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coolnerd

Houston Texans Off-Season Thread

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I really hope that's not the case. I mean, if you hope to re-sign someone, at least be in contact with their agent even if you're not able to spend your time with them yet negotiating.

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really surprised that Winston was cut and if Myers is also cut, what are you guy's thoughts on the immediate impact to the Texans' running game? Seeems like a huge hit

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Assuming they re-sign Brisiel if they let Myers go, then Brisiel might move to center and Antoine Caldwell would step in at guard. Caldwell has gotten playing time due to injuries and as far as I can recall has done decent.

Really hard to say though if you're replacing 2 players and shuffling another to a different position. I'm a big fan of offensive lines having time to gel with one another.

I'm really having a hard time saying. That I'm working on an hour and a half of sleep last night isn't helping me form my thoughts either, heh.

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This little bit of info comes from Pro Football Talk regarding Winston's release:

"The Texans’ Monday night release of longtime right tackle Eric Winston caught a lot of folks by surprise.

FOX Sports’ Alex Marvez reports that the Texans cut Winston with a “failed physical” designation.

Per Marvez, Winston underwent arthroscopic ankle surgery in February. He anticipates receiving full medical clearance in two weeks, and has already begun scheduling visits.

Winston visited the Dolphins on Tuesday night.

Florio has reported that Winston also plans to visit the St. Louis Rams and Kansas City Chiefs."

I just don't understand what's going on in Houston. After finally breaking through to the postseason, we could potentially lose 3 starters on the o-line. I hope Butler, Caldwell and Newton can step in, but that's alot of new pieces :(

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I'm baffled at what the Texans are doing, too. :confused: :confused: :confused:

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My guess is the failed medical thing with Winston isn't really relevant to his release. I don't know that it was even worth PFT reporting.

I share the concern about the O-line though. Hopefully they re-sign Myers and Brisiel. I think Brisiel is by far the less necessary of the two though.

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John McClain

RG Mike brisiel visiting raiders. TE Joel Dreessen visiting saints.

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Mario Williams tweet:

Thanks to all the real Texan fans out there. It has been a great ride for six years and I wish the team the very best. Much love to the Players, coaches and staff. It is unfortunate to have to leave such a great place due to salary cap constraints and other intentions.

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Wish Mario the best. Pretty damn good player, but he's a better fit for a 4-3 IMO. Just one of those things where the circumstances seemed to make a divorce necessary. I don't think he's worth that kind of contract but don't blame him one bit. I think he tweeted it perfectly, and I'll root for him except against us...

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Too bad the Texas have no interest in Manning. They'd be the instant Super Bowl favorites.

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Woot woot

Jason Cole@JasonColeYahooChris Myers signs 4-yr, $25m deal with Hous. $14m guaranteed

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Thank goodness. Was getting a bit glum after hearing about the Briesel signing.

Agree the price seems decent. Mangold got 8 years, $55m with $25m guaranteed two years ago. If the Jets don't cut or restructure him, Mangold's cap hits over the 4 years of Myers contract would be $32.5m, so $7m more.

So Caldwell and Butler move into the starting lineup, and the Texans will probably need to get some OL depth in free agency or the draft. Last year re-signing Butler to have some depth was one of the things I recall being a priority in my mind. Now the depth is gone.

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Being reported as a 4th and swap of picks in the third round.

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What do Texans fans think about making a run at Mike Wallace?

I imagine most of us would love to have him as a player but don't see any way the Texans would make it work with the salary cap. Texans are worse off than the Steelers in cap room in that the Steelers have a lot of aging players they can cut to save money. Texans are one of the youngest teams in the league. Or, were before signing Delhomme and Garcia last year, heh.
How's the cap looking now?

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What do Texans fans think about making a run at Mike Wallace?

I imagine most of us would love to have him as a player but don't see any way the Texans would make it work with the salary cap. Texans are worse off than the Steelers in cap room in that the Steelers have a lot of aging players they can cut to save money. Texans are one of the youngest teams in the league. Or, were before signing Delhomme and Garcia last year, heh.
How's the cap looking now?
Cut Jacoby Jones and then let's see...

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Who is managing the cap down there?? Cutting/trading players to meet cap restrictions is almost unheard of in today's NFL.

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I think the move makes sense. For a team in need of cap room, DeMeco was a more obvious person to part with than Winston was in my opinion. Sharpton looked good in his place until he was injured, and I think DeMeco is probably better suited for a 4-3 anyway, so might have more value to another team which means good trade opportunity. And he had cap figures of $7.4m, $8.1m, $8.3m, and $6.8m for the next 4 years. With the Texans needing to sign Duane Brown to franchise left tackle money next year, plus re-sign Schaub, that cap room is probably going to come in handy.

I agree about they still need to cut Jacoby and hopefully sign someone at a reasonable price to pair with a WR taken in the first couple rounds.

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I'm starting to think they are making all these tough moves and angering the fan base only to cut Jacoby once it's all said and done to try to placate people. "Look we cut Jacoby too, just like you all wanted!"

Although I think it makes more football sense to keep him for now, draft his replacement and then head into training camp to see how well the rookie does first. If the rookie performs well then cut Jacoby during camp.

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What do Texans fans think about making a run at Mike Wallace?

I imagine most of us would love to have him as a player but don't see any way the Texans would make it work with the salary cap. Texans are worse off than the Steelers in cap room in that the Steelers have a lot of aging players they can cut to save money. Texans are one of the youngest teams in the league. Or, were before signing Delhomme and Garcia last year, heh.
How's the cap looking now?
I think we save about $2M this year with DeMeco because you are accelerating about $4M in prorated signing bonus. Plus he restructured last year to get us under the cap then and haven't been able to find those numbers, either way most of the savings is taken up with a dead money hit this year. However, that frees up at least 8.1M, 8.3M, & 6.8M for the next 3 years.

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I think they have a cap crisis looming next year that they are addressing now. They restructured people both last year to sign Joseph, and this year to sign Foster and Myers. Next year will be even more expensive as Duane Brown and Matt Schaub will probably both get contracts larger than either Myers or Foster. And those restructures they did pushed more money into next year and beyond. 2014 shouldn't be a problem as the cap should skyrocket due to the new TV deal money kicking in. But I could see next year having problems finding money for the players we'd need to re-sign.

Plus remember it takes a couple million to sign your rookie picks.

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I think they have a cap crisis looming next year that they are addressing now. They restructured people both last year to sign Joseph, and this year to sign Foster and Myers. Next year will be even more expensive as Duane Brown and Matt Schaub will probably both get contracts larger than either Myers or Foster. And those restructures they did pushed more money into next year and beyond. 2014 shouldn't be a problem as the cap should skyrocket due to the new TV deal money kicking in. But I could see next year having problems finding money for the players we'd need to re-sign.Plus remember it takes a couple million to sign your rookie picks.

Agreed. The Demeco Ryans deal has nothing to do with cap room for this year, it is to free up cap room over the next 3 years.On the Surface, it appears that trading Demeco would save the team his $7.4 million cap hit ($5.9 million salary plus $1.5 million pro-rated signing bonus) at the cost of the remaining signing bonus of $4.5 million. That would be a net savings of $2.9 million against the cap. However, they restructured his contract last August to free up cap space in 2011. Since his base was going to be $5.8 million in 2011, we can assume most of that was paid out in a bonus so that amount could be prorated over the remaining 5 years of his contract (Buckna is right, there is nothing on the internet to confirm what the restructure was). That means that probably at least another $4 million in last years bonus would hit the cap when they traded him. if you add the $4.5 remaining signing bonus with the $4.0 remaining 2011 bonus, you get a cap hit in 2012 of $8.5 million vs. $7.4 million it would have been if we had kept Demeco. So trading Demeco is probably adding at least $1.1 million to the 2012 salary cap.I think Rick Smith is learning very quickly that managing the cap is a lot harder with a winning team. Hopefully, he is up to the task.

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Do you guys think Kubiak intends to keep Jacoby Jones? I don't quite understand why he hasn't been cut yet, especially with

the Texans so tight around the cap. Here is a guy who is entering his 6th season, has never been a full-time starter, and averaged

only 2 catches for 33 yards per game last year when Andre Johnson was out for half the season. At this point there really is no

potential upside to his game, so I wish they would cut him and give someone else a chance to develop. At this point, other teams know

how to defend Jacoby, so he is not only an average commodity, he is a predictable commodity. Someone new, other teams would at least

have to learn how the Texans were going to use them. I am mystified as to what Kubiak sees in him.

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Do you guys think Kubiak intends to keep Jacoby Jones? I don't quite understand why he hasn't been cut yet, especially with the Texans so tight around the cap. Here is a guy who is entering his 6th season, has never been a full-time starter, and averagedonly 2 catches for 33 yards per game last year when Andre Johnson was out for half the season. At this point there really is nopotential upside to his game, so I wish they would cut him and give someone else a chance to develop. At this point, other teams knowhow to defend Jacoby, so he is not only an average commodity, he is a predictable commodity. Someone new, other teams would at leasthave to learn how the Texans were going to use them. I am mystified as to what Kubiak sees in him.

I believe the issue with Jacoby is the lack of even a "predictable" replacement. Literally, there is not a guy who has caught a pass for the Texans on the roster. With all the other cuts, there is at least a guy they "know" something about (sorry Jean and Meahl). This goes to roster and cap management. If the Texans had not been so bad at defense until (2011) and needed to over/mis use picks, they could/should/would have drafted a couple WR to develop so that they did not need to continue to overpay both Jacoby and Walter and may have been able to cut one or both of them instead of a Winston or Ryans move.

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I'd agree with that, coolnerd.

A week ago I would not have been surprised for Jacoby to still be on the team, if only because I think Kubiak and Bob McNair both are people who show loyalty to a fault. However, the release of Winston and the trading of Ryans has me wondering if that will no longer be enough to keep him.

The lack of a replacement is the biggest issue. If I were GM, I would want to cut Jacoby... but I wouldn't want to cut him until after I'd at the very least signed a free agent or drafted a rookie that I was ok with being my WR3 in 2012. Since such a player has to learn the offense and all, that means he has to be at least a little better than Jacoby just to pull even with him in the short term.

I think it's still very possible the Texans sign a free agent and cut Jones. But don't be surprised if we have to wait to happen until free agency dries up a little more and players who haven't found a home yet start dropping their asking price.

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From a distance, I see a lot of parallels to the Houston offseason moves to the Raiders offseason moves. We didn't want to lose Wimbley but it was inevitable. We lost Routt in a similar way, and will almost surely lose Bush. Cap management is a #####, I can commiserate with you Texan fans.

Not saying you are rebuilding or even not still favorites to win your division, but you lost the starting right side of your OL, Ryans, and Mario. And you were lucky to hang on to your starting Center. That's a lot of impact players lost from a team that could have legitimately gone to the Super Bowl had Schaub not went down. bummer.

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According to the Chronicle, Joel Dreessen has narrowed it to down to the offers he has from the Broncos and Texans. He says he'll decide by Friday morning which teams he's going to sign with, so we should hear something soon.

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Would love to see Joel stay. I think he led the team in TD catches if I'm not mistaken. But imagine if he became the starter with Manning throwing to him in Denver? I think he could do great things.

Will Garrett Graham ever see the field? Seems at this point that was a wasted pick. 4th rounder I think too. Oh well. Maybe he'll see some time this season.

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Well there ya go

SR610: Texans free agent TE Joel Dreessen has signed with the Denver Broncos. Dreessen scored 10 TDs over the last two seasons. http://cbsloc.al/GJDvZ5

Anybody else think Dreessen has any true fantasy football value now being paired with Peyton?

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Well there ya go

SR610: Texans free agent TE Joel Dreessen has signed with the Denver Broncos. Dreessen scored 10 TDs over the last two seasons. http://cbsloc.al/GJDvZ5

Anybody else think Dreessen has any true fantasy football value now being paired with Peyton?

I think he definitely can, yes.

Sorry to see him go. I think what we've seen is the Texans were a little free with the money 3-4 years ago when they just didn't have a lot of top players that needed to be paid. There have been quite a few contracts where I believe the consensus was they overpaid a bit.

And now that they do have a roster chock full of worthwhile players, that money that they tied up a few years ago is making it tough to keep people. Much better if you can extend these players before their contract runs out so they don't have a chance to talk to other teams.

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Couldn't agree with you more. It seems like we were paying and extending some guys just because we had the money.

Now I assume we'll definitely see some Garrett Graham action. But I figure Kubiak will look to bring in a TE who's a quality blocker, since Graham seems to be mainly a receiving threat. Wouldn't shock me if we draft a new tight end in April, which will simply bring joy and jubilation to the Houston sports radio listeners! End sarcasm.

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So from a compensatory picks standpoint, Texans have lost Mario, Brisiel, Dreessen, Vickers and Jason Allen so far to free agency. And have signed one UFA in Chris Myers.

Normally the players you sign yourself detract from what you get in compensatory picks. But I don't know if that applies to your own UFAs that you re-sign, like Myers.

Edit to add: Ok, I'm clearly not thinking straight today. Re-signing Myers won't hurt the Texans in this regard. If signing him did count against as a player signed from another team, then he'd also have to be considered as a player lost to another team and he'd cancel himself out.

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*sigh*

A little bummed about losing Dreessen. I can't blame him though for wanting to go be a team's TE1, with Peyton throwing to him, rather than continue as the second string TE. Or at best the 1B to Owen Daniel's 1A.

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Here is a post by AdamJT13, a KFFL user who for the last 10 years has been trying to figure out the NFL compensatory picks formula, and has a pretty good track record over that time in predicting what they will be each year.

Some excerpts:

As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.

Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1994, I’ve determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with an adjustment for playing time and a smaller adjustment for postseason honors. It should be noted that the contract value used in the equation does not include some parts of the contract, and that the contract information reported in the media is often incorrect.

Each qualifying player has a value based on his contract, playing time and postseason honors, and that value corresponds to a round in the draft. In the compensatory equation, each qualifying player that a team signs cancels out a qualifying player that the team lost whose value is the highest in the same round. If there are no lost players remaining in that round, the signed player cancels out the lost player whose value is the next-highest. A signed player will cancel out a lost player whose value falls in a higher round only if there are no remaining lost players. After all of a team's qualifying signed players have canceled out a lost player, the team can receive a comp pick for each qualifying player who remains. For example, consider a team that loses one qualifying player whose value falls in the third round and another qualifying player whose value falls in the sixth round but signs a qualifying player whose value falls in the third round. That team would receive a sixth-round comp pick because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the higher-valued player. If the signed player’s value were equal to a fourth-round pick or lower, however, the team would receive a third-round comp pick, because the signed player would cancel out the loss of the lower-valued player.

It is possible for a team to get a compensatory pick even if it doesn’t suffer a net loss of qualifying free agents. That type of comp pick comes at the end of the seventh round, after the normal comp picks and before the non-compensatory picks that are added if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. There have been 14 of these “net value” type of comp picks awarded, and in each case, the combined value of the free agents lost was significantly higher than the combined value of the free agents added. In all 14 cases, those teams lost the same number of qualifying free agents as they signed. No team has been awarded a comp pick after signing more qualifying free agents than it lost, no matter how significant the difference in combined value.

...

Last year [2009], regardless of playing time or postseason honors, the third-round comp players had signed for at least $6.5 million per season, the fourth-round comp players had signed for $4.8 million to $6 million, all but one of the fifth-round comp players had signed for $4 million to $5 million, the sixth-round comp players had signed for $2.7 million to $3.9 million, and the seventh-round comp players had signed for less than $2.65 million per season. Note that there are huge gaps between some rounds, and that there is an overlap between the fourth and fifth rounds because of the adjustments for playing time. You’ll find the contract values for each round of this year’s projected picks in the list a few paragraphs below this one.

He says elsewhere that the amounts seem to grow by the same percent as the salary cap. So the 2009 cap was

$123m, this year it's $120m so the average contract values for this year are likely slightly lower than what is bolded above. That $6.5m might turn out to be $6.3m for a 3rd round compensatory pick for example.

He also mentions not all contract terms count, so this may not be exact. But so far:

Mario, $16m average (6 years, $96m)

Allen $4.1m (2 years, $8.2m)

Brisiel $4m average (5 years, $20m)

Vickers $1.5m average (2 years, $3m)

Haven't heard for Dreessen yet. So not including him, right now the Texans might be looking at extra picks in 2013 at the end of the 3rd for Mario, 2 picks at the end of the 5th for Allen and Brisiel, and a 7th for Vickers.

Dreessen will probably make more than Vickers, and Leinart probably as well, though the limit is 4 picks. Plus I'm sure somewhere along the way Houston will sign someone for depth once the prices come down further. Those could cut into a pick, though I'll be surprised (pleasantly?) if they sign anyone to a high enough price to cut out those 5th round picks for Allen and Brisiel.

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Greg couple of things Vickers will not count because he was cut, not contract expire. Same with leinert.

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Dreessen contract 3yr $8.5m or $2.8m average so possibly a 6th.

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Greg couple of things Vickers will not count because he was cut, not contract expire. Same with leinert.

Yes, good catch.

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