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Garrett

Big Ten Basketball 2018/2019 - Return to Power

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Will be a good game tonight, but if Michigan let's IU get open threes it will not be that close. IU is deadly from 3-point land.

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You can come up with fantastic metrics and still have a crappy rating system, which is exactly what he has done. Kind of like only to use results from the NFL combines to rank talent. It gives you interesting insight into some things, but it is not always the best ranking of talent.

And yes, Michigan is easily a top 20 team.

Edited by jon_mx

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You can come up with fantastic metrics and still have a crappy rating system, which is exactly what he has done. Kind of like only to use results from the NFL combines to rank talent. It gives you interesting insight into some things, but it is not always the best ranking of talent.

:lmao: You obviously don't understand kenpom.

He's very respected in college basketball circles and darn good when it comes to the NCAA tourney. Most college basketball websites and rankings websites consider his rankings on par with RPI and Sagarin rankings :shrug:

Ratings Explanation

The first thing you should know about this system is that it is designed to be purely predictive. If you’re looking for a system that rates teams on how “good” their season has been, you’ve come to the wrong place.

The purpose of this system is to show how strong a team would be if it played tonight, independent of injuries or emotional factors. Since nobody can see every team play all (or even most) of their games, this system is designed to give you a snapshot of a team’s current level of play.

I would describe the philosophy of the system as this: it looks at who a team has beaten and how they have beaten them. Same thing on the losses, also. Yes, it values a 20 point win more than a 5 point win. It likes a team that loses a lot of close games against strong opposition more than one that wins a lot of close games against weak opposition.

The core of the system is the pythagorean calculation for expected winning percentage. In previous experiments, I found the best exponent for college basketball was between 8 and 9. But for whatever reason, when using adjusted efficiencies, the best exponent is between 11 and 12, probably because previous experiments only included conference games. I am using 11.5 as the exponent.

How did I determine the best exponent? I applied the log5 formula to every game last season and found the exponent with the best fit for expected winning percentages. (A problem here is that I applied the final ratings retroactively to the last season’s results, so it’s a little high for predictive purposes. This will be revisited eventually.) You can get an idea of the chance one team beats another by applying the log5 formula to the two teams’ pythagorean rating. There is a home court advantage consideration, also. More on that, later.

The inputs into the pythagorean equation are the team’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies. Any time you see something “adjusted” on this site, it refers to how a team would perform against average competition at a neutral site. For instance, a team’s offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) is adjusted for the strength of the opposing defenses played. I compute an adjusted offensive efficiency for each game by multiplying the team’s raw offensive efficiency by the national average efficiency and dividing by the opponent’s adjusted defensive efficiency. The adjusted game efficiencies are then averaged (with more weighting to recent games) to produce the final adjusted offensive efficiency.

While the pythagorean winning percentage is calibrated to the likelihood of winning, the efficiencies are based purely on scoring per possession with no consideration of winning or losing. This allows us to get both a chance of winning and a predicted final score with the system, and makes the system much more predictive than if we ignored scoring margin. It also has the advantage of giving a rating in offensive and defensive terms, and an SOS in those terms, as well. Want to know which team has faced the toughest defenses? Well, with my system you can.

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All I know is Kenpom's ranking right now suck. He must have some kind of bad basis left over from last year, because he is grossly over-ranking Wisconsin and grossly under-ranking Michigan. Perhaps later in the season he rankings will make a lot more sense, but as of now it sucks.

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All I know is Kenpom's ranking right now suck. He must have some kind of bad basis left over from last year, because he is grossly over-ranking Wisconsin and grossly under-ranking Michigan. Perhaps later in the season he rankings will make a lot more sense, but as of now it sucks.

Says Michigan fan...:lmao:

you're still not getting it....oh well..moving on....:yawn:

Edited by BroncoFreak_2K3

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All I know is Kenpom's ranking right now suck. He must have some kind of bad basis left over from last year, because he is grossly over-ranking Wisconsin and grossly under-ranking Michigan. Perhaps later in the season he rankings will make a lot more sense, but as of now it sucks.

Says Michigan fan...:lmao:
Says a fan who watches the games. I realize they are not as good as MSU, OSU, or IU. Michigan is on par with Wisconsin and will finish with a very similar record. Unlike you, I was not shocked at all that MSU went into Wisconsin and beat them on their own floor. MSU is a better team.

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All I know is Kenpom's ranking right now suck. He must have some kind of bad basis left over from last year, because he is grossly over-ranking Wisconsin and grossly under-ranking Michigan. Perhaps later in the season he rankings will make a lot more sense, but as of now it sucks.

Says Michigan fan...:lmao:
Says a fan who watches the games. I realize they are not as good as MSU, OSU, or IU. Michigan is on par with Wisconsin and will finish with a very similar record. Unlike you, I was not shocked at all that MSU went into Wisconsin and beat them on their own floor. MSU is a better team.
hehehe OK Nostradamus....

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All I know is Kenpom's ranking right now suck. He must have some kind of bad basis left over from last year, because he is grossly over-ranking Wisconsin and grossly under-ranking Michigan. Perhaps later in the season he rankings will make a lot more sense, but as of now it sucks.

Says Michigan fan...:lmao:
Says a fan who watches the games. I realize they are not as good as MSU, OSU, or IU. Michigan is on par with Wisconsin and will finish with a very similar record. Unlike you, I was not shocked at all that MSU went into Wisconsin and beat them on their own floor. MSU is a better team.
I agree that Wisconsin currently being #2 overall in the kenpom rankings is revealing some flaws in the whole equation/system. That is just wrong. Kentucky would beat Wisconsin by 28 points. Edited by Garrett

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Looking at Michigan's results, I'm not really impressed. They beat Memphis and UCLA in Maui, both big names but neither is having a very good season. Other than that, their best win is Minnesota at home.

I haven't seen them play so maybe the eye test says otherwise, but it's not a mystery why a computer would have them at 46.

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I agree that Wisconsin currently being #2 overall in the kenpom rankings is revealing some flaws in the whole equation/system. That is just wrong. Kentucky would beat Wisconsin by 28 points.

The flaw seems to be in terms of margin of victory vs. bad teams.Wisconsin pounded bad teams because they can get open looks all day. They only have one guy (Jordan Taylor) who can create shots against Big Ten defenses.

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Looking at Michigan's results, I'm not really impressed. They beat Memphis and UCLA in Maui, both big names but neither is having a very good season. Other than that, their best win is Minnesota at home.I haven't seen them play so maybe the eye test says otherwise, but it's not a mystery why a computer would have them at 46.

They looked shell shocked early at Assembly Hall...

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Indiana is the best 3-pointing shooting team I have ever seen. They are just ridiculous from beyond the arc. Then with Zeller in the middle really makes them tough.

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Michigan has no answer for Watford. He just drew his first triple team of the season and casually kicked it out to the wide open three!

:thumbup:

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Looking at Michigan's results, I'm not really impressed. They beat Memphis and UCLA in Maui, both big names but neither is having a very good season. Other than that, their best win is Minnesota at home.I haven't seen them play so maybe the eye test says otherwise, but it's not a mystery why a computer would have them at 46.

They looked shell shocked early at Assembly Hall...
Nobody is going to beat IU at assembly hall this year.

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Hoosiers looking great. Going deep into the bench.

Speaking of bench, hopefully they will have Sheehey back soon.

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Looking at Michigan's results, I'm not really impressed. They beat Memphis and UCLA in Maui, both big names but neither is having a very good season. Other than that, their best win is Minnesota at home.I haven't seen them play so maybe the eye test says otherwise, but it's not a mystery why a computer would have them at 46.

They looked shell shocked early at Assembly Hall...
Nobody is going to beat IU at assembly hall this year.
...or next year.

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Will be a good game tonight, but if Michigan let's IU get open threes it will not be that close. IU is deadly from 3-point land.

Indiana 4 of 6 so far. MSU was effective in taking away the three, but Michigan is giving IU way too many open looks.

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Michigan back in the game. They can really shoot 3's and have a couple of guys who can really get to the basket. Gonna be a close game

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Michigan back in the game. They can really shoot 3's and have a couple of guys who can really get to the basket. Gonna be a close game

Anybody who thinks Michigan is 43rd in the country is on dope.

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Michigan back in the game. They can really shoot 3's and have a couple of guys who can really get to the basket. Gonna be a close game

Anybody who thinks Michigan is 43rd in the country is on dope.
They look good. Shoot a lot of 3's which makes them dangerous, in this game at least.

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IU shooting 58% from the floor, including 7 for 11 from 3 point land, but are only up by three. :popcorn:

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One thing strange about IU is they are the best in the country at shooting threes, but yet doesn't shoot enough of them. While Michigan shoots too many.

Edited by jon_mx

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Hulls needs to learn to hang on to the ball and make them foul him. He passed off to an inferior shooter and Michigan wisely fouled him.

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Great game by Michigan/IU. Michigan is wild, they shoot like crazy. If they get hot in a game they can do damage.

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Great game by Michigan/IU. Michigan is wild, they shoot like crazy. If they get hot in a game they can do damage.

Mostly Hardaway. The others were a lot more disciplined. Michigan only had 12 turnovers to Indiana 16. What I really don't get IU only taking 3 threes in the second, making 2 of them. They should be putting up 8 or so every half, IMO.

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Penn State beat Purdue by 20 points. :unsure:

It will be a long year for Purdue in the Big 10. Too many really good teams in the league.

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Penn State is looking extra special bad, 10 points in the first half vs Saint Joseph... :thumbdown:

Penn State beat Purdue by 20 points. :unsure:

:excited:

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Ohio State pulled away a bit. What surprised me today was Nebraska almost beating Illinois on the road.

Edited by jon_mx

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Penn State beat Purdue by 20 points. :unsure:

Going to be a rough year. They'll win some tough games, but will probably finish at .500 in the conf and squeak into the tourney.

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Penn State beat Purdue by 20 points. :unsure:

Going to be a rough year. They'll win some tough games, but will probably finish at .500 in the conf and squeak into the tourney.
Purdue will be really lucky to finish at .500

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Penn State beat Purdue by 20 points. :unsure:

Going to be a rough year. They'll win some tough games, but will probably finish at .500 in the conf and squeak into the tourney.
Purdue will be really lucky to finish at .500
Hummel's not the same player. Lot's of guys need to develop. However, they are deep so I think they'll play well enough at times to get to the .500 mark. But it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't.

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Penn State beat Purdue by 20 points. :unsure:

Going to be a rough year. They'll win some tough games, but will probably finish at .500 in the conf and squeak into the tourney.
Purdue will be really lucky to finish at .500
Hummel's not the same player. Lot's of guys need to develop. However, they are deep so I think they'll play well enough at times to get to the .500 mark. But it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't.
They still have seven conference games left against ranked teams. I doubt they win more than one of those. Purdue is probably good enough to be in the tourney, but they have a tough hill to climb. That Penn State loss was huge one that they could not afford.

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Ohio State pulled away a bit. What surprised me today was Nebraska almost beating Illinois on the road.

Illinois is not good. Their basketball team reminds me of their football team. Good enough talent to finish in the top portion of the Big Ten, but they can't coach worth a crap. I will be happy as long as Weber stays there. If they hired the right coach they could see an almost IU level resurgence. The Chicago area is absolutely loaded with talent.

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Ohio State pulled away a bit. What surprised me today was Nebraska almost beating Illinois on the road.

Illinois is not good. Their basketball team reminds me of their football team. Good enough talent to finish in the top portion of the Big Ten, but they can't coach worth a crap. I will be happy as long as Weber stays there. If they hired the right coach they could see an almost IU level resurgence. The Chicago area is absolutely loaded with talent.
Not this year. Top 5 are pretty well set in stone. And see Purdue getting the 6th spot.

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IU hitting 13 for 20 for threes. Incredible shooting team. Penn State is playing well and would be winning otherwise.

Michigan and Wisconsin coming up

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Good showing so far by the Wolverines. Up by 13 with 3 mins left.

Hardaway with a good game today.

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