snitwitch
Footballguy
Same. And whomever said "don't overthink this" above.
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***David Wilson Bandwagon*** (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Jeff Pasquino
- Start date
i don't understand how anyone can second guess starting him. it's not like the game was 23-21 and he did nothing. he averaged 4.5+ yard per carry. unfortunately, the giants played like crap and he only got 12 carries. would have been nice to get more than 2 receptions, but ... if you bench him next week because of this and he is the starter, you are probably making a mistake. just like you can't judge him off week 14, you can't judge him off week 15 either.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
unfortunately in both leagues I played him in, I wont be playing next week.
steveski
Footballguy
Played him over Sproles. Was hating myself after Sproles scored that early TD. Thankfully he didn't do too much after that and it didn't cost me my matchup.
That being said....Wilson played better than any other Giants player yesterday. When the rest of the team is clicking, I think he'll flourish. Unfortunately, he may not get that chance again until next (fantasy) season. CHOO CHOO.
That being said....Wilson played better than any other Giants player yesterday. When the rest of the team is clicking, I think he'll flourish. Unfortunately, he may not get that chance again until next (fantasy) season. CHOO CHOO.
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
Too bad Gomer and the "Giants" decided to mail it in yesterday. Wilson didn't get much of a chance to finish what he started.
Tough break but I like the kid a lot.
Tough break but I like the kid a lot.
I agree with this. Unfortunately in this game people think they have far more predictive power than they actually have.If you started Wilson over these other comparable RB's:J. Charles (contrarian), you are smarter than 99% of FFootballers.R. Rice (contrarian), you are smarther than 99.999% of FFootballers.DWill (consensus), YOu lose. Go directly to Jail. Do not collect $200.Bryce Brown (coin toss), nice call by the slimmest of margins.Ryan Mathews (coin toss), congrats on your prescient ability to predict injury.K. Moreno (coin toss), YOU REALLY SUCK. McFadden (coin toss), Sorry. No soup for you. Don't you know you should put your FF playoff game in the hands of one of the most unpredictable RB's in the NFL splitting carries with Mike Goodson of all people?Wilson's a good running back prone to the general randomness of weekly play in the NFL. Welcome to fantasy football.'bweiser said:
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Giants GM Jerry Reese said David Wilson could be the Giant's "lead dog" in 2013. He also said he likes how Wilson can go "80, 90 yards on any touch" and "that he could be an explosive player and he could be a weapon in a lot of ways."
FWIW, Reese called Bradshaw the "lead dog" in July of last year, so being called the possible "lead dog" for 2013 is definitely a good sign for David Wilson.
FWIW, Reese called Bradshaw the "lead dog" in July of last year, so being called the possible "lead dog" for 2013 is definitely a good sign for David Wilson.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Too bad Reese isn't the one who adjusts the depth Chart.
Yenrub
Footballguy
True Reese doesn’t set the depth chart but he plays a huge part as to who is competing on it. There is speculation that Bradshaw will not be back next season because of his salary
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I'll believe it when I see it but I agree with the rest.
cmv5
Footballguy
I do definitely have a horse in this race as a Wilson owner. I see this kind of like others do, as a Spiller-Jackson situation part 2. Like Fred Jacskon, there is no questioning that Bradshaw is talented. The thing is, you would be remiss to think Bradshaw escapes a season without missing a few games. The injuries are adding up and I think it is a matter of time before Wilson starts to distance himself from Bradshaw.
I expect the Giants to keep Bradshaw because why would you take a strength of the team and make it an unknown by putting too much on Wilson, too soon? Bradshaw for one more year and if Wilson is the real deal, then dump Bradshaw.
I expect the Giants to keep Bradshaw because why would you take a strength of the team and make it an unknown by putting too much on Wilson, too soon? Bradshaw for one more year and if Wilson is the real deal, then dump Bradshaw.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
I would guess Reese has a pretty huge influence on the depth chart, if not complete control. He called Bradshaw the "lead dog" before training camp of this past season and that's exactly what ended up happening.
eric rymer
Footballguy
netnalp
Footballguy
RB/KR David Wilson set a new mark for Giants rookies with 1,925 all-purpose yards. That total was the most by any Giants player since Tiki Barber's 2,127 in 2006. And how about this: Tampa Bay RB Doug Martin, selected one slot before Wilson, bested him by just one yard. Martin led all NFL rookies with 1,926 total yards this season.
My link
My link
netnalp
Footballguy
It's possible, looking at Reese's drafts he's shown the pattern of drafting players to fill a hole that opens during the following off-season. Ultimately I think they keep Bradshaw but he becomes the 1b or #2 RB.
donkshow
Footballguy
That's what I love.
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Don Quixote
Footballguy
Ahmad Bradshaw cut.Full steam ahead.
jacobo_moses
Footballguy
I'd be more worried about Andre Brown cutting into David Wilson's production if the dude could stay healthy. I've been following career since he got into the league. Brown always has something nagging or hurting. I see at worse Brown taking 6 to 8 touches a game with a few goal line snaps here and there. Just saying is all.
Koya
Footballguy
If the Giants are smart, then they will do their best to not overburden Brown as he has shown some real ability and is quite the complement to Wilson. That said, I wouldn't expect a FEW goal line snaps here and there from Brown but would rather expect Brown to be the goal line and short yardage back. 3rd down back will be who blocks better, imo.Because of that, Wilson's upside may be more limited to other speed backs (going back a ways, think Robert Smith) with lots of yards, some big games, but more or less limited touchdowns. Could see 1500-2000 yards from scrimmage if things go right, but 4-6 TDs as a high ceiling. While that looks great (and is pretty darn good), it's far from the elite backs which get 12+ and even 15+ TDs.
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jacobo_moses
Footballguy
It could be said though. That REC TD's are hard to predict. And in my 32 team Dyn league. The no 7 RB in my league was CJ Spiller who only had 6 Rushing TD's. I could see Wilson putting up numbers similar to Spiller. Wouldn't surprise me in the least. Don't forget that if Wilson improves in Pass Pro a lot this year. If Brown goes down, Wilson will get more the 3rd down RB snaps. Don't count that out.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
From what I watched last year Brown > Bradshaw> Wilson.. I wouldn't draft Wilson too high because of Brown
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netnalp
Footballguy
The Giants have also struggled to get touchdowns while in the redzone. That would limit Brown. That's why their kicker has been such a great fantasy squad kicker.
jacobo_moses
Footballguy
I will just quote Waldman on this again, "Clearly, his upside is greater than the grades I have given him, and he is a potential feature back if he shores up his weaknesses. I do not know if there is a better pure athlete as a runner in this draft other than Trent Richardson – and Wilson probably has better speed and lateral agility." This was from the RSP before the Draft last year. I think Wilson will be fine.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I think we are looking at a Lesean McCoy / Ray Rice type of career arc here. Not much year one, then bam.
Koya
Footballguy
My question is usage. McCoy never got enough carries, but he got a ton of work through the air in that system. Rice became THE guy, a three down back for the most part and goal line carries.At the least, there is a big question as to Brown's role now and the tendency of Coughlin to have a thunder and lightning approach, which would seriously cut into Wilson's ability to become an elite fantasy back due to lack of TDs.
jacobo_moses
Footballguy
I think the same could be said about other teams who have a 2 RB system that still produce. Look at CJ SPiller and Fred Jackson and how they are used. Wilson can still put up Low RB1/High Rb2 numbers on any given week. I think that is how fantasy owners need to view him. With how explosive he is, he can take it to the house anytime. So you value and plan accordingly. Just give it time fellas. They didn't let Bradshaw go just cause of money and their faith in Brown (staying healthy). They have their reasons. And as a Wilson Dyn owner I for one am excited to see what he can do.
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gianmarco
Footballguy
Where does this myth come from? It's simply not true.Tom Coughlin has been the coach of the NYG since 2004. We have 9 years worth of history to show what he likes to do.'Koya said:
2004 -- Barber 322 carries
2005 -- Barber 357 carries
2006 -- Barber 327 carries
2007 -- Jacobs 202 carries (only 11 games) -- on pace for 293 carries
2008 -- Jacobs 219 carries (only 13 games) -- on pace for 270 carries
2009 -- Jacobs 224 carries (only 14 games) -- on pace for 249 carries
2010 -- Bradshaw 276 carries
2011 -- Bradshaw 171 carries
2012 -- Bradshaw 221 carries (only 14 games) -- on pace for 252 carries
So, Jacobs did not play a full season when he was finally named the starter and was "splitting" with Bradshaw. With the exception of 2011, when Jacobs and Bradshaw both had 150-170 carries, the lead back has had or was on pace aside from injury to have 250 carries in 8 of the 9 years. In 5 of the 9 years, the lead back was at 270+ carries for the year.
Coughlin doesn't have a tendency to have this "thunder and lightning" approach. In fact, the 2nd back has almost always had 150 carries or less (a few times under 100 carries).
Can we please stop with this myth. If anything, Coughlin actually commits to a lead RB more than most coaches, especially since he's done it with Tiki, Jacobs, and Bradshaw (3 different guys) so it's not as if he did it preferentially with just one RB.
ETA--And for those concerned about Wilson's size, since I've seen that mentioned:
Tiki Barber -- 5'10, 205 lbs
David Wilson -- 5'10, 206 lbs
A. Bradshaw -- 5'10, 214 lbs
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biggamer3
Footballguy
Great stuff man
TheFanatic
Footballguy
This is absolutely sound reasoning. I completely agree that historically that is a myth.But the NFL is a different league now. Its a two back league now
gianmarco
Footballguy
The NFL may be moving more toward a timeshare (although I'm not convinced that's the case if we were to actually look at the numbers which I may do). But Coughlin doesn't seem to have changed his approach. When he has a starting RB, that guy is usually getting 15+ carries in a game. Even not fully healthy all year, Bradshaw had 7 games over 15 carries (4 of those over 20 carries). When Brown came in for Bradshaw after his injury in week 2, he finished with 13 carries that game and then 20 carries the next. When Wilson played in the last 4 games of the year, he had 12, 13, and 15 carries in 3 of those games. The lead RB for Coughlin is almost guaranteed 15-16 carries in a game (250 carries/yr). That's more than enough to very fantasy relevant especially when you add in the passing game, which their RBs are often involved in.
If you're looking for a team that hasn't changed along with the NFL and has remained consistent in their running game approach, the NYG are it.
netnalp
Footballguy
Also it wasn't only just injuries that limited Jacobs and Bradshaw. They both had horrendous bouts with fumbling and that put each into the dog house at different times, losing the starting job to the other.I've read comments elsewhere too about Wilson being small and he isn't for a RB. Several years ago I read an article how the smaller RBs 5'10" 200-215lb area have longer careers than the 6' 225-250Lb RBs types. The article speculated that larger RBs are a bigger target, may run more upright and defenders may choose to tackle them lower than they do smaller RBs resulting in more knee/ankle injuries.
It won't be a given that Wilson gets pulled in the redzone and short yardage. He showed in his brief work last year that he can effectively lower his shoulder and take on defenders. I think Wilson is better suited for the shotgun draw which is a favorite audible of Eli's.
netnalp
Footballguy
Also last year in garbage time, rather than resting Bradshaw they ran him into the ground two games in a row. Since they were killing the clock they could have used Wilson more or if worried he'd fumble, let Hynoski runt he ball with Pascoe at FB. Maybe they were putting Bradshaw's foot to the test at that time. I think he started having issues shortly after those two heavy workload games.
gianmarco
Footballguy
I just went through the data dominator. Here is what I found ( a couple I tweaked if they were within 5 carries):2012 -- 15 RBs with 250 carries or more (Forte at 246, but I counted him)
2011 -- 14 RBs with 245 carries or more
2010 -- 11 RBs with 250 carries or more
2009 -- 10 RBs with 245 carries or more
2008 -- 13 RBs with 250 carries or more
2007 -- 13 RBs with 245 carries or more
2006 -- 18 RBs with 245 carries or more
2005 -- 17 RBs with 250 carries or more
2004 -- 17 RBs with 250 carries or more
2003 -- 16 RBs with 250 carries or more
2002 -- 19 RBs with 250 carries or more
Now, the question is, are we seeing this slight decrease because of the increase in passing attempts or because a 2nd RB is taking away carries. It may be a little of both, but in the end, there are still quite a number of lead RBs that get the majority of the carries and by and large it's the talented backs on teams that commit to them. The NYG would fall in that category.
netnalp
Footballguy
I think the Giants will put a lot of focus on the running game. They run an offense that depends on the running game so they can play action and throw the ball deep. They got one SB win with a poor running game but they can't rely on that each year. They need to get the running game going so the defenses have to play the pass and run.
Koya
Footballguy
I see this less as the number of carries and more about the roles. Once again, the issue to me is not touches overall, but rather TDs. And Coughlin always seemed to lean to the bigger back for that role - even Jacobs, who was not that good at it, despite his size.
Koya
Footballguy
I don't see how your viewpoint differs with my main point - namely that Wilson is likely to be VERY fantasy relevant, with two major issues.1. Goal Line Carries - Unless my eyes over the past few years have been mistaken, Coughlin seems to bring someone in for GL's and that could very well be Brown
2. A Brown in general as he has shown (of course, when healthy, which isn't often) some real skill, so I'd have to think that's some threat or limit to Wilsons upside.
Regardless, no one is saying Wilson won't have relevancy... but unless he gets all those goal line looks, elite is going to be very hard if not impossible to reach.
Dippa
Footballguy
These are definitely some concerns I have as a Wilson owner, but Wilson has already shown an ability to score TDs without the goal-line carries. He had 5 rush/rec TDs in just 75 touches last year, and his 5 TDs came from 40, 6, 52, 14, and 15 yards out. Also, the Giants RBs have scored 19 TDs each of the last 2 years, so even if Brown vultures a few on the goalline, there still could be plenty of opportunities in that offense.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Once again, I'm going to disagree here. Sure, some RBs are considered elite because of the number of TDs they score (Foster, AP, LT). But that's not the case for all RBs. In fact, many have been labeled "elite" without anything close to those TD totals nor getting all the goal line looks. Not only that, they still ended up scoring quite well without the big TD totals. Here are just a few recent examples over the last 3 years or so.--Jamaal Charles has a career high of 7 rushing TDs in a season. In 2010, his breakout year, he had 230/1467/5. He was considered elite after that year (and still is). He also added 45/468/3 in the receiving game (RB7 in ppg that year)--McCoy had one huge year of rushing TDs with 17 in 2011. But in 2010, same year as Charles, he had 207/1080/7 while adding 78/592/2 in the air. Now, he was used in all facets, but he was considered elite without the big TD totals after 2010 (RB3 in ppg that year)--DMC had a big year in 2010 as well with 223/1157/7 while adding 47/507/3 in the air. Again, his value skyrocketed after that year without big TD totals (RB2 in ppg that year)--Ray Rice had his breakout in 2009 with 254/1339/7 along with 78/702/1 in the air. He followed that up with 308/1223/5 along with 63/556/1 in the air in 2010. He was definitely elite after those years without big TD totals. --Frank Gore has had 10 rushing TDs only once in 8 years. The rest of his career he's had 8 TDs or less. --CJ Spiller is currently valued very highly after this past year. He finished with 207/1244/6 while adding 43/459/2 in the air. Certainly not a goal line RB but that didn't affect his overall fantasy production or value.In other words, unless you're expecting Wilson to score only 3 or 4 times with a decent carry load, whether or not he's used at the goal line on a regular basis is not as important as you're making it seem in order to hit elite status. More important to that value will be his involvement in the passing game. These guys all had modest TD totals (even if they were involved at the goal line). What they added were significant combined yardage and extensive use as a receiver.I'd say a bigger concern for Wilson is whether or not he'll be used that way. I think he'll do just fine in that department based on watching the NYG offense over the last few years.. During Bradshaw's biggest usage year in 2010 when he had 276 carries, he also had 47 receptions to go along with it. Barber regularly got 50-60 receptions/year. In 2008, D. Ward had 41 receptions. Jacobs was never a good receiver so using his time as a starter doesn't help.If Wilson ends up with 250 carries and 40 receptions per year at some point, then whether or not he's used at the goal line will be irrelevant as long as he's producing yardage with those touches. I'd much rather he be involved in the passing game than at the goal line in terms of his prospects of ever hitting elite status for fantasy purposes. Of course, this is for PPR leagues, but since that's what most of us are involved in, this is what my discussion is based on. Considering he scored 5 TDs on 75 total touches during his rookie year, I'd feel quite comfortable with him hitting similar TD totals as these other guys.
jacobo_moses
Footballguy
'gianmarco said:
Tanner9919
Footballguy
this is a great reply!
not only are there enough TD's to go around, but as your stats seem to indicate, Wilson can hit a TD from anywhere on the field..
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Actually it took Rice a number of years to get GL carries. McGahee and the FBs (McClain, etc.) were used in that role up until last season.'Koya said:
zamboni
Footballguy
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/7448/david-wilsonSounds like motivation for Wilson so that he does not assume the job is his, but it seems a given that Brown is going to eat into Wilson's production.
Horses Mouth
Footballguy
I have to decide between him and Chris Johnson at the same value.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
That is an easy decision
