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Couch Potato

Couch Potato 2012 Dynasty Rankings

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Not to speak for Bruce, but he'll correct me if I misrepresent him here.

The comments on QYR all seem to be focused around player fantasy value, but it is QYR, not CVBDR (career VBD remaining). QYR is a number that gives a sense of time remaining before a category of player (QB, RB, etc.) may be expected to go into serious decline. It is intended to be a general guideline and not an individual evaluation of any specific player.

More info in this old thread: Quality Years Remaining (QYR), Player Useful Life Expectancy.

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I'm not arguing the QYR isn't a useful figure, but taken in a vacuum, it's as useless as a player's age. If it was combined with a "maximum likely achievement" or some valuation of likely startable games/seasons, then it'd be a much more useful piece of the puzzle. Obviously QYR is fairly relevant for the top tiers and can be easily extrapolated to startable years, but for someone in tier 6/7, it's a very valid question to ask, "Will he ever be relevant? Or will he simply be taking up roster space?"

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Hey peoplez... just popping in for a sec during a lunch break. I sort of regret adding the QYR numbers without making the time at the same time to talk about it at least briefly. But Monday night was shot with the NCAAs and beer, and both yesterday and today my work life (real work life , not FBG) are taking all my time. This morning at breakfast I was on and saw some discussion but, like right now, couldn't commit more than a couple minutes to being on the board. I'd like to think tonight I can get back on here if I get home with some time and energy left.

Just Win Baby in post #241 above does a nice job of a short description, as some of the above posts are taking it for something it's not (that's my fault for dumping the numbers here Monday night and disappearing).

I don't pretend it's a cure for cancer or anything revolutionary. It's not an evaluation of any specific player, it's just a rule of thumb calculation for a generic player at each position. Some may find it useful to some degree, some may see it as irrelevant. That's fine. Anyway, again sorry I've not been on to follow through with a decent explanation. I'll do my best to be on tonight to do so.

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Oh one more thing. Sorry to be CP sometimes and BH other times, I hope no one is confused by that as we go along. To make edits to the original post I have to use the Couch Potato account and if I have other posts I want to make at that time I just stay with that. But most of the time I'll be on as Bruce Hammond, as that is preferred by the FBG powers that be (as I understand it second hand anyway).

OK, gotta run. CPA in April and all that.

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a couple other guys for you to watch Bruce:

Diondre Borel and Tori Gurley

Both Green Bay Packer practice squad WR's who had to be given raises in order to keep them around as other teams tried to pluck them. This is in addition to Chastin West who Jacksonville claimed earlier in the season. Seems they know how to find WR's. Borel is a former Utah State QB

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Is the new site gonna allow for tiering and comments on the rankings? Otherwise I fear so much of the richness is lost compared to something like this thread.

I know the ranks do have the comments but those seem to be hardly used and the tiering is not currently available...

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CP - loved this thread for the last couple months. Will you be doing a post-draft update?

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CP - loved this thread for the last couple months. Will you be doing a post-draft update?

:goodposting:

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I sent him a IM and he responded this past Monday saying he would be updating them very soon. Hopefully this week.

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I just finished updating rankings today, and needed to post to FBG site first. They are up there. 50QB, 75RB, 90WR, 50TE are at FBG rankings page for those who want to go now.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=qb&type=dynasty&howrecent=21 for QB.

I'll have this thread updated tonight I think. All the notes will not be done, but the rankings will be there.

Hard to believe it's been 30 days since I updated this thread. So much has happened since then. Finishing tax filing deadline 4/17, the stuff that needed to be extended then had to get done, and then a leg injury and Doctor / hospital time during this past week. It's been sort of nuts.

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and then a leg injury and Doctor / hospital time

You do know that the expression "break a leg" isn't meant to be taken literally, right? :)Looking forward to your comments. Any schlub can make a list of players, but it's the "why" that's ever so important when trying to decide how much you want to weigh those rankings when developing your own. Thanks for the good work!

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and then a leg injury and Doctor / hospital time

You do know that the expression "break a leg" isn't meant to be taken literally, right? :)Looking forward to your comments. Any schlub can make a list of players, but it's the "why" that's ever so important when trying to decide how much you want to weigh those rankings when developing your own. Thanks for the good work!
Thanks.Was a high ankle sprain and some circulation issues, but it's under control now.I spent more time than I'd hoped with the FBG rookie rankings tonight (it's sort of a time consuming process when you're inputting the first pass), so the shark pool update will be up tomorrow.If my leg doesn't fall off.

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I think 49ers rookie WR A.J. Jenkins could be moved up a bit. Not saying he'll be a #1 but I invision him as a decent #2 eventually with a QB other than Smith. I think after this year, who know maybe this year, he'll be a starter over Manningham & Moss if he's still there. Think the kid has potential but a lot of work to do,. If he puts in the effort and a little more I think there's a good possibility he can be very successful and I like his upside. Of course I'm wanting to see another QB in S.F. Who knows, with all the extra picks they got this year from trades maybe Jim Harbaugh goes out and gets Matt Barkley. I think Jenkins development decreases though as long as Smith stays the starter. Give A.J. a franchise QB and he'll make good use of him & vice-versa, whomever that is.

Nice list though CP.I saved it to my favorites list. Thanks for all the work on it. :thumbup:

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I think 49ers rookie WR A.J. Jenkins could be moved up a bit. Not saying he'll be a #1 but I invision him as a decent #2 eventually with a QB other than Smith. I think after this year, who know maybe this year, he'll be a starter over Manningham & Moss if he's still there. Think the kid has potential but a lot of work to do,. If he puts in the effort and a little more I think there's a good possibility he can be very successful and I like his upside. Of course I'm wanting to see another QB in S.F. Who knows, with all the extra picks they got this year from trades maybe Jim Harbaugh goes out and gets Matt Barkley. I think Jenkins development decreases though as long as Smith stays the starter. Give A.J. a franchise QB and he'll make good use of him & vice-versa, whomever that is.Nice list though CP.I saved it to my favorites list. Thanks for all the work on it. :thumbup:

If you're looking at the the list in the post #1, that's not updated post-draft yet. When I post the fresh rankings he'll be WR43 in tier 4. :)

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Post-NFL draft update is done 5/4 for QBs, with notes. I'll be working on the rest this weekend.

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To be completely honest, choosing and sticking with an evaluation window is something I've never forced myself to really take a stand on, and I know I've sort of dodged this question from you before. I'm still unclear whether it's a big weakness of mine not to choose and stick with 3 years, 5 years, rest of career etc., or if it's better to be more flexible and circumstantial. If I'm building a rocket to the moon I do things precisely by the book or people die. But, if I'm admiring paintings at the Louvre I know paint-by-number stuff this ain't. So, my answer is sort of "it depends." I know "it depends" isn't much of an answer, but that's what I've usually fallen back on, unsatisfying as it is. There are little projects I still want to get to that may help narrow down how much I can believe this to be science and how much art, and I'm interested to know if I'll come up with a less hazy idea of evaluation windows if / when I ever complete these projects.

CP, great thread and this latest post, which I clipped, is one of many great posts from you in this thread.Focusing on the window element, I just wanted to make sure it is clear what I mean. It is of course typically the case that a player with high level talent who is 23 carries more long term value than a player with high level talent who is 33. The real question is how the different elements, like short term vs. long term value, are emphasized in rankings.To illustrate with an example, one might think Brees has 3 excellent seasons left, followed by two good seasons. Maybe something like this:2012: top 42013: top 42014: top 82015: top 102016: top 12And perhaps, even being high on Luck, one might think he will take a couple seasons to become a top fantasy performer, even if he ultimately becomes elite. Maybe something like this:2012: top 202013: top 152014: top 102015: top 82016: top 5If one projects these kinds of progressions, is it unreasonable to prefer Brees, pushing for near term championships? Particularly for one who is confident in his ability to draft/acquire value players down the line?This partly depends on scoring system, state of roster, etc. But IMO it also partly depends on philosophy.Note: I am not arguing for ranking Brees over Luck, just trying to illustrate what I was trying to get at earlier.Excellent discussion. :thumbup:
I've run out of time tonight, other things I need to do before bed. I gotcha, and will follow up tomorrow.
CP, did you ever get back to this? I was enjoying this discussion and figured the dust may have settled enough from tax season and your move to FBG to get back to it.

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On your QB rankings, a few comments:

1. Why Eli over Rivers? Is this all about situation? Rivers is one year younger. Since Rivers began starting, he has been a better fantasy QB than Eli in 4 of 6 seasons. Eli has been a top 5 fantasy QB once - he was #5 all the way back in 2005. Rivers has been top 5 twice in the past 4 seasons. Granted, Eli outperformed Rivers last season, when he was QB6 and Rivers was QB9.

2. I still think you are low on Schaub. You have mentioned in this thread that you think the Texans have become a running team... but in 2010 they had an elite rushing attack and still attempted 574 passes (#10 in the league). It seems risky to me to draw any conclusions from last season, when they had their 3rd string QB start the last 5 regular season games and missed Andre Johnson for 9+ games. Schaub is going to turn 31 this summer, so age isn't a concern. I have a very hard time understanding ranking Palmer higher, and I wouldn't rank Flacco or Tannehill over him either.

3. I think you might be selling Freeman short a bit. He has 3 years of experience yet is only 24. The Bucs added VJax, Nicks, and Martin, and Michael Smith could also be a contributor. That's a nice overall upgrade for the offense.

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On your QB rankings, a few comments:2. I still think you are low on Schaub. You have mentioned in this thread that you think the Texans have become a running team... but in 2010 they had an elite rushing attack and still attempted 574 passes (#10 in the league). It seems risky to me to draw any conclusions from last season, when they had their 3rd string QB start the last 5 regular season games and missed Andre Johnson for 9+ games. Schaub is going to turn 31 this summer, so age isn't a concern. I have a very hard time understanding ranking Palmer higher, and I wouldn't rank Flacco or Tannehill over him either.

I would actually put Schaub a tier below. At 31, age is certainly a concern. For guys that don't miss big portions of the season 3 out of 5 time then 31 isn't that old, but I think his best years are in the past. This season is a "show me" year, but I think he shows that he's an NFL starter for only a year or two more. Pretty ballsy ranking Luck above Cam. I don't agree with it, but I like it.

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On your QB rankings, a few comments:2. I still think you are low on Schaub. You have mentioned in this thread that you think the Texans have become a running team... but in 2010 they had an elite rushing attack and still attempted 574 passes (#10 in the league). It seems risky to me to draw any conclusions from last season, when they had their 3rd string QB start the last 5 regular season games and missed Andre Johnson for 9+ games. Schaub is going to turn 31 this summer, so age isn't a concern. I have a very hard time understanding ranking Palmer higher, and I wouldn't rank Flacco or Tannehill over him either.

I would actually put Schaub a tier below. At 31, age is certainly a concern. For guys that don't miss big portions of the season 3 out of 5 time then 31 isn't that old, but I think his best years are in the past. This season is a "show me" year, but I think he shows that he's an NFL starter for only a year or two more. Pretty ballsy ranking Luck above Cam. I don't agree with it, but I like it.
:goodposting: Schaub is NOTHING special. Palmer has better WR's and so does Flacco. Tanny over Schaub in dynasty just because he's younger and actually has some potential left.

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The post-draft rankings update is now completed and posted for all positions (5/12). I'll be updating the FBG main site dynasty rankings pages tomorrow.

It's later than I'd hoped, but a lot of other things have been going on since the draft and time has been really limited.

Over the next few days I'd really like to get back to the discussions we were having and follow up on the comments and questions that never got addressed.

Thanks for your patience.

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Schaub is NOTHING special.

Actually, I'd argue that he's one of the most underrated QBs in the NFL. Certainly a lot more efficient than Palmer and Flacco.

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Schaub is NOTHING special.

Actually, I'd argue that he's one of the most underrated QBs in the NFL. Certainly a lot more efficient than Palmer and Flacco.
IMO, when he's healthy he's as good (in the regular season obviously) as Eli.

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Just wanted you to talk about Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin a little bit.

You're very high on Luck. You must buy the "best prospect since Peyton" analysis hook, line, and sinker. The way I see it, he's going to need to be as pure a passer and football savvy as Peyton to merit this ranking. Do you see him taking a year or two to develop into a stud in the NFL or do you think he'll be a Cam level talent from the onset? Further, I could see him struggling for a couple of years as the only elite type talent he has is a fading Reggie Wayne. Wayne only has a few years left and the Colts' offensive draft picks are going to have to develop well for Luck to have targets. So, are you sold that Luck will elevate the players around him? Otherwise, he'll struggle early with the greenie learning curve and a lack of playmakers besides Wayne. A few years into his career he's going to need to carry this offense in addition to having his young teammates become playmakers. He's all that?

Griffin I'm a little less familiar with. I'm going to ask what you think of him as a fantasy prospect relative to the scoring system my league uses. Passing and rushing yards are combined for quarterback scoring and 25 yards scores 1 point. Being that rushing yards for QB's are greatly discounted in this format, how far down would you move Griffin if you were ranking players for this league?

A little further questioning on Griffin, I know he's got elite athleticism and a great arm, but how developed of a passer is he? Jon Gruden said on draft night that a lot of his college production came from schematics that aren't used in the NFL. Do you think he'll fit well into more of a pro-style offense? I think his athleticism will be utilized well under Shanahan with a lot of bootlegs, etc., which will help but is he going to be enough of a drop back passer?

Comparing the two fantasy wise, Griffin is often ranked higher than Luck in redrafts. How do you like them for this year? Do you at all see Griffin being the better initial play and Luck being the better long term one?

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Updated 6/3 for all positions. Included are updated player notes, except WR which have not been updated but have been cleaned up to get rid of comments that have become erroneous or obsolete with the passage of time. I'll get the WR notes done in the next few days. after my vacation. I've run out of time.

I've been away from this thread awhile, busy with so much other stuff. I'm going on vacation 6/6 for a week but will do my best to catch up and comment on posts above before I go. after I return. I have a few rants in mind I hope to get out there.

:)

Edited 6/5... I'm out of time before my trip.

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I spent some time perusing the staff dynasty rankings tonight- it's been a while. Despite a quibble or two (Andre Johnson), your rankings are clearly most like mine. Actually I don't rank players, except in my gut; but still, you're top dog dog when I want to counter-balance my gut feelings against a well-thought out professional opinion on a given player's dynasty prospects.

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Great job, Bruce. I can't quibble with the individual rankings. Philosophically, though, I believe you generally short-change difference-makers with 2-3 dominant seasons left in favor of younger players who may never reach that level at any point in their careers. The primary directive is to wave as many banners as possible, not build the prettiest young roster.

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Great job, Bruce. I can't quibble with the individual rankings. Philosophically, though, I believe you generally short-change difference-makers with 2-3 dominant seasons left in favor of younger players who may never reach that level at any point in their careers. The primary directive is to wave as many banners as possible, not build the prettiest young roster.

:goodposting: There is a very strong bias towards fresh faces in his rankings.

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Great job, Bruce. I can't quibble with the individual rankings. Philosophically, though, I believe you generally short-change difference-makers with 2-3 dominant seasons left in favor of younger players who may never reach that level at any point in their careers. The primary directive is to wave as many banners as possible, not build the prettiest young roster.

I agree with you pretty strongly as far as how I tend to build my teams, but in their role as a "universal trade value list" youth-centric rankings have their place. In my experience most dynasty owners DO over-value youth to a greater or lesser degree.Once you've played FF for a while, you tend to realize that in H2H playoffs anything can and often does happen. Playing to reach the playoffs every year is definitely a + EV play over always trying to have the "should be dominant in two years" roster.

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Great job, Bruce. I can't quibble with the individual rankings. Philosophically, though, I believe you generally short-change difference-makers with 2-3 dominant seasons left in favor of younger players who may never reach that level at any point in their careers. The primary directive is to wave as many banners as possible, not build the prettiest young roster.

:goodposting: There is a very strong bias towards fresh faces in his rankings.
The key in dynasty I have found is MOST dyno players over value youth/picks. I use it to my advantage.

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Great job, Bruce. I can't quibble with the individual rankings. Philosophically, though, I believe you generally short-change difference-makers with 2-3 dominant seasons left in favor of younger players who may never reach that level at any point in their careers. The primary directive is to wave as many banners as possible, not build the prettiest young roster.

:goodposting: There is a very strong bias towards fresh faces in his rankings.
The key in dynasty I have found is MOST dyno players over value youth/picks. I use it to my advantage.
Tend to call the shiny and new roster owners "easy money." They don't play to win in any year even though they are telling themselves that they are.

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i think it is perfectly reasonable to DRAFT the pretty new shinies as they are ranked above then TRADE one pretty new shiny for two old well-used veterans (who both will outproduce pretty new shiny)

so i use rankings as TRADE VALUE not who is the better player for next two years

IMO rankings are for drafting, not "who is better"

sounds weird i know, but i do understand a youth-centric ranking

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The key in dynasty I have found is MOST dyno players over value youth/picks. I use it to my advantage.

Tend to call the shiny and new roster owners "easy money." They don't play to win in any year even though they are telling themselves that they are.
My sentiments exactly. Especially draft picks beyond the top-5 in a given year. Laugh your way to another title with Antonio Gates and Steve Smith this year while other guys overvalue Jermaine Gresham, Brent Celek, Antonio Brown, and the rookie WRs. I'm not saying all older players are undervalued. Most aren't even worth the roster space. It's the aging players that can still be expected to give you an upperhand every week for the next 2-3 years that are Dynasty gems.

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Just wanted to say this is a fantastic thread. Rigorous debate, alternative hypotheses and solid writing skills from the OP. A joy to read and follow. Nice job CP.

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Just wanted to say this is a fantastic thread. Rigorous debate, alternative hypotheses and solid writing skills from the OP. A joy to read and follow. Nice job CP.

Seconded.

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A phrase that is candy to my ears come trade deadline from a team contending for a play-off spot:

"I need to trade _____ (pick an aging stud) while I can still get value for him."

Sweet! Thanks for taking yourself out of the Championship picture THIS YEAR for a random hopeful that statistically won't pan out in the next 2 years.

And if I happen to be the owner getting the aging stud, doubly sweet as it increases my chances of taking home the trophy.

I'm not saying that having a roster full of aging studs is the best team make-up. I think there needs to be balance. Performers and hopefuls. I see too many teams go to the extremes on each end of the spectrum.

I like to use the draft to replace my studs, not use my studs to replace my draftees. Not sure that will make sense to everyone.

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