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ImTheScientist

***Russell Wilson Bandwagon***

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1 hour ago, Ray Barboni said:

Will one of you Seattle homers start a period of some sort? Get Schneider(so)/Carrol to finally get this elite QB an offensive line?

Thanks.

i won't take in any part of the "elite vs non elite" argument ... because it's silly. Of course he is elite. Watch a game.

Put the truelly "elite" behind that o-line, with questionable weapons? Brady, Rodgers would be on IR.

Russ doesn't have to improvise, he does it because he has to.  

Again, this concept of "elite" is silly. Really, cut it out. 

Wilson is not the best. He's not close to the best. Some aspects of his game are phenomenal (Leadership, throwing on the run, touch on the deep ball, keeping his eyes down field when leaving the pocket). Some are substandard (Pre-snap reads, throwing in rhythm when that back foot hits the ground, footwork fundamentals in the pocket). Many of the protection issue are Wilson's fault. Ever see one of his 7-step drops? It's more like a 17 step drop way too often. Try being an offensive tackle in that situation. And no, its not always because the middle of the line is getting blown up.  When you deal with outside speed rush there's no way to know that you can take a DE deep enough because Wilson tends to drop too far. Also, Wilson has a problem dropping his eyes when he's in a clean pocket. The eyes drop and he starts to look for an escape route instead of going through his progressions. The reality is that they are decent at pass blocking (not so much in the run game), but Wilson's creating a lot of the pressure by holding the ball too long and at times scrambling INTO the pressure. I will admit that RT Ifedi was sadly lacking in all aspects of his game. His penalty numbers are a huge embarrassment. However, The coaching staff will likely hope he matures given a full year starting at tackle. We'll see there. 

Don't get me wrong. I'm a Seattle homer that loves having Wilson for multiple reasons, but I'm not so blind that I can't see the things that he does poorly. He's far from perfect. And it has nothing to do with his height. That's a giant red herring. 6'3" quarterbacks can't see over their line either. It's all about throwing lanes. No, the eyes of a  6'5"  quarterback are lower than the tops of his 6'6" lineman's helmets as well. 

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17 hours ago, Hooper31 said:

Understood. A "great" QB might be ranked #15 in your opinion. That clears things up. 

Alright, I'll bite. 

My thought process is this: Wilson is coming off where most QBs achieve their peek in their career/reach their peek. You know what you get with him at this point, and IMO it's not worthy of being discussed in the same breath as Rodgers, Brady, etc. There are a lot of young up and coming QBs in the league that have a brighter future than Wilson. Are they better than him now? No. But, Wilson is likely not going to get astronomically better over the next however many years he wants to play. One example: I was laughed when I mentioned Goff. Goff's statistics this year, his first full season and second year in the league, are pretty close with what Wilson had his second year. So if you were pumped about Wilson following the 2013 season, I don't know how you can scoff at Goff. 

What makes Wilson a very talented QB is his ability to run. Most successful QBs in the league have decent feet which allow them to keep defenses honest as well as extend plays. He is going to start to lose that ability to some degree (not soon, but sooner rather than later), which will force him to become a more pocket QB. That's not necessarily his biggest strength, although there are much worse QBs who do it. 

As far as redraft fantasy football, no Wilson isn't my 15th best QB, he's probably more likely near 8-10 for me. However, if I'm in a dynasty league I like a lot of QBs better than Wilson (Goff being one of them), and yes he probably drops down further in dynasty for me. Would I draft Mariota over Wilson? No. But I may pass on Wilson and grab a QB I like equally as good or better later. 

In real life, yes Wilson is a franchise QB. He's very good. If we don't want to use the term Elite then let's talk tiers. Wilson is not in the top tier:

10th in QB rating (Goff was 5)
9th in passing yards (Goff 10th)
1st in TDs (Goff 5)
16th worst in INTs (Goff 24th)

This was in a year where he had to throw the most he ever has. Most "top tier" QBs when asked to do it all, do better and put up better statistics than when they are asked to do some of it and rely on a balanced attack. 

So he threw a lot of TDs this year... Well I'd expect that given he threw for a career high attempts and had zero OL or running game, and was on a decent team. To call him elite, or top tier, with those statistics... Tom Brady is top 5 in all of those categories. Wentz is as well minus total yards but considering he missed 3.5 games I think we can cut him a break (If he had played a full 16 games and kept up with his averages he'd be flirting with top 5). Even Matthew Stafford had a better statistical year than Wilson. And I like Wilson way more than Stafford... but it's a similar team make up- good defense, bad rushing attack, bad OL, need to pass a lot. 

I'm not saying he's a Chad Pennington. I'm just saying he's not in the same tier as Rodgers, Brady, Brees. Russell Wilson is more in that second tier with the Matt Ryan's, which is fine- that's not a bad crowd to be in, but he's not in the same breath of some of the greatest of all time. We can agree to disagree I suppose.
 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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18 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I'm just saying...

No you're not "saying". You said 12 to 15. Just own it or retract it.  Why go into all this detail on Goff? Are you going to waste all that time making some similar argument about 13 other quarterbacks as well? Wait, strike that. No need for Brady, Brees, and Rodgers. That leaves 10 more detailed arguments left to go. Why bother?

You stuck yourself out there saying something silly. Why bother taking the time trying to defend it? Have I ever engaged in hyperbole before? Sure. I'm not immune either. Let's just let it go. 

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37 minutes ago, Hooper31 said:

No you're not "saying". You said 12 to 15. Just own it or retract it.  Why go into all this detail on Goff? Are you going to waste all that time making some similar argument about 13 other quarterbacks as well? Wait, strike that. No need for Brady, Brees, and Rodgers. That leaves 10 more detailed arguments left to go. Why bother?

You stuck yourself out there saying something silly. Why bother taking the time trying to defend it? Have I ever engaged in hyperbole before? Sure. I'm not immune either. Let's just let it go. 

Not getting into a pissing match. I was explaining I was talking about dynasty when I said 12-15. I stand by that. There are 12 QBs in dynasty I would take over Wilson, yes. What I mean by that is not that I would draft one of them in the same spot as Wilson, but rather I would prefer someone just as much if not more who I could get maybe later, maybe earlier than where Wilson would go. In redraft, no. If that's not a good enough explanation, then oh well. No skin off my back.

I mention Goff because "The General" scoffed at me even mentioning him. He said "Sorry. Not even close." When statistics say otherwise. I could certainly make a case for the other QBs I mentioned if you would like me to. I would need more time however because work is busy.

Wilson had his time in the top 3, 5 discussion, and that time has passed. I'm sorry if homers can't recognize it. But good luck next season and so on. 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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32 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Not getting into a pissing match. I was explaining I was talking about dynasty when I said 12-15. I stand by that. There are 12 QBs in dynasty I would take over Wilson, yes. What I mean by that is not that I would draft one of them in the same spot as Wilson, but rather I would prefer someone just as much if not more who I could get maybe later, maybe earlier than where Wilson would go. In redraft, no. If that's not a good enough explanation, then oh well. No skin off my back.

I mention Goff because "The General" scoffed at me even mentioning him. He said "Sorry. Not even close." When statistics say otherwise. I could certainly make a case for the other QBs I mentioned if you would like me to. I would need more time however because work is busy.

Wilson had his time in the top 3, 5 discussion, and that time has passed. I'm sorry if homers can't recognize it. But good luck next season and so on. 

Dynasty? Redraft?

You're talking fantasy football? For ####s sake...You'll be hard pressed to find a league where Wilson wasn't the #1 scoring QB in fantasy this season. Dude's not even 30 years old yet. He just led the league in passing TDs.

 

WTabsoluteF?

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Just now, Hooper31 said:

Dynasty? Redraft?

You're talking fantasy football? For ####s sake...You'll be hard pressed to find a league where Wilson wasn't the #1 scoring QB in fantasy this season. Dude's not even 30 years old yet. He just led the league in passing TDs.

 

WTabsoluteF?

:goodposting: 

I don't know if @Dr. Dan realizes that he is all over the map in this tangent of discussion.

In this post, I quoted him as talking about starting an NFL franchise, which is obviously real football discussion, not fantasy football. In this post, I quoted him calling Wilson an average to above average QB. He never responded to either of those posts, although more recently he admitted Wilson is "great/good" and then went on to post that Wilson is in the second tier of QBs after Brady, Rodgers, and Brees.

Then he claimed he has been talking about fantasy football all along and stated he would rather have 12-15 other QBs in dynasty fantasy football. :crazy: 

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4 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

:goodposting: 

I don't know if @Dr. Dan realizes that he is all over the map in this tangent of discussion.

In this post, I quoted him as talking about starting an NFL franchise, which is obviously real football discussion, not fantasy football. In this post, I quoted him calling Wilson an average to above average QB. He never responded to either of those posts, although more recently he admitted Wilson is "great/good" and then went on to post that Wilson is in the second tier of QBs after Brady, Rodgers, and Brees.

Then he claimed he has been talking about fantasy football all along and stated he would rather have 12-15 other QBs in dynasty fantasy football. :crazy: 

Reminds me of this scene

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22 minutes ago, The General said:

Step right up & win some crap! 

 

a classic.

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The only "Wagon" Russel needs is the one that will be taking him to the locker room. Russel has seen his team fall apart around him more and more each year, and this summer will see some big pieces on the defense that kept them in games leave. He will try to do too much and get killed this year. 

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Anybody concerned about him this year? Once again the offensive line is a mess, they have a new coordinator that likes to run the ball, he lost graham and Richardson, and the team is falling apart around him not to mention Baldwin out for all of camp and who knows how effective he’ll be when he plays. In dynasty is it maybe time to entertain thoughts of seeing what you can get for him and in redraft should he still be a top 5 QB?

the situation around him concerns me more than he himself actually does but color me concerned

Edited by finfansteve
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7 hours ago, finfansteve said:

Anybody concerned about him this year? Once again the offensive line is a mess, they have a new coordinator that likes to run the ball, he lost graham and Richardson, and the team is falling apart around him not to mention Baldwin out for all of camp and who knows how effective he’ll be when he plays. In dynasty is it maybe time to entertain thoughts of seeing what you can get for him and in redraft should he still be a top 5 QB?

the situation around him concerns me more than he himself actually does but color me concerned

Not concerned. He IS the offense.

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11 hours ago, finfansteve said:

Anybody concerned about him this year? Once again the offensive line is a mess, they have a new coordinator that likes to run the ball, he lost graham and Richardson, and the team is falling apart around him not to mention Baldwin out for all of camp and who knows how effective he’ll be when he plays. In dynasty is it maybe time to entertain thoughts of seeing what you can get for him and in redraft should he still be a top 5 QB?

the situation around him concerns me more than he himself actually does but color me concerned

Absolutely.  He’s one of my favorite players in the league and been on a lot of my teams over the years, but I doubt I roster him this season.  Zero play makers on that offense and with no Graham, the red zone offense could go from awful to historically bad.  Bringing in Schottenheimer just feels like a bad, bad move.  I live in San Diego, and local Aztec fans were hoping Penny would go in the 2nd round.  Just a huge reach with so many other needs.  

I think Wilson is a top 10 player in all of football, but I’m not buying his stock in 2018.  

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It doesn't seem that bad to me. The offensive line is definitely bad, but at least they locked up Duane Brown long term and I wouldn't say the offense is devoid of playmakers. Lockett should be fully healed up this year and is (IMO) a better player than Richardson. I've never been a huge Graham fan so I think Marshall should fill in for him just fine. It would be great for Wilson to finally have some balance in the offense, so getting back a healthy Carson and Prosise to go with Penny will be a benefit to him.

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6 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

I've never been a huge Graham fan

Never?

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I love the guy. If he stays healthy he might run more and garbage time sling it more. He might not reach his 2018 passing tds but im thinking he’s close in passing yards and better in rushing yards and Tds. Staying healthy is a big worry though because he probably won’t.

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2 minutes ago, -fish- said:

This is just stupid.   Their O-line is pathetic and gets called for a ton of penalties.   Without Wilson trying to make plays, they wouldn't be able to make any progress down the field.   

He should relax and slow the game down; let it come to him instead of forcing the issue. 

And subsequently get slaughtered behind that line.  

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He looks a little shell shocked to me. He is a small guy and I think he has taken too many hits in his career. His rushing yards are way down so far and he looks a little slower and less willing to run.

This is coming from one of his biggest fans. It doesn't help they give him no weapons to work with and the worst Offensive Coordinator in the league.

Edited by gradin123

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4 hours ago, -fish- said:

This is just stupid.   Their O-line is pathetic and gets called for a ton of penalties.   Without Wilson trying to make plays, they wouldn't be able to make any progress down the field.   

Without Wilson over trying, they are Buffalo.

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....and to think I was feeling so good to have a set-it-and-forget-it surefire elite QB1.

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1 hour ago, Skoo said:

....and to think I was feeling so good to have a set-it-and-forget-it surefire elite QB1.

Admittedly, I'm a little nervous myself. It's easy to rely on a few crutches, like "Baldwin's return should help revitalize the offense" and "Wilson was very mediocre Week 1 and Week 2 last year before going on to easily claim the #1 QB spot in fantasy," but the Schottenheimer hire earlier this year changes the dynamic, and not in a positive way. We can't rely on last year as a template for how things might go this year, because Schottenheimer is truly a bottom of the barrel offensive coordinator and play caller and that's showing through Week 3.

Wilson has shown he can do it all himself, but I think we're in for a rough year this year.

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Schottenheimer has had a significant negative effect on Wilson, and there is (or at least was) a power struggle going on between him and Wilson. In week 2, there was a point where Wilson was hot, and he checked out of a play, with a successful result. On the next play, Wilson walked to the line and checked out of the play call, at which point Carroll called timeout before the ball was snapped. Wilson was visibly agitated, giving a WTF gesture to the sideline as he walked over. There were posts about this with more depth on other sites, but the bottom line is that it seems like Carroll and Schottenheimer are trying to force Wilson to play a certain way and limit his audibles and ad-libbing. I don't see how that can be a positive for Wilson from a fantasy perspective.

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Are people cutting him? Feels like a tough situation as he was a high pick but he's been brutal. 

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Just now, Hilts said:

Are people cutting him? Feels like a tough situation as he was a high pick but he's been brutal. 

He was cut in my 10-teamer. I was a bit surprised and would love to add him as a stash since he’s a notoriously slow starter, but I have Watson and Goff. I fully expect him to be claimed tomorrow. 

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I’d hold and just make him ur RB2 if possible.  Nice stretch of matchups after the bye until fantasy playoffs start

 

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Holding but he has poor history against Rams. Wondering if I pick up Bortles Carr or Smith to stream this week.

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1 hour ago, CanaBuc said:

Holding but he has poor history against Rams. Wondering if I pick up Bortles Carr or Smith to stream this week.

FWIW I picked up Smith today to play him this week. If Bortles was available I'd definitely snag him first though. Great matchup against KC this week, might end up starting for you weekly too.

Edited by Skoo

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KC looked bad against Denver run game and Arrowhead is a tough stadium for quarterback. Worried if Jax defense can contain mahomes Bortles won't be asked to throw much. 

New Orleans defense last against passyet good run defense and high powered offense. Smith coming off bye think could go pass heavy against new Orleans. He also has good matchups for Wilson's bye and next Rams game too. 

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Baldwin is getting back up to speed after a few weeks to heal his knee, and the Hawks have gotten their ground game going.  At home this week in a game that will likely be a shootout.  Offense that typically starts out slowly for whatever reason.  I expect the training wheels are gonna come off this week.  I think he was a little overdrafted but I'd be really surprised if he's not a solid QB1 ROS.

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1 hour ago, Kwai Chang Caine said:

Cut for Bortels and Flacco. I'm stunned typing this.

I can't bring myself to cut him, but he's on my bench for these two each week going forward. 

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1 hour ago, Kwai Chang Caine said:

Cut for Bortels and Flacco. I'm stunned typing this.

Dude you’re nucking futs! Bortles and Flacco over Wilson? Wilson always starts slow but he’s proven year after year to be a top 5 QB in fantasy. 

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7 minutes ago, Charlie Harper said:

I keep going to this thread for weekly support. Short bench league and have been waiting for Wilson or Luck to pull ahead so I can cut one.

I have the same QBs and have picked the wrong one every week so far.

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6 hours ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

Dude you’re nucking futs! Bortles and Flacco over Wilson? Wilson always starts slow but he’s proven year after year to be a top 5 QB in fantasy. 

With the way QBs can be streamed these days what's the sense of keeping him? Team stinks and the Rams own him and that's before they were the team to beat. I don't care of he starts slow. Right now he's ranked 20th at QB. 20th. He's already caused one of my teams to tank early. And in my main I legaue I just cut him, I've got Winston coming after next week and am 3-1 because of Fitzmagic. 

Im not waiting to hit the iceberg.

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Quote

Russell Wilson (hamstring) is practicing in full for Week 5 against the Rams.

Wilson was also listed in Week 3 with his the same injury. It's not a concern to his playing status, but hamstring issues can linger. Wilson has a shy-away matchup with the Rams in Week 5.

Source: Bob Condotta on Twitter 

Oct 3 - 7:34 PM

 

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9 hours ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

Dude you’re nucking futs! Bortles and Flacco over Wilson? Wilson always starts slow but he’s proven year after year to be a top 5 QB in fantasy. 

I think those two have to be ranked higher than Wilson for the next few weeks at least.

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1 minute ago, Hilts said:

I think those two have to be ranked higher than Wilson for the next few weeks at least.

Why is that?  Baldwin is back, Wilson is trending up and has a home divisional game this weekend.  I think he's gonna blow up this weekend.

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2 minutes ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

Why is that?  Baldwin is back, Wilson is trending up and has a home divisional game this weekend.  I think he's gonna blow up this weekend.

Trending up? Was it his 172 yards last week that makes you think that?

What makes you think he's going to blow up this weekend other than it being a home divisional game? And what defines a blowup for you?

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Just now, Hilts said:

Trending up? Was it his 172 yards last week that makes you think that?

What makes you think he's going to blow up this weekend other than it being a home divisional game? And what defines a blowup for you?

I'm expecting about 350+ total yards and 4 tuddys, hopefully 1 of the rushing variety.  He's a proven stud QB that has always had little to work with at WR.  He'll figure it out.  Rams lost Talib and Cousins went blow for blow with them last week.  Wilson is a gamer.

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Not sure about Wilson necessarily but I think Baldwin eats this weekend.  He should be able to do some serious damage from the slot a la Thielen last week.

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11 hours ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

I'm expecting about 350+ total yards and 4 tuddys, hopefully 1 of the rushing variety.  He's a proven stud QB that has always had little to work with at WR.  He'll figure it out.  Rams lost Talib and Cousins went blow for blow with them last week.  Wilson is a gamer.

How many total points do you expect them to score, and what do you expect the Rams will put up? 

And since this started from a comparison to Flacco and Bortles, what are you expecting from them? 

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43 minutes ago, Hilts said:

How many total points do you expect them to score, and what do you expect the Rams will put up? 

And since this started from a comparison to Flacco and Bortles, what are you expecting from them? 

I have no answers for you on Flacco and Bortles as I do not own either and have not/will not spend an ounce of energy trying to predict what they will do. I do, however, have Wilson in several leagues and i believe in his game.  I'm also big on mean regression and basically view the nfl season from above the trees. I don't try to get super granular by predicting an entire game script and score from week to week - I look at players productivity in chunks (several games at a time). I think going through that exercise of trying to predict an entire game script and likely outcomes is a complete waste of time.  The NFL is way too random and usually the outcomes don't follow what probability predicts. 

I'm taking a VERY general approach to my predictions for Wilson this week.  And that approach is essentially what I spelled out above and will outline again below.  I've found that over analyzing the NFL can be paralyzing.  Deep analysis is good in some facets of FF, like off-season prep and rookie evaluations but for the most part once the season begins simple analysis is usually best in FF (at least that's the conclusion I've arrived at after 25 years of doing this hobby).  I feel like the more info I know and rely on typically makes me worse at predicting outcomes.  

  • Wilson is a gamer and playing a divisional game at home
  • Baldwin is now healthy, playing his 2nd game in a row
  • SEA has a weak running game, so I expect Wilson to be the focal point of the offense and anything good done offensively will be a result of Wilson's play
  • Rams defense lost one of their top DBs and just got lit up by the Vikings
  • Rams can also put up points in bunches and I don't expect this to be a lop-sided outcome (meaning I expect SEA to keep up with the Rams)

That's my position of Wilson for THIS WEEK in a nutshell.  I accept paypal or venmo.

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