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The upcoming IPO has got to be the biggest IPO since Google. Does anyone think it makes sense to buy retail at the opening bell and then sell later in the day when it shoots up? Anyone have a history studying IPO's?

I'm considering making a move that day, but I know you can get burnt bigtime on IPO's.

But it's facebook. You have to think the retail investor is going to be going nuts for this thing.

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The upcoming IPO has got to be the biggest IPO since Google. Does anyone think it makes sense to buy retail at the opening bell and then sell later in the day when it shoots up? Anyone have a history studying IPO's?I'm considering making a move that day, but I know you can get burnt bigtime on IPO's. But it's facebook. You have to think the retail investor is going to be going nuts for this thing.

the opening price is going to be $28-35.but the first price available to the retail investor could be as high as $70how much money do you think you can make in the short term after it is marked up 100%?

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No, it is overvalued.

Gotta bring more to the table than that. Same thing was said about Google.

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No, it is overvalued.

Gotta bring more to the table than that. Same thing was said about Google.
If I would've been someone interested in stocks and business back when Google had their IPO I would've been a buyer because I know the value of a good search engine and the profit potential it had. Google was a big improvement in the internet.I would've said the same about Facebook 5 years ago.But i feel like facebook peaked when the Social Network movie came out.Do i still log in? yes. Am i disappointed more and more every time i log in? yes.

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:techbubble:

between pandora, zillow, yelp, groupon, facebook, zynga, linked in and others i can't think of right now.. it does feel like it.Facebook is the strongest of that group by far... the others don't feel like they will be around in 10 years... groupon and pandora seem the worst of breed.

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The upcoming IPO has got to be the biggest IPO since Google. Does anyone think it makes sense to buy retail at the opening bell and then sell later in the day when it shoots up? Anyone have a history studying IPO's?I'm considering making a move that day, but I know you can get burnt bigtime on IPO's. But it's facebook. You have to think the retail investor is going to be going nuts for this thing.

the opening price is going to be $28-35.but the first price available to the retail investor could be as high as $70how much money do you think you can make in the short term after it is marked up 100%?
30 bucks per share? Part of me thinks everybody and their brother is going to login to their etrade account and buy facebook stock, as everyone will want some. Even if its just to then go to facebook and brag that they bought it.If I buy at 70 and sell at 100 within a couple hours, thats the easiest profit ever.But I do agree that it is overvalued, and will start heading down soon after.Or it could be a google/apple and we'll all rue the day we could have bought it for 70 bucks.

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:techbubble:

that doesn't mean there isn't money to be made.
Oh I agree. Now is probably the time to get in because the bubbling is just starting. Everything I'm reading is screaming tech bubble to me.

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The upcoming IPO has got to be the biggest IPO since Google. Does anyone think it makes sense to buy retail at the opening bell and then sell later in the day when it shoots up? Anyone have a history studying IPO's?

I'm considering making a move that day, but I know you can get burnt bigtime on IPO's.

But it's facebook. You have to think the retail investor is going to be going nuts for this thing.

the opening price is going to be $28-35.

but the first price available to the retail investor could be as high as $70

how much money do you think you can make in the short term after it is marked up 100%?

30 bucks per share? Part of me thinks everybody and their brother is going to login to their etrade account and buy facebook stock, as everyone will want some. Even if its just to then go to facebook and brag that they bought it.

If I buy at 70 and sell at 100 within a couple hours, thats the easiest profit ever.

But I do agree that it is overvalued, and will start heading down soon after.

Or it could be a google/apple and we'll all rue the day we could have bought it for 70 bucks.

I don't think Facebook has a big enough cult following to get the Apple affect on their stock.

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No, it is overvalued.

Gotta bring more to the table than that. Same thing was said about Google.
I don't think Facebook is going to be able to develop the omnipresent ad serving infrastructure Google has. Getting people to interact with businesses directly through Facebook seems like their big growth engine, but I don't really see a compelling reason for most to use it. Depending on revenue from companies like Zynga is not a long term strategy, that stuff is a fad.

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:techbubble:

that doesn't mean there isn't money to be made.
Oh I agree. Now is probably the time to get in because the bubbling is just starting. Everything I'm reading is screaming tech bubble to me.
Do you think we'll actually get anything useful out of this tech bubble bursting? Besides billions of dollars spent on copyright/patent litigation. Edited by Slapdash

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But i feel like facebook peaked when the Social Network movie came out.Do i still log in? yes. Am i disappointed more and more every time i log in? yes.

i tend to think FB has hit a bit of a plateau. it's trying to figure out what the next phase of the game will be. nothing wrong with that either. these acquisitions made, like instagram, suggest there is a strategy albeit one that is a little opaque to the average consumer.

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No, it is overvalued.

Gotta bring more to the table than that. Same thing was said about Google.
I don't think Facebook is going to be able to develop the omnipresent ad serving infrastructure Google has. Getting people to interact with businesses directly through Facebook seems like their big growth engine, but I don't really see a compelling reason for most to use it. Depending on revenue from companies like Zynga is not a long term strategy, that stuff is a fad.
Thanks :thumbup:

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:techbubble:

between pandora, zillow, yelp, groupon, facebook, zynga, linked in and others i can't think of right now.. it does feel like it.Facebook is the strongest of that group by far... the others don't feel like they will be around in 10 years... groupon and pandora seem the worst of breed.
What is wrong with Pandora exactly? Free music is never a bad thing...

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What is wrong with Pandora exactly? Free music is never a bad thing...

no problem with you liking the company personally, but as an investor I don't see how your free music is going to make them or me any money

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The upcoming IPO has got to be the biggest IPO since Google. Does anyone think it makes sense to buy retail at the opening bell and then sell later in the day when it shoots up? Anyone have a history studying IPO's?

I'm considering making a move that day, but I know you can get burnt bigtime on IPO's.

But it's facebook. You have to think the retail investor is going to be going nuts for this thing.

the opening price is going to be $28-35.

but the first price available to the retail investor could be as high as $70

how much money do you think you can make in the short term after it is marked up 100%?

30 bucks per share? Part of me thinks everybody and their brother is going to login to their etrade account and buy facebook stock, as everyone will want some. Even if its just to then go to facebook and brag that they bought it.

If I buy at 70 and sell at 100 within a couple hours, thats the easiest profit ever.

But I do agree that it is overvalued, and will start heading down soon after.

Or it could be a google/apple and we'll all rue the day we could have bought it for 70 bucks.

Share price is irrelevant as it can easily be set to any sticker price (can be manipulated up/down by dilution, buybacks, splits, reverse splits, or in this case IPO based on the number of shares being offered). The only thing worth paying attention is P/E, sensible growth estimates, competition, revenue streams, and long term viability. Facebook's current business model is selling private user data to advertisers to tailor ads to demographics/interests.

You also have to consider everyone getting in prior to the secondary market offering is quickly making tons of easy cash. They could be easily getting shares at 10-50% discount before the personal investors have a chance to buy.

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What is wrong with Pandora exactly? Free music is never a bad thing...

no problem with you liking the company personally, but as an investor I don't see how your free music is going to make them or me any money
Pandora is great but its not necessarily "free" music. The free version is ad-supported and they also have an ad-free paid version. They also provide custom streaming service to businesses and have partnered with hardware vendors (TV's, blu-ray players, auto industry, etc).So they do have revenue but its not generating massive growth yet. Edited by NYG Endzone

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What is wrong with Pandora exactly? Free music is never a bad thing...

no problem with you liking the company personally, but as an investor I don't see how your free music is going to make them or me any money
Pandora is great but its not necessarily "free" music. The free version is ad-supported and they also have an ad-free paid version. So they do have revenue but its not generating massive growth yet.
they'll be acquired or bankrupt in less than 5 years.

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Share price is irrelevant as it can easily be set to any sticker price (can be manipulated up/down by dilution, buybacks, splits, reverse splits, or in this case IPO based on the number of shares being offered). The only thing worth paying attention is P/E, sensible growth estimates, competition, revenue streams, and long term viability. Facebook's current business model is selling private user data to advertisers to tailor ads to demographics/interests.You also have to consider everyone getting in prior to the secondary market offering is quickly making tons of easy cash. They could be easily getting shares at 10-50% discount before the personal investors have a chance to buy.

i agree the share price is irrelevant.But i also think in the short term that the P/E, growth estimates, and all the other financial mumbo jumbo is irrelevant also.This is a "story" stock and there are a lot of people out there thinking that they can get into the next google or apple when this this comes live and get rich.You have to figure this is the most-hyped IPO in the information era. I think this is a much bigger deal than Google.Had facebook come public 5 years ago i think a lot of people still might not know what it "is". But because of the movie and the hype.. everyone knows this business... and because everyone uses it, they figure it has to be big.I will not be surprised if it hits $100 in the first 48 hours.

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Share price is irrelevant as it can easily be set to any sticker price (can be manipulated up/down by dilution, buybacks, splits, reverse splits, or in this case IPO based on the number of shares being offered). The only thing worth paying attention is P/E, sensible growth estimates, competition, revenue streams, and long term viability. Facebook's current business model is selling private user data to advertisers to tailor ads to demographics/interests.

You also have to consider everyone getting in prior to the secondary market offering is quickly making tons of easy cash. They could be easily getting shares at 10-50% discount before the personal investors have a chance to buy.

i agree the share price is irrelevant.

But i also think in the short term that the P/E, growth estimates, and all the other financial mumbo jumbo is irrelevant also.

This is a "story" stock and there are a lot of people out there thinking that they can get into the next google or apple when this this comes live and get rich.

You have to figure this is the most-hyped IPO in the information era. I think this is a much bigger deal than Google.

Had facebook come public 5 years ago i think a lot of people still might not know what it "is". But because of the movie and the hype.. everyone knows this business... and because everyone uses it, they figure it has to be big.

I will not be surprised if it hits $100 in the first 48 hours.

You think Facebook will approach a 300B market cap in the first 48 hours?

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You think Facebook will approach a 300B market cap in the first 48 hours?

I think there is going to be some very irrational price action in the stock and that people are going to be paying a high multiple for its earnings, which are fairly paltry.you don't see this think going from $35 to $70 at least?LNKD popped from the $45 price to $90+ on day 1.You don't think Facebook has enough irrational exuberance to pull a triple?Obviously if the price debuts at $25-28 then no, $100 isn't going to happen, but $75 could

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you don't see this think going from $35 to $70 at least?LNKD popped from the $45 price to $90+ on day 1.You don't think Facebook has enough irrational exuberance to pull a triple?Obviously if the price debuts at $25-28 then no, $100 isn't going to happen, but $75 could

Hard to imagine a triple on Day 1, but there is a good chance it ends up being priced above $35. If it jumps too much from the IPO price to the opening price, the underwriters are blamed for not pricing correctly. I do agree there is irrational exuberance around this.

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You think Facebook will approach a 300B market cap in the first 48 hours?

I think there is going to be some very irrational price action in the stock and that people are going to be paying a high multiple for its earnings, which are fairly paltry.you don't see this think going from $35 to $70 at least?LNKD popped from the $45 price to $90+ on day 1.You don't think Facebook has enough irrational exuberance to pull a triple?Obviously if the price debuts at $25-28 then no, $100 isn't going to happen, but $75 could
It is something like 27 P/E right now, right? I don't think that is going to triple.

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It is something like 27 P/E right now, right? I don't think that is going to triple.

maybe not.. but you just KNOW there are tons of people opening e-trade accounts or re-activating their accounts just to pick up 10-20 shares of this

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You think Facebook will approach a 300B market cap in the first 48 hours?

I think there is going to be some very irrational price action in the stock and that people are going to be paying a high multiple for its earnings, which are fairly paltry.you don't see this think going from $35 to $70 at least?LNKD popped from the $45 price to $90+ on day 1.You don't think Facebook has enough irrational exuberance to pull a triple?Obviously if the price debuts at $25-28 then no, $100 isn't going to happen, but $75 could
It is something like 27 P/E right now, right? I don't think that is going to triple.
The P/E will most likely be in triple digits. Right now its 90 at $30/share and 90B valulation. (Facebook 2011 profit: $1 billion)Thus with, Facebook currently at a PE of lets say 100, growth rates need to be 100% for the next few years. To put this in another context, Google trades at 18.5x PE. Facebook needs to grow its bottom line 100% for the next 2.5 years to get there. Possible? Sure, but that is quite a feat considering that profits grew only 65% in 2011. Also in Q1 2012, their net income fell 12% to $205 million (which annually would be less than 1B). Edited by NYG Endzone

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Playing these hot ipos has a lot to do with float (supply/demand stuff). Given the large size of the offering this won't be Linked In. I don't think this will have a crazy pop but I'd like to get in at issue price and either flip it or hold for a bit. I opened accounts with Etrade and TD to try to get some retail shares at issue price. It looks like they're part of the syndicate and will get a decent chunk of retail stock (at least that's what my friends working on the deal tell me). Good luck :thumbup:

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You think Facebook will approach a 300B market cap in the first 48 hours?

I think there is going to be some very irrational price action in the stock and that people are going to be paying a high multiple for its earnings, which are fairly paltry.you don't see this think going from $35 to $70 at least?LNKD popped from the $45 price to $90+ on day 1.You don't think Facebook has enough irrational exuberance to pull a triple?Obviously if the price debuts at $25-28 then no, $100 isn't going to happen, but $75 could
It is something like 27 P/E right now, right? I don't think that is going to triple.
The P/E will most likely be in triple digits. Right now its 90 at $30/share and 90B valulation. (Facebook 2011 profit: $1 billion)Thus with, Facebook currently at a PE of lets say 100, growth rates need to be 100% for the next few years. To put this in another context, Google trades at 18.5x PE. Facebook needs to grow its bottom line 100% for the next 2.5 years to get there. Possible? Sure, but that is quite a feat considering that profits grew only 65% in 2011. Also in Q1 2012, their net income fell 12% to $205 million (which annually would be less than 1B).
:confused: Google's PE >100 at IPO

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You think Facebook will approach a 300B market cap in the first 48 hours?

I think there is going to be some very irrational price action in the stock and that people are going to be paying a high multiple for its earnings, which are fairly paltry.you don't see this think going from $35 to $70 at least?LNKD popped from the $45 price to $90+ on day 1.You don't think Facebook has enough irrational exuberance to pull a triple?Obviously if the price debuts at $25-28 then no, $100 isn't going to happen, but $75 could
It is something like 27 P/E right now, right? I don't think that is going to triple.
The P/E will most likely be in triple digits. Right now its 90 at $30/share and 90B valulation. (Facebook 2011 profit: $1 billion)Thus with, Facebook currently at a PE of lets say 100, growth rates need to be 100% for the next few years. To put this in another context, Google trades at 18.5x PE. Facebook needs to grow its bottom line 100% for the next 2.5 years to get there. Possible? Sure, but that is quite a feat considering that profits grew only 65% in 2011. Also in Q1 2012, their net income fell 12% to $205 million (which annually would be less than 1B).
:confused: Google's PE >100 at IPO
Correct Goog did at IPO. The question is whether Facebook can grow as rapidly as Google to justify a triple digit P/E at IPO (an earnings yield of 1%). Further reading...http://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2012/01/30/four-reasons-why-facebooks-ipo-is-irrelevant/Was Facebook's Q1 a kink in the armor?

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I started to look at the internet roadshow this morning just out of curiosity. I had to turn it off. It was so overproduced and douchie that I couldn't deal with it.

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I have a substantial order (over $100K is the goal, we will see what I get, if anything) in via e-Trade to try and get what I can for the Facebook IPO. People cannot value Facebook versus other companies and also using current PE ratios is not a proper way to value this company...yet. What Facebook has is a gargantuan user base and that has value. Does an audience of 800 million people have a value of over $100 billion? I kind of think that yes, it does. It is weird, but in the movie they say "We don't even know what it is yet." because I feel like that quote still applies. Facebook could do a myriad of things to add value to its company. It is a lot easier to find ways to monetize 800 million (and growing) users than it is to actually get that amount of users. Getting the people is the hard part, figuring out how to make money from them will be figured out IMO. Like Seth Godin says, "turn strangers into friends and friends into customers." Facebook already has 800 million friends.

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I have a substantial order (over $100K is the goal, we will see what I get, if anything) in via e-Trade to try and get what I can for the Facebook IPO. People cannot value Facebook versus other companies and also using current PE ratios is not a proper way to value this company...yet. What Facebook has is a gargantuan user base and that has value. Does an audience of 800 million people have a value of over $100 billion? I kind of think that yes, it does. It is weird, but in the movie they say "We don't even know what it is yet." because I feel like that quote still applies. Facebook could do a myriad of things to add value to its company. It is a lot easier to find ways to monetize 800 million (and growing) users than it is to actually get that amount of users. Getting the people is the hard part, figuring out how to make money from them will be figured out IMO. Like Seth Godin says, "turn strangers into friends and friends into customers." Facebook already has 800 million friends.

Easy there, turbo. The most you'll get is 100 shares. Just make sure to at least put that 100 share indication in with all of your accounts (IRA, Roth, Wifey, etc) instead of just one. The size of your order is meaningless unless it's a dog (where retail will get flooded). Edited by Major

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Phase 1: buyPhase 2: sellPhase 3: profit.

I'm not sure a big pop will happen with 180mm shares being floated but yes, I'd take a modest 20% gain and flip most of my position.

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This is much different then the ipo's of previous companies.

Facebook is already being valued at 90 billion or so. It isn't going to triple and be valued at 250+ billion in a day.

Much different for a ipo of a company valued at 5 billion to see huge gains then a company already valued at 90 billion.

The quick double/triple up on facebooks IPO isn't happening.

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I have a substantial order (over $100K is the goal, we will see what I get, if anything) in via e-Trade to try and get what I can for the Facebook IPO.

For your own account? Good luck. I put in an order for 300, which is 200 more than I have any shot at.

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As an average investor, I don't think ANYONE has a shot at this IPO. I was a broker for 3 years, and when the bigger IPO's came out, I was lucky if I got 500 shares to give to my entire client base. I wasn't a big hitter, but even they didn't get that many. The Facebook IPO is gonna be bananas. I think anyone expecting to get shares at the IPO price without having a million dollar investment account is going to be disappointed.

That said, I'm personally avoiding it. It's just too much of a gamble. The banks will get the bulk of the shares, and let it fly up as individuals buy in, then when it gets to a point, they'll dump their shares. There IS money to be made...but if you time it wrong, you could stand to lose a bundle. The old adage Risk = Reward again holds true here. You could pull a 100% return in 1 day...you could also just as easily lose 50% in one day if you put a market order in and it spikes. IF I was gonna play, I'd pick a price based on my own P/E research, and put a limit order in for that price and no higher. I'd also then put a sell limit in at the price I'd be willing to sell immediately. When that thing comes out, the price is going to fluctuate so quickly that market orders are going to be tough to time unless you can stare at real-time quotes all day.

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Facebook - buy or sell? Will investors like Facebook shares?

It's the week that Facebook shares are likely to start trading in New York, a seismic event in the technology and business world. It promises to be the most valuable stock market debut ever for a technology firm - and there are already expectations that the share price will then soar as investors rush to get in on the act. But suddenly there seem to be quite a few reasons to be bearish about Facebook.

The main cause came from the company itself, which updated its advice to investors in official documents last week to include an extra risk factor:

"ncreased user access to and engagement with Facebook through our mobile products, where we do not currently directly generate meaningful revenue, particularly to the extent that mobile engagement is substituted for engagement with Facebook on personal computers where we monetize usage by displaying ads and other commercial content."

In other words, the future of Facebook is on mobile phones, and we haven't the faintest idea how we make money from that. If you, like many people, spend much of your social networking time staring at a smartphone, you may have noticed something rather refreshing - a lack of advertising cluttering up the valuable real estate of the small screen.

Whatever the claims of a fast growing mobile advertising industry, it is proving hard for Facebook and other companies dependent on ad revenue to insert messages into the mobile conversation.

Mark Zuckerberg's company has responded to this threat with an extraordinary burst of activity in the run-up to the IPO (Initial Public Offering). There was the $1bn purchase of the mobile photo sharing app Instagram, the announcement that Facebook was launching an app store, and, over the weekend, news of trials of a system where users would pay a small fee to make their posts more visible to friends on the network.

But it's not clear any of this will generate a lot of revenue. Putting adverts around Instagram snaps, thereby taking screen space from your pictures doesn't sound attractive. How Facebook will get much of a payback from an apps store if it is mainly linking to the Apple and Android stores remains to be seen. And, as for paying to make your friends listen to you, asking users to shell out for something that they have always got for free sounds like a no-no.

The future of Facebook is on mobile phones The other cause for concern for potential investors is the rising tide of anxiety about the implications of sharing so much of our data with the social network. With perfect timing, the Silicon Valley controversialist Andrew Keen has a new book out, Digital Vertigo, which is in essence a diatribe against the "frictionless sharing" that is at the heart of Facebook's business model. "Chillingly Orwellian" is his description of a world where our every move is tracked to generate better advertising returns.

Meanwhile there appears to be a user revolt against the broadcasting of one's media habits on Facebook, with reports that newspaper social reading apps are seeing a rapid decline in usage. Do you really want the world to know you've just read some gossipy diary item in the Guardian, or listened to a One Direction track on Spotify?

Now, Facebook is confident that these are the concerns of a tiny if vociferous minority, and that most of us want to share ever more of our lives online. But if its users become even a little more cautious about their privacy, that will be damaging to the revenue growth which is already built into a sky-high valuation.

The biggest counter-argument, the bull's case for Facebook, can be summed up in one word - Google. When the search giant floated in 2004, there was similar scepticism about its prospects, but shares priced at $85 at the launch had climbed above $600 three years on. And Facebook is a more mature business than Google was back then, with more than twice as much revenue in the year before its IPO.

Still, Google was valued at around $23bn in 2004, while Facebook is looking at a price tag four times as high. Investors who do take the plunge are betting that Facebook will enjoy the same stellar rate of growth in revenue and profits that Google has experienced over the last eight years. And here the news is not so good. The most recent quarterly figures actually showed a decline in revenue on the previous three months, blamed on seasonal factors.

In the end, though, the Facebook IPO is a bet on the shape of our digital future. If you believe in a world where billions of us share our lives online with our friends and with advertisers, then shares in the social web's dominant business may look attractive. But if you think that people are going to start rebelling against the idea that, if they're not paying, they're the product, then maybe you won't be buying a stake in Mark Zuckerberg's company.

I've found Facebook's mobile apps on both Adnroid and iOS to be consistently terrible anyways, this is an interesting angle.

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-18056547

Edited by Slapdash

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A couple of words scare me about this IPO: My Space.

Not many years ago, they were the dominant social network, and FB came along as the hipper, cooler new kid. The hordes fled MS in droves in favor of FB.

Now, of course, FB is seen as the Corporate Establishment.

That said, I am more of a long term buy-n-hold guy, so that's why FB has no draw for me; but.....I'm sure that there is definitely the opportunity to make some short term profits off of what Dentist calls "irrational exuberance."

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A couple of words scare me about this IPO: My Space. Not many years ago, they were the dominant social network, and FB came along as the hipper, cooler new kid. The hordes fled MS in droves in favor of FB.

Facebook has solved this problem by simply BUYING its competitors.

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A couple of words scare me about this IPO: My Space. Not many years ago, they were the dominant social network, and FB came along as the hipper, cooler new kid. The hordes fled MS in droves in favor of FB. Now, of course, FB is seen as the Corporate Establishment. That said, I am more of a long term buy-n-hold guy, so that's why FB has no draw for me; but.....I'm sure that there is definitely the opportunity to make some short term profits off of what Dentist calls "irrational exuberance."

I really don't think MySpace has much to do with Facebook. You're comparing two sites with completely different visions and models.

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A couple of words scare me about this IPO: My Space. Not many years ago, they were the dominant social network, and FB came along as the hipper, cooler new kid. The hordes fled MS in droves in favor of FB. Now, of course, FB is seen as the Corporate Establishment. That said, I am more of a long term buy-n-hold guy, so that's why FB has no draw for me; but.....I'm sure that there is definitely the opportunity to make some short term profits off of what Dentist calls "irrational exuberance."

I really don't think MySpace has much to do with Facebook. You're comparing two sites with completely different visions and models.
Yes. Just like Footballguys has a completely different vision and models than FFToday.

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They have to solve mobile before anyone else does. And it won't be easy since ads don't convert well on mobile.

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