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at some of you acting like I'm the one who made the statements.
Wasn't trying to attack you specifically, sorry if it came off like that. I just disagree with the assertion that his reasoning made sense. From pointing to the success Reid has had as Eagles head coach (primarily inconsequential in a 'what have you done for me lately' league) while ignoring the more recent years of mediocrity to putting Reid's arrogance and aloofness in pressers on the media (asking them to work harder to understand his ideal of protecting the players ego's..WTF!?) to saying Reid is very open to change, to flat out saying that this season was unacceptable-only to turn around and lay not an ounce of responsibility at the feet of the architect of this season, while giving full support to Reid in all future coaching selections; his presser came off as very well thought out, but at the end of the day, out-of-touch with the fan base and IMHO out-of-touch reality.
I guess he may not have sounded like a lot of fans, but he sounds like my view as a fan. At the end of the day the allure of change of any kind after a disappointing season is STRONG (he said as much), and certainly that can feel like the right move. And enough has happened recently to justify a change. BUT, the question you always have to ask yourself is will a change LIKELY result in improved performance. No matter whether you're a Reid lover, hater or ambivalent, it's very hard to argue that firing Andy and hiring someone new will LIKELY improve the team. I could, certainly. But it wouldn't be 50/50 odds. Not even close.'Wasn't trying to attack you specifically, sorry if it came off like that. I just disagree with the assertion that his reasoning made sense. From pointing to the success Reid has had as Eagles head coach (primarily inconsequential in a 'what have you done for me lately' league) while ignoring the more recent years of mediocrity to putting Reid's arrogance and aloofness in pressers on the media (asking them to work harder to understand his ideal of protecting the players ego's..WTF!?) to saying Reid is very open to change, to flat out saying that this season was unacceptable-only to turn around and lay not an ounce of responsibility at the feet of the architect of this season, while giving full support to Reid in all future coaching selections; his presser came off as very well thought out, but at the end of the day, out-of-touch with the fan base and IMHO out-of-touch reality.
I'm curious to hear why it wouldnt even be close. This was an 8-8 team, correct? This is the same coach that is 0-13 in getting us a SB, correct? I am not going to say it's a slam dunk but lets not act like the guy who would replace Reid would be replacing Jesus.I guess he may not have sounded like a lot of fans, but he sounds like my view as a fan. At the end of the day the allure of change of any kind after a disappointing season is STRONG (he said as much), and certainly that can feel like the right move. And enough has happened recently to justify a change. BUT, the question you always have to ask yourself is will a change LIKELY result in improved performance. No matter whether you're a Reid lover, hater or ambivalent, it's very hard to argue that firing Andy and hiring someone new will LIKELY improve the team. I could, certainly. But it wouldn't be 50/50 odds. Not even close.'Wasn't trying to attack you specifically, sorry if it came off like that. I just disagree with the assertion that his reasoning made sense. From pointing to the success Reid has had as Eagles head coach (primarily inconsequential in a 'what have you done for me lately' league) while ignoring the more recent years of mediocrity to putting Reid's arrogance and aloofness in pressers on the media (asking them to work harder to understand his ideal of protecting the players ego's..WTF!?) to saying Reid is very open to change, to flat out saying that this season was unacceptable-only to turn around and lay not an ounce of responsibility at the feet of the architect of this season, while giving full support to Reid in all future coaching selections; his presser came off as very well thought out, but at the end of the day, out-of-touch with the fan base and IMHO out-of-touch reality.
I 100% respect anyone's desire to see a change, that's your prerogative. It's also your prerogative to think Lurie's presser wasn't well handled. I respectfully disagree and think he came across as completely aware and reasoned. Just because you may not agree with his conclusion doesn't mean his process couldn't have been sound.
Basic statistics argues it would be lower than 50/50. You've got a much better than average coach and resume to replace, and would be replacing him with someone that's never performed in the role (of Philly's head coach). Again, I'm not saying it's impossible. And I would've been fine with that path if we went down it, but realistically the odds of the next guy being as effective as Andy are slim. You hope you can hit a home run twice, but not sure there's much precedent for it.One could point to Mike Tomlin replacing Bill Cowher as proof it can be done effectively, but there aren't many coaches out there that have amassed Reid's resume in 13 seasons.I'm curious to hear why it wouldnt even be close. This was an 8-8 team, correct? This is the same coach that is 0-13 in getting us a SB, correct? I am not going to say it's a slam dunk but lets not act like the guy who would replace Reid would be replacing Jesus.I guess he may not have sounded like a lot of fans, but he sounds like my view as a fan. At the end of the day the allure of change of any kind after a disappointing season is STRONG (he said as much), and certainly that can feel like the right move. And enough has happened recently to justify a change. BUT, the question you always have to ask yourself is will a change LIKELY result in improved performance. No matter whether you're a Reid lover, hater or ambivalent, it's very hard to argue that firing Andy and hiring someone new will LIKELY improve the team. I could, certainly. But it wouldn't be 50/50 odds. Not even close.'Wasn't trying to attack you specifically, sorry if it came off like that. I just disagree with the assertion that his reasoning made sense. From pointing to the success Reid has had as Eagles head coach (primarily inconsequential in a 'what have you done for me lately' league) while ignoring the more recent years of mediocrity to putting Reid's arrogance and aloofness in pressers on the media (asking them to work harder to understand his ideal of protecting the players ego's..WTF!?) to saying Reid is very open to change, to flat out saying that this season was unacceptable-only to turn around and lay not an ounce of responsibility at the feet of the architect of this season, while giving full support to Reid in all future coaching selections; his presser came off as very well thought out, but at the end of the day, out-of-touch with the fan base and IMHO out-of-touch reality.
I 100% respect anyone's desire to see a change, that's your prerogative. It's also your prerogative to think Lurie's presser wasn't well handled. I respectfully disagree and think he came across as completely aware and reasoned. Just because you may not agree with his conclusion doesn't mean his process couldn't have been sound.
I'm the complete opposite as you I suppose. I can't see how, with the talent of this team, you can not be better then 8-8 or be "good enough" for a one and done in the playoffs..especially considering the state of our division.
You can't answer this question until you make a change. The only thing we know for certain is that Andy Reid has not won a Superbowl. Whether someone else can step in and take this team to next level you can't answer.I guess he may not have sounded like a lot of fans, but he sounds like my view as a fan. At the end of the day the allure of change of any kind after a disappointing season is STRONG (he said as much), and certainly that can feel like the right move. And enough has happened recently to justify a change. BUT, the question you always have to ask yourself is will a change LIKELY result in improved performance. No matter whether you're a Reid lover, hater or ambivalent, it's very hard to argue that firing Andy and hiring someone new will LIKELY improve the team. I could, certainly. But it wouldn't be 50/50 odds. Not even close.'Wasn't trying to attack you specifically, sorry if it came off like that. I just disagree with the assertion that his reasoning made sense. From pointing to the success Reid has had as Eagles head coach (primarily inconsequential in a 'what have you done for me lately' league) while ignoring the more recent years of mediocrity to putting Reid's arrogance and aloofness in pressers on the media (asking them to work harder to understand his ideal of protecting the players ego's..WTF!?) to saying Reid is very open to change, to flat out saying that this season was unacceptable-only to turn around and lay not an ounce of responsibility at the feet of the architect of this season, while giving full support to Reid in all future coaching selections; his presser came off as very well thought out, but at the end of the day, out-of-touch with the fan base and IMHO out-of-touch reality.
I 100% respect anyone's desire to see a change, that's your prerogative. It's also your prerogative to think Lurie's presser wasn't well handled. I respectfully disagree and think he came across as completely aware and reasoned. Just because you may not agree with his conclusion doesn't mean his process couldn't have been sound.
They haven't hit a homerun once yet. You could say they've hit one to the warning track, but it hasn't left the yard yet. Over the last 7 NFL season's, the Eagles have won a playoff game in 2 of them ('06 & '08) and none in the last 3. The Eagles have been very mediocre since their SB loss. And Andy's been the architect of each of them. His overall body of work is very impressive; the last 7 years, not so much. And most HC's don't get more than 7 years without winning something.Coughlin won a SB 5 years ago and was rumored to be fired if they missed the playoffs this year. Andy lost the NFCCG 4 years ago and nothing since.Basic statistics argues it would be lower than 50/50. You've got a much better than average coach and resume to replace, and would be replacing him with someone that's never performed in the role (of Philly's head coach). Again, I'm not saying it's impossible. And I would've been fine with that path if we went down it, but realistically the odds of the next guy being as effective as Andy are slim. You hope you can hit a home run twice, but not sure there's much precedent for it.One could point to Mike Tomlin replacing Bill Cowher as proof it can be done effectively, but there aren't many coaches out there that have amassed Reid's resume in 13 seasons.I'm curious to hear why it wouldnt even be close. This was an 8-8 team, correct? This is the same coach that is 0-13 in getting us a SB, correct? I am not going to say it's a slam dunk but lets not act like the guy who would replace Reid would be replacing Jesus.I guess he may not have sounded like a lot of fans, but he sounds like my view as a fan. At the end of the day the allure of change of any kind after a disappointing season is STRONG (he said as much), and certainly that can feel like the right move. And enough has happened recently to justify a change. BUT, the question you always have to ask yourself is will a change LIKELY result in improved performance. No matter whether you're a Reid lover, hater or ambivalent, it's very hard to argue that firing Andy and hiring someone new will LIKELY improve the team. I could, certainly. But it wouldn't be 50/50 odds. Not even close.'Wasn't trying to attack you specifically, sorry if it came off like that. I just disagree with the assertion that his reasoning made sense. From pointing to the success Reid has had as Eagles head coach (primarily inconsequential in a 'what have you done for me lately' league) while ignoring the more recent years of mediocrity to putting Reid's arrogance and aloofness in pressers on the media (asking them to work harder to understand his ideal of protecting the players ego's..WTF!?) to saying Reid is very open to change, to flat out saying that this season was unacceptable-only to turn around and lay not an ounce of responsibility at the feet of the architect of this season, while giving full support to Reid in all future coaching selections; his presser came off as very well thought out, but at the end of the day, out-of-touch with the fan base and IMHO out-of-touch reality.
I 100% respect anyone's desire to see a change, that's your prerogative. It's also your prerogative to think Lurie's presser wasn't well handled. I respectfully disagree and think he came across as completely aware and reasoned. Just because you may not agree with his conclusion doesn't mean his process couldn't have been sound.
I'm the complete opposite as you I suppose. I can't see how, with the talent of this team, you can not be better then 8-8 or be "good enough" for a one and done in the playoffs..especially considering the state of our division.
I posted a comparison in a thread mid season. Wasn't favorable for Andy at the time. I checked the current numbers now that '11's in the books.Kotite's 4 years, 36-28 with a 1-1 playoff record.Andy's last 4 years, 38-25-1 with a 2-3 playoff record.Andy nosed out Rich with the season ending 4 game win streak.
I will never understand the point of this comparison. But it will all be moot after another failure in 2012.Can we also do Reid vs Norv Turner and Reid vs Marty Shottenheimer?TIA'dhockster said:
How about this guy?Through first 13 full seasons:Jeff Fisher: 114 wins, 94 losses, 0 ties, 1-1 AFCCG record, one superbowl appearance, no super bowls won.In years 14-16 Fisher won zero playoff games.
Completely agree. After next season we'll either be celebrating a championship or saying goodbye to a pointless comparison. The way Andy runs the Eagles is nothing like Cowher/Steelers.I heard Adam Schefter on Mike 'n Mike this morning spouting the usual national media rhetoric. Andy's body of work is so impressive yada yada yada. I agree Schefty, but the 2011/2012 version of Andy and the Eagles is not the same as the 2000-2004 version. The version we've seen over the last 7 years has been far less successful. And 7 years is a pretty good sample size.
And if the Eagles fired Andy and hired Fisher, would you be happy or sad?Would the next coach of the Eagles have to have won a super bowl before to be the right coach after Andy?How many years of coaching (for any number of teams) without winning a super bowl before we know for certain a coach will never win a super bowl?Every year only 1 team of 32 gets to win the super bowl. Only one of 32 head coaches - more if you count the ones fired mid-season.45 super bowls to date - 45 chances for a head coaches have won - how many have won? How many have never won?In the end, when you look who's out there versus what you already have, it not out of the realm of possibility to conclude that what you already have is the best option, especially when the only thing you are concerned with is winning a super bowl.I have no major issue with continuing on with Reid for one more season. I don't think the way the defense struggled was a surprise to anyone. I think we all saw this coming. I think we hoped our offense would steal some wins, and it didn't. As much as the defense gave up leads late in games, the offense stopped scoring too. I think the plan was to make the play-offs while the defense figured things out. I think distractions of D Jax and Asante are what edged us out of the play-offs and caused issues in the locker room. That I pin on Banner and Roseman.
Fisher- sad sort of. Happy for the change
My point is very simple. Just because a coach has failed to win the super bowl for 13 years does not mean he willnot win it in year 14. Cowher is an example of this. People want to get rid of Reid because they assume he will never win a championship (I assume you are one of those people because you are already predicting failure for 2012). I would ratherkeep Reid because with him we will go to the playoffs about 75% of the time and he has shown that he can win playoff games.You cannot win a championship if you do not make the playoffs. As to comparing Reid to Turner, Turner has a losing regular season record, has made the playoffs only 4 times in 14 years as head coach, andhas made it to only one AFC Championship game which he lost. If the Eagles had Turner as their coach right now and had just played the season they just did, I would fire him based on his overall resume.Schottenheimer has a great regular season record, but his playoff record is only 5-13 and he is 0-3 in AFC Championship games. I think Reid rates above Schottenheimer because Reid's teams perform better in the playoffs.I have nothing against people who feel it is time for Reid to go. I understand their reasoning. I might even agree with it, if I didn't think the Eagles are in a position right where they have a good chance to have a very good season next season. Because of his prior success and where the Eagles are right now, I give Reid one more year before I boot him out the door.
Agreed - We can't say it won't happen, we can't say it will happen. History, when it comes to winning super bowls, is hard to look at for trend application - 45 is a small sample size. Which I think is my point. What can we draw from Cowher's history? Only that it can take 14 years to win a super bowl. We can't take that 14 is the max before you won't. We can't say that Cowher will ever win one again, if he ever coaches again. Some would suggest Cowher is a good coach because he has won - well, what if it takes him another 14 years to win the next one? History is still being made - maybe Andy has something left to show us.Cowher comes up only because it proves it CAN happen. Not that it will, but that it can - just like anyone of 32 head coaches can win the super bowl any given year, but only 1 will. Cowher comes up for those who make it sound as if it won't happen. Not that it's possible that Reid won't win a super bowl next year - that's not a big leap to make - 31 of 32 teams won't - you have 96.875% chance of being right regardless of what the Eagles do or don't do this off-season - somebody has to win, but on the flip side, all but one will lose. What I'm saying is, we have a chance, which is all you ever really have.And I agree with your assessment on who to hire if and when Reid is fired - I'd like to see a hungry new comer, like Reid was, over some of the popular retreads who are currently talking heads.
I havent checked and I very well could be wrong but isn't Cowher the ONLY example of this?I almost get a feeling from some in here that once he's past the Bill Cowher benchmark of 14 years, then it's OK to get rid of him.
Cowher probably is the only example because how many Coaches these days get to coach 14 years without winning a superbowl?I look at the Eagles situation for next year as this:
People are scared of change.
Coaches who have won the Superbowl in their first year as head coachDon McCafferty Superbowl V
I sort of was with you until you got here..We don't know what would happen with a new coach, but to say that the Eagles have a better shot with Reid makes little sense to me. He is the only coach we have a body of work to judge against and he has never done it. If you watch a kicker hit the uprights, but miss, 13 60 yard FGs in a row, and there is another kicker standing there, what would make you decide to stay with the guy that missed 13 times? Do you know that the new guy can get it done? Of course not! But at some point, no matter how good the first guy seems to be, you gotta move on. Oversimplified example I know, but the point I am trying to make is illustrated all the same.
Good point. I think Seifert is somewhat of an outlier because he inherited a superbowl team on which he had been defensive coordinator and he had Joe Montana running the west coast offense which means he pretty much didn't need an offensive coordinator by that point in Joe's career.Unless you or the Eagles can identify a candidate out there right now who is the next can't miss coaching prospect I still think Reid is the better option for next year. That's just my opinion and my opinions have been proven incorrect in the past.
What you are saying makes perfect sense. And if the Eagles had totally quit at the end of the season, I would be right there with you. I just think we saw enough good things from this team this year despite the ridiculus amount of transition they went through that making a change in coaches during this offseason is more likely to result in a worse team in 2012. Just my opinion.
Why does the next coach have to be a can't miss candidate? I'm not even certain there is such a thing. Belichick is a future HOF coach, yet his first try at head coaching his teams went 36-44 before he was fired. He surely wasn't considered can't miss when NE hired him, he was a re-tread. Same with Andy Reid, he certainly wasn't a can't miss candidate when he was hired here. Whomever the Eagles eventually bring in to replace Reid one day will more then likely not have the resume that Reid has. But that doesn't make that person any less capable.
Or even a Mike McCarthy who ran the 31st ranked offense in SF before heading to GB.
There you have it. Only 2 coaches in Super Bowl history have taken longer than 7 years with their current team to win the big one. It is more likely that Andy will never win a Super Bowl with the Eagles than not. In fact he has a better shot at winning a title if he goes to another team than he does by staying with Philly. The Cowher example is the ONLY example of a coach of that tenure winning a Super Bowl in this modern NFL.
Not sure why you're picking 7 years as the cutoff, but playing by your rules he is 62-49-1 in the regular season, and has three playoff wins in that span.For the record, Andy has 10 playoff wins, which is more than every active coach other than Belichick.
You forgot Chad Hall! How could you forget Chad Hall!
I knew Lurie would give him one year out of loyalty alone. Doesn't mean we have to like it. I also understand keeping him one more year because we can drop Vick next year more comfortably than this year. So they are tied together regardless. If they fail next year, Andy and Vick will be gone (if Vick plays poorly). But as far as the track record goes, Andy was 7-5 in the playoffs from 1999-2004. He's 3-4 from 2005-2011. Last win came in the 2008 season when he won 2 as a road wild card. The track record speaks for itself. He's steadily declining.
5 out of the first 6 years with 11 wins or more. Only 1 in the last 7.
Reid is entering his 14th season so I just used the last half of his tenure as a point of referance. Even breaking his career down makes his second half look even worse.See and what you did with the wins is what Reid people love to do. While I appreciate the stats and playoff wins I believe adding just how long those other coaches have coached (and adding Super Bowl wins) tells a much better story, wouldnt you agree? The bottom half of that list have won that many playoff games and 3 of the 4 have a Super Bowl in just a fraction of the time Reid has had. Also, only 2 have not won a Super Bowl on that list and one could argue that could mainly be due to the fact they have coached inferior teams.Making the playoffs 9 of 13 years does not tell the story. 2 of the 3 playoff wins in the past 7 years were in the same season (2008)...that was the same season we needed a boat load of things to happen on the last day and even then we snuck in with a 9-6-1 record which is in no way impressive.As far as the last sentance goes we all know Vick is on pretty much of a one year deal anyway along with Reid. Obviously if that were a concern (getting rid of Vick, changing the offense etc) you would hire a coach with a background and an offense similar to the one Reid runs. If there's no one they like, than I'm OK with that. Like another poster pointed out above...our chances of changing coaches and winning a SB are greater then they are with having a HC that is 0-13 so far.
I choose 7 seasons because that's pre- and post-Super Bowl. 2000-2004 is irrelevant to the upcoming season. Andy got the team to the SB and lost. Now 7 years later, they have not gotten back to it. And regressed from the first 6 seasons. The Eagles were a different organization then. Now its Andy's team and they are not getting it done. They have regressed each of the last 3 season's alone. You say 10 playoff wins, that's nice. Only 3 have been in the last 7 years. How's that measure up to the rest of the league?Andy continues to live off his 2000-2004 success. If you look at what they've done since '05 its far less successful. We are not getting the 2004 Andy in 2012. Five of the last 7 seasons have resulted in no playoffs or a first round loss. Getting there is NOT the goal. The goal is to do something when you get there.
Oh snap! Got to bring him back so you have someone to hand the ball off to on 2nd and 16.
Let's break this down since you're indicating Andy's post-season win total is more impressive than this list. I looked at what each coach has done over the last 7 years or for the amount of time each has spent as a head coach, since 4 of the 8 listed have been coaching less than 7 years.I'll give you Shanny right off the bat. No question I'll take Andy. But the other 7:Coughlin since '05 - 4 wins, 1 Super Bowl Championship, 2011 yet to be determined. Advantage TC.Fisher since '05 - 2 wins, no champships. Advantage Reid.Fox since '05 - 2 wins, 2011 yet to be determined. Advantage most likely Reid.McCarthy since '06 - 5 wins, 1 Super Bowl Championship, 2011 yet to be determined. Advantage MM.Tomlin since '07 - 5 wins, 1 Super Bowl Championship, 1 SB loss, 2011 yet to be determined. Advantage MT.Harbaugh since '08 - 4 wins, 2011 yet to be determined. Advantage JH.Payton since '06 - 4 wins, 1 Super Bowl Championship, 2011 yet to be determined. Advantage SP.So out of your list, I'd say 5 (and 1 yet to be determined) have been more successful in the post-season than Andy since '05. And 4 of them in less years.Out of the 62 wins in 7 years (which is less than 9 per season btw)only 17 have come against teams with winning records. That's a Mike Missanelli stat fwiw.
And their last home playoff win was January 7, 2007. That's following the 2006 season; 5 NFL years since the last home playoff win.Something else occurred to me. The new generation of NFL fans, say ages 15-20, have never really known the Eagles to be an NFL powerhouse. To them, the Eagles have always been good, not great. 2004 seems so long ago.
I don't buy the heavy favorite against AZ in 2008. That was Vegas banking on people discounting the cardinals and favoring the history of the Eagles. AZ was at home and had just destroyed the Panthers in Carolina. There's no way they should have been an underdog by that amount. If anything it should have been a push.
It really does man. I was thinking back to when I was watching that Super Bowl. I was in the Poconos with my wife (then girlfriend) and her family. Her nieces and nephews were all little kids like 9-15 years old. They are all grown, driving and either in college or graduated by now. 7 years is a long time.
Yeah, I mean the Eagles offense only set a franchise record for yards gained. Turnovers really killed this team. Vick was horrible taking care of the ball.
I came in to post this stat. I think Baldy had mentioned it first, but it is very, very telling.I don't know which is more telling...only 27% of their wins in the last 7 years is against quality opponents, or we're somehow supposed to be impressed with a 9 win on average season. Neither jumps out at me as "elite" status.But hey, Andy was the bomb back in 2004.
I think the Spags love comes from him actually having a background as a DC who's been here and won a SB. Comparing that to our OL Coach turned DC and I'm all for it. Spags was here from 1999 until 2006. He was the defensive Assistant from 1999-2000, DB Coach from 2001-2003 and LB coach from 2004-2006. He's pretty much been apart of the best defenses we have had here. He also did well in NY.Agreed about Roseman.I don't know how others feel about Missanelli but I think he's OK. For the most part he's objective and feels the same about Reid as 90% of the fans do-- It's just time for a change.
I don't necessarily love Missanelli, he can be abboying at some times, but he reflects a lot of fans views in this city. Particularly with regards to Reid. Roseman ain't going anywhere, though I agree, its infuriating that a non-football guy is selecting football guys. I'm not waving the flag for Spags. I think it because a. wee need a legit DC, b. he's available and c. he has ties to Philly that people would welcome him. I'd like to see if Mike Zimmer in Cincy would be willing to come over as DC/HC-in-waiting.
To be fair, this stat is only meaningful if we have the same info for other teams in the league. In other words, how do the Eagles compare to the Pats, Packers, etc when they play teams with winning records.I don't know which is more telling...only 27% of their wins in the last 7 years is against quality opponents, or we're somehow supposed to be impressed with a 9 win on average season. Neither jumps out at me as "elite" status.But hey, Andy was the bomb back in 2004.
