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Jason Wood

Fred Jackson, RB, Buffalo Bills

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2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Fred Jackson, RB, Buffalo Bills

Player Page Link: Fred Jackson Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

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Here's a surprising stats for me: Fred Jackson has rushed for just about 2000 yards and played in 32 games in the NFL the past 2 seasons. Fred Jackson has been a guy who you can acquire on the cheap due to RB draft picks by the Bills but Jackson's numbers speak for themself. Jackson is a guy who will never have the value he deserves so trying to trade him for a higher profile type player won't usually work but he'll put up decent numbers and make for a solid flex and spot player as your No. 2 RB.

905 yards rushing 5 Td's, 35 receptions for 250 yards and 2 Td's.

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Pretty hard to imagine Spiller not getting significantly more than the 74 carries he got last year. Jackson had 222. I'm guessing Spiller will double his total to near 150 and cut into Jackson's 3rd down time & receptions also. I see this being a 50/40/10 type committee, with Jackson maybe getting a bit more than half of touches.

200 x 4.2 = 840 yards, 5 td, 25 catches for 175 yards

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I think that Fred's carries actually go up. I think Spiller waits one more year till he really gets involved. Fred's been a solid rb2 whenever he starts. Very undervalued, going in the 6-8th round range.

235 carries x 4.3 ypc= 1010 rush yards

35 rec, 250 rec yrds

6 total tds.

Good low end rb2 numbers you can get for the price of a rb3

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I think that Fred's carries actually go up. I think Spiller waits one more year till he really gets involved. Fred's been a solid rb2 whenever he starts. Very undervalued, going in the 6-8th round range. 235 carries x 4.3 ypc= 1010 rush yards35 rec, 250 rec yrds6 total tds. Good low end rb2 numbers you can get for the price of a rb3

I agree with these numbers as a safe base case. I think there is a lot of upside in the TD category and receiving yardage category. I think Buffalo sees Spiller for what he is (a 3rd down / change of pace back) and if you look at F-Jax's production without Lynch in the picture, you can imagine a 1,200 RuYd, 400 ReYd, 10 total TD season.

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I think that Fred's carries actually go up. I think Spiller waits one more year till he really gets involved. Fred's been a solid rb2 whenever he starts. Very undervalued, going in the 6-8th round range.

235 carries x 4.3 ypc= 1010 rush yards

35 rec, 250 rec yrds

6 total tds.

Good low end rb2 numbers you can get for the price of a rb3

I agree with these numbers as a safe base case. I think there is a lot of upside in the TD category and receiving yardage category. I think Buffalo sees Spiller for what he is (a 3rd down / change of pace back) and if you look at F-Jax's production without Lynch in the picture, you can imagine a 1,200 RuYd, 400 ReYd, 10 total TD season.
This is the same regime that drafted him #9 overall.

I'm not trying to make a case for Spiller. I'm still on the fence as far as Buffalo goes, but to write Spiller off like that does not seem wise. Someone on this staff wanted him more than other positions of need, so I expect they'll find a way to use him in year two. Given that there were only 347 fairly unproductive (4.0 ypc) RB rushing attemps, nobody is very enticing here unless some strange series of events leads to one player becoming a bell cow. It is feasible that both backs end up with less than 200 carries.

Jackson is currently RB28 and Spiller is RB34. I like Gailey as an OC, so if one of these guys clicks then you're probably looking at RB15 upside, but my money is on a split. Maybe these guys marginally outperform their draft position, but I'd rather roll the dice on Ryan Grant (RB27), Marshawn Lynch (RB29), or even wait a bit and take Beanie Wells (RB40).

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Fred Jackson continues to be undervalued in fantasy because he's not flashy and the Bills are bad, and he continues to produce as a RB2 for those savy enough to realize his talents. Spiller isn't a threat to him and Lynch is gone. As pointed out earler, once the Bills were done showcasing Lynch and he was traded, Jackson put up good numbers for the Bills the rest of the way (averaging 88yds/game) as he has every time he's been the guy there.

265 att, 1150 yds, 7 TD, 35 rec, 270 yds, 2 TD

He'll finish around RB17 and can be had at RB28.

A very safe RB2 who comes with a RB3 price tag.

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(KFFL) Buffalo Bills RB Fred Jackson said he is unhappy after practice Monday, Aug. 22, saying he feels underappreciated and uncertain of where he stands. "I feel like a No. 1 back," Jackson said. "I feel like I should be treated like one, know what's going on, know where I stand and what the situation is." His unhappiness stems from the fact RB CJ Spiller started the preseason game Saturday, Aug. 20, against the Denver Broncos and received most of the playing time with starters.

:popcorn:

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I like Jackson well enough. Own him in my dynasty.

I realize no one ever gets excited about him, but I really don't know that he's that undervalued though. He's going at RB29 on ESPN.

How high, exactly, should a 30 year-old mediocre talent that's splitting carries on a horrible team go?

I think he's risky in that he could be very easily be useless (a big game or 2 from Spiller would do this, I think). He also has very little upside.

What gives me hope for Jackson is that I don't believe in Spiller. I'd imagine the Buffalo staff very much believes in Spiller though. At least enough to give him every opportunity to steal the majority of the carries from Jackson. Buffalo is bad enough that neither RB will look great, so the young, #9 pick will start getting the nod.

At the very least, he should steal enough 3rd down opportunities to eat into a big part of Jackson's value (his receptions). A Buffalo Bills RB that must be rely on TDs to ever win you a fantasy game doesn't sound like a great proposition.

So, I think Jackson's value seems about right. Sure, he can be your RB2, but if he is, you are probably in trouble. A good guy to have around for bye-weeks and injuries, but not for anything more. His mediocre career is in a decline that should only continue with Spiller getting a larger role.

I think he continues to lose carries and receptions to Spiller, so put me down for 200-850-4 rushing and 20-150-1 receiving.

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