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Facebook IPO thread (1 Viewer)

I think Facebook is a good company as well, but there will be so much selling pressure because of the added shares flooding the market. I think the best entry point would be about 2 or 3 months after the last release of shares. I still has more to go on the downside.

 
Afterhours, it is up nearly 2% on news that Zuckerberg won't sell any of his shares for 12 months. I will take it.

 
Wall Street does not understand internet companies. You can't buy Facebook with the intent to trade it. If you want to buy it and hold on for 3-5 years it's got significant upside potential. Zuck will not make moves based on quarterly earnings or short term incentives. He's playing a long game that has huge potential. It's actually quite similar to early Amazon, where Bezos was telling people "I'm willing to be misunderstood for a long period of time". It will be a long time before anyone on Wall Street understands what Zuckerberg is doing.

 
'jonathanjoseph said:
Wall Street does not understand internet companies. You can't buy Facebook with the intent to trade it. If you want to buy it and hold on for 3-5 years it's got significant upside potential. Zuck will not make moves based on quarterly earnings or short term incentives. He's playing a long game that has huge potential. It's actually quite similar to early Amazon, where Bezos was telling people "I'm willing to be misunderstood for a long period of time". It will be a long time before anyone on Wall Street understands what Zuckerberg is doing.
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From what I can tell, he's slowly turning it into MySpace with the help of Zynga.
 
Mark Cuban weighs in on an issue discussed earlier in this thread: Facebook Handled their IPO Exactly Right(responding to Andrew Ross Sorkin's piece in Dealbook earlier this week).

Facebook Handled their IPO Exactly Right

Sep 4th 2012 8:30AM

Andrews Ross Sorkin wrote a piece for the NY Times that was just ridiculous. He put the blame squarely on the back of the CFO of FB. Talk about getting it 180 degrees wrong.

Have you ever been to an auction where the selling party told a buyer to reduce their price because they were worried that the item might not hold its value ? Neither have I. If the CFO of Facebook came on SharkTank and told me that he was able to sell his shares to the public for $38 a share, but turned down the opportunity, I would crush him for being an idiot.

Facebook was able to raise about 10 BILLION DOLLARS in this IPO. The CFO’s job is not to manage shareholder portfolios. His job is to help Facebook succeed. I don’t know about you, but putting 10 BILLION DOLLARS in the bank in my opinion is one way to help them succeed.

Who’s job is it to help manage the portfolio’s of FB investors ? If an investor doesn’t manage their own portfolio, the brokers who sold them the stock are responsible. It’s their job to read the prospectus if you as an investor are too lazy to do so. It is the job of the broker to help the investor understand the value of the company and make a buying decision. No question that there are a lot of brokers out there that did not do their jobs.

As far as traders who bought the stock hoping for a pop. No one cares about them. Seriously. You trade, you know you are going to lose on trades. That is how things work.

I bought and sold FB shares as a TRADE, not an investment. I lost money. When the stock didn’t bounce as I thought/hoped it would, I realized I was wrong and got out. It wasn’t the fault of the FB CFO that I lost money. It was my fault. I know that no one sells me shares of stock because they expect the price of the stock to go up. So someone saw me coming and they sold me the stock. That is the way the stock market works. When you sit at the trading terminal you look for the sucker. When you don’t see one, it’s you. In this case it was me.

If the goal of the company is to maximize the cash obtained from the IPO, then the CFO should absolutely price the stock to maximize the return. If the goal of the company is to get a 1 day pop to make a PR splash , that is a completely different strategy. It obviously was not the strategy of Facebook. Facebook maximized the cash available to it. They have been very clear that they will not manage the stock, they will manage the company to reach the goals they have been very open and honest about. Good for them.

Andrew did try to make one cogent argument that Facebook faced the risk of employees leaving because their options were underwater. Apparently Andrew forgot that companies can re-price their options. Problem solved.

I will leave you with this article from a few years back when Google was at a similar point, having lost more than TWICE the market cap valuation that Facebook has lost to this point.

...
Click to expand...
 
'CletiusMaximus said:
I know that no one sells me shares of stock because they expect the price of the stock to go up. So someone saw me coming and they sold me the stock. That is the way the stock market works. When you sit at the trading terminal you look for the sucker. When you don’t see one, it’s you.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Exactly right. This is true of all bets, whether buying or selling a stock, picking the over in the Chargers-Raiders game, or betting on horse #5 to show. You need to understand why the person on the opposite side of the transaction thinks he's making a good bet. If I'm going to buy facebook at $25, I need to understand why the other guy is selling. What's his rationale for thinking that the stock is worth less than that?If I can't spot the error in his reasoning (which necessitates knowing what his reasoning is), then maybe he's the one who's spotted the error in my reasoning. If I can't explain why he's the sucker, then it's pretty likely that I'm the sucker.(In fact, that doesn't only go for placing bets. It goes for pretty much everything. If I'm going to pick a side in the evolution-creationism debate, I better be able to articulate the other side's arguments as well as they can, and be able to explain why those arguments are deficient. If I can't do that — if I don't know their arguments as well as they do — I shouldn't be picking a side in the first place. But that principle is particularly important to heed when placing bets because, unlike in most other matters, there's an actual penalty for being wrong.)
 
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'flapgreen said:
'Maurile Tremblay said:
'flapgreen said:
Does this mean facebook is in danger of going out of business?
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No way. The stock price has plummeted since the IPO, but that's because it was priced too high then. As a result of being priced so high, however, it raised about $16 billion in cash. The people who put their cash into it may not be happy right now, but the company itself is flush.
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That sounds like something was going on behind closed doors. Why would it be priced more than double its value, while ownership knew it was nowhere near that much?
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The seller is looking to maximize revenue from the transaction. It is not their job to make sure the buyer is getting "fair value". It is the buyers responsibility to valuate and act accordingly. If you are relying on market makers to tell you how much a stock is worth, then you didn't learn anything about these scumbags in the last 15 years.
 
'Maurile Tremblay said:
'CletiusMaximus said:
I know that no one sells me shares of stock because they expect the price of the stock to go up. So someone saw me coming and they sold me the stock. That is the way the stock market works. When you sit at the trading terminal you look for the sucker. When you don’t see one, it’s you.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Exactly right. This is true of all bets, whether buying or selling a stock, picking the over in the Chargers-Raiders game, or betting on horse #5 to show. You need to understand why the person on the opposite side of the transaction thinks he's making a good bet. If I'm going to buy facebook at $25, I need to understand why the other guy is selling. What's his rationale for thinking that the stock is worth less than that?If I can't spot the error in his reasoning (which necessitates knowing what his reasoning is), then maybe he's the one who's spotted the error in my reasoning. If I can't explain why he's the sucker, then it's pretty likely that I'm the sucker.(In fact, that doesn't only go for placing bets. It goes for pretty much everything. If I'm going to pick a side in the evolution-creationism debate, I better be able to articulate the other side's arguments as well as they can, and be able to explain why those arguments are deficient. If I can't do that — if I don't know their arguments as well as they do — I shouldn't be picking a side in the first place. But that principle is particularly important to heed when placing bets because, unlike in most other matters, there's an actual penalty for being wrong.)
Click to expand...
Actually, it isn't exactly right, especially when talking about an IPO. People don't just issue or sell stock because they think it is overvalued or going to go down.
 
An IPO is nothing special. There is zero inherent profit just because it's an IPO. It's a bet just like every other stock out there. Could go up, could go down. Just because it's an IPO has nothing to do with undervalue or overvalue of it.

Stock is a stock is a stock even at an IPO.

 
'SlaX said:
'Topes said:
This will bring it back!

Bound to be WAY popular!
Click to expand...
I just noticed this. I guess Facebook finally realized that they need to find a way to monetize their "billion users".
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This has been around for Pages for quite some time, I believe. I think we can agree it's probably a good thing for Facebook's bottom line, right? Facebook is pulling back the ability for sites/apps to spam all your activity to the wall (see the latest developer blog post for details), so while some may find this a little "spammy", for the most part it is showing posts that people actually want to see and it replaces the "So and so just read this article about Blah, blah, blah."
 
'Mario Kart said:
An IPO is nothing special. There is zero inherent profit just because it's an IPO. It's a bet just like every other stock out there. Could go up, could go down. Just because it's an IPO has nothing to do with undervalue or overvalue of it. Stock is a stock is a stock even at an IPO.
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brilliant insight. thanks guy :thumbup:
 
Nice bump for the stock today after the Q3 earnings report. Up $3.75 or so. About 3 weeks until the next set of lockups expire. Trying to decide if I lock in some profits here and then try to buy back in if it take a bit of a dive after the lockups expire or just ride the lockup bumps out. My original buy in was around $19 and some change. I don't have a large position, and it's in my IRA so it is meant to be a more long-term investment, but that doesn't mean I shouldn't sell and pick it back up in a month or so.

 
'Leeroy Jenkins said:
I think an exodus is imminent. Facebook: I Want My Friends Backhttp://dangerousminds.net/comments/facebook_i_want_my_friends_back
Click to expand...
I don't own Facebook stock nor do I run a business that relies on Facebook, but that blog post sounds like a bunch of crying. "Waaaaaa..... I use to pay nothing to utilize your network to reach millions of people with very little effort. Now you're charging me? Waaaa."
 
'Leeroy Jenkins said:
I think an exodus is imminent.

Facebook: I Want My Friends Back

http://dangerousmind...my_friends_back
Click to expand...
That is about the brands, not people. Misleading title. Basically he says he doesn't agree with Facebook's rate structure. IMO, businesses have been getting a great deal advertising for basically free on Facebook, and it is Facebook's prerogative to make changes to bring in revenue. If anything, less business posts in a users stream mean users should be happier (less spam, right?) I work in the industry, and we are not seeing brands leave Facebook - just the opposite, they are asking what else they can do on Facebook.
 
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'Maelstrom said:
'Leeroy Jenkins said:
I think an exodus is imminent.

Facebook: I Want My Friends Back

http://dangerousmind...my_friends_back
Click to expand...
That is about the brands, not people. Misleading title. Basically he says he doesn't agree with Facebook's rate structure. IMO, businesses have been getting a great deal advertising for basically free on Facebook, and it is Facebook's prerogative to make changes to bring in revenue. If anything, less business posts in a users stream mean users should be happier (less spam, right?) I work in the industry, and we are not seeing brands leave Facebook - just the opposite, they are asking what else they can do on Facebook.
Click to expand...
I think the point of the article is that Facebook is pricing out their customers. The guy was okay with paying $30k per year to have his articles reach his "friends" but not okay with $675k per year.It's not a matter of charging vs not charging. It is a matter of price.

 
'Maelstrom said:
'Leeroy Jenkins said:
I think an exodus is imminent.

Facebook: I Want My Friends Back

http://dangerousmind...my_friends_back
Click to expand...
That is about the brands, not people. Misleading title. Basically he says he doesn't agree with Facebook's rate structure. IMO, businesses have been getting a great deal advertising for basically free on Facebook, and it is Facebook's prerogative to make changes to bring in revenue. If anything, less business posts in a users stream mean users should be happier (less spam, right?) I work in the industry, and we are not seeing brands leave Facebook - just the opposite, they are asking what else they can do on Facebook.
Click to expand...
I'll disagree. It hasn't been free. There are costs associated with building up your fan base on Facebook. I don't think it's considered spam. Consumers actively sought out that brand to like them in the first place. They voluntarily opted in to get information from those companies. If they think it is spam or they want less information, they can easily go and unlike that brand. Do you have any clients processing transactions or offering ecommerce inside the Facebook platform yet?

 
'urbanhack said:
'Maelstrom said:
'Leeroy Jenkins said:
I think an exodus is imminent.

Facebook: I Want My Friends Back

http://dangerousmind...my_friends_back
Click to expand...
That is about the brands, not people. Misleading title. Basically he says he doesn't agree with Facebook's rate structure. IMO, businesses have been getting a great deal advertising for basically free on Facebook, and it is Facebook's prerogative to make changes to bring in revenue. If anything, less business posts in a users stream mean users should be happier (less spam, right?) I work in the industry, and we are not seeing brands leave Facebook - just the opposite, they are asking what else they can do on Facebook.
Click to expand...
I'll disagree. It hasn't been free. There are costs associated with building up your fan base on Facebook. I don't think it's considered spam. Consumers actively sought out that brand to like them in the first place. They voluntarily opted in to get information from those companies. If they think it is spam or they want less information, they can easily go and unlike that brand. Do you have any clients processing transactions or offering ecommerce inside the Facebook platform yet?
Click to expand...
Right. I like companies, restaurants, etc. on FB because I WANT updates from them. I want to know about deals and specials and bands and schedules and updates. I post things on my timeline because I WANT my friends to know about them. It sucks that only 15% of your friends see what you post anymore, yet I can promoted BS in my news feed from thing I am not subscribed to, I get conversations between friends and non-friends, and I get suggested friends that are obviously fakes.
 
'No. 16 said:
'Leeroy Jenkins said:
I think an exodus is imminent. Facebook: I Want My Friends Backhttp://dangerousminds.net/comments/facebook_i_want_my_friends_back
Click to expand...
I don't own Facebook stock nor do I run a business that relies on Facebook, but that blog post sounds like a bunch of crying. "Waaaaaa..... I use to pay nothing to utilize your network to reach millions of people with very little effort. Now you're charging me? Waaaa."
Click to expand...
The point that Facebook is imposing costs not found on similar services is a worrying one. I agree though, that post was awfully full of butthurt tone.
 
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'Slapdash said:
'No. 16 said:
'Leeroy Jenkins said:
I think an exodus is imminent.

Facebook: I Want My Friends Back

http://dangerousminds.net/comments/facebook_i_want_my_friends_back
Click to expand...
I don't own Facebook stock nor do I run a business that relies on Facebook, but that blog post sounds like a bunch of crying. "Waaaaaa..... I use to pay nothing to utilize your network to reach millions of people with very little effort. Now you're charging me? Waaaa."
Click to expand...
The point that Facebook is imposing costs not found on similar services is a worrying one. I agree though, that post was awfully full of butthurt tone.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure this is on Pickles banned list.
 
'Joe T said:
'Slapdash said:
'No. 16 said:
'Leeroy Jenkins said:
I think an exodus is imminent.

Facebook: I Want My Friends Back

http://dangerousminds.net/comments/facebook_i_want_my_friends_back
Click to expand...
I don't own Facebook stock nor do I run a business that relies on Facebook, but that blog post sounds like a bunch of crying. "Waaaaaa..... I use to pay nothing to utilize your network to reach millions of people with very little effort. Now you're charging me? Waaaa."
Click to expand...
The point that Facebook is imposing costs not found on similar services is a worrying one. I agree though, that post was awfully full of butthurt tone.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure this is on Pickles banned list.
Click to expand...
:kicksrock:
 
'Joe T said:
'Slapdash said:
'No. 16 said:
'Leeroy Jenkins said:
I think an exodus is imminent.

Facebook: I Want My Friends Back

http://dangerousminds.net/comments/facebook_i_want_my_friends_back
Click to expand...
I don't own Facebook stock nor do I run a business that relies on Facebook, but that blog post sounds like a bunch of crying. "Waaaaaa..... I use to pay nothing to utilize your network to reach millions of people with very little effort. Now you're charging me? Waaaa."
Click to expand...
The point that Facebook is imposing costs not found on similar services is a worrying one. I agree though, that post was awfully full of butthurt tone.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure this is on Pickles banned list.
Click to expand...
Just us he's all butthurt about it doesn't mean we can't think its totally tight butthole.

:go2bfresh:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
'Slapdash said:
'No. 16 said:
'Leeroy Jenkins said:
I think an exodus is imminent. Facebook: I Want My Friends Backhttp://dangerousminds.net/comments/facebook_i_want_my_friends_back
Click to expand...
I don't own Facebook stock nor do I run a business that relies on Facebook, but that blog post sounds like a bunch of crying. "Waaaaaa..... I use to pay nothing to utilize your network to reach millions of people with very little effort. Now you're charging me? Waaaa."
Click to expand...
The point that Facebook is imposing costs not found on similar services is a worrying one. I agree though, that post was awfully full of butthurt tone.
Click to expand...
There's s reason they advertise on Facebook...because it has the largest network. If they want to access it Facebook has the right to charge what they want or they can go with the other networks.
 
'urbanhack said:
'Maelstrom said:
'Leeroy Jenkins said:
I think an exodus is imminent.

Facebook: I Want My Friends Back

http://dangerousmind...my_friends_back
Click to expand...
That is about the brands, not people. Misleading title. Basically he says he doesn't agree with Facebook's rate structure. IMO, businesses have been getting a great deal advertising for basically free on Facebook, and it is Facebook's prerogative to make changes to bring in revenue. If anything, less business posts in a users stream mean users should be happier (less spam, right?) I work in the industry, and we are not seeing brands leave Facebook - just the opposite, they are asking what else they can do on Facebook.
Click to expand...
I'll disagree. It hasn't been free. There are costs associated with building up your fan base on Facebook. I don't think it's considered spam. Consumers actively sought out that brand to like them in the first place. They voluntarily opted in to get information from those companies. If they think it is spam or they want less information, they can easily go and unlike that brand. Do you have any clients processing transactions or offering ecommerce inside the Facebook platform yet?
Click to expand...
Nothing processing transactions/ecommerce within Facebook, but that isn't what this guy was referring to. He said it cost him $200 to promote a post, and he had about 10 posts a day he'd want to promote, for a total of around $2000 a day to reach the same audience as before the changes went into affect. And there are definitely costs building the business, but they have so far been in driving traffic to your Facebook page. We run advertising campaigns of tens of thousands of dollars and more for many of our customers.
'Leeroy Jenkins said:
Right. I like companies, restaurants, etc. on FB because I WANT updates from them. I want to know about deals and specials and bands and schedules and updates. I post things on my timeline because I WANT my friends to know about them. It sucks that only 15% of your friends see what you post anymore, yet I can promoted BS in my news feed from thing I am not subscribed to, I get conversations between friends and non-friends, and I get suggested friends that are obviously fakes.
Click to expand...
I do the same thing, but we have statistics showing that more than half of the people on Facebook that Like a brand do so only because they are going to get something because they Liked it - coupon, sweepstakes entry, etc. Those aren't people that want to see messages from those brands in their feed, they just have to click Like to get the offer. My thoughts on Facebook is this. That is where the people are. If businesses want to play, they have to do so by Facebook's rules. And it is fully within Facebook's rights to change both their sorting algorithm and whether or not to charge businesses for premium placement on people's wall. Will it work for Facebook? I don't know. But I don't think it'll cause a mass exodus of people, and if they people are there, I believe the businesses will stay.

 
'Slapdash said:
'culdeus said:
'Slapdash said:
'Tabasco Red said:
'Slapdash said:
'coyote5 said:
so even if I don't have FB open, it is tracking my net activity?

Like, ALL of my activity? :shock: Christ, FB is like my ex-wife.
Click to expand...
Yes, they have been doing this for some time. Facebook and other sites install something called a "super cookie" (also called Locally Shared Object or Flash Cookie) on your machine which tracks your activity on any sites with a Facebook button, like this site. Your privacy and anonymity is an illusion, my friend.

http://blogs.howstuffworks.com/2009/08/11/super-cookies-lurk-in-your-browser/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_shared_object
Click to expand...
If I use Firefox only for logging into Facebook, and use Chrome to surf everything else, does that super cookie span multiple browsers?The wikipedia article sounds like it does.
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I'm not sure, I think so. There are add-ons for Firefox that will delete these off of your hard drive though.
Click to expand...
I appreciate the tip. I didn't know these extensions existed.
Click to expand...
Better Privacy and Ghostery are good ones for this.
Click to expand...
Been using Ghostery for the past week or so. :thumbup: :thumbup:
 
'FavreCo said:
'toadstool said:
'Slapdash said:
'toadstool said:
'Sinn Fein said:
'toadstool said:
I am now in the green in my 4000 shares of facebook. As of yesterday's close I was up about a whopping $750 for my 4000 shares. A nice 1/2 of a percent gain so far ;-)

Again I am here for the long run and am hoping these 4000 shares pay off looking out about 12 - 18 months.
Click to expand...
Update?
Click to expand...
I am down just over $30K of my $120K investment in fb. Still 10-16 months left to go, not really a noticable hit in my portfolio, but I still think the upside is worth the tiny risk. 10-16 months to go.I also may not be done buying, at $22 or $20 I might buy more.
Click to expand...
:popcorn:
Click to expand...
Got 2000 at 20, I don't expect it to hit 16 (sold 65 goog to get in more, don't expect it to hit 16, but already have the order in.)
Click to expand...
This is a live :tfp: unfolding in front of us.
Click to expand...
:thumbup: Was just reading some research on FB and got reminded of this thread. Nice 50% return on that last piece toadstool in 6 mths!

I didn't get involved, but it nice to see people making money. Where's this FarveCo clown now?

 
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I bought some at a bit under $20. Been considering selling off a bit since it seems to have stabilized around $30 and may even take a bit of a dip for a while if the earnings report isn't good at the end of the month (I believe.) That said, a good report plus the Graph Search announcement today could have it continue to rise. I think it'll float right around $30 for a while though, assuming numbers in the earnings report are good but not spectacular.

 
optionmaven said:
'Mario Kart said:
When or are people going to jump in? At $18 right now.
Click to expand...
Not jumping in at all, but lets face it, this is where ipo should have been issued. Lots of people calling for it to go lower, waiting for 10-12 seems smart.

I still wouldn't be surprised to see this be its low as well. We'll see if support comes in, or if the bottom drops. My guess is also that if it drops to 15-16, it will see 10-12 before it hits 20+ again. Watch the charts and trends.
Click to expand...
Sigh. 11 months and a double up+. Missed some easy money here.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
optionmaven said:
optionmaven said:
'Mario Kart said:
When or are people going to jump in? At $18 right now.
Click to expand...
Not jumping in at all, but lets face it, this is where ipo should have been issued. Lots of people calling for it to go lower, waiting for 10-12 seems smart.

I still wouldn't be surprised to see this be its low as well. We'll see if support comes in, or if the bottom drops. My guess is also that if it drops to 15-16, it will see 10-12 before it hits 20+ again. Watch the charts and trends.
Click to expand...
Sigh. 11 months and a double up+. Missed some easy money here.
Click to expand...
I jumped in on it when it went below $20. I missed the floor a little, but still ended up at right around $19 per share.

 
classic ipo of a solid growth company that floods the market with too much float, falls and rises again once all that hedge fund stock finds stable hands....seen it happen time after time when I used to work ECM for one of the bulge bracket banks.

 
i am still in my IPO shares ($39 ish). Not exactly sure what to do with these things. I sold 1/2 a while ago at a loss but net/net I am still in the black. I am sure that as soon as i sell they will go to 100.

 
Didn't get a ton, but did get in on some shares around $19-$20 range for a nice 150% profit on it. Was going to buy some more around the mid $20s but this is in my IRA so didn't want to commit more than 5% overall to individual stocks (have some other individual ones I play with in there as well). Kinda kicking myself for not trusting what I knew was a great deal then and buying more but spent too much time reading and some of the naysayers got to me.

 
didn't own a ton, but sold 2/3's of my position today for a double up. probably should have dumped it all but did have any better ideas what to do.

 
I know Facebook is down 3% today but it is at $112.  Toadstool - care to racap your profits on this "POS" according to Farveco?  Congrats on the gains!

 
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