he's got some pass rush upside and should get a chance to play early. May also get a chance to play some 3-technique as Wade Phillips likes to use a 4-2-5 nickel package with Mario Williams and Connor Barwin outside.

1.13 -- DT NICK FAIRLEY -- Detroit Lions

Nice spot for Fairley to fall. If you think Fairley is ready to be a consistent stud, whomever ends up at MLB in Detroit will have plenty of room to flow to the ball. Fairley's upside is limited a bit by the talent around him, but he's got DT2 potential.

1.14 -- DE ROBERT QUINN -- St. Louis Rams

Aldon Smith didn't land with a 4-3 team, but Quinn does. The brain tumor didn't cause a huge slip in the draft and probably won't keep him from slotting alongside Bowers as the prospective 1 and 1a DE rookie prospects. Should get plenty of time opposite Long right away.

1.16 -- OLB RYAN KERRIGAN -- Washington Redskins

Some bust risk here and another guy who needs some work to become an all-around backer, but Kerrigan is a high motor pass rusher who should find a nice role in Jim Haslett's 3-4. Another tweener to 3-4 OLB.

Feel like I'm talking to myself tonight. Stupid lockout/CBA.

'Jene Bramel said:

Feel like I'm talking to myself tonight. Stupid lockout/CBA.

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Trust me, with every pick I can't wait to see your analysis. Hell, I even copy them into a word doc so I can refer to them easily later. You're very appreciated.

1.16 -- OLB RYAN KERRIGAN -- Washington Redskins

Some bust risk here and another guy who needs some work to become an all-around backer, but Kerrigan is a high motor pass rusher who should find a nice role in Jim Haslett's 3-4. Another tweener to 3-4 OLB.

1.18 -- COREY LIUGET -- San Diego Chargers

Would have loved to see Liuget as a 3-tech with Chicago or Indy, but Liuget can handle the 1-gap 3-4 DE position, too. Hurts his potential upside here, though. Unlikely to move inside with Garay breaking out at NT last year.

1.19 -- CB PRINCE AMUKAMARA -- New York Giants

Not good news for either Terrell Thomas or Corey Webster as the Giants take the best player available on their board. Certainly could be another Kyle Wilson situation, and there's always room for three strong corners (depending on what you think of Thomas/Webster). Value dependent on playing time.

Good stuff Jene!

I also don't get the DEN Miller pick when they could have added Dareus as an anchor of their DL for years to come.

...I also subscribe to the philosophy that that DE/DTs are more valuable commodities in the 1st round than LBs.

1.20 -- DE ADRIAN CLAYBORN -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa passing on Bowers isn't surprising if they liked another DL better. Very surprised that it's Clayborn and not Cameron Jordan, though. Lots of opportunity and Clayborn should be solid against the run. Clayborn and Quinn nice prospects for IDP guys for sure.

'Jene Bramel said:

Feel like I'm talking to myself tonight. Stupid lockout/CBA.

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Definitely not the case; we appreciate it. Keep it up!

1.21 -- DT PHIL TAYLOR -- Cleveland Browns

Taylor is a very nice DT prospect -- but he looks much more like a 3-4 NT than 4-3 DT. With the Browns moving to the 4-3 this year, it's interesting. Jauron usually likes his pass rush to come from the front four with little blitzing, making Taylor an unusual call, too. Doubt Taylor plays in subpackages, which also makes the trade up to grab him odd. But Taylor helps stop the run, which could be an issue without many options in the front seven. And he could be, like Fairley, most impactful in the box scores to the MLB (Gocong or a pick to come).

1.24 -- DE CAMERON JORDAN -- New Orleans Saints

This group of IDP DE prospects is looking better and better -- and we haven't seen where Bowers will land yet. Jordan is a great fit for the variations of pressure schemes Gregg Williams likes to use. Can function as a LDE in either the 4-3 or 3-4 and would allow the Saints to use any number of subpackages with Ellis inside.

Mark Dominik saying that Adrian Clayborn is the RDE. Whether that means Stylez White is done, moving to LDE or back to a situational role isn't clear yet. Apparently Clayborn was the priority target all along. Bodes very well for his playing time.

1.27 -- CB JIMMY SMITH -- Baltimore Ravens

Not particularly excited about Smith or Amukamara at first blush here. Smith not a great run defender, generally not a scheme to give a lot of run support opportunity anyway. Boom-bust IDP prospect. If he breaks out, he'll be a prime sell high under the rookie corner rule.

1.30 -- DL MUHAMMAD WILKERSON -- New York Jets

Likely to slot at DE. Very good player but similar statistical upside to Liuget with SD, which isn't much more than a matchup DL3 probably.

1.31 -- DL CAMERON HEYWARD -- Pittsburgh Steelers

Lots and lots and lots of defensive linemen to sort through in the first round. Another strong 3-4 defensive end prospect, but Heyward is closer to Watt in pass rush upside than guys like Wilkerson and Liuget. Name to watch over the long term in deeper leagues.