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floods

Second Year Wide Receivers

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2011 was a very unique year in FF, having a few very good first year WRs who beat the stigma that WRs take a few years to develop. Many owners were burned by TBMW last year, which second year WRs improve and which hit that dreaded sophomore slump?

Who are you selling and who are you buying?

AJ Green: 65/1057/7 115 targets

Julio Jones: 54/959/8 95 targets

Torrey Smith: 50/841/7 95 targets

Doug Baldwin: 51/788/4 85 targets

Greg Little: 61/709/2 120 targets

Denarius Moore: 33/618/5 76 targets

Titus Young: 48/607/6 85 targets

Randall Cobb: 24/369/1 30 targets

Vincent Brown: 19/329/2 40 targets

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Of course I think J.Jones and Green are going to be the top two guys but the guy I think is going to really step up this year is Smith I expect he could reach the top 15 and maybe higher. I think Little will be a bust and I think Moore also takes a big step back.

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The guy I like from a cost/upside perspective is Clyde Gates. I think he has the potential to pull a Chad Johnson this year. He has elite physical ability and a wide open opportunity to win the #1 job on a team that will be playing from behind. Definitely a guy that I'll be looking to snag in the late rounds.

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The guy I like from a cost/upside perspective is Clyde Gates. I think he has the potential to pull a Chad Johnson this year. He has elite physical ability and a wide open opportunity to win the #1 job on a team that will be playing from behind. Definitely a guy that I'll be looking to snag in the late rounds.

BIM

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The guy I like from a cost/upside perspective is Clyde Gates. I think he has the potential to pull a Chad Johnson this year. He has elite physical ability and a wide open opportunity to win the #1 job on a team that will be playing from behind. Definitely a guy that I'll be looking to snag in the late rounds.

Just missing why people keep bringing this guy up. Has a ton of straightline speed, and nothing else. Overaged prospect who did not flash as rookie (I know he was "injured"), has zero reputation as significant route runneer nor NFL level hands. while he lookslike he in a good situation, the Dolphins have will have either a rookie QB or below average veteran throwing to him. Gates is a dart throw, but really nothing about smells any better than another Berian or Jacoby jones.

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The guy I like from a cost/upside perspective is Clyde Gates. I think he has the potential to pull a Chad Johnson this year. He has elite physical ability and a wide open opportunity to win the #1 job on a team that will be playing from behind. Definitely a guy that I'll be looking to snag in the late rounds.

Just missing why people keep bringing this guy up. Has a ton of straightline speed, and nothing else. Overaged prospect who did not flash as rookie (I know he was "injured"), has zero reputation as significant route runneer nor NFL level hands. while he lookslike he in a good situation, the Dolphins have will have either a rookie QB or below average veteran throwing to him.
The list of great receivers who didn't produce as rookies is a long one. Here are what some prominent WRs did in their rookie season:

Miles Austin - 0 catches

Wes Welker - 0 catches

Vincent Jackson - 3 catches

Steve Smith (CAR) - 10 catches

Steve Johnson - 10 catches

Antonio Brown - 16 catches

Brandon Marshall - 20 catches

Plaxico Burress - 22 catches

Chad Johnson - 28 catches

Roddy White - 29 catches

The instant success of players like AJ Green and Mike Williams makes it easy to forget that there's a learning curve for players making the transition from college to the NFL. You often don't see a receiver's true ability until 2-3 years into his career. Gates has a good excuse because he not only had to make the jump from college, but from a small school. In that regard he's similar to Austin and Jackson, who both played at tiny colleges and were basically invisible as rookies.

Regarding this...

Has a ton of straightline speed, and nothing else. Overaged prospect who did not flash as rookie (I know he was "injured"), has zero reputation as significant route runneer nor NFL level hands.

He only had 12 targets last season. How much flash were you expecting? I'd say he showed
.

Contrary to your characterization, he's more than just a speed guy. He's agile with good lateral quickness and great leaping ability.

His pure receiving skills are definitely a bit of a mystery, but when you look at this sorry group of WRs in Miami it's pretty clear that he has the most upside. He has Pro Bowl physical tools, whereas most of the players on their roster would be lucky to threaten for a starting position down the road. Hartline, Bess, and Naanee are total mediocrities. The same is probably true of Fuller, Cunningham, and Matthews. Gates might not be anything more than that, but he at least has the potential to be something great. That's what makes him the clear target here, IMO. Bess might be good for best ball leagues and is probably the safe pick of the lot, but Gates is the guy who could have a breakout season and win you a title.

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Torrey Smith is who I like the most. I think J Baldwin could have a really nice 2nd year too. Reports seem to be good on him maturing and getting into the playbook...etc.

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Buying high

AJ Green

Julio Jones

Just, buying

Denarius Moore

Vincent Brown

Greg Little

Titus Young

Clyde Gates

Not buying, but showed enough to be a contributor - might take them if they slip in redrafts

Torrey Smith

Doug Baldwin

Dynasty stash - buy low, not expecting anything until 2013 though

Randall Cobb

Not buying - Leonard Hankerson

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I'm agreeing with EBF on Clyde Gates. I think he has the best shot of all Miami's WR's to have at least a decent year and an upside for a real good year. You'll be able to get him real late and at that price I think he could be a sleeper that jumps out and then everyone wants to get him. A guy that could surprise everyone and help your team. I'd definitely take a late round flyer on him. We're always looking for that guy that no one suspects will bust out somewhat and Gates I feel could have the opportunity to do that.

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No love for Jon Baldwin.I like his odds and is a cheaper WR to get out of this class due to not much production last year.6'4 220, good measurables...5 star recruit out of HS...produced at Pitt...looking at single coverage opposite Bowe.

:goodposting:He's likely one of the cheapest of last year's class to acquire, and I like his potential as much as anyone outside of AJ and Julio.

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In 3 years I expect the top 5 WRs from this class, in order, to be:

1) Julio Jones

2) AJ Green

3) Randall Cobb

4) Greg Little

5) Torrey Smith

... with a 50/50 chance of Jon Baldwin making the list. He's got the talent, but work ethic is what makes top players in the NFL and that's not his strong point. Some people turn it around, though. Love me some Cobb =) Fearless player over the middle with phenomenal athleticism ... McCarthy is going to scheme to use use him very well in the slot the next couple of years.

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Saw this on Rotoworld:

The Palm Beach Post believes second-year WR Clyde Gates is "no lock to make the roster."

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Saw this on Rotoworld:The Palm Beach Post believes second-year WR Clyde Gates is "no lock to make the roster."

I wouldn't be surprised if he's cut.

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Doug Baldwin: 51/788/4 85 targets

Seems like nobody likes this guy. Why?

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I think Little will be a bust and I think Moore also takes a big step back.

You think this because of the QB upgrade, the RB upgrade, the OL upgrade, or all the WRs the Browns added?

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Doug Baldwin: 51/788/4 85 targets

Seems like nobody likes this guy. Why?
I think most people think he's a fluke. I like him, he looked pretty polished for a rookie and I think Seattle will get him more involved this year. If everyone's down on him then I will buy.

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Doug Baldwin: 51/788/4 85 targets

Seems like nobody likes this guy. Why?
Probably due to the low ceiling. He's a possession receiver on a team that will try to run the ball as much as possible. Possible he could post good numbers in a PPR league, but he's going to really be limited in redzone targets.

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Doug Baldwin: 51/788/4 85 targets

Seems like nobody likes this guy. Why?
Probably due to the low ceiling. He's a possession receiver on a team that will try to run the ball as much as possible. Possible he could post good numbers in a PPR league, but he's going to really be limited in redzone targets.
On a team with Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst throwing to him. I wonder what the kid can do with improved QB play? I also wonder what he can do with s legit second receiving threat across from him to draw the double? I love this kid. So under the radar...

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Doug Baldwin: 51/788/4 85 targets

Seems like nobody likes this guy. Why?
Probably due to the low ceiling. He's a possession receiver on a team that will try to run the ball as much as possible. Possible he could post good numbers in a PPR league, but he's going to really be limited in redzone targets.
And for me, I'm not convinced Seattle has solved their QB problems.

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Doug Baldwin: 51/788/4 85 targets

Seems like nobody likes this guy. Why?
Probably due to the low ceiling. He's a possession receiver on a team that will try to run the ball as much as possible. Possible he could post good numbers in a PPR league, but he's going to really be limited in redzone targets.
On a team with Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst throwing to him. I wonder what the kid can do with improved QB play? I also wonder what he can do with s legit second receiving threat across from him to draw the double? I love this kid. So under the radar...
And he's a sub 4.5 guy, so he does have speed.

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I think Little will be a bust and I think Moore also takes a big step back.

You think this because of the QB upgrade, the RB upgrade, the OL upgrade, or all the WRs the Browns added?
You honestly think Weeden is going to be an upgrade over McCoy?

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Doug Baldwin: 51/788/4 85 targets

Seems like nobody likes this guy. Why?
Probably due to the low ceiling. He's a possession receiver on a team that will try to run the ball as much as possible. Possible he could post good numbers in a PPR league, but he's going to really be limited in redzone targets.
On a team with Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst throwing to him. I wonder what the kid can do with improved QB play? I also wonder what he can do with s legit second receiving threat across from him to draw the double? I love this kid. So under the radar...
And he's a sub 4.5 guy, so he does have speed.
He's fourth in yards and fourth in receptions of all the rookies last year but he had one of the highest reception percentages based on how many balls he pulled in compared to how many targets he had.

They may not have fixed their QB situation, but it can't get any worse, can it?

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I really like Denarious Moore. I think he'll be the best all-around receiver Oakland has. I expect 65-80 catches if he can stay healthy. Probably 8 scores.

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I thought I'd mention Salas who seemed to be doing ok until his injury. He's quite possibly a perpetual posession receiver but there appears to be logjam of mediocrity in STL st WR it seems, he'll be someone who is available late to take a flyer on.

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I think Little will be a bust and I think Moore also takes a big step back.

You think this because of the QB upgrade, the RB upgrade, the OL upgrade, or all the WRs the Browns added?
You honestly think Weeden is going to be an upgrade over McCoy?
Yep...won't be close IMO.

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I thought I'd mention Salas who seemed to be doing ok until his injury. He's quite possibly a perpetual posession receiver but there appears to be logjam of mediocrity in STL st WR it seems, he'll be someone who is available late to take a flyer on.

problem with him is the current regime has no ties to him. And they just drafted 2 WRs fairly high, he will be lucky to be on the team

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Buying:

AJ Green

Julio Jones

Torrey Smith

Doug Baldwin

Greg Little

Denarius Moore

Randall Cobb

Selling:

Titus Young

Vincent Brown

I think Ryan Broyles is a better talent than Titus Young and if Broyles is healthy he will be the number 2 in Detroit.

Vincent Brown hasn't convinced me yet. I think Randall Cobb can surpass James Jones on the depth chart his year, Jones is just to inconsistant for me. Torrey Smith has a chance to be the number 1 WR in Baltimore and what I hear he can.

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I really like Denarious Moore. I think he'll be the best all-around receiver Oakland has. I expect 65-80 catches if he can stay healthy. Probably 8 scores.

:goodposting: Waching him play before injury he seemed to have a good connection with Palmer, speed and a definite "my ball" mentality. I have him for similar numbers in 2012.

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Buying:

AJ Green

Julio Jones

Torrey Smith

Doug Baldwin

Greg Little

Denarius Moore

Randall Cobb

Selling:

Titus Young

  Vincent Brown

I think Ryan Broyles is a better talent than Titus Young and if Broyles is healthy he will be the number 2 in Detroit.

Vincent Brown hasn't convinced me yet. I think Randall Cobb can surpass James Jones on the depth chart his year, Jones is just to inconsistant for me. Torrey Smith has a chance to be the number 1 WR in Baltimore and what I hear he can.

The Lions have already said that Young is their outside receiver and Broyles will play the slot, if he's even healthy to start the year. I don't see Broyles starting over Young.

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Buying:

AJ Green

Julio Jones

Torrey Smith

Doug Baldwin

Greg Little

Denarius Moore

Randall Cobb

Selling:

Titus Young

  Vincent Brown

I think Ryan Broyles is a better talent than Titus Young and if Broyles is healthy he will be the number 2 in Detroit.

Vincent Brown hasn't convinced me yet. I think Randall Cobb can surpass James Jones on the depth chart his year, Jones is just to inconsistant for me. Torrey Smith has a chance to be the number 1 WR in Baltimore and what I hear he can.

The Lions have already said that Young is their outside receiver and Broyles will play the slot, if he's even healthy to start the year. I don't see Broyles starting over Young.
Some guys are more productive in the slot than outside guys, so even if Broyles doesn't technically start over Young, he could end up being more productive. Obviously Calvin is the #1, but Broyles could end with more catches than Young when he's healthy.

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No one mentions him, but in PPR, I think Jeremy Kerley is someone who will find his way mid-way through the stats of the aforementioned. He had a "fine" rookie year for a guy who was a possession receiver only used in the second half of the season. He cemented himself in a role where neither QB is accurate enough to hit the "fly guy", and he will benefit from multiple checkdowns.

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Guys I'm buying who might be less costly...

WR Greg Salas [st. Louis Rams]: Played in just 6 games last year but was productive (27 catches for 264 yards). Has a chance to lock up a slot role or inside WR role in 3-4 WR sets.

WR Leonard Hankerson (Washington Redskins): Coming off injury and only played 4 games but was similarly productive (13 catches for 163 yards). Loved him coming in the draft and think he could be a steal.

WR Kealoha Pilares (Carolina Panthers): Was explosive as a KR last season and with the struggles of guys like Armanti Edwards, has a chance to see more time on the field as a receiver. Could find himself in a battle with Joe Adams and Armanti Edwards for a chance at the #3 or #4 WR role on the team.

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Lestar Jean - Houston

Completely off just about everyone's radar and you can pick him up for nothing - have quietly grabbed him in 4 leagues in rookie drafts, usually in the 4th round as he was unrostered in every league I am in.

Jean, although an undrafted free agent, was a training camp sensation (per reports DBs had trouble covering him) and looked good in one preseason game before being injured. It was rumored the injury was not that serious and he was placed on IR because the Texans thought they would lose him on waivers if they tried to move him to the PS.

I believe that he was the reason that Houston did not draft a WR early and why Jacoby Jones was expendable.

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I don't see why so many people are down on Vincent Brown. He could be the best WR in San Diego this year.

:goodposting: I am glad someone else out there is thinking!

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I'm agreeing with EBF on Clyde Gates. I think he has the best shot of all Miami's WR's to have at least a decent year and an upside for a real good year. You'll be able to get him real late and at that price I think he could be a sleeper that jumps out and then everyone wants to get him. A guy that could surprise everyone and help your team. I'd definitely take a late round flyer on him. We're always looking for that guy that no one suspects will bust out somewhat and Gates I feel could have the opportunity to do that.

I was hoping Gates would surprise last year, but now I am not so hopeful. He is an older guy, and so, his failure to step in and do more as a rookie is what makes me doubt that he will improve that much. You can expect a 20 or 21 year old to improve a ton. But a guy who is 26? He is already mature.

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I don't see why so many people are down on Vincent Brown. He could be the best WR in San Diego this year.

:goodposting: I am glad someone else out there is thinking!
Well at least there's three of us. He's already proven to Rivers that he'll do whatever it takes to make the catch when his number is called.With everyone seemingly so down on him, he seems the perfect buy-low right about now.

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WR Kealoha Pilares (Carolina Panthers): Was explosive as a KR last season and with the struggles of guys like Armanti Edwards, has a chance to see more time on the field as a receiver. Could find himself in a battle with Joe Adams and Armanti Edwards for a chance at the #3 or #4 WR role on the team.

Gettis will be the #3, but Pilares and Adams should probably battle for the #4 spot. Edwards is likely gone.

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