goonsquad
Think different.
Why does this surprise you? What changed from last quarter to this quarter that would lead you to believe that they wouldn't maintain margins?
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Apple (AAPL) : Tim Cook announces iForum. Dodds and Bryant prepare shut down operations (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter [icon]
- Start date
Nothing.I don't understand how the market is so short sighted and that issue has cost me money. I guess I'm hardheaded but I won't bet on a company if I look 2 years ahead and see warning flags all over the place. In 2009 I went big on apple, not due to how they were doing currently but due to what I saw going forward. The day after I invested rumors of jobs dying got reported and the stock took a beating, i looked like a moron for a month.I will admit fully in the short term I have zero idea of how a company will move, and have been wrong countless times. That's a part of investing (or gambling which is what the market actually is), and find me anyone who can be right 70%+ of the time short term and I'll believe in god.Call me an idiot today, but also be willing to call me a prophet a couple years from now.
I am sure you are absolutely right. You and the guys who keep talking about the financial collapse that is coming, will eventually be proved right, in the long run. But in the long run, we're all dead. In the meantime, there is money to be made in the short term.
Keeping the same form factor of the iPhone and iPad has reduced costs so much that the lower priced iPad and iPhones have maintained their high margins, I whiffed on that.As consumers are crying for the newly designed iPhone, investors might want to think about the increased costs of production. That said the new design will make up for the decreased margins with incredible sales of an lte iphone5, or new iPhone whatever they call it.I 100% whiffed on this quarter and the international sales were unbelievable. The margins shocked me, but the guidance for next quarter did warn of lowered margins.I will probably wait until after the jan 2013 earnings call to short, but at that time I will place huge bets on the short side.Why does this surprise you? What changed from last quarter to this quarter that would lead you to believe that they wouldn't maintain margins?
I'm not someone calling for financial collapse, or apples collapse. Go read my apple posts from the past, I've been called one of the most obnoxious apple fans on here.In no way do I think apple is a bad company, i have an iphone, ipad, and macmini, I just think there are a lot more cons then pros looking forward.
Miscellaneous
Footballguy
I think the biggest problem is you're trying to project too far into the future, especially for a company like Apple. If this were the middle of last decade, you'd be crying about how Macs and iPods can't make this much money in two years. You're right, but simultaneously very wrong.(1) who the #### knows what Apple's going to look like in 2 years? You're predicting the end of something that's GUARANTEED to end.(2) Jobs et all kept talking about a rich pipeline; maybe they're telling the truth.(3) in the meantime, all that matters is that Apple's making a ####ton of money, and is actually fairly- to under-priced for that performance. You can't make money trying to predict how a two year forecast is going to change the stock price today.
You make a lot of good points. I have to learn the future is basically irrelevant in the stock market. The market doesn't react until the numbers slap them in the face.Maybe I overestimate Jobs contribution to the company. I truly believe he is the da Vinci of our generation. Da Vincis understudies couldn't replicate his visions, maybe apples understudies can.Being forward looking usually pays off in most cases, in the stock market it doesn't, and I have to punch myself to realize that point.
Otis
Footballguy
I agree re: the concerns over the loss of Jobs.
Otis
Footballguy
Why, because you're predicting this insane run by Apple is not sustainable forever? Pretty sure we're all prophets if that is where we set the bar.
goonsquad
Think different.
No, the market looks forward exactly like you are trying to do. And the fact is, AAPL is being held back (and has been for years) due to the fact that the market simple cannot fathom how a company will continue to be as successful as Apple has been. Apple "coming back to earth" is always priced into the stock. The problem is that there is no evidence pointing to that happening yet. You are starting with a premise (Apple cannot continue their success) and picking evidence that supports it, instead of examining all available evidence and coming to an informed opinion.
Forget about the future. Let's assume Apple stopped growing (and we know how likely that is), but just replicated its latest quarter. What would you have? A company which had $50 in earnings, and threw off $40 billion in cash in a year.At the a $600 share price, it would be 12 times earnings, which is below the market average. Assume they gave 75% of the cash to shareholders as a dividend (they would still keep adding to their $110 billion cash hoard), they would be giving shareholders $33 cash per share, which is a nice 5.5% yield. Any way you look at it, Apple is undervalued.Will the curve flatten? Of course it will. But there is still money to be made.
Ned
Footballguy
It got quiet in here...
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Took ~ 80% of my position off the table at 603, and the rest off at 581. I don't see any catalysts for the next couple months, so I think there's some room for the stock to fall and perhaps settle in the mid-low 5's, especially if Europe weighs on the market overall. I'll be looking to re-enter late summer ahead of the i5 redesign.
hxperson
Footballguy
Mike Milken often talks about how Sony's stock performed before and after the passing of the legendary Akio Morita in 1999. Its a particularly interesting comparison/juxtapostion with Apple because of how intertwined the success and failure of these two respective companies are, and how key innovation has been to their product portfolios. Worth thinking about at least when contemplating the passing of Jobs and the future of Apple's stock, imo.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Was Sony as profitable as Apple is currently, and will continue to be for the next ~ half decade? I get the innovation angle, but Apple is literally printing money right now and growth seems to be locked in based on the immaturity of markets in China, India, etc.
Major
Footballguy
Yeah, only up over 50% YTD...nothing to see here
Major
Footballguy
Milken is conveniently forgetting the AAPL halo. Sony never had that.
Major
Footballguy
This strategy works for the trader or the conservative investor. I don't want to time this thing as they haven't given me a reason to sell. I got stopped out on some shares but still about 50% of my portfolio in AAPL. Still holding out for iP5, TV and China/India and will add call options accordingly.
Last edited by a moderator:
hxperson
Footballguy
Have you even heard Milken's statements? What makes you say this?
lumpy19
Footballguy
Maybe not to the extent that apple has it but sony definitely had this effect. Sony tv to sony vcr...then hook it up to sony home theatre. This is based only on my personal experience but in the mid-late 90's i had to have everything sony and so did my friends.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
In the last quarter:ATT: 78% of Smartphones sold were iPhonesVerizon: 51% of Smartphones sold were iPhonesSprint:: 60% of Smartphones sold were iPhonesOverall, 63% of the Smartphones sold on the big 3 carriers were iPhones. Apple is, indeed, printing cash right now.Sounds like a great plan.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Yep. The biggest concerns (IMO) are whether they can continue innovating at this pace (unlikely) and the margins in international markets - i.e. will Chinese and Indian telecoms subsidize iPhones in order to make them affordable for the masses.
Ned
Footballguy
I won't get into this silly slap fight (I made a good amount in AAPL but am on the sidelines now). I just found it funny that Misc. was so quick to call out the bears for being quiet after earnings, yet here we are now with the bulls mysteriously quiet with another hard drop.AAPL is sitting right on support at around 565ish. If it breaks thru here, I can see a drop to 535ish with 516 squarely in it's sights. If it gets to that 516 level, I may jump back in.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
I would LOVE to see that happen. :BOATLOADS:
Major
Footballguy
I'm 36. I can tolerate risk.
bagger
Footballguy
thats where i am looking to hop in.
The Commish
Footballguy
Milken's focus wasn't on the numbers on the balance sheets and income statements. It was on the confidence level. Confidence is a much larger factor in worth today than when Morita passed away. Don't believe me? Ask Wachovia. From an income statement perspective there was no reason to panic, but people did anyway. This is the factor Milken has talked about in the past and I wouldn't write him off completely. I figure Jobs had a two year plan in place. All the current regime has to do is manage it and they will be fine. The big unknown comes when direction actually has to be given by the new regime. That's when I start watching closely.
Ned
Footballguy
Here we go...
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Great call Ned. My powder is dry and I am ready to pounce.
culdeus
Footballguy
I'd be interested to see what the S3 announce does to AAPL. If that is well thought of (and it should be) with no firm 5 date could see a pretty good pull back. There are some really bad signs right now on the legacy products that were not there in the last cycle. Those legacy products were gravy in the past and now it's more like curdled milk.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
S3? Samsung's phone? Wasn't that announced a couple of weeks ago?
Last edited by a moderator:
Miscellaneous
Footballguy
Oh, sorry - was I supposed to keep posting in here? Yes, I'm still happily holding a full position (4% of my portfolio) in a stock that has a P/E ratio of 13 and a 5-year growth rate of 58%. On a cost basis of $96.As long as they hit their numbers next quarter, I'd imagine everyone will regain sanity, and it'll be up another 15-20%.I do agree - it's in a transition from growth stock to money-printing value stock. But AS A VALUE STOCK, it's a great buy today.I was just laughing about the number of people who got caught with their pants around their ankles - 'I bet it'll miss the numbers this quarter'; 'I'm short a huge amount - no way this keeps going up.' I really don't care what the stock price is today.
culdeus
Footballguy
Well, launches. End of month is what I was led to believe here.
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
I'm thinking it will only directly effect the previous latest/greatest Android flavor of the quarter.
culdeus
Footballguy
Samsung is trending towards consolidating a brand with a solid product and will have a 6 month head start. It is absolutely the biggest threat right now. ICS is a very, very strong OS as well and I greatly prefer it to iOS5 right now. I'm in a unique position to use basically every mobile platform/device out there before, during, and after launch and I would be worried about losing ground before the 5 and ipadnano launches. Betting on Apple with Jobs dead and buried in this environment is super risky. I am a buyer at anything under 500 FWIW.
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
Sup Culd, I agree with you on most points and feel that if I didn't have my iPhone, I'd be just as thrilled to have an ICS Android device, but the differences, short of larger screens are so minimal that they mostly boil down to personal preferences. I was so completely wrong about the last iPhone 4S sales before it came out, a device that's almost exactly like the iPhone 4, that I won't dare to bet against the re-designed iPhone 5 sales/demand/profits being through the roof as well.'culdeus said:
culdeus
Footballguy
I guess. Everything, and I mean everything depends on how the carriers play the contract discounts at launch. They were really liberal letting people go the last time around for fear they would jump to Sprint/VZW if they didn't bend over. I mean last time out you had people with basically new 3GS selling them on craigslist for 250 and paying 200 to swap to 4S. Unless you were holding on to some ancient 3G model you made money on that transaction. Eventually the man catches up with you. See: Ticketmaster, Stubhub, Ebay, et. all. I just applied for carrier unlock on my 4 so I don't have to mess with the hassle of preserving baseband on updates, but hell just a stock 4 is still worth a premium to the contract price 3 years later!AT&T etc. is overpaying. It's just a matter if they care.
goonsquad
Think different.
I'm sure they care, but can they do anything about it? The iPhone was 78% of their smartphone sales last quarter. Apple is holding all the cards right now.
I'm not an Apple fan boy and I'm not a Droid fan boy, but...I have an Motorola 4G Atrix 2 droid phone that I got back in December 2011 (obviously, there are much better droid phones out there now). My woman has an Apple iPhone 4. She has had her for phone for over a year now. She actually just said last night "I feel like your phone is so much more user friendly."
I think the truth of the matter is that Apple has some catching up to do and this iPhone 5 better get it done.
Also, Apple's biggest thing going for it now is name recognition. It's almost like a Starter jacket. Who cares what it looks like or does...it's Apple. I really do think they could come out with an Apple iTurd and it'll sell like crazy.
culdeus
Footballguy
I doubt that will hold this quarter. Anyways, the most striking sign is their willingness to do factory unlocks now. This is an abrupt 180 seemingly out of nowhere. Sprint also saying it will be 3+years before they get back their investment is telling, as is the VZW changes to their 3g/4g plans.
Even at 100 a month these users just don't seem to be bringing in anything but revenue it would seem, and then force deployment of huge infrastructure just to support it all.
Someone is going to have to blink here.
'One said:Cool story, Hansel.I'm not an Apple fan boy and I'm not a Droid fan boy, but...I have an Motorola 4G Atrix 2 droid phone that I got back in December 2011 (obviously, there are much better droid phones out there now). My woman has an Apple iPhone 4. She has had her for phone for over a year now. She actually just said last night "I feel like your phone is so much more user friendly."
I think the truth of the matter is that Apple has some catching up to do and this iPhone 5 better get it done.
Also, Apple's biggest thing going for it now is name recognition. It's almost like a Starter jacket. Who cares what it looks like or does...it's Apple. I really do think they could come out with an Apple iTurd and it'll sell like crazy.
Okay.
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
Sorry eoMMan, just feels like I've read this post over 100 times over the last few years.'One said:Cool story, Hansel.I'm not an Apple fan boy and I'm not a Droid fan boy, but...
I have an Motorola 4G Atrix 2 droid phone that I got back in December 2011 (obviously, there are much better droid phones out there now). My woman has an Apple iPhone 4. She has had her for phone for over a year now. She actually just said last night "I feel like your phone is so much more user friendly."
I think the truth of the matter is that Apple has some catching up to do and this iPhone 5 better get it done.
Also, Apple's biggest thing going for it now is name recognition. It's almost like a Starter jacket. Who cares what it looks like or does...it's Apple. I really do think they could come out with an Apple iTurd and it'll sell like crazy.
...Meanwhile Apple continues to produce quality hardware and software, sell them like hotcakes and make profits, hand over fist.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
And Justin Bieber continues to sell millions of songs/records.Sorry eoMMan, just feels like I've read this post over 100 times over the last few years.'One said:Cool story, Hansel.I'm not an Apple fan boy and I'm not a Droid fan boy, but...
I have an Motorola 4G Atrix 2 droid phone that I got back in December 2011 (obviously, there are much better droid phones out there now). My woman has an Apple iPhone 4. She has had her for phone for over a year now. She actually just said last night "I feel like your phone is so much more user friendly."
I think the truth of the matter is that Apple has some catching up to do and this iPhone 5 better get it done.
Also, Apple's biggest thing going for it now is name recognition. It's almost like a Starter jacket. Who cares what it looks like or does...it's Apple. I really do think they could come out with an Apple iTurd and it'll sell like crazy.
...Meanwhile Apple continues to produce quality hardware and software, sell them like hotcakes and make profits, hand over fist.
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
We are talking about a stock here, right?And Justin Bieber continues to sell millions of songs/records.Sorry eoMMan, just feels like I've read this post over 100 times over the last few years.'One said:Cool story, Hansel.I'm not an Apple fan boy and I'm not a Droid fan boy, but...
I have an Motorola 4G Atrix 2 droid phone that I got back in December 2011 (obviously, there are much better droid phones out there now). My woman has an Apple iPhone 4. She has had her for phone for over a year now. She actually just said last night "I feel like your phone is so much more user friendly."
I think the truth of the matter is that Apple has some catching up to do and this iPhone 5 better get it done.
Also, Apple's biggest thing going for it now is name recognition. It's almost like a Starter jacket. Who cares what it looks like or does...it's Apple. I really do think they could come out with an Apple iTurd and it'll sell like crazy.
...Meanwhile Apple continues to produce quality hardware and software, sell them like hotcakes and make profits, hand over fist.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
I thought eoMMan was talking about an actual product.We are talking about a stock here, right?And Justin Bieber continues to sell millions of songs/records.Sorry eoMMan, just feels like I've read this post over 100 times over the last few years.'One said:Cool story, Hansel.I'm not an Apple fan boy and I'm not a Droid fan boy, but...
I have an Motorola 4G Atrix 2 droid phone that I got back in December 2011 (obviously, there are much better droid phones out there now). My woman has an Apple iPhone 4. She has had her for phone for over a year now. She actually just said last night "I feel like your phone is so much more user friendly."
I think the truth of the matter is that Apple has some catching up to do and this iPhone 5 better get it done.
Also, Apple's biggest thing going for it now is name recognition. It's almost like a Starter jacket. Who cares what it looks like or does...it's Apple. I really do think they could come out with an Apple iTurd and it'll sell like crazy.
...Meanwhile Apple continues to produce quality hardware and software, sell them like hotcakes and make profits, hand over fist.
Similar threads
