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Eli Manning (2 Viewers)

thatguy

thatguy

Footballguy
I thought this would make for an interesting discussion. And it's about more than just Eli--I think this discussion brings into question the larger issue of what it is going to take for QB's in this passer friendly age to make the HOF. I think it's safe to say we'll see QB's from this age with stats that blow those of many current HOF QB's (guys like Elway) out of the water but don't sniff the Hall. Ultimately I think we can all agree that it comes down to one simple question: how did said player compare to his peers during his career? Was he considered elite during his time, and if so, for how long?

That said, let's take a look at Eli's resume thus far, and project what he is likely to add to it over the next 5 or so seasons.

Regular season numbers:

8 seasons

121 games

27579 passing yards

58.4% completion rate (this could hurt him, although is is hurt by his first 2 seasons--he has been above 60% for 4 seasons running)

7.0 YPA (but 7.9, 7.4, 8.4 the last 3 season's respectively)

185 TD's

129 INT's.

Eli is 31. Let's conservatively assume 5 more seasons at 4000 yards, 28 TD's, 16 INT's, and let's assume 61% completion rate and 8.0 YPA.

We'd be looking at 13 seasons

201 games

47579 yards

~60% completion rate

~ 7.4 YPA

325 TD's

209 INT's

Now, I'm being conservative with my 5 year window, and I also think being conservative with the 4000 yards and 28 TD's/season. So, let's up the numbers a tad, accounting for either more years, or better yearly rate stats. We'll keep his completion percentage and YPA the same

52,000 yards

350 TD's

225 INT's

Even now, I think, barring injury, those numbers are conservative. The question, then, is how will they stand up against his contemporaries. I think we can say for sure that Brees and Brady likely surpass those numbers. His brother basically already has surpassed them, but not by a ton... And I think we can all agree that if Peyton never plays another snap he's a surefire first ballof HOFer.

As for his other contemporaries. Rodgers is younger, but a ways behind Eli. Rivers is a little less than a season's worth of stats behind him in both TD's and yards. Big Ben is about 1000 yards and 20 TD's behind. Now, that said, both players have superior completion percentages (in the 63.5% range) and YPA (8.0), but as far as pure numbers, Eli is in the lead from that draft class.

In any case, with 5+ healthy and productive more seasons, Eli will have an extremely impressive regular season resume that is well in line with his contemporaries, some of which are are already considered surefire HOFers.

Now, let's take a look at his post-season resume:

He already has the 1 ring, and it came in one of the most memorable Super Bowl's of all time against the unbeatable 2008 Patriots. That win aside, after today's game, he is 6-3 in the postseason in his career with the following stats:

60.9& completions

1904 yards

14 TD's

8 INT's

~7.2 YPA

And this post-season is still going. IMO, if the Giants can win the Super Bowl this season, and Eli plays well, or even better, wins the Super Bowl MVP, and then finishes with regular season numbers comparable tot hose I posted, he has to be a lock for the HOF despite the fact that his rate stats aren't on par with the other elite QB's of his day.

What do you guys think?

 
'thatguy said:
Let's conservatively assume 5 more seasons at 4000 yards, 28 TD's, 16 INT's, and let's assume 61% completion rate and 8.0 YPA.
Click to expand...
That part is the sticky part. If you assume another 20,000 yards and 140 TD for Eli,one would assume you have to allocate that much (or better) for other QBs as well. So everyone else will have insane numbers too. As for your question, a lot will hinge on how the Giants do and if they win another title. A lot of guys playing now will have videogame numbers from this era.
 
I think what hurts him right now is that, until recently, he was never really considered one of the top 5-6 quarterbacks in the league - he was always in that 8-12 range, even in '07 when the Giants won the Super Bowl - but now that he is there, if he can stay there for the majority of the rest of his career AND win another Super Bowl, I think he'll make it. Being a Manning and playing in New York sure won't hurt his chances.

 
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'David Yudkin said:
'thatguy said:
Let's conservatively assume 5 more seasons at 4000 yards, 28 TD's, 16 INT's, and let's assume 61% completion rate and 8.0 YPA.
Click to expand...
That part is the sticky part. If you assume another 20,000 yards and 140 TD for Eli,one would assume you have to allocate that much (or better) for other QBs as well. So everyone else will have insane numbers too. As for your question, a lot will hinge on how the Giants do and if they win another title. A lot of guys playing now will have videogame numbers from this era.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I completely agree, which is kind of the other issue that I wanted to get into in this thread. What will it take for QB's from this era to get in? 40,000 yards, 300 TD's obviously isn't going to cut it anymore. What is going to be the new threshold, post-season success notwithstanding?
 
Eli ranks 14th among ACTIVE QBs in YPA, 10th in passing yds/gm, 29th in completion %, 26th in INT %, 9th in TD%, and 21st in passer rating. Multiple SBs will be his best chance of getting in.

 
28 TDs/year x 5 yrs is far from conservative.

He's hit 28 or more only 2 out of his 8 seasons. And you want him to AVERAGE it for 5 yrs? 25 would be optimistic considering you're likely seeing a decline, even small, at that 4-5 yr mark.

 
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'gianmarco said:
28 TDs/year x 5 yrs is far from conservative.He's hit 28 or more only 2 out of his 8 seasons. And you want him to AVERAGE it for 5 yrs? 25 would be optimistic considering you're likely seeing a decline, even small, at that 4-5 yr mark.
Click to expand...
Well, he's averaged 30/season over his past 2 seasons and 29/season over his past 3 seasons. The Giants have moved toward a more pass-oriented offense in that stretch, which is why I went with 28 and called it conservative. Perhaps it's not necessarily conservative, but I do think 5 years might be a bit conservative barring a serious injury. I could easily see 6 or 7 more seasons.ETA: With the further emergence of Nicks, Cruz, Manningham, Ballard, Barden et al., it wouldn't surprise me if he has a few 35-40 TD campaigns sprinkled in. So, in truth, I do think that, barring injury, averaging 28 TD's/season from his 32-36 year old seasons is somewhat conservative.
 
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If he got inducted into The Hall, would his bust have The Look of Bad Cheese on it, like the REAL Eli? It would be pretty unique among HoFers. I don't recall seeing Red Grange or Curly Lambeau with it. Ditto for Sam Huff and Chuck Bednarik.

 
As a matter of fact I spent a recent blog post exploring this very topic.

To sum up what I found - numbers aside, if Eli wins a 2nd Super Bowl history says he gets in. Only one QB in the modern era has more than one NFL title and isn't enshrined (Jim Plunkett).

 
I think he needs to either:

1. Maintain or improve his current level of play for at least 5 years. (This would take him to 36 years old).

or

2. Win another SB title and avoid a career ending injury in the near future.

 
'Popinski said:
I think he needs to either:1. Maintain or improve his current level of play for at least 5 years. (This would take him to 36 years old).or2. Win another SB title and avoid a career ending injury in the near future.
Click to expand...
Agree with this, and (obviously) that SB may come this year. If it doesnt though, they are a team built for the next 5 years though with really no impact players near retirement let alone over 30 (besides Eli).
 
As the stats continue to increase, an emphasis on titles will end up being a convenient tie-breaker-- and one probably won't be enough. Unless you own a large number of records (or really significant ones), it will come down to how many rings you have. For a guy like Eli, two would really make a difference and I think three would solidify him. Since he seems to come up big under playoff pressure at critical times, I can see one or two more in his future if things break right.

Success inflation will dictate needing multiple titles. Sad to say, I think we'll hear "he only won one championship" as a knock on some players. Eli will need at least one more to reach the Hall imo.

 
He's made the Pro Bowl twice in his career. Hall of Fame talk seems a bit premature.

 
'Kenny Powers said:
'David Yudkin said:
'Kenny Powers said:
'David Yudkin said:
'ZWK said:
He's made the Pro Bowl twice in his career. Hall of Fame talk seems a bit premature.
Click to expand...
So has Ben Roethlisberger.
Click to expand...
Ben's won 2 Super Bowls
Click to expand...
Wouldn't winning the SB make you more likely to be a Pro Bowler?
Click to expand...
Not really, the pro bowl is decided before the playoffs.
Click to expand...
I think his point is that a Super Bowl winning QB is far more likely to be voted to the Pro Bowl the season FOLLOWING his Super Bowl title. And it's a valid point to be sure.
 
'Neil Beaufort Zod said:
As the stats continue to increase, an emphasis on titles will end up being a convenient tie-breaker-- and one probably won't be enough. Unless you own a large number of records (or really significant ones), it will come down to how many rings you have. For a guy like Eli, two would really make a difference and I think three would solidify him. Since he seems to come up big under playoff pressure at critical times, I can see one or two more in his future if things break right.Success inflation will dictate needing multiple titles. Sad to say, I think we'll hear "he only won one championship" as a knock on some players. Eli will need at least one more to reach the Hall imo.
Click to expand...
Championships are almost incidental to greatness. Are you going to say that Ozzie Newsome would have been a greater player if he had won two Super Bowls? It wasn't his fault that the Browns never got over the hump.Shoot - Dan Fouts was the greatest QB to ever play the game, and he never got a title. Just didn't have the supporting cast.
 
'Kilgore said:
'Neil Beaufort Zod said:
As the stats continue to increase, an emphasis on titles will end up being a convenient tie-breaker-- and one probably won't be enough. Unless you own a large number of records (or really significant ones), it will come down to how many rings you have. For a guy like Eli, two would really make a difference and I think three would solidify him. Since he seems to come up big under playoff pressure at critical times, I can see one or two more in his future if things break right.Success inflation will dictate needing multiple titles. Sad to say, I think we'll hear "he only won one championship" as a knock on some players. Eli will need at least one more to reach the Hall imo.
Click to expand...
Championships are almost incidental to greatness. Are you going to say that Ozzie Newsome would have been a greater player if he had won two Super Bowls? It wasn't his fault that the Browns never got over the hump.Shoot - Dan Fouts was the greatest QB to ever play the game, and he never got a title. Just didn't have the supporting cast.
Click to expand...
I think the point is that in this era, with so many QB's putting up video game like career stats, what else will voters have to separate the good ones from the great ones by but Super Bowl titles? It's flawed and unfair to be sure, but titles will without a doubt play a huge factor in who gets in and who doesn't.
 
Furthermore, I think unless a QB is a Peyton Manning-like talent who has several years in a row as the unquestioned best QB (if not player) in the game, at least 1 Super Bowl will be an absolute must, and in most cases, 2 or more will be requisite.

 
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Put another way, prior to 1979, only 1 QB had ever thrown for 4,000 yards in a season. This year, there were 10 guys that did it. I also tend to think that assuming Eli can average 4,000 yards the next 5 years might be a bit aggressive rather than conservative, but the point still is that 4,000 yards passing is not what it used to be.

 
'thatguy said:
'Kenny Powers said:
'David Yudkin said:
'Kenny Powers said:
'David Yudkin said:
'ZWK said:
He's made the Pro Bowl twice in his career. Hall of Fame talk seems a bit premature.
Click to expand...
So has Ben Roethlisberger.
Click to expand...
Ben's won 2 Super Bowls
Click to expand...
Wouldn't winning the SB make you more likely to be a Pro Bowler?
Click to expand...
Not really, the pro bowl is decided before the playoffs.
Click to expand...
I think his point is that a Super Bowl winning QB is far more likely to be voted to the Pro Bowl the season FOLLOWING his Super Bowl title. And it's a valid point to be sure.
Click to expand...
So we vote on the pro bowl based on the prior season??? Im not stacking up numbers but I doubt that.
 
Eli Manning has led the NFL in interceptions twice. That hurts him greatly, imo. He has too many stinker games, which offset his good days.

 
'Kenny Powers said:
'thatguy said:
'Kenny Powers said:
'David Yudkin said:
'Kenny Powers said:
'David Yudkin said:
'ZWK said:
He's made the Pro Bowl twice in his career. Hall of Fame talk seems a bit premature.
Click to expand...
So has Ben Roethlisberger.
Click to expand...
Ben's won 2 Super Bowls
Click to expand...
Wouldn't winning the SB make you more likely to be a Pro Bowler?
Click to expand...
Not really, the pro bowl is decided before the playoffs.
Click to expand...
I think his point is that a Super Bowl winning QB is far more likely to be voted to the Pro Bowl the season FOLLOWING his Super Bowl title. And it's a valid point to be sure.
Click to expand...
So we vote on the pro bowl based on the prior season??? Im not stacking up numbers but I doubt that.
Click to expand...
Pro Bowl voting is largely a popularity contest. Winning Super Bowls increases a QB's visibility and thus his popularity. Yes, I think what happened in the previous season affects voting the following season.
 
'Fensalk said:
Eli Manning has led the NFL in interceptions twice. That hurts him greatly, imo. He has too many stinker games, which offset his good days.
Click to expand...
He may have a lot of stinkers, but he sure seems to have a lot of his good days in the biggest spots, and that is something that can't be overlooked.
 
'thatguy said:
'Kilgore said:
'Neil Beaufort Zod said:
As the stats continue to increase, an emphasis on titles will end up being a convenient tie-breaker-- and one probably won't be enough. Unless you own a large number of records (or really significant ones), it will come down to how many rings you have. For a guy like Eli, two would really make a difference and I think three would solidify him. Since he seems to come up big under playoff pressure at critical times, I can see one or two more in his future if things break right.Success inflation will dictate needing multiple titles. Sad to say, I think we'll hear "he only won one championship" as a knock on some players. Eli will need at least one more to reach the Hall imo.
Click to expand...
Championships are almost incidental to greatness. Are you going to say that Ozzie Newsome would have been a greater player if he had won two Super Bowls? It wasn't his fault that the Browns never got over the hump.Shoot - Dan Fouts was the greatest QB to ever play the game, and he never got a title. Just didn't have the supporting cast.
Click to expand...
I think the point is that in this era, with so many QB's putting up video game like career stats, what else will voters have to separate the good ones from the great ones by but Super Bowl titles? It's flawed and unfair to be sure, but titles will without a doubt play a huge factor in who gets in and who doesn't.
Click to expand...
Well, to this point in the thread, people have mostly mentioned statistics and postseason success, but there is another major category that supports comparing to peers: honors/awards. How will he compare to other QBs of his generation in terms of All Pro selections, Pro Bowls, MVP awards, etc.? So far, he doesn't compare favorably.All that said, I think it's too early to tell. He has definitely put himself in position to make it, but he needs to continue playing well for several more seasons and either needs to start racking up honors and awards or needs another ring or both.
 
For Eli it will all come down to rings. If he gets another one this year, the conversation gets much more interesting.

Assuming though the Giants magical run ends in the next two games? He's not on a Hall of Fame trajectory. His raw statistics and won/loss record aren't good enough in an era defined by obscene passing numbers. But another ring (or two) and a lot of those sins are likely to be forgiven by voters.

 
'thatguy said:
'Kenny Powers said:
'thatguy said:
'Kenny Powers said:
'David Yudkin said:
'Kenny Powers said:
'David Yudkin said:
'ZWK said:
He's made the Pro Bowl twice in his career. Hall of Fame talk seems a bit premature.
Click to expand...
So has Ben Roethlisberger.
Click to expand...
Ben's won 2 Super Bowls
Click to expand...
Wouldn't winning the SB make you more likely to be a Pro Bowler?
Click to expand...
Not really, the pro bowl is decided before the playoffs.
Click to expand...
I think his point is that a Super Bowl winning QB is far more likely to be voted to the Pro Bowl the season FOLLOWING his Super Bowl title. And it's a valid point to be sure.
Click to expand...
So we vote on the pro bowl based on the prior season??? Im not stacking up numbers but I doubt that.
Click to expand...
Pro Bowl voting is largely a popularity contest. Winning Super Bowls increases a QB's visibility and thus his popularity. Yes, I think what happened in the previous season affects voting the following season.
Click to expand...
Ben's always had to battle for one Pro Bowl spot. Peyton and Brady had 2. And Ben's first couple seasons, the Steelers were a run-first team.
 
'Jason Wood said:
For Eli it will all come down to rings. If he gets another one this year, the conversation gets much more interesting.Assuming though the Giants magical run ends in the next two games? He's not on a Hall of Fame trajectory. His raw statistics and won/loss record aren't good enough in an era defined by obscene passing numbers. But another ring (or two) and a lot of those sins are likely to be forgiven by voters.
Click to expand...
IMOIf he gets a 2nd ring he is a shoe in.Had Simms beat Buffalo in 1990 he would be in, imo
 
'Ghost Rider said:
I think what hurts him right now is that, until recently, he was never really considered one of the top 5-6 quarterbacks in the league - he was always in that 8-12 range, even in '07 when the Giants won the Super Bowl - but now that he is there, if he can stay there for the majority of the rest of his career AND win another Super Bowl, I think he'll make it. Being a Manning and playing in New York sure won't hurt his chances.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
 
I was going to start a thread on Eli vs Peyton, if Eli won a super bowl this year.

It would be an interesting discussion.

 
Anyone that thinks Eli > Peyton has either never played football or doesn't truly understand that it's a TEAM sport.

:wall:

 
'kodycutter said:
'Fensalk said:
Eli Manning has led the NFL in interceptions twice. That hurts him greatly, imo. He has too many stinker games, which offset his good days.
Click to expand...
Favre has led the NFL in interceptions three times. :P
Click to expand...
Favre pretty much played in a different era at this point. He led in TD passes 4x, yards 2x, a whole bunch of other records he set, 44 TDs to 30 INTs in the playoffs. He's done an awful lot to counterbalance that. His numbers aren't as impressive today where QBs are putting up 5000 yards, but when he played his stats were godlike.Eli isn't doing any of those things.
 
He's no Phillip Rivers ( :rolleyes: ) , but he's a pretty good QB.

"Eli is at his best when the game is at it's worst."

-Mike Francesa

If he can get a 2nd ring, it would be tough to keep him out.

 
'thatguy said:
'Kilgore said:
'Neil Beaufort Zod said:
As the stats continue to increase, an emphasis on titles will end up being a convenient tie-breaker-- and one probably won't be enough. Unless you own a large number of records (or really significant ones), it will come down to how many rings you have. For a guy like Eli, two would really make a difference and I think three would solidify him. Since he seems to come up big under playoff pressure at critical times, I can see one or two more in his future if things break right.Success inflation will dictate needing multiple titles. Sad to say, I think we'll hear "he only won one championship" as a knock on some players. Eli will need at least one more to reach the Hall imo.
Click to expand...
Championships are almost incidental to greatness. Are you going to say that Ozzie Newsome would have been a greater player if he had won two Super Bowls? It wasn't his fault that the Browns never got over the hump.Shoot - Dan Fouts was the greatest QB to ever play the game, and he never got a title. Just didn't have the supporting cast.
Click to expand...
I think the point is that in this era, with so many QB's putting up video game like career stats, what else will voters have to separate the good ones from the great ones by but Super Bowl titles? It's flawed and unfair to be sure, but titles will without a doubt play a huge factor in who gets in and who doesn't.
Click to expand...
Yes, that's pretty much it. It's an imperfect tie-breaker (I'm a Fouts fan myself) but "what he did" will start to look less impressive as stats keep trending upward. "Great for his era" sounds like a back-handed compliment, and won't carry the weight it deserves.
 
I think what's happening now has been happening for awhile now. QBs play longer and stats get inflated. Vinny Testaverde, Drew Bledsoe, and Kerry Collins all rank in the Top 10 all time in passing yards (well, at least for one more week until Brees passes Collins). Does anyone consider any of those three one of the Top 10 QBs of all time?

 
'David Yudkin said:
I think what's happening now has been happening for awhile now. QBs play longer and stats get inflated. Vinny Testaverde, Drew Bledsoe, and Kerry Collins all rank in the Top 10 all time in passing yards (well, at least for one more week until Brees passes Collins). Does anyone consider any of those three one of the Top 10 QBs of all time?
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
 
'Jason Wood said:
Anyone that thinks Eli > Peyton has either never played football or doesn't truly understand that it's a TEAM sport. :wall:
Click to expand...
Strange that of all the arguments you could possibly make for Peyton over Eli (and they are certainly many), that you would pick the TEAM angle. Peyton is probably the NFL's all time greatest exhibit of individual accolades that resulted in very little in the way of team greatness. He's the Wilt Chamberlain of pro football. A decade and a half of video game stats, numerous high-impact big game meltdowns, and one title that he was carried to...by his TEAM. Eli has already been more instrumental in a title run than Peyton ever was in his highly lauded career. If the G-men win this year, the case for Eli > Peyton as a TEAM QB becomes a virtual slam dunk.
 
'Zeff said:
'Jason Wood said:
Anyone that thinks Eli > Peyton has either never played football or doesn't truly understand that it's a TEAM sport. :wall:
Click to expand...
Strange that of all the arguments you could possibly make for Peyton over Eli (and they are certainly many), that you would pick the TEAM angle. Peyton is probably the NFL's all time greatest exhibit of individual accolades that resulted in very little in the way of team greatness. He's the Wilt Chamberlain of pro football. A decade and a half of video game stats, numerous high-impact big game meltdowns, and one title that he was carried to...by his TEAM. Eli has already been more instrumental in a title run than Peyton ever was in his highly lauded career. If the G-men win this year, the case for Eli > Peyton as a TEAM QB becomes a virtual slam dunk.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
 
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