wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
thanks man
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Dynasty Rankings (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter wiscstlatlmia
- Start date
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
Vincent Jackson is younger than I thought. He looks much older.
Chad Johnson is too high. I would rather have every other player in his tier (maybe not Evans). I also believe Bradford is ranked too high. I would rather have Freeman, Schaub, and Locker over him. I have really soured on Bradford's prospects and have come to terms with the fact I am probably wrong in thinking he is a young superstar.
Chad Johnson is too high. I would rather have every other player in his tier (maybe not Evans). I also believe Bradford is ranked too high. I would rather have Freeman, Schaub, and Locker over him. I have really soured on Bradford's prospects and have come to terms with the fact I am probably wrong in thinking he is a young superstar.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I'm giving Bradford and the whole Rams offense a mulligan on the year. Young offensive skill players + Josh McDaniels + complex new offense + no offseason = Disaster.'Dr. Awesome said:
Of course now that McDaniels has been shown the door, a whole new offense will be coming to town. At least they'll have a full offseason to implement it.
az_prof
Footballguy
Overall, your rankings are pretty reasonable. But I do have a few questions.
1) Why is Roth at 12, below Rivers (who really regressed this year) and Eli and Romo?
2) Jonathan Stewart at 16--below Beanie, Reggie Bush, Lynch, Matthews, and Spiller. You would really trade Stewart for any of those guys?
3) Murray at 21? Yes, he had an injury but so did ADP and Charles, both of whom are ranked higher. The guy looked like the real deal to me. Not sure where he goes given the injury, but definitely quite a bit higher.
4) Michael Bush (likely a starter somewhere next year and in PPR a top 12 back this year) at 29 and Deangelo Williams (yes, he had a down year but is still talented and relatively young) at 30? There are alot of backs above them that have much more questions marks and less upside.
5) Like most dynasty rankers, you rank Brandon Marshall too low. Look at how consistent he has been over his whole career, and even the last two years with arguably one of the worst QB situations in football, he has still produced. He is 28, the same age as Jennings. You rank Marshall at 11 and Jennings at 5, at the top of the tier above Marshall. But if you compare their career numbers as starters Marshall stands head and shoulders higher. Over the past 5 seasons as a full season starter, Marshall has averaged 95 receptions, 1187 yards, and 6.4 TDs. Jennings, over the past 4 seasons as a full time starter, has averaged 72 receptions, 1154 yards, and 8.5 TDs. Yes, he has the advantage in TDs, a highly variable stat, but he has had one of the best QBs in the game tossing him the rock. Even if Marshall's situation does not improve, which is possible but not likely, I don't see how Jennings can be a whole tier better.
1) Why is Roth at 12, below Rivers (who really regressed this year) and Eli and Romo?
2) Jonathan Stewart at 16--below Beanie, Reggie Bush, Lynch, Matthews, and Spiller. You would really trade Stewart for any of those guys?
3) Murray at 21? Yes, he had an injury but so did ADP and Charles, both of whom are ranked higher. The guy looked like the real deal to me. Not sure where he goes given the injury, but definitely quite a bit higher.
4) Michael Bush (likely a starter somewhere next year and in PPR a top 12 back this year) at 29 and Deangelo Williams (yes, he had a down year but is still talented and relatively young) at 30? There are alot of backs above them that have much more questions marks and less upside.
5) Like most dynasty rankers, you rank Brandon Marshall too low. Look at how consistent he has been over his whole career, and even the last two years with arguably one of the worst QB situations in football, he has still produced. He is 28, the same age as Jennings. You rank Marshall at 11 and Jennings at 5, at the top of the tier above Marshall. But if you compare their career numbers as starters Marshall stands head and shoulders higher. Over the past 5 seasons as a full season starter, Marshall has averaged 95 receptions, 1187 yards, and 6.4 TDs. Jennings, over the past 4 seasons as a full time starter, has averaged 72 receptions, 1154 yards, and 8.5 TDs. Yes, he has the advantage in TDs, a highly variable stat, but he has had one of the best QBs in the game tossing him the rock. Even if Marshall's situation does not improve, which is possible but not likely, I don't see how Jennings can be a whole tier better.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Agreed. It is really hard to judge the two in relation to the other, based on there play with Tebow. The bulk of Tebow's passing yards came from him scrambling and WRs coming back to the ball. If Decker is going deep more often (keep in mind Tebow is scared to throw deep), he has less opportunity for a catch. Tebow is destroying Decker's value and as long as he is there, Thomas is the better option. Long term, I like Decker, but only because of his sample size with Orton/early Tebow, which Thomas didn't get a chance have.'thriftyrocker said:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Have to agree here. Murray is legit and was one of the most productive RBs in the NFL when healhty.Look at Dallas' season - it is directly tied to Murray.They struggled early, until Murray proved he could carry the load as a lead back. They then go on a tear. He gets hurt, their season goes down the drain. Murry is a HUGE buy low, if his accepted value is anywhere below the top 10.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Not arguing against Murray here, but this is textbook correlation <> causation stuff.Games Murray had 25+ touches (5 Wins - 0 Losses)Win @ WAS (5-11)Win SEA (7-9)Win BUF (6-10)Win MIA (6-10)Win STL (2-14)Games Murray had <13 touches (3 Wins - 8 Losses)Loss @ ARI (8-8)Loss @ NWE (13-3)Loss @ NYG (9-7)Loss @ NYJ (8-8)Loss @ PHI (8-8)Win @ SFO (13-3)Win @ TAM (4-12)Loss DET (10-6)Loss NYG (9-7)Loss PHI (8-8)Win WAS (5-11)Looks to me like the Cowboys beat bad teams, with or without Murray, and lost to .500+ teams, with or without Murray. And the only glaring exception, away to the 49ers, happened in a game where Murray didn't have a big role.
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fridayfrenzy
Footballguy
FALSEIt is tied to the opponent's record. Not Murray.
It just so happened that Murray played the cream puff part of the schedule.
Murray will be too expensive in dynasty leagues for me. People look at Murray's stats and disregard that it was a perfect storm scenario. He had the opportunity because of injuries and it lined up in the part of the schedule vs bad teams with poor rushing defenses.
On a per fantasy point/snap basis, Murray did not show he was much better than Felix Jones. Article comparing Jones and Murray. http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/12/10/fantasy-the-contrarian-demarco-murray-v-felix-jones/
Food for thought....Murray did not rush for over 32 yards versus a team with a winning record.
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wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
I was going to say something like this. It's not that I dont like Murray, In fact I thought he was one of the best rookie value picks around last year. The problem is Felix Jones is signed through next year and Jerry Jones loves the kid. Jones also played pretty well this year when he was given the opportunity or wasn't injured. I also not in the boat that Murray is a top 10 talent at the position either, so I think his value is a lot more volatile compared to all the guys I had ranked ahead of him. I've always loved Dallas for RB situation and if Murray can somehow get the job to himself, he will probably break the top ten. until that point though, I'm not willing to go all in on Murray just yet.
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
1. As much as people think Rivers had an awful year, he was still above average for a NFL QB and I have enough faith in what hes shown me over the past 6 years or so that he will bounce back next year. I think Romo has proven to be a consistently better fantasy QB over the years and plays with much more weapons on offense. Eli and Ben are very similar to me and essentially the same value, I wouldn't necessarily say that one definitely is higher than the other, but for now I like Eli' situation over Ben so I ranked accordingly. 2. Yes, at this point I'm officially slowing down on Stewart, I'm so frustrated with his situation beyond belief. As I have said many times I think Stewart is an elite talent, but Carolina has shown me time and again they have no faith in him being the workhorse back. I dont think 16 is that low considering hes the #2 back on his own team, in fact I would say thats pretty high praise for him. When it comes down to it, he is just a flex option until further notice, not even to mention the fact that Newton is a TD vulture. One thing this year that impressed me about stewart is he showed the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, something that was in question before. Sky is the limit for him, lets hope he leaves in free agency after next year! o...another side note. Stewart Ranked 23 in .5 PPR this year for RBs... on 178 total touches, thats incredible. 3. Answered in the post before 4. I just do not see any upside with Deangelo Williams on Carolina. Unless both Stewart and Newton get hurt, he is nothing more than a RB3/ flex guy, only way he gets TDs is on long runs and hes only getting 8-14 carries game as it is. In a year and your telling me Stewart is leaving , then I would move him up , but hes getting up there in age as wellMichael Bush kinda disappointed me this year, he got his opportunity and played alright, but hes not what I thought he was. Sure, if he gets in the right situation he has 1100 yards and possibly 10 TD potential. He also has pretty solid hands for a RB, but what concerns me is lack of explosion as a runner. I'm not sure any NFL team is drooling to sign Bush as the feature back for their team right now. It could happen, but I could also see him going to a team and being a part time RBBC runner.5. Dont get me wrong, I love Marshalls talent. Based on pure talent I would take him over Roddy, Nicks, Dez and even as you mentioned Jennings. But the thing is, those guys are close enough talent wise and dont have half the risk of Marshall. Marshall is a head case on and off the field and hes a guy on your roster that you have to constantly worry about. Who knows, If he has matured down in Miami I would agree he needs to be higher. If Miami goes and gets a QB , Marshall could be top 5-10 for years to come, He just worries me.
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Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
Not to nit pick, but you said until Murray proved he could carry the load. Did he really? Obviously he looked great and put up some huge games, but he also went down with an injury, which was probably his biggest knock coming into the league. As Cecil said all last summer, he's a thoroughbred, but can he stay healthy? Until he proves he can, he won't prove to me at least that he can carry the load.
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
Just looking at the positional rankings, it's crazy how much the NFL has changed in the recent years from running to passing. As a result there are so many good wrs and so few rbs comparatively speaking. I mean beanie wells at 8 and denarious Moore at 28 really shows the lack of quality fantasy rbs in the league today and the amount of depth at the wr position
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
In the land of RBBC that we live in now, I see Wells as one of the few guys that will get 250+ carries barring something horrible happening next year. Beanie is also one of the few RBs left with exclusive goal line duty. 1.The Cardinals played a tough schedule this year (AFC north) and it will all but certainly get easier next year. 2. I actually like the addition of Ryan Williams as it gives a change of pace to the offense that it so desperately needed this year. I think Wells needs a Robin to his Batman for him to stay healthy for 16 games. The better the Cardinals offense moves the ball and the more goal line opportunities they get, they better for Wells as a whole, even if it means losing out on a few more carries per game. I think you can definitely say goodbye to LeRod Stephens howling's fantasy potential though...
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RavenLunatic
Footballguy
Jeff Tefertiller added his positional rankings (QB, RB, WR, TE) today:
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=qb&type=dynasty&howrecent=35
Much higher on Mikel LeShoure, Mark Ingram and Ryan Williams than Matt Waldman.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=qb&type=dynasty&howrecent=35
Much higher on Mikel LeShoure, Mark Ingram and Ryan Williams than Matt Waldman.
Donsmith753
Footballguy
That Leshoure ranking is a joke and immediately puts me off wanting to read the rest.
Jeff Tefertiller
Footballguy
Where would you have LeShoure?
Multiple Scores
Footballguy
Ben over stafford is a head scratcher.
Donsmith753
Footballguy
In no particular order, after these guys (atleast):
Rice
Peterson
Foster
Forte
McCoy
MJD
Charles
McFadden
Matthews
CJ
Mendenhall
Ingram
Stewart
Murray
Bradshaw
Gore
Hillis
Bush
Spiller
Sproles
Lynch (31? Really)
Wells
Certainly not at 12 considering we have no idea how he'll recover from his injury and he hasn't played a down in the NFL.
Rice
Peterson
Foster
Forte
McCoy
MJD
Charles
McFadden
Matthews
CJ
Mendenhall
Ingram
Stewart
Murray
Bradshaw
Gore
Hillis
Bush
Spiller
Sproles
Lynch (31? Really)
Wells
Certainly not at 12 considering we have no idea how he'll recover from his injury and he hasn't played a down in the NFL.
Jeff Tefertiller
Footballguy
This is dynasty so I try not to overreact to great (or poor) seasons. I like Stafford a lot, just would like to see him do it another year. If he duplicates this season, he will be top three for me this time next year.
Jeff Tefertiller
Footballguy
You have him in early 20s and I have him at 12. I have had LeShoure high all season. The reports are positive on his recovery. After the top ten or so, there is a dropoff for me. My rankings would look much different in buckets instead of numbers. I still like LeShoure and his upside. Not to mention, how many listed are coming off major injuries of their own?
RavenLunatic
Footballguy
Jeff--First I forgot to say thanks for posting your rankings!
Can you share your rationale in ranking LeShoure & Ingram high (RB1) vs your rational for Stafford's lower ranking? Neither has produced at this level yet either due to injury or a combination of situation and injury.
Not to knock your rankings (you guys invite abuse just by posting them) but is it because RBs are so valuable you need to buy on the potential and can afford to be more discriminating with QBs?
I'm really curious about your thoughts on Ingram and Ryan Williams (especially his ranking over Wells).
Thanks!!!
Can you share your rationale in ranking LeShoure & Ingram high (RB1) vs your rational for Stafford's lower ranking? Neither has produced at this level yet either due to injury or a combination of situation and injury.
Not to knock your rankings (you guys invite abuse just by posting them) but is it because RBs are so valuable you need to buy on the potential and can afford to be more discriminating with QBs?
I'm really curious about your thoughts on Ingram and Ryan Williams (especially his ranking over Wells).
Thanks!!!
Jeff Tefertiller
Footballguy
First of all, these are non-PPR rankings. This is why a RB like Sproles is not higher. Ingram, same as Stafford in that I do not want to overreact. Payton had several quoted mid/late in year saying it was his fault for the lack of use (Ingram). I will confess that all NO Rbs worry me some in dynasty since Sproles, Thomas, and Ingram are under contract for three more seasons. I like Ingram's talent and foresee the Saints using the power running game with the lead more and more, especially if one or two of the WRs walk in free agency.On Wells, not really a fan. I much prefer Williams' upside. Given the timing of Williams' injury, he should be back by training camp. So the Wells/Williams rankings are a reflection of liking Williams and not Wells.The same goes for LeShoure. In non-PPR, I see the Lion offense allowing Kevin Smith some huge games so a healthy LeShoure could be huge. On Stafford, he has loads of potential. Just want to see him do it again. I think my dynasty success (playing) and teams speak for themselves. These rankings are how I would draft if a draft was today.
Donsmith753
Footballguy
That's the guys I'd have over him at first glance. Firstly, let me thank you for atleast putting some rankings up
didn't mean to come across as aggressive.Perhaps I'm not that risk averse but Wells in the 40's, Lynch in the 30's and Leshoure at 12 just doesn't sit right with me.Maybe it would look better in Tiers.
Jeff Tefertiller
Footballguy
Wells is the type of player I avoid in dynasty. He offers little as a starter and has no real upside. So, his ranking reflects the thought that I would not want him as a RB4 in dynasty. Lynch's is more that he is a RB3 to me. I know he was red hot to finish the season. I get that. But, what will the Seattle offense look like next season? Lynch was all they had down the stretch. I just would not want him as an every-week starter in non-ppr. I know some love him. That is ok. These differences are the reason the ice cream store has more flavors than vanilla and chocolate. Since I value Lynch and Wells lower than most, they will never be on my teams. I can see that is how LeShoure is for some. It is all good.That's the guys I'd have over him at first glance. Firstly, let me thank you for atleast putting some rankings up
RavenLunatic
Footballguy
Thanks! I feel the same way about Ryan Williams. Eyeball test just screams potential and he is a baby. It is the same reason I was so impressed with Spiller during his "audition" at the end of the year. He looked very strong, very fast and is young. Ingram hasn't produced but his highlights say something else is there in waiting and can only imagine how it will look over a whole game. I'm no scout but this looks impressive and not an average plodder:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YSHw1wUvlI
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wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
Wells offers no upside? to each his own I suppose, 1000 yards and 10 TDs isn't bad production for being hurt for most of the year.Wells is the type of player I avoid in dynasty. He offers little as a starter and has no real upside. So, his ranking reflects the thought that I would not want him as a RB4 in dynasty. Lynch's is more that he is a RB3 to me. I know he was red hot to finish the season. I get that. But, what will the Seattle offense look like next season? Lynch was all they had down the stretch. I just would not want him as an every-week starter in non-ppr. I know some love him. That is ok. These differences are the reason the ice cream store has more flavors than vanilla and chocolate. Since I value Lynch and Wells lower than most, they will never be on my teams. I can see that is how LeShoure is for some. It is all good.That's the guys I'd have over him at first glance. Firstly, let me thank you for atleast putting some rankings up
DoubleG
Footballguy
Wells offers no upside? to each his own I suppose, 1000 yards and 10 TDs isn't bad production for being hurt for most of the year.Wells is the type of player I avoid in dynasty. He offers little as a starter and has no real upside. So, his ranking reflects the thought that I would not want him as a RB4 in dynasty. Lynch's is more that he is a RB3 to me. I know he was red hot to finish the season. I get that. But, what will the Seattle offense look like next season? Lynch was all they had down the stretch. I just would not want him as an every-week starter in non-ppr. I know some love him. That is ok. These differences are the reason the ice cream store has more flavors than vanilla and chocolate. Since I value Lynch and Wells lower than most, they will never be on my teams. I can see that is how LeShoure is for some. It is all good.That's the guys I'd have over him at first glance. Firstly, let me thank you for atleast putting some rankings up
IMHO, Wells will be all over dynasty ranking boards this off-season. Some believe that this past season was just the tip of the iceberg in terms of his talent and development. Others think he's 23 going on 30 and injury prone - with a hoped-to-be healthy Williams waiting in the wings to snatch the starting job from him.wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
Have to agree here, seems like there is no in-between with this guy. Obviously we know which side I'm on, but time will tell.Wells offers no upside? to each his own I suppose, 1000 yards and 10 TDs isn't bad production for being hurt for most of the year.Wells is the type of player I avoid in dynasty. He offers little as a starter and has no real upside. So, his ranking reflects the thought that I would not want him as a RB4 in dynasty. Lynch's is more that he is a RB3 to me. I know he was red hot to finish the season. I get that. But, what will the Seattle offense look like next season? Lynch was all they had down the stretch. I just would not want him as an every-week starter in non-ppr. I know some love him. That is ok. These differences are the reason the ice cream store has more flavors than vanilla and chocolate. Since I value Lynch and Wells lower than most, they will never be on my teams. I can see that is how LeShoure is for some. It is all good.That's the guys I'd have over him at first glance. Firstly, let me thank you for atleast putting some rankings up
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Id trade Stewart for Spiller and Mathews, easily. Bush and Lynch not so much. Beanie is iffy.
jeter23
Footballguy
It is so difficult for a staffer/expert to publish dynasty rankings. There are really two ways they can go.
1. Rank according to exactly how they feel/view players. This results in rankings like Jeff's ranking of LeShoure and Matt's ranking of Julio.
2. Produce and publish "cookie cutter" rankings that could be found on any site, anywhere
To me, it is easy to decide which I prefer. I get nothing out of seeing rankings that anyone could throw together in just a few minutes. I would much rather see rankings that make me reevaluate my ranking of specific players.
FBG provides us with a terrific outlet as we have access to question staffers and they can often respond. I am not sure why some feel the need to call these guys out. I think many welcome the questioning and have answers to support their ranking, but this might not continue if some choose to be harsh with criticism.
1. Rank according to exactly how they feel/view players. This results in rankings like Jeff's ranking of LeShoure and Matt's ranking of Julio.
2. Produce and publish "cookie cutter" rankings that could be found on any site, anywhere
To me, it is easy to decide which I prefer. I get nothing out of seeing rankings that anyone could throw together in just a few minutes. I would much rather see rankings that make me reevaluate my ranking of specific players.
FBG provides us with a terrific outlet as we have access to question staffers and they can often respond. I am not sure why some feel the need to call these guys out. I think many welcome the questioning and have answers to support their ranking, but this might not continue if some choose to be harsh with criticism.
az_prof
Footballguy
Fair enough, but then this ranking has DMAC at RB4, and he also has not proven that he can carry the load without getting hurt.
az_prof
Footballguy
I could see Matthews maybe. But Spiller couldn't beat out an old Jackson. He looked ok this year but I like the talent I have seen from Stewart more and I am not at all sure Spiller will be a featured back any sooner than Stewart.
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
Fred Jackson was a stud this year, I promise you.
midnight_green81
Footballguy
People really underestimate Fred Jackson.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Fred was studly no doubt, but he is over 30 and coming off a broken wheel.Spiller played really well the guy had over 5.0 ypc and looked the part. Im guessing its full blown RBBC next year and that they (Buff) dont pay Fjax what he thinks he's worth and he walks.
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
Yup, I would imagine next year would be a RBBC, but thats no knock on Spiller IMO. Totally different backs and they both bring a lot to the table. The thing with Spiller is, he only needs 10-12 touches a game to have a big game. Love Stewart, just gotta wait and see with him, Spillers future is much less cloudy with about the same talent.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Williams will be 29 in 3 months, that's pretty old for a RB. He doesn't get a heck of a lot of carries anymore between Newton and Stewart on the team. I think that ranking was very generous. He is talented, that I agree with - but too many other factors working against him at this point.
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wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
Well, It about that time of year. I'm doing another start up dynasty, no better way to find out how people value guys than to do a start up.
I started a blog a few days ago
Lots of highlight tapes, stats and player breakdowns if that stuff interests you.
I will also be posting the draft round by round
http://profoundsportssound.blogspot.com
Pretty cool stuff, check it out!
this is round 1:
http://profoundsportssound.blogspot.com/2012/02/dynasty-start-up-round-1.html
I started a blog a few days ago
Lots of highlight tapes, stats and player breakdowns if that stuff interests you.
I will also be posting the draft round by round
http://profoundsportssound.blogspot.com
Pretty cool stuff, check it out!
this is round 1:
http://profoundsportssound.blogspot.com/2012/02/dynasty-start-up-round-1.html
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Thanks for posting, wisc.
I would have #### my pants, being the 5/6 owners and watching McCoy/Rice fall to me.
I would have #### my pants, being the 5/6 owners and watching McCoy/Rice fall to me.
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
Yea, its a very interesting debate... can you really go wrong with Rice or McCoy anywhere in the top 5 or 6? Not In my opinion. going to be a wide variety of drafts this year and they way they pan out. I still think all of the first 13 picks are pretty secure players right now though.I see Newton as the guy that will rise and fall the most in drafts, but remains to be seen
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RavenLunatic
Footballguy
Thanks for sharing.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
s in that round.
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MJD late in the 3rd is a bit WTF...makes me question some of the people in this draft. I would rather have MJD over lots of the 2nd round players right now.
