***Official Julius Thomas Hype Train*** (2 Viewers)

[icon] said:

SameSongNDance said:

[icon] said:

SameSongNDance said:

EBF said:

I'd probably be looking to sell, assuming that I already had a starting TE who I felt good about (and I'm guessing that many JT owners do, especially in dynasty).

The offense is going to be dynamite and maybe it will carry him to a top 5 finish. OTOH, at risk of sounding like a complete hater, I'm not actually convinced that he's an incredible talent. He doesn't look as athletic as Graham or even Finley to me. More like a Marcedes Lewis, with the benefit of playing in a Peyton Manning offense.

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Lewis as three 40+ catches in 96 starts. JT had a 44 yard catch and run in what, his 2nd ever start? I mean, I'm 100% convinced he's a no-brainer top 5 after a single performance but I think it's safe to assume he's a bit more athletic than Marcedes Lewis.

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I'm not sure how number of catches per start is an effective metric for gauging athleticism?

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So there's absolutely no correlation between the number of longer (40+ yard in this case) passes caught and a players athletic ability? Of course, YAC amongst other things would be more telling but to imply that there's no correlation..

He seemed pretty athletic to me on that 44 yard catch and run.

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I'm not saying there is absolutely no correlation. I'm just not sure that's the best metric as it involves a TON of external variables... Number of targets, Types of routes targeted, Defensive coverages faced, Quality of defenses faced, and most obviously an EXTREMELY small sample size in the case of Julius Thomas. You're welcome to make those sort of comparison in the face of that but I'm not comfortable doing so.

What I AM willing to do, given the absurdly small data set of actual game time (where IMO he looked good but moved akwardly at times).... and look at something fairly standardized: NFL Combine data. Now unfortunately we don't have combine data for Gronk but here's a comparison of Graham and Thomas:

40yd Dash: 4.56 (graham) vs 4.68 (Thomas)

Vert Leap: 38.5" vs 35.5"

Broad Jump: 120" vs 111"

3 Cone Drill: 6.90 vs 6.96sec

60yd Shuttle: 11.76 vs 11.95sec

Height: 6'6" vs 6'5"

Reach: 35" vs 33"

Graham Notes:

STRENGTHSGraham has an outstanding combination of size and speed for the tight end position. A former basketball player, he shows impressive natural athleticism on the gridiron. Despite limited experience, he has capable hands to make a play in traffic. High-character guy. Possesses tremendous potential.

WEAKNESSESGraham lacks game experience with only one year of football under his belt. At this time, work ethic as a pure football player needs to improve. His toughness is in question as he still carries the basketball player label. Blocking tenacity and overall technique need polish and refinement.

Thomas Notes:

STRENGTHSThomas possesses excellent size coupled with enough speed for the NFL. Displays some savvy and athleticism setting up defenders in his stem. Tough matchup for linebackers in man coverage. Has very good ball skills. Plucks and snatches away from frame and adjusts to poorly thrown ball. Can get up the seam for big plays.

WEAKNESSESVery limited football experience. Blocking is not adequate. Lacks the lower body power to get movement. Lacks the upper body power needed to sustain blocks. Very raw in pass protection. Displays hip stiffness cutting out of his stem. Still developing his awareness against zone coverage. Drops the occasional pass.

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The numbers, combined with the scout analysis of the two players tell me two things. Thomas has very solid speed given his size, but isn't as fluid or naturally athletic as Graham (or Gronk IMO). Notice there are multiple knocks on Thomas' athleticism and they use words like enough and some.... whereas for Graham the knocks are on polish/toughness and they use words like tremendous, impressive, and outstanding describing his athleticism and potential?

Thomas looked very good last night but also looked akward and robotic at times. IMO his long catches had as much to do with Peyton identifying broken coverage as it did with him using his athleticism to get open and to gain YAC. I'm just not ready to put him in the same camp athletically as the elite tight ends. YMMV.

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theToes said:

Is he worth picking up if it means dropping either Cameron or Finley?

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monk said:

What % of a waiver budget do you think this guy is worth?

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JetMaxx said:

What I liked last night:

Showed toughness by taking a wicked hit on the first play and staying in.

Displayed conditioning when he caught a long pass and stayed in the game. Scored on the next play.

He rarely came off the field. Huge plus, especially on a Manning led offense because if he's on the field and Manning sees a mismatch he'll find him. Evidenced by the TD when he was wide open. Manning called that on the line.

On his other TD he showed a great feel for TE route running when he ran half speed to set up the LB then once he was even he was leavin by turning on another gear.

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Boomer1 said:

Whats amazing to me is some of you would spend 75% of the entire's years WW budget on a 1 week performance. I"m sure he could be had for $30-$35 in our league ($100 yearly budget) but feel that is a stretch even.

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Raider Nation said:

JetMaxx said:

What I liked last night:

Showed toughness by taking a wicked hit on the first play and staying in.

Displayed conditioning when he caught a long pass and stayed in the game. Scored on the next play.

He rarely came off the field. Huge plus, especially on a Manning led offense because if he's on the field and Manning sees a mismatch he'll find him. Evidenced by the TD when he was wide open. Manning called that on the line.

On his other TD he showed a great feel for TE route running when he ran half speed to set up the LB then once he was even he was leavin by turning on another gear.

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He never came off the field. Julius was out there for every snap Manning took. No other Denver receiver did that.

http://www.milehighreport.com/2013/9/6/4701684/denver-broncos-vs-baltimore-ravens-snap-counts

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BigSteelThrill said:

Boomer1 said:

Whats amazing to me is some of you would spend 75% of the entire's years WW budget on a 1 week performance. I"m sure he could be had for $30-$35 in our league ($100 yearly budget) but feel that is a stretch even.

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I had him in all 3 of my leagues before the game ever started. If I needed him now, and I didnt have a TE, I would consider spending 75%. Think: Colston.

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Denver Broncos tight end Julius Thomas has been an "Around The League Podcast" favorite since the former Portland State basketball player began running with the starters in offseason practices.

Although fantasy football "experts" who missed the boat on Thursday's 110-yard, two-touchdown performance have cautioned that the best performance by a Broncos tight end since 2002 is unrepeatable, Peyton Manning wants to know how defenses are going to stop his new weapon.

"I am not sure how they will answer it, or if they will, but it will be interesting to see how teams play Julius all season," Manning said, via the Broncos' official website. "He is a big guy, he definitely will make teams have a conversation, and that is what you want."

Manning told "Pro Football Talk" on NBC Sports Network last week that Thomas would play a big role this season. That much was apparent by halftime of Thursday's game, when Thomas had racked up the most yards by a Broncos tight end in the first half since Hall of Famer Shannon Sharpe tallied 154 in November of 1997.

"He responded, did a good job," coach John Fox said, via the Denver Post. "That did not surprise me at all."

Fantasy footballers should not assign "Orange Julius" to the same one-game wonder category as Kevin Ogletree and Frisman Jackson.

Thomas led the team in receiving during the preseason. He was on the field for all 74 snaps in Thursday's win over the Baltimore Ravens. As a fourth-round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, it's telling that the Broncos kept him on the roster through two seasons lost to lingering high-ankle sprains. The coaching staff and front office obviously believe in his talent.

This up-tempo Broncos offense will play more snaps than most while chasing the 2007 Patriots' scoring record. Manning is right. It will be interesting to see how defenses stop Thomas while also devoting extra attention to receivers Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Wes Welker.

You're next on the docket, Tom Coughlin. Pick your poison.

The "Around The League Podcast" is now available on iTunes! Click here to listen and subscribe.

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KingPrawn said:

Is any one concerned that he had a big first half but was relatively quiet the second half? Didn't get to watch the game but did the Baltimore D adjust? If so, will other teams do the same?

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werdnoynek said:

Over reactions are a-plenty week one. Cash in while you can IMO, this will be Julius' best week this season.

IMO.

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Anarchy99 said:

In case people missed it, I never said JT was not a decent fantasy flyer or backup TE. I did say (and still do) that if the DEN Big 3 WR are going to be as productive as many (most?) people feel, JT will not have quite the season that a few people are suggesting (I think someone mentioned like 60 catches and 800+ yards). The history of Manning-led teams has shown that having a 4th player put up decent numbers is rare, as is having 4 players on the same team with 80 targets.

And I still fell that when all the TEs are healthy, they will rotate and one guy will not get all the targets and TE production. The other consideration for the TEs is having to block, and if the RBs struggle to protect Manning, they may have to block more and catch less.

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Run It Up said:

KingPrawn said:

Is any one concerned that he had a big first half but was relatively quiet the second half? Didn't get to watch the game but did the Baltimore D adjust? If so, will other teams do the same?

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There wasn't any additional coverage, he was spending more time blocking. He was the only skill position player not named Peyton Manning to be in on every single offensive snap.

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moleculo said:

Anarchy99 said:

In case people missed it, I never said JT was not a decent fantasy flyer or backup TE. I did say (and still do) that if the DEN Big 3 WR are going to be as productive as many (most?) people feel, JT will not have quite the season that a few people are suggesting (I think someone mentioned like 60 catches and 800+ yards). The history of Manning-led teams has shown that having a 4th player put up decent numbers is rare, as is having 4 players on the same team with 80 targets.

And I still fell that when all the TEs are healthy, they will rotate and one guy will not get all the targets and TE production. The other consideration for the TEs is having to block, and if the RBs struggle to protect Manning, they may have to block more and catch less.

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do you still think 60+ catches and 800+ yards is unrealistic? to get there, he needs to average 4-46 over the remaining 15 games.

IMO, with full benefit of hindsight, this seems realistic - conservative, even.

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PlasmaDogPlasma said:

Whether the stat line is repeatable or not, the snap count probably won't be once Dressen is available. They're going to want to get their run game going better than it did Thursday.

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lexdizzle said:

PlasmaDogPlasma said:

Whether the stat line is repeatable or not, the snap count probably won't be once Dressen is available. They're going to want to get their run game going better than it did Thursday.

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seriously? the guy just had a monster game and manning threw 7 tds, I think he gives them the mismatches they want in the passing game and they wont even need to run it all that much. i still dont know what to think of the ravens defense, but with the schedule the broncos have this may be the toughest game besides the giants that they will have for a while. the only thing i see is if they get a big enough lead that they will run it to run out the clock, but it looks like they may be more inclined to run up the score this year

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JetMaxx said:

Raider Nation said:

JetMaxx said:

What I liked last night:

Showed toughness by taking a wicked hit on the first play and staying in.

Displayed conditioning when he caught a long pass and stayed in the game. Scored on the next play.

He rarely came off the field. Huge plus, especially on a Manning led offense because if he's on the field and Manning sees a mismatch he'll find him. Evidenced by the TD when he was wide open. Manning called that on the line.

On his other TD he showed a great feel for TE route running when he ran half speed to set up the LB then once he was even he was leavin by turning on another gear.

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He never came off the field. Julius was out there for every snap Manning took. No other Denver receiver did that.

http://www.milehighreport.com/2013/9/6/4701684/denver-broncos-vs-baltimore-ravens-snap-counts

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Hoosier16 said:

JetMaxx said:

Raider Nation said:

JetMaxx said:

What I liked last night:

Showed toughness by taking a wicked hit on the first play and staying in.

Displayed conditioning when he caught a long pass and stayed in the game. Scored on the next play.

He rarely came off the field. Huge plus, especially on a Manning led offense because if he's on the field and Manning sees a mismatch he'll find him. Evidenced by the TD when he was wide open. Manning called that on the line.

On his other TD he showed a great feel for TE route running when he ran half speed to set up the LB then once he was even he was leavin by turning on another gear.

Click to expand...

He never came off the field. Julius was out there for every snap Manning took. No other Denver receiver did that.

http://www.milehighreport.com/2013/9/6/4701684/denver-broncos-vs-baltimore-ravens-snap-counts

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People are focusing on snap counts, but I think the more important stat in that link is the number of pass routes he ran. The top TEs tend to be at or near the top on their team. JT had 27 compared to 47, 46, and 43 for Decker, DT, and Welker. That number likely needs to increase (and maybe it will with the return of Dreesen) if he's going to get enough targets to produce as a top TE.

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ImTheScientist said:

moleculo said:

Anarchy99 said:

In case people missed it, I never said JT was not a decent fantasy flyer or backup TE. I did say (and still do) that if the DEN Big 3 WR are going to be as productive as many (most?) people feel, JT will not have quite the season that a few people are suggesting (I think someone mentioned like 60 catches and 800+ yards). The history of Manning-led teams has shown that having a 4th player put up decent numbers is rare, as is having 4 players on the same team with 80 targets.

And I still fell that when all the TEs are healthy, they will rotate and one guy will not get all the targets and TE production. The other consideration for the TEs is having to block, and if the RBs struggle to protect Manning, they may have to block more and catch less.

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do you still think 60+ catches and 800+ yards is unrealistic? to get there, he needs to average 4-46 over the remaining 15 games.

IMO, with full benefit of hindsight, this seems realistic - conservative, even.

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ImTheScientist said:

moleculo said:

Anarchy99 said:

In case people missed it, I never said JT was not a decent fantasy flyer or backup TE. I did say (and still do) that if the DEN Big 3 WR are going to be as productive as many (most?) people feel, JT will not have quite the season that a few people are suggesting (I think someone mentioned like 60 catches and 800+ yards). The history of Manning-led teams has shown that having a 4th player put up decent numbers is rare, as is having 4 players on the same team with 80 targets.

And I still fell that when all the TEs are healthy, they will rotate and one guy will not get all the targets and TE production. The other consideration for the TEs is having to block, and if the RBs struggle to protect Manning, they may have to block more and catch less.

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do you still think 60+ catches and 800+ yards is unrealistic? to get there, he needs to average 4-46 over the remaining 15 games.

IMO, with full benefit of hindsight, this seems realistic - conservative, even.

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DoubleG said:

FDC said:

Graham and Gronk comparisons are understandable considering the timing but not really fair

Graham and Gronk are in historically elite TE range in terms of upside. If JT can approach Gates numbers type upside it should still be highly valued. I can actually see Gates/Thomas athletic comparisons.

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The only problem with the Gates comparisons is that if Gates was just a rookie or 2nd (or 3rd) year guy now, he wouldn't be as dominant positionally speaking (I mean in terms of his value versus other TEs) ...ironically, because Gates himself helped push the position of TE to what it is. That is to say, there are many more "Gates-like" TEs (big, fast, mismatch-causing, move TEs) around now. Graham, Gronk, Finley, V.Davis, Rudolph, etc. While J.Thomas might be in that top tier or two soon, he is in a tier with 3-5 other TEs...at least. Gates WAS a tier (some would argue Gonzo was with him, but the point stands).

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Run It Up said:

Hoosier16 said:

JetMaxx said:

Raider Nation said:

JetMaxx said:

What I liked last night:

Showed toughness by taking a wicked hit on the first play and staying in.

Displayed conditioning when he caught a long pass and stayed in the game. Scored on the next play.

He rarely came off the field. Huge plus, especially on a Manning led offense because if he's on the field and Manning sees a mismatch he'll find him. Evidenced by the TD when he was wide open. Manning called that on the line.

On his other TD he showed a great feel for TE route running when he ran half speed to set up the LB then once he was even he was leavin by turning on another gear.

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He never came off the field. Julius was out there for every snap Manning took. No other Denver receiver did that.

http://www.milehighreport.com/2013/9/6/4701684/denver-broncos-vs-baltimore-ravens-snap-counts

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People are focusing on snap counts, but I think the more important stat in that link is the number of pass routes he ran. The top TEs tend to be at or near the top on their team. JT had 27 compared to 47, 46, and 43 for Decker, DT, and Welker. That number likely needs to increase (and maybe it will with the return of Dreesen) if he's going to get enough targets to produce as a top TE.

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Except for Gronk... he blocks on over half his snaps.

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PlasmaDogPlasma said:

Whether the stat line is repeatable or not, the snap count probably won't be once Dressen is available. They're going to want to get their run game going better than it did Thursday.

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EBF said:

I'd probably be looking to sell, assuming that I already had a starting TE who I felt good about (and I'm guessing that many JT owners do, especially in dynasty).

The offense is going to be dynamite and maybe it will carry him to a top 5 finish. OTOH, at risk of sounding like a complete hater, I'm not actually convinced that he's an incredible talent. He doesn't look as athletic as Graham or even Finley to me. More like a Marcedes Lewis, with the benefit of playing in a Peyton Manning offense.

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SameSongNDance said:

[icon] said:

SameSongNDance said:

[icon] said:

SameSongNDance said:

EBF said:

I'd probably be looking to sell, assuming that I already had a starting TE who I felt good about (and I'm guessing that many JT owners do, especially in dynasty).

The offense is going to be dynamite and maybe it will carry him to a top 5 finish. OTOH, at risk of sounding like a complete hater, I'm not actually convinced that he's an incredible talent. He doesn't look as athletic as Graham or even Finley to me. More like a Marcedes Lewis, with the benefit of playing in a Peyton Manning offense.

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Lewis as three 40+ catches in 96 starts. JT had a 44 yard catch and run in what, his 2nd ever start? I mean, I'm 100% convinced he's a no-brainer top 5 after a single performance but I think it's safe to assume he's a bit more athletic than Marcedes Lewis.

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I'm not sure how number of catches per start is an effective metric for gauging athleticism?

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So there's absolutely no correlation between the number of longer (40+ yard in this case) passes caught and a players athletic ability? Of course, YAC amongst other things would be more telling but to imply that there's no correlation..

He seemed pretty athletic to me on that 44 yard catch and run.

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I'm not saying there is absolutely no correlation. I'm just not sure that's the best metric as it involves a TON of external variables... Number of targets, Types of routes targeted, Defensive coverages faced, Quality of defenses faced, and most obviously an EXTREMELY small sample size in the case of Julius Thomas. You're welcome to make those sort of comparison in the face of that but I'm not comfortable doing so.

What I AM willing to do, given the absurdly small data set of actual game time (where IMO he looked good but moved akwardly at times).... and look at something fairly standardized: NFL Combine data. Now unfortunately we don't have combine data for Gronk but here's a comparison of Graham and Thomas:

40yd Dash: 4.56 (graham) vs 4.68 (Thomas)

Vert Leap: 38.5" vs 35.5"

Broad Jump: 120" vs 111"

3 Cone Drill: 6.90 vs 6.96sec

60yd Shuttle: 11.76 vs 11.95sec

Height: 6'6" vs 6'5"

Reach: 35" vs 33"

Graham Notes:

STRENGTHSGraham has an outstanding combination of size and speed for the tight end position. A former basketball player, he shows impressive natural athleticism on the gridiron. Despite limited experience, he has capable hands to make a play in traffic. High-character guy. Possesses tremendous potential.

WEAKNESSESGraham lacks game experience with only one year of football under his belt. At this time, work ethic as a pure football player needs to improve. His toughness is in question as he still carries the basketball player label. Blocking tenacity and overall technique need polish and refinement.

Thomas Notes:

STRENGTHSThomas possesses excellent size coupled with enough speed for the NFL. Displays some savvy and athleticism setting up defenders in his stem. Tough matchup for linebackers in man coverage. Has very good ball skills. Plucks and snatches away from frame and adjusts to poorly thrown ball. Can get up the seam for big plays.

WEAKNESSESVery limited football experience. Blocking is not adequate. Lacks the lower body power to get movement. Lacks the upper body power needed to sustain blocks. Very raw in pass protection. Displays hip stiffness cutting out of his stem. Still developing his awareness against zone coverage. Drops the occasional pass.

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The numbers, combined with the scout analysis of the two players tell me two things. Thomas has very solid speed given his size, but isn't as fluid or naturally athletic as Graham (or Gronk IMO). Notice there are multiple knocks on Thomas' athleticism and they use words like enough and some.... whereas for Graham the knocks are on polish/toughness and they use words like tremendous, impressive, and outstanding describing his athleticism and potential?

Thomas looked very good last night but also looked akward and robotic at times. IMO his long catches had as much to do with Peyton identifying broken coverage as it did with him using his athleticism to get open and to gain YAC. I'm just not ready to put him in the same camp athletically as the elite tight ends. YMMV.

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I'll preface this with saying I never said he possessed elite athleticism, just that he was more athletic than Marcedes Lewis.

I took the time to read through this entire thread the other day and I believe the comparison to Graham has already been made somewhere in this thread. Then I think someone (was it EBF?) posted Vernon Davis's combine results to show what a true freak looked like. I thought the conclusion drawn was that it's not very fair to compare TEs to both Graham and Davis, at least, I'm not doing so with JT.

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Restricted said:

Run It Up said:

KingPrawn said:

Is any one concerned that he had a big first half but was relatively quiet the second half? Didn't get to watch the game but did the Baltimore D adjust? If so, will other teams do the same?

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There wasn't any additional coverage, he was spending more time blocking. He was the only skill position player not named Peyton Manning to be in on every single offensive snap.

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Even if the defense adjusted, it went toward him leaving the WR's to do damage. At the begining of a game if the defense plans for JT in a similar way, the WR's will benefit forcing halftime adjustments in that direction giving JT one on one in the second half.

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DeaLerZ said:

all this negative talk is silly... it was the guys first NFL game... he exploded

he passed the eye ball test, is going to play a huge role in the offense, is a perfect compliment to Welker in the middle, is a huge red zone target with great hands, has great speed and athleticism, Peyton loves him, linebackers and safeties will have difficulty covering him all year due to speed and size... and not to mention Peyton Manning is throwing the ball to him....

honestly if you are not expecting this guy to have a huge year after seeing what he did on Thursday than it is just because you weren't ballzy enough to pick him up before everyone else did... stop the Pessimism and get over yourself

75 rec, 950 yds, 10tds

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Phenix said:

Really dude, how did Ogletree do after Game 1 last year?

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Hoosier16 said:

JetMaxx said:

Raider Nation said:

JetMaxx said:

What I liked last night:

Showed toughness by taking a wicked hit on the first play and staying in.

Displayed conditioning when he caught a long pass and stayed in the game. Scored on the next play.

He rarely came off the field. Huge plus, especially on a Manning led offense because if he's on the field and Manning sees a mismatch he'll find him. Evidenced by the TD when he was wide open. Manning called that on the line.

On his other TD he showed a great feel for TE route running when he ran half speed to set up the LB then once he was even he was leavin by turning on another gear.

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He never came off the field. Julius was out there for every snap Manning took. No other Denver receiver did that.

http://www.milehighreport.com/2013/9/6/4701684/denver-broncos-vs-baltimore-ravens-snap-counts

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People are focusing on snap counts, but I think the more important stat in that link is the number of pass routes he ran. The top TEs tend to be at or near the top on their team. JT had 27 compared to 47, 46, and 43 for Decker, DT, and Welker. That number likely needs to increase (and maybe it will with the return of Dreesen) if he's going to get enough targets to produce as a top TE.

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Buffaloes said:

Phenix said:

Really dude, how did Ogletree do after Game 1 last year?

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what does Ogletree have to do with the starting TE in Peyton Manning's offence?

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Phenix said:

Buffaloes said:

Phenix said:

Really dude, how did Ogletree do after Game 1 last year?

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what does Ogletree have to do with the starting TE in Peyton Manning's offence?

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The fact that anyone player can blow up in the first week of the year and do nothing afterwards.

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Sinn Fein said:

Serious question for anyone:

How would you prepare to defend the Broncos?

A. Focus on stopping run game

B. Focus on stopping Julius Thomas and/or TE

C. Focus on stopping Demaryius Thomas and/or Eric Decker/ outside WRs

D. Focus on stopping Wes Welker and/or slot WR

Despite J.Thomas' big game, I think he is still low on the priority list for opposing defensive coordinators compared to "known" dangers in Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker - who incidentally also had big games on Thursday. Defenses generally can't stop everything - so I expect that J. Thomas will continue to get opportunities to make plays. With Manning at QB, he will find the mismatches.

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Beerguzzler said:

You guys know Dreesen didn't play right? I would be trying to sell high on Thomas.

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Beerguzzler said:

You guys know Dreesen didn't play right? I would be trying to sell high on Thomas.

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Sinn Fein said:

Serious question for anyone:

How would you prepare to defend the Broncos?

A. Focus on stopping run game

B. Focus on stopping Julius Thomas and/or TE

C. Focus on stopping Demaryius Thomas and/or Eric Decker/ outside WRs

D. Focus on stopping Wes Welker and/or slot WR

Despite J.Thomas' big game, I think he is still low on the priority list for opposing defensive coordinators compared to "known" dangers in Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker - who incidentally also had big games on Thursday. Defenses generally can't stop everything - so I expect that J. Thomas will continue to get opportunities to make plays. With Manning at QB, he will find the mismatches.

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Beerguzzler said:

You guys know Dreesen didn't play right? I would be trying to sell high on Thomas.

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