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DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: DeMarco Murray Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

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While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

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[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

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YES YES YES!!! Payer Spotlights are back!!!

Murray was an excellent surprise last season but just like in college he was injured and couldn't play the entire time after he won the starting job mainly due to injury with Felix Jones. They mirror each other and I think both of them will see plenty of action and time as long as they stay healthy. Clearly Murray at 100% is better than Felix in terms of starting at the RB1 spot. Felix is not an every down back but Murray has not yet proven that he is either. I worry about him staying healthy the entire season and that makes his asking price steep.

I see Murray at about 240/1,100/8TD, 30/240rec...that would be the ceiling for me. But more likely to me is something like 200/900/5 TD on the ground. Felix Jones also having 180-200 carries too. I feel you could see an RBBC in Dallas just like in years past.

If Murray stays healthy however, those ceiling numbers I posted would be very reachable in this style of offense. I'm concerned about the Dallas offense right now and while everyone is ready to push a lot of chips in with their skill position players...ask yourself how that has worked out for the last 4-5 years as Romo has been the QB in Dallas. There is more going on here than just Murray vs F.Jones so there is a lot you have to weigh with these guys.

 
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'Ministry of Pain said:
YES YES YES!!! Payer Spotlights are back!!!Murray was an excellent surprise last season but just like in college he was injured and couldn't play the entire time after he won the starting job mainly due to injury with Felix Jones. They mirror each other and I think both of them will see plenty of action and time as long as they stay healthy. Clearly Murray at 100% is better than Felix in terms of starting at the RB1 spot. Felix is not an every down back but Murray has not yet proven that he is either. I worry about him staying healthy the entire season and that makes his asking price steep. I see Murray at about 240/1,100/8TD, 30/240rec...that would be the ceiling for me. But more likely to me is something like 200/900/5 TD on the ground. Felix Jones also having 180-200 carries too. I feel you could see an RBBC in Dallas just like in years past. If Murray stays healthy however, those ceiling numbers I posted would be very reachable in this style of offense. I'm concerned about the Dallas offense right now and while everyone is ready to push a lot of chips in with their skill position players...ask yourself how that has worked out for the last 4-5 years as Romo has been the QB in Dallas. There is more going on here than just Murray vs F.Jones so there is a lot you have to weigh with these guys.
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Pretty much covers it. Very reasonable assessment compared to the crew that is laufding him as a sure fire top 5-10 RB, making the price for him way outside the comfort zone.To tack on to MOP re: the cowboy offense: They threw more and accounted for more of their TDs via the pass than any team I can recall. Its hard for me to see any cowboys RB currently on the roster being one of these guys that racks up 10-12 scores on the ground unless they hit a lot of homerun plays (which is doable with Murray or Felix, but not as likely as the traditional "give it to a guy like AP").
 
I like Murray and think he will be the lead RB this season for Dallas. His injury last season would have happened to any player who had their foot turned like he did in the pile, so I don't worry about him staying healthy.

 
The primary statistic that concerns me about the Cowboys running game is the following. In the last 2 seasons, they've scored just 15 TD's on the ground. In the same time period, they've passed for 62 TD's. Such a disparity seems to indicate a lack of confidence in short yardage situations. Even during Murray's remarkable 4 week stretch when he accumulated 682 YFS, he only had 2 TD's...one of which was a 91 yard run. And as the unquestioned starter in 7 games, he still only had those 2 TD's.

So I think that as a team, the Cowboys simply aren't a great bet to find the end zone much via the ground game and it's possible that Murray tops out at 6-7 TD's. Which means his YFS has to be significant to make up for the difference against other RB1's who are likely to hit the 10-11 mark (at least). IMO, this isn't so much a matter of the RB's ability as it is the mentality of the team and the effectiveness of the O-Line in goal-to-go situations...and quite frankly, my perception of this unit is that it's soft. Does it have some talent to work with...? Tyron Smith looks like a keeper, but aside from him and Doug Free who is IMO just OK...it's still a unit developing, versus developed.

That said, with Murray having emerged as a very good feature back when healthy, I think this allows the Cowboys to use Felix Jones situationally again...which given his failure as the feature back, probably suits him best. So, this does not appear to me to be a RBBC situation, but more of a primary/specialist situation where the workload distribution is 2:1.

So if Murray is able to stay healthy, I think 250-270 carries is most definitely within reach. However, Murray seemed to slow down as his workload increased prior to getting injured so his ability to withstand the pounding of a 16 game schedule is a valid concern, particularly since he had durability issues at Oklahoma.

At his current ADP in the mid 2nd round, I think he's pricey. He does have a high celing although not as high as some may think because of the TD issue. But his floor is low and RB's like Michael Turner or Stephen Jackson represent safer bets. If you've gone RB in Round 1 and plan to go RB in Round 2...I'd steer clear of Murray. But if you are trying to find gold in Round 2 at the RB1 position because you've spent your 1st rounder at another position, Murray represents a decent gamble.

Prediction: 258 carries, 1114 rushing yards, 6 TD's, 32 receptions 205 receiving yards, 1 TD.

 
'TheDirtyWord said:
However, Murray seemed to slow down as his workload increased prior to getting injured so his ability to withstand the pounding of a 16 game schedule is a valid concern
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I think what hurt Murray during a stretch is their fullback who blocks for him was having health issues and he missed several games. Having their fullback in and healthy made a big difference.
 
im going to chime in with the offensive line perspective. In my grading, the Dallas line is among the league's worst units. To be clear I am not some sort of Cowboys hater. There is a tremendous amount of shuffling and new starters etc. Outside of Tyron Smith (who was a RT last year and an RT at USC, now being asked to play LT) there is a lack of premium talent.

 
I would attribute the disparity in passing to running Tds more to the fact that Dallas has not had a great running game since Marion barbers early years in the league. Last year when murray was healthy and the starter murray did quite well statistically and performed like a top 5 fantasy back. I see no reason to believe that he cant repeat those ninbers over a full season if he is healthy and playing at a high level. Garret will use murray to take some pressure off romo and limit him forcing plays.

 
I think that Murray is a high-risk/high-reward pick in relation to his current ADP.

DAL loses Laurent Robinson in the passing game, but a healthy Miles Austin mitigates that... I also think that this is the year that Dez Bryant makes that leap forward into the elite status. Rushing TDs will be tough to come by, if recent history repeats itself again.\

My prediction

rushing: 225/1080/7

receiving: 35/280/1

But his ceiling could be higher, especially if DAL makes a concerted effort to rush the football. Also, DAL has improved on defense, especially in the backfield... this may mean less passing and more rushing if they are able to establish a lead.

 
I think the talent is obvious as a few huge games last year caught everyone's attention.

I still have hopes for him to be that featured back in Dallas that they have not really had since Smith but have to agree his floor is low due to durability issues which plagued him in college, the preseason and end of last year. Full year of OTA, training camp and pro doctors and trainers might be all he needs to sustain success.

That said I traded him in one of my dynasty leagues (where RB is a strength). His stock is higher than any rookie RB from 2011 so turning a 2nd round rookie pick of 2011 into a top 5 pick in 2012 (plus additional player/pick) is cashing out a nice profit. Buy low, sell high. Don't look back. :bye:

 
'rickyg said:
I would attribute the disparity in passing to running Tds more to the fact that Dallas has not had a great running game since Marion barbers early years in the league. Last year when murray was healthy and the starter murray did quite well statistically and performed like a top 5 fantasy back. I see no reason to believe that he cant repeat those ninbers over a full season if he is healthy and playing at a high level. Garret will use murray to take some pressure off romo and limit him forcing plays.
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In a league where passing is the alpha, omega, and all things in between, you think the Cowboys are going to take the ball out of their veteran QB's hands (and Dez/Witten/Austin's) and go old school and lean on a couple of backs that are known to have their share of injuries?
 
Demarco Murray has incredible skills.

He has sensational, no merely average or good but sensational vision. Once he gets to the second level he seems to have a perfect beed on evey defender and then he instantly makes the correct cut to get an angle. So the first thing I notice with his skill set is vision coupled with making instant cuts. Other guys may see something but they don't proccess and make the cuts that Murray makes.

Next, he has the, burst, speed, and explosion, to take it the distance.

He came in as the all-time leading scorer from Oklahoma so he can punch it in.

He has great hands so he can catch.

Bascially he is a legit three down back who can also score.

One other aspect is that even though he's tall he runs low AT FULL SPEED meaning in a near straight line he has a low center of gravity because he runs flat footed so this gives him a huge advantage because it allows him to make cuts at full speed to pull away from defenders.

His line needs upgrading but on sheer talent he is a top five running back. No question about it and if he is healthy he will blow up this year even with an iffy run blocking line.

 
How is Murray high risk unless you talk injury? At where he's being drafted and the number of touches he will get its hard to miss. His upside is enormous but his worst case is still startable. I like that.

 
Another tough one. While I hear what people are saying about the Pass/Rush TD disparity, the reality is that they've missed the playoffs for the last two years in a division that was pretty winnable. Murray has the talent to be an electrifying player and like a few others have said, injury is his biggest limitation. Being said, I'm happy to take the risk if he's available to me in the second or third rounds of redraft, knowing that his upside is to be a top five RB.

Ceiling: 2000 combined yards, 12 TDs

Forecast: 1600 and 9

Floor: Injury.

 
I think a lot of DeMarco's value this season will come from the passing game, a lot more so than what people are expecting in here so far. As most of you have mentioned, the Cowboys have very much liked passing the ball over the last few seasons and there really isn't much evidence to suggest a change in that regard. Fortunately for DeMarco Murray owners, DeMarco is a fantastic pass catcher for a running back, with 157 career receptions in college (the most I can recall a RB having in a NCAA career in a long time), including 71 in his senior season. He even had a 4 game stretch where he had 4,6,6,4 receptions in each game respectively. I realize though for the most part DeMarco struggled in the passing game last season, but with a full offseason to work on his game and actually getting serious touches in training camp combined his past success catching footballs in college, I think he's shown he's more than capable of being a significant asset for the Cowboys in the passing game in the immediate future; and I think 40 receptions will be his floor if he can stay healthy all year.

Having said all that, I don't think DeMarco is that dangerous of a runner. He's got excellent vision and good size, but he doesn't have many other elite skills running the football. Because of that, I'm expecting a full 1.0 yard dropoff from his yards per carry to 4.5, at minimum, probably more. Another good thing for fantasy owners though is that his two best running qualities, size and vision, are arguably the 2 most important for goal line rushes, so I'm also expecting a nice boost for Cowboys rushing TD totals compared to when Felix Jones was their go to back.

As for projections, I'll go: 270/1135/8 rushing, and 50/425/1 receiving

 
Love the player, but raise an eyebrow over situational stuff that is out of his control(Felix still on the roster, OL not really that fantastic, minor concerns over durability, etc). On the positive side of the ledger, Jerry Jones having an absolute woodrow for him doesn't hurt and it seems like the Cowboy brass has soured a good bit on Felix Jones.

Last year's busted leg doesn't really bother me, freak stuff happens, but Murray seemed to always have nagging stuff at Oklahoma, though he did play through most of them, but I could see him missing a couple games if that sort of thing continues.

More of a concern to me than any of that stuff is that his non-conference schedule isn't exactly a cakewalk, on paper, as far as running the football goes(AFC North, IIRC).

If he winds up missing a game or three I could see....

13 games:

200-215 carries, 35-45 catches, 1100-1300 total yards, 5-6 total TDs.

Now, having said all that, I think Murray has the talent level to comfortably outstrip that prediction. Particularly if the Dallas OLine play improves. Their OL gets better and Murray plays 15-16 games? 1,700+ total yards and near double digit total TDs would not be a complete surprise. The Dallas pass offense is certainly good enough to eliminate teams from stacking the box. If they can begin to run block better Murray could go nuts in a scenario like that.

 
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wow. seeing a lot of LOFTY expectations here.

Several people calling him a top 5 RB? So basically he is better than EVERYONE not named McCoy, Foster, Rice, and Peterson? everybody? Chris Johnson, DMAC, Forte, Richardson, Charles, Ryan matthews, SJAX...just immediately is more talented than everyone...

1700+ total yards. In a league that throws more than ever, we put him in a category where guys like Gore has only done this once. Guys like Peterson, Brian Westbrook (the ultimate run AND catch guy in his time), SJAX have only done 2 times in their careers.

To do it in his 2nd season? Ok, now we are talking about guys who have HOF beside their names (sanders, Emmitt)...

Seems a little much on the expectation side. Basically, the expectations you are rolling out for him are the kinds of stats you are projecting for this guy, this early, are the kinds of stats we have seen from LT, Terrell Davis, and Arian foster over the last 13-14 years, and thats it. It might be doable because, well, you just never know. But that's quite a perch you are putting this guy on.

 
1700+ total yards. In a league that throws more than ever, we put him in a category where guys like Gore has only done this once. Guys like Peterson, Brian Westbrook (the ultimate run AND catch guy in his time), SJAX have only done 2 times in their careers.
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If you were referring to me, I really said "1,700 total yards....if absolutely everything breaks right for him from a health/situational standpoint."Hence the actual prediction I made, which apparently you missed...1100-1300 total yards and about 5 scores on around 240-250 total touches. So, basically RB15-16 in standard PPR scoring. I expect he'll be a strong RB2.

Everything else was conjecture about what his talent level could potentially produce, if the Cowboys OL took a quantum leap and he remained healthy, and the workhorse, for all 16 games. Not what it would produce. I thought that was pretty obvious. I guess it wasn't.

 
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length is not good. brevity

Probably will have weeks where he wins game for his teams, but likely misses a few or gets light action due to injury

capabale backup in Felix

210 x 4.8 = 1008 rushing, maybe 20 catches x 7 ypc = 140 rec, and I'm going with 12 TDs since there is no way Felix gets love at the stripe.

 
'5-ish Finkle said:
1700+ total yards. In a league that throws more than ever, we put him in a category where guys like Gore has only done this once. Guys like Peterson, Brian Westbrook (the ultimate run AND catch guy in his time), SJAX have only done 2 times in their careers.
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If you were referring to me, I really said "1,700 total yards....if absolutely everything breaks right for him from a health/situational standpoint."Hence the actual prediction I made, which apparently you missed...1100-1300 total yards and about 5 scores on around 240-250 total touches. So, basically RB15-16 in standard PPR scoring. I expect he'll be a strong RB2.

Everything else was conjecture about what his talent level could potentially produce, if the Cowboys OL took a quantum leap and he remained healthy, and the workhorse, for all 16 games. Not what it would produce. I thought that was pretty obvious. I guess it wasn't.
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I'm a little more bullish on his potential if he stays healthy all season and everything goes his way, but let's be real, a 1700 combined yardage season isn't unique. A great season, top five caliber? Yes. But not a rarity. At least three RBs have done it for every year since 2000 except one (2007 with two). The actual occurences have been dwindling, but that doesn't mean an electrifying presence can't get there just because it's his second year, something accomplished by Gore, SJax, Edge, Rice, Portis, and Jamaal Lewis. Sure, it's a stretch, but that's why it's his ceiling for some. As to whether I'd put him in front of guys, not necessarily, but if I could be guaranteed health through the year for Murray only, in redraft, I'd put him behind only a few backs specifically because his upside is strong. At my 1600 yard forecast, as recently as 2010 saw as many as 11 backs hit that mark. If the argument is that he won't be healthy enough to see those kind of numbers, that holds water. We can dispute whether he will get the work or whether he's talented enough to take advantage. But if the argument is that it is such a rarity that this happens, I disagree.

 
I can understand why there is a disparity in rankings here. Lot's of moving parts in this situation and little track record to rely on. Here is my take on Murray, the O-line and possible changes to the offense. Some of what I will post is fact and othere is pure specualtion on my part.

In general, it was hard to not hard to notice Murray during his mini breakout during the middle of last year. From what I witnessed, he showed patience in setting up blocks and had tremendous vision and always seemed to go the right way. He ran with power and could win battles to get yards after contact. I was also impressed with his pass catching skills and ability to pick up the blitz. These are all factors that will mean a larger share of playing time for Murray imo... Felix is in his last year of his contract and the writing is on the wall for him.

As mentioned by other posters already, there is absolute reason to be concerned about the Oline. This unit was awful last year. I cant remember the exact total, but I know Dallas had single digit rushings td's last year. Tyron Smith is impressive, but the other 4 starters are average to below average players. Free could rebound at RT where he returns to a position where he showed well in previous years. The interior of the line is a concern, there are a couple of free agent additions as well as some project players that are competing for a starting job. The good news is there is 7-9 guys fighting for 3 spots. Also, of note, Bill Callahan joins the team as the Oline coach replacing Houck. This is a positive. I don't expect the group to instantly become elite. In the same breath its not unrealistic to expect at least minor improvement and greater consistency from the front 5.

More then anything,I am very optimistic about the addition of FB Lawrence Vickers. This dude loves to block and has had success blocoking for other productive RB's. Also, keep in mind that the Cowboys lost third WR Laurent Robinson and there is very little depth replacing him. If Robinson had stayed, I think we would have seen a ton of 3 and 4 WR sets. Not anymore. I believe we will start to see more of the old school Cowboys formations with 2 WRs, 1TE and a FB/RB combo. Garrett will show us a more conservative offense that is more focused on running the ball effectively to open things up for Romo. He will greatly benefit from greater time in the pocket when defenses have to respect the run game- other then that stupid delay draw they run all the time.

Personally, I pay little attention to injuries when forecasting so take that into account when reading mine. I acknowledge the concern and history as it relates to Murray.

Overall-it's hard not to be bullish on Murray and his potential.

1275 rushing yards

7tds

220 receiving yards

2tds

 
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I wouldn't call him overrated, he was clearly talented coming out of college and it translated very well in his 1st year. Considering he didn't start until Week 6, his late season injury, and the fact that this team couldn't hold on to a lead and shift into a "closing offense" in the 4th, I expect him to improve significantly in 2012. He will start from Week 1 in 2012 and this is a revamped D so he'll see most of his touches in the 4th. His TD numbers will prevent him from being elite however, as Jason Garrett doesn't hesitate to throw the ball in the redzone.

230 Attempts, 1300 Rushing yards, 5 TDs

40 Receptions, 320 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

 
Ok, lets take the 7 starts Murray had before he got hurt in the Giants game (in which he was looking good on his first 5 carries if it means anything). Lets ignore yardage for a minute since he had that monstrous game against the Rams that blow the curve- he averaged 19 carries per game and a little over 4 targets, 3 receptions (which i think is a bit low- he didnt catch any when he was romping on the rams for instance, didnt need to). I think these are fairly reasonable expectations, if perhaps on the low end of the spectrum. That equates to 304 carries (which is too high), and 48 receptions (which again i think is a touch low).

So how does that compare to someone like Tiki Barber with a similar skill set? IE- can those number support a top 10 back? The answer is, yes they can. Barber was the #2 back in standard scoring in 2004 with 322 carries and 52 receptions. Demonstrably Murray will have the opportunity to put up top 10 numbers... of course whether he will or not depends deeply on if he is any good at the position.

I guess my point is that, barring injury, you shouldn't worry about Murray getting enough touches to be effective. You should worry about what he does with those touches, and ultimately that is going to come down to touchdowns. Murray could drop down to a more pedestrian 4.0 y.c and should still end up with 1500 all purpose yards without stretching the imagination too much. Thats the kind of solid number Duce Staley and Tiki Barber put up regularly in the early days, and with very modest TD production it puts you in the RB 8-12 category (Ryan Mathews was RB7 with 1546 and 6).

Lets recall that this is a passing league. There was 1 RB with more than 300 carries this season. In 2006 there were 9. The bottom line is there are about 4 elite backs, a couple of more throwback cowbells, and then a mosh of all purpose kind of guys. Demarco Murray at worst should be in midst of that pack. 1500 AP and 6 TDS will probably make you at least RB12, and thats my floor on Murray without injury. His ceiling we saw against St Louis, but theres no point in dwelling on it.

Productive floor, high ceiling- 285 carries, 1282y, 6 TD, 52 rec, 364y rec, 2 rec TD. Those number aren't flashy, but they hold up. More importantly I would not be shocked to see 2000 AP yards and double digit TDs. I don't expect it, but the potential is there.

 
'sspunisher said:
I wouldn't call him overrated, he was clearly talented coming out of college and it translated very well in his 1st year. Considering he didn't start until Week 6, his late season injury, and the fact that this team couldn't hold on to a lead and shift into a "closing offense" in the 4th, I expect him to improve significantly in 2012. He will start from Week 1 in 2012 and this is a revamped D so he'll see most of his touches in the 4th. His TD numbers will prevent him from being elite however, as Jason Garrett doesn't hesitate to throw the ball in the redzone. 230 Attempts, 1300 Rushing yards, 5 TDs40 Receptions, 320 Receiving Yards, 1 TD
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wow you are projecting him to have 5.6 ypc. thats insane
 
'bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
'sspunisher said:
I wouldn't call him overrated, he was clearly talented coming out of college and it translated very well in his 1st year. Considering he didn't start until Week 6, his late season injury, and the fact that this team couldn't hold on to a lead and shift into a "closing offense" in the 4th, I expect him to improve significantly in 2012. He will start from Week 1 in 2012 and this is a revamped D so he'll see most of his touches in the 4th. His TD numbers will prevent him from being elite however, as Jason Garrett doesn't hesitate to throw the ball in the redzone. 230 Attempts, 1300 Rushing yards, 5 TDs40 Receptions, 320 Receiving Yards, 1 TD
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wow you are projecting him to have 5.6 ypc. thats insane
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Agreed. If he breaks a 5.0 YPC over a full season of carries I'd be stunned. I'm anticipating a YPC under 4.5.
 
I'll try again today as my post got eaten yesterday.

Projections for Murray require a significant amount of context. Lets start more generally and then work towards more specifically.

Garrett as OC runs an offense similar to Norv Turner and Ernie Zampese. It shares elements of Mike Martz and Don Coryell. He wants to pound the rock and also beat the defense over the top with the pass. The Cowboys Super Bowl years of the 90s is what Garrett would love to run. Emmitt Smith getting loads of rushing yards and TDs. Aikman to Irvin/Harper/Novacek down the field. Of course, that offense had one of the best OL in history. But that's the model he wants to run.

When he first became OC in Dallas, he had a lot of the pieces to run that offense. TO and Terry Glenn attacking down the field. MB3 and Julius Jones sharing carries and getting lots of yards and TDs. And an above average OL that opened running lanes and gave Romo time to throw.

But that OL got old fast. They were dominated in a playoff loss to Minny after the '09 season. The line showed dramatically more age in 2010 when the whole team melted down. The offense, particularly the passing game, got shorter and shorter. More 3 step drops. Check downs. Fewer and Fewer 7 step drops. Defenses crowded the line more, not fearing gettign beat deep so much. Short yardage became a dissaster for the Dallas offense with the OL unable to win consistently. Garrett responded with short passes and trickery.

Between '10 and '11, the OL was almost completely turned over. Out with Flozell Adams, Andre Gurode, Bigg Davis, and Marc Columbo. In with Tyron Smith (a big upgrade), UDFA Costa, 7th rounder Bill Nagy. The only holdover was 30-something Kyle Kosier, who has been released this past offseason. 2011 saw Dallas attempt to replace the big slow behemoths with smaller, agile guys. And while the more agile guys made contact more often than their predecessors, they were routinely physically overmatched especially on the interior. Dallas could still not run the ball in short yardage situations nor could they pass protect for long. Garrett responded the only way he could by continuing to pass short. Early in the season, they were absolutely dominated inside by Wilfork of NE and Justin Smith of SF. It was so bad, they signed guys off the street to start.

A perfect storm of events occurred for DeMarco Murray. He got his chance to play against the Rams. And it was the first time all seasson the OL wasnt totally overmatched. He made great advantage of that opportunity. he also got the benefit of the lone FB, Tony Fiametta, getting healthy. Felix got to deal with the Wilforks and Smiths and an over-extending lead blocking TE while Murray got the Rams and a real FB. And throughout the season, he showed that he has the ability to play well in the NFL.

Metrics by KC Joyner show that Dallas has 2 RBs that are pro bowl level based on yards gained when they have adequate blocking. DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones. Yes, Felix' metrics are very much pro bowl caliber, just a shade behind Murray's. I recall Joyner's numbers as saying Murray was 8.2 and Felix 8.0. Chris Johnson in his 2009 huge year was 9.0. 8.0 and above is top end stuff.

So looking forward to 2012, I see 2 key issues. 1) how good will the OL be? and 2) how much does Murray share with Felix?

Dallas signed 2 FA guards in the offseason. I can't profess to know anything about them prior to them signing with Dallas. But I have to assume they have NFL caliber strength, which is an improvement over last sesason's holdovers. Dallas is also flopping sides for tackles Tyron Smith and Doug Free. Costa probably remains at center, but that's uncertain. So Dallas will have at least 4 and possibly 5 new starters on the OL. No chance at continuity. The salient question is whether this OL will be a material upgrade over the last 2 seasons. As a Cowboy fan, I sure hope so. But if I'm being honest, I have to say, "I doubt it, at least materially."

So despite 2 consecutive seasons with almost complete turnover on the OL, you have to think the overall rushing numbers from the last 2 years are probably the best indicator for 2012. There may be some upside, but I would not bet on it. In 2011, the Dallas backs had 369/1720/4 and 77/507/0 receiving. In 2010, they had 364/1781/8 and 76/608/1.

I'll estimate 2012 Dallas HBs to be 365/1750/6 and 77/550/1.

Now how to allocate these totals. As mentioned, Dallas has 2 top-caliber RBs. They both have lengthy injury histories. Both are versatile ball carriers and pass catchers. I'll give Murray the short yardage edge and Felix the pass blocking edge. Last year early, Felix was "the guy". Then he got hurt. Murray became "the guy". And Felix backed him up and played 3rd downs once he got healthy again. Then Murray got hurt and Felix took the lead role again. For 2012, if both are healthy, Murray is likely the lead back and Felix the 3rd down/COP back. Obviously, both have had trouble playing a full season so anything can happen.

But I'd guess 55% of the carries for Murray, 40% for Felix, and 5% for RB3. Reverse the numbers for the catches.

So that makes it:

Murray: 200/960/4 and 30/220/0

Felix: 145/700/2 and 42/300/1

RB3: 20/90/0 and 5/30/0

 
'5-ish Finkle said:
1700+ total yards. In a league that throws more than ever, we put him in a category where guys like Gore has only done this once. Guys like Peterson, Brian Westbrook (the ultimate run AND catch guy in his time), SJAX have only done 2 times in their careers.
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If you were referring to me, I really said "1,700 total yards....if absolutely everything breaks right for him from a health/situational standpoint."Hence the actual prediction I made, which apparently you missed...1100-1300 total yards and about 5 scores on around 240-250 total touches. So, basically RB15-16 in standard PPR scoring. I expect he'll be a strong RB2.

Everything else was conjecture about what his talent level could potentially produce, if the Cowboys OL took a quantum leap and he remained healthy, and the workhorse, for all 16 games. Not what it would produce. I thought that was pretty obvious. I guess it wasn't.
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What you ACTUALLY said (and I missed nothing) was:13 games:

200-215 carries, 35-45 catches, 1100-1300 total yards, 5-6 total TDs.

Now, having said all that, I think Murray has the talent level to comfortably outstrip that prediction. Particularly if the Dallas OLine play improves. Their OL gets better and Murray plays 15-16 games? 1,700+ total yards and near double digit total TDs would not be a complete surprise. The Dallas pass offense is certainly good enough to eliminate teams from stacking the box. If they can begin to run block better Murray could go nuts in a scenario like that.

So, you're not surprised if he hits 1700+ and double digit TDs if he plays all 16. Otherwise, you expect the other stats.

Again, the point is to point out that some people are putting him on a pretty high pedestal that isn't very common. we get it: this thread (and the ones that have been similar to it) are pretty clear that this is a player that has people gravitating to extremes as some people think he is an incarnate of Walter Payton and others think its highly unlikely he can live up to such a lofty status. I guess that's why they play the games. We will see.

 
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'johnadams said:
'5-ish Finkle said:
1700+ total yards. In a league that throws more than ever, we put him in a category where guys like Gore has only done this once. Guys like Peterson, Brian Westbrook (the ultimate run AND catch guy in his time), SJAX have only done 2 times in their careers.
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If you were referring to me, I really said "1,700 total yards....if absolutely everything breaks right for him from a health/situational standpoint."Hence the actual prediction I made, which apparently you missed...1100-1300 total yards and about 5 scores on around 240-250 total touches. So, basically RB15-16 in standard PPR scoring. I expect he'll be a strong RB2.

Everything else was conjecture about what his talent level could potentially produce, if the Cowboys OL took a quantum leap and he remained healthy, and the workhorse, for all 16 games. Not what it would produce. I thought that was pretty obvious. I guess it wasn't.
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I'm a little more bullish on his potential if he stays healthy all season and everything goes his way, but let's be real, a 1700 combined yardage season isn't unique. A great season, top five caliber? Yes. But not a rarity. At least three RBs have done it for every year since 2000 except one (2007 with two). The actual occurences have been dwindling, but that doesn't mean an electrifying presence can't get there just because it's his second year, something accomplished by Gore, SJax, Edge, Rice, Portis, and Jamaal Lewis. Sure, it's a stretch, but that's why it's his ceiling for some. As to whether I'd put him in front of guys, not necessarily, but if I could be guaranteed health through the year for Murray only, in redraft, I'd put him behind only a few backs specifically because his upside is strong. At my 1600 yard forecast, as recently as 2010 saw as many as 11 backs hit that mark. If the argument is that he won't be healthy enough to see those kind of numbers, that holds water. We can dispute whether he will get the work or whether he's talented enough to take advantage. But if the argument is that it is such a rarity that this happens, I disagree.
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How many of those occurences are by the same small number of players doing it repeatedly (e.g., Foster the past two years)? Point being: its an achievement that is reserved for the best of the best or at least uncommonly better players of the league and it just seems a little pre-mature to annoint this guy as a top 5 Rb in the league based on a small sample size that ended exactly as was predicted by the people that were skeptical of drafting him warned, playing on a team that passes so much and runs so little at the goal line. For me, it just strikes me funny that a guy like Murray can play half a dozen games and get this kind of hype and following behind them, yet a guy like foster played a whole season and led the NFL in every major RB category when he came out and was heavily debated the next year. I'm not saying Murray can't be everything that a lot of you guys that are bullish on him say he WILL be. I'm just surprised by how easily it is assumed he will be.

 
'Ridgelake said:
I'll try again today as my post got eaten yesterday.

Projections for Murray require a significant amount of context. Lets start more generally and then work towards more specifically.

Garrett as OC runs an offense similar to Norv Turner and Ernie Zampese. It shares elements of Mike Martz and Don Coryell. He wants to pound the rock and also beat the defense over the top with the pass. The Cowboys Super Bowl years of the 90s is what Garrett would love to run. Emmitt Smith getting loads of rushing yards and TDs. Aikman to Irvin/Harper/Novacek down the field. Of course, that offense had one of the best OL in history. But that's the model he wants to run.

When he first became OC in Dallas, he had a lot of the pieces to run that offense. TO and Terry Glenn attacking down the field. MB3 and Julius Jones sharing carries and getting lots of yards and TDs. And an above average OL that opened running lanes and gave Romo time to throw.

But that OL got old fast. They were dominated in a playoff loss to Minny after the '09 season. The line showed dramatically more age in 2010 when the whole team melted down. The offense, particularly the passing game, got shorter and shorter. More 3 step drops. Check downs. Fewer and Fewer 7 step drops. Defenses crowded the line more, not fearing gettign beat deep so much. Short yardage became a dissaster for the Dallas offense with the OL unable to win consistently. Garrett responded with short passes and trickery.

Between '10 and '11, the OL was almost completely turned over. Out with Flozell Adams, Andre Gurode, Bigg Davis, and Marc Columbo. In with Tyron Smith (a big upgrade), UDFA Costa, 7th rounder Bill Nagy. The only holdover was 30-something Kyle Kosier, who has been released this past offseason. 2011 saw Dallas attempt to replace the big slow behemoths with smaller, agile guys. And while the more agile guys made contact more often than their predecessors, they were routinely physically overmatched especially on the interior. Dallas could still not run the ball in short yardage situations nor could they pass protect for long. Garrett responded the only way he could by continuing to pass short. Early in the season, they were absolutely dominated inside by Wilfork of NE and Justin Smith of SF. It was so bad, they signed guys off the street to start.

A perfect storm of events occurred for DeMarco Murray. He got his chance to play against the Rams. And it was the first time all seasson the OL wasnt totally overmatched. He made great advantage of that opportunity. he also got the benefit of the lone FB, Tony Fiametta, getting healthy. Felix got to deal with the Wilforks and Smiths and an over-extending lead blocking TE while Murray got the Rams and a real FB. And throughout the season, he showed that he has the ability to play well in the NFL.

Metrics by KC Joyner show that Dallas has 2 RBs that are pro bowl level based on yards gained when they have adequate blocking. DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones. Yes, Felix' metrics are very much pro bowl caliber, just a shade behind Murray's. I recall Joyner's numbers as saying Murray was 8.2 and Felix 8.0. Chris Johnson in his 2009 huge year was 9.0. 8.0 and above is top end stuff.

So looking forward to 2012, I see 2 key issues. 1) how good will the OL be? and 2) how much does Murray share with Felix?

Dallas signed 2 FA guards in the offseason. I can't profess to know anything about them prior to them signing with Dallas. But I have to assume they have NFL caliber strength, which is an improvement over last sesason's holdovers. Dallas is also flopping sides for tackles Tyron Smith and Doug Free. Costa probably remains at center, but that's uncertain. So Dallas will have at least 4 and possibly 5 new starters on the OL. No chance at continuity. The salient question is whether this OL will be a material upgrade over the last 2 seasons. As a Cowboy fan, I sure hope so. But if I'm being honest, I have to say, "I doubt it, at least materially."

So despite 2 consecutive seasons with almost complete turnover on the OL, you have to think the overall rushing numbers from the last 2 years are probably the best indicator for 2012. There may be some upside, but I would not bet on it. In 2011, the Dallas backs had 369/1720/4 and 77/507/0 receiving. In 2010, they had 364/1781/8 and 76/608/1.

I'll estimate 2012 Dallas HBs to be 365/1750/6 and 77/550/1.

Now how to allocate these totals. As mentioned, Dallas has 2 top-caliber RBs. They both have lengthy injury histories. Both are versatile ball carriers and pass catchers. I'll give Murray the short yardage edge and Felix the pass blocking edge. Last year early, Felix was "the guy". Then he got hurt. Murray became "the guy". And Felix backed him up and played 3rd downs once he got healthy again. Then Murray got hurt and Felix took the lead role again. For 2012, if both are healthy, Murray is likely the lead back and Felix the 3rd down/COP back. Obviously, both have had trouble playing a full season so anything can happen.

But I'd guess 55% of the carries for Murray, 40% for Felix, and 5% for RB3. Reverse the numbers for the catches.

So that makes it:

Murray: 200/960/4 and 30/220/0

Felix: 145/700/2 and 42/300/1

RB3: 20/90/0 and 5/30/0
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Thanks for taking the time to re-write this. Very well done. I agree with you that Felix (IF) he can stay healthy (same IF with Murray) will play a big role. When Murray went down and Felix took over again he looked electric and I was scared everytime he touched the ball as a Giants fan. I cant believe the Cowboys will just push him to the side completely and make Murray the man.
 
My projected top five fantasy RBs for 2012

Top five fantasy running backs

1. Ray Rice

If he stays healthy I think he'll be the top fantasy RB.

2. Ryan Mathews

Guy really startedt to come on last year, 5.8 yards per carry on only 222 carries. I see a bump in carries with a decrease in APC but I like him this year.

3. Chris Johnson

If he has his head screwed on and their isn't too much disturbence from any possible QB switch then I think CJ cruises into a top-three fantasy RB production.

4. Trent Richardson

I think he's vastly under-rated by the fantasy community. If Ray Rice can produce behind his line then I feel T-Rich has potential to explode behing one of the most under rated O-Lines in the NFL. Trent Richardson makes Cleveland fantasy relevant again.

5. Demarco Murray

Over rated? BS. De-Mo is a legit three-down RB who started to get used in the passing game and I think he will get the goal line carries to make him a SOLID top-five fantasy RB. In his first two games where he was used he only had one reception for a negative -2 yards. Over the next four games he averaged five receptions per game. He also averaged over 20 carries per game and over 5 yards per carry even if you throw out his first two starts where he had an average per carry of around 10 yards per carry. He only had 165 carries but he didn't have eight starts. He's good for at least 250-280 carries with an additional 45-55 receptions. I DO NOT ANCTICIPATE a full yard less per carry. How ridiculous to assume a full frick'n yard less per carry? Insane. He's good for 4.6 to 4.8 yards per carry

Those who were considered but just missed and in NO PARTICULAR ORDER.

Arian Foster can do it all but I feel he is going to give carries away to Ben Tate.

MJD is another guy who can do it all but I feel he the guys listed ahead of him will have slightly better seasons.

Darren McFadden is extremely talented but he hasn't been able to put together anything with consistency due to injury.

LeSean McCoy multi dimensional and a true weapon receing but Mike Vick gets many carries that would otherwise go to McCoy when he takes off either on designed rushes or on scrambles where McCoy would have had a shot to get a reception.

Adrian Peterson. I own him and I'm leery about him getting as much work as he would automatically assume. Toby Garhart proved capable and I think the Vikes will not risk over-using AdP and that we will see a bit more RBBC at the start of the season then some seem to assume.

Matt Forte. Disclaimer, don't put any significance on Forte being listed last, their is no order on the guys who didn't make the five list. Love Matt but always am a bit unsure of any RB who talks contract in the media. Da Bears didn't address that putrid O-Line and I think, check that, I KNOW Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler will re-forge that alliance that they had in Denver and take at least a couple of reception opportuninties away from Forte.

I do see DeMarco Murray as a legit top-five fantasy RB. He's the unquestioned started in Dallas and he will get more receptions than many are projecting and I think he gets the goal line carries that never materialized last year. MEGA-UNDER RATED fantasy RB.

 
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Talent wise, Murray's the real deal. But with Felix Jones in the mix and Murray's season ending injury last year, the Cowboys would be smart to split up the load and keep both fresh....great for them, bad for Murray's fantasy prospects. That along with the offense going through Romo, I have a bad feeling about taking Murray in an early round this year.

230 car, 1050 yards, 6 TD

30 rec, 250 yds, 1 TD

 
'fightingillini said:
Talent wise, Murray's the real deal. But with Felix Jones in the mix and Murray's season ending injury last year, the Cowboys would be smart to split up the load and keep both fresh....great for them, bad for Murray's fantasy prospects. That along with the offense going through Romo, I have a bad feeling about taking Murray in an early round this year.230 car, 1050 yards, 6 TD30 rec, 250 yds, 1 TD
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Felix Jones isn't a threat to DeMarco Murray.Murray runs better, is a legit threat to score, and Murray supplanted him as the receiving back. Felix makes too much money and it wouldn't suprise me if he isn't even on the roster. He got his chance and did nothing with it, he's too overpriced to be a back-up and occasional third down back.The Felix luv was out of control after Dallas took him in the first round. People kept a candle in the window for him and they simply cannot accept the fact his days are numbered if not over in Dallas.
 
'Bracie Smathers said:
'fightingillini said:
Talent wise, Murray's the real deal. But with Felix Jones in the mix and Murray's season ending injury last year, the Cowboys would be smart to split up the load and keep both fresh....great for them, bad for Murray's fantasy prospects. That along with the offense going through Romo, I have a bad feeling about taking Murray in an early round this year.230 car, 1050 yards, 6 TD30 rec, 250 yds, 1 TD
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Felix Jones isn't a threat to DeMarco Murray.Murray runs better, is a legit threat to score, and Murray supplanted him as the receiving back. Felix makes too much money and it wouldn't suprise me if he isn't even on the roster. He got his chance and did nothing with it, he's too overpriced to be a back-up and occasional third down back.The Felix luv was out of control after Dallas took him in the first round. People kept a candle in the window for him and they simply cannot accept the fact his days are numbered if not over in Dallas.
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2 games after Murray got hurt before Felix got hurt again Week 14 vs. NYG Rushing: 16 / 106 / 0 Receiving: 6 / 31 / 0 on 7 targets Week 15 vs. TB Rushing: 22 / 108 / 0 Receiving: 3 / 23 / 0 on 4 targetsThats not really showing 'nothing'. Its all about who stays healthy. Im not saying Felix wins the lead back role. Thats definitely Murray, but I think if both are healthy at the same time then maybe Felix gets a series to himself here and there and 3rd down work. If nothing else just to keep Murray fresh.
 
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'Bracie Smathers said:
'fightingillini said:
Talent wise, Murray's the real deal. But with Felix Jones in the mix and Murray's season ending injury last year, the Cowboys would be smart to split up the load and keep both fresh....great for them, bad for Murray's fantasy prospects. That along with the offense going through Romo, I have a bad feeling about taking Murray in an early round this year.

230 car, 1050 yards, 6 TD

30 rec, 250 yds, 1 TD
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Felix Jones isn't a threat to DeMarco Murray.Murray runs better, is a legit threat to score, and Murray supplanted him as the receiving back. Felix makes too much money and it wouldn't suprise me if he isn't even on the roster. He got his chance and did nothing with it, he's too overpriced to be a back-up and occasional third down back.

The Felix luv was out of control after Dallas took him in the first round. People kept a candle in the window for him and they simply cannot accept the fact his days are numbered if not over in Dallas.
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Really? Thats a strong opinion, neither guy can stay healthy, IMO Dallas needs both on the roster for depth purposes. I wouldnt be surprised if they let him walk after this season (felix that is) he will be a UFA.

 
'Bronx Bomber said:
'Bracie Smathers said:
'fightingillini said:
Talent wise, Murray's the real deal. But with Felix Jones in the mix and Murray's season ending injury last year, the Cowboys would be smart to split up the load and keep both fresh....great for them, bad for Murray's fantasy prospects. That along with the offense going through Romo, I have a bad feeling about taking Murray in an early round this year.230 car, 1050 yards, 6 TD30 rec, 250 yds, 1 TD
Click to expand...
Felix Jones isn't a threat to DeMarco Murray.Murray runs better, is a legit threat to score, and Murray supplanted him as the receiving back. Felix makes too much money and it wouldn't suprise me if he isn't even on the roster. He got his chance and did nothing with it, he's too overpriced to be a back-up and occasional third down back.The Felix luv was out of control after Dallas took him in the first round. People kept a candle in the window for him and they simply cannot accept the fact his days are numbered if not over in Dallas.
Click to expand...
2 games after Murray got hurt before Felix got hurt again Week 14 vs. NYG Rushing: 16 / 106 / 0 Receiving: 6 / 31 / 0 on 7 targets Week 15 vs. TB Rushing: 22 / 108 / 0 Receiving: 3 / 23 / 0 on 4 targetsThats not really showing 'nothing. Its all about who stays healthy. Im not saying Felix wins the lead back role. Thats definitely Murray, but I think if both are healthy at the same time then maybe Felix gets a series ti himself here and there and 3 down work. If nothing else just to keep Murray fresh.
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Felix is a China doll and that is why the year before Murray, when Felix had no competition for the starting gig, Garret only allowed Felix to carry the ball over 16 times once. Felix only scored 1 TD rushing the entire year.In the first game that he got significant carries, Demarco scored the very first time he touched the ball. It took Garret two games before he made Murray the third down back and I think this year he gets goal line carries that Dallas had simply took away from the running game and gave to Romo and the passing game. Felix is inferior in every way to DeMarco Murray. He's not a starting NFL RB. Their was a rumor he was on the trading block prior to the draft and it makes sense that Dallas would want to move-on from Jones. He had his shot as a starter and disappointed. I think even the most ardent Felix Jones pimp would have to concede he isn't a viable starting NFL RB and that he never will be again. It wouldn't suprise me if he's not on the Cowboy roster on opening day.
 
'Bracie Smathers said:
'Bronx Bomber said:
'Bracie Smathers said:
'fightingillini said:
Talent wise, Murray's the real deal. But with Felix Jones in the mix and Murray's season ending injury last year, the Cowboys would be smart to split up the load and keep both fresh....great for them, bad for Murray's fantasy prospects. That along with the offense going through Romo, I have a bad feeling about taking Murray in an early round this year.230 car, 1050 yards, 6 TD30 rec, 250 yds, 1 TD
Click to expand...
Felix Jones isn't a threat to DeMarco Murray.Murray runs better, is a legit threat to score, and Murray supplanted him as the receiving back. Felix makes too much money and it wouldn't suprise me if he isn't even on the roster. He got his chance and did nothing with it, he's too overpriced to be a back-up and occasional third down back.The Felix luv was out of control after Dallas took him in the first round. People kept a candle in the window for him and they simply cannot accept the fact his days are numbered if not over in Dallas.
Click to expand...
2 games after Murray got hurt before Felix got hurt again Week 14 vs. NYG Rushing: 16 / 106 / 0 Receiving: 6 / 31 / 0 on 7 targets Week 15 vs. TB Rushing: 22 / 108 / 0 Receiving: 3 / 23 / 0 on 4 targetsThats not really showing 'nothing. Its all about who stays healthy. Im not saying Felix wins the lead back role. Thats definitely Murray, but I think if both are healthy at the same time then maybe Felix gets a series ti himself here and there and 3 down work. If nothing else just to keep Murray fresh.
Click to expand...
Felix is a China doll and that is why the year before Murray, when Felix had no competition for the starting gig, Garret only allowed Felix to carry the ball over 16 times once. Felix only scored 1 TD rushing the entire year.In the first game that he got significant carries, Demarco scored the very first time he touched the ball. It took Garret two games before he made Murray the third down back and I think this year he gets goal line carries that Dallas had simply took away from the running game and gave to Romo and the passing game. Felix is inferior in every way to DeMarco Murray. He's not a starting NFL RB. Their was a rumor he was on the trading block prior to the draft and it makes sense that Dallas would want to move-on from Jones. He had his shot as a starter and disappointed. I think even the most ardent Felix Jones pimp would have to concede he isn't a viable starting NFL RB and that he never will be again. It wouldn't suprise me if he's not on the Cowboy roster on opening day.
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where is swtiz anyway? ( speaking of felix jones pimps)
 
'Bracie Smathers said:
Felix is a China doll and that is why the year before Murray, when Felix had no competition for the starting gig, Garret only allowed Felix to carry the ball over 16 times once. Felix only scored 1 TD rushing the entire year.In the first game that he got significant carries, Demarco scored the very first time he touched the ball. It took Garret two games before he made Murray the third down back and I think this year he gets goal line carries that Dallas had simply took away from the running game and gave to Romo and the passing game. Felix is inferior in every way to DeMarco Murray. He's not a starting NFL RB. Their was a rumor he was on the trading block prior to the draft and it makes sense that Dallas would want to move-on from Jones. He had his shot as a starter and disappointed. I think even the most ardent Felix Jones pimp would have to concede he isn't a viable starting NFL RB and that he never will be again. It wouldn't suprise me if he's not on the Cowboy roster on opening day.
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As someone who follows the Cowboys closely, I have a hard time seeing what you're seeing. Not being on the roster? Seriously? Overpaid? He's on his rookie deal. Not an NFL caliber back? Then why are his metrics so good?I get why some folks are frustrated by Felix' inability to stay on the field. I get that some folks think Murray is the end all and be all. But you're espousing things that really aren't well founded or supported other than with bluster.
 
'Bracie Smathers said:
'fightingillini said:
Talent wise, Murray's the real deal. But with Felix Jones in the mix and Murray's season ending injury last year, the Cowboys would be smart to split up the load and keep both fresh....great for them, bad for Murray's fantasy prospects. That along with the offense going through Romo, I have a bad feeling about taking Murray in an early round this year.230 car, 1050 yards, 6 TD30 rec, 250 yds, 1 TD
Click to expand...
Felix Jones isn't a threat to DeMarco Murray.Murray runs better, is a legit threat to score, and Murray supplanted him as the receiving back. Felix makes too much money and it wouldn't suprise me if he isn't even on the roster. He got his chance and did nothing with it, he's too overpriced to be a back-up and occasional third down back.The Felix luv was out of control after Dallas took him in the first round. People kept a candle in the window for him and they simply cannot accept the fact his days are numbered if not over in Dallas.
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I never said that Jones is better than Murray. But to say that Jones can't make a contribution to the Dallas offense is very shortsided IMO. Jones is still a threat to score whenever he touches the ball. Sure I don't think he's a good inside runner, but as long he's there, he's going to get touches. Murray is still the lead dog, but I think Jones cuts into Murray's numbers enough to where I won't touch him in the late 2nd or early 3rd.Could Murray be an elite RB? Yes, only if he gets 20 touches a game for the whole year. I don't see it happening.
 
'Ridgelake said:
'Bracie Smathers said:
Felix is a China doll and that is why the year before Murray, when Felix had no competition for the starting gig, Garret only allowed Felix to carry the ball over 16 times once. Felix only scored 1 TD rushing the entire year.In the first game that he got significant carries, Demarco scored the very first time he touched the ball. It took Garret two games before he made Murray the third down back and I think this year he gets goal line carries that Dallas had simply took away from the running game and gave to Romo and the passing game. Felix is inferior in every way to DeMarco Murray. He's not a starting NFL RB. Their was a rumor he was on the trading block prior to the draft and it makes sense that Dallas would want to move-on from Jones. He had his shot as a starter and disappointed. I think even the most ardent Felix Jones pimp would have to concede he isn't a viable starting NFL RB and that he never will be again. It wouldn't suprise me if he's not on the Cowboy roster on opening day.
Click to expand...
As someone who follows the Cowboys closely, I have a hard time seeing what you're seeing. Not being on the roster? Seriously? Overpaid? He's on his rookie deal. Not an NFL caliber back? Then why are his metrics so good?I get why some folks are frustrated by Felix' inability to stay on the field. I get that some folks think Murray is the end all and be all. But you're espousing things that really aren't well founded or supported other than with bluster.
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Its funny that people think Jones is going to just get 125 to 160+ carries.That is bluster.Its also funny that some are assuming that Murray is going to have a full yard less per carry, um just because.That is bluster.Its also bluster when the main detractor of Murray said last summer that DeMarco Murray would be a wasted roster spot because Felix Jones was the starter and that guy who got cut was the backup.That is bluster.I'll stick by my take and think that Felix is not in the Cowboy's future plans and I wouldn't be suprised if he is not on the opening day roster. My opinion is as valid as the Felix Jones pimp, not you, who constantly takes any and every opportunity to rip on Murray and I'm sick and tired of that tired old bluster about Felix 'China-doll' Jones.
 
'Shutout said:
How many of those occurences are by the same small number of players doing it repeatedly (e.g., Foster the past two years)? Point being: its an achievement that is reserved for the best of the best or at least uncommonly better players of the league and it just seems a little pre-mature to annoint this guy as a top 5 Rb in the league based on a small sample size that ended exactly as was predicted by the people that were skeptical of drafting him warned, playing on a team that passes so much and runs so little at the goal line.
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1700 AP is not a lofty goal if you factor for missed games- This season there were 7 backs that projected out over 1700y over 16 games (and we're not talking about dudes that played 3 games, the names are familiar and obvious). Last season there were 8. Its a passing league, but that also means more receiving yards, which makes a guy like Murray MORE valuable relative to many backs. And you have to factor for missed games, unless you are planning on dropping Arian Foster and Matt Forte way down in your rankings too. Whatever you do, you should do it consistently. Not many leagues award points based on a seasons worth of production, its the production game by game that matters and the season total is just shorthand.
For me, it just strikes me funny that a guy like Murray can play half a dozen games and get this kind of hype and following behind them, yet a guy like foster played a whole season and led the NFL in every major RB category when he came out and was heavily debated the next year. I'm not saying Murray can't be everything that a lot of you guys that are bullish on him say he WILL be. I'm just surprised by how easily it is assumed he will be.
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So your strategy is to wait for a guy to put up top 5 numbers over the season and then draft him in the 3rd round? Sounds legit.
 
'Ridgelake said:
'Bracie Smathers said:
Felix is a China doll and that is why the year before Murray, when Felix had no competition for the starting gig, Garret only allowed Felix to carry the ball over 16 times once. Felix only scored 1 TD rushing the entire year.In the first game that he got significant carries, Demarco scored the very first time he touched the ball. It took Garret two games before he made Murray the third down back and I think this year he gets goal line carries that Dallas had simply took away from therunning game and gave to Romo and the passing game. Felix is inferior in every way to DeMarco Murray. He's not a starting NFL RB. Their was a rumor he was on the trading block prior to the draft and it makes sense that Dallas would want to move-on from Jones. He had his shot as a starter and disappointed. I think even the most ardent Felix Jones pimp would have to concede he isn't a viable starting NFL RB and that he never will be again. It wouldn't suprise me if he's not on the Cowboy roster on opening day.
Click to expand...
As someone who follows the Cowboys closely, I have a hard time seeing what you're seeing. Not being on the roster? Seriously? Overpaid? He's on his rookie deal. Not an NFL caliber back? Then why are his metrics so good?I get why some folks are frustrated by Felix' inability to stay on the field. I get that some folks think Murray is the end all and be all. But you're espousing things that really aren't well founded or supported other than with bluster.
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:goodposting:Felix Jones' salary is $1.17 million this year. There is zero chance he gets cut. No, he isn't ever going to be a workhorse, but come on, people - the guy is over 5 yards/carry for his caree and is a good receiver. He's a fantastic COP / 3rd down back provided they don't wear him down with too many carries. This has RBBC written all over it, and Dallas is a passing team. Murray is the most over-rated player in fantasy football right now.Murray: 200 - 900 - 4 with 30 - 225 - 0 receiving.
 
'Bracie Smathers said:
'Ridgelake said:
'Bracie Smathers said:
Felix is a China doll and that is why the year before Murray, when Felix had no competition for the starting gig, Garret only allowed Felix to carry the ball over 16 times once. Felix only scored 1 TD rushing the entire year.In the first game that he got significant carries, Demarco scored the very first time he touched the ball. It took Garret two games before he made Murray the third down back and I think this year he gets goal line carries that Dallas had simply took away from the running game and gave to Romo and the passing game. Felix is inferior in every way to DeMarco Murray. He's not a starting NFL RB. Their was a rumor he was on the trading block prior to the draft and it makes sense that Dallas would want to move-on from Jones. He had his shot as a starter and disappointed. I think even the most ardent Felix Jones pimp would have to concede he isn't a viable starting NFL RB and that he never will be again. It wouldn't suprise me if he's not on the Cowboy roster on opening day.
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As someone who follows the Cowboys closely, I have a hard time seeing what you're seeing. Not being on the roster? Seriously? Overpaid? He's on his rookie deal. Not an NFL caliber back? Then why are his metrics so good?I get why some folks are frustrated by Felix' inability to stay on the field. I get that some folks think Murray is the end all and be all. But you're espousing things that really aren't well founded or supported other than with bluster.
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Its funny that people think Jones is going to just get 125 to 160+ carries.That is bluster.Its also funny that some are assuming that Murray is going to have a full yard less per carry, um just because.That is bluster.Its also bluster when the main detractor of Murray said last summer that DeMarco Murray would be a wasted roster spot because Felix Jones was the starter and that guy who got cut was the backup.That is bluster.I'll stick by my take and think that Felix is not in the Cowboy's future plans and I wouldn't be suprised if he is not on the opening day roster. My opinion is as valid as the Felix Jones pimp, not you, who constantly takes any and every opportunity to rip on Murray and I'm sick and tired of that tired old bluster about Felix 'China-doll' Jones.
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I'm not busting on Murray. I think he'll be the lead rusher for Dallas this year. I actually drafted both guys in my major money league last year, FWIW. I know you're not referring to me personally in your quoted post. But you should understand that I'm not overly biased to one direction or the other. At least I don't think so.I agree with you that Felix probably isnt in their long term plans. I doubt they resign him after next season. I personally think that would be a waste as the guy has talent. His issue has obviously been remaining healthy. But the same exact thing, if not moreso, can be said about Murray. Felix wasnt hurt in college. Murray was. Felix has averaged 14 games per season the last 3 years with the lowest game total of 12. Murray? Who knows.As for Murray averaging a full yard per carry less. You might try to calculate the impact of removing his 91 yard jaunt. Now backs break runs every now and then. And both Murray and Felix are the type of guys who break them. But statistical regression to the mean strongly suggests his YPC will come down. As for Felix getting 160 carries, well, he had 185 in 2010. And as an aside, his career YPC average is 5.1. There's a whole lot of NFL starting RBs that are far short of that.Garrett has shown that he'll play multiple backs if he's got them. Its been seen with MB3/Julius Jones. Felix/MB3/Choice. And Murray/Felix. There is absolutely no reason to beleive he won't split between those 2 this upcoming season, until one gets hurt. Which, given their respective injury histories, seems more likely than not.Bracie, if you'd like to engage in an open and reasonable debate, lets do so. But to summarily make statements like Felix Jones is not "a starting NFL RB" or "He's inferior in every way to DeMarco Murray" and then have no real basis behind those statements really doesnt add value to the discussion.Lets make this discussion more useful for folks, ok? I know you're capable of it. Not just blather.
 
'Ridgelake said:
Garrett has shown that he'll play multiple backs if he's got them. Its been seen with MB3/Julius Jones. Felix/MB3/Choice. And Murray/Felix. There is absolutely no reason to beleive he won't split between those 2 this upcoming season, until one gets hurt. Which, given their respective injury histories, seems more likely than not.
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Every team splits carries. The question is what does the split look like. With both back healthy:Week 11 Murray 25 carries 7 targets, Jones 5 carries 1 targetWeek 12 Murray 22 carries, 4 targets, Jones 0 carries 1 targetWeek 13 Murray 12 carries, 0 targets, Jones 6 carries 2 targetsThat makes 59 carries and 11 targets to 11 carries and 4 targets. If the Cowboys run the ball only 375 times again, that ratio give us 319 carries for Demarco and 56 carries for Jones assuming they split all the carries (which they wouldn't, but its the ratio that is instructive).Ok lets look at ALL the games Murray and Felix played together excluding the 2 injury games: That comes out to 115 carries for the lead ball carrier, and 47 carries for the other guy, a ratio of 71-29 over 7 games. Lets look at the entire season and compare the lead rusher to the game total of all the other RBs on the team, game by game (again excluding the 2 injury games) 236/92, 72% for the lead back, 18% for the others. Its great to make the assumption that Garrett is going to split carries anything like 50/50 or even 60/40, but when he had the opportunity to decide last year the ratio was 72/18 even including the struggles to run the ball at the start of the season. Facts are stubborn things. Dallas running back season totals tell a deceptive story due to the back and forth of injuries... but it would appear Garrett prefers to go with the hot hand with occasional spelling by the backup (ie- what most NFL teams do). Bottom line is if you assumed both backs were healthy you can make a statistical argument that Garrett will give Murray 270 carries to 105 between the other backs combined. Its the argument that Garrett is suddenly going to coach differently than he has to date suggests that requires untested assumptions.
 
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'mbuehner said:
'Ridgelake said:
Garrett has shown that he'll play multiple backs if he's got them. Its been seen with MB3/Julius Jones. Felix/MB3/Choice. And Murray/Felix. There is absolutely no reason to beleive he won't split between those 2 this upcoming season, until one gets hurt. Which, given their respective injury histories, seems more likely than not.
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Every team splits carries. The question is what does the split look like. With both back healthy:Week 11 Murray 25 carries 7 targets, Jones 5 carries 1 targetWeek 12 Murray 22 carries, 4 targets, Jones 0 carries 1 targetWeek 13 Murray 12 carries, 0 targets, Jones 6 carries 2 targetsThat makes 59 carries and 11 targets to 11 carries and 4 targets. If the Cowboys run the ball only 375 times again, that ratio give us 319 carries for Demarco and 56 carries for Jones assuming they split all the carries (which they wouldn't, but its the ratio that is instructive).Ok lets look at ALL the games Murray and Felix played together excluding the 2 injury games: That comes out to 115 carries for the lead ball carrier, and 47 carries for the other guy, a ratio of 71-29 over 7 games. Lets look at the entire season and compare the lead rusher to the game total of all the other RBs on the team, game by game (again excluding the 2 injury games) 236/92, 72% for the lead back, 18% for the others. Its great to make the assumption that Garrett is going to split carries anything like 50/50 or even 60/40, but when he had the opportunity to decide last year the ratio was 72/18 even including the struggles to run the ball at the start of the season. Facts are stubborn things. Dallas running back season totals tell a deceptive story due to the back and forth of injuries... but it would appear Garrett prefers to go with the hot hand with occasional spelling by the backup (ie- what most NFL teams do). Bottom line is if you assumed both backs were healthy you can make a statistical argument that Garrett will give Murray 270 carries to 105 between the other backs combined. Its the argument that Garrett is suddenly going to coach differently than he has to date suggests that requires untested assumptions.
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Good post.
 
I think too many here are underrating his receiving ability. Most here are predicting around 30 receptions and for me that would be his absolute worst case injury/regression floor scenario. Last season alone he had 26 receptions on 35 targets. That's very impressive for what's considered one of the toughest areas for a rookie RB. It's tough to get into a comparison game with other elite RBs in their rookie season that have his kind of receiving ability because of the unique situations, but he continues his current pace he's well on his way to being an elite PPR RB. Assuming he remains healthy(big assumption in this case but I don't project players based on injury) I think at the very least he ends up doubling his reception total. With the cowboys line problems I think they use the passing game to get him in space.

 
He has the ability to be the #1 fantasy RB, but given the way he runs I just don't see him lasting on the field in a feature role. He's violent, upright, and not elusive. I can keep him cheap in a couple of leagues because he was a free agent pick up, and I will, but in a dyno I'm shopping him and in a redraft I think I'll go in another direction - depends on the cost though. If I trusted his handcuff I'd be more inclined to buy, but if he were to go down I think the 3rd stringer Tanner is more likely to rise into a starting role than his backup.

 
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