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Couch Potato

Couch Potato 2012 Dynasty Rankings

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Congrats Bruce! I really like your rankings. Two questions...Ever consider adding IDP? :)Anyway to add a link to download the rankings into an excel? I really enjoy adding my own notes predraft in a spreadsheet along with my favorite rankings and this is a ton of copy and paste haha

Answer #1 -- your grandma knows more about IDP than I do. My motivation to get up to speed or be involved in IDP leagues has always been zero. Sorry! Answer #2 -- once these rankings go online at the main site the copy paste will be easy. I'm guessing that'll happen within a week or two. Will that be enough? Somewhere in this thread I explained that the spreadsheet I use feed from other spreadsheets, and to post the rankings here I have to do a few manual manipulations to prepare for posting. What you'd see sitting in my chair looks very different from what you see looking at the rankings in this thread. I've already ditched the post-manipulation spreadsheets (one per position) I used for posting, and I'm hesitant to open a can of worms recreating it and sending guys stuff one by one. But let me think about this and if the rankings I put on the site don't suffice, PM me.
You're the man I appreciate it! I never meant for you to mail it out to every joe schmo who asks for it I didn't know if there was a way to host a copy on FBG that updates when you do the rankings that can be downloaded once you get your fancy new staff powers. You do more than enough already so if it's a PITA request don't worry about it.

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That's awesome news Bruce and very well deserved. Congrats!

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Hey gang, I'll try to get to some of the comments / questions tonight (geez RedZone, couldn't think of any more Q's? LOL), I'm home briefly for lunch then gone again.Just popping in to let you all know that I agreed to join the footballguys staff today, and at some point the requisite name change will take place on this board. They like staff to use their real names. I don't know if that'll happen today or not, but when you see a bunch of posts from Bruce Hammond instead of Couch Potato, that's still me.The good news is my dynasty rankings will be up on the main site along with the other staff, and it'll be easier to view in that compact format than having to scroll down so much like you have to do here. When I get them up over there I'll post here to let you know and give the link for those who don't already have it. Joe has asked that I keep my rankings updated at least once a month, but I already committed to have them updated in this thread twice a month so I will try to stick with that. I think we can keep this thread going for discussion, and at least until the rankings become part of the pay subscription umbrella later this Summer I'm guessing I will be able to keep the original post here updated with the rankings, notes, etc.Now that I've been assimilated by the Borg, please don't abuse me too much, OK? :scared:

I thought you owned Joe and Dave already? What happened? :lmao: The abuse will be relentless if I can remember! :pics:

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Re newly traded Mike Goodson (to OAK), I'd still keep him ranked about the same, in the longshot category.

New note added in OP:

Trade doesn't really change much of anything, except maybe give him a bit more 2012 value competing with Taiwan Jones as McFadden's backup. He's still a free agent after 2012 and his value will depend on where he goes and what opportunity it represents. Had some good production in 2010 both as runner and receiver when given a chance and could find fantasy value in new digs if things break right. He's a fumbler though, so that hurts his chances of getting a significant role.

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Re newly traded Mike Goodson (to OAK), I'd still keep him ranked about the same, in the longshot category.New note added in OP:Trade doesn't really change much of anything, except maybe give him a bit more 2012 value competing with Taiwan Jones as McFadden's backup. He's still a free agent after 2012 and his value will depend on where he goes and what opportunity it represents. Had some good production in 2010 both as runner and receiver when given a chance and could find fantasy value in new digs if things break right. He's a fumbler though, so that hurts his chances of getting a significant role.

In my Keeper 12 "dynasty" league where I own DMC, I scooped him up and dumped Dwyer.I'd guess his greatest value, to anyone in a shallow dynasty league like mine, is as a handcuff to DMC.

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Hey gang, I'll try to get to some of the comments / questions tonight (geez RedZone, couldn't think of any more Q's? LOL), I'm home briefly for lunch then gone again.Just popping in to let you all know that I agreed to join the footballguys staff today, and at some point the requisite name change will take place on this board. They like staff to use their real names. I don't know if that'll happen today or not, but when you see a bunch of posts from Bruce Hammond instead of Couch Potato, that's still me.The good news is my dynasty rankings will be up on the main site along with the other staff, and it'll be easier to view in that compact format than having to scroll down so much like you have to do here. When I get them up over there I'll post here to let you know and give the link for those who don't already have it. Joe has asked that I keep my rankings updated at least once a month, but I already committed to have them updated in this thread twice a month so I will try to stick with that. I think we can keep this thread going for discussion, and at least until the rankings become part of the pay subscription umbrella later this Summer I'm guessing I will be able to keep the original post here updated with the rankings, notes, etc.Now that I've been assimilated by the Borg, please don't abuse me too much, OK? :scared:

Congrats man, well deserved. with you updating twice a month, thats twice more than footballguys staffers do now!!! I hope you can turn things around here.

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FCP, we agree on most things; However, I think you have Antonio Brown criminally under rated. He will be a top 25 WR easily. My guess is in the 15-20 range. On a similar note, Mike Wallace is over rated. I think DHB and Desean Jackson will outperform a number of players ahead of them as well. Jackson in a joke of a year (worst case scenario) ended up right where you have him and DHB was top 30 with a string of weird games as well. Are you docking them that much for the knucklehead factor of Jackson and possibly DHB?

Sorry it's taken so long One Time. The last couple of days have been busy replying to people here and trying to get some real life work done to wrap up the week.

Hey, this is my first shark pool post not using the Couch Potato account. I think I'm going to miss being CP. Anyway, onward...

Lets start with Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. Wallace I'm very satisfied having in my top 10, and currently at #7. He finished each of the last two years at #9 (and two guys he finished behind, Roddy and Welker, I definitely want to have lower for dynasty), he's entering his prime (26 next August), his role isn't changing. Maybe you're discounting him some because he didn't finish strong in 2011, but I'm not making knee jerk moves in rankings due to temporary ups and downs in production without cause. Bottom line is I see Wallace as a rock solid top 10 guy, and players I have ranked just below him like Britt (injuries / immaturities), Dez (production to date / work ethic / immaturities), Harvin (workload / migraines) probably have more downside.

Antonio Brown I think I do need to bump up. When I do rankings next I'm likely to move him up to 27-28, around there. Not top 15-20 as you suggest. When I ranked him at 35, my thinking was that he was only about WR60 after 6 games, and really began to take off consistently after E Sanders got hurt and was in and out of the lineup most of the second half of the year. With Sanders back healthy in 2012, the thinking went, some of that production for Brown would disappear, and I ranked him WR35. That still may be the case. But when I got down to the research for ranking Sanders later on, I became less sure of Sanders doing that. I ended up with Sanders at WR66 rather than higher as my initial idea was to be, but never went back and adjusted Brown upward. I think Sanders is fine in the 60s and that I do need to move Brown up. So, thanks for the heads up on him.

DeSean Jackson... OK, let's start by saying I'm fine with where I have him, at WR27. Though he's at the bottom of it, he's still in Tier 3 - Very strong producers and younger players with bigtime upside . We could quibble where in that group he belongs but I do discount him because he's a tool. Sorry, any guy who sulks and quits on his team during the season because of his contract is a tool. I can't just pretend it never happened, because to me it's an indicator of future immaturity issues that may affect performance. There's a trust factor that's been damaged, and although he signed a new contract, I don't think the Eagles or other teams around the league ignored what happened. Beyond that, he's a bit of a one trick pony, all or nothing WR. Because he's a deep and sideline receiver and a coward over the middle, his production will be up and down more than most WRs. That inconsistency will help you lose fantasy games when things don't click and he gets one catch for 16 yards when you need at least a decent day. So, for that reason I move him down a few notches vs. more consistent week to week producers.

DHB, or Hey-Bey as I like to call him... I have him at WR40 in Tier 4 - Good producers with question marks and promising youngsters. While he did finally in his 3rd year have some very promising games, I just don't see him as a big producer for the Raiders over the long haul. He's going to be a supplemental guy I think, and if Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford and McFadden and a decent TE can ever stay healthy and on the field, Hey-Bey will I think produce at around that WR40 level, good enough to help you some weeks and totally disappearing others. He needs to prove me wrong when those other guys are playing, because what I saw of him for his first two years was pretty sad. I need to see more to trust him.

Hope that helps. Of course, everyone looking at these rankings will disagree on a lot of players. It's all educated guessing and we all have our own perspectives. If the future was easily predictable it wouldn't be much fun!

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Hey CP, great stuff. I would love to see your mock of a dynasty startup. That would really add depth to these rankings and enrich your overall content.

Thanks again

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no love for Mossis Madu or Curtis Brinkley? not even listed while both backs showed flashes last week for different reasons.

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Hey CP, you may have mentioned this, but you know I am way to lazy to read every word in the topic. A related question was asked earlier up the thread, but I figured I would get your viewpoint.In looking at a keeper league format, rather than dynasty (say a 3 keeper league, as opposed to draft and hold an entire roster +/- trading), can your rankings be used to determine value in drafting or keeping a player? Is Brady a keeper, though his dynasty ranking is lower? Of course, since keeper leagues vary year to year of course. But for younger players, the keeper value can be retained over the course of his career.

Hiya RedZone, apologies for the delay. Trying to catch up on a lot after a busy last few days. I too am in a keeper league (and a re-draft league) in addition to my dynasty ones. I like having them as change of pace, keeping me thinking in different ways. So, I'm not unfamiliar with the ways in which strategies for keeper leagues are different.Because rules vary, answering the Brady question is tough. If you want to email me outside this thread with keeper length parameters I could give you a decent answer. To answer the general question though, I wouldn't use these rankings for players (except maybe RBs) at either extreme of their career curves. Since the keeper contract period of a player you draft may be only 2-3 years, this list would be undervaluing guys like Brady, P Manning, Gates, etc. and overvaluing guys like Luck who may be pretty unspectacular for the first couple years. And since you're only keeping 3 in your league's case, once you get past the studs you're essentially in redraft mode, making a lot of the older guys I've discounted here perfectly fine for you to draft higher in your league.

Also, as was inferred above, does the long-term dynasty value of a player need to be tempered with current year needs? Andrew Luck may be a high value dynasty pick, but the complete deconstruction of the Colts offense, basically, makes this an iffy year. So would Bradford be a better pickup than Luck?

Yes, I think you are right on point there. Guys in dynasty are often guilty of overvaluing youth, and in keeper it's a real mistake. QBs and good WRs make their biggest jump between years 1 and 2, but don't really hit their stride until years 3-4. If you have to throw them back into the draft in a keeper league before they are fully useful in a lineup, and you draft too young year after year, you are just churning. In keeper you're wanting to own your stud guys while in their prime. Regarding Bradford specifically, I'll let you make that call. You're a homer and have your own good opinion on him and what the Rams are trying to do. Rookie year was solid, 2nd was ugh, third you decide! Personally, I like him, esp if they draft Blackmon.

What about your thoughts on trade value? Does a league accept a Luck for Matt Ryan trade? The league (NFL) has been hard to figure the last couple of seasons. Loss of feature back offenses, emergence of TE, rules impeding defense aggressiveness increasing the passing game value, kick off changes, etc. This season, seems like more free agency moves than I anticipated, and some that have not yet happened (Jacoby Jones for example). Do you have any way of anticipating future trade chances? I think it is amazing that Steven Jackson (or is it Stephen? can't remember) has remained at St Louis. Think what he could have done behind a solid line during his peak years.

I'm a bit confused here, it started out like you were asking whether a keeper league would be OK with or veto a Luck / Ryan trade, then you went to NFL trade stuff I think. But here goes... I can't imagine a keeper league getting bent out of shape over either side of a Luck / Ryan deal. On the Luck side, he's been called by draft experts the best prospect to arrive since Peyton. Loads of upside. BUT... without a lot of weapons right now. On the Ryan side, he's got Roddy and Julio and Gonzo (for one more year), and was putting up good numbers the second half of the season. Pretty hard to say anyone owning Ryan the next few years made a big mistake.NFL free agency this year... answer to that is easy. The lockout and scramble thereafter resulted in an aberrational number of one-year signings. The fallout of that came this year, with more than usual expirng contracts thus more free agency.Jacoby Jones... not a free agent, Kubiak continues to support him publicly, probably will stick since they don't have a lot of proven talent besides AJ and they did nothing in FA. They'll address their future #2 in this draft I think, and they have a couple no-names who could turn out pretty good in Jeff Maehl and Lestar Jean. Jac Jones could be off the roster after 2012, but I think he's safe this year.Future NFL trade chances... pretty futile trying to predict such things. Who saw the Brandon Marshall deal coming? I think the only real predictable trade possibilities come in three categories:1) Guys whose contracts are expiring a year out and they'll be FAs -- makes sense to get value if you don't think you will be able to or don't want to re-sign the guy a year from now, and he's not essential to you this year. This is why J Stewart speculation began. In his case however it appears his current year value is important enough they'll not deal him (still TBD despite protestations of management).2) Guys who are negatively affecting team chemistry or team image / philosophy with either brushes with the law or with their yapping pie holes. Broncos, then Miami, had had enough of Marshall. Same with Santonio Holmes in Pittsburgh when they moved him on to the Jets.3) Players (usually QBs) blocked from starting with their current teams. Kolb and Schaub are recent examples, Mallett a possible future example. Possibly RB Tate HOU at some point. Older players are more likely to get released than traded. Contracts are large, shelf life small, and teams just aren't willing to give anything for them. They know the player is likely to be released anyway. Oh, unless it's the Redskins. Hellooooo McNabb for a 2nd and a 4th. Disaster.

Also, many players are dependent upon the support cast. For example, Peerless Price - was a great WR2 but lousy WR1 when traded. Hines Ward was a great downfield blocker, does his retirement reduce YAC for other receivers?

I used to have an acronym I used to define value... trying to remember... TOSS or something like that (I might be leaving out an element/letter). Talent, Opportunity, System, Surrounding talent. The over-riding key is always talent, with the rule of thumb being the greater the talent the less the other factors matter, and the less the talent the more the others matter. Peerless Price never was an elite talent but had big stats one year due to circumstances, and was exposed going from ATL to BUF for what he really was. Someone like Fitz though is an elite talent, able to transcend to a large degree the shortcomings elsewhere, and P Manning has been able to make average WRs look better than they are.

How do you translate your positional rankings to overall? Could be an interesting way to value trades like they do for draft picks in the NFL.

That's tricky, and as staff I'll have to post overall rankings. To do that you have to start with some league size, lineup requirement, and PPR vs non-PPR assumptions, and there is no standard in this hobby. A non-PPR league that has 14 teams and starts a required 2 RBs and can also flex another 1 or 2 (like the MOX leagues I'm in) requires a much higher emphasis on RBs than a 12 team PPR league only requiring one RB to start (my HyperActive leagues). When I do my main site overall rankings I'm required to assume PPR -- that's the FBG standard the rankings are now going to adhere to -- and I'll assume 12 teams and start 2 RB. You guys will have to mentally adjust for your own needs.

Do you look at conference or division strength of schedule?

No. I know some do, and it's a big part of evaluation for them, but to me it's primarily a redraft issue. Things change so fast on both sides of the ball that getting mired in so much of that kind of thing for dynasty just diverts focus from the three things that really matter most -- talent, talent (yes I said it twice on purpose), and future opportunity.

Is there a Magic 8 ball on your desk for when you are uncertain?

No, mine is made of crystal. And it always follows up each answer by saying "you have about a 50% chance (if you're lucky) that I'm telling you the truth."

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FCP, we agree on most things; However, I think you have Antonio Brown criminally under rated. He will be a top 25 WR easily. My guess is in the 15-20 range. On a similar note, Mike Wallace is over rated. I think DHB and Desean Jackson will outperform a number of players ahead of them as well. Jackson in a joke of a year (worst case scenario) ended up right where you have him and DHB was top 30 with a string of weird games as well. Are you docking them that much for the knucklehead factor of Jackson and possibly DHB?

Sorry it's taken so long One Time. The last couple of days have been busy replying to people here and trying to get some real life work done to wrap up the week.

Hey, this is my first shark pool post not using the Couch Potato account. I think I'm going to miss being CP. Anyway, onward...

Lets start with Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. Wallace I'm very satisfied having in my top 10, and currently at #7. He finished each of the last two years at #9 (and two guys he finished behind, Roddy and Welker, I definitely want to have lower for dynasty), he's entering his prime (26 next August), his role isn't changing. Maybe you're discounting him some because he didn't finish strong in 2011, but I'm not making knee jerk moves in rankings due to temporary ups and downs in production without cause. Bottom line is I see Wallace as a rock solid top 10 guy, and players I have ranked just below him like Britt (injuries / immaturities), Dez (production to date / work ethic / immaturities), Harvin (workload / migraines) probably have more downside.

Antonio Brown I think I do need to bump up. When I do rankings next I'm likely to move him up to 27-28, around there. Not top 15-20 as you suggest. When I ranked him at 35, my thinking was that he was only about WR60 after 6 games, and really began to take off consistently after E Sanders got hurt and was in and out of the lineup most of the second half of the year. With Sanders back healthy in 2012, the thinking went, some of that production for Brown would disappear, and I ranked him WR35. That still may be the case. But when I got down to the research for ranking Sanders later on, I became less sure of Sanders doing that. I ended up with Sanders at WR66 rather than higher as my initial idea was to be, but never went back and adjusted Brown upward. I think Sanders is fine in the 60s and that I do need to move Brown up. So, thanks for the heads up on him.

DeSean Jackson... OK, let's start by saying I'm fine with where I have him, at WR27. Though he's at the bottom of it, he's still in Tier 3 - Very strong producers and younger players with bigtime upside . We could quibble where in that group he belongs but I do discount him because he's a tool. Sorry, any guy who sulks and quits on his team during the season because of his contract is a tool. I can't just pretend it never happened, because to me it's an indicator of future immaturity issues that may affect performance. There's a trust factor that's been damaged, and although he signed a new contract, I don't think the Eagles or other teams around the league ignored what happened. Beyond that, he's a bit of a one trick pony, all or nothing WR. Because he's a deep and sideline receiver and a coward over the middle, his production will be up and down more than most WRs. That inconsistency will help you lose fantasy games when things don't click and he gets one catch for 16 yards when you need at least a decent day. So, for that reason I move him down a few notches vs. more consistent week to week producers.

DHB, or Hey-Bey as I like to call him... I have him at WR40 in Tier 4 - Good producers with question marks and promising youngsters. While he did finally in his 3rd year have some very promising games, I just don't see him as a big producer for the Raiders over the long haul. He's going to be a supplemental guy I think, and if Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford and McFadden and a decent TE can ever stay healthy and on the field, Hey-Bey will I think produce at around that WR40 level, good enough to help you some weeks and totally disappearing others. He needs to prove me wrong when those other guys are playing, because what I saw of him for his first two years was pretty sad. I need to see more to trust him.

Hope that helps. Of course, everyone looking at these rankings will disagree on a lot of players. It's all educated guessing and we all have our own perspectives. If the future was easily predictable it wouldn't be much fun!

Im honored that your first post is one replying to me :)

I have been HORRIBLE at judging RBS (trading Fitz(rookie pick)+Stephen Jackson(rookie pick) + more for Ricky Williams a week before his yearlong suspension, going all in on kevin jones in 2 leagues, and many bad bad examples).

However, I have always had a good gut when it comes to WRs/TEs. (Brandon Marshall(Rookie), Jimmy Graham(rookie), Eddie Royal(rookie) then trying to sell him off after 1 year; trading Randy Moss+ a year before the fell of a cliff for Roddy White and Desean Jackson; trading Roddy last year in the opening weeks for Antonio Brown and a few 1st round Rookie picks, etc etc) I mention these specific transactions since they're all in the one league I am in with you that I could think of off the top of my head :P

Having said that, this is where I quibble:

As far as Wallace I see him falling back to the 10-15 rank WR spot next year if not a tiny bit lower. The only two people I have JUST ahead of him value wise are Dez and Britt. I don't know WHO will jump him, I just am not super impressed watching him. If I had Wallace on my team, I would be looking to trade him with something to get a better WR(not Dez or Britt). There is a HUGE dropoff in the tier that he is headlining. Like I said, I rank off my gut, but in terms of talent/opportunity, I just see slightly disappointed owners this year.

You mentioned the biggest reason for Wallaces drop off...Antonio Brown. Antonio Brown may not have Elite WR measurables. He reminds me of a younger, better Donald driver in that he is not very flashy, but works hard, is under-rated, and produces because of his determination. Wallace is a much more flashy WR. Emmanuel Sanders has talent, but not near Brown or Wallace. He will slightly over perform his ranking that I have glanced at so far.

Emmanuel Sanders was playing the first 8 weeks, then missed 6 games the rest of the season. Brown busted out starting week 7, when Emmanuel Sanders was still playing. The thing was that I was watching some early Steeler games and Brown was impressive those first 6 weeks, he just didn't have the accumulation of the stats. Looking at those first 6 weeks, these were his targets: 9, 6, 8, 10, 4, 2. The writing was on the wall that he was going to bust out. He found a bit of a groove week 7. Week 9, Sanders goes out 3ish games and it created a bigger opportunity. It was obvious down the stretch that Roeth was looking to Brown in sticky situations. You had mentioned that Brown benefited from Sanders going out, however, at the same time Wallace was producing worse and worse even with Sanders out. Wallace was AMAZING the first 6 games. However, from week 7 on, these were their stats:

Mike Wallace: 10 Games Played, 39 Receptions, 581 yards, 4 TDs, 70 targets, 1 fumble lost----Ranked 23 WR in our league.

Antonio Brown: 10 games Played, 51 Receptions, 846 yards, 2 TDs, 85 targets, 0 fumbles lost---Ranked 12 WR in our league.

I'm willing to give Brown, just starting his 2nd year in which there was a shortened off-season, an excuse for not busting right onto the scene. But the kid has it all. This year will be a 1a/1b situation. While Wallace is more likely the 1a, I could see Brown winding up with better stats and it wouldn't surprise me one bit. Having Moore, Hill, Randle, Holmes, Steve Smith, Garcon, Decker, Torrey Smith, Meacham, and Crabtree ahead of Brown I think is a mistake.

I talked too much about this, but a lot of guys in leagues will be looking back to the beginning of the year wondering how they did not see the writing on the wall.

As far as the other things I mentioned, I won't harp too much on it.

Jackson was a top 10 dynasty talent (yes with a 10 cent head) just last year. That is my biggest fear. However, if Jackson starts out the season strong, TRADE FOR HIM. Maclin is a very good WR which will hinder his numbers a bit. But Jackson's talent cannot be denied. He is electric and can take any catch for a touchdown. For the time being, I would rank him for sure above Sidney Rice(never been a big fan), Brandon Lloyd(older), Colston(Won't touch that knee), Kendall Wright, and Stevie Johnson(10 cent head who just got paid and has less talent than Jackson). If he starts strong, I would value him more than about another 4-5 people.

DHB is the riskiest, yet cheapest to get of the guys I mentioned. I'll start out by saying I would likely take him over Cobb(too many good, young WRs), Young, Robinson(Lets not forget why and where he was last year), Moore(He has potential, but I like DHBs more), Stephen Hill, Reuben Randle, Holmes, Steve Smith (depends on if you have a playoff team), and Garcon)

DHB looked light years better this year than when he was a rookie. He has been working hard. He is surrounded by Palmer and a bunch of WRs with "potential". DHB was a top talent WR that was chosen a tad too high in the draft. Everyone KNEW he would take a few years to develop. Well guess what...a few years is here. It wasn't quick or easy, but DHB is showing glimpses and results that made him the first WR of the board a few years ago. He is my lottery ticket. You have him ranked right around 40. I would think, as long as he stays healthy, that is his floor. While I can imagine him ending next year ranked in the 30s, I also think he has a chance in a couple year to be a top 10-15 WR. I know people will scoff at that, but that is what is great about this sport. In a few years I could be very wrong. Or in a few years people may bump this post wondering why they didn't read it earlier, and why they didn't see the writing on the wall about Jackson, Brown, and DHB.

:popcorn:

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no love for Mossis Madu or Curtis Brinkley? not even listed while both backs showed flashes last week for different reasons.

Nope.Madu did little at Oklahoma (219 career carries, 59 carries in SR year for a 4.3 ypc), is AT BEST a CoP back during what I think will be a short NFL career. Tampa is expected to upgrade the RB position, if not with Richardson, with one of the next couple backs in the 2nd round. Blount will remain. Probably also add a FA still like Hightower or another of the availables. Madu got on the field (15 rushes and 10 catches) the last 5 weeks of the season because Graham was hurt and Blount was entering the doghouse and the team was falling behind by 20 points by half time every week. I see him as strictly a depth guy and always be iffy to make a roster. No dynasty upside here.Brinkley will be nearly 27 when the season starts, IMO beyond the window of opportunity for a surprise Tier 8 possible breakout player and not on the level of the Tier 7 guys. There's no chance to be a breakout player with Mathews there. I list 999 category guys that I think are possibly fantasy rosterable, and I don't see that with him. He's JAG (just a guy). Three NFL seasons, only 2 career carries until last year. Got almost all of his 30 carrier in 2011 in two games, one when Tolbert was out and the other in meaningless Week 17 when Mathews didn't play. They've brought in McClain (I realize he's RB/FB hybrid, but J Hester will prob be re-signed as FB) and he'll bypass Brinkley and per GM Smith they are still looking to add RB in FA or draft. I don't see Brinkley ever having a meaningful role. JAG.

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Hey CP, great stuff. I would love to see your mock of a dynasty startup. That would really add depth to these rankings and enrich your overall content.Thanks again

That could be interesting. Not soon though, and no promises. I have other FF items on the agenda for this thread I want to tackle, a dynasty start up draft in May (or two if FBG staff does one), and something called a real life that gets in the way of all this fun.

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I have other FF items on the agenda for this thread I want to tackle, a dynasty start up draft in May (or two if FBG staff does one), and something called a real life that gets in the way of all this fun.

This is your real life now that you are on staff. ;)

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no love for Mossis Madu or Curtis Brinkley? not even listed while both backs showed flashes last week for different reasons.

Nope.Madu did little at Oklahoma (219 career carries, 59 carries in SR year for a 4.3 ypc), is AT BEST a CoP back during what I think will be a short NFL career. Tampa is expected to upgrade the RB position, if not with Richardson, with one of the next couple backs in the 2nd round. Blount will remain. Probably also add a FA still like Hightower or another of the availables. Madu got on the field (15 rushes and 10 catches) the last 5 weeks of the season because Graham was hurt and Blount was entering the doghouse and the team was falling behind by 20 points by half time every week. I see him as strictly a depth guy and always be iffy to make a roster. No dynasty upside here.Brinkley will be nearly 27 when the season starts, IMO beyond the window of opportunity for a surprise Tier 8 possible breakout player and not on the level of the Tier 7 guys. There's no chance to be a breakout player with Mathews there. I list 999 category guys that I think are possibly fantasy rosterable, and I don't see that with him. He's JAG (just a guy). Three NFL seasons, only 2 career carries until last year. Got almost all of his 30 carrier in 2011 in two games, one when Tolbert was out and the other in meaningless Week 17 when Mathews didn't play. They've brought in McClain (I realize he's RB/FB hybrid, but J Hester will prob be re-signed as FB) and he'll bypass Brinkley and per GM Smith they are still looking to add RB in FA or draft. I don't see Brinkley ever having a meaningful role. JAG.
Madu was behind Murray who is fairly talented and 3 down back so why would they take him off the field? Looking at his college production and judging him while he didn't see any action doesn't really mean much to me, but if it does to you that's fine. He's looked good as a pass catcher out of the backfield in limited action last season catching 9 balls in the last 3 games. Whether they draft a back or not, chances are he could compete for a 3rd down role. It doesn't take many balls thrown his way to have value in PPR leagues.As for Brinkley, he had a bullet in his butt which has hindered his development. He's also been on San Diego's practice squad since his rookie season. If AJ Smith has been holding him that long only too discard him as peanuts would be too bad. He beat out Todman so that says something. I don't think McClain gets carries over him, but I could be wrong. If McClain couldn't beat out Jackie "Stevie Wonder" Battle for carries, what makes you think he's a threat to Brinkley?

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Hey, this is my first shark pool post not using the Couch Potato account. I think I'm going to miss being CP. Anyway, onward...

Perhaps the memory of Couch Potato could live on in Bruce Hammond's continued use of the CP avatar?As for your rankings, one guy that strikes me as being low is Jaquizz Rodgers. His owners seem unlikely to give him up for many of the guys ranked above him, particularly the rookie RBs who you'll be able to land with mid 2nds to early 3rds. I don't know many Quizz owners who would unload him for even an early 2nd. Obviously his size is a concern, as you suggested he's unlikely "to ever fill a lead roll", but he could still have nice value in a complementary roll. With Turner's decline, it would seem that he's headed for more work this season which is reinforced by recent comments on how much Mike Smith loves his potential. And while ATL will probably draft a RB this year, it would likely be a bigger back to replace Turner down the line. Anyway, congrats on your hiring and thanks for your thoughtful and thorough rankings! It will be great to have some more consistently available dynasty ranking on FBG.

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Love the rankings and thread. My only very minor complaint is on the way you rank guys that are tied. For example, you got Stafford and Luck as 2 and 2.1. Then you list Cam as #3, when he is actually your 4th ranked QB. Rivers is listed as 5, but he is actually your 7th ranked QB. Just a minor point, but when you get further down the list it starts to confuse. First I see Bush as 24th RB and I scratch my head, but then when I start to count I see he is really 30 something on your list.

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Love the rankings and thread. My only very minor complaint is on the way you rank guys that are tied. For example, you got Stafford and Luck as 2 and 2.1. Then you list Cam as #3, when he is actually your 4th ranked QB. Rivers is listed as 5, but he is actually your 7th ranked QB. Just a minor point, but when you get further down the list it starts to confuse. First I see Bush as 24th RB and I scratch my head, but then when I start to count I see he is really 30 something on your list.

The "x.1" doesn't mean ties. It's for rookies.This was mentioned near the top of the post:"The predraft rookies are ranked numerically using tenths (i.e., 27.1 is between veterans 27 and 28). The reason is I didn't want to disturb the vet ranking numbers until after the NFL draft."Since the destinations of these rookies are not yet known and we don't know how the draft will affect the vet rankings, and also to keep the rankings numbers comparable to FBG rankings and others around the net that don't yet rank the rokies, I thought this best. The predraft rookies' draft slots also are a lot more tentative than the vets.

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Perhaps the memory of Couch Potato could live on in Bruce Hammond's continued use of the CP avatar?

Good idea. Done.

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As for your rankings, one guy that strikes me as being low is Jaquizz Rodgers. His owners seem unlikely to give him up for many of the guys ranked above him, particularly the rookie RBs who you'll be able to land with mid 2nds to early 3rds. I don't know many Quizz owners who would unload him for even an early 2nd. Obviously his size is a concern, as you suggested he's unlikely "to ever fill a lead roll", but he could still have nice value in a complementary roll. With Turner's decline, it would seem that he's headed for more work this season which is reinforced by recent comments on how much Mike Smith loves his potential. And while ATL will probably draft a RB this year, it would likely be a bigger back to replace Turner down the line.

I know that both Bloom and Tefertiller agree with you, they have him a lot higher than I'd ever consider putting him. But Jeff T has another CoP back IMO, Hunter, also really high for my tastes.I may end up being way wrong about Quiz, or about anyone else for that matter, and if owners who are holding fast to him as a RB20ish guy and end up right, more power to them. It's just my opinion that he's a small 5th round talent CoP back, not cut out for a lot more, and when Turner is gone they'll get his replacement in the draft or free agency. This year it'll be Turner, Snelling, Quiz in terms of carries, probably in that order, and Quiz will get his share of passes (more than last year per HC Smith). Time will tell whether his role expands beyond that.

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As for your rankings, one guy that strikes me as being low is Jaquizz Rodgers. His owners seem unlikely to give him up for many of the guys ranked above him, particularly the rookie RBs who you'll be able to land with mid 2nds to early 3rds. I don't know many Quizz owners who would unload him for even an early 2nd. Obviously his size is a concern, as you suggested he's unlikely "to ever fill a lead roll", but he could still have nice value in a complementary roll. With Turner's decline, it would seem that he's headed for more work this season which is reinforced by recent comments on how much Mike Smith loves his potential. And while ATL will probably draft a RB this year, it would likely be a bigger back to replace Turner down the line.

I know that both Bloom and Tefertiller agree with you, they have him a lot higher than I'd ever consider putting him. But Jeff T has another CoP back IMO, Hunter, also really high for my tastes.I may end up being way wrong about Quiz, or about anyone else for that matter, and if owners who are holding fast to him as a RB20ish guy and end up right, more power to them. It's just my opinion that he's a small 5th round talent CoP back, not cut out for a lot more, and when Turner is gone they'll get his replacement in the draft or free agency. This year it'll be Turner, Snelling, Quiz in terms of carries, probably in that order, and Quiz will get his share of passes (more than last year per HC Smith). Time will tell whether his role expands beyond that.
Congrats on the new position.Article suggestion - identify players who will drop in value the most in the immediate wake of the draft. Would not surprise me in the least to see teams that feel they are "this close" drafting a RB early, especially where they have an older vet holding down the fort. I predict Jaquizz and Kendall's star will fade soon. RB jockeying between Det, SF, Atl, and GB too (maybe) might get very interesting. Turmoil cometh.

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Very nice effort and congrats on your "promotion." I am curious as too how you tier players and determine their dynasty value. For instance I see several players in tier 3 that IMO should be classified as "Elite talents who will help you win fantasy football championships."

Roddy and AJo are two examples. There may be concerns about age and durability but I think both will be at the top of their game for at minimum of 2 more years. Wondering what criteria you use to slot them into tier 3 as opposed to tier 2. Personally I would rather have either player than most players listed in tier 2.

TIA

Edited for grammar

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Very nice effort and congrats on your "promotion." I am curious as too how you tier players and determine their dynasty value. For instance I see several players in tier 3 that IMO should be classified as "Elite talents who will help you win fantasy football championships."

Roddy and AJo are two examples. There may be concerns about age and durability but I think both will be at the top of their game for at minimum of 2 more years. Wondering what criteria you use to slot them into tier 3 as opposed to tier 2. Personally I would rather have either player than most players listed in tier 2.

TIA

Edited for grammar

I'll respond to this during the week, once I get my QYR stuff up. I think it might help with my explanation to have it.

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I have my dynasty rankings up at the main site. They don't have the sideways name thingy set up for me yet so I'm the blank set of rankings dated 4/1 for QB, RB, WR, TE. I haven't done the overall category or the scroll over notes yet, but will work on those this week.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=wr&type=dynasty&howrecent=90

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I have my dynasty rankings up at the main site. They don't have the sideways name thingy set up for me yet so I'm the blank set of rankings dated 4/1 for QB, RB, WR, TE. I haven't done the overall category or the scroll over notes yet, but will work on those this week.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=wr&type=dynasty&howrecent=90

Are your rankings ppr or non ppr?

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I have my dynasty rankings up at the main site. They don't have the sideways name thingy set up for me yet so I'm the blank set of rankings dated 4/1 for QB, RB, WR, TE. I haven't done the overall category or the scroll over notes yet, but will work on those this week.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=wr&type=dynasty&howrecent=90

Are your rankings ppr or non ppr?
The rankings are PPR. My rankings in this thread are PPR and I thought I was going to have to adjust, but Jeff Teff told me this weekend the dynasty rankings at the site will be PPR also so I left things as is. If that changes, I'll make adjustments.Also, I did move Antonio Brown up to 26 from 35 where he is in this thread, moved Sid Rice down to 29 from 26, and renumbered the surrounding guys accordingly. One other minor move was Burleson to 55 from 59 with the guys between dropping down a notch. When I add my QYR stuff those changes will all be in the OP.Jeff has added the rookies at the main site in his rankings (we just got that capability per Drinen this weekend). I've chosen to hold off adding the rookies there until after the draft unless I'm told to do so. I just think their ranking is too fluid until the draft takes place, and I didn't want to rank them here either except to use the "xx.1" method so as not to disturb the vet numbers.

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I have my dynasty rankings up at the main site. They don't have the sideways name thingy set up for me yet so I'm the blank set of rankings dated 4/1 for QB, RB, WR, TE. I haven't done the overall category or the scroll over notes yet, but will work on those this week.http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=wr&type=dynasty&howrecent=90

Are your rankings ppr or non ppr?
The rankings are PPR. My rankings in this thread are PPR and I thought I was going to have to adjust, but Jeff Teff told me this weekend the dynasty rankings at the site will be PPR also so I left things as is. If that changes, I'll make adjustments.
Is Jeff sure about that? None of those staff rankings on this site have ever been ppr, and it still indicates that they're non-ppr (the scoring that they're based on is listed directly above the rankings). Having staff list their rankings in the same system whether they're based on ppr or non-ppr doesn't seem too logical, especially if that's not indicated anywhere.

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After reading your response to RedZone in regards to keeper leagues, I'd be very interested to see the addition of a "short term value" notation for those who are significantly different than their rankings. For example, someone like Brady, whom you see a big drop-off in 2-3 years, or JStewart, who's unlikely to provide more than RB2 numbers this years.

Not only will this help for keeper leagues (which usually look only 2-3 years down the road), but would be a huge boon for those teams who are making a push for a championship this year. Obviously we could simply compare them to other FBG's redraft rankings, but having them done by the same person would be considerably more helpful.

Keep up the great work, and I'm very glad to see that you've been added to the staff here.

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Tonight I have added my QYR (Quality Years Remaining) numbers. They are shown after player ages and are in bold italics.

The discussion of what these are all about, for those not familiar with them from my previous Shark Pool threads, will have to wait until tomorrow (hopefully) or Wednesday. Then I can try to address some other points raised in this thread a little better.

I'm off to eat, drink, and watch college hoops and am done here for the night.

:thumbup:

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I love the addition of the QYR, but I'm not sure how useful they are in their current form. For example, the QYR for someone you expect to be a top-10 talent is much more meaningful than the QYR for someone you don't expect to become a legitimate fantasy starter. Having a player who'll be active for a long time is great, but if he never gets into your starting lineup over those years, he's essentially worthless to you. I suspect most owners would prefer someone who'd put up WR1 numbers for one year and then flame out to someone who will consistently put up WR5-6 numbers for 10 years (barring a VERY deep starting lineup, of course).

Perhaps if you expanded the concept of QYR to include "top 15/30" (i.e. startable) seasons, that would provide a much more meaningful metric when determining whether to draft a player.

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whoa dude this is aweosme yuo are really cool for sharing this thank you brohan with a plan

Just wanted to say youre one of my favorite posters brohan and I dont know or care if this is an alias you use or if its all schtik or not I just get a laugh out of your no punctuation style and fun commentary and using the word brohan all the time see you later brohan with a plan
dude you are one of my favorite posters too becuase i love french fries and they are made out of potatoes and heart attacks so take it to the blood bank bronan the barbarian

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Tonight I have added my QYR (Quality Years Remaining) numbers. They are shown after player ages and are in bold italics.

Bruce, is the terminal age (age + QYR) a variable based on amount of VBD a player has accumulated to this point in his career? I notice that they aren't uniform within position and I'm guessing it's similar to an actuarial table where the older you are and in good health the more likely it is that you'll live longer? Or something similar?

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I suspect most owners would prefer someone who'd put up WR1 numbers for one year and then flame out to someone who will consistently put up WR5-6 numbers for 10 years (barring a VERY deep starting lineup, of course).

I get the point of your post, and I think there is merit there, but I think you overstated it with this example. I'd prefer 10 years of the #5 WR to 1 year of the #1 WR, and it's not particularly close.

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I suspect most owners would prefer someone who'd put up WR1 numbers for one year and then flame out to someone who will consistently put up WR5-6 numbers for 10 years (barring a VERY deep starting lineup, of course).

I get the point of your post, and I think there is merit there, but I think you overstated it with this example. I'd prefer 10 years of the #5 WR to 1 year of the #1 WR, and it's not particularly close.
I think SelenaCat meant a WR5 (#49-#60 in a 12 team league); not the 5th ranked WR. In other words most owners would prefer one year of Andre Johnson/Calvin Johnson over 10 years of Mohammed Massaquoi, for example.

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I suspect most owners would prefer someone who'd put up WR1 numbers for one year and then flame out to someone who will consistently put up WR5-6 numbers for 10 years (barring a VERY deep starting lineup, of course).

I get the point of your post, and I think there is merit there, but I think you overstated it with this example. I'd prefer 10 years of the #5 WR to 1 year of the #1 WR, and it's not particularly close.
She meant WR5/6 on your team I think. Not WR5/6 in the league.

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I suspect most owners would prefer someone who'd put up WR1 numbers for one year and then flame out to someone who will consistently put up WR5-6 numbers for 10 years (barring a VERY deep starting lineup, of course).

I get the point of your post, and I think there is merit there, but I think you overstated it with this example. I'd prefer 10 years of the #5 WR to 1 year of the #1 WR, and it's not particularly close.
I think SelenaCat meant a WR5 (#49-#60 in a 12 team league); not the 5th ranked WR. In other words most owners would prefer one year of Andre Johnson/Calvin Johnson over 10 years of Mohammed Massaquoi, for example.
OK, that makes more sense. :bag:

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I think SelenaCat meant a WR5 (#49-#60 in a 12 team league); not the 5th ranked WR. In other words most owners would prefer one year of Andre Johnson/Calvin Johnson over 10 years of Mohammed Massaquoi, for example.

Yes, that's what I meant. And a perfect example, too, thanks!

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Tonight I have added my QYR (Quality Years Remaining) numbers. They are shown after player ages and are in bold italics.

Bruce, is the terminal age (age + QYR) a variable based on amount of VBD a player has accumulated to this point in his career? I notice that they aren't uniform within position and I'm guessing it's similar to an actuarial table where the older you are and in good health the more likely it is that you'll live longer? Or something similar?
Would like a description of what the QYR is all about. Maybe I missed it (defintiely a possibility).

Peyton is a 0.5 but will probably play 3 more "quality" years.

While a guy like Kaepernick has 9.something and may never see a quality season.

Looks like it is based strictly on age, not performance. That is mostly a useless variable when the players age is already listed next to the QYR.

Inquiring minds want to know.

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