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Mark Ingram (2 Viewers)
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Chaka
Footballguy
Four of their next six games are at home.
vs. Cin
vs. Bal
@ Pit
vs. Car
@ Chi
vs. Atl
Week 17 is @ TB so while it's "outdoors in December" it's also Florida and likely irrelevant to the majority of fantasy teams.
Chaka
Footballguy
So what's the deal with Khiry Robinson? Clearly we do not have all the information about his "boo-boo" but this just seems kind of excessive to the point of being worrisome.
I can't imagine they would keep him on the active roster if he is going to continue to keep missing games but this is working on four straight weeks of not playing or practicing.
I can't imagine they would keep him on the active roster if he is going to continue to keep missing games but this is working on four straight weeks of not playing or practicing.
Jimbo Slice
Footballguy
Everybody is trying to get this guy from me. Our trade deadline is this week and I ain't trading him away. Many (crap) offers tho
Chaka
Footballguy
Disagree. I think Ingram has cemented his hold on the starting job and will continue to put up RB#1 numbers on 17-21 touches instead of the almost 29 he has been getting the past three games. They are beating the #### out of him and he needs a breather, which is a role I think Khiry is perfectly suited for. Robinson would also provide a clear cut insurance policy in case something does happen to Ingram. If Robinson went to IR and Ingram missed time it would be a three headed monster of PT (if he ever gets healthy) Leonard and Cardet, which would be entirely useless to fantasy owners.
Milkman
Footballguy
I don't want Ingram to get injured but PT getting 10+ carries and 5+ targets wouldn't be terrible. When Khiry comes back It would be surprising if Ingram ever got 20+ carries. 11-15 range seems more reasonable.
treat88
Footballguy
Since they have already declined his option for 2015, the Saints are going to have a very interesting choice to make this off season.
The RB market may be depressed, but there are very few 25 y.o first rounders with Ingrams recent track record and pedigree that hit the open market.
In hindsight, the Saints obviously made a mistake in declining his option, the question becomes how much are they willing to spend to rectify that mistake given their cap situation which is already dire.
For dynasty purposes I think you have to value Ingram and Robinson with the presumption that Ingram is gone.
The RB market may be depressed, but there are very few 25 y.o first rounders with Ingrams recent track record and pedigree that hit the open market.
In hindsight, the Saints obviously made a mistake in declining his option, the question becomes how much are they willing to spend to rectify that mistake given their cap situation which is already dire.
For dynasty purposes I think you have to value Ingram and Robinson with the presumption that Ingram is gone.
I 100% disagree. His option was for $5M, which, on a one-year basis puts him around 10th in RB earnings.
The Saints would absolutely still have declined his option if they knew what he was going to do this year. Combination of the salary cap mess they created and the fact that they would be paying him possibly more than his value. Iis he really the 10th best RB in the league? I don't know about that. He's played some passing downs and caught a few passes but he's not a feature back. $5M+ per year is feature back money. I think there are a lot of guys in the league that could put up Ingram's stats playing with Brees. For instance, Hillman has been a terrible fantasy asset for years, but all of a sudden Peyton chooses to feature him and he's scoring multiple TDs per game. RBs are fungible when you have great QBs. Letting him walk was the correct decision.
Anyway, regardless of his debatable "worth" it would never have happened. Currently the Saints are projected to be nearly $20M over the cap next year. Even if it was known Ingram would lead the league in rushing, the Saints could not have mathematically allowed that extension, unless they were planning on gutting other positions next year.
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RamMan
Footballguy
Totally agree with the bolded part. Currently Khiry is sitting on our waiver wire (Id have to believe the same is true in many other leagues) and with our short benches Im not at all sure how to cuff/insure Ingram. For those Ingram owners who dont also have PT its a crap shoot whether to try and trade for PT, pick up an obviously injured Khiry, grab Cadet, or do nothing. In short bench re-draft leagues this is a real dilemma.
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Chaka
Footballguy
I can't see Robinson getting 15 opportunities per game with the way Ingram has been performing (that's if Robinson even comes back at all). Payton may have bizarre habits with RB utilization but my gut is telling me that he recognizes Ingram is the guy who gives them the best chance to win. I will be shocked if Ingram falls below 15 touches per game after Robinson comes back and I certainly don't see a 50:50 split between them.
Chaka
Footballguy
Misread part of your post but you suggested 10 runs and 5 targets for PT (I misread that as Robinson) so that seems to suggest a 50% or less than 50% workload for Ingram. PT, btw, hasn't had 10 carries in a game all season and while he has 29 total targets through 6 games 4 of those games he had 4 or less.
And? Pretty sure Ingram right now is not Ingram week 1. I would think what he has shown the last three weeks changed things.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
I don't think its at all crazy that he has carved out a bigger workload, even if/when PT and Khiry come back.
Milkman
Footballguy
I would have jumped all over that. We might have different formats though. I offered Ingram for a mid to late 1st to several owners and was turned down every time.
Nah...top RBS are hard to come by in my league. Ingram is playing at a very high level and his arrow is pointing up for next year.
Keenan Allen - based on his production this year, he's a dime a dozen...I've got michael Floyd, Patterson, quick...all interchangeable with Allen. He's not a difference maker now and he doesn't have any more of a chance of becoming one than those guys mentioned.
Ingram is a former #1 rookie draft pick and 1st rd pick from the saints. Highly touted coming into the nfl. He's finally paying off and he's only 24. He's becoming a known quantity now, and his upside is evident. Next year he will likely leave NO and be featured on another team.
I'll take ingram over a middling receiver with upside and a crapshoot mid-late 1st rounder any day.
Milkman
Footballguy
I hope your right since I own Ingram. I'd love to see Ingram go somewhere like Indy or Baltimore and get the chance to be a 3 down back.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
You are talking like this is a sure thing. Just last year you would have had to through at least one 1st with Ingram to get Allen. What if Ingram chases the money and ends up in a pit like in Oakland? What if he ends up back with the Saints?
I am not going to say I would take that offer, but it is very tempting. I say that because I have him in my dynasty league, he is one of my main pieces and I am a strong contender. The team that owns Allen in our league is on these boards a lot and also a playoff contender, I could see them offering me that to try to make a run at it.
You know what they say: a bird in hand...
Lots of rookie draft picks bust. Ingram is currently proving his worth. He's a stud. And a key piece to my playoff run this year. What the hell is Keenan "30 yards a game and a cloud of dust" Allen going to do for me this year? Or a draft pick?
I'm going for it all this year.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Like other players haven't done it before. If you're in the playoffs it's because Ingram is a piece of the pie. One player with a bad day isn't going to lose the game for you. Thanks for being a hater.
Chaka
Footballguy
Actually he is the same Ingram that he was in week 1, he is just getting more opportunities.
Milkman
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Ingram had 28 touches in the first two games when everyone was healthy. PT had 19 total and Khiry had 14 total.
I don't think it is much of a stretch to suggest that he has played himself into at least one more touch per game then he was averaging when everyone was healthy. Personally I think he has earned at least three more touches per game. Of course all of this is moot until Robinson and PT get healthy...if they get healthy.
Chaka
Footballguy
I am not sure about the whole hater thing but SD is right. Lots of high end players disappoint in the fantasy playoffs. Holding Ingram to a higher standard in that area makes little sense, especially because he probably is a big part of the reason you are in the playoffs in the first place.
Milkman
Footballguy
Khiry is the one that will do the most damage to Ingram's value. If PT comes back but not Khiry it's all aboard time for Ingram owners.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Where exactly do you come up with this stuff? Have you watched any Saints games this year?
Milkman
Footballguy
Yes I have. Peyton just likes to keep his RB fresh. I expect if Khiry is healthy that he will get 6-10 carries and a few GL carries. He could even out score Ingram in a game or two. Hope I'm wrong.
Insein
Footballguy
People just have trouble accepting that Ingram is a bellcow. Whether that's actual analysis or just sour grapes for dropping him, it doesn't matter. Those that own him or are trying to get him feel confident that he's had 3 100 yard games in a row and the Saints are 2-1 during that span and could be 3-0 if they had given Ingram the ball more early against the niners.
Rb1 rest of the way.
Rb1 rest of the way.
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I Am the Stig
Footballguy
The thing is the Saints have a losing record in a bad division. RBs just are not worth it in the scheme of things. It is a passing league now and that money is better spent elsewhere.
Not saying Ingram isn't playing great but the league just doesn't value RBs as much now. Ingram will get a raise but it won't be huge.
I Am the Stig
Footballguy
The narrative in these things always then change to a debate about sustainability.The Martavis Bryant thread is a text book case of ignoring production and talking sustainability.
Chaka
Footballguy
I hope Khiry gets 6-10 carries per game. I hope between him and PT they get between 8-12 carries it will bring Ingram's load down to 15-18 carries per game. Give him 1-3 receptions with the rest going to PT and Cardet (Khiry apparently doesn't catch) and that is a prime recipe to maximize production and minimize punishment.
Macdaddy_2004
Footballguy
He's been getting close to 30 every game even if they "dial" him back to 18 or so that will still be safe RB1 value.
treat88
Footballguy
That's fair. You are likely far more familiar with the details of the Saints cap woes than I am. I tend to see the cap as fairly easily manipulated. Couple extensions and a post June vet cut or 2 seems to do it every year for multiple teams.Phenomena said:
The bolded is really the crux of things. I think he absolutely looks like a feature back. Irrespective of their cap issues, I think the Saints or any other team would be thrilled to have him on a 1 year 5 million dollar deal next season.
Even tho I'm not sure it drove their decision, I agree that the Saints ultimately made the wise decision to address their cap issues and not spend on a non-premium position. At this point tho, that option year looks like a bargain compared to what he will likely sign for. I do think that if the Saints FO believed in Ingram's abilities they would have managed to find a way to afford his option year. I see the lack of exercising the option year as the FO's lack of belief in Ingram's talent as much if not moreso than a cap management decision. To me that is where they are mistaken. He doesn't look like a system dependent back at all right now.
Either way he's not playing for the Saints next year
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Thomas and Robinson ruled out
FIRE IT UP
FIRE IT UP
renesauz
IBL Representative
That's WAY better than anything I've been offered in any of the 4 leagues I own him in.
IN most leagues, this offer would have probably pried him away, and I love INgram.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I wish I owned this dude somewhere because he's a lock for 100+ yards weekly in his current situation.
Let's analyze this a bit deeper. The reason why people aren't making better offers for ingram is not because he isn't worthy of a premium price. It's BC a) ingram has been a huge bust for the first three years of his nfl career, b) his recent success is a relatively small body of work, c) he has had this success with khiry and Pierre thomas inactive, and many believe that his role will be reduced when they return and he won't be any better than an rb2, d) his coach is Sean Payton and Payton likes to mess with people. If you are someone who believes in all of that then you will think that a late 2015 1st rd pick and Keenan Allen is a good offer.
If you are like me, and you are seeing that this year something different is happening with ingram than in years past, and that his success really began late in the 2014 season, and that he was a beast for the first 2 games of this season even with Pierre and Khiry in the lineup, and that he is running like an elite RB, and that he is a former high draf pick with an excellent pedigree,and that Sean Payton is seeing that the saints generally win when they commit to the run, and that ingram is an fa next season...then you value him very highly and should not sell him for lower than his worth just BC other people don't see this.
Perception shapes people's realities. My perception of ingram's situation is far greater than the people's perception who are floating trade offers. And that's fine. I'm happy to hold him and enjoy the ride.
Rookie draft picks are total crap shoots. Just look at ingram's first 3 years in the league. Look at trich. You never know what you're going to get.
And Keenan Allen. Jury is still out on him. Rt now he's a dime a dozen young wr with upside.
What is the golden rule of successful trading? Always try to acquire the best player in the deal.
In this trade scenario there is little doubt that ingram is the best player.
No Bueno.
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BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
Ya but ....what if....you never know....he could...peyton might....i dont trust....cadet...he doesnt....
