Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Where's Otis? Get in here Oats.
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Mark Ingram (2 Viewers)
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Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Please don't. Then I have to hijack this thread on the emphasis placed on Josh "hawkskreetch" McCown.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
"15 carries and a couple of receptions" is 17 touches, not 15.
Anyway, volume is a useful component of RB success, but hardly a necessary component. Knowshon Moreno was a top-5 fantasy back last year with 18.8 touches per game. In 2012, Spiller ranked 27th with 15.6 touches per game. Jamaal Charles had 17.2 touches per game in 2010.
I guess let's look at this from another angle: if volume is a necessary component of any successful RB, who would we put ahead of Ingram? There are seven guys getting 20+ touches per game right now- Murray, Foster, Forte, Bell, McCoy, Ellington, and Rashad Jennings, who has been on the shelf for a while now. After last night's game, Ingram sits 8th with 19.2 touches per game. Giovani Bernard (18.7 touches per game) and Marshawn Lynch (18.3 touches per game) are literally the only other players in the NFL getting even 18 touches per game. After that you've got Branden Oliver at 17.7, which will drop when Mathews comes back. You've got Ben Tate at 17.4, which will probably drop as Crowell and West get more experience. Ronnie Hillman is at 17.2, but Ball was at 16.0 and it'd be silly to think his return wouldn't impact Hillman's touches at all. Richardson's at 17.1, but he's being outplayed by Bradshaw. Lamar Miller? 16.4. Eddie Lacy? 15.8 touches per game. Jamaal Charles? 15.3- that one's going to rise.
The point is, if we define a "successful RB" as one who finishes in the top 12, and if volume is a necessary component of success, then we're only going to have 6-10 top-12 backs this year. Or, alternately, we can acknowledge that several backs are going to manage to get into the top 12 despite sharing the field and having their total touches capped, and if we acknowledge that then why not Ingram? He's 14th right now in standard scoring despite only playing five games.
Ditka Butkus
Footballguy
Not to mention he looks like one of the best Rb's in the league the last two weeks and statistics will probably bear that out after this weeks games.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
For the YPC crowd: over the last five days, Mark Ingram has 54/272/3 rushing (plus 2/13/0 receiving), which is still good for 5.04 yards per carry.
For the volume stats crowd: Ingram's already topped his totals from last year for carries and rushing yards, set a new career high in touchdowns, and is one target shy of matching his career best there, too. He's also yet to fumble, for what that's worth. (Khiry has two already.)
For the volume stats crowd: Ingram's already topped his totals from last year for carries and rushing yards, set a new career high in touchdowns, and is one target shy of matching his career best there, too. He's also yet to fumble, for what that's worth. (Khiry has two already.)
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Harstad continues to own this thread. Thanks again for all the data and insights, Adam.
I Am the Stig
Footballguy
If volume doesn't matter then show me Lamar Miller's plus 20 point game of the season. The bottom line is if you are not getting volume then you need touchdowns. But, more volume generally leads to both yards and touchdowns. Some backs simply need volume, Lacy, Ingram, Gore, Lynch etc.
RBs ranked 6-10 with less volume are statistically closer to the RBs ranked 11-15 then they are the RBs ranked 1-5.
Jamaal Charles finished number 1 last year through an increase in Volume.
Nice fantasy scores come with 15-16 touches. Elite fantasy scores come with plus 17-18 touches.
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Henry Ford
Footballguy
Ingram's greatest strength, in my opinion, is ball security. He lost two fumbles in his career - unfortunately, one was in his second game in the league and one was in a playoff game against the Seahawks. So a number of Saints fans don't realize just how good he is at holding onto the ball.
Over 440 carries, 2 fumbles. Pretty spectacular rate.
shader
Footballguy
Looking forward to the return of Khiry and Pierre...
Pierre is simply going to replace the Travis Cadet role. Even this year, when Pierre was healthy, he's only been getting 5 carries a game. Granted, that's a few more than Cadet, but it's not super significant.
Khiry Robinson is the wildcard here. I think the Saints have made a decision to run the ball, which is smart. It's not a coincidence that they have ridden Ingram like Demarco the past two games, and they have won them both, including a road game against a tough defense.
If you give khiry 5-7 carries a game, and you give Pierre 5 carries a game, that eats into Ingram's carries without question. In the first two games of the year, Ingram had 12 carries a game, Khiry had 7 and Pierre had 5. So basically Ingram was getting half of the carries.
I think the Saints should move to giving Ingram 75% of the carries. That probably means giving Pierre 2-3 and letting him focus on pass receptions. It also means only allowing Khiry on the field for one series a game. Whether that happens is anyone's guess. I still don't have a lot of confidence in Payton, once he gets his other two RB's back. He's kind of been forced to do this. When I see all 3 healthy, and Ingram still getting 20 carries, I'll relax.
Pierre is simply going to replace the Travis Cadet role. Even this year, when Pierre was healthy, he's only been getting 5 carries a game. Granted, that's a few more than Cadet, but it's not super significant.
Khiry Robinson is the wildcard here. I think the Saints have made a decision to run the ball, which is smart. It's not a coincidence that they have ridden Ingram like Demarco the past two games, and they have won them both, including a road game against a tough defense.
If you give khiry 5-7 carries a game, and you give Pierre 5 carries a game, that eats into Ingram's carries without question. In the first two games of the year, Ingram had 12 carries a game, Khiry had 7 and Pierre had 5. So basically Ingram was getting half of the carries.
I think the Saints should move to giving Ingram 75% of the carries. That probably means giving Pierre 2-3 and letting him focus on pass receptions. It also means only allowing Khiry on the field for one series a game. Whether that happens is anyone's guess. I still don't have a lot of confidence in Payton, once he gets his other two RB's back. He's kind of been forced to do this. When I see all 3 healthy, and Ingram still getting 20 carries, I'll relax.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I never said that volume doesn't matter. I disagreed with the idea that volume is necessary. Touchdowns aren't necessary, either- Calvin Johnson was the #1 fantasy receiver in 2012 despite hitting paydirt just five times all year- but that doesn't mean they don't matter. Volume alone is neither necessary nor sufficient for fantasy RB1 production.
The rest of it is just jousting at strawmen. You make a compelling case that Mark Ingram probably won't be this year's Jamaal Charles or Adrian Peterson. He's probably not going to be a top-5 fantasy back the rest of the way. These would be very salient points if anyone was actually arguing that he would be. What I see is a bunch of Ingram fans talking about how he can be a low-end top-10 or top-12 fantasy back the rest of the way. In my post that you initially quoted, I explicitly said "I'm valuing him as a low-end RB1 the rest of the way." (Quote verbatim, emphasis added.)
And yes, those low-end RB1s are closer to the high-end RB2s than they are to the true league-dominating studs, but... so what? There aren't very many of those league-dominating studs to go around, so the fact that Ingram likely won't be one of them is no particular knock on him. He's a decent enough fantasy RB1 in a season where those guys have been exceedingly hard to come by. And criticisms of his volume are meaningless in a vacuum. There are only 14 players in the NFL who are getting even 17 touches per game right now, and several of those guys are also timeshare guys like Ingram. It's not like there are alternatives out there who are likely to get more touches than Ingram does going forward, even if they could do as much with the touches they did get.
karmarooster
Footballguy
Not quite sure of your point here, but Ingram is getting a lot of touchdowns due to his usage near the goal line in an offense that (at least at home) gets down the field frequently. 6 TDs in 5 games this year, as well as 1 TD in the playoffs last year (only 1 TD last regular season, however).
Does anyone have Ingram last 16 games stats handy? Or Last year playoffs + this season prorated to 16?
karmarooster
Footballguy
Up until the end of last season, Ingram hasn't given Payton a reason to feed him. Payton is a fine offensive coach, so I'm going to assume a rational one, and one that can easily recognize his best RB and that his best RB is particularly effective when he builds up carries over a game and wears them down.
As Matt Waldman made the comparison, he's an oven, not a microwave (was that the analogy?) and gets better over the course of the game.
shader
Footballguy
TheFanatic
Footballguy
I loves me some small, slow RB's! 
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Last 16 games: 177/932/8 rushing (5.27 ypc) and 18/133/0 receiving (26 targets)
Last 7 games pro-rated: 265/1319/16 rushing (4.98 ypc) and 25/149/0 receiving (41 targets)
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Week 10 last year vs. Dallas, Ingram went 14/145 with 1 TD and 2/15 receiving. The next week he got 6 carries and 1 reception in a back and forth close game while Thomas got 16 touches.
In the wildcard playoff game against Philly, Ingram went 18/97 with 1 TD and 3/17 receiving. The next week he got 10 carries and zero receptions while Robinson got 14 touches.
Week 1 this year he went 13/60 and 2 TDs with 1/1 receiving. Week 2 he got 11 carries and 1 reception while Robinson and Thomas combined for 14 touches.
IMO he's given Payton reasons to feed him, but instead he's given him fewer touches after his big games.
shader
Footballguy
I Am the Stig
Footballguy
I think we are splitting hairs. I said "volume was a necessary component of any successful RB".
What "successful" means is where the point went off the rails. I should have stated more along the lines of "elite" or "top 5" production to be more clear.
That said, I do feel that volume is the great separator between consistent elite fantasy numbers and real stats versus nice fantasy numbers and real stats.
A successful RB used to mean a 1000-1200 yard season rushing. This equates to 62 yards per game with a average YPC of 4 on 15 carries. That is a nice 6 point floor. Add some receptions and 8 TDs on the season and you have a nice RB.
But the money RB comes with volume that gets you into the 80 yards per game for 1200 yards per year. You get there with a minimum of 18 totes per game.
I am speaking strictly rushing, not yards from scrimmage.
The point? If Ingram continues to see a minimum of 18 rushes a game he will finish as an elite RB on a per game basis this season. Those 3-4 extra carries per game make all the difference. That is all I'm saying.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
this entire 72 page thread just comes down to volume for this guy --- I don't want to start him for 10/50 and hoping for a td and 1 catch
robinson + thomas still worry me
robinson + thomas still worry me
I Am the Stig
Footballguy
The point with any RB comes down to volume if you remove situation, i.e. Goal Line looks. It is after all why in Fantasy, RBs historically have been drafted above most other positions early on, guaranteed volume.
WRs are about efficiency RBs are volume based.
The problem with Ingram is we don't know what to trust now. Early on he wasn't good enough to warrant more carries. Now, situation has dictated more volume and he has produced. The problem is believing that the volume will stick. I believe it will stick.
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Gopher State
Footballguy
Not worried about volume:
Ingram is the first Saints running back since Duce McAllister in 2006 to have back to back 100 yard games, even the coaching staff can figure this out going forward
Next three games are at home, Saints are money playing at home
10 days to rest up for the next game.
The Saints have found the workhorse they have been searching for, Robinson will see few if any touches, PT third down back. I see an average of 15-20 carries in the next three games for Ingram. Not bad for a guy I picked up off of the WW, and most FF teams drafted him late
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valhallan
Footballguy
They drafted him in the 1st round for this, but he was never good enough to do it. You can cherrypick games where his stats were good the past 3 years but if you actually watched the games he was not running like his is now. Payton wanted to ride him 3 years ago and now he finally can.
Now obviously that still doesn't preclude Payton from trying to get too cute at the goal line or when up by two scores in the 4th. That's just his nature.
Now obviously that still doesn't preclude Payton from trying to get too cute at the goal line or when up by two scores in the 4th. That's just his nature.
I Am the Stig
Footballguy
He was running angry at the end of last year. The light went on for him and the coaching staff.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
he seems to get really pissed off when pierre thomas doesn't play --- you'd think he'd be a lot happier about that
He was running like this against the Cowboys, and in the playoffs, and in the first two games of this year, and yet Payton didn't "ride" him after those games.
He was running angry against the Cowboys in week 10, but no light went off since he was hardly used after that. We won't know if the light went off until everyone is back from injury.
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Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
valhallan
Footballguy
No, he didn't run like this vs the Cowboys last year. I'm talking the way he ran, not the stat sheet. Yes, he ran this way in the playoffs, yes he ran this way in the preseason and yes he's been ridden ever since. In week 2 this year they were down 16-3 in the first half, though he still had the most touches. I'm just talking about watching games here, not stats.
Otis
Footballguy
Take another look, tell me he wasn't running angry.
He's been ridden ever since- is that a joke? He had a great game to start the playoffs, which was followed up by playing 2nd fiddle to Robinson the next game. He had 14 out of 34 RB touches in week 1 and 14 out of 30 in week 2. Lol at being down 16-3 in the first half- that didn't stop them from giving Robinson more carries than Ingram in the 1st half, did it?
We must have very different definitions of what "riding him" means. Ingram wasn't even the starter in weeks 1 and 2 and had 44% of the RB touches (that's ignoring the Lions game since it was his first game back from injury, but the numbers were similar). That certainly doesn't qualify in my book.
Franknbeans
Footballguy
full grown man
LawFitz
Footballguy
valhallan
Footballguy
You don't ride a workhorse when you're down two scores like they were in Seattle. I don't really know what your point is, actually.
My first post said they drafted him in the first round for this. He's not a pass catcher, he's a runner. They drafted him to run, he sucked, and guys like Ivory and Robinson saw opportunities. So, I think now that he's performing the way they expected they'll ride him as best they can when the game is going the way they need it to. If they go back to being down two scores early, Thomas and Robinson will come in. That's what a team with multiple options does.
I Am the Stig
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Why would Robinson come in if they were down 2 scores, he's the least dynamic NO RB in the passing game. He will spell Ingram to the tune of 5-10 carries/game depending on the flow of the game and will only see a lot of time if they are up by more then two scores in the mid fourth quarter.
Chaka
Footballguy
I am not certain that is the case. They could clinch their division and be unable to change their playoff seeding by week 15/16. It's happened before with a 3/4 seed.
I Am the Stig
Footballguy
Not that it hasn't happened I just think come week 16 the Saints will still be playing for something.
rjv
Footballguy
By week 16...maybe.
But I think it is unlikely they get up by 2+ games.
Week 16 is home against ATL remember
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Chaka
Footballguy
I don't think it happens either and it is far too early to be concerned about it. You plug'n'play him the rest of the way pretty much no matter what.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Home vs Atlanta Wk 16 as an Ingram and Graham owner makes my pants tight.
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just_want_2_win
Footballguy
ESPN Saints reporter Mike Triplett to "return to some form of timeshare" when Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas return from their injuries.
Robinson and Thomas have missed each of New Orleans' last two games, creating a perfect storm for Mark Ingram. Coach Sean Payton was asked following Thursday night's win over Carolina whether Ingram has earned a larger share. "Listen, he certainly is," said Payton. "Yet the key is just the durability. But he's been outstanding. I think that Sunday and then what he did last night, those are a lot of touches. And so we're gonna have to, as we get guys healthy, break those up. And yet to his credit, he's handled that workload."
Robinson and Thomas have missed each of New Orleans' last two games, creating a perfect storm for Mark Ingram. Coach Sean Payton was asked following Thursday night's win over Carolina whether Ingram has earned a larger share. "Listen, he certainly is," said Payton. "Yet the key is just the durability. But he's been outstanding. I think that Sunday and then what he did last night, those are a lot of touches. And so we're gonna have to, as we get guys healthy, break those up. And yet to his credit, he's handled that workload."
unckeyherb
Footballguy
That is 100% why I am concerned about his value going forward.
