What percentage of top 10 picks make the Pro Bowl? (1 Viewer)

I keep hearing the media draft intelligentsia saying that with a top 10 you should get a Pro Bowl level of player. Obviously that makes some common sense, but is there any historical basis for this expectation? I would expect the top3 or even top 5 have a decent percentage of prospects that eventually make at least one Pro Bowl, but I bet the hit rate on picks 6-10 is pretty low.

Can anyone direct me to any research on this information?

'Wadsworth said:

I keep hearing the media draft intelligentsia saying that with a top 10 you should get a Pro Bowl level of player. Obviously that makes some common sense, but is there any historical basis for this expectation? I would expect the top3 or even top 5 have a decent percentage of prospects that eventually make at least one Pro Bowl, but I bet the hit rate on picks 6-10 is pretty low.Can anyone direct me to any research on this information?

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152 of the 300 top-ten draft picks from 1970 to 1999 made the Pro Bowl. Once you go later than that, obviously players remain active.Of the 50 players from 2000 to 2004, 29 have made a Pro Bowl, with Robert Gallery, Dunta Robinson, Byron Leftwich, David Carr, Quentin Jammer, Gerard Warren, Andre Carter and Plaxico Burress all active. Of the 30 players from '05 to '07, 10 have made the Pro Bowl, but the overwhemling majority of the rest are still active (AJ Hawk, Reggie Bush, Cedric Benson, Michael Huff, Carlos Rogers, Ernie Simms, Laron Landry, Alex Smith, etc.) so that number will likely jump.

Thanks Chase. I have no idea how difficult it is for you to run numbers on this subject, but is it possible to break the number down further like #1 overall, top 3, top 5, 6-10 etc?

'Wadsworth said:

Thanks Chase. I have no idea how difficult it is for you to run numbers on this subject, but is it possible to break the number down further like #1 overall, top 3, top 5, 6-10 etc?

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Percent of players making a Pro Bowl at each pick, 1970-1999 drafts:1 60%

2 53%

3 63%

4 63%

5 47%

6 43%

7 37%

8 50%

9 37%

10 53%

11 27%

12 33%

13 50%

14 30%

15 20%

16 30%

17 17%

18 17%

19 43%

20 40%

'ZWK said:

'Wadsworth said:

Thanks Chase. I have no idea how difficult it is for you to run numbers on this subject, but is it possible to break the number down further like #1 overall, top 3, top 5, 6-10 etc?

Click to expand...

Percent of players making a Pro Bowl at each pick, 1970-1999 drafts:1 60%

2 53%

3 63%

4 63%

5 47%

6 43%

7 37%

8 50%

9 37%

10 53%

Click to expand...

Jags and Panthers are screwed.

'ZWK said:

'Wadsworth said:

Thanks Chase. I have no idea how difficult it is for you to run numbers on this subject, but is it possible to break the number down further like #1 overall, top 3, top 5, 6-10 etc?

Click to expand...

Percent of players making a Pro Bowl at each pick, 1970-1999 drafts:1 60%

2 53%

3 63%

4 63%

5 47%

6 43%

7 37%

8 50%

9 37%

10 53%

11 27%

12 33%

13 50%

14 30%

15 20%

16 30%

17 17%

18 17%

19 43%

20 40%

Click to expand...

Thank goodness for the database gurus. You rock. Thanks.

'Wadsworth said:

'ZWK said:

'Wadsworth said:

Thanks Chase. I have no idea how difficult it is for you to run numbers on this subject, but is it possible to break the number down further like #1 overall, top 3, top 5, 6-10 etc?

Click to expand...

Percent of players making a Pro Bowl at each pick, 1970-1999 drafts:1 60%

2 53%

3 63%

4 63%

5 47%

6 43%

7 37%

8 50%

9 37%

10 53%

11 27%

12 33%

13 50%

14 30%

15 20%

16 30%

17 17%

18 17%

19 43%

20 40%

Click to expand...

Thank goodness for the database gurus. You rock. Thanks.

Click to expand...

The Bears picking at 19 suddenly looks Fawesome!!