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Dynasty ROOKIE Draft: 2012 Rankings (1 Viewer)

sspunisher

Footballguy
Well...just got eliminated from 2 out of 3 leagues and I'm a huge underdog in my Week 15 matchup in my main league. So it's officially that time for me to start scouting the 2012 rookies.

List your pre-NFL Draft rookie rankings for 2012, maybe we can keep this updated as the college season, combine and NFL draft unfold. I'll contribute after I do a bit of scouting.

 
It's very early rankings and this will likely change a good bit but here is my starting point.

QB

Luck, Stanford

Barkely, USC

Griffin III, Baylor

RB

Richardson, Bama

L. Miller, Miami

D.Wilson, VTech

Ball, Wisc

Polk, Wash

James, Oregon

Peirce, Temple

WR

Blackmon, OSU

Jeffery, S. Car

Wright, Baylor

Sanu, Rutgers

Floyd, ND

D. Jones, UNC

Fuller, TAM

Top 10

1. Richardson

2. Luck

3. Barkley

4. Blackmon

5. Jeffery

6. L. Miller

7. D. Wilson

8. Griffin III

9. Wright

10. Sanu

 
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I agree with rankings posted for most part. I have #2 overall and would love to take LUCK there.

2 QB starting league.

Luck or Richardson depending on League Settings.

Then Blackmon.

After that you have a few solid RBs and WRs and a couple of decent QB options.

One thing you could do is send out MOCK drafts starting now to try and influence the picks of others.

RG3...#1 Heisman winner.

T Richardson...falls to #5. Did you get burned on Ingram in 2011? Well...why draft his teammate it'll just happen again.

 
Top 3 is pretty clearly Richardson, Blackmon, and Luck in some order depending on your format.

Michael Floyd is clearly my #4 pick in ppr leagues.

Beyond that, I haven't decided much. Need to see the combine and where these guys end up. There are a lot of players battling for those 6-12 spots. In particular, I think the RB picture will be a lot clearer once we know who has declared and once we see them at the combine.

 
Top 101. Richardson2. Luck3. Barkley4. Blackmon
Really sipping that Barkley Kool-Aid, eh? He'll be a first round NFL pick, but I doubt I'd spend a top 6 rookie pick on him. He had a good season, but like Leinart and Sanchez, he benefitted from a star-studded supporting cast. Robert Woods is probably the top 2013 WR in the nation. Marqise Lee might be even better. He topped 1000 yards as a true freshman and looks like he might be the stronger NFL prospect of the two.
 
Top 101. Richardson2. Luck3. Barkley4. Blackmon
Really sipping that Barkley Kool-Aid, eh? He'll be a first round NFL pick, but I doubt I'd spend a top 6 rookie pick on him. He had a good season, but like Leinart and Sanchez, he benefitted from a star-studded supporting cast. Robert Woods is probably the top 2013 WR in the nation. Marqise Lee might be even better. He topped 1000 yards as a true freshman and looks like he might be the stronger NFL prospect of the two.
Barkley is far more Carson Palmer (when he still had an arm) than he is Leinart or Sanchez. He is a franchise QB IMO. As I said at the beginning the year Barkley is a guy I wanted to pay closer attention to this season. Nothing I've seen of him has disappointed. Pro-style offense, progression of reads, solid mechanics and footwork, can make all the throws and seems to have the right intangibles for the next level. Right now the rankings are mostly based on my level of confidence at the players NFL success rather than true fantasy potential. Some of the RBs will undoubtedly move up the rankings once we get a clearer picture of the combine, draft position and other off-season maneuvers.
 
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Top 3 is pretty clearly Richardson, Blackmon, and Luck in some order depending on your format.Michael Floyd is clearly my #4 pick in ppr leagues. Beyond that, I haven't decided much. Need to see the combine and where these guys end up. There are a lot of players battling for those 6-12 spots. In particular, I think the RB picture will be a lot clearer once we know who has declared and once we see them at the combine.
EBF, just curious whether Lamar Smith could surpass Blackmon and Luck in your rankings after the combine? Basically, with the scarcity of RBs, I'm wondering whether he has potential to move up behind Richardson with a good combine. Especially when considering that he might land on an more established offense if taken later in the first round. Is this possible, or are the top 4 basically cemented in your mind? This also brings up the always important question of whether RBs are truly more valuable than WRs and QBs in rookie drafts? I think they are generally but then you look at what happened to Ingram this year and most would prefer to draft Green and Jones over Ingram if the draft were re-conducted today. This suggests that Blackmon and maybe Floyd could be better picks than the RBs. But I could probably find examples supporting the other side, so how do you think about this question?Anyone can chime in on this but always want EBF's opinion on rookie matters. Thank you!
 
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I've been pretty busy this year and I haven't had as much time as usual to watch games, so I'm not as well-versed on a lot of these guys as I'd like to be. I need to watch more of players like Miller, D Wilson, and Ball before I feel really comfortable ranking them.

Having said that, I'd be really surprised if Miller was able to jump ahead of Blackmon or Luck in my rankings. You see 4-5 RBs of his quality enter the league every season, whereas Blackmon and especially Luck are more rare commodities. In general, I'm usually going to take a solid first round WR (Blackmon and Floyd) and an elite first round QB (Luck) over a 2nd-3rd round RB, which is what Miller looks like to me.

 
It's very early rankings and this will likely change a good bit but here is my starting point.

QB

Luck, Stanford

Barkely, USC

Griffin III, Baylor

RB

Richardson, Bama

L. Miller, Miami

D.Wilson, VTech

Ball, Wisc

Polk, Wash

James, Oregon

Peirce, Temple

WR

Blackmon, OSU

Jeffery, S. Car

Wright, Baylor

Sanu, Rutgers

Floyd, ND

D. Jones, UNC

Fuller, TAM

Top 10

1. Richardson

2. Luck

3. Barkley

4. Blackmon

5. Jeffery

6. L. Miller

7. D. Wilson

8. Griffin III

9. Wright

10. Sanu
:goodposting:
 
I don't have enough scouting done to put out a list I'm comfortable with, but I will say that Doug Martin and Montee Ball are being significantly underrated. Ball is being seen as a product of the Wisconsin system when in reality he is a standout prospect. After being a Heisman finalist maybe he'll start getting more attention. Martin isn't flashy, which is why he's underrated. But he has the skill set of an NFL starter. The vision, quickness, and size are all there for him to be productive.

I expect their stocks to rise after the combine and draft. They're each worth a mid to late 1st IMO.

 
Top 10

1. Richardson

2. Luck

3. Barkley

4. Blackmon
Really sipping that Barkley Kool-Aid, eh? He'll be a first round NFL pick, but I doubt I'd spend a top 6 rookie pick on him. He had a good season, but like Leinart and Sanchez, he benefitted from a star-studded supporting cast. Robert Woods is probably the top 2013 WR in the nation. Marqise Lee might be even better. He topped 1000 yards as a true freshman and looks like he might be the stronger NFL prospect of the two.
Barkley is far more Carson Palmer (when he still had an arm) than he is Leinart or Sanchez. He is a franchise QB IMO. As I said at the beginning the year Barkley is a guy I wanted to pay closer attention to this season. Nothing I've seen of him has disappointed. Pro-style offense, progression of reads, solid mechanics and footwork, can make all the throws and seems to have the right intangibles for the next level. Right now the rankings are mostly based on my level of confidence at the players NFL success rather than true fantasy potential. Some of the RBs will undoubtedly move up the rankings once we get a clearer picture of the combine, draft position and other off-season maneuvers.
I like Barkley, but this couldn't be further from the truth. He throws off balance and off his back foot way too much.
 
I don't really watch college ball but I'm going to make an effort to catch some of these bowl games.

Which players values are the most volatile right now? I want to keep an eye on players who's stock will either skyrocket or plummet based on their performance in these bowl games.

 
This also brings up the always important question of whether RBs are truly more valuable than WRs and QBs in rookie drafts? I think they are generally but then you look at what happened to Ingram this year and most would prefer to draft Green and Jones over Ingram if the draft were re-conducted today. This suggests that Blackmon and maybe Floyd could be better picks than the RBs. But I could probably find examples supporting the other side, so how do you think about this question?
In deeper dynasty leagues like Zealots, I've come around to drafting BPA instead of all-RB-all-the-time-until-they-run-out. By BPA I don't mean taking a CB at #1 overall - for instance last year, I thought Patrick Peterson was the best player in the draft but wouldn't even think about taking him until later. But I wasted too many 1st round picks over the years reaching for RBs who did little or nothing while passing on players at WR or QB who I knew were better players. If I think Blackmon/Floyd/Luck/RGIII are better than all of the RBs except Richardson, I'm taking them instead of the next RB. You win in dynasty by having a lot of good players across all positions, not by having 42 RBs.
 
I agree with rankings posted for most part. I have #2 overall and would love to take LUCK there. 2 QB starting league. Luck or Richardson depending on League Settings.Then Blackmon. After that you have a few solid RBs and WRs and a couple of decent QB options. One thing you could do is send out MOCK drafts starting now to try and influence the picks of others. RG3...#1 Heisman winner.T Richardson...falls to #5. Did you get burned on Ingram in 2011? Well...why draft his teammate it'll just happen again.
In a 2qb setup I'd go Luck, Barkley, Griffin, Richardson. I passed on Cam last season for Mark Ingram. He's in time share now. Cam isn't. Neither is Dalton, Yates, Gabbert, Ponder, etc... See where I'm going with this. You have to be on the field to score points. In a 2QB league, Qbs rule the roost because of scarcity.
 
I think Richardson and Luck will go 1 & 2 in most formats and then it gets a little dicey.

I have RGIII ahead of Barkley for the #2 QB because of his legs. He looks to be a more accurate version of Cam.

It is too early to think about ranking all of the other RBs. This position all depends where they get drafted. I would still take Richardson ahead of all the other running backs no matter what though.

As far as WR goes I would rank them in this order. Blackmon, Floyd, Jeffery & Wright. After that I think it will also depend on what team drafts them.

 
I think Richardson and Luck will go 1 & 2 in most formats and then it gets a little dicey. I have RGIII ahead of Barkley for the #2 QB because of his legs. He looks to be a more accurate version of Cam. It is too early to think about ranking all of the other RBs. This position all depends where they get drafted. I would still take Richardson ahead of all the other running backs no matter what though.As far as WR goes I would rank them in this order. Blackmon, Floyd, Jeffery & Wright. After that I think it will also depend on what team drafts them.
Only start 2 qb leagues take a QB in the top three 99% of the time, regardless who they are. No doubt the top 3 will be 1) Richardson, 2) Blackmon, 3) Floyd.
 
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I think Richardson and Luck will go 1 & 2 in most formats and then it gets a little dicey. I have RGIII ahead of Barkley for the #2 QB because of his legs. He looks to be a more accurate version of Cam. It is too early to think about ranking all of the other RBs. This position all depends where they get drafted. I would still take Richardson ahead of all the other running backs no matter what though.As far as WR goes I would rank them in this order. Blackmon, Floyd, Jeffery & Wright. After that I think it will also depend on what team drafts them.
Only start 2 qb leagues take a QB in the top three 99% of the time, regardless who they are. No doubt the top 3 will be 1) Richardson, 2) Blackmon, 3) Floyd.
:goodposting:
 
If I had a #1 pick, it'd be Griffin or Richardson, without doubt.

Likely Griffin.

You guys really need to open those eyes. Grab a beer. Watch him play.

He's football porn.

 
'rizzler said:
If I had a #1 pick, it'd be Griffin or Richardson, without doubt.Likely Griffin.You guys really need to open those eyes. Grab a beer. Watch him play.He's football porn.
So was Mike Vick
 
My top 10 right now...

1-Richardson

2-Luck

3-Blackmon

4-Floyd

5-Griffin III

6-Barkley

7-Ball

8-Miller

9-Polk

10-James

 
'rizzler said:
If I had a #1 pick, it'd be Griffin or Richardson, without doubt.Likely Griffin.You guys really need to open those eyes. Grab a beer. Watch him play.He's football porn.
So was Mike Vick
Vick was a first rounder in a lot of drafts just this past season. Sounds like you are endorsing Griffin.
 
I'll join the Griffin love fest. If he lands somewhere he can take over quickly, I could see him as high as 1. I was huge on Cam as a dual-threat QB last year and I think RG3 has a similar future. Take a look at where people are ranking Cam among dynasty QBs right now.

For me, RG3/Trent/Blackmon are 1/2/3 depending on landing places. Luck 4. Barkley 5.

L.James may drop a little in the real draft, but he belongs just outside the top 5 IMO.

 
I am pretty high on Griffin and would take him over Luck, but he is not Cam and will be a top 5 QB this time this year. Taking him (or Luck) over Richardson or Blackmon is folly, IMO. It's a disservice to Cam to use his season to argue for Griffin over elite RB/WR.

 
I agree with rankings posted for most part. I have #2 overall and would love to take LUCK there. 2 QB starting league. Luck or Richardson depending on League Settings.Then Blackmon. After that you have a few solid RBs and WRs and a couple of decent QB options. One thing you could do is send out MOCK drafts starting now to try and influence the picks of others. RG3...#1 Heisman winner.T Richardson...falls to #5. Did you get burned on Ingram in 2011? Well...why draft his teammate it'll just happen again.
I agree that 2 QB leagues chance the dynamic signficantly because finding 24 serviceable QBs is hard. Taking a player like Luck that may start for 10+ years is better than a RB for 3-4 productive years.BUT ... I'm in a contract keeper league where you can only keep rookies for 3 years. In that case, the career-span advantage of a QB is wiped out. That's why I passed on this year's batch of QBs. Sure, we now know that Cam should have been the 1st rookie pick in 2 QB leagues, but we didn't know that then. Think about the poor guy holding Gabbert (who went after Cam in my 2 QB league). So it will be tough for me to take Luck or Griffin before Richardson and probably Blackmon. But likely take them before the second tier at other positions.
 
I have the second overall pick in a standard scoring league. Unless Richardson falls to me at #2, I'll go with the BFFPA(Best Fantasy Football Player Available) which will unquestionably be Griffin. This guy is going to be special in any Fantasy Format. While many are projecting Luck to be the top QB in this draft, Griffin's athleticism and rushing ability is going to put him head and shoulders above any other rookie prospect next year. From watching this kid in college, he is going to be special in the NFL. Depending how the mocks pan out,I am sure I could trade down to 2 or 3 slots and still grab RGIII due to historically, QB's aren't normally drafted in the top 5 in that league.

 
Is it just me or is Griffin a more high risk/high reward type risky pick at QB? I know Newton has worked out well but there are also guys like Vince Young that didn't. I'm not going to knock anyone for putting Griffin high on their list but is he riskier than Luck?

 
Is it just me or is Griffin a more high risk/high reward type risky pick at QB? I know Newton has worked out well but there are also guys like Vince Young that didn't. I'm not going to knock anyone for putting Griffin high on their list but is he riskier than Luck?
I don't think he is nearly as risky as Young would have been, although hindsight is hard to completely rule out. Griffin is smarter and a much better pure passer. I would agree that he is riskier than Luck. It is hard to ignore the countless professionals claiming Luck is the best QB prospect ever. Hard to bet against a guy like that, when it comes to NFL success.
 
I think so. The thing that makes Luck a good pick isn't necessarily that he has the highest ceiling (though he does have superstar potential), but rather that he's a very safe bet to become a solid pro. I really can't envision him being any worse than Matt Ryan or the pre-2011 Eli Manning. He does all of the things that you need an NFL QB to do.

I think Griffin is definitely benefiting from Newton's success. He might end up becoming a great NFL player in his own right, but he's not Cam. For one thing, he's several inches shorter and not nearly as heavy. If you are going to arbitrarily compare him to a black running QB, Mike Vick and Donovan McNabb might be better choices, at least physically. The thing that intrigues me about Griffin is his accuracy. He has been very tidy with the ball, which separates him from guys like Vick and McNabb. Of course, there's a big difference between doing it on Saturdays against soft Big 12 defenses and doing it on Sundays. If that weren't the case, Colt McCoy would be a Pro Bowler and Brandon Weeden would be a mortal first round lock.

 
I think so. The thing that makes Luck a good pick isn't necessarily that he has the highest ceiling (though he does have superstar potential), but rather that he's a very safe bet to become a solid pro. I really can't envision him being any worse than Matt Ryan or the pre-2011 Eli Manning. He does all of the things that you need an NFL QB to do. I think Griffin is definitely benefiting from Newton's success. He might end up becoming a great NFL player in his own right, but he's not Cam. For one thing, he's several inches shorter and not nearly as heavy. If you are going to arbitrarily compare him to a black running QB, Mike Vick and Donovan McNabb might be better choices, at least physically. The thing that intrigues me about Griffin is his accuracy. He has been very tidy with the ball, which separates him from guys like Vick and McNabb. Of course, there's a big difference between doing it on Saturdays against soft Big 12 defenses and doing it on Sundays. If that weren't the case, Colt McCoy would be a Pro Bowler and Brandon Weeden would be a mortal first round lock.
Good post, Funk. RG's size is my major concern. He's got all the smarts, arm, athleticism, and accuracy you'd want but he ain't a physical freak like Cam or Tebow. RG reminds me more of Brees with running ability or maybe Steve Young (NOT saying he's ever going to be in their league, just that his style/size/brain reminds me of them).
 
I love Griffin as much as anyone, and think he should be a top 5 pick in the real draft, but I couldn't take him over Luck. Luck has just as much superstar potential, but if fails he will be a Matt Ryan type, and still a good fantasy QB. Griffin could be an elite dual threat QB, but there's risk there that you don't get with Luck. Still a top 5 pick in both real and rookie draft? Yes. But not over a safe player like Luck.

 
'rizzler said:
If I had a #1 pick, it'd be Griffin or Richardson, without doubt.Likely Griffin.You guys really need to open those eyes. Grab a beer. Watch him play.He's football porn.
You don't spend the first overall pick in a dynasty league on a QB. I guess most of the people saying this are mainly redraft players or dynasty start 2 QB players.
 
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Just curious what do you think the rookie draft would look like from a dynasty perspective if last years rookies where in the current draft? It would be helpful when thinking about the rookie values i am guessing something like:

1. Richardson

2. Green

3. Jones

4. Blackmon

5. Luck

6. Ingram

7. Floyd

8. Helu

I don't know I'm just thinking out loud. Seems like Richardson would go first then the tree stud wrs which you could probably argue in any order. Then maybe luck?

Any thoughts?

 
Just curious what do you think the rookie draft would look like from a dynasty perspective if last years rookies where in the current draft? It would be helpful when thinking about the rookie values i am guessing something like:1. Richardson2. Green3. Jones4. Blackmon5. Luck6. Ingram7. Floyd8. HeluI don't know I'm just thinking out loud. Seems like Richardson would go first then the tree stud wrs which you could probably argue in any order. Then maybe luck?Any thoughts?
Cam Newton needs to be the top player or one of the top players after this FF season.I would rather have David Wilson over Ingram
 
'rizzler said:
If I had a #1 pick, it'd be Griffin or Richardson, without doubt.Likely Griffin.You guys really need to open those eyes. Grab a beer. Watch him play.He's football porn.
You don't spend the first overall pick in a dynasty league on a QB. I guess most of the people saying this are mainly redraft players or dynasty start 2 QB players.
In our start 2 QB, QB heavy scoring dynasty, I'm guessing top 5 will be...LuckRG3BarkleyRichardsonBlackmonQB's are VERY valuable, and rarely get traded.
 
You don't spend the first overall pick in a dynasty league on a QB. I guess most of the people saying this are mainly redraft players or dynasty start 2 QB players.
Really? Rodgers wouldnt be a solid #1 pick in a dynasty?To each their own... and I know you and I seem to disagree on most things, but I know exactly where you're coming from with this statement. a RB seems to be the smart choice at #1... I completely buy it. I can argue countless reason as to why as well.But when a guy like this comes along, that I've spent countless hours watching, and completely believe in... I'd reach and take him number 1. Griffin could, as with all rookies, flop or sustain an injury tat ruins his career. Pure risk. But that goes for any player, really.To be completely honest, I'd like to see Griffin put in a season before I drafted him no1, to be safe. Ideally Id be drafting 2 yrs from now, to feel super secure about my choosing Griffin. But regardless of this, Id still do it. I'm a risk taker. Sometimes it works out, sometimes I smash my head on the wall.Griffin for me.
 
You don't spend the first overall pick in a dynasty league on a QB. I guess most of the people saying this are mainly redraft players or dynasty start 2 QB players.
Really? Rodgers wouldnt be a solid #1 pick in a dynasty?
He's talking about a rookie draft.
ok, but my point still stands.I look at a guy like Ingram... and just had that gut feeling he wouldnt be "the guy" people thought he was (and it's wayyyy too early to say I was right, but I feel I will be).I feel the same way about Luck. Time will tell.
 
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I think so. The thing that makes Luck a good pick isn't necessarily that he has the highest ceiling (though he does have superstar potential), but rather that he's a very safe bet to become a solid pro. I really can't envision him being any worse than Matt Ryan or the pre-2011 Eli Manning. He does all of the things that you need an NFL QB to do.

I think Griffin is definitely benefiting from Newton's success. He might end up becoming a great NFL player in his own right, but he's not Cam. For one thing, he's several inches shorter and not nearly as heavy. If you are going to arbitrarily compare him to a black running QB, Mike Vick and Donovan McNabb might be better choices, at least physically. The thing that intrigues me about Griffin is his accuracy. He has been very tidy with the ball, which separates him from guys like Vick and McNabb. Of course, there's a big difference between doing it on Saturdays against soft Big 12 defenses and doing it on Sundays. If that weren't the case, Colt McCoy would be a Pro Bowler and Brandon Weeden would be a mortal first round lock.
If the bolded is to say that elite stats, without more, do not make for an elite prospect, then no one could disagree. If the bolded is even slightly intended to compare Griffin's NFL prospects to McCoy and Weeden based on the defences their stats came against, then we have a problem.

 
RB:

1. Trent Richardson

2. Lamar Miller

3. David Wilson

4. Chris Polk

T-5. Bernard Pierce

T-5. Doug Martin

WR:

1. Justin Blackmon

2. Michael Floyd

3. Kendall Wright

4. Dwight Jones

5. Mohamed Sanu

QB:

1. Andrew Luck

2. Robert Griffin III

3. Matt Barkley

4. Ryan Tannehill

5. Landry Jones

Top 12:

1. Trent Richardson

2. Justin Blackmon

3. Andrew Luck

4. Lamar Miller

5. Michael Floyd

6. Robert Griffin III

7. David Wilson

8. Kendall Wright

9. Chris Polk

10. Dwight Jones

11. Bernard Pierce

12. Doug Martin

 
'Hoss_Cartwright said:
'rizzler said:
If I had a #1 pick, it'd be Griffin or Richardson, without doubt.

Likely Griffin.

You guys really need to open those eyes. Grab a beer. Watch him play.

He's football porn.
You don't spend the first overall pick in a dynasty league on a QB. I guess most of the people saying this are mainly redraft players or dynasty start 2 QB players.
Based on the career VBD numbers which I posted here, from 1979-2007 there were 6 QBs who deserved to be the #1 dynasty rookie pick (Rodgers, Manning, Favre, Moon, Marino, and Montana). They're joined by 4 WRs (Owens, J. Smith, Carter, and Rice), 2 TEs (Gates & Gonzalez), and 17 RBs (Peterson, Jones-Drew, S. Jackson, Portis, Tomlinson, Alexander, James, Martin, Faulk, Bettis, Smith, Sanders, Thomas, N. Anderson, Allen, Brooks, & Sims). Fitzgerald & Brady could also still unseat S Jax & Alexander for the top spots in their draft classes.Basically, if you knew that a player was going to be a Hall of Famer, then he would probably deserve to be the 1st or 2nd pick in a rookie draft regardless of position.

This is all based on PFR's numbers from before this season (1/10 yd rush/rec, 1/25 passing, 6/td all, -2/int; baseline of RB24, WR30, QB12, and TE12).

 

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