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mcintyre1

2012 Prospect Rex Burkhead RB

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In the two leagues I'm in where we use BB, he went for 25% and 12% (me) repsectively. I'm not gonna start him this week, but it sounds like he's gonna take over from Gio 1:1. Remains to be seen whether he is capable of that...

 

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Hoping this is a late season gem. Although replacing Gio's stats isn't incredibly exciting. Hoping with Green out he gets some extra slot work too.

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Patriots signed RB Rex Burkhead

It's a surprising signing in that Burkhead seems a redundant talent to James White and Dion Lewis, but advanced metrics love the former Bengal, and suggest he's an underrated runner. Burkhead is a mismatch as a pass catcher, and aggressive and elusive as a runner. He's also a special teams standout. It's possible the Pats give Burkhead an opportunity on early downs. He rushed 27 times for 119 yards in a Week 17 spot start for Cincinnati. He's a fascinating fantasy case for 2017.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2696707-rex-burkhead-patriots-agree-to-contract-after-3-years-with-bengals

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"fascinating fantasy case" - OK

Here is the typical Patriots RB weekly stat line for fantasy points - 2, 17, 4, 20, 0, 5, 3, 37. Good luck discerning when he might play with Belichick.

Edited by buck naked
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Just now, buck naked said:

"fascinating fantasy case" - OK

Here is the typical Patriots RB stat line for fantasy points - 2, 17, 4, 20, 0, 5, 3, 37. Good luck discerning when he might play with Belichick.

I believe he will be a better NFL RB in the Patriots system than a fantasy asset.

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He is sneaky good. Being a Bengal fan I'm going to miss him. Stupid for the Bengals to let him walk. I can see Rex being really good in New England's offense. 

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Just now, Casting Couch said:

I believe he will be a better NFL RB in the Patriots system than a fantasy asset.

Agreed. Patriots do that often.

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Great signing for the Patriots, who continue to win the off season, as for fantasy this is a meh, unless you play in a lot of best ball leagues. Could be very underrated in best ball for late round pick.

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2 hours ago, nightmare said:

 Burkhead is the upgrade to Bolden-who is a free agent..

Bingo. Burkhead, like Bolden, is also a good special teams player. (Injuries and further moves permitting) He'll most likely spend most of this season playing ST, since he is rather similar to White/Lewis. 

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5 minutes ago, RenegadeRoy said:

Bingo. Burkhead, like Bolden, is also a good special teams player. (Injuries and further moves permitting) He'll most likely spend most of this season playing ST, since he is rather similar to White/Lewis. 

I saw limited footage of Rex Burkhead last year but I recall him being a pretty solid downhill runner who plays bigger than his size, particularly b/w the tackles.

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19 minutes ago, osubuckeyeman said:

https://www.fantasypros.com/2016/05/deep-fantasy-football-sleepers-rex-burkhead-bengals/

Talk about hitting the nail on the head. I don't know if I buy into it, but this guy laid a plan for the Patriots getting Burkhead in the future than wrote a whole article on it.

I'm sure he is smiling a bit today. 

 

 

Wow...hopefully he's at the local bar bragging about this because he was dead-on...

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16 minutes ago, osubuckeyeman said:

https://www.fantasypros.com/2016/05/deep-fantasy-football-sleepers-rex-burkhead-bengals/

Talk about hitting the nail on the head. I don't know if I buy into it, but this guy laid a plan for the Patriots getting Burkhead in the future than wrote a whole article on it.

I'm sure he is smiling a bit today. 

 

 

On one hand he did nail it and I don't mind giving credit where credit is due but on the other hand he comped a white RB to Woodhead and Welker and than placed him in NE. This is not a new thing.

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Coming back to this guy after so many years, I have to say that I think people might be underrating what his role could be on this Patriots team, especially if they don't re-sign Blount. For all of the hype Burkhead now gets for his receiving abilities, as a long-time fan/watcher, he's always been best as an inside runner with great vision and burst up the inside of the line. If this backfield remains largely the same going in to the season (White, Lewis, Burkhead), I don't see how Burkhead doesn't fill the Blount role when they need to punch it in. I'm not saying he'll get 18 rushing TDs, but I think he's more important than "an upgrade to Bolden".

Edited by mcintyre1
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One of the Husker football fan sites has a regular podcast with Adam Carriker (former Huskers and Redskins DE), and he interviewed Rex about his signing with New England. Fairly typical stuff and nothing super insightful, but posting in case anyone wants to listen.

Relevant questions:

Quote

AC: What will your role be with the Patriots? Have you discussed that much yet?

RB: Yeah, um they said nothing's really given to ya -- it's all earned, so it's whatever. If that's a first, second or third down back, you have to earn that, so whatever that role may be. You know, it's kind of for me to prove what I can do and whatever they see in me that's what my role's gonna be, so it's going in there, working my tail off, do what I can and ultimately it will come down to where they see me fitting.

AC: Now will you be playing special teams as well, 'cuz I saw where you have 27 tackles on special teams and you -- you don't play defense! That's a LOT of tackles so is that something that will be on the docket as well?

RB: Oh, I'm sure yeah! That's something they've been known for. They have one of the best special teams units in the league, and you know, they use their starters and any guys that are available on special teams so I've really grown to like doing that side of the game and if that's what they want me to do, then I'm going to do it.

 

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Rex Burkhead's one-year, $3.15 million deal makes him the highest-paid Patriots running back since Fred Taylor in 2010.

The Patriots haven't paid a running back $2-plus million in over a half-decade. Some Patriots fans apparently assumed Burkhead would be a special teams-only replacement for Brandon Bolden. According to ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss, Burkhead is "viewed as a key cog, both offensively and on special teams" by the Patriots, while the Providence Journal's Mark Daniels believes Burkhead "is coming to the Patriots with a chance to be their starting running back."
 
 
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5 hours ago, need2know said:

Rich get richer.  Very underrated player 

:goodposting:

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http://www.fantasyfootballmetrics.com/members/2017/03/15/dynasty-fantasy-commentary-on-rex-burkhead-to-the-patriots/

 

He wrote a follow-up article today with 3 possible situations. Like I said yesterday. I will miss him in the Black and Orange.

 

Another mistake by the Bengals. Mike Brown bungled it up again. I can only assume the Bengals are planning on signing Perriman and drafting another running back in the draft. I'm hoping for a back in first 3 rounds.

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On 3/15/2017 at 9:11 PM, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Yeah, maybe and maybe not. Brandon Bolden was also making around $3m/yr and he never sniffed the backfield except for emergencies. I do think Burkhead will be in the backfield a LOT more than Bolden. That said, it's a long way until September.

I think it is a near mortal lock NE drafts a RB. They have three guys whose deals expire next year. BB will go into the season with a rookie locked up for 4 years. It's been his MO with RBs since Dillon. 

I'm excited as a Pats fan for Burkhead, just having trouble seeing him blowing up in 2017 for FF purposes. I'd be way more interested in him in dynasty if he was on a three-year contract and he was guaranteed the Lewis/White role in 2018.

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On Tuesday, March 14, 2017 at 6:45 PM, Cowboysfan8 said:

I was hoping he'd land in Dallas 

Why?

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The x-factor right now is who the fourth back is (White and Lewis are the other two)...is it Blount, a higher draft pick, a lower draft pick or a veteran free agent...they also still have Foster who they kept all last year but he seems more in the White/Lewis mold and I have zero clue how they feel about him (although both Lewis and White are in the last year of their deals)...right now Burkhead would be the de-facto power back which would really help his value but that could obviously change...I do think he will have a solid role this year but until we see who the other back is it is difficult to get a handle on a projected value...

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On 3/14/2017 at 6:45 PM, Cowboysfan8 said:

I was hoping he'd land in Dallas 

same here for the Steelers

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2 hours ago, Boston said:

The x-factor right now is who the fourth back is (White and Lewis are the other two)...is it Blount, a higher draft pick, a lower draft pick or a veteran free agent...they also still have Foster who they kept all last year but he seems more in the White/Lewis mold and I have zero clue how they feel about him (although both Lewis and White are in the last year of their deals)...right now Burkhead would be the de-facto power back which would really help his value but that could obviously change...I do think he will have a solid role this year but until we see who the other back is it is difficult to get a handle on a projected value...

I would put it at 10% chance that Burkhead assumes the Blount running down role and ends up with the most carries. I actually think there is a greater likelihood that the RB corp is:

  • Blount
  • Rookie Blount Heir (e.g. Conner)
  • White
  • Burkhead

With Lewis a surprise cut. I also don't think we can sleep on White making a leap in touches next year after that SB performance.

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6 hours ago, tombonneau said:

Yeah, maybe and maybe not. Brandon Bolden was also making around $3m/yr and he never sniffed the backfield except for emergencies. I do think Burkhead will be in the backfield a LOT more than Bolden. That said, it's a long way until September.

I think it is a near mortal lock NE drafts a RB. They have three guys whose deals expire next year. BB will go into the season with a rookie locked up for 4 years. It's been his MO with RBs since Dillon. 

I'm excited as a Pats fan for Burkhead, just having trouble seeing him blowing up in 2017 for FF purposes. I'd be way more interested in him in dynasty if he was on a three-year contract and he was guaranteed the Lewis/White role in 2018.

Pretty minor quibble, but just wanted to point out that Bolden was signed in 2015 to a 2 year, ~$2.2 million deal ($1.1 million salary in 2015, $1 million 2016, with some small bonuses). I agree that NE is likely to draft a RB (I'm guessing late, based purely on their track record) and there's a long way to go before the season in which a lot could change, but I do feel it is a mistake to believe that the Patriots valued Burkhead and Bolden similarly.

Edited by mcintyre1
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4 minutes ago, massraider said:

Dion Lewis, we hardly knew ye.....:(

I couldn’t disagree with you more. Lewis is a dominant player in the Patriots system when healthy. Just look at his 3td, 188 total yard performance vs the Texans in this years playoffs...Assuming health he will have a major role with the Patriots this coming season.

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Just now, Saboo said:

I couldn’t disagree with you more. Lewis is a dominant player in the Patriots system when healthy. Just look at his 3td, 188 total yard performance vs the Texans in this years playoffs...Assuming health he will have a major role with the Patriots this coming season.

James White has also had dominant games in this system.  As has a bunch of other RBs we have forgotten about.  

I'm not sure I am saying what you are disagreeing with.  I am having a hard time finding a back that demands touches in this system, and I have a hard time finding one I consistently am going to start.  

I think if the Pats give Lewis 15 touches a game, he's a RB1.  Unfortunately, I don't think that's their plan.  
 

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43 minutes ago, tombonneau said:

I would put it at 10% chance that Burkhead assumes the Blount running down role and ends up with the most carries. I actually think there is a greater likelihood that the RB corp is:

  • Blount
  • Rookie Blount Heir (e.g. Conner)
  • White
  • Burkhead

With Lewis a surprise cut. I also don't think we can sleep on White making a leap in touches next year after that SB performance.

Agree and disagree...I do see a bigger RB (be it Blount or someone else) eventually being added and taking those carries...my point is as of right now it would probably go to Burkhead...where I disagree is Burkhead being a fourth option...if he was going to be that I don't think they would have given him that much money...Lewis is interesting...I think a lot depends on whether he gets back that "giddy-up" he had prior to the injury...he was not the same player last year...as for White I have grown to like him and has carved out a real nice niche in the passing game but I don't think running the ball is a real strength of his...he has only had 9-22-39 carries in his three years there...

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57 minutes ago, Boston said:

Agree and disagree...I do see a bigger RB (be it Blount or someone else) eventually being added and taking those carries...my point is as of right now it would probably go to Burkhead...where I disagree is Burkhead being a fourth option...if he was going to be that I don't think they would have given him that much money...Lewis is interesting...I think a lot depends on whether he gets back that "giddy-up" he had prior to the injury...he was not the same player last year...as for White I have grown to like him and has carved out a real nice niche in the passing game but I don't think running the ball is a real strength of his...he has only had 9-22-39 carries in his three years there...

Sorry I didn't mean the order of my bullets to indicate a depth chart. I would expect in that above scenario Blount to be what he is, a rookie to potentially start stealing those touches while sometimes being game day inactive, and White/Burkhead to basically be what White/Lewis have been.

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32 minutes ago, Boston said:

So either a 5'10", 210 lb white RB can be a primary RB, or he can't be. This article makes it sound like Burkhead can be, but some in the McCaffrey thread says that can't happen. :pokey:

Im so confused! 

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17 minutes ago, jabarony said:

Well that was fairly pointless.  No offense, Boston, as I appreciate almost all news in this slow time.

Agreed...it was a pre-season puff piece but news is news...

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10 minutes ago, buck naked said:

So either a 5'10", 210 lb white RB can be a primary RB, or he can't be. This article makes it sound like Burkhead can be, but some in the McCaffrey thread says that can't happen. :pokey:

Im so confused! 

I haven't really waded in to any of the McCaffrey stuff, but it seems we're doing some rounding here to make the comparison. If we go by combine weights, Burkhead was 12 lbs heavier than McCaffrey (214lbs vs 202lbs).

Regardless, from the limited time I've spent watching McCaffrey, I'd say the bigger difference is in their running styles. McCaffrey is significantly faster in a straight line, and has slightly better lateral agility (though it does seems like McCaffrey has to gear down more than he should to make cuts), but Burkhead is significantly stronger and shows much better power as a runner. This is borne out in their combine results as well, with McCaffrey excelling in the 40 (4.49 vs 4.73) and 3-cone (6.57 vs 6.85) and Burkhead excelling in the general strength and burst muscle power drills like bench press (21 BP reps vs 10 BP reps), vertical jump (39.5" vs 37.5") and long jump (125" vs 121"). 

I think McCaffrey is by far the better prospect on paper and will assuredly be drafted as such, but I do think McCaffrey needs a better O-line situation to see success as a runner. If you give him a good hole, he can be a monster, but he doesn't have the functional strength to fight through tackles nearly as well as Burkhead. 

Just my :2cents:

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Just picked this guy up in RFA in one of my dynasty leagues.  Kind of excited to see what he can do in the Pat scheme.  He's much sturdier than Lewis and appears more slippery than White.

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It's so confusing that he's competing with a guy named "White" for carries.

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Much more confusing than usual how they are going to use all these guys this year.  Gillislee more of a Blount role.  White is a one-trick pony receiving.  But Lewis and Burkhead are both kind of in betweeners.  I guess the question is who is going to get the receptions in that offense this year.

Interesting to note that only Gillislee and White are signed beyond this year.  People took note on how much Gillislee and Burkhead were signed for, but it kind of slipped under the radar with White's extension that he actually has the biggest contract of any of them.

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There was a blurb over the weekend where Mike Reiss mentioned Lewis being a kick returner and only playing 15-20 snaps per game to try to keep him healthier and fresher over the course of the season. 

Reiss also said at OTA's Lewis had more explosion than last year and he and Gillislee were much faster hitting the whole than the rest of the backs. 

Edited by Anarchy99

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6 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

There was a blurb over the weekend where Mike Reiss mentioned Lewis being a kick returner and only playing 15-20 snaps per game to try to keep him healthier and fresher over the course of the season. 

Reiss also said at OTA's Lewis had more explosion than last year and he and Gillislee were much faster hitting the whole than the rest of the backs. 

I am torn on Lewis because he was clearly playing at well under 100% last year and a lot of times these guys two years removed from a major injury can be a great buy in dynasty.  We've seen it before with guys like Welker who are still a step slow the year following their injury and people kind of forget how good they were before, which leaves a pretty nice buy window.

On the flip side both Lewis and White went into this offseason with basically the same cheap 1 year remaining on their contract and the Pats ended up paying White a pretty hefty extension (3yrs $12m) while doing nothing with Lewis.  That seems to signal that they're much more committed to White long-term. 

Even if they just want to see what Lewis' health looks like this year I'm not sure there is much room to re-sign him to a veteran contract if he looks good with Gillislee and White already signed under fairly hefty deals.  If Lewis or Burkhead play well this year and are starting down $4m+ per year or more next year, would the Pats really give it to them with Gillislee/White already on the books for decent amounts?

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