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The Gronk Vs. Aaron Hernandez (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter NorrisB
- Start date
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Catches and Yards=Hernandez
Touchdowns=Gronk
Touchdowns=Gronk
Faust
MVP
Two different types of player IMHO. The Gronk plays more like a classic NFL TE and is a good receiving option, and was very good in the red zone last year, so he has some advantages and is compelling because he will likely see the field a significant amount of the TE snaps. Very safe bet with a decent floor and ceiling.Hernandez is more explosive and can play a hybrid WR/TE role. With continued skill development, he could become a player similar to Finley in Green Bay and is in the mold of the new type of TE (more of a downfield threat, and hopefully becomes an adequate blocker). Higher fantasy ceiling then Gronk, especially in yardage heavy or PPR leagues.The good news for both players is that they have Brady and the other Patriots receivers are o.k. to good, but there isn't such a crowded depth chart at the moment where there isn't room for both players to make a meaningful fantasy football contribution.On the downside, volatility is an issue when both are healthy, it can be a bit of a guessing game as to who will be the better player to start (there was a thread last year that had some information on identifying which defensive coverages were more suited to shuting down Gronk or Hernandez).
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Sweet Love
IBL Representative
In what was a pretty heavy TE draft (from fantasy perspective), Bellicheck walked away with arguably 2 of the top 3 (Graham would be in that group and I would listen to an arguement about Gresham). While we can discect what happened in 2010 for days, the truth is, both have the talent to be top 10 IF Bellicheck chooses to feature one versus the other. I think the debate is less of "which is better" and more "who will Bill feature".
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
Gronkowski is a more complete TE and he'll find himself on the field more because you don't lose much if anything with Gronkowski going out for passes either. The guy can get downfield and make the big play, he can lay crushing blocks and he's a huge TE threat. IMO it's not even close, Gronkowski is your guy.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
Just like any coach, he's going to feature who's better.
massraider
Footballguy
Starting every week for a fantasy team? Neither.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Gronk
Top 5 TE going forward.
Top 5 TE going forward.
Moonlight
Footballguy
I agree with this. I passed on Gronkowski in favor of Hernandez at draft time because of the back problems Gronkowski had but his back hasn't been an issue so far.
trader jake
Footballguy
Last year Gronkowski finished #5 and Hernandez #11. Last year's results do not necessarily correlate to this year's stats but considering they were rookies I'm guessing they are safe bets to produce again in their second season.So, rather than neither, I'd say both are fantasy starters. I'd lean Gronkwski in redraft and Hernandez in dynasty.
NorrisB
Footballguy
Why Hernandez in dynasty
gandalas
Footballguy
MUCH higher ceiling...Gronk seems more of a Witten/Pettigrew type - Bigger, better blocking, but slower. Still, those are some nice TEs.However, Hernandez is more of a Gates type to me. Which has the higher ceiling, Gates or Witten? History has shown it to be Gates.Why Hernandez in dynasty
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
True, but "better" is a relative term in regards to what the team needs. Hernandez fits the hybrid role of a TE better than Gronk. If the Pats had a motivated Moss (talking a few years ago) with Welker, I could see the need for a guy like Gronk on a down-to-down basis. On the flipside, if they do not get a WR FA and Tate and the other young guys do not develope, I could certainly see more of a need for Hernandez to be on the field more often to stretch the Defense.
fridayfrenzy
Footballguy
How is Hernandez more of a Gates type? I'd argue that Gronk is closer to Gates than Hernandez. Gates is 6'6 and 260 lbs. Gronkowski is 6'6 and 265 lbs.Hernandez is 6'2 and 245 lbs.Gates is a great athlete but is a player who is a big target and uses that size to get open. That is a lot closer to Gronkowski than it is to Hernandez IMO.MUCH higher ceiling...Gronk seems more of a Witten/Pettigrew type - Bigger, better blocking, but slower. Still, those are some nice TEs.However, Hernandez is more of a Gates type to me. Which has the higher ceiling, Gates or Witten? History has shown it to be Gates.Why Hernandez in dynasty
gandalas
Footballguy
I was more basing it on respective speed, not so much the size. Gates is a huge target, yes, but he also has great speed at the TE position (or at least used to), which corresponds to Hernandez more than Gronk.How is Hernandez more of a Gates type? I'd argue that Gronk is closer to Gates than Hernandez. Gates is 6'6 and 260 lbs. Gronkowski is 6'6 and 265 lbs.Hernandez is 6'2 and 245 lbs.Gates is a great athlete but is a player who is a big target and uses that size to get open. That is a lot closer to Gronkowski than it is to Hernandez IMO.MUCH higher ceiling...Gronk seems more of a Witten/Pettigrew type - Bigger, better blocking, but slower. Still, those are some nice TEs.However, Hernandez is more of a Gates type to me. Which has the higher ceiling, Gates or Witten? History has shown it to be Gates.Why Hernandez in dynasty
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
beware of Gronk, especially in ppr
42/546/10
10td could very well be an anonmaly and if the catches/yards stay relatively the same and he only gets 5/6 tds he drops to TE11/TE12 (barely startable in 12 man leagues)
IMO these 2 guys are backup TEs if your roster size allows for it in re-draft.
I do remember an article about Zone vs Man to Man coverage and who did what against it, and the numbers were quiet staggering
42/546/10
10td could very well be an anonmaly and if the catches/yards stay relatively the same and he only gets 5/6 tds he drops to TE11/TE12 (barely startable in 12 man leagues)
IMO these 2 guys are backup TEs if your roster size allows for it in re-draft.
I do remember an article about Zone vs Man to Man coverage and who did what against it, and the numbers were quiet staggering
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kurtrudder
Footballguy
This is what I came looking for when opening this thread because I do recall this analysis being mentioned a number of times, in a variety of different sources. Would love it if anyone could find some links to this. It really could help with the most important question regarding Gronk/Hernandez.....which one do you start??'bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Same argument different year.
Everyone called Gronkowski a Linebacker that couldnt catch and everyone called Hernandez a Wide Receiver that couldnt block. Where the former is less true than the latter they are both pretty dumb arguments. They will be staples in the New England offense for at least 4 years. I think Gronkowski will see double Hernandez's snaps over that time.
Everyone called Gronkowski a Linebacker that couldnt catch and everyone called Hernandez a Wide Receiver that couldnt block. Where the former is less true than the latter they are both pretty dumb arguments. They will be staples in the New England offense for at least 4 years. I think Gronkowski will see double Hernandez's snaps over that time.
I was in the pool
Footballguy
To me, you rank tight ends that can be a joker type weapon or athlete on offense above the guys that cannot do those things. Hernandez played the joker role his rookie year as a 20 year old in the nfl. That is all I need to know about the comparison between these two guys. More info. About this is available via cosell on twitter...great info and resource.
Faust
MVP
Double? That seems like a lot. I think Gronk will continue to see more snaps in 2011 due to his utility and skills as a blocker, but I don't get any points for blocking plays in my league. I like both players and think that they both offer different value propositions to fantasy GMsThey each finished with some impressive results for rookie TEs last year and are both likely to get better.Gronk is more likely to be on the field with his blocking skills and is a great red zone option, but is he a lock to hit double digit TDs again?Hernandez plays more like the new style of hybrid TE that plays more like a WR. His blocking isn't as strong as Gronk and never will be, but it doesn't need to be for him to be very productive for fantasy football purposes.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
Hernandez, Aaron NEP TE 181.16 points 45 catches 563 yards 6 TD's 64 TARGETS
Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 159.28 points 36 catches 444 yards 9 TD's 49 TARGETS
based on the above, why would anyone say Gronkowski is the better longterm play other than projecting injury to Hernandez
Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 159.28 points 36 catches 444 yards 9 TD's 49 TARGETS
based on the above, why would anyone say Gronkowski is the better longterm play other than projecting injury to Hernandez
elguapo07
Footballguy
Gronk is Mark Bavaro 2.0 - just a tough SOB who can put his hand down on the ground and block like a lineman just as easy as he can go over the middle for a td pass. Belichick loved Bavaro's game and I have a feeling that he sees a lot of Bavaro in Gronk. Hernandez won't ever have a hand on the ground but possesses a skill set which creates matchups problems that the Pats will exploit. I think Gronk will be in more offensive plays but Hernandez could have more targets. I think Gronk will be more consistent week in and week out while Hernandez looks to have a great week followed by week when he's barely involved.
At the end of the year I think both could/should be in the top 10 but I think Gronk has the higher ceiling even if I think Hernandez is the more talented receiver as I can see Gronk being Brady's new redzone toy.
At the end of the year I think both could/should be in the top 10 but I think Gronk has the higher ceiling even if I think Hernandez is the more talented receiver as I can see Gronk being Brady's new redzone toy.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Your #s for Gronkowski are wrong. And in my leagues he outscored Hernandez.
Your numbers are off considerably. Gronkowski did better than Hernandez in all formats.Should be:Hernandez: - Standard: 97 (563 Receiving yards, 6 Touchdowns, 47 Rushing yards) - PPR: 142 (563 Receiving yards, 6 Touchdowns, 47 Rushing yards, 45 receptions)Gronkowksi: - Standard: 114.6 (546 Receiving yards, 10 touchdowns) - PPR: 156.6 (546 Receiving yards, 10 touchdowns, 42 receptions)To the other post, I wasnt referring to being targetted twice as much as Hernandez. I was saying that the fact that he is over that time period gonna be in near double as many plays due to his utility and skill he will have a higher ceiling fantasy or otherwise.
bengalbuck
Footballguy
Gronk had a pretty big week 17. Since that week didn't count for scoring in your league, it isn't included in those stats, but it did happen and counts for his full season stats.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
I see - wasnt Hernandez injured week 17? the last few games questionable or he'd have seen the balls Gronk did?
gandalas
Footballguy
What is your point here? You were the one that brought up their year-end stats as favoring Hernandez when you were actually incorrect. I do hate that about MFL that they only show the weeks that were active for the league, instead of the whole season. In 2 of my leagues, that is only through week 15, so I am missing TWO weeks of scoring on the player pages...
Stealthycat
Footballguy
I guess my point is I was looking at which was the better TE as well as far as Fantasy purposes.
The side to side comparisons on Gronk vs Hernandez, and early in the season it was clear Hernandez was more targeted, like double the targets, then later in the season Gronk was.
The side to side comparisons on Gronk vs Hernandez, and early in the season it was clear Hernandez was more targeted, like double the targets, then later in the season Gronk was.
The Patriots offense as a whole(passing&rushing) was much better in the 2nd half of the season. Not saying that the TEs are responsible for that, but you can't ignore it either.
Faust
MVP
Hernandez was also battling a few injuries towards the end of the year that limited his effectiveness and kept him out of some games entirely.
Just so that we have as much info as possible:
Aaron Hernandez Pro Football Reference Page
Rob Gronkowski Pro Football Reference Page
ESPN Patriots 2010 Stats Page including targets
Snaps: Hernandez 3rd TE again
Patriots tight ends snaps summary
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I understand that, I'm just saying the Patriots offense was more efficient at the end of the season, when Gronk was getting a bigger workload. Might just be coincidence, but its worth mentioning.
Faust
MVP
It wasn't coincidence, as Gronk earned more playing time for a combination of his skills, utility as a blocker (Pats o-line wasn't great), and overall better health.The key questions are what can we reasonably assume will happen in 2011 for snaps, playing time, and offensive opportunities for these two players. Will Gronk stay healthy for the entire season. Will he repeat or hit close to 10 TDs again? Will Gronk see an increase in his snaps and more importantly his targets, catches, and yards? Will Hernandez stay healthy? Will Hernandez start more games in 2011? Will Hernandez see more snaps, targets, catches, yards, and TDs?
Another question for fantasy football owners is value and ADP:
Consensus TE ADP data
Faust
MVP
Hernandez 3rd TE again
This shows how snaps is not a great way to determine value for FF purposes. In this game Gronk crushed Hernandez for snaps 48-18 (Alge Crumpler was even in 38 snaps), but because the TEs were needed for blocking purposes, the entire group of TEs were targeted only two times. Gronk hauled in a 25 yard catch and Hernandez caught an 8 yard TD - and neither one of those results are overly helpful to the teams that started either TE (unless you play in a TD only league and started Hernandez).
Thats only one game, I want the TE that is getting 80% of the snaps as opposed to the guy who is getting 20%. I think Hernandez will always be a big play guy, but wont ever be consistent enough to be a startable TE. I could also see alot of people starting him after a big week to watch him get you a zero the next. Maybe I'm wrong, but he seems like more of a long term headache than a long term dynasty TE.
Faust
MVP
Gronk was in 756 snaps last year vs. 486 for Hernandez (55% more) so seeing double is an unlikely outcome, especially given that Gronk started 11 of 16 games and Hernandez started 7 of 14 games. Even with a 1.55 to 1 ratio in snaps, Gronk didn't produce 55% better targets, catches, or yards. TD production for Gronk was clearly better, but TDs are the stat that are most volatile from year to year.Gronk and Hernadez both have a good fantasy football outlook, but as far as higher ceiling goes, my bet is on Hernandez as he has more room to see an increase in snaps and offensive looks just given the playing time for both from last year (assuming both stay healthy and continue to develop). Throw in ADP and the price that each can be had at for draft and auction purposes, and it becomes a very close debate.
Faust
MVP
You are right that this is just a one game sample, but I am trying to show that snaps doesn't accurately portray offensive scoring opportunities, and the fact that Gronk had way more snaps last year (756 vs. 486 or 55% more snaps) didn't result in more targets, catches, and yards. A number of Gronk's snaps were purely blocking plays, and were the reason why he was on the field more. You are right that Hernandez right now based on last year's analysis would appear to be the higher risk to start between the two, but this also assumes that he doesn't improve his game where he won't see more playing time (improving his consistency) and won't stay healthy either. An improvement to the quality and health of the Pats offensive line would also free up the Patriots to need their TEs to block less frequently, and this could also boost Hernadez's stock.'Go deep said:
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I have no doubt Hernandez has room for improvement, but so does Gronk. I actually think the health of the Pats oline would help Gronk more because he wouldnt have to stay in to block as much. Putting Gronkowski out as a TE leaves the option to run or pass. Put Hernandez out there without Gronkowski and the defense knows your throwing.
Its an easy argument to make when Gronkowski already has the most and only stands to lose (but will in everyones opinion still have an increase) in snaps. I recognize that Aaron Hernandez is a great athlete and TE but as far as utility goes he has none. The best thing going for him at this point is he is the perfect compliment to Gronkowski. Im sure if they dont release him this will be Crumplers last year, expecting his numbers to go way down as the Patriots start to integrate Lee Smith into the system. Lee Smith is kind of a wildcard at this point, hes not the fastest out there (4.9 forty) but he is a bigger guy similar height and weight to Gronkowski pretty good hands and blocking skills, I expect Smith to only take snaps from Crumpler.
therokie0070
Footballguy
Snaps for a TE mean nothing it is all about Targets for TE in Fantasy!! If NE gets any kind of a running game (Short yardage) you can cut Gronks TDs in half!! Hernandez will continue to be targeted and will more than likely have better Fantasy numbers in PPR, they are a split in non PPR. Dynasty I will go Hernandez because He has more superstar potential, plus if he improves on blocking and adds 10-15 pounds of muscle he would be a featured TE like Gates/Clark/Gonzales!! I dont think Gronk will ever be have the opportunity or skill to be in the elite class when it comes to fantasy.
pghrob
Hail to the Chief
Not sure that Hernandez's frame/body type would do well with an additional 10-15#'s of muscle. http://www.nfl.com/players/aaronhernandez/profile?id=HER281088 At 6'1" and 245, he seems pretty well proportioned from a physique perspective. He is strong enough to fend off would be tacklers if he can improve his blocking technique - but make no mistake, his strength is pass catching and that will be how he gets his bread buttered. The Pats will not waste his receiving talents disproportionately in the running game.'therokie0070 said:
The Pats did themselves well in drafting two bonafide studs at TE last year. From a fantasy perspective, I would take Hernandez over Gronk.
NorrisB
Footballguy
You know theres alot of good quality backup TEs in the league, like Fred Davis for example, I feel people are drinking too much coolaid on Hernandez and dont realize that the guy is going to be next to worthless.
How many top TEs in the league besides Finley cant block?
"Oh we're going to use alot of two TE sets..." How many times have you heard that and it turned out to be lip service?
How many top TEs in the league besides Finley cant block?
"Oh we're going to use alot of two TE sets..." How many times have you heard that and it turned out to be lip service?
sihaokills
Footballguy
The Gronk... Bigger redzone target, more snaps, great player
I was in the pool
Footballguy
Think of Hernandez as a big 3rd WR more than anything. A mismatch. These guys like Hernandez and Finley can block, just creatively - not in a 3-pt. stance next to the tackle.
I am happy that everyone keeps pumping Gronkowski - keeps the price on Hernandez low for the time being.
I am happy that everyone keeps pumping Gronkowski - keeps the price on Hernandez low for the time being.
therokie0070
Footballguy
Snaps for a TE like Gronk mean nothing, targets are all that matters for TE in Fantasy!!! If NE has a better running game I forecast Gronks redzone targets will decrease some, I think by the end of the season Hernandez will be Targeted twice as much as Gronk.
therokie0070
Footballguy
I am over this topic!!! They are both great players in different aspects and at the end of the season we will all see what happens!!!
