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***Official Julius Thomas Hype Train*** (1 Viewer)

I'd like to see a breakdown on how often he stayed in and blocked as opposed to the first two games. 3-37 on 4 targets is mildly concerning even with a TD.

I think Cameron is clearly ahead of him in the rankings going forward.

 
I'd like to see a breakdown on how often he stayed in and blocked as opposed to the first two games. 3-37 on 4 targets is mildly concerning even with a TD.

I think Cameron is clearly ahead of him in the rankings going forward.
I think Cameron is ahead of him for now for sure, but I don't trust the Browns offense in the slightest and JT is currently playing on the best team and best offense in the NFL.

 
I'd like to see a breakdown on how often he stayed in and blocked as opposed to the first two games. 3-37 on 4 targets is mildly concerning even with a TD.

I think Cameron is clearly ahead of him in the rankings going forward.
Maybe, but even the best tight ends are gonna have their down weeks. It is inevitable that Julius Thomas will have a few of those 2 catches for 20 yards weeks, as will most, but I think 4-5 catches a week should continue to be the norm, with a good chance to score every week.

 
I'd like to see a breakdown on how often he stayed in and blocked as opposed to the first two games. 3-37 on 4 targets is mildly concerning even with a TD.

I think Cameron is clearly ahead of him in the rankings going forward.
Maybe, but even the best tight ends are gonna have their down weeks. It is inevitable that Julius Thomas will have a few of those 2 catches for 20 yards weeks, as will most, but I think 4-5 catches a week should continue to be the norm, with a good chance to score every week.
The reason I find it concerning is that his lowest target number came the game after they lost Clady. Obviously 1 game doesn't make a trend, but it's not something I'm going to just dismiss.

 
True. I just think targets will vary from week to week in that offense, but if you have any of those three WRs or Julius, you just start them every week and take the occasional bad week with the (often) really good.

 
I also think it's a good sign that Denver's first play of the game was designed for Julius...I think it was a little screen that he gained ~10 yds on but it was called back for either holding or illegal procedure.

 
As high as I am on JT, fact is he's ranked 11th in targets (20), 9th in receptions (14) and 7th in yards (194) yet he's still ranked 3rd on a PPG basis. Obviously, TDs (4) have played a huge role in this. He currently has the highest TD to reception ratio amongst all TEs (3.5:1) and I'm not going to lie all these stats are a bit disconcerting. There's absolutely no doubt that he's a TE1 but he's going to need to see a bump in targets, receptions and yards if he wants to keep pace and remain "elite" (unless you think he's going to pull a 2011 Gronk).

 
SameSongNDance said:
As high as I am on JT, fact is he's ranked 11th in targets (20), 9th in receptions (14) and 7th in yards (194) yet he's still ranked 3rd on a PPG basis. Obviously, TDs (4) have played a huge role in this. He currently has the highest TD to reception ratio amongst all TEs (3.5:1) and I'm not going to lie all these stats are a bit disconcerting. There's absolutely no doubt that he's a TE1 but he's going to need to see a bump in targets, receptions and yards if he wants to keep pace and remain "elite" (unless you think he's going to pull a 2011 Gronk).
He is being underfed, but the fact remains the targets he does receive are the targets you want him to receive, the ones that count.

 
I'd like to see a breakdown on how often he stayed in and blocked as opposed to the first two games. 3-37 on 4 targets is mildly concerning even with a TD.

I think Cameron is clearly ahead of him in the rankings going forward.
Week 1 - played 74 out of 74 snaps, ran routes on 27 plays (targeted on 7), blocked on 47 plays (26 runs, 21 passes)

Week 2 - played 76 out of 76 snaps, ran routes on 34 plays (targeted on 9), blocked on 45 plays (31 runs, 14 passes)

Week 3 - played 77 out of 79 snaps, ran routes on 31 plays (targeted on 4), blocked on 46 plays (39 runs, 7 passes)

The low targets was just variance. Thomas wasn't kept in to block more because of Clady's injury. In fact, I believe on 2/3s of Denver's offensive plays in the first half, there was no TE on Clark's side of the formation. Clark is no Clady, but Denver trusted him on an island. The main adjustment they made was emphasizing the short passing game- Peyton's 2.12 seconds to throw was the lowest in the league last week. Although a lot of that was just taking what Oakland's defense gave them, too, because Oakland spent the majority of the game showing a 6-man box, just daring Denver to run the ball or check it down (which also explains why Denver averaged around 6 yards per carry rushing).

Denver ran some 3-TE sets to open the second half, but that wasn't really about covering for Clark- they'd used the formation last week against the Giants before Clady got hurt, too. I've heard some speculation that, since they were up big, Denver was just using the opportunity to get some extra stuff on film for opposing defenses to prepare for. They wound up splitting Tamme, Thomas, and the RB (Moreno?) out wide and using the 3-TE set as a primarily passing formation against Oakland.

Thomas's target total in week 3 was just random variation.

 
Sigmund Bloom said in "On the Couch" that he sees the TEs as Graham, Gronk, Cameron and everyone else. I think he is missing the boat on JT. In my non PPR, Cameron is closer to JT than he is Graham in points so far. I know JT won't get the targets those other guys will, but his efficiency and red zone chances should be on par due to the incredible rate at which Denver is moving the ball.

 
Sigmund Bloom said in "On the Couch" that he sees the TEs as Graham, Gronk, Cameron and everyone else. I think he is missing the boat on JT. In my non PPR, Cameron is closer to JT than he is Graham in points so far. I know JT won't get the targets those other guys will, but his efficiency and red zone chances should be on par due to the incredible rate at which Denver is moving the ball.
Manning's TD rate WILL go down -- he's not throwing 64 TDs this year. JT's TD rate iWILL go down too -- he's not catching 21 TD passes. TDs are generally far more volatile than are catches and yards. I also think exactly what Thomas is long term is still a question -- he might end up being a really good player. But then again, he might just be a solid player in a spectacular situation who's just on a crazy hot streak at the moment.

 
Sigmund Bloom said in "On the Couch" that he sees the TEs as Graham, Gronk, Cameron and everyone else. I think he is missing the boat on JT. In my non PPR, Cameron is closer to JT than he is Graham in points so far. I know JT won't get the targets those other guys will, but his efficiency and red zone chances should be on par due to the incredible rate at which Denver is moving the ball.
Manning's TD rate WILL go down -- he's not throwing 64 TDs this year. JT's TD rate iWILL go down too -- he's not catching 21 TD passes. TDs are generally far more volatile than are catches and yards. I also think exactly what Thomas is long term is still a question -- he might end up being a really good player. But then again, he might just be a solid player in a spectacular situation who's just on a crazy hot streak at the moment.
No, JT won't catch 21 TD passes, but 12 TDs is a real possiblity at this point.

The thing is, he doesn't have to be an extremely gifted player to be a fantasy stud; he just needs great athletic ability, a great situation, and the opportunity to succeed Seems to me that he has all three.

 
Sigmund Bloom said in "On the Couch" that he sees the TEs as Graham, Gronk, Cameron and everyone else. I think he is missing the boat on JT. In my non PPR, Cameron is closer to JT than he is Graham in points so far. I know JT won't get the targets those other guys will, but his efficiency and red zone chances should be on par due to the incredible rate at which Denver is moving the ball.
Manning's TD rate WILL go down -- he's not throwing 64 TDs this year. JT's TD rate iWILL go down too -- he's not catching 21 TD passes. TDs are generally far more volatile than are catches and yards. I also think exactly what Thomas is long term is still a question -- he might end up being a really good player. But then again, he might just be a solid player in a spectacular situation who's just on a crazy hot

streak at the moment.
No, JT won't catch 21 TD passes, but 12 TDs is a real possiblity at this point.The thing is, he doesn't have to be an extremely gifted player to be a fantasy stud; he just needs great athletic ability, a great situation, and the opportunity to succeed Seems to me that he has all three.
I was mostly speaking from the dynasty viewpoint. If we're talking redraft i agree it doesn't matter so much.

 
I'll take it, would be nice to get 70 yards. The unfortunate part was that a couple of times Manning went to look for him, and got pressured nearly every time into having to throw it away or something.

 
Cowboys just gave up a monster game to Gates, especially down the middle seam. Julius will be a big part of the game plan this week

 
I'll take it, would be nice to get 70 yards. The unfortunate part was that a couple of times Manning went to look for him, and got pressured nearly every time into having to throw it away or something.
I'm thinking of bailing now. He has only had 4 targets each of the past 2 weeks and has not exceed 47 yds in 3 weeks.

I might try to get a receiver for him ... what do you think he could get you in return? Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Marcus Colston, Hakeem Nicks, James Jones ?

 
I'll take it, would be nice to get 70 yards. The unfortunate part was that a couple of times Manning went to look for him, and got pressured nearly every time into having to throw it away or something.
I'm thinking of bailing now. He has only had 4 targets each of the past 2 weeks and has not exceed 47 yds in 3 weeks.

I might try to get a receiver for him ... what do you think he could get you in return? Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Marcus Colston, Hakeem Nicks, James Jones ?
Not sure if I would do that unless you have a viable backup TE, like maybe Heath Miller. But yes, if you need WR help, you could try for one of those receivers on a team that needs a better TE.

 
I'll take it, would be nice to get 70 yards. The unfortunate part was that a couple of times Manning went to look for him, and got pressured nearly every time into having to throw it away or something.
I'm thinking of bailing now. He has only had 4 targets each of the past 2 weeks and has not exceed 47 yds in 3 weeks.

I might try to get a receiver for him ... what do you think he could get you in return? Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Marcus Colston, Hakeem Nicks, James Jones ?
don't bail until next week if you must

 
I'll take it, would be nice to get 70 yards. The unfortunate part was that a couple of times Manning went to look for him, and got pressured nearly every time into having to throw it away or something.
I'm thinking of bailing now. He has only had 4 targets each of the past 2 weeks and has not exceed 47 yds in 3 weeks.

I might try to get a receiver for him ... what do you think he could get you in return? Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Marcus Colston, Hakeem Nicks, James Jones ?
don't bail until next week if you must
If he has another ho hum week his value will plummet.

 
I'll take it, would be nice to get 70 yards. The unfortunate part was that a couple of times Manning went to look for him, and got pressured nearly every time into having to throw it away or something.
I'm thinking of bailing now. He has only had 4 targets each of the past 2 weeks and has not exceed 47 yds in 3 weeks.

I might try to get a receiver for him ... what do you think he could get you in return? Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Marcus Colston, Hakeem Nicks, James Jones ?
don't bail until next week if you must
If he has another ho hum week his value will plummet.
Exactly. He's still probably ranked top 5 in every league but a 2/25 week and he's hovering near 10 with two subpar weeks staring potential partners in the face. I'm looking to deal this week, Gronk health willing.

 
I'll take it, would be nice to get 70 yards. The unfortunate part was that a couple of times Manning went to look for him, and got pressured nearly every time into having to throw it away or something.
I'm thinking of bailing now. He has only had 4 targets each of the past 2 weeks and has not exceed 47 yds in 3 weeks.

I might try to get a receiver for him ... what do you think he could get you in return? Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Marcus Colston, Hakeem Nicks, James Jones ?
don't bail until next week if you must
If he has another ho hum week his value will plummet.
I would buy from any owner bailing. Any player on that offense is capable of putting up huge numbers in a given week. He has a high floor, and high ceiling.

 
I'll take it, would be nice to get 70 yards. The unfortunate part was that a couple of times Manning went to look for him, and got pressured nearly every time into having to throw it away or something.
I'm thinking of bailing now. He has only had 4 targets each of the past 2 weeks and has not exceed 47 yds in 3 weeks.

I might try to get a receiver for him ... what do you think he could get you in return? Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Marcus Colston, Hakeem Nicks, James Jones ?
don't bail until next week if you must
If he has another ho hum week his value will plummet.
Exactly. He's still probably ranked top 5 in every league but a 2/25 week and he's hovering near 10 with two subpar weeks staring potential partners in the face. I'm looking to deal this week, Gronk health willing.
I think this is premature. Dallas got burned by Gates last week, so I think this should be a rebound game.

Also, I don't think Gronk plays until week 6.

 
If you're looking to sell, might as well do it now. A 2nd bad week in a row hurts his value more than a good week helps it IMO.

 
If you're looking to sell, might as well do it now. A 2nd bad week in a row hurts his value more than a good week helps it IMO.
Sure, if you think he's going to fall of the map this week. If he puts up anything close to Gates (1-136-1), then his perceived value perceives significantly. To each his own. Any other TE has a similar down week and no one would think twice.

 
If you're looking to sell, might as well do it now.

A 2nd bad week in a row hurts his value more than a good week helps it IMO.
Sure, if you think he's going to fall of the map

this week. If he puts up anything close to Gates (1-136-1), then his perceived value perceives significantly. To each his own. Any other TE has a similar down week and no one would think

twice.
This just isn't true. Thomas is currently perceived (correctly IMO) as a top 5 redraft TE. If he has a big game this week, he'll still be seen as a top-5 TE. If he has another off week, for some people, doubts will start to creep in -- it's the nature of the beast with an out of nowhere player that blows up with minimal prior track record. It says nothing at all about Thomas himself or what I think he will or will not do moving forward.

 
If you're looking to sell, might as well do it now. A 2nd bad week in a row hurts his value more than a good week helps it IMO.
Sure, if you think he's going to fall of the map this week. If he puts up anything close to Gates (1-136-1), then his perceived value perceives significantly. To each his own. Any other TE has a similar down week and no one would think twice.
Damn. That must have been a helluva catch by Gates.

 
If you're looking to sell, might as well do it now. A 2nd bad week in a row hurts his value more than a good week helps it IMO.
Sure, if you think he's going to fall of the map this week. If he puts up anything close to Gates (1-136-1), then his perceived value perceives significantly. To each his own. Any other TE has a similar down week and no one would think twice.
Damn. That must have been a helluva catch by Gates.
It's like the one pitch strikeout the side thing in Bugs Bunny. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOt2iw-7n6A

 
The Julius vs. Cameron debate is still very much alive.

Cook has fallen off the map. Everyone else has normalized for the most part.

In dynasty, as I've been saying, I think it's like this:

Graham/Gronk (assuming he looks like himself when he returns)

Cameron/Julius

Eifert

With a win-now tier including Witten and possibly Vernon Davis

.

.

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Everyone else.

 
And nobody in my league has been interested in him because "he's not proven." I wonder how many weeks in a row he needs to continue to do this to prove it?

 

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