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David Yudkin

Anarchy League Thoughts

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Talk about a tough room . . . .I should ban you for that. Of course, I don't remember how to actually do that

:excited::lmao:

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I think this is my 3rd year - and I've always picked near the end of the round. Before I drafted for the first time - 3 years ago- I looked at several past drafts and came up with a rough idea of what players would be available to me at each pick. As an example - using arbitrary numbers - at pick 7.12 I thought I'd be looking at QB20, RB35, WR36 & TE20. I took a 3 year average to come up what I could expect from a player of that level.

Long story short, when I evaluated several different strategies, I found that you could basically ignore the running back position, wait until the mid rounds for TMQB and focus your early rounds on wide recievers and tight ends. I stuck to this strategy and found out that waiting on running backs was actually a bit of a mistake. By the time I got around to filling those spots, I was choosing from left overs. I may have only been looking for 60-80 points from those position, but it was actually harder to predict the guys that would have small roles than it was figuring out who the studs were. By the time the season started, a couple of my picks had been released. I also noticed that there were many quality recievers available when I was picking RBs off the scrap heap.

I think the league has shifted in the last 3 years. I think there are 20+/- tight ends that can score at the same level that the 2007 TE10 produced, thereby reducing their value a bit.

The strategy that I ultimately decided on was to just take the value as I saw it and to:

1. get at least 2 running backs in the first 6 rounds

2. wait on QBs until the second tier

3. Take a 3rd TE as my flex

4. Get 2 kickers before the last couple of rounds (otherwise your guy could get cut)

5. Take my second defense with my last pick

6. Try to take players on teams that had playoff potential.

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This is my 2nd year doing anarchy. Last year I finished 8th in Anarchy League 5, and this year I had two teams, one in AL5 and another in AL3 that I took over after round 2 to replace a missing drafter.

My approach to anarchy leagues is that you have to trust your projections, especially for the first half of the draft. You can't use your intuitions about the relative values of positions because the scoring is so different, and you can't worry about filling out your starting lineup because every player is a starter. Points from your 5th WR are worth just as much as points from your 1st RB, so you just have to take the players who you think will score a lot, using some kind of VBD-like system to compare positions, and trust yourself to fill out your lineup later in the draft.

Like last year, I made projections tailored to this scoring system and made a VBD-style adjustment to put all of the positions on one list. Based on how last season went, I changed my adjustment slightly to increase the value of QBs and (to a lesser extent) RBs relative to WRs & TEs. Then I drafted by that list for the first half of the draft, occasionally using my judgment or drafting for need when players were within a few points of each other. In the second half of the draft I strayed further from the list, paying more attention to what positions I needed and when we were likely to see a drop in tiers or even the end of decent players at a position.

This format creates a lot of balance between the positions (the top 10 players on my draft board included at least 2 at every offensive position, with 4 RBs), but given how the draft tends to go my picks are usually WR/TE-heavy early on. The first 5 rounds are where I get the major point scorers, mostly at WR & TE and occasionally an undervalued RB or QB who slips. Rounds 6-11 are where value emerges at RB among committee backs, with undervalued players at WR, TE, or QB sprinkled in. From round 12 on any position can have value, since defenses get extra scoring from yards against and the top kickers tend to get more playoff games.

In addition to trying to get players you like, in the late rounds you have to worry about not getting stuck with junk. There are always some decent options at WR until the end, but not necessarily at RB or TE, so it's generally good to get those positions filled before the end. There aren't 32 kickers with a secure starting job, so you shouldn't wait too long on kickers. Everyone is guaranteed two team defenses and QBs, so you can wait on those unless the very worse ones look like disasters. Last year I didn't want to get stuck with the Bills or Browns QB so I reached for mediocre QBs in rounds 9 & 10; this year I was willing to wait on QBs until the end, although I preferred to avoid the non-scrambling rookie Dalton.

I drafted my two teams off the same list this year, but ended up with two teams that look pretty different from each other. My AL3 team went even more WR/TE-heavy than I expected, but my AL5 team turned out to be pretty balanced (except for bad QBs) and probably strongest at RB. In AL5 2 of my first 3 picks were RBs; in AL3 2 of my first 3 picks were TEs and my first 2 RBs came in rounds 6 & 9. One similarity is that I waited on my QBs in both leagues, getting them in rounds 14 & 17 in one league and 10 & 17 in the other. The only players who ended up on both rosters were Davone Bess (in rounds 8 & 9) and Darren Sproles (round 11 in both). Here are the positions I drafted:

rds: 01-02-03-04-05-06-07-08-09-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-17-18AL3: TE-WR-TE-WR-WR-RB-TE-WR-RB-RB-RB-DF-WR-QB-PK-PK-QB-DFAL5: WR-RB-RB-WR-TE-RB-TE-WR-WR-QB-RB-DF-PK-WR-PK-DF-QB-WR
I liked both teams when I drafted them, with my AL5 team projected just slightly ahead of my AL3 team, but losing TE Moeaki for the season on my AL5 team could make it hard for me to contend. I've posted more about the specific teams in the league-specific threads: AL3 and AL5.

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16. Panthers, Carolina CAR TMQB 34.68

17. Douglas, Harry ATL WR 3.00

18. 49ers, San Francisco SFO TMQB 13.36

One week doesn't make a seaswon, but I'm liking this late round production. Newton already posted better than 1/6th of his projected point total for the year.

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Half of the top 10 qbbc are mid to lower tier. Buf car was Balt Az

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You know, during the draft I had 4 international flights that took most of the day, and had 6 trips by vehicle that took 8 hours or more. Yet I finished in the quickest half of all draft times. I really have no symp[athy for those who time out and might get a bad pick - their fault.

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Anarchy 3:

Draft Spot: 15

In 2nd place: 60 points behind with the likes of Goodsen and Ward on the team.

took this trifecta in 3rd/4th/5th:

Graham, Jimmy NOS TE 219.10

Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 183.60

Hernandez, Aaron NEP TE 129.50

Fred Jackson in 7th :wub::moneybag:

Anarchy 4:

Draft Spot: 6

1st place with about a 140 point lead.

3rd/4th rounds:

Graham, Jimmy NOS TE 219.100

Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 183.600

7th: Steve Smith (CAR) :shock:

9th: Willis McGahee

12th: Darren Sproles :wub:

couple thoughts:

TE's will fly off the boards next year with ability to take 3 and 2 PPR

You can compete from any draft spot

Team QB/TE could be a good start to a draft

Those with CAR Team QB in these should obviously be doing really well considering where they were probably drafted

Lot of RB gems to be found mid to late rounds

Lot of season left

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Anarchy 3:

Draft Spot: 15

In 2nd place: 60 points behind with the likes of Goodsen and Ward on the team.

took this trifecta in 3rd/4th/5th:

Graham, Jimmy NOS TE 219.10

Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 183.60

Hernandez, Aaron NEP TE 129.50

Fred Jackson in 7th :wub::moneybag:

Anarchy 4:

Draft Spot: 6

1st place with about a 140 point lead.

3rd/4th rounds:

Graham, Jimmy NOS TE 219.100

Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 183.600

7th: Steve Smith (CAR) :shock:

9th: Willis McGahee

12th: Darren Sproles :wub:

couple thoughts:

TE's will fly off the boards next year with ability to take 3 and 2 PPR

You can compete from any draft spot

Team QB/TE could be a good start to a draft

Those with CAR Team QB in these should obviously be doing really well considering where they were probably drafted

Lot of RB gems to be found mid to late rounds

Lot of season left

went back and read this thread a little.....couple of comments from the Anarchy 3 and Anarchy 4 winner......

1. Much discussion in here about taking TMQB early...I took a TMQB with my first pick in each draft:

Anarchy 3: 15.01 SD then 8.02 CLE

Anarchy 4: 6.01 PHI then 13.06 TEN

2. In 3 of the 5 Anarchy Leagues Gronkowski was on the winning roster....the other 2 had Calvin.

3. there is RB value in mid to late rounds...I didn't take one until the 5th round in either league

Anarchy 3: Lynch 6.02 Fred Jackson 7.15

Anarchy 4: Best 5.06 BJGE 6.11 McGahee 9.06 Sproles 12.11 :whistle:

4. Gronk #4 overall scoring all positions and Graham #6 overall and Hernandez #11 overall...

Anarchy 3: all 3 on my roster by round 5

Anarchy4: Graham and Gronk in rounds 3-4 (missed out on Hernandez)

5. TE will fly off the board next year and not using one as your flex is just crazy, one could argue that a couple may deserve to go before the RB's and or the TMQB's....

6. with the question marks, injuries, RBBC, and overall sucktitude of the RB position heading into next year I would expect TMQB and TE to dominate....not just be a presence, but dominate the anarchy league early rounds next year.....

7. cant wait for the drafts again next year and interested to see more of the statistical nuggets if others (David) takes a look and posts....

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I still think TEs score a little too highly. When they are that much of a focus over other positions, it says as much.

On another note, I love the playoff wrinkle.

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Top scorers this year overall . . .

Stinkin' Ref	                3781.76	    4Stinkin' Ref	                3639.76	    3Blinky the Three Eyed Fish	3468.20	    5bro1ncos	                3458.62	    1adreneline	                3357.40	    5Carlton Gray	                3349.68	    1Afrodisiac	                3330.46	    1Steel Dillo	                3322.32	    5Duckboy	                        3313.12	    2Fiddles	                        3274.82	    1BroadwayG	                3272.18	    3 Just Win Baby	                3262.36	    2firstseason1968	                3259.84	    5No. 16	                        3244.66	    5Dreamers	                3240.76	    3HellToupee	                3233.14	    3bueno	                        3229.68	    1Coodinator	                3200.94	    2

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Top scorers this year overall . . .

Stinkin' Ref	                3781.76	    4Stinkin' Ref	                3639.76	    3Blinky the Three Eyed Fish	3468.20	    5bro1ncos	                3458.62	    1adreneline	                3357.40	    5Carlton Gray	                3349.68	    1Afrodisiac	                3330.46	    1Steel Dillo	                3322.32	    5Duckboy	                        3313.12	    2Fiddles	                        3274.82	    1BroadwayG	                3272.18	    3 Just Win Baby	                3262.36	    2firstseason1968	                3259.84	    5No. 16	                        3244.66	    5Dreamers	                3240.76	    3HellToupee	                3233.14	    3bueno	                        3229.68	    1Coodinator	                3200.94	    2
I debated drafting Winslow or Graham at the 3/4 turn and chose Winslow... had I taken Graham instead, I would have won easily and been third on this list. :wall:

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Anarchy 3:

Draft Spot: 15

In 2nd place: 60 points behind with the likes of Goodsen and Ward on the team.

took this trifecta in 3rd/4th/5th:

Graham, Jimmy NOS TE 219.10

Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 183.60

Hernandez, Aaron NEP TE 129.50

Fred Jackson in 7th :wub::moneybag:

Anarchy 4:

Draft Spot: 6

1st place with about a 140 point lead.

3rd/4th rounds:

Graham, Jimmy NOS TE 219.100

Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 183.600

7th: Steve Smith (CAR) :shock:

9th: Willis McGahee

12th: Darren Sproles :wub:

couple thoughts:

TE's will fly off the boards next year with ability to take 3 and 2 PPR

You can compete from any draft spot

Team QB/TE could be a good start to a draft

Those with CAR Team QB in these should obviously be doing really well considering where they were probably drafted

Lot of RB gems to be found mid to late rounds

Lot of season left

went back and read this thread a little.....couple of comments from the Anarchy 3 and Anarchy 4 winner......

1. Much discussion in here about taking TMQB early...I took a TMQB with my first pick in each draft:

Anarchy 3: 15.01 SD then 8.02 CLE

Anarchy 4: 6.01 PHI then 13.06 TEN

2. In 3 of the 5 Anarchy Leagues Gronkowski was on the winning roster....the other 2 had Calvin.

3. there is RB value in mid to late rounds...I didn't take one until the 5th round in either league

Anarchy 3: Lynch 6.02 Fred Jackson 7.15

Anarchy 4: Best 5.06 BJGE 6.11 McGahee 9.06 Sproles 12.11 :whistle:

4. Gronk #4 overall scoring all positions and Graham #6 overall and Hernandez #11 overall...

Anarchy 3: all 3 on my roster by round 5

Anarchy4: Graham and Gronk in rounds 3-4 (missed out on Hernandez)

5. TE will fly off the board next year and not using one as your flex is just crazy, one could argue that a couple may deserve to go before the RB's and or the TMQB's....

6. with the question marks, injuries, RBBC, and overall sucktitude of the RB position heading into next year I would expect TMQB and TE to dominate....not just be a presence, but dominate the anarchy league early rounds next year.....

7. cant wait for the drafts again next year and interested to see more of the statistical nuggets if others (David) takes a look and posts....

bump for TE discussion going on in some threads this year.....

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This is my first time playing in an anarchy league. I'm in league 5. I definitely recognize the value of TE in this format. Despite this, it took a lot of guts for me to take Aaron Hernandez at 1.14. Still not sure if that was the right decision, but at least this isn't costing me any money. :popcorn:

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I took a quick look today about the end game strategy draft wise. In League 1 last year, in Rounds 13 on there were 44 total RB / WR / TE picks made, with only 8 of them scoring 100 or more points on the season (4 WR, 2 TE, 2 RB).

For those that waited until Round 13 or later for TMQB, there were 8 TMQB taken, which ended the year ranked 32, 20, 25, 6, 28, 16, 22, and 12.

For those that waited until Round 17 or later for a DEF, there were 8 DEF taken, which ranked 28, 29, 15, 11, 7, 30, 16, and 13

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