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***Official Julius Thomas Hype Train*** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter gianmarco
- Start date
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
I'm in.
purestrength
Footballguy
I noticed in free-agent bidding this week, JT often went for the maximum amount or close to it.
In FBG leagues (where TEs get 1.5 per reception), my bid of $972 (out of a possible $1,000) was usually too low.
In FBG leagues (where TEs get 1.5 per reception), my bid of $972 (out of a possible $1,000) was usually too low.
Buffaloes
Footballguy
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Dreessen is still not practicing and is almost certainly going to be out again in week 2, which means Julius Thomas will be getting all of the offensive snaps again this week. I'm starting him over Greg Olsen. 
Van Dyman
Footballguy
Or not. I snagged Thomas off the WW this week and immediately traded him for GRONK!!! 10-team league with a few guppies.
Thomas will probably have an excellent season but there's more hype than history with JT, and the hype could take a swift nosedive if Decker or the running game gets going. Anyone looking to cash in should probably move quickly.
yetiknight
Footballguy
Hoping and expecting another good to great game this week. Witten was unstoppable last week vs. NYG and there are injuries adding to it as well. I believe there is a strong chance he grabs 2-3 scores this week. He'll be fighting Welker for red zone targets all year IMO. Honestly, Peyton might get 5 or 6 more this week. Its just hard to imagine the Giants getting enough pressure on him to help their secondary. After another big game, I expect I will get a very nice prize in return for Thomas.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Good to see him produce once again. There's no doubt at this point that he's an every week starter.
Buffaloes
Footballguy
shadyridr
Footballguy
lol awesome
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
monk said:
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
Whoa... what's with the anger?fantasycurse42 said:
grateful zed
Footballguy
fantasycurse42 said:
GoodLloydHaveMercy
Footballguy
Seriously the MODS should be banning a**hats like this guy for mucking up threads with this crap... Go screw around in the ff today boards before u get another thread lockedfantasycurse42 said:
Better yet just stick to playing diablo and Starcraft or civilization III and eating hot pockets in your mommas basement and stop stirring stuff up just because u disagree with somebody else's opinion
/end rant
Train could slow a little with Clady's injury. Broncos are likely to add blocking help to Manning's blind side - which probably means more blocking from the TEs. If Dreessen is healthy, he'll get more blocking assignments. If not, Thomas will probably be asked to stay and block more frequently.
Broncos could run more two-TE sets, but that will come at the expense of Welker and/or Decker. It will also help defenses better key on the receiving threats. Either way, there could be a reduced number of routes for Thomas going forward.
Broncos could run more two-TE sets, but that will come at the expense of Welker and/or Decker. It will also help defenses better key on the receiving threats. Either way, there could be a reduced number of routes for Thomas going forward.
cstu
Footballguy
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
apparently someone got into their parents liquor cabinet.I fished the guy with a joke and he still hasn't gotten over it. Eventually he'll come to terms and cool off.
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lol how do you even know all those games they play? and you're giving him #### lmao go get your own hot pocket
how did benching him for cook work out? Believe in JT!Good news for JT owners.
flapgreen
Footballguy
Nucker101
Footballguy
Wouldn't have made a difference since I got smoked in the leagues I started Cook in over him. Lesson learned.Shawn said:how did benching him for cook work out? Believe in JT!Good news for JT owners.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Thomas is a pretty bad pass blocker at this point. I doubt Denver keeps him in to block too much. Honestly, he probably does Denver more good as an outlet receiver in a pass pattern than trying to slow an oncoming rusher.
2 TE sets come almost exclusively at the expense of Welker. Demaryius and Decker are outside receivers, they're on the field in almost all formations. Against New York, Welker was on the field for 49 snaps. Virgil Green, Denver's second TE, was on the field for 27 snaps. If you add Welker's snaps and Green's snaps together, you get 76 snaps, which just so happens to be the exact number of offensive plays Denver ran against the Giants. This is not a coincidence. Snaps are a zero sum game between the slot receiver and the second tight end.
Some more snap math: Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas combined to miss 12 snaps. Andre Caldwell and Jacob Tamme each got 6 snaps. Again, everything lines up perfectly. 6 of the snaps Decker/Thomas missed came because Caldwell was on the field, which means one of the outside WRs probably needed a breather so Denver subbed in their backup outside WR. The other 6 snaps came with Denver's 3rd TE on the field, because Denver ran a half dozen 3TE sets in the 2nd half to get the running game jump-started. Knowshon Moreno + Montee Ball + Ronnie Hillman = 76 snaps. Again, everything works out perfectly because Denver is always in 1-back sets. Julius Thomas played all 76 snaps, because the in-line TE plays in all formations.
Denver runs such a wonderful offense because it's so predictable. Every single formation features an in-line TE (currently Julius), two outside receivers (currently Demaryius and Decker), and an RB (currently a committee, although Hillman only received 2 snaps against New York and seems to be on his way out). After that, Denver alternates between a third receiver (Welker) or a second TE (Green). Outside of some truly rare events (such as the half-dozen snaps Denver spent in a 3-TE set against New York), you can always tell ahead of time exactly how the snaps are going to break down.
That's why it's going to be so important to see what Denver does with Dreessen when he comes back. If Dreessen takes over as the 1st string in-line TE, Julius Thomas will fall from playing 100% of Denver's offensive snaps to playing about 33%. That's a pretty rough tumble.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I figuratively picked him up off waivers this off-season, which is much less exciting.Loving this guy.Thanks FBG! Literally picked him up off waivers in my Dynasty this off-season.
moleculo
Footballguy
that's all well and good, but it doesn't answer the question, "what happens if Clark struggles blocking the opposing RDE?"
snap counts are great, what would be more important is a count of routes run for the TE. I don't think there is any doubt that the TE will be counted on to help out Clark, which means fewer routes run, which (potentially) means fewer targets.
I hear what you said - Julius isn't a fantastic blocker. Well, he doesn't have to be to be effective as part of a double-team. Clark isn't that good either - and that's the problem. If it gets bad enough by the time Dreessen is healthy, we are talking about a serious reduction in JT's production.
A Clady-less O-line struggled in pre-season, and it threw the whole offense off. The conventional wisdom is that the problems were related to people moving around across the line - no Clady, the Lulija experiment, Franklin was out for a while, Beadles (or was it Vasquez?) played some at tackle, etc. Granted, most of that is ironed out row and it's just Clady but we can't ignore that there were troubles without him.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
A few shorter drop backs every game. Not a whole sale change in blocking assignments.
Yes one of Denver's top weapons is only going to be used 33 percent of the time. *rolls eyes*
Plus, Julius Thomas led the team in receptions in pre-season without Clady.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
It's not as crazy as you might think. Welker only gets used about 66% of the time. As I pointed out, snaps between the slot receiver and the move TE are a zero-sum game- if Thomas gets moved to the "move", then every time he's on the field it means Welker comes off. Thomas is a weapon in the passing game, but a bigger weapon than Welker? Not by a long shot. Denver's hardly hurting for weapons with Thomas off the field.
Julius Thomas led the team in receptions in pre-season without Clady, but I'm not saying the loss of Clady could potentially impact his playing time. I'm saying the addition of Dreessen could potentially impact his playing time.
I see three possibilities when Dreessen returns. Either Thomas stays at the in-line spot full-time and plays close to 100% of the snaps, or else Thomas stays at the move spot full-time and plays more like 33-40% of the snaps, or else Thomas splits his time between the two and plays anywhere from 60-90% of the snaps. I think the third possibility is most likely, but I cannot dismiss the second possibility out of hand until I see what Denver's doing with Dreessen.
I don't get how all during preseason people were saying "Of course Moreno is going to get the start even though he sucks with the ball in his hands because pass protection is literally the only thing that matters!" and now during the season people are saying "Of course Dreessen isn't going to displace Julius Thomas, pass protection isn't all that important and Thomas is so much better with the ball in his hands!" Julius Thomas is a bad pass blocker. Dreessen is a standout blocker. That's going to matter. Joel Dreessen's blocking advantage is almost certainly going to be enough to eat into Julius' role. It's just a question of how much.
I get what your saying, but as a ball owner he has look terrible running the ball. Therefore Moreno can block and run better so he's going to get the lion's share. On the other hand, Dreessen can block better but the difference between receiving is huge between jt and dree. Imo jt's blocking is adequate enough to where he won't lose playing time. Only time will tell though.
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Adam Harstad
Moderator
Dreessen's receiving is pretty adequate, too, though. I would say that Dreessen is better as a receiver than Thomas is as a blocker. I think the most likely outcome is that Thomas still gets 60-90% of the snaps after Dreessen returns (and he's certainly earned them), I just think you have to at least account for the possibility that things aren't quite that rosy.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
I just keep going back to D Clark days on Ind.. he was gold for PManning
I think Peyton likes this guy...
I think Peyton likes this guy...
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
really Joel Dressen now? :shakesmyhead:
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Badgers Fan
Footballguy
Has Cecil or anyone plugged in to the Broncos discussed how Clady's injury could affect Thomas? Has there been chatter Dressen could take a solid chunk of snaps from him?
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Blocking matters more to an NFL head coach than it does to a fantasy GM. HTH
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
thanks for the HTH
Im well aware of how john fox operates I was one the lone knowshon defenders.
Julius Thomas is a dynamic offensive threat, I dont see him coming off the field for Dressen. HTH
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Yeah, who knows exactly how it'll play out. I'm all in on Thomas, but IMO it's something to be cognizant of. Thomas has looked good, but I think that the offense is just fine as far as weapons go with Dreesen, DT, Welker, Decker on the field if they decide that an extra + blocker is more important with Clady out. Dismissing the possibility out of hand seems foolish to me.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
What's the word on Dreesen? Has he started practicing yet?
Run It Up
Footballguy
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Amazing then that DT and Welker were both All-Pros way before Thomas arrived on the scene. You're drinking way too much Kool aid if you think that Julius is the guy making the offense run. At all. He's the guy benefiting from the extra attention paid to the other guys. Yes, he's good enough to take advantage of the double teams thrown at DT and Welker, but tons of people are taking this way too far. Again, he's not Jimmy Graham.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
imho D Thomas gets the doubles, DThomas is one of his hot reads, Peyton loves the quick checkdown for the TE, always has.. should continue to be gold moving forward, hes in my lineup until further notice...
I think both of you are right to an extent
No he is not Jimmy Graham - yet the difference between him and Dreessen could be enough to see a difference in the offense. Still though that offense is going to put up points either way.
