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***Official Julius Thomas Hype Train*** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter gianmarco
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
For those pimping JThomas as being fantasy relevant in 2013, please post your projections for all Broncos players for the season and total numbers for Manning. I would be interested to see how gaudy they are, as there is only one football to go around. IMO, Manning's numbers will not be that much different from last year. IMO, a lot of the TE production from last year will be offloaded to Welker.
I don't really care about the last guy on the depth chart, so DThomas, Welker, Decker, JThomas, Dreessen, Tamme, "other WR" and "all RBs" would suffice. TIA . . .
I don't really care about the last guy on the depth chart, so DThomas, Welker, Decker, JThomas, Dreessen, Tamme, "other WR" and "all RBs" would suffice. TIA . . .
(HULK)
(Smash)
I don't do projections, but I would be suprised if Manning's numbers are not significantly better this season. There are better pass catching options for him this season, and their schedule against the pass is incredibly favorable.
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
Hard to project. Manning throws to the open man, provided there is one. And this year you are adding a new target in Welker, and essentially a new target in Julius. I think it will be spread quite well, which will lead to disappointing overall numbers for the WRs. That may not be a bad thing for Julius though. I think 45-55 catches for 600-700 yards and 5-8 TD is about where he should be averaged. I know some will say less, and some will say more, but that's about where I see him ending up.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Only 14 times did a QB have more passing TD than Peyton had last year. And only 23 times did a QB have more passing yards than Manning had in 2012. My point being, there is not a lot of oxygen left in the rarified air he's already been breathing.
In the main, I agree with your assessment (better receivers), however I do not agree that automatically his numbers spike even higher. Manning had his second best season statistically last year. Asking for much more is expecting a lot. If DEN is as good as people say they are, they will not need to pass and pass and pass. Fox is generally a conservative coach. If DEN gets up big, I don't see them running the no huddle all game and passing much in the second half. If their defense remains solid, they will have no real need to keep passing late in games. In the end, I am not sure Manning has many more passing attempts compared to last year. He might be a little more efficient, but I don't see him passing for 6,000 yards with 60 TDs. I would guess 4800/40. That's still one of the best seasons ever by a QB.
To make that work projection wise, for JThomas to have a big season, that will mean that the Big 3 get substantially less production than most people are suggesting, someone gets hurt and misses extensive time, or the Broncos will not play or target the other WR/TE/RB on the roster pretty much at all. On these boards, people usually want to allocate 98% of the production to the key players and about 2% to the other guys, but that doesn't happen in reality.
Personally, I see Decker and DThomas losing a little bit of production compared to last year, but adding Welker will have a huge negative impact on the TE production from last year. And while JThomas may be doing well as the only healthy TE on the roster right now, I am not prepared to anoint him as the only TE that will play. I don't see DEN throwing Tamme and Dreessen overboard for a player with one career reception.
So IMO, 45-55/600-700/5-8 is too high a projection. But that's just me. I think if people actually do the math on this, they will see that short of projecting Manning for the greatest season ever by a QB, the numbers won't come out right.
I bring this up because in recent years people said the same thing about the Patriots offense. Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez were all going to have career years. Lloyd would add 1200/10. Players like Edelman and Branch would chip in. Woodhead would add decent numbers out of the backfield, etc. When you added up the numbers, Brady would have had to have 6500/60 by adding up the numbers. Clearly that was not going to happen (and clearly did not).
Clifford
Footballguy
Isn't it enough to just say your opinion and disagree? Demanding that others back up their opinion is a little much, even though I get what you are saying. Honestly I think what happens is that Decker takes a major step back in TDs.
Let's assume Manning has a nice season: 4900 yards, 35 Tds
Let's give DT 1500 and 10
Welker 1100 and 4
Decker 850 and 6
That's 1450 yards and 15 TDs left to spread around. I see no reason why Thomas could not get about half the yards (for around 725) and 10-11 receiving TDs. And that's leaving 725 to split between Hillman, Ball, and Dreesen/Tamme.
Let's pencil in Hillman for 300 as the obvious 3rd down back. Still 425 to distribute between Ball and the other two TEs.
Think a top 8 finish for Thomas is reasonable IF he continues his development curve.
Let's assume Manning has a nice season: 4900 yards, 35 Tds
Let's give DT 1500 and 10
Welker 1100 and 4
Decker 850 and 6
That's 1450 yards and 15 TDs left to spread around. I see no reason why Thomas could not get about half the yards (for around 725) and 10-11 receiving TDs. And that's leaving 725 to split between Hillman, Ball, and Dreesen/Tamme.
Let's pencil in Hillman for 300 as the obvious 3rd down back. Still 425 to distribute between Ball and the other two TEs.
Think a top 8 finish for Thomas is reasonable IF he continues his development curve.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Again, maybe I am picking nits, but if you look back at teams with Manning at QB, historically the production from "everybody else" is a much higher percentage and there haven't been years where the 4th receiving option has had 725/11. While every year is different, one would think that a QB that has been around for 15 years will have a distribution pattern similar to what he's had for all the other years.
I don't care if the numbers add up 100%, but when they are not close to realistic, that tells me things won't work out that way.
Clifford
Footballguy
I increased Manning's numbers by 300 yards and took away 2 TDs. What is not realistic?
Run It Up
Footballguy
I haven't done my Broncos projections since July, which have changed significantly with the decreased roles of Decker and the potentially nagging injury of Welker.
I expect at least:
85/1000/10 from DT
90/1000/7 from Welker
60/700/7 from Decker
60/700/9 from JT
40/400/3 for all 3 RBs
The rest to the WR 4/5 and TE 2/3 - a little light on DT, I think his ceiling is much higher.
I expect at least:
85/1000/10 from DT
90/1000/7 from Welker
60/700/7 from Decker
60/700/9 from JT
40/400/3 for all 3 RBs
The rest to the WR 4/5 and TE 2/3 - a little light on DT, I think his ceiling is much higher.
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
Tamme caught 55 last year and Dreessen caught 41. You telling me Julius, if he starts, can't get at least 45? Even with Welker?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I agree that JThomas is worth the low cost to pick him up. I just would be cautious to expect him to have a profound role with the WRs they will have on the field most of the time.
As for Clifford's projections, I don't think they are as crazy as some others that I have seen, but I still think the role he carved out for JThomas might be a bit bigger and the role of the other secondary puzzle pieces too small compared to what will happen.
It also doesn't make much sense to then carry Dreessen and Tamme and waste over $4 million cap money on guys that would only get 100-200 yards of production from (using Clifford's numbers).
Maybe JThomas is the next breakout TE, but I've been around the block a couple times and seen guys light it up in the preseason before and they did very little in the regular season.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Again, not sure your question hurts my cause. Tamme and Dreesen caught 96 balls. Most are giving 90 receptions to Welker. Where do the 45 receptions for JThomas come from? Do Tamme and Dreessen now get 0 receptions this year?
Clifford
Footballguy
That's 3800 yards. Assuming Manning at least equals last year, that's almost 1k yards for Tarvarres King and two middling TEs.
Run It Up
Footballguy
I was intentionally light all around, I think Decker and JT are gonna be butting heads for targets all season, I think Welker's ceiling is 120 catches... and DT can obviously do better than 1000 yards.
But yes, there will be plenty left to go around - I think Peyton might throw for 5k this year.
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No offense but this all seems like pessimistic nit picking
You get a special talent with a great QB and special things might happen. Simply that is how some look at this.
Similar story, I remember getting laughed at by overpaying for a project talent down the depth chart in the summer of 09 just because I saw something in preseason. I liked him enough I decided to roll the dice and start him his first ever start.
That was Miles Austin. No one would of ever projected 1300 + 11 in 12 starts but it happened.
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
Huh? So we can play the "distribute the catches" game with Welker, but not Thomas? Understood.
Hoss Style
Footballguy
I think these are very reasonable. I know Anarchy99's not hot on this idea, but I think if JT stays on track and injury free that Manning will use a big target that has mismatches in the Redzone. In fact, I know he will (unless he loses his mind this year).
This isn't Indy. Old trends don't neccesarily translate to a new team when a QB moves (new coaches, players, etc). I know Mannings still running most of the show - but it's not an exact copy of what he did in Indy.
I like Cliff's projections - give a +/- of 200 yards to any player and a +/- of 2 TDs as well and I think you'd have a good shot a nailing every guy. In my opinion.
pantherclub
Footballguy
I'm not sure what the arguing is about here. He has shown plenty to be taken as a flyer in the late rounds. Just a matter of which one IMO.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Stokely's catches could go to Thomas, with Tamme and Dressen taking some from the WRs (I think Thomas and Decker's catches both go down a tad, and I don't see Welker catching 90). Of course, I think Decker outproduces Welker, which many disagree with, so there is that.
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Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
Pantherz
Footballguy
You really didn't just go there did you? No problem with the number crunching and points you were making but, might want to reconsider the ole, "BUT I"VE BEEN HERE TEN TEARS! DO YOU KNOW WHO I AM! ". IMHO it doesn't come across well. Kinda like the old "member number" days.
Buffaloes
Footballguy
That's great, but unless you are the only FBG employee to walk off with a 1.000 batting average, I don't see the point of this post
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purestrength
Footballguy
Agree with Pantherz and Buffaloes in the previous two posts. I'm taking a chance on JT. If I'm wrong, so be it. It won't be the first or last time.
Cecil Lammey
Footballguy
I've done plenty of double takes at practice because of this. Both are big and physical, the trick I've learned is JT wears sweats, whereas DT wears shorts.
moleculo
Footballguy
Anarchy99 said:
Code:
att comp pyard ptd pint ruatt ruyard rutd rec recyd rectdPeyton Manning DEN 630 420 5040 40 13 16 -16 0 Brock Osweiler DEN 11 7 78 0 0 2 3 0 Montee Ball DEN 150 600 8 15 120 0Ronnie Hillman DEN 150 675 4 15 120 1Knowshon Moreno DEN 150 630 1 20 160 2Jacob Hester DEN 21 94 1 10 68 1Wes Welker DEN 0 0 0 65 715 2Demaryius Thomas DEN 0 0 0 87 1305 10Eric Decker DEN 0 0 0 78 1014 10Andre Caldwell DEN 0 0 0 13 149 1Tavarres King DEN 0 0 0 9 161 1Trindon Holliday DEN 0 0 0 6 96 1Jacob Tamme DEN 0 0 0 25 275 2Joel Dreessen DEN 0 0 0 15 165 3Virgil Green DEN 0 0 0 15 165 1Julius Thomas DEN 0 0 0 55 605 6- I will wait until the RB battle sorts itself out to adjust them further. I suppose I should take some away from Moreno, but it's not clear who will be the lead back.
- I'm assuming an increase # of pass attempts and running attempts due to the high-tempo offense.
- I say we will be running lots of 2TE sets this year, especially in the 2nd half of games. This will help the running game, and help kill the clock. When we do this, Welker will not be on the field. IMO his role this year will be basically a rich mans Brandon Stokeley.
- 16 rushing attempts for -16 yards for Manning reflects Manning taking a knee to close out every game.
moleculo
Footballguy
define fantasy relevant. You seem to be tilting at the windmill that says everyone on the hype train is projecting 80/100/11...you know, Graham type numbers. I don't think anyone here is saying that, I'm certainly not. My projections are just above - I'm putting JT in around TE15, with roughly TE8 upside. That's pretty good for a guy with one career catch, no?of course, the sky is the limit next year - give JT a year of legit experience under his belt, and the possibility that Decker and possibly Welker walk in FA, and all of a sudden JT has top 3 potential for 2014. That's also worth noting, I think.Anarchy99 said:
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Peyton Manning 16 16 407 601 67.72% 4762.925 36 12 20 20 0 1.00 1 312.5 19.53Anarchy99 said:
Brock Osweiler 5 0 1 2 50.00% 15 0 0 6 -6 0 -1.00 0 0.00
*Montee Ball 16 10 215 865 7 4.02 18 130 7.22 0 2 141.5 8.84
Ronnie Hillman 16 3 152 620 4 4.08 16 125 7.81 0 1 98.5 6.16
Knowshon Moreno 16 3 60 255 1 4.25 30 260 8.67 2 2 69.5 4.34
Lance Ball 16 0 20 82 0 4.10 7 55 7.86 0 13.7 0.86
Demaryius Thomas 16 16 1 5 0 5.00 92 1425 15.49 10 2 202.5 12.66
Eric Decker 16 16 1 6 0 0.00 79 1005 12.72 9 1 154.5 9.66
Wes Welker 16 0 79 880 11.14 6 124 7.75
Andre Caldwell 14 0 18 198 11.00 1 25.8 1.84
Jacob Tamme 16 7 20 205 10.25 1 26.5 1.66
*Julius Thomas 16 8 40 405 10.13 5 70.5 4.41
Joel Dressen 14 7 9 90 10.00 2 21 1.50
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
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swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Peyton Manning 16 16 407 601 67.72% 4762.925 36 12 20 20 0 1.00 1 312.5 19.53
Brock Osweiler 5 0 1 2 50.00% 15 0 0 6 -6 0 -1.00 0 0.00
RB Games GS PaComp PaAtt Comp% PaYd PaTD PaINT RuAtt RuYd RuTD RuAve Rec ReYd ReAve ReTD Fum Lst FF pts FFpts/G
*Montee Ball 16 10 215 865 7 4.02 18 130 7.22 0 2 141.5 8.84
Ronnie Hillman 16 3 152 620 4 4.08 16 125 7.81 0 1 98.5 6.16
Knowshon Moreno 16 3 60 255 1 4.25 30 260 8.67 2 2 69.5 4.34
Lance Ball 16 0 20 82 0 4.10 7 55 7.86 0 13.7 0.86
WR Games GS PaComp PaAtt Comp% PaYd Tot plys PaTD PaINT RuAtt RuYd RuTD RuAve Rec ReYd ReAve ReTD Fum Lst FF pts FFpts/G
Demaryius Thomas 16 16 1 5 0 5.00 92 1425 15.49 10 2 202.5 12.66
Eric Decker 16 16 1 6 0 0.00 79 1005 12.72 9 1 154.5 9.66
Wes Welker 16 0 79 880 11.14 6 124 7.75
Andre Caldwell 14 0 18 198 11.00 1 25.8 1.84
Jacob Tamme 16 7 20 205 10.25 1 26.5 1.66
*Julius Thomas 16 8 40 405 10.13 5 70.5 4.41
Joel Dressen 14 7 9 90 10.00 2 21 1.50
Brock Osweiler 5 0 1 2 50.00% 15 0 0 6 -6 0 -1.00 0 0.00
RB Games GS PaComp PaAtt Comp% PaYd PaTD PaINT RuAtt RuYd RuTD RuAve Rec ReYd ReAve ReTD Fum Lst FF pts FFpts/G
*Montee Ball 16 10 215 865 7 4.02 18 130 7.22 0 2 141.5 8.84
Ronnie Hillman 16 3 152 620 4 4.08 16 125 7.81 0 1 98.5 6.16
Knowshon Moreno 16 3 60 255 1 4.25 30 260 8.67 2 2 69.5 4.34
Lance Ball 16 0 20 82 0 4.10 7 55 7.86 0 13.7 0.86
WR Games GS PaComp PaAtt Comp% PaYd Tot plys PaTD PaINT RuAtt RuYd RuTD RuAve Rec ReYd ReAve ReTD Fum Lst FF pts FFpts/G
Demaryius Thomas 16 16 1 5 0 5.00 92 1425 15.49 10 2 202.5 12.66
Eric Decker 16 16 1 6 0 0.00 79 1005 12.72 9 1 154.5 9.66
Wes Welker 16 0 79 880 11.14 6 124 7.75
Andre Caldwell 14 0 18 198 11.00 1 25.8 1.84
Jacob Tamme 16 7 20 205 10.25 1 26.5 1.66
*Julius Thomas 16 8 40 405 10.13 5 70.5 4.41
Joel Dressen 14 7 9 90 10.00 2 21 1.50
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Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Awesome.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
For those projecting Dreessen and Tamme at 20 receptions or so, IIRC they carry roughly a $7 million cap charge to have them rostered. Why bother keeping them to basically sit on the bench? I would be more inclined to think Thomas will have a bigger role if the Broncos jettison one or both of those guys.
Similarly, for those projecting Welker for 60-65 catches, why pay him $6 million to catch 15 or 20 more balls than Stokley did?
Wearing my GM's hat, it seems like a waste of financial resources to have Thomas (potentially) take on a much larger role while spending $13 million to not fully utilize Welker and have Dreessen and Tamme not do a whole lot.
Similarly, for those projecting Welker for 60-65 catches, why pay him $6 million to catch 15 or 20 more balls than Stokley did?
Wearing my GM's hat, it seems like a waste of financial resources to have Thomas (potentially) take on a much larger role while spending $13 million to not fully utilize Welker and have Dreessen and Tamme not do a whole lot.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
replacements
Footballguy
While I understand your point regarding the salaries of some other players, that thought process does not always hold true. I look at this as, if the GM knew JT was going to finally come through for them, does he sign these other players? Sometimes talent wins out over the monetary expense of other players. Wilson over Flynn last year is a good example of that. Thomas is showing that he has talent. IMO, thomas will get 15-20 receptions that could very well come at the expense of players like decker and welker. Peyton is so good at seeing the mismatch before the ball is snapped, with all the attention on DT and welker, JT will create a lot of 1 on 1 mismatches. In the end you may be correct, however JT is putting up solid preseason #"S right now, and thats with DT, decker and welker all on the field.
cstu
Footballguy
Last year Tamme and Dressen caught 93 passes, now with Thomas in the mix you only expect 69 passes to TE's? I expect DT to get his but something has to give between Decker/Welker's numbers and the TE's.
ZWK
Footballguy
I've been wondering about how to take the possibility of injuries into account when projecting Denver's receiving numbers. The standard thing to do is to ignore the possibility of injuries and just project everyone for 16 games, which is reasonable enough given that the majority of players don't miss a game.
With 6 different guys in the mix, though, the odds are that someone will miss some time. Which means that the too-many-mouths-to-feed problem probably won't be quite as severe as it looks.
One way to try to account for these injuries is to go down the line and ask, for each of the WR/TEs - if he is out for a game, who benefits the most?
If Julius Thomas emerges as their top receiving tight end, then I think he is one of the top beneficiaries of an injury to any one of the other 5. If it's a TE, then there will be less of a committee rotation and more snaps for him. If it's a WR, then they'll run more 2 TE sets so more snaps for him, in addition to the shared benefit of having that WR's targets distributed (in part) to the guys who remain (with only some of the production going to the other WR who comes in for 3 WR sets).
Another approach, if you're doing numerical projections, is to project everyone for 15 games instead of 16. That will probably give you a better picture of each player's per-game numbers, although it will understate a few guys' season totals since the actual missed games will probably come from 1-2 players rather than evenly from all 6.
With 6 different guys in the mix, though, the odds are that someone will miss some time. Which means that the too-many-mouths-to-feed problem probably won't be quite as severe as it looks.
One way to try to account for these injuries is to go down the line and ask, for each of the WR/TEs - if he is out for a game, who benefits the most?
If Julius Thomas emerges as their top receiving tight end, then I think he is one of the top beneficiaries of an injury to any one of the other 5. If it's a TE, then there will be less of a committee rotation and more snaps for him. If it's a WR, then they'll run more 2 TE sets so more snaps for him, in addition to the shared benefit of having that WR's targets distributed (in part) to the guys who remain (with only some of the production going to the other WR who comes in for 3 WR sets).
Another approach, if you're doing numerical projections, is to project everyone for 15 games instead of 16. That will probably give you a better picture of each player's per-game numbers, although it will understate a few guys' season totals since the actual missed games will probably come from 1-2 players rather than evenly from all 6.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Anarchy99 said:
Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Please place the following events in chronological order:
1) Tamme and Dreessen are signed to contracts paying them $7 million this year.
2) Welker is signed for $6 million this year.
3) Julius Thomas has a break out pre-season that commands a larger role in the offense.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Who?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
It's not like DEN can't change the current situation. Rather than tying up a lot of money between Welker / Tamme / Dreesen, they could trade any of them to pick up help at other weaker positions, add some future draft picks, or otherwise cut someone to just plain save money.
Certainly fantasy "experts" can be wrong just as much as the average bear, but at this point highest any of the 50 fantasy gurus listed at Fantasy Pros has JThomas is 10th this year. No one else has him higher than 17th.
Makes sense considering we aren't sure he is even going to get snaps yet
Roster flexibility is another reason to like this situation in redraft. We likely will have a good idea about what will happen week 1. If its a mess just cut and move on.
pantherclub
Footballguy
I hear what both of you guys are saying and there are certainly people out there that crunch the numbers way more than I do but on the surface from what I have seen in 2 games is that my eyes dont lie. Kid is big and fast and catches the ball. The thing that jumps out is that he is playing with Peyton and Peyton obviously has some level of trust and is working with him in getting Thomas the ball. There is something to be said with that.
I think he is worth a late round flyer maybe even a bit higher if he has another good game. My problem is I am not sure where to target him in a 12 team redraft. Mocks have him all over the board. If he catches another 3 balls for 50ish yards then I think he sneaks into the 10th maybe even 9th round. That seems to be when the hard core TE run starts.
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
Yeah. Forget winning and playing the better players. Let's just base our offense on who makes the most money. Championship!
