love apple as a company but LOL at people who thought the top market cap company in the world would keep going vertical.
if they don't beat the analyst low ball estimates by around 15%-20% it will tank more after earnings. Everyone expects them to beat estimates handily.
Last quarter was the perfect storm with Jobs dying a day after the iphone4s release and it being a holiday quarter. They had non-stop advertising on every network talking about apple and Jobs.
I expect a retrace into the low 500's by the end of May.
If the momentum guys start dumping this, it will be a great time to buy. I own AAPL common with a very low base price so these little 100 point moves are fun but I'm looking at the big picture. The stock is still cheap. Will probably buy some calls leading up to earnings if the stock dips back to 550. This is a blip on my radar screen. Fundamentals are still sound.
Exactly. If the P/E is still in the teens, with a growth rate in the twenties, I don't really care what the price is tomorrow. Someday, it will be more.Oh, and my cost basis is in the 90s. That makes it easier to hold.
I was long from mid 09' through this year, and am now highly skeptical they can maintain their business model the bigger they get.1)their margins are huge vs the rest of the industry. This was sustainable while they were targeted at a smaller market of hardcore followers but they are mass market now. Show me an industry where one company has maintained margins grossly higher then any other in the same industry.
2)customers refreshing every cycle in a more mature market won't happen, while improvements will be made after the iPhone5 with lte speeds the future improvements won't have the vast majority of their market refreshing every year.
3)they are in the most competitive markets in technology, and technology moves lighting quick. Right now it's just assumed they will be the ones always leading it, that's borderline impossible to do in technology.
4)Steve jobs is dead. Yes they have a deep bench, but do they have the one person who can see things from all angles and who is to computers to what Jesus is to religion. He made his employees work harder then they though possible and they would do anything to please him, you can't just replace a guy who was the godfather of personal computing. Once he found out he had cancer he tried to fit what would take most companies 20 years into a 5 year period...and he did it.
Seeing these analysts just assume rapid growth and high margins over the next 5-10 years is laughable. When companies get to the top of the hill is gets a lot more difficult, competition eventually catches up, there is a reason no company's market cap just blows everyone away.
Apple is my favorite company, but I don't bet my money on exceptions, and apple reaching the trillion dollar market cap over the next couple years many analysts are projecting is a HUGE exception.
+14.34 (2.81%)
for us AAPL longs. Do you do any complex options trades or are you pretty simple in your approach? I've just really started understanding and appreciating the beauty of options about 5 years ago. If you see any trades that look attractive post them here. Always interested.
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