Basically, what it comes down to with Wilson is that there is essentially no model for him.
Football Outsiders has come up with the
Levin Career Forecast for college QBs, and it ranks Wilson higher than any college QB ever. It is clearly a questionable system, but that is still an interesting result. The article points out:
Quarterbacks who are Wilson's height simply don't get drafted in the first three rounds of the draft, period. The FO master database only includes three quarterbacks who are below six feet tall: Seneca Wallace, Joe Hamilton, and Flutie. That's a fourth-round pick, a seventh-round pick, and an 11th round pick from 25 years ago. Even if we go all the way back to 1991, the only quarterbacks taken in the first six rounds at 6-foot-0 or shorter were Vick, Brees, Wallace, Joe Germaine (fourth round, 1999), and Troy Smith (fifth round, 2007).
Among these players, only Vick, Brees, and Wilson were taken before the fourth round of the draft; the others were recognized to be deficient in areas other than just height. Wilson was a better college passer than any of those players, including Vick, Brees, and Flutie (Heisman does not equate to being a better passer).Furthermore, some of these players did not play in a pro set and/or played in a run heavy offense. Not true for Wilson. And the shorter players among this group likely had lower release points than Wilson does.
On top of that, all of his intangibles are off the chart: leadership, work ethic, character, intelligence, etc. Not that these other players were necessarily bad guys or whatever, but Wilson would score 100 out of 100 on an intangibles assessment, as good as it can possibly get.
I'm not saying Wilson will be a star in the NFL.
But I think the problem is that in trying to categorize him, many are failing to recognize that he is nearly unique. I think he is an intriguing dynasty player, and I'm hoping to draft him and stash him for a while.