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Cam Newton (1 Viewer)

E

Eminence

Footballguy
There doesn't seem to be much debate about Newton, everyone is touting him as the next stud QB. What he did during the lockout was impressive but who's to say he didn't take advantage of defenses that were adjusting to the lockout as well?

First 8 games:

2,393 Yards / 11 TD / 9 INT

319 Yards Rushing / 7 TD

Bye

Last 8 Games:

1,658 Yards / 10 TD / 8 INT

387 Yards Rushing / 7 TD

He threw for 700 less yards down the stretch than he did in just 1st 8 starts. With that said, his passing stats if he continues like his second half stats suggest would be:

3,300 Yards / 20 TD / 16INT

You can argue that his TD will rise or his INT will go down but in my personal opinion a QB who relies on RZ TDs is not a player I am willing to burn an early pick on, especially in Dynasty.

14 Rushing TD? That's an incredible number even for a Running Back. I'm not so sure Newton is going to have as spectacular a year as last.

Even with just the regression in passing yards (700 less), that's 28 Fantasy Points there. If he has only 4 less Rushing Touchdowns, that's 32 points there.

70 less points over 16 games is 4 less points per game from your Quarterback, potentially more if his TD total drops more.

Let's say he goes for:

3,300 / 21TD / 17INT

700 / 10TD

That's 354 Fantasy Points and a realistic expectation. Now Matt Ryan last year went for:

4,100 / 29TD / 12INT

359 / 4TD

That's 381 Fantastic Points for Matt Ryan. Scale him down for regression and he's in the same tier (IMO) as Newton. Only with a very good chance to improve / sustain his numbers as opposed to regress like Newton.

 
'Eminence said:
There doesn't seem to be much debate about Newton, everyone is touting him as the next stud QB. What he did during the lockout was impressive but who's to say he didn't take advantage of defenses that were adjusting to the lockout as well?First 8 games:2,393 Yards / 11 TD / 9 INT319 Yards Rushing / 7 TDByeLast 8 Games:1,658 Yards / 10 TD / 8 INT387 Yards Rushing / 7 TDHe threw for 700 less yards down the stretch than he did in just 1st 8 starts. With that said, his passing stats if he continues like his second half stats suggest would be:3,300 Yards / 20 TD / 16INTYou can argue that his TD will rise or his INT will go down but in my personal opinion a QB who relies on RZ TDs is not a player I am willing to burn an early pick on, especially in Dynasty.14 Rushing TD? That's an incredible number even for a Running Back. I'm not so sure Newton is going to have as spectacular a year as last.Even with just the regression in passing yards (700 less), that's 28 Fantasy Points there. If he has only 4 less Rushing Touchdowns, that's 32 points there.70 less points over 16 games is 4 less points per game from your Quarterback, potentially more if his TD total drops more.Let's say he goes for:3,300 / 21TD / 17INT700 / 10TDThat's 354 Fantasy Points and a realistic expectation. Now Matt Ryan last year went for:4,100 / 29TD / 12INT359 / 4TDThat's 381 Fantastic Points for Matt Ryan. Scale him down for regression and he's in the same tier (IMO) as Newton. Only with a very good chance to improve / sustain his numbers as opposed to regress like Newton.
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Sorry but this twisted logic is utter crap. Defenses took 8 games to figure Newton out? He isn't a schematic challenge, he a physical challenge. You can't scheme around him as SEC defenses found out his senior year at Auburn. Why are you predicting a regression from last year? Because he's getting to have training camp this year with a chance to improve chemistry with his wr?For some reason people don't like Newton and want him to fail. That's fair enough but don't attempt to dig up loose statistical anomalies to justify his failures. Accept him as a rare generational talent and draft him according to his value as a top 5 if not number 1 QB in the NFL.
 
A rookie QB putting up big numbers is very impressive, a rookie QB with limited offensive weapons putting up big numbers is more impressive, a rookie QB without camp and getting thrown right into the fire putting up big numbers is almost unfathomable...I appreciate the effort on the numbers and he could regress (especially with rushing TDs because they are always dicey) but until I actually see this kid regress I'm keeping him in the upper-echelon of fantasy studs...

 
There is no questioning his physical abilities, but I still don't trust his head. I was absolutely wrong for not targeting him at value last year but I think his price may have over corrected. I'm expecting him to go before I'm comfortable taking the gamble in redrafts.

 
I agree, in re draft I wouldn't touch him until after Brees, Brady, Stafford, and Rogers are off the board. But as a dynasty player, I think mid 1st round is a steal for a 23 year old with the floor of Cam.

 
I loe the impression that a rookie QB with no offseason and training camp has nowhere to go but down and a QB that has been in the league for years and had similar stats every year stands a chance to improve.

 
So much is situational. At the end of the season Carolina got up a lot in the games early (due to Cam) so there was no point in passing much in the 2nd half.

Week 13 (204 passing yards) vs TB - won 38-19 and Cam had 4 total TD's.

Week 15 (149 passing yards) vs Texans - won 38-13 (Carolina was up 21-0 at half on 2 Cam TD's)

Week 16 (171 passing yards) vs TB - won 48-16 and Cam had 4 total TD's

in the games late in the season where he didn't pass much it was mainly because Carolina got up a ton early on huge TD games by Cam. If he can get you 3-4 Td's in a game and get his team up early i'll take it all day in FF, despite it causing lower passing yard numbers.

 
'MAC_32 said:
There is no questioning his physical abilities, but I still don't trust his head. I was absolutely wrong for not targeting him at value last year but I think his price may have over corrected. I'm expecting him to go before I'm comfortable taking the gamble in redrafts.
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wha???????

If anything the dude showed an amazing degree of intelligence and ability to pick up the pro game immediately especially considering no off season to speak of.

 
I actually think the original post raises a good point: Does Cam Newton's (very successful) style of play suffer a larger-than-average drop off as defenses become better able to plan for him?

It's pretty clear his numbers dropped off as the season progressed. But the question is WHY? I see a few options:

(1) His numbers dropped off because all QB numbers drop off as the season progresses. I read some article once that charted points/stats by offenses over the course of the season, and the point it made was that for the first several games of every season, offenses typically score more points/stats than in the latter half of the season. The article's theory was that defenses get more film as the season progresses, and can better plan to shut down offenses. To check this possibility, compare Newton's drop off in 2011 against how the average QB stats dropped off.

(2) His numbers dropped off because the defenses he faced in the second half were tougher. This is an obvious possibility, and should be easy to check by comparing the relative strength of the passing defenses. This seems tailor-made for the Football Outsiders metrics on quality defense, or whatever they're called.

(3) His numbers dropped off because defenses really did start to figure him out, and game plan to stop him. We've seen other running QBs who seemed stronger at the beginning, but then regressed some as defensive coordinators mapped their skillsets, and identified the weaknesses. Vince Young and Michael Vick are two easy examples that come to mind. Maybe Newton will face the same issue.

I'm of course not saying Newton is going to bomb in 2012. He's a strong player, and he surely will be a top-10 QB. But I definitely would be nervous about some regression.

Interesting topic.

 
I wouldn't read much into it to be honest. Kid has never even had an offseason. And was playing on a team most thought was probably the worst in the NFL opening weekend. One of the worst anyway.

 
'pantherclub said:
'MAC_32 said:
There is no questioning his physical abilities, but I still don't trust his head. I was absolutely wrong for not targeting him at value last year but I think his price may have over corrected. I'm expecting him to go before I'm comfortable taking the gamble in redrafts.
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wha???????

If anything the dude showed an amazing degree of intelligence and ability to pick up the pro game immediately especially considering no off season to speak of.
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Not that part of his head, he's a smart guy but the part of him that got thrown out of one school and solicited bribes from another still lingers. I don't trust leaders that do stuff like that.
 
'The Gunslinger said:
Sorry but this twisted logic is utter crap. Defenses took 8 games to figure Newton out? He isn't a schematic challenge, he a physical challenge. You can't scheme around him as SEC defenses found out his senior year at Auburn. Why are you predicting a regression from last year? Because he's getting to have training camp this year with a chance to improve chemistry with his wr?For some reason people don't like Newton and want him to fail. That's fair enough but don't attempt to dig up loose statistical anomalies to justify his failures. Accept him as a rare generational talent and draft him according to his value as a top 5 if not number 1 QB in the NFL.
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This post seems a little over the top.The objective numbers show Newton did in fact regress in terms of passing yardage by 30% last year over a statistically significant time period (half his career). And speaking of twisted logic, if it's logical that his chemistry with WRs would get better once he had training camp, then why didn't it improve in his last 8 games after he had the first 8 games to develop chemistry?Personally, I've got him for 4,500 total yds and 30 total TD's next year, good enough for QB5-8 in redraft along with Ryan and the Manning twins. Higher in dynasty. IMO the OP may be relying too much on second half numbers and not putting enough weight on Cam's potential demonstrated in the first half. But pointing out objective facts and having him in the same tier as a proven commodity like Matt Ryan (who has three stud receiver targets) is not "utter crap" and the topic itself is definitely worth debating.
 
I think that an argument could be made that his perceived value is as high as it may ever get. In keeper leagues, turning this perceived value into multiple high draft picks could be the shark move. People are projecting him as a top 5-8 QB which would put him in the Eli/Ryan camp...ask any owner if they would trade Cam for Ryan and probably you'll get a no. Reverse it and you'll probably get a hell yeah. Point is, trading the perception for more picks and drafting the same output a little later is how to capitalize on Cam.

I mean talk about a sick ROI. I drafted him in the 17th round last year and could potentially get a 1 and a 3 this year.

 
It's just odd that the passing regression coincided with the team winning games. Bottom line is that I'd he has demonstrated anything it is that he does what it takes to win games. His senior year at Auburn, he was deemed a running QB and destroyed teams with his legs. Then defenses sold out to stop that and he averaged 300 yards per game passing from the Ole Miss game on. The same thing happened last year to a point. Defenses took his passing ability for granted and he made them pay with his arm. When teams started respecting the pass, it opened up the running game. (graph team rushing yards and you'll see a gradual up tick).

Ding him if you want but he produces fantasy points in so many ways that his floor week to week is very high.

As to the comments about character his freshman year, Roethliberger is a rapist and won a superbowl, OJ Simpson and Ray Lewis killed people and had pretty good careers. I think purchasing a stolen laptop when you are 18 years old falls well short of "character concerns"......

 
'MAC_32 said:
'pantherclub said:
'MAC_32 said:
There is no questioning his physical abilities, but I still don't trust his head. I was absolutely wrong for not targeting him at value last year but I think his price may have over corrected. I'm expecting him to go before I'm comfortable taking the gamble in redrafts.
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wha???????

If anything the dude showed an amazing degree of intelligence and ability to pick up the pro game immediately especially considering no off season to speak of.
Click to expand...
Not that part of his head, he's a smart guy but the part of him that got thrown out of one school and solicited bribes from another still lingers. I don't trust leaders that do stuff like that.
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I thought that last year too, I don't worry about that anymore.
 
Rookie with no offseason hits rookie wall. My take:

He did incredibly well to start the season, breaking all kinds of rookie records.

Defenses, as they got more game film on him, likely did start keying in on him better.

Cam's physical ability to score in the red zone was not diminished by this shift, only passing stats

We can conclude that if defenses were more successful in stopping him, it was only in one facet of his game

His INTs and sacks did not match his decrease in passing yards. If it really was defenses "figuring him out" one would think these stats would rise as passing yards lowered

His decrease in passing yards coincides with Smith's decrease in receiving yards. Teams figured out that by taking Smith out of the game with double teams, they were taking away Cam's security blanket

Bottom line is there is nothing that would lead one to think that Cam will not improve next season. Aside from everything mentioned all reports point to a young man who takes his career very seriously and is doing everything he can to improve on his rookie year.

I see no reason at all to think Cam won't improve on his 2011 campaign.

 
'Lab said:
It's pretty clear his numbers dropped off as the season progressed. But the question is WHY? I see a few options:
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The main reason IMO is game situation.Had 6 losses in his first 8 games. CAR defense allowed 28+ points in 5 of those lossesHad 4 losses in his 2nd 8 games. 2 of those losses CAR held leads into the 2nd half. 3 of the 4 2nd half wins weren't that close with wins by 19, 15 and 22. Cam had almost 60 more pass attempts in the 2nd half because of game situation.
 
'The Gunslinger said:
It's just odd that the passing regression coincided with the team winning games. Bottom line is that I'd he has demonstrated anything it is that he does what it takes to win games. His senior year at Auburn, he was deemed a running QB and destroyed teams with his legs. Then defenses sold out to stop that and he averaged 300 yards per game passing from the Ole Miss game on. The same thing happened last year to a point. Defenses took his passing ability for granted and he made them pay with his arm. When teams started respecting the pass, it opened up the running game. (graph team rushing yards and you'll see a gradual up tick).

Ding him if you want but he produces fantasy points in so many ways that his floor week to week is very high.
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Yea, I think a lot of the disparity of his first and second half can be attributed to team need. They won half of their last 8 games. All of his sub 200 yd days came in wins, except for week 17 vs NO.
 
This is ludicrous. Cam is the best football player of all-time and I refuse to believe otherwise.

 
I'd be much more concerned if his TD/INT ration changed much after the split, or his rushing numbers changed too much. His passing yardage was obviously very dependent on game situation last year. Not shocking.

 
2/3 of the drop in passing yards was from fewer attempts, 1/3 from lower yards per attempt (with most of that from lower yards per completion).

First 8 games: 287 att, 8.34 ypa (60.6% comp, 13.8 y/c)

Last 8 games: 230 att, 7.21 ypa (59.1% comp, 12.2 y/c)

 
'unckeyherb said:
I think that an argument could be made that his perceived value is as high as it may ever get. In keeper leagues, turning this perceived value into multiple high draft picks could be the shark move. People are projecting him as a top 5-8 QB which would put him in the Eli/Ryan camp...ask any owner if they would trade Cam for Ryan and probably you'll get a no. Reverse it and you'll probably get a hell yeah. Point is, trading the perception for more picks and drafting the same output a little later is how to capitalize on Cam. I mean talk about a sick ROI. I drafted him in the 17th round last year and could potentially get a 1 and a 3 this year.
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You're just one of these guys who hates Newton. I don't know what it is. You drafted Jamarcus Russel first in every league? You guys just won't see reason. Matt Ryan played with an infinitely better set of skill players (Julio, Roddy, Gonzalez), he was in his 4th year and put up much worse fantasy numbers. Newton almost blew him away by a 100 points. Why would you ever think that Ryan will be the better long-term investment? Newton is not Vick either. Vick never passed for anything his first 5 years in the league. Probably 90% of the games he never hit 200 yards. I just find it amazing how some people who won't admit they were wrong.
 
'bonesman said:
'The Gunslinger said:
It's just odd that the passing regression coincided with the team winning games. Bottom line is that I'd he has demonstrated anything it is that he does what it takes to win games. His senior year at Auburn, he was deemed a running QB and destroyed teams with his legs. Then defenses sold out to stop that and he averaged 300 yards per game passing from the Ole Miss game on. The same thing happened last year to a point. Defenses took his passing ability for granted and he made them pay with his arm. When teams started respecting the pass, it opened up the running game. (graph team rushing yards and you'll see a gradual up tick).

Ding him if you want but he produces fantasy points in so many ways that his floor week to week is very high.
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Yea, I think a lot of the disparity of his first and second half can be attributed to team need. They won half of their last 8 games. All of his sub 200 yd days came in wins, except for week 17 vs NO.
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Well, yeah, sure. Which means the flip side....is that Newton's stats could decline in 2012 if the Panthers are a better overall team than they were in 1st half 2011. Which isn't exactly outside the realm of possibility.
 
'Alex P Keaton said:
'bonesman said:
'The Gunslinger said:
It's just odd that the passing regression coincided with the team winning games. Bottom line is that I'd he has demonstrated anything it is that he does what it takes to win games. His senior year at Auburn, he was deemed a running QB and destroyed teams with his legs. Then defenses sold out to stop that and he averaged 300 yards per game passing from the Ole Miss game on. The same thing happened last year to a point. Defenses took his passing ability for granted and he made them pay with his arm. When teams started respecting the pass, it opened up the running game. (graph team rushing yards and you'll see a gradual up tick).

Ding him if you want but he produces fantasy points in so many ways that his floor week to week is very high.
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Yea, I think a lot of the disparity of his first and second half can be attributed to team need. They won half of their last 8 games. All of his sub 200 yd days came in wins, except for week 17 vs NO.
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Well, yeah, sure. Which means the flip side....is that Newton's stats could decline in 2012 if the Panthers are a better overall team than they were in 1st half 2011. Which isn't exactly outside the realm of possibility.
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...and the flip side to that is while his passing stats might suffer a bit if they are winning it will be due to him getting loads of td's scored.In a couple of those late season games where Carolina got up early it was because Cam dropped 4 total td's on the other team.

150 passing/50 rushing/4 td's game lines, I'll take it.

 
Fantasy stats aside, I watched every Panthers game last year, and the Panthers did lose a handful of games directly because of Cam. But hey, those are the growing pains a rookie with no training camp has to endure. I'm betting the Panthers make the playoffs this year though, as I suspect Cam will start the understand the importance of turn-over free football. Especially in the 4th quarter. He's a straight baller when it comes down to it. A force to be reckoned with. The majority project a decrease in rushing TDs this year, but I'm one of the few that predict equal or greater rushing statistics in 2012.

 
'MrSoup said:
Fantasy stats aside, I watched every Panthers game last year, and the Panthers did lose a handful of games directly because of Cam. But hey, those are the growing pains a rookie with no training camp has to endure. I'm betting the Panthers make the playoffs this year though, as I suspect Cam will start the understand the importance of turn-over free football. Especially in the 4th quarter. He's a straight baller when it comes down to it. A force to be reckoned with. The majority project a decrease in rushing TDs this year, but I'm one of the few that predict equal or greater rushing statistics in 2012.
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I would agree that Cam lost the Panthers a couple of games, but they also won six because of him. As a Panthers homer, I hated the pick when it happened and had a lot of the same concerns that have been brought up in this thread about his head, his maturity, etc. Within his first few weeks with the team however, my opinion on him changed as he showed a level of leadership through the way he handled himself in practice (I tend to go to a number of training camp sessions), in the media, and through his on-field leadership. In fact, the only thing I worry about with Cam is that he is TOO hard on himself, as when the Panthers lose, he gets really frustrated and upset with himself. The thing about that however, is that it reminds me a lot of a number of great players like Michael Jordan, Peyton Manning, etc. who refuse to accept a lose. What I've noticed is that every time he fails, he makes an effort to work harder to get better, and I love that about him.The regression in his numbers in the second half of the season are a bit concerning from a fantasy standpoint, I suppose, but it's worth noting that the level of competition was worse during the last portion of the year (especially toward the very end)...which happened to coincide with the team getting really comfortable with each other. There wasn't a need to pass a ton when they were going up 28-0 in the first half of a game.
 
'voiceofunreason said:
'unckeyherb said:
I think that an argument could be made that his perceived value is as high as it may ever get. In keeper leagues, turning this perceived value into multiple high draft picks could be the shark move. People are projecting him as a top 5-8 QB which would put him in the Eli/Ryan camp...ask any owner if they would trade Cam for Ryan and probably you'll get a no. Reverse it and you'll probably get a hell yeah. Point is, trading the perception for more picks and drafting the same output a little later is how to capitalize on Cam. I mean talk about a sick ROI. I drafted him in the 17th round last year and could potentially get a 1 and a 3 this year.
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You're just one of these guys who hates Newton. I don't know what it is. You drafted Jamarcus Russel first in every league? You guys just won't see reason. Matt Ryan played with an infinitely better set of skill players (Julio, Roddy, Gonzalez), he was in his 4th year and put up much worse fantasy numbers. Newton almost blew him away by a 100 points. Why would you ever think that Ryan will be the better long-term investment? Newton is not Vick either. Vick never passed for anything his first 5 years in the league. Probably 90% of the games he never hit 200 yards. I just find it amazing how some people who won't admit they were wrong.
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Back up Timmy, I don't see where I was wrong and I certainly don't hate Newton. I drafted Cam, got laughed at by my league mates for a wasted pick then went on to win the league in no small part because of that pick; so save the incredulity for someone else. I don't remember comparing Newton to Vick. Ever. Also, my point with Ryan/Eli is that they are comparable point scorers that are valued much lower than Cam Newton. If you could have your choice of: 1. Cam Newton or 2. Ryan/Eli and two extra picks in the first 3 rounds, which of these options seems like it would be the better situation for your team? I should add that in my league we have a cap of 2 years on keepers, so its not like I can stash Cam away for the next decade. Trading players at their highest perceived value is how you win championships pal. Is it a risk? Sure-he could be the top scoring QB next year. I didn't say it was a foolproof plan, just that it is a way to a big ROI, as most either drafted him very late or grabbed him off the WW. Hope this helps to better understand my point. :bye:
 
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I guess he could get worse if the team wins a lot of games. But if they aren't very good, or at least if the D isn't, they'll put the team on his shoulders and let him go, gaining owners a ton of points. Personally, I see the guy getting more yards this year as he works at being a pure passer with a QB coach all offseason. And this from a guy that just traded him away...

 
Yeah, I'll take him still. Regression or not.

Last year was the rookie season for the kid that played one year of starting ball in college, running a rinky dink offense that wasn't a pro offense, joining the worst team in pro football, a team we were told was the favorite to repeat as worst team, had no football intelligence and would need at least two years to mature. No minicamps, abbreviated training camp, then threw for 400 yards first two weeks of the season, including the Super Bowl champs.

The question should really be: How much can this freak improve?

 
I didn't like Cam coming out of college. I felt like he could become Russell 2.0 after he got paid. I was proven wrong. This guy is a strait up baller.

The question I have is how much does Steve Smith have left in the tank? He had a great year last year and he made some big plays to boost Cams numbers.

 
'massraider said:
Yeah, I'll take him still. Regression or not. Last year was the rookie season for the kid that played one year of starting ball in college, running a rinky dink offense that wasn't a pro offense, joining the worst team in pro football, a team we were told was the favorite to repeat as worst team, had no football intelligence and would need at least two years to mature. No minicamps, abbreviated training camp, then threw for 400 yards first two weeks of the season, including the Super Bowl champs.The question should really be: How much can this freak improve?
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Holy hyperbole.
 
'Eminence said:
'massraider said:
Yeah, I'll take him still. Regression or not. Last year was the rookie season for the kid that played one year of starting ball in college, running a rinky dink offense that wasn't a pro offense, joining the worst team in pro football, a team we were told was the favorite to repeat as worst team, had no football intelligence and would need at least two years to mature. No minicamps, abbreviated training camp, then threw for 400 yards first two weeks of the season, including the Super Bowl champs.The question should really be: How much can this freak improve?
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Holy hyperbole.
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Not really.
 
'Eminence said:
'massraider said:
Yeah, I'll take him still. Regression or not. Last year was the rookie season for the kid that played one year of starting ball in college, running a rinky dink offense that wasn't a pro offense, joining the worst team in pro football, a team we were told was the favorite to repeat as worst team, had no football intelligence and would need at least two years to mature. No minicamps, abbreviated training camp, then threw for 400 yards first two weeks of the season, including the Super Bowl champs.The question should really be: How much can this freak improve?
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Holy hyperbole.
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You think? Anything I said there not true?Newton has to have been the least popular #1 overall pick in recent memory. There were a lot more people that thought JaMarcus would be a stud than Newton. I am not sure any draftnik went out of their way to praise him. Panther fans were the MOST miserable. Look at it this way, if Andrew Luck has a rookie season like Newton's, will we have threads next spring with people trying to predict a downward trend? Somehow, I don't think so. This isn't the first thread like this, either. This conversation has been had before. I am not sure where the doubt comes from. With all the things working against Cam, for him to have the season he had was simply extraordinary. Really, the talk should be: Sky is the limit. Is he the #1 overall dynasty pick? My guess is that it is just people that hate being wrong. Add in the fact that he was pretty unlikable coming out if Auburn, and people are fishing for negatives. It seems pretty clear that he is a leader, not remotely shook by the pro game, and elevates the play of those around him. He won a national title in juco, won the national title at Auburn, then had one of the best rookie years a QB could ever think of having. The arrow is pointed UP on his career fellas.
 
He feasted off an Arizona Defense that didn't even know the whole playbook (due to the lockout) Week 1 for 400 Yards. A defense that improved drastically down the stretch.

He then 'went off' for 400 yards the next game against the 32nd Ranked Green Bay Packers. A game he threw three interceptions.

He had 20% of his entire seasons Passing Yards in those two games. I don't expect Newton to crack 400 yards in a game once next year and he's being drafted as a guy who WILL have those games rather than a guy who COULD.

If Andrew Luck had a year like Newton, I would be putting it under the microscope just the same. Why did his passing go down? Is this a replicable season or a season of circumstance?

I'm not discrediting this guys' ceiling. I'm just suggesting his floor may be lower than people think.

 
'Eminence said:
He feasted off an Arizona Defense that didn't even know the whole playbook (due to the lockout) Week 1 for 400 Yards. A defense that improved drastically down the stretch.He then 'went off' for 400 yards the next game against the 32nd Ranked Green Bay Packers. A game he threw three interceptions.If Andrew Luck had a year like Newton, I would be putting it under the microscope just the same. Why did his passing go down? Is this a replicable season or a season of circumstance?
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First, discrediting the first two games is embarrassing. The Cards didn't have the entire playbook, because of the lockout? Unlike whom? Did the Panthers have their full playbook, having been able to work with Newton for an entire month? The Cards have a bunch of vets on that defense and were facing the worst team in the league, with a rookie QB. A sorry, sorry excuse. After setting one record in week 1, Newton sets another the next week, having the biggest passing games in the first two weeks in NFL history. As a rookie. Versus the Champs. Champs had a bad passing defense? So what? Does Cam only get to face top 10,defenses next season?
 
'massraider said:
'Eminence said:
He feasted off an Arizona Defense that didn't even know the whole playbook (due to the lockout) Week 1 for 400 Yards. A defense that improved drastically down the stretch.He then 'went off' for 400 yards the next game against the 32nd Ranked Green Bay Packers. A game he threw three interceptions.If Andrew Luck had a year like Newton, I would be putting it under the microscope just the same. Why did his passing go down? Is this a replicable season or a season of circumstance?
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First, discrediting the first two games is embarrassing. The Cards didn't have the entire playbook, because of the lockout? Unlike whom? Did the Panthers have their full playbook, having been able to work with Newton for an entire month? The Cards have a bunch of vets on that defense and were facing the worst team in the league, with a rookie QB. A sorry, sorry excuse. After setting one record in week 1, Newton sets another the next week, having the biggest passing games in the first two weeks in NFL history. As a rookie. Versus the Champs. Champs had a bad passing defense? So what? Does Cam only get to face top 10,defenses next season?
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I didn't discredit the first two games, I promptly stopped reading the rest of your post.
 
'Eminence said:
'massraider said:
'Eminence said:
He feasted off an Arizona Defense that didn't even know the whole playbook (due to the lockout) Week 1 for 400 Yards. A defense that improved drastically down the stretch.He then 'went off' for 400 yards the next game against the 32nd Ranked Green Bay Packers. A game he threw three interceptions.If Andrew Luck had a year like Newton, I would be putting it under the microscope just the same. Why did his passing go down? Is this a replicable season or a season of circumstance?
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First, discrediting the first two games is embarrassing. The Cards didn't have the entire playbook, because of the lockout? Unlike whom? Did the Panthers have their full playbook, having been able to work with Newton for an entire month? The Cards have a bunch of vets on that defense and were facing the worst team in the league, with a rookie QB. A sorry, sorry excuse. After setting one record in week 1, Newton sets another the next week, having the biggest passing games in the first two weeks in NFL history. As a rookie. Versus the Champs. Champs had a bad passing defense? So what? Does Cam only get to face top 10,defenses next season?
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I didn't discredit the first two games, I promptly stopped reading the rest of your post.
Click to expand...
Your arguments are getting better and better. This is even stronger than "holy hyperbole". I best get goin while the gettin' is good.And yeah, you did. You read my whole post.
 
The big factor with Newton though, that guys like Andrew Luck won't replicate, is the running ability and overall rushing totals. Running for 700+ yards and 14 TDs tremendously pads his fantasy totals in comparison to a guy like Matt Ryan who is more of a pocket QB with some scrambling ability.

What concerns me is that in 3 of the team's first 4 games he threw for 422, 432, and 374 yards. He had 37, 46, and 46 attempts to get those numbers. Other games in which he threw for 280, 290, and 276 yards also resulted in losses. Every game where Cam was asked to throw a lot, resulted in a loss.

Could he be a stud and repeat the numbers? Maybe but I have a hard time believing that he'd throw for 300+ week in and week out like more of the pocket stud QBs do ala Brady, Brees, and Manning. I also have a hard time believing that Ron Rivera will let Cam throw the ball 35+ times a game if it leads to losing them.

If his rushing ability drops off to even just 500 yards rushing and 8 TDs, does he have the scheme and coach to allow him to throw it 570-580 times and get back some of that fantasy production through the air? Maybe in a couple years but I don't see it this year at least.

 
'Eminence said:
If Andrew Luck had a year like Newton, I would be putting it under the microscope just the same. Why did his passing go down? Is this a replicable season or a season of circumstance?
Click to expand...
Use your eyes, man. He only threw 21 TDs last year; do you really think he could throw fewer than that? He might not throw for 4000 yards but it's hard to imagine less than 3500. He won't rush for 14 TDs but I'm willing to be he's #1 or #2 in the league in terms of QB rushing yardage and TDs; would you bet against that? Here's the list of rookie QBs who threw for 20 TDs since the merger, before 2011:

Peyton Manning

Jim Kelly

Dan Marino

That's it. As a passer alone his season ranks with three Hall of Famers. And he's a massively better runner than any of them.

The second half of Dan Marino's rookie season was much worse than the first half (passer rating dropped from 108 to 87). It would have been a bit foolish to write him off for 1984, don't you think?

 
A step in the right direction

Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton said he was a bad teammate during his rookie season. 'I was very immature,' Newton said after losses. 'I'll be the first one to tell you, the pouting and the moping, I kind of overdid it. I know that. I was a bad teammate. I shut off to some people who gave unbelievable effort ... That's where I have to mature.' His teammates, however, feel Newton just has to trust them more. 'Cam was angry because he thought he could and should make every play,' WR Steve Smith said. 'He has to realize you can't do it all yourself. It's like when someone drops a touchdown pass at the end of a close game. You can say that play cost the team a chance to win the game, but it didn't cause the team to lose.'
Click to expand...
Talk is cheap though, he needs to actually do it and not just say it. His maturity issues are why I'm holding back from him, him coming out and saying this does give me some reason for optimism but...there's no adversity in the off season. How will he handle adversity in season?
 
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'CalBear said:
'Eminence said:
If Andrew Luck had a year like Newton, I would be putting it under the microscope just the same. Why did his passing go down? Is this a replicable season or a season of circumstance?
Click to expand...
Use your eyes, man. He only threw 21 TDs last year; do you really think he could throw fewer than that? He might not throw for 4000 yards but it's hard to imagine less than 3500. He won't rush for 14 TDs but I'm willing to be he's #1 or #2 in the league in terms of QB rushing yardage and TDs; would you bet against that? Here's the list of rookie QBs who threw for 20 TDs since the merger, before 2011:

Peyton Manning

Jim Kelly

Dan Marino

That's it. As a passer alone his season ranks with three Hall of Famers. And he's a massively better runner than any of them.

The second half of Dan Marino's rookie season was much worse than the first half (passer rating dropped from 108 to 87). It would have been a bit foolish to write him off for 1984, don't you think?
Click to expand...
Before last year only 2 QBs threw for over 5,000 yards. 3 did it last year...... either its a new NFL or 2011 was an outlier. Im not sure comparing passing data from the past is really an accurate way of comparing QBs. If Luck, RGIII, or some other QB throws over 20TDs this year.... then what? You also forgot to add Andy Dalton to your list of QBs throwing for 20 TDs. http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/14012/andy-dalton

2 rookies did it last year alone..... I don't buy your argument one bit bra.

 
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'solorca said:
'MrSoup said:
Fantasy stats aside, I watched every Panthers game last year, and the Panthers did lose a handful of games directly because of Cam. But hey, those are the growing pains a rookie with no training camp has to endure. I'm betting the Panthers make the playoffs this year though, as I suspect Cam will start the understand the importance of turn-over free football. Especially in the 4th quarter. He's a straight baller when it comes down to it. A force to be reckoned with. The majority project a decrease in rushing TDs this year, but I'm one of the few that predict equal or greater rushing statistics in 2012.
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I would agree that Cam lost the Panthers a couple of games,

but they also won six because of him. As a Panthers homer, I hated the pick when it happened and had a lot of the same concerns that have been brought up in this thread about his head, his maturity, etc. Within his first few weeks with the team however, my opinion on him changed as he showed a level of leadership through the way he handled himself in practice (I tend to go to a number of training camp sessions), in the media, and through his on-field leadership. In fact, the only thing I worry about with Cam is that he is TOO hard on himself, as when the Panthers lose, he gets really frustrated and upset with himself. The thing about that however, is that it reminds me a lot of a number of great players like Michael Jordan, Peyton Manning, etc. who refuse to accept a lose. What I've noticed is that every time he fails, he makes an effort to work harder to get better, and I love that about him.The regression in his numbers in the second half of the season are a bit concerning from a fantasy standpoint, I suppose, but it's worth noting that the level of competition was worse during the last portion of the year (especially toward the very end)...which happened to coincide with the team getting really comfortable with each other. There wasn't a need to pass a ton when they were going up 28-0 in the first half of a game.
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Which games did Cam lose? They had a top 5 offense and a horrible defense. Cam wasnt the problem last year.
 
'MAC_32 said:
A step in the right direction

Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton said he was a bad teammate during his rookie season. 'I was very immature,' Newton said after losses. 'I'll be the first one to tell you, the pouting and the moping, I kind of overdid it. I know that. I was a bad teammate. I shut off to some people who gave unbelievable effort ... That's where I have to mature.' His teammates, however, feel Newton just has to trust them more. 'Cam was angry because he thought he could and should make every play,' WR Steve Smith said. 'He has to realize you can't do it all yourself. It's like when someone drops a touchdown pass at the end of a close game. You can say that play cost the team a chance to win the game, but it didn't cause the team to lose.'
Click to expand...
Talk is cheap though, he needs to actually do it and not just say it. His maturity issues are why I'm holding back from him, him coming out and saying this does give me some reason for optimism but...there's no adversity in the off season. How will he handle adversity in season?
Click to expand...
What?Posts like this make me wonder if they even watched him at all last year.

 
'pantherclub said:
Which games did Cam lose? They had a top 5 offense and a horrible defense. Cam wasnt the problem last year.
Click to expand...
He lost the following games for them. Green Bay, ATL x2, Minnesota and Detroit....can't turn the ball over that much and win.

'pantherclub said:
'MAC_32 said:
His maturity issues are why I'm holding back from him, him coming out and saying this does give me some reason for optimism but...there's no adversity in the off season. How will he handle adversity in season?
Click to expand...
What? Posts like this make me wonder if they even watched him at all last year.
Click to expand...
Cam admits himself he is/was immature. Take the panther goggles off bro. :banned: http://search.nfl.com/search?query=cam+newton

 
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'ImTheScientist said:
Before last year only 2 QBs threw for over 5,000 yards. 3 did it last year...... either its a new NFL or 2011 was an outlier. Im not sure comparing passing data from the past is really an accurate way of comparing QBs. If Luck, RGIII, or some other QB throws over 20TDs this year.... then what? You also forgot to add Andy Dalton to your list of QBs throwing for 20 TDs.

http://espn.go.com/n...012/andy-dalton

2 rookies did it last year alone..... I don't buy your argument one bit bra.
Click to expand...
I said "before 2011"; obviously we can't know the outcome of Dalton's career yet. I wouldn't bet against him, either.
 
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