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Dion Lewis (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter ex-ghost
- Start date
Very surprised. I won't bench him again until he burns me....which could happen any week.
Ditka Butkus
Footballguy
Belichick must love him. He has an incredibly long leash for a guy with two fumbles over two games.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
Well, he's starting for me no matter what with Lacy's injury. Here's to hoping he can keep it going.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
How scared are we of game flow? NE opened up -14 at home vs. JAC this week..jeez.
No. 16
Footballguy
What type of player would you guys be willing to trade D. Lewis for? I think we all know he's potential fools gold with BB, but with his potential I'm afraid of trading him away (current RBs: L. Murray, A. Morris, A.Foster, L. Dunbar, R. Matthews, CJ Spiller - my WRs suck).
I'm thinking I would be comfortable trading him for Melvin Gordon type or maybe Cooks on the WR end.
I'm thinking I would be comfortable trading him for Melvin Gordon type or maybe Cooks on the WR end.
Hoss Style
Footballguy
Yeah, he's worrying me with his fumbles. I'm afraid he might fumble again, it'll be a costly one, and then he's done. He's looked so good though, that I'd really sell him hard for some good value in a trade.
Niles Standish
Footballguy
I think his value is going to drop pretty quickly. Blount wasn't really part of the gameplan this week because Buffalo isn't a team to try the power run against. I'd expect we see Blount get the majority of carries and Lewis the 3rd down role.
shader
Footballguy
At this point, Dion Lewis isn't risky. Why? Because every single RB in the league is risky (except maybe Leveon?). RB's are struggling right now. Any week you can get a 15-60 from a RB.
So is Dion really that risky?
I'm sure there will be a game in the future where out of nowhere Blount will get 25 carries and Lewis will put up a stinker.
But at this point, Dion Lewis looks to be a player that you cannot bench from here on out.
So is Dion really that risky?
I'm sure there will be a game in the future where out of nowhere Blount will get 25 carries and Lewis will put up a stinker.
But at this point, Dion Lewis looks to be a player that you cannot bench from here on out.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
I wonder how much of this was because of the Rex Ryan BS during the week when asked about Lewis he said "I can't even tell you that kid's name" and said "He ain't gonna play" and that he's preparing for Blount. Now maybe Rex was playing mind games with Bill, or maybe Bill just ran with Lewis to dig at Rex. Dunno. As good as Lewis has done, He has laid the ball on the carpet a lot for a Patriot, and Blount is a good back. Fun to watch.
Banger
Footballguy
this is all working accdg to plan...now everyone will expect Lewis...everyone will insert him in their lineups and Blount will get 70 snaps and Lewis will end up with 7. I have to say though he looks terrific, breaking tackles and seems a perfect fit for that offense..offers them good versatility and still runs hard.
RealReactions
Footballguy
Yea I'm riding lewis now until i get burned which could be the first quarter but thats 2 weeks now his points where on my bench.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Perspective needs to be applied here...
1) During the entire off-season/pre-season, we waited to see who in the Pats backfield would emerge as the Vereen/Woodhead/Faulk player. After 2 games, at worst, Lewis is this. If you have Lewis on your roster, chances are, he didn't cost much.
2) If you've watched him play and I've seen a decent amount of the 2 games the Pats played, you'd have to agree that he's a fairly dynamic talent who despite a small stature, runs pretty tough.
3) Despite the fact that Tom Brady has gone off in the first 2 games of the season, the #2/#3 WR's for the Pats (Dobson/Amendola) have combined for 11/149/0. To me, it's not the names on the back of the jersey that matter so much as the role the individual player plays in the grand scheme. Dobson = LaFell. Point being is that in a prolific passing offense, Lewis seems to be option #3.
4) Blount simply isn't that much of a talent. He found back-up roles during the 2014 off-season when he was a FA coming off a solid stretch of performance and then last November, was lucky the Patriots had a need. But it was fairly unimpressive money. The narrative coming into 2015 was who else do the Patriots have to run the ball? Well, now we know
Ultimately, I think Lewis' floor has been established as a rung above what Vereen attained at his peak which is RB2/Flex appeal. However, 2015's Justin Forsett is not all that outlandish at this stage of the game. To me though, if you have faith in Lewis, then why not deal off the top of the deck? If you don't own Lewis, you likely haven't dug into his performance. You think he's a fluke. So, take the risk which I think at this point is very reasonable and insert him into your RB rotation while trading and RB2 & WR2 for RB1 or WR1
1) During the entire off-season/pre-season, we waited to see who in the Pats backfield would emerge as the Vereen/Woodhead/Faulk player. After 2 games, at worst, Lewis is this. If you have Lewis on your roster, chances are, he didn't cost much.
2) If you've watched him play and I've seen a decent amount of the 2 games the Pats played, you'd have to agree that he's a fairly dynamic talent who despite a small stature, runs pretty tough.
3) Despite the fact that Tom Brady has gone off in the first 2 games of the season, the #2/#3 WR's for the Pats (Dobson/Amendola) have combined for 11/149/0. To me, it's not the names on the back of the jersey that matter so much as the role the individual player plays in the grand scheme. Dobson = LaFell. Point being is that in a prolific passing offense, Lewis seems to be option #3.
4) Blount simply isn't that much of a talent. He found back-up roles during the 2014 off-season when he was a FA coming off a solid stretch of performance and then last November, was lucky the Patriots had a need. But it was fairly unimpressive money. The narrative coming into 2015 was who else do the Patriots have to run the ball? Well, now we know
Ultimately, I think Lewis' floor has been established as a rung above what Vereen attained at his peak which is RB2/Flex appeal. However, 2015's Justin Forsett is not all that outlandish at this stage of the game. To me though, if you have faith in Lewis, then why not deal off the top of the deck? If you don't own Lewis, you likely haven't dug into his performance. You think he's a fluke. So, take the risk which I think at this point is very reasonable and insert him into your RB rotation while trading and RB2 & WR2 for RB1 or WR1
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I'm just scared he will be nearing Ridley territory with another fumble. I'm starting him next week over Crowell, but if he coughs the ball once more, he lands in a place that people don't usually get out of, BB's doghouse.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
BB doesn't strike me as reasonable or forgiving. So regardless, his next fumble will cost him playing time.
He does look awesome though, clearly their best RB.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
This is a pretty damn good post and runs pretty well alongside my read of the situation.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Part of the issue with trying to figure out what's what in NE right now is that some of the numbers so far have been pretty skewed so far.
Brady is on pace for 725 attempts. Edelman is projected out to 170 catches on 250 targets. Gronk would score 32 TDs if he kept it up. Lewis is going at an 800 / 1200 pace. The RBs have only 30 carries in two games and Brady as as many carries as anyone else on the roster besides Lewis.
It is highly unlikely that those numbers play out that way across the entire season. At some point Blount will get more than 2 carries. LaFell will come back eventually.
Certainly Lewis has done well so far. We will have to see how opponents adjust to what NE has been doing so far.
Brady is on pace for 725 attempts. Edelman is projected out to 170 catches on 250 targets. Gronk would score 32 TDs if he kept it up. Lewis is going at an 800 / 1200 pace. The RBs have only 30 carries in two games and Brady as as many carries as anyone else on the roster besides Lewis.
It is highly unlikely that those numbers play out that way across the entire season. At some point Blount will get more than 2 carries. LaFell will come back eventually.
Certainly Lewis has done well so far. We will have to see how opponents adjust to what NE has been doing so far.
Road Warriors
Footballguy
Agree with all this, but it does seem that barring a fumbling barrage or injury, his floor will be FLEX worthy (PPR) as the Pats receiving back. Faulk was worth a spot start / bye week filler, Woodhead was a regular flex option and Vereen ( when healthy ) was also a flex option.
addicted2ff
Footballguy
Did You Know?
According to Pro Football Focus, Lewis has 16 forced missed tackles on 32 touches. After these first 2 games, for running backs that are in the top 50% of the league for rushing attempts, Lewis has the best forced missed tackle rate(forced missed tackles divided by touches) out of anyone in the league. In fact, dating back to 2007(when PFF started grading players), after the first 2 games for top 50% of league rushing attempts, Lewis has the best forced missed tackle rate out of anyone period.
There's a very good chance this guy is the real deal and not just a random pass catcher in a Belichick offense.
According to Pro Football Focus, Lewis has 16 forced missed tackles on 32 touches. After these first 2 games, for running backs that are in the top 50% of the league for rushing attempts, Lewis has the best forced missed tackle rate(forced missed tackles divided by touches) out of anyone in the league. In fact, dating back to 2007(when PFF started grading players), after the first 2 games for top 50% of league rushing attempts, Lewis has the best forced missed tackle rate out of anyone period.
There's a very good chance this guy is the real deal and not just a random pass catcher in a Belichick offense.
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EthnicFury
Footballguy
Yep. The missed tackles combined with the atypical handling of the fumbles tells me there's a significant chance he's the goods and they're well aware of it.
Blount, for all his size, is actually not that effective in short yardage either IIRC (likely due to his height).
Could he get benched if he keeps fumbling? Sure, but there's a good chance that's already baked into his price at a higher probability than I believe is accurate. I'd be buying if the owner is scared of belichick and looking to cash out (except I already own him in all my leagues).
Maybe I'm biased because I loved him coming out but he looks the part to me.
Blount, for all his size, is actually not that effective in short yardage either IIRC (likely due to his height).
Could he get benched if he keeps fumbling? Sure, but there's a good chance that's already baked into his price at a higher probability than I believe is accurate. I'd be buying if the owner is scared of belichick and looking to cash out (except I already own him in all my leagues).
Maybe I'm biased because I loved him coming out but he looks the part to me.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Disclaimer: I've got Dion in multiple leagues.
I'm ecstatic to have him and I'm not trying to trade him anywhere. He will surely have a some down games this year (like everyone else), but a few things have become clear to me:
I'm ecstatic to have him and I'm not trying to trade him anywhere. He will surely have a some down games this year (like everyone else), but a few things have become clear to me:
- Lewis is not just a 3rd down back. He's capable of filling more than the "Vereen Role"
- He's got feature back talent. I'm not saying he'd hold up all season under a full role, but he's got the talent to be a legit starting RB. As opposed to Joseph Randle who looks like a decent backup.
- Last and MOST important, it's obvious that Belichick has plans for him. There is no one else on the team that can steal his job. The Pats want to throw a ton and Lewis fits in perfectly. Belichick isn't going to bench him because of a fumble.
Insein
Footballguy
Kept him in 1. Dropped him before week 1 in another. Sometimes I wish I didn't have a phone that can allow me to over think things.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I would have been insulted if you offered me a WR from a team that hasn't had a WR TD in years for Lewis.
Frenchy Fuqua
Footballguy
Lewis is a dynamic player, Blount is not. That is why Belichick has stuck with him.
The Claymaker
Footballguy
I do the same thing, over think things I mean. I usually do it with my lineup though, like pulling Smif for Roddy White, yes I am embarrassed to say that. But glad I didn't drop Lewis.
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Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
Only play PPR that's a fair offer.
I wouldn't give Dion for Maclin. But I usually fill my RB2 position by committee (and Dion heads it currently) and WRs with little upside like Maclin aren't real desirable to me.
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rocketsauce
Footballguy
Frankly, I'm tired of wasting my RB2 spot on the likes of Doug Martin or Lamar Miller. I'm starting Lewis till he burns me, gamescript or not.
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mnmplayer
Footballguy
Wonder what forced miss tackle rate percent Barry had. This is shaping up as the fa pickup of the year. I do think the claims that dion 9s the closest thing to Barray this league has seen since Barry. Of course Barry could not have made that nice grab down the sideline like dion. Dion also forces a nice pi call later in the game. Just hope he can stay healthy.
mnmplayer
Footballguy
Just watched the game. All the other players on the field looks like there in slow motion compared to this guy. If you haven't got a chance to see hiM in action do yourself a favor and watch this game as this displays all his skills inside running to catching long passes to picking up blitzes.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
After two good games, you're comparing this journeyman to Barry Sanders? You understand how completely ridiculous you sound, yes? I own this guy and expect good things, but he isn't Barry Sanders - Even if he leads the NFL in all rushing statistics for the entire season, he still won't be Barry Sanders.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Yeah the top 10 right now in my PPR
1. Deangelo
2. Carlos
3. Forte
4. Jamaal
5. Dion
6. Woodhead
7. Ingram
8. Lataivus
9. Gio
10. Matt Jones
I'd say stud running back theory is dead. In fact I'm looking to move Demarco and Marshawn right now and load up at wideout.
1. Deangelo
2. Carlos
3. Forte
4. Jamaal
5. Dion
6. Woodhead
7. Ingram
8. Lataivus
9. Gio
10. Matt Jones
I'd say stud running back theory is dead. In fact I'm looking to move Demarco and Marshawn right now and load up at wideout.
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Banger
Footballguy
things will even up over the coming weeks but wr's are more reliable overall than rb's and it's how I've tried to build my core for the last few years.
mnmplayer
Footballguy
People have been comparing him to Barry since at least 2009 when he was at Pitt. I can't take credit for the comparison to Barry (search earlier in this thread if you wish to see my comments on that and some nice pre-season vids indicating Dion would take the Vereen role to the next level.), just thought it would be interesting to see the missed tackle rate for Barry and be able to compare it to Dion so we would have a metric of comparison, but I couldn't find anything. It's not a perfect stat much like YPC, but it could give an indication of his talent level for making people miss.
Agreed that leading the league in rushing has nothing to do with the comparison, many elite RBs had more total yards than Barry but still lacked the elite "make you miss" talent level that Barry is on all by himself.
Shutout
Footballguy
Everyone thought Blount would be the guy in large part because we assumed they had nothing else. Now we know better.
If you're watching the games, you know he is the best they have and you know he's every bit as impressive as a lot of guys we value highly.
The fumble thing is overblown/over thought because he's not costing them games and, in the past when Patriots RBs DID ride the bench after fumbling, it was largely to do in part because there were 2 other guys on the sidelines that could do EXACTLY what the fumbling guy was doing. That's not the case anymore. They don't have a guy that can do what Lewis is doing and they know it. It's why Brady doesn't get the bench when he tosses an INT (or why it's like that on any team).
The bottom line is this Patriots team HAS NOT been this productive and dangerous since they had Hernandez and Vareen and Welker, etc. The coaches know what they got and they are going to use him.
If you're watching the games, you know he is the best they have and you know he's every bit as impressive as a lot of guys we value highly.
The fumble thing is overblown/over thought because he's not costing them games and, in the past when Patriots RBs DID ride the bench after fumbling, it was largely to do in part because there were 2 other guys on the sidelines that could do EXACTLY what the fumbling guy was doing. That's not the case anymore. They don't have a guy that can do what Lewis is doing and they know it. It's why Brady doesn't get the bench when he tosses an INT (or why it's like that on any team).
The bottom line is this Patriots team HAS NOT been this productive and dangerous since they had Hernandez and Vareen and Welker, etc. The coaches know what they got and they are going to use him.
